wri - tien shiao and charles iceland - godrej

AQUEDUCTAQUEDUCTWRI’S GLOBAL WATER RISK MAPPING TOOLWRI’S GLOBAL WATER RISK MAPPING TOOL

A GLOBAL WATER RISK MAPPING TOOL

ZOOM IN FOR MORE DETAIL – 15,000 CATCHMENTS

AQUEDUCT ALLIANCE

AQUEDUCT WATER RISK FRAMEWORK

Regulatory &

reputational risks

� Baseline water stress

Physical risk: QUANTITY Physical risk: QUALITY

Overall Water Risk

� Inter-annual variability

� Seasonal variability

� Flood occurrence

� Drought severity

� Upstream storage

� Groundwater stress

� Return flow ratio

� Upstream protected land

� Media coverage

� Access to water

� Threatened amphibians

DATA SELECTION CRITERIA

• Literature review

• Global coverage for comparability

• Publicly available

• Comparative analysis of:

• Granularity, • Granularity,

• Time frame,

• Publication date and source

• Consulted with subject matter experts

EXPERT REVIEWERS

� CDP Water Disclosure Project

� Ceres

� Columbia University

� Deloitte Consulting LLP

� Global Adaptation Institute

� Global Water Strategies

� The World Bank

� US Environmental Protection Agency

� University of Michigan at Ann Arbor

� University of North Carolina Chapel Hill

� University of Virginia

� Water Footprint Network� Global Water Strategies

� Nanjing University

� National Geographic

� Pacific Institute

� The Nature Conservancy

� Water Footprint Network

� World Business Council for Sustainable

Development

� Yale University

BASELINE WATER STRESStotal annual water withdrawals (municipal, industrial, and agricultural) expressed as a percent of the total annual available flow; higher values indicate more competition among users

Data Sources:Global Drainage Basin Database, National Institute for Environmental Studies of JapanGlobal Land Data Assimilation System 2, NASA Goddard Labs, 1980-2008Water Use by Sector, Food and Agriculture Organization, 2010Consumptive Use Ratios, Shiklamanov and Rodda, 2003

FLOOD OCCURRENCEcount of the number of floods recorded from 1985 to the present date

Data Sources:Global Archive of Large Flood Events, Brakenridge, G., Dartmouth Flood Observatory, 1985-2011

DROUGHT SEVERITYaverage length times dryness of droughts from 1901 to 2008 (drought is defined as a contiguous period where soil moisture remains below the 20th percentile)

Data Sources:Development of a 50-yr high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcing for land surface modeling, Li H., Sheffield J., and Wood E.F., 1901-2008

GROUNDWATER STRESSthe ratio of groundwater withdrawal relative to the recharge rate to aquifer size; values above one indicate where unsustainable consumption could affect groundwater availability and dependent ecosystems

Data Sources:Water Balance of Global Aquifers Revealed by Groundwater Footprint, Gleeson, T., Wada, Y., Bierkens, M.F.P., and van Beek, L.P.H., 1958-2000

THE POWER OF AGGREGATION

SECTOR SPECIFIC WEIGHTING

Electric power

Semi-conductor

Oil & Gas

Mining

Construction Materials

Textile

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

WRI Default

Agriculture

Food & Beverage

Chemicals

% Quantity % Quality % Reg&Rep

CHALLENGE: RISK TO BUSINESS OPERATIONS

P&G USES AQUEDUCT TO EVALUATE MANUFACTURING FACILITIES

CHALLENGE: SUPPLY CHAIN RISK

Photo: flickr/bigbirdz

McDONALD’S USES AQUEDUCT TO MAP 353 OF ITS LARGEST SUPPLY CHAIN FACILITIES

Challenges to Food Security: 40% of irrigated crops in the United States is

located in areas of water stress concern

USA, Baseline Water Stress in areas with Irrigated Agriculture

USA, Change in Water Stress by 2025 in areas with Irrigated Agriculture(IPCC Scenario A1B)

Challenges to Food Security: 73% of current irrigated crops in the United

States would see water stress grow 2 to 8 times worse by 2025

Southeast Asia, Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants

Challenges to Energy Security: 19% of S&E Asian power plant design

capacity is located in areas of water stress concern

Southeast Asia, Long Term Change in Water Stress and Power Plants (2025, IPCC Scenario A1B)

Challenges to Energy Security: 55% of S&E Asian current power plant

design capacity would see water stress grow 2 to 8 times worse by 2025

THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY

COMING SOON: UPDATED PROJECTIONS

CHANGE IN WATER STRESS: 2025

Data: The Coca-Cola Company

COMING SOON: LIVE SATELLITE DATA

WATER POLICY

Image TBD… suggestions?

COMING SOON: POLICY, LEGAL, & REGULATORY INDICATORS

Photo: flickr/waferboard

CONCLUSION

WRI.org/AqueductWRI.org/Aqueduct

DATA SOURCES: PHYSICAL RISK

Water supply and demand:

• Global Drainage Basin Database, National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan, polygons

• NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System Version 2 (GLDAS-2), 1979-2009, 1 x 1 degree

• Water Use by Sector, Food and Agriculture Organization, 2010, country

• Consumptive Use Ratios, Shiklamanov and Rodda, 2003, 26 regions

Floods:

• Global Archive of Large Flood Events, Brakenridge, G., Dartmouth Flood Observatory, 1985-2011, polygons

Drought:

• Development of a 50-yr high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcing for land surface

modeling, Li H., Sheffield J., and Wood E.F., 1901-2008, 1 x 1 degree

Groundwater Stress:

• Water Balance of Global Aquifers Revealed by Groundwater

Footprint, Gleeson, T., Wada, Y., Bierkens, M.F.P., and van Beek, L.P.H., 1958-2000, 50 x 50 km

Dams

• Global Reservoir and Dam Database V1.1, Global Water System Project, 2007, points

Protected areas:

• The World Database on Protected Areas, IUCN, UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 2012, polygons

DATA SOURCES: REGULATORY/REPUTATIONAL RISK

• Google News, 2002-2012

• Proportion of Population Using an Improved Drinking Water

Source , World Health Organization/UNICEF Joint Monitoring

Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation, 2010

The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, IUCN, 2011• The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, IUCN, 2011

DISAGGREGATION

Baseline Water Stress

(withdrawal/available flow)

Inter-annual Variability

(standard deviation/mean annual supply)

Seasonal Variability

(standard deviation/mean monthly average supplyaverage supply

Upstream Storage

(upstream storage capacity/mean supply)

Return Flow Ratio

(upstream non-consumptive use / available flow)

Upstream Protected Land

(% total supply originating from protected lands)

HYDROLOGICAL MODELING

Key Data: Total Blue Water (Bt)

Definition: Flow accumulated runoff upstream of the

catchment plus the runoff in the catchment.

Data

Sources:

GDBD basins, NASA GLDAS2 runoff Runoff

Runoff

A

BTotal Blue Water (B) =

Runoff (A) + Runoff (B)

HYDROLOGICAL MODELING

Runoff

Runoff

A

Key Data: Available Blue Water (Ba)

Definition: Total amount of water available to a catchment

before any uses in the catchment are satisfied

and is calculated as runoff plus all water flowing

into the catchment from upstream catchments

minus upstream consumptive use.

Data

Sources:

GDBD basins, NASA GLDAS 2 runoff, UN FAO

water use, Shiklomanov, I.A. and J.C. Rodda

consumptive use ratios

Consumptive Use

B

Available Blue Water (B) =

Runoff (A) – Consumptive Use (A) + Runoff (B)