world lng report-2018 -industry trends- · source: ihs, company announcements source: ihs, public...

2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union

World LNG Report-2018

-industry trends-

Satoshi Yoshida

General Manager, International Section,

Policy and Planning Department

Japan Gas Association

2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union

International Gas Union (IGU)

✓ Founded in 1931, Represents More Than 160 Member Organizations and

Corporations of the Global Natural Gas Industry from 90 countries

✓ Represents over 97% of Global Natural Gas Market

✓ Objectives: To Serve“As the Global Voice of Gas” and

“Seeks to Improve the Quality of Life by Advancing Gas as a Key

Contributor to a Sustainable Energy Future.”

Who we are…

2

2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union

IGU Publications2018✓ 2018 World LNG Report

✓ Whole Gas Price Survey, 2018 Edition

✓ Case study in Improving Urban Air Quality – Third Edition, March 2018

✓ Best Practices in Governance and Regulation

✓ The Importance of Methane Emissions Mitigation

✓ Social License to Operate: Case Studies

✓ Natural Gas – Fuel of choice towards clean mobility

✓ Gas People Index 2018. Workforce Development Taskforce Report

✓ Natural Gas: the essential fuel for industry in a sustainable future

and more…………………..

2017✓ The Natural Gas Industry Methane Emissions Challenge

✓ Understanding Methane’s Impact on Climate Change

✓ IGU Wholesale Gas Price Report 2017

✓ Natural Gas Global Insights – 2017 Edition

✓ IGU World LNG Report

✓ Enabling Clear Marine transportation, March 2017

and more…………………..

2016✓ Global Gas Markets Supporting Growth and Sustainability

✓ Case Studies Improving Air Quality, Second edition (European cities), November 2016

✓ IGU Wholesale Gas Price Survey, May 2016

✓ Case studies Enabling Clean Energies, April 2016

✓ IGU World LNG Report, April 2016

and more………………….

3

2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union

2018 World LNG Report

Contents;

✓ LNG Trade

✓ Liquefaction Plants

✓ LNG Carriers (Shipping)

✓ LNG Receiving Terminals

✓ FLNG

✓ Looking Ahead

✓ Appendix

To download the full report visit; www. igu.org.

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2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union

LNG Supply in 2017

3.7

0.3 0.0

-0.4

11.9

1.50.7 0.3

-0.4

2.9 2.80.8 0.3 0.20.2 0.10.3

-0.2

10.2

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Au

stra

lia,

56.2

US,

13.1

Qa

tar,

81

An

go

la, 3.7

Nig

eria

, 21

.3

Ma

laysi

a,

26.4

Alg

eria

, 12

.4

Bru

ne

i, 7

PN

G,

7.7

Ru

ssia

, 1

1.1

Om

an

, 8

.4

Eg

yp

t, 0

.8

Trin

ida

d,

10.8

Eq

. G

uin

ea

, 3.6

Pe

ru, 4

.1

Ye

me

n,

0

No

rwa

y, 4.1

Ind

on

esi

a, 16

.2

UA

E,

5.2

MTP

A

North America Europe FSU Latin America

• LNG supply grew 35.2 MT in 2017 and reached 293.1 MT.

• This increase was driven by higher production in Australia and US

Source: IHS, IGU

Wheatstne LNG – Courtesy Chevron

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2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union

LNG Demand in 2017• LNG demand reached 293.1 MT.

• China accounted for over one-third of net demand growth, rising by 12.7 MTby a strong enforcement of environmental policy

-1.1

12.7

2.41.5

4.9

1.81.1 1.0 0.3

2.3 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.50.6 0.5 0.4 0.3

-2.5

0.3 0.2

-0.3-0.4

1.1 0.4

-0.7

0.8 0.3

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Chin

a,

39

.5

S.

Ko

rea,

38

.6

Pa

kis

tan

, 5

.1

Sp

ain

, 1

2.2

Turk

ey, 7.8

Fra

nce, 7

.6

Taiw

an

, 1

6.8

India

, 20

.7

Po

rtug

al, 2

.8

Ita

ly, 6

Ja

pa

n, 8

4.5

Ku

wait,

4.3

Tha

iland

, 3

.9

Mexic

o,

4.9

Gre

ece,

1.1

Po

lan

d,

1.3

Jo

rdan

, 3

.4

Neth

erlan

ds,

0.8

Bra

zil,

1.5

Mala

ysia

, 1

.4

Oth

er

, 10

.2

Malta

, 0

.3

Dom

. R

ep.,

1

Pu

ert

o R

ico, 1

Arg

en

tina

, 3.2

UA

E,

2.2

Eg

ypt,

6.2

UK

, 4.9

MT

PA

Africa Asia Asia-Pacific Europe

Source: IHS, IGU

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2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union

LNG Exports by Region

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

MT

PA

North America

Europe

FSU

Latin America

Africa

Asia Pacific

Middle East

Note: FSU = Former Soviet Union

Source: IHS, IGU

• Asia Pacific region is still leading LNG export adding another 14MT totalling 113.5MT in 2017.

• The Middle East remained the clear second-place.

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2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union

Price and “non-long term” trade

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015

% S

hare

MTP

A

Non Long-Term Trade

% of Total LNG Trade(right axis)

0

5

10

15

20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$/m

mB

tu

US (Henry Hub) UK (NBP)

German Border Price Japan (based on LNG)

NE Asia Spot Price

Source: IHS, Cedigaz, US DOE

Source: IHS, IGU

• Seasonal tightness in the global LNG market is very possible..

• Non long-term trade accounted for 30% of total gross LNG trade.

Monthly Average Regional Gas Prices, 2010-Jan.2018 Non Long-Term Volumes, 1995-2017

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2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union

0

100

200

300

400

500

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

MT

PA

Other Qatar Australia United States

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

MT

PA

Global Liquefaction Capacity% of Capacity Utilised (right axis)

Fo

recast

Liquefaction

Source: IHS, Public AnnouncementsSource: IHS, Company Announcements

• Global capacity utilisation was 84%, up 2% from 2016

• From 2017 to 2023, it is forecast to increase by 28% to 460 MTPA largely thanks to the contribution of US capacity increase

84% 360

460

Global Liquefaction Capacity Build-Out / Capacity Utilization Post-FID Liquefaction Capacity Build-Out 2017-2023

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2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union

New Markets

Source: IHS, IGU, Public Announcements FSRU CHALLENGER – Courtesy MOL

• 45 MTPA was constructed in 2017 and reached 851MTPA.

• FSRUs have played a larger role in allowing new markets to access LNG supply.

Global Receiving Terminal Capacity, 2000-2023

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2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union

Shipping

Source: HIS Markit

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

# o

f vessels

Vessels delivered (right) Steam DFDE/TFDE

$'0

00/d

ay

• Global fleet added 24 vessels to reach 434

• Order book grew by 14, 4 of which were FSRUs.

• Charter rates averaged near-term low of $27k/day for ST and $44k/day for TFDE & DFDE.

Average LNG Spot Charter Rates versus Vessel Deliveries, 2012-2017

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2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union

Shipping Routes

LNG Venus – Osaka Gas

Major LNG Shipping Routes, 2017

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2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union

Looking Ahead

The LNG Industry in Years Ahead

✓How Will LNG Markets Balance in 2018?

✓Will LNG Contracting and Liquefaction FIDs Take Shape This Year?

✓Could Demand in Mature Asian Markets Surprise to the Upside Again?

✓What Strategies Will Be Used to Address Emerging Markets?

✓What New Markets Will Begin Imports in 2018?

✓Will the Global LNG Market Move More Toward Commoditization or Consolidation?

✓・・・・・・

✓・・・・

✓・・

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2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union

Members of World LNG Report Task Force 2018

• Chevron, USA

• American Gas Association , USA

• Anadarko, USA

• Bureau Veritas, France

• Enagás, Spain

• ENH, Cameroon

• Gas Natural Fenosa, Spain

• GIIGNL, France

• KOGAS, South Korea

• Osaka Gas, Japan

• Toho Gas, Japan

Consultant – IHS Market

to download visit; www. igu.org14

2018 Japan Gas Association2018 International Gas Union

The Japan Gas Association

Thank you

Satoshi YoshidaGeneral Manager,

International Relations, Policy and Planning Department

Japan Gas Association (Charter member of IGU)

yoshida.satoshi@gas.or.jp