youth demographics in the city of toronto toronto community and neighbourhood services: social...

YOUTH DEMOGRAPHICS IN THE CITY OF TORONTO

Toronto Community and Neighbourhood Services: Social Development and Administration Division

• The Future - born 1997-2001 (aged 0-4): 5.8%• Baby Boom Echo - born 1981-1996 (aged 5-20): 18.7% • Baby Bust - born 1968-1980 (aged 21-33): 20.3% • Baby Boom - born 1948-1967 (aged 34-53): 31.4%• Pre-Seniors - born 1937-1947 (aged 54-64): 10.2% • Seniors - born before 1936 (aged 65+): 13.6%

Toronto’s Population - 2001

Toronto's Youth Population - 2001

143,280

165,140

196,465

Age 15-19

Age 20-24

Age 25-29

Source: Census 2001

Youth = 504,885 (or 20.3% of the City's Total Pop'n)

• Youth population will remain stable over next 30 years (averaging about 21% of the population)

• Conversely, seniors will experience significant growth

• Working age population (b/ 15-65) is projected to decline, mostly due to out-migration and aging-out of the labour force

• Projected growth shows that youth (15-29) will increase to nearly 600,000 by 2031

• Suggests skills shortage and need for replacement workers with appropriate skills

Population Projections

Toronto Youth Population Projections

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2031

Age 15-19 Age 20-24 Age 25-29

Source: Urban Development Services, Policy & Research Div.

Toronto: Diverse and Multicultural

• Almost 1/2 of Toronto residents are foreign born

• Annually, Toronto receives almost 1/4 of all new arrivals to Canada (60,000 - 80,000 new arrivals each year)

• Toronto has 1/12 of Canada’s population, but has 1/4 of Canada’s immigrants

• International immigration is a major driver of population change in Toronto (these trends are expected to continue)

• 202,065 are immigrant youths (39.8% of all youth aged 15-29)

• Contrasts with Canada where the proportion of youth that reported immigrant origin, is much lower

• 1 in 5 youth in Toronto speak a language other than English & French at home

Youth: Diverse and Multicultural

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Toronto Immigrants (Age 15-29)by Place of Birth

Source: Census 1996 Special Tabulation

• 213,630 youth belong to a visible minority (42% of all youth aged 15-29)

• Proportion contrasts with Canada where 14% of youth belong to a visible minority group

Toronto Youth (Age 15-29) Visible Minority Status

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000

Source: Census 1996 Special Tabulation

• Replacement of retiring workers: Young workers need to have the skills necessary to replace older workers as many baby-boomers enter retirement years

• Technology Change: Both hard and soft skills needed to keep pace with ever changing economy by continuous learning and on-the-job training

Youth: Learning & Education

Percent of Youth by Age andHighest Level of School

City of Toronto, October 2002

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0-8 years ofschool

Somesecondary

High Schooldiploma

Some post-secondary

CommunityCollegediploma

Universitydegree

15-19 year olds 20-24 year olds

Source: Labour Force Survey

• Youth unemployment rates remain at double-digit levels

• Rates are higher for younger youth

• Rates for youth from minority groups are even higher

Youth: Employment Issues

Unemployment Rate Toronto 2000-2002

0

5

10

15

20

25

October 2000 October 2001 October 2002

15-19 20-24 25+Source: Labour Force Survey

• “Under-employment” continues to be an issue, particularly for younger people (only part-time jobs available, holding multiple part-time jobs ...)

• Particularly an issue with immigrant youth

Toronto Youth, 2002by Employed Status

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

15-19 20-24 25+

Part-time

Full-time

Source: Labour Force Survey

Toronto Median Income Yr 2000: Families & Non-Family Persons

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Husband-wifefamilies

Lone-parentfamilies

Non-familypersons

Youth-led

All Ages

Source: Tax Files Year 2000

Mean and Median Weekly SalaryToronto, 2002

$136.03

$353.21

$748.18

$109.60

$320.00

$651.60

0

100

200

300400

500

600

700

800

15-19 20-24 25+

Mean Weekly Salary Median Weekly Salary

Source: Labour Force Survey

Youth on Social Assistance

• In Toronto there are approximately 11,000 youth on social assistance (representing 26% of all youth cases in Ontario)

• There are an additional 9,000 youth in families that receive social assistance (representing 36% of all youth dependents in Ontario)

• 12% of youth cases are employed - likely part-time

Homelessness among Youth

• Despite economic growth, homelessness is getting worse

• The fastest growing group of emergency shelter users is now two parent families

• • The number of children using shelters rose by 130% from 2,700

children in 1988 to almost 6,200 in 2000

• An estimated 6,000 youth stay in Toronto’s emergency shelters

Number of Children in Toronto Emergency Shelters (1988-2000)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 * 1999 * 2000 *

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f C

hil

dre

n

• As of 2001 Census, there will be nearly 338,000 people entering retirement years. Another 252,000 will enter retirement over the next 10 years

• Youth currently represent 20% of the population, or 504,885 persons

• Need to replace these workers. Demographics suggest future skills gap

• Youth are not a homogenous group. Many come from different ethnic backgrounds, households, and income situations

Summary

• Diversity in Toronto is reflected in the youth population as well. By proving youth with Canadian work experience, there are many opportunities for youth to participate in this diverse market

• Recognition of non-Canadian credentials and work experience

• Need for more effective school to work transition (I.e., Job preparation, work experience, training on the job, and job maintenance)

• Awareness of job opportunities and trends is needed

• Recognition of General Equivalency Diploma (GED)