what is the current and future significance of the natural resource economy?
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7/31/2019 What is the current and future significance of the natural resource economy?
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What is the current and future significance of the
natural resource economy?Independent and objective evidence-based applied research on public policy issues t
impacts the economic and social development of New Brunswick and Atlantic Cana
Marc Duhamelmarc.duhamel@umoncton.caTwitter: @marc_duhamel
FORUMeJune 5, 2012
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Source: CIRPPPA, Wor
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Emerging countries are driving the glob
natural resource economy
Source: CIRPPPA, W
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7/31/2019 What is the current and future significance of the natural resource economy?
5/20Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International
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International investments flowing int
Canadas energy and minerals industr
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Why should we care?Why natural resources are important to Atlantic Canad
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Prosperity growth has been relatively
Atlantic Canada over the last dec
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Projected decline in population aged 15
Source: Statist
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Labor productivity explains
differences in GDP per capitaNL
PEI
NS
NB
GDP per capita $2010! 55,307$! 35,216$! 38,570$! 39,172$!
$! %! $! %! $! %! $! %!GDP per capita gapwith Canada, $2010! 7,676$# 100%# -12,415$! 100%# -9,061$! 100%# -8,458$! 100%# -7,2
Source of GDP per capita Gap with Canada, 2010!Labour Productivity! 15,673$! 204%! -11,817$# 95%! -8,245$# 91%! -7,989$# 94%! -4Labour Intensity! 2,636$# 34%# 813$# -7%# 519$# -6%# 2,001$# -24%# -1Employment Rate! -11,072$# -144%# -668$# 5%# -1,160$# 13%# -2,257$# 27%# -1Demographicprofile! 440$# 6%# -742$# 6%# -174$# 2%# -214$# 3%#
Source: CIRPPPA, Statistics Canada#
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Minerals, oil & gas is creating
have and have not provinc
$ 363.10
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Economic potential of
natural gas from shale is realArkansas 2009 New
Total estimated reserves (Tcf) 31.96(a)Rights holders 9 Natural gas from Shale Production (Bcf) 527(a)Average Price Henry Hub (USD/mmBTU) $3.95(a)Direct Economic Impacts
Direct economic impact per job $514,218(b)Direct economic impact (% GDP) 2.34%
Direct employment impact (% Employment) 0.40%Total Impact Factors
Total economic impact per job $291,484(b)Total economic impact (%GDP) 3.37%
Total employment impact (% Employment) 1.10%Total economic impact factor 1.44(b)
Total employment impact factor 2.54(b)Sources: #(a) U.S. Energy Information Administration#(b) Center for Business and Economic Research, Sam M. Walton College ofBusiness, University of Arkansas, 2008#
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Policy implications for New BrunswThinking fast and slow about natural gas from shale?
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Thinking fast
Source: BBC World Service, Fukushima Daiichi Reactor 3, Japan, March 2011
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economics is not driving policy developm
Source: Leonard, A. (2012), Status of Shale Gas Development in New Brunswick, CAPP, February 9.
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Source: Public Policy Resarch Lab, Manship School of Mass Communication, Louisiana State University, May 2012
Support for fracking
and hydraulic fracturing
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0.1
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0.5
0.6
Very Safe or
Somewhat Safe
State should
encourage
With the 8- or 10-letter F word Without
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The root of it is fracture, and that's just not a very po
thing. Whether there's a fracture in a political party, or
fracture your arm, it's just nothing but negative
connotations. - , Founder and CEO, Lexicon Branding
Trust, a question of branding?
Thi ki l * b t th i ifi f
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Thinking slow* about the significance of
future policy optionsWill provinces in Atlantic Canada be able to affordtheir policy ch
What is the opportunity cost of a moratorium? Can natural gas from shale meet the needs of the present w
compromising the ability of future generations to meet their ow
What is the evidence-base of the expected policy outcomes? Economic prospects, intergenerational, labor, migration and fiscal outcomes Environmental risks and technological opportunities Effectiveness of legal and regulatory frameworks Public health, social, and First Nations policy issues
*
Kahneman, D. (2011)
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