weather forecasting assignment

• Weather Forecasting Assignment• For more information please see the links under

today’s date on our class webpage

Astrology and Horoscopes

• Astrology is the study of how the planets and stars affect human affairs.

• A horoscope consists of a geocentric map of the solar system at a given moment in time based on a person’s date, time, and place of birth.

Astrology and Horoscopes

• The calculations involved in constructing a horoscope are based on geocentric models of the solar system (i.e., earth is at the center).

• The interpretation of horoscopes is based on oral and written wisdom passed down across generations by respected astrologers.

• Many of the modern horoscopes that we are familiar with are highly simplified versions based on a person’s zodiac sign (e.g., Aquarius, Leo, Capricorn).

How do these methods fare?

• How do astrological methods compare with those discussed in this course?

• What would it take to establish the validity of an astrological theory?

• Are these methods (or the evidence derived from them) part of what is advertised?

Testing Astrology

• What would it take to test astrological principles?

Testing Astrology

• What would it take to test astrological principles?

– Different astrologers drawing upon the same framework should make similar predictions.

– The person types based on the Zodiac should be accurate (Aries: high extraversion; Gemini: high extraversion, high agreeableness; Pisces: high openness).

– Horoscope should be correct, within reason.

How accurate are horoscopes?

• Horoscope class exercise

True

AQUARIUS (Jan. 20-Feb. 18):

Tension creeps into the workday, but you can turn it around by spending quality time in the open air (which brings fresh ideas your way that will make money later in the year). Tonight, tell a loved one what he or she wants to hear.

PISCES (Feb. 19-March 20):

There are two ways to get energy moving forward in your career now. No. 1: Forget about who did what to whom, and start new. No. 2: Call around before you make any costly decisions. You make allies by asking for help.

False

AQUARIUS (Jan. 20-Feb. 18):

There are two ways to get energy moving forward in your career now. No. 1: Forget about who did what to whom, and start new. No. 2: Call around before you make any costly decisions. You make allies by asking for help.

PISCES (Feb. 19-March 20):

Tension creeps into the workday, but you can turn it around by spending quality time in the open air (which brings fresh ideas your way that will make money later in the year). Tonight, tell a loved one what he or she wants to hear.

15 10

14 11

ValidNot Valid

True

FalseType

of h

oros

cope

Validity of Horoscope

40%

44%

These two “it felt valid” rates are fairly similar

• For the purposes of discussion, we’ll focus today on the personality and health information you provided as part of your homework for today’s class.

• We’ll examine whether – (a) certain characteristics (e.g., extraversion,

subjective well-being, physical health) vary as a function of sign and

– (b) whether these characteristics vary in some of the ways that have been hypothesized by certain astrologers.

Just a reminder…

• Aquarius - January 21 - February 19Pisces - February 20- March 20Aries - March 21 - April 20Taurus - April 21 - May 21Gemini - May 22 - June 21Cancer - June 22 - July 22Leo - July 23 -August 21Virgo - August 22 - September 23Libra - September 24 - October 23Scorpio - October 24 - November 22Sagittarius - November 23 - December 22Capricorn - December 23 - January 20

• The data are based on the personality ratings provided by 130 students who have participated in this exercise over the past few years.

-2-1

01

2

Ext

rave

rsio

n

AquariusAries CancerCapricornGemini Leo Libra PiscesSagittariusScorpioTaurus Virgo

Sign

-2-1

01

2

Neu

rotic

ism

AquariusAries CancerCapricornGemini Leo Libra PiscesSagittariusScorpioTaurus Virgo

Sign

-2-1

01

2

Con

scie

ntio

usne

ss

AquariusAries CancerCapricornGemini Leo Libra PiscesSagittariusScorpioTaurus Virgo

Sign

-2-1

01

2

Ope

nnes

s

AquariusAries CancerCapricornGemini Leo Libra PiscesSagittariusScorpioTaurus Virgo

Sign

-3-2

-10

12

Agr

eeab

lene

ss

AquariusAries CancerCapricornGemini Leo Libra PiscesSagittariusScorpioTaurus Virgo

Sign

-3-2

-10

1

Life

Sat

isfa

ctio

n

AquariusAries CancerCapricornGemini Leo Libra PiscesSagittariusScorpioTaurus Virgo

Sign

-20

24

Phy

sica

l Hea

lth 1

AquariusAries CancerCapricornGemini Leo Libra PiscesSagittariusScorpioTaurus Virgo

Sign

-2-1

01

23

Phy

sica

l Hea

lth 2

AquariusAries CancerCapricornGemini Leo Libra PiscesSagittariusScorpioTaurus Virgo

Sign

Specific Predictions

• Aries: Extraverted• Taurus: Agreeable• Gemini: Kind of Open• Cancer: Agreeable, Open• Leo: Open, Disagreeable• Virgo: Open and Disagreeable (critical thinkers)• Libra: Introverted• Scorpio: Disagreeable• Sagittarius: Open and Agreeable• Capricorn: Conscientious • Aquarius: Open and Introverted• Pisces: Agreeable, not conscientious

• from http://www.buzzle.com/articles/personality-characteristics-of-signs-of-zodiac.html

Aries: ExtravertedLibra: Introverted

-2-1

01

2

Ext

rave

rsio

n

Aquarius Aries CancerCapricornGemini Leo Libra PiscesSagittariusScorpioTaurus Virgo

Sign

-2-1

01

2

Con

scie

ntio

usne

ss

AquariusAries CancerCapricornGemini Leo Libra PiscesSagittariusScorpioTaurus Virgo

Sign

•Capricorn: Conscientious

-2-1

01

2

Ope

nnes

s

AquariusAries CancerCapricornGemini Leo Libra PiscesSagittariusScorpioTaurus Virgo

SignGemini: Kind of OpenLeo: Open, DisagreeableVirgo: Open and Disagreeable (critical thinkers)Sagittarius: Open and AgreeableAquarius: Open and Introverted

-3-2

-10

12

Agr

eeab

lene

ss

AquariusAries CancerCapricornGemini Leo Libra PiscesSagittariusScorpioTaurus Virgo

SignTaurus: AgreeableCancer: Agreeable, OpenScorpio: DisagreeablePisces: Agreeable, not conscientious