workshop on “energy, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios”
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Workshop on “Energy, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change
scenarios”
(29-30 June 2004, EEA, Copenhagen)
PRIMES model results
Scenarios examined: LREM baseline scenario CAFÉ-KR scenario plus high and low effort variants Sustainable emission pathway scenario (SEP) Addressing the role of renewables
Renewables scenario (REN) Sustainable emission pathway scenario combined with
renewables scenario (SER) Sustainable emission pathway scenario combined with
renewables scenario with revised permit prices (RES) Addressing the role of economic development
Low economic growth scenario (LGC) Sustainable emission pathway scenario combined with the low
growth scenario (LGS)
SEP and the role of renewables
Permit prices and subsidies on renewable electricity by case examined
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030SEP 7 12 20 30 50 65
REN 0 0 0 0 0 0
SER 7 12 20 30 50 65
RES 7 10 16 24 41 49
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030SEP 0 0 0 0 0 0
REN 0 12 18 24 30 45
SER 0 12 18 24 30 45
RES 0 12 18 24 30 45
Subsidy required
Marginal abatement cost or permit price
(Eur'00 per t of CO2)
mills per KWhe from renewable energy forms
Gross inland consumption
7 15 12
-22
-72
-133
-17
-57
-107-147
-34
-89
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030
SEP REN SER RES
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Total
Mtoe (change from Baseline levels)
Renewables share in GIC (%)
11.57
15.88
21.15
11.72
16.25
21.48
11.08
14.79
19.77
13.28
10.90
8.028.65
7.44 8.01
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
17.0
19.0
21.0
23.0
25.0
2010 2020 2030
REN SEP
RES Baseline
SER
% of GIC
Demand siderenewables include biofuels used as ingredient in gasoline and diesel oil
-18.5
-45.3
-83.2
-104.0
-54.7
-22.0
-105.7
-61.1
-21.9
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030
SEP REN SER RES
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Steam
Renewables
Total
Mtoe (change from Baseline levels)
Power generation
-115
-267
-17-92
-210-99
-22-36-11
-17
-73-189
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030
SEP REN SER RES
NuclearSolidsGasOther renewablesWindBiomass/wasteTotal
TWh (change from baseline levels)
Renewables share in power generation (%)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Baseline 14.0 16.3 16.5 16.4 16.9 17.2
SEP 14.6 17.1 18.5 20.7 24.0 26.3
REN 13.9 19.2 23.1 27.1 30.3 34.7
SER 14.6 21.3 24.9 29.2 32.4 36.9
RES 14.6 21.1 24.7 28.8 32.2 36.4
Renewables in power generation (%)
Changes in installed capacity
5 9
20
9
34
55
16
36 39
16
33
49
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030
SEP REN SER RES
Advanced coal Gas fired Nuclear Conv. thermalFuel cells Hydro and other Wind Total
GW installed (change from baseline levels)
Average electricity tariff
0.71.8 2.3
4.2
7.8
2.73.7
6.9
21.6
2.7
4.2
7.2
10.8
16.0
18.7
2.7
4.4
8.1
13.0
19.2
25.3
16.6
11.1
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
REN RES SEP SER
diff. from Baseline in mills per KWh
CO2 emissions
-154
-492
-958
-169
-333
-563
-316
-761
-1320
-290
-684
-1222
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030
SEP REN SER RES
Demand side
Supply side
Total
Mt of CO2 (change from Baseline levels)
CO2 emissions – Difference from 1990 levels (%)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Baseline -2.3 -0.3 1.9 7.2 10.3 14.2
SEP -4.3 -4.4 -5.7 -5.9 -9.3 -11.2
REN -3.1 -4.8 -4.3 -1.6 -1.3 -0.8
SER -5.0 -8.7 -10.6 -13.0 -17.4 -20.8
RES -5.0 -8.0 -9.7 -11.0 -15.6 -18.2
CO2 emissions - % change from 1990 levels
Low economic growth scenarios
Key indicators
Low growth case + SEP Low growth case
-12.4
-7.2
-17.1
-7.6
-17.3
-30.8
-17.8
-11.1
-5.6
-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
2010 2020 2030
GDPCO2 emissionsPrimary Energy demand
-12.4
-17.1
-7.2
-13.2
-9.7
-5.4
-11.6
-8.1
-4.6
-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
2010 2020 2030
Gross inland consumption
-82
-154
-228
-100
-209
-350
-147
-34
-89
-400
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030
SEP LGC LGS
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Total
Mtoe (change from Baseline levels)
CO2 emissions - Difference from 1990 levels (%)
-151
-467
-953
-205
-391
-570
-286
-698
-1327
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030
SEP LGC LGS
Demand side
Supply side
Total
Mt of CO2 (change from Baseline levels)
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