world wheat supply and demand situation · 2019-08-12 · supply and demand. highlights of usda’s...
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Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates released August 12, 2019, unless otherwise indicated. Projections will change over the course of the year
depending on weather and other developments.
World Wheat Supply and
Demand Situation
August 2019
Supply and Demand
Highlights of USDA’s 2019/20 Supply and Demand Estimates
• 2019/20 global wheat production to jump to all-time high of 768 MMT• Wheat production in the European Union (EU) to rebound to 150 MMT, 9% higher than last year• Russian production forecast at 73.0 MMT, 2% higher than 2018/19 levels• U.S. wheat production to jump 5% above 2018/19 levels to 53.9 MMT in 2019/20
• Global consumption forecast at 758 MMT, the highest on record• China’s domestic consumption to reach 128 MMT, 2% above last year, if realized• EU domestic consumption to reach 127 MMT, up 3% from 2018/19 • U.S. domestic consumption to total 32.6 MMT, up 5% from the 5-year average• U.S. feed wheat consumption to reach 4.63 MMT, 43% higher than 2018/19 levels
• World wheat trade to jump 5% year-over-year to 183 MMT, 4% above the 5-year average of 175 MMT
• Exports from the EU to increase 12% over last year to 26.5 MMT in 2019/20• Exports from Russia to fall 5% from last year to 34.0 MMT• U.S. 2019/20 exports to increase 4% above 2018/19 levels to 26.5 MMT
Supply and Demand
Highlights of USDA’s 2019/20 Supply and Demand Estimates
• World beginning stocks fell 2% year-over-year to 275 MMT, still 13% higher than the 5-year average of 241 MMT
• China’s 2019/20 beginning stocks jumped 6% over 2018/19 levels to 140 MMT• U.S. beginning stocks estimated at 29.2 MMT, 2% lower than last year but 16% higher than the
5-year average
• Global ending stocks projected at 285 MMT, 4% higher than last year and 11% higher than the 5-year average
• Estimated Chinese ending stocks of 146 MMT are up 4% from last year and account for 51% of total global ending stocks
• U.S. ending stocks are expected to total 27.6 MMT, down 6% from 2018/19 and in line with the 5-year average
• U.S. farm gate average price to fall 3% from 2018/19• Projected average farm gate price to fall to $5.00/bu* ($184/MT) from last year’s average of
$5.16/bu ($190/MT)
*Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average
Supply and Demand
World Production and Use
762
731
768
743736
758
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
MM
T
Production Use
Supply and Demand
Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*
*Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
63 72 72 61
395 367 394
468440 455
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500M
MT
Beginning Stocks Production
Supply and Demand
World Wheat Supply and Demand (MMT)
17/18 18/19 19/20SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks 262 281 275
Production 762 731 768Supply Total 1024 1012 1044Ending Stocks 281 275 285
TRADE: Exports/Imports 182 174 183
DEMAND: Food & Seed 596 596 608Feed & Residual 146 140 150Use Total 743 736 758
Supply and Demand
World Beginning Stocks
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
56 56 50
21 2115
70 7371
115131
140
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China
Supply and Demand
Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio
*Ending stocks
38 37 38
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
Perc
ent
Supply and Demand
Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio w/o China
*Ending stocks
2422 22
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
Perc
ent
Supply and Demand
World Ending Stocks
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
56 50 51
2115 14
7371 75
131140 146
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MM
T
5 Major Exporters Black Sea Other China
Supply and Demand
World Ending Stocks by Position(MMT)
Exporters, 64.8
Importers, 74.6
China, 146
Supply and Demand
Global Ending Stocks and Price
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, August 9, 2019
56 50 51
21 15 14
204 211221
214 223 219
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
$US/
MT
MM
T
Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW Price*
Major ExportersImport DemandU.S. Situation by ClassOutlook
Exportable Supplies in Top Exporting Countries
*Exportable Supplies = (Beginning Stocks + Production) – Domestic Consumption
50 51 50
19 17 21
5343 41
1110 8
31
28 32
27
29 29
19
14 17
13
1416
0
50
100
150
200
250
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
ArgentinaAustraliaCanadaEU-25KazakhstanRussiaUkraineU.S.
Canada Situation
6.9 5.9 4.7
30.0 31.8 33.3
22.0
24.5 24.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Canada Ending Stocks
5.9
4.75.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MM
T
Australia Situation
5.7 5.5 5.0
20.9 17.3
21.0
13.8
9.012.5
7.5 9.2 8.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Australia Ending Stocks
5.55.0 5.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MM
T
Argentina Situation
0.2 0.6 1.4
18.519.5
20.5
12.713.0
14.5
5.5 5.8 5.9
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Argentina Ending Stocks
0.6
1.41.6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MM
T
EU- 28 Situation
10.7 14.0 9.7
151137
150
23.323.6 26.5
130123 128
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
EU-28 Ending Stocks
14.0
9.711.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MM
T
Russia Situation
10.8 12.0 8.0
85
72 73
41.435.7 34.0
43.040.5 40.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Russia Ending Stocks
12.0
8.07.5
0
5
10
15
20
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MM
T
Black Sea Region Situation
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
21.0 20.7 14.8
142124
131
69.161.3 60.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Black Sea Exports
41.435.7 34.0
17.8
16.2 19.5
9.0
8.5 6.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
Black Sea Ending Stocks
20.7
14.814.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MM
T
U.S. Situation
32.1 29.9 29.2
47.451.3 53.9
24.7 25.5 26.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use
U.S. Ending Stocks
29.9 29.227.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
Major Exporters
Import DemandU.S. Situation by ClassOutlook
Major World Wheat Importers(from all origins)
0123456789
10111213
MM
T
2018/19 2019/20
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat
5-year average
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
MM
T
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of August 1, 2019
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat
Year-to-date
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
MM
T
2018/19 2019/20
World Wheat Imports
Trend in “other” importers denoted ( )
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
"Other" China FSU EU-28
Major ExportersImport Demand
U.S. Situation by ClassOutlook
U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class
*Source: USDA Acreage Report, June 28, 2019
23.8 23.2 22.7
5.61 5.85 5.54
4.02 4.12 3.55
2.31 2.00 1.40
10.312.1 12.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Mill
ion
Acre
s
HRW SRW White Durum HRS
U.S. Wheat Sales by Class(year-to-date)
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of August 1, 2019
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
HRW HRS White SRW Durum
MM
T
2018/19 2019/20
U.S. Hard Red Winter
15.8 13.8
18.022.9
9.011.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Hard Red Spring
5.27.2
16.0
15.4
7.0 7.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Soft Red Winter
5.6 4.3
7.8
7.0
3.52.6
0
5
10
15
20
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. White
2.4 2.4
7.4 7.1
5.3 5.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Durum
1.0 1.5
2.11.6
1.4 1.5
0.6 0.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
HRW HRS SRW White Durum
MM
T
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand (MMT)
HRW HRS SRW
18/19 19/20 18/19 19/20 18/19 19/20
Beginning Stocks 15.8 13.8 5.20 7.21 5.58 4.30Production 18.0 22.9 16.0 15.4 7.78 6.99Supply Total 34.0 36.8 23.0 24.4 13.47 11.43
Domestic Use 11.2 13.4 8.76 8.55 5.69 5.63Exports 9.0 11.0 7.05 7.08 3.48 2.59Use Total 20.2 24.5 15.8 15.6 9.17 8.22
Ending Stocks 13.8 12.3 7.21 8.76 4.30 3.21
Stocks-to-Use 68% 50% 46% 56% 47% 39%
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand (MMT)
White Durum Total
18/19 19/20 18/19 19/20 18/19 19/20
Beginning Stocks 2.37 2.40 0.95 1.50 29.9 29.2Production 7.40 7.08 2.10 1.55 51.3 53.9Supply Total 9.9 9.61 4.46 4.57 84.9 86.7
Domestic Use 2.20 2.61 2.37 2.40 30.2 32.6Exports 5.33 5.17 0.60 0.68 25.5 26.5Use Total 7.54 7.78 2.97 3.08 55.7 59.1
Ending Stocks 2.40 1.82 1.50 1.47 29.2 27.6
Stocks-to-Use 32% 23% 50% 48% 52% 47%
U.S. FOB Gulf Prices
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, August 9, 2019
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19
$/M
etric
Ton
HRW ords HRS 14% SRW
U.S. FOB PNW Prices
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, August 9, 2019
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19
$/M
etric
Ton
HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW
SRW and Soft White Prices
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, August 9, 2019
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19
$/M
etric
Ton
SW SRW
U.S. Gulf Basis Prices
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, August 9, 2019
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19
$/M
etric
Ton
HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW
U.S. PNW Basis Prices
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, August 9, 2019
0
50
100
150
200
250
Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19
$/M
etric
Ton
HRS 14 HRW 12
Major ExportersImport DemandU.S. Situation by Class
Outlook
U.S. Wheat Production, Area and Yield
15.216.0 15.5
47.451.3
53.93.1
3.2
3.5
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20
MT/
hect
are
Prod
uctio
n (M
MT)
and
Har
vest
ed A
rea
(mh)
Harvested Area Production Yield
U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison
46.1 47.845.6
90.2
89.1
90
90.2
89.6
76.7
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20*
Mill
ion
Acre
s
Wheat All Corn for Grain Soybeans
World WheatProduction, Use and Trade
735 76
2
731 76
8
711 74
3
736 75
8
173
182
174
183
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d U
se (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
World CornProduction, Use and Trade
1078 11
23
1108
1091
1121
1129
149
176
170
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d U
se (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
World SoybeansProduction, Use and Trade
342 36
3
342
339
347
354
153148 149
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d U
se (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
Ocean Freight Rates for Grains
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, August 9, 2019
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19
$/M
etric
ton
PNW to Japan Gulf to Middle East Gulf to West Africa
Summary• Global production to increase 5% year-over-year to 768 MMT
• EU Wheat production to rebound after the 2018/19 drought to 150 MMT• Australian wheat production to rally 18% after last year’s drought to 21.0 MMT in 2019/20 • Black Sea (Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan) wheat production to reach 115 MMT, 4% higher than last year• Wheat production in the United States to total 53.9 MMT, 5% above last year
• Global ending stocks to rise to 285 MMT, 4% above 2018/19 levels and 11% higher than the 5-year average of 257 MMT
• Estimated Chinese ending stocks of 146 MMT are 4% higher than last year and 30% above the 5-year average of 112 MMT
• U.S. ending stocks to total 27.6 MMT, 6% lower than last year and in line with the 5-year average
• World consumption and trade are both expected to exceed 2018/19 levels
• Total global trade to reach 183 MMT, 5% higher than 2018/19 and 4% above the 5-year average• Total global wheat consumption to reach all-time high of 754 MMT, 4% higher than the 5-year average• U.S. 2019/20 domestic consumption to increase 7% year-over-year to 32.6 MMT and exports to rise 4%
above 2018/19 levels to 26.5 MMT
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