warr 4th iiasa titech technical meeting
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4th IIASA-TITECH Technical Meeting2nd –3rd May 2004, Vienna
An Elucidation of the Role of Institutional Systems in Characterizing Technology Development Trajectories
Robert Ayres and Benjamin WarrCenter for the Management of Environmental Resources (CMER)
INSEADBoulevard de Constance
Fontainebleau77300
http://benjamin.warr.free.fr
Exergy Efficiency and Economic Productivity: Historic Trends and Future Policy Guidelines -
A Tale of Four Countries.
Objectives
1. Historical trends in exergy use to provide useful work
2. Efficiency gains have driven growth, and must be maintained
3. Institutional activities4. Economic implications5. Environmental implications6. Future policy guidelines
Overview• Trends in fuel and work mix• Declining energy intensity of output• Increasing efficiency of conversion to
useful work• Future targets (efficiency and intensity)• Future economic growth• Future welfare (energy poverty)
– Role of useful work?– Role of new services?
Electricity• Increasing importance of electricity
as fraction of total work supply– See breakdown of exergy flows to
work– See breakdown of useful work
supplied• A wealth effect Japan is following
closely the US, however• Stagnating efficiency of conversion
of exergy to work
Electricity generation, exergy as % of total exergy consumptionUS 1960-1998
15%
25%
35%
45%
1960 1970 1980 1990
year
per
cen
tag
e (%
)France US Japan UK
Shift to non-fuel and industrial uses
Index of Electricity Output (1960=1)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1960 1970 1980 1990
year
ind
ex o
f el
ectr
icit
y o
utp
ut
(196
0=1)
JapanFranceUKUS
Electricity Output (PetaJoules)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1960 1970 1980 1990
year
exer
gy
(pJ)
US
Japan
France
UK
A wealth effect: see total exergy for electricity vs. GDP per capita
Total Fossil Fuels for Electricity production (pJ)vs GDP per capita
10000
100000
1000000
100 1000 10000
GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
Exer
gy
(pJ)
FranceJapanUKUS
US
FRANCE
UK
JAPAN
Hydroelectic electricity supply as a fraction of all renewable energy supplies,1960-1998
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
year
sect
or
fra
ctio
n (
%)
FranceJapanUKUSA
Nuclear electricity supply as a fraction of all renewable energy supplies, 1960-1998.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
year
sect
or
fra
ctio
n (
%)
FranceJapanUKUSA
Electricity, exergy as % of total exergy vs GDP per capita
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
100 1000 10000
GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
%
FranceJapanUKUS
US
FRANCE
UK
JAPAN
Average efficiency of electricity generation for all commercial energy sources
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
1960 1970 1980 1990
year
effi
cien
cy
Japan
France
UK
US
Red lines = 5yr moving averageSource: IEA , efficiency = output/input
Transport• Common trends in fuel mix trends
to supply transport work: • Overall efficiency trends:• Wealth trends:• Policy recommendations:
Transport, exergy as % of total exergy consumptionUS 1960-1998
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1960 1970 1980 1990
year
per
cen
tag
e (%
)France US Japan UK
Transport, exergy as % of total exergy vs GDP per capita
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
100 1000 10000
GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
%FranceJapanUKUS
US
FRANCE
UK
JAPAN
Total Fossil Fuels for Transport (pJ) vs GDP per capita
10000
100000
1000000
100 1000 10000
GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
Exer
gy
(pJ)
FranceJapanUKUS
US
FRANCE
UK
JAPAN
Transport Fuel Efficiencies, 1960-2000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
year
effi
cien
cy
Water (Inland)
Air (International)
Air (Domestic)
Road (EU)
Road (US)
Rail (Steam)
5% difference betweenshort and long-range
flights (Lee et al. 2001,Annual Rev. Energy
Env. )
or
longhaul consumes 1.6 times and shorthaul
2.7 times the fuelconsumed while
cruising (Babikian, 2001)
Rail (Diesel Electric)
Transport efficiency (all modes) (useful work / exergy), 1960-2000
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
year
effi
cien
cy
United Kingdom
Japan
European Union
France
United States
Industry• Japan is has a materials and fuel
intensive industrial sector (similar to US)
• Japan has fastest historical rate of dematerialisation
• This is concentrated in 4 major industries: textiles, minerals, metals and petrochemicals
• Reducing resource dependence of energy and materials intensive industries.
Non-fuel, exergy as % of total exergy consumptionUS 1960-1998
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1960 1970 1980 1990
year
per
cen
tag
e (%
)France US Japan UK
Non-fuel, exergy as % of total exergy vs GDP per capita
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
100.00 1000.00 10000.00
GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
%
FranceJapanUKUS
USFRANCE
UK
JAPAN
Total Fossil Fuels for Non-Fuel uses (pJ) vs GDP per capita
1000
10000
100000
100 1000 10000
GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
Exer
gy
(pJ)
FranceJapanUKUS
US
JAPAN
FRANCE
UK
Industrial (heat), exergy as % of total exergy consumptionUS 1960-1998
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
1960 1970 1980 1990
year
per
cen
tag
e (%
)France US Japan UK
Japan - Change in industry sector exergy mix, 1960-2000
-1.57%
0.05%
0.10%
0.07%
-0.06%
-0.13%
0.00%
-0.30%
-0.83%
-0.04%
-0.04%
-0.21%
-2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50%
Iron and Steel
Chemical and Petrochemical
Non-Ferrous Metals
Non-Metallic Minerals
Transport Equipment
Machinery
Mining and Quarrying
Food and Tobacco
Paper, Pulp and Printing
Wood and Wood Products
Construction
Textile and Leather
annual change
US - Change in industry sector exergy mix, 1960-2000
0.25%
0.12%
0.00%
0.02%
0.10%
0.12%
0.08%
-0.02%
-0.10%
0.00%
-0.04%
-0.21%
-2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50%
Iron and Steel
Chemical and Petrochemical
Non-Ferrous Metals
Non-Metallic Minerals
Transport Equipment
Machinery
Mining and Quarrying
Food and Tobacco
Paper, Pulp and Printing
Wood and Wood Products
Construction
Textile and Leather
annual change
Japan - Breakdown of total industry sector commercial fuel exergy consumption, 1960-2000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
frac
tion
of
tota
l
1960 26% 92% 8% 20% 0% 2% 3% 6% 4% 5% 33%
1970 26% 33% 3% 7% 1% 2% 1% 2% 3% 3% 6%
1980 25% 28% 3% 9% 1% 3% 0% 3% 4% 3% 3%
1990 19% 30% 3% 9% 2% 5% 0% 4% 8% 4% 3%
1998 17% 32% 3% 9% 2% 6% 0% 4% 7% 3% 2%
Iron and SteelChemical and Petrochemical
Non-Ferrous Metals
Non-Metallic Minerals
Transport Equipment
Machinery Mining and Quarrying
Food and Tobacco
Paper, Pulp and Printing
Wood and Wood Products
ConstructionTextile and
Leather
US - Breakdown of total industry sector commercial fuel exergy consumption, 1960-2000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
frac
tion
of to
tal
1960 16% 32% 0% 4% 4% 2% 0% 7% 14% 0% 0% 3%
1970 10% 25% 2% 3% 3% 2% 0% 5% 9% 0% 0% 2%
1980 7% 30% 3% 5% 2% 3% 0% 6% 10% 0% 0% 3%
1990 5% 39% 2% 7% 3% 7% 1% 8% 12% 1% 0% 3%
1998 8% 42% 4% 7% 2% 6% 1% 7% 10% 5% 0% 2%
Iron and SteelChemical and Petrochemical
Non-Ferrous Metals
Non-Metallic Minerals
Transport Equipment
Machinery Mining and Quarrying
Food and Tobacco
Paper, Pulp and Printing
Wood and Wood Products
ConstructionTextile and
Leather
Minerals and Metals exergy consumed / GDP , 1960-2000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1960 1970 1980 1990year
gJ
/ bill
ion
$ p
er c
apit
aJapan UK US France
Minerals and Metals exergy consumed / GDP per capita , 1960-2000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1960 1970 1980 1990year
gJ
/ bill
ion
$ p
er c
apit
aJapan UK US France
Industry, exergy as % of total exergy vs GDP per capita
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
100 1000 10000
GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
%
FranceJapanUKUS
US
FRANCE
UK
JAPAN
Total Fossil Fuels for Industry (pJ) vs GDP per capita
10000
100000
1000000
100 1000 10000
GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
Exer
gy
(pJ)
FranceJapanUKUS
US
FRANCE
UK
JAPAN
Residential/Commercial• Declining as a % of total up to
1975 then increasing• Income relationship varies greatly
from country to country for various reasons
• Japan outperforms the US, having lower total consumption for equal GDP per cap.
Residential (heat), exergy as % of total exergy consumptionUS 1960-1998
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1960 1970 1980 1990
year
per
cen
tag
e (%
)France US Japan UK
Residential and Commercial, exergy as % of total exergy vs GDP per capita
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
100 1000 10000
GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
%FranceJapanUKUS
US
FRANCE
UK
JAPAN
Total Fossil Fuels for Residential and Commercial (pJ) vs GDP per capita
1000
10000
100000
1000000
100 1000 10000
GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
Exer
gy
(pJ)
FranceJapanUKUS
US
FRANCE
UK
JAPAN
Labour OverviewAverage trends of hours worked and compensation per hour:
1960-2000 (average across 12 OECD countries)
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
year
ind
ex
hours workedcompensation
Source: US Dept. Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002.
Hourly rate of compensation index (1992=100): 1960-2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
year
ind
ex
France
Japan
UK
US
Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) International Labor
Growth in Labour Quality
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
year
del
ta[l
n(q
)]
JapanUS
Labour Services (1992 US Hours): 1960-2000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
year
serv
ice
leve
l
FranceJapanUKUS
Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) International Labor Statistics.
Aggregated Measures• The individual trends for each country
show– Increasing electricity (both)– Increasing transport (both since 1975)– Increasing residential (Japan only since
1970)– Decreasing residential heat (US only)– Decreasing industrial heat (both)– Exergy intensity declining until 1990 (Japan)– Exergy intensity decline since 1960 ongoing
(US)
Breakdown of exergy inputs into the economy by useUS 1960-1998
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
year
per
cen
tag
e (%
)ELECTRICITY (prime movers)
TRANSPORT (other prime movers)
HEAT (Industrial)
NON-FUEL
HEAT (Residential)
Fuel exergy consumption by sector: US, 1960-2000
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
year
ind
ex
Industry US
Transport US
Residential US
Commercial US
Agriculture US
Energy US
Energy Japan
Commercial and agricultural sectors for Japan out of range
Transport Japan
Residential Japan
Industry Japan
Breakdown of exergy inputs into the economy by useJapan 1960-1998
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
year
per
cen
tag
e (%
)ELECTRICITY (prime movers)
TRANSPORT (other prime movers)
HEAT (Industrial)
NON-FUEL
HEAT (Residential)
Fuel exergy consumption by sector: US, 1960-2000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
year
pJ
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Agriculture
Energy
Fuel exergy consumption by sector: Japan, 1960-2000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
year
pJ
Industry
Transport
Residential
Commercial
Agriculture
Energy
Environmental Kuznets Curve - Commercial Fuel Exergy (pJ)/ GDP per capita (million 90 US$ /millions)
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
year
exer
gy/
GD
PFrance Japan UK US
Aggregate conversion efficiency of commercial fuel exergy to useful work,1960-1998
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
year
per
cen
tag
e (%
)
France Germany Japan UK US
Non-weighted average of exergy to work conversion efficiencies, 1960-1998
15%
20%
25%
1960 1970 1980 1990
year
per
cen
tag
e (%
)
France Japan UK US
Drop in efficiency of electricityconversion efficiency
g = 1/f*(R/GDP), 1960-1998
0.013
0.018
0.023
0.028
1960 1970 1980 1990
year
g (
econ
om
ic o
utp
ut/
work
in
pu
t)France Japan UK US
Marginal Productivity of Labour (from LINEX estimates)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Lin
ex p
aram
eter
a*(
(Lab
ou
r+E
xerg
y S
ervi
ces)
/Cap
ital
)
USUKFranceJapan
Marginal Productivity of Useful Work (from LINEX estimates)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
1-al
ph
a-b
eta
USUKFranceJapan
Estimates of GDP, Japan 1960-2000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993
ou
tpu
t (1
960=
1)YLINEXTime Dependent CDTime Average CD
Estimates of GDP, US 1960-2000
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993
ou
tpu
t (1
960=
1)YLINEXTime Dependent CDTime Average CD
Estimates of GDP, UK 1960-2000
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993
ou
tpu
t (1
960=
1)YLINEXTime Dependent CDTime Average CD
Estimates of GDP, France 1960-2000
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993
ou
tpu
t (1
960=
1)YLINEXTime Dependent CDTime Average CD
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
Y
LINEX
TimeDependentCDTimeAverage CD
If a reduced to 0.01, bheld constant.
All estimates coincide.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
Y
LINEX
Time DependentCD
Time Average CD
If a increased to 1, bheld constant.
Estimates diverge.
The b parameter controls the slope, as it increases so the rate of
predicted output increases.
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