wheat market overview · 2017-10-23 · hard red spring australia (asw & apw) protein content...

Wheat Market Overview

Shawn CampbellDeputy DirectorUSW-Portland

Columbia River Grain Exports (June-May)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TMT

Other

Soybeans

Corn

Wheat

Pacific Wheat Export Sales 10/5/17

Export SalesHRW: 1.8 MMT (+2%)HRS: 2.9 MMT (+3%)SW: 2.9 MMT (+39%)Total: 7.7 MMT (+14%)

Pacific Wheat Export Sales 10/5/17North Asia

HRW: 0.9 MMT (+2%)HRS: 1.6 MMT (+16%)SW: 1.2 MMT (+60%)Total: 3.7 MMT (+23%)

Latin AmericaHRW: 0.3 MMT (-44%)HRS: 0.1 MMT (-8%)SW: 0.2 MMT (+81%)Total: 0.6 MMT (-21%)

South AsiaHRW: 0.6 MMT (+61%)HRS: 1.2 MMT (-10%)SW: 1.4 MMT (+20%)Total: 3.2 MMT (+11%)

Middle EastSW: 0.2 MMT (+43%)Total: 0.2 MMT (+43%)

Pacific Wheat Export Sales 10/5/17

Pacific Wheat Exports Over Time

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thou

sand

Met

ric T

onne

s

10 Year Trend+102.9 TMT per year

U.S. Wheat Exports Over Time

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Thou

sand

Met

ric T

onne

s

10 Year Trend-630.6 TMT per year

U.S. Wheat Production and Area

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

65000

70000

75000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Production (TMT)

Area (1000 Acres)

Linear (Production (TMT))

Linear (Area (1000 Acres))

10 Year Trend-726.8 TMT per year

-1133.4 thousand acres per year

Pacific 5 State Production and Area

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

24000

26000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Production (TMT)

Area (1000 Acres)

Linear (Production (TMT))

Linear (Area (1000 Acres))

10 Year Trend-22.0 TMT per year

-233.5 thousand acres per year

10 Year Growth Trend Top 7 Exporters

Argentina+0.1 MMT

USA-0.6 MMT

Canada+0.5 MMT

Australia+0.8 MMT

EU+1.5 MMT

Ukraine+1.2 MMT

Russia+1.7 MMT

Why Pacific Exports Are Holding Up

Why Pacific Exports Are Holding Up

15

14

13

12

11

10

9

Arge

ntin

a

Fran

ce

Danu

be

Hard

Red

Spr

ing

Aust

ralia

(ASW

& A

PW)

Prot

ein

Cont

ent

Relative Exportable SurplusHa

rd R

ed W

inte

r

Cana

da (C

PS &

CW

RW)

Kaza

khst

an

Aust

ralia

(AH

& A

PH)

Cana

da (C

WRS

)

Ukr

aine G

erm

any

Balti

c Se

a

Russ

ia

Soft

Whi

te

Soft

Red

Win

ter

Cana

da (C

E &

CW

SWS)

Why Pacific Exports Are Holding Up

75% of U.S. Pacific wheat exports are on the outer edges

of the spectrum.

Why Pacific Exports Are Holding UpRaising wheat with

high quality and marketable value.

Market transparency and

education.

Technical training, troubleshooting,

and support.

Why Pacific Exports Are Holding UpDiscerning

customers with the income to get what

they want.

Cleaning wheat to a 0.3 percent

dockage level.

Chemical residue testing and strict

sanitary and phytosanitary restrictions.

Questions?