an agent-based model of recurring epidemics in a population with quarantine capabilities
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Brendan Greenley Period 3. An Agent-Based Model of Recurring Epidemics in a Population with Quarantine Capabilities. Why An Epidemic Model?. Epidemics have been responsible for great losses of life and have acted as a population control (Black Plague, Spanish Influenza) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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An Agent-Based Model of Recurring Epidemics in a Population with Quarantine Capabilities Brendan Greenley Period 3
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Why An Epidemic Model?Epidemics have been responsible for great losses of life and have acted as a population control (Black Plague, Spanish Influenza)Epidemics are still a cause of concern today and in the future (SARS, H1N1 Swine Flu)Analyzing certain characteristics of an epidemic outbreak or response can help shape plans in case of a real outbreak.http://www.solarnavigator.net/animal_kingdom/animal_images/death_black_plague_street_scene.jpg
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Why Agent-Based?Originally tried System DynamicsAgent-Based Modeling makes more senseIndividual behaviors differ and can greatly affect the course of an epidemic outbreakA user can observe an individual agent over timeChildren can inherit values from two parentsContinuous visual representation of population
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Scope of projectPopulation/environment bounds dictated by computer resourcesAll about seeing how epidemics balance a hypothetical population where disease outbreaks are the only constraint.Quarantine option allows for analysis on how a populations response to a epidemic helps/hinders its overall carrying capacityAging, mating, and survival behaviors all seen in model
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NetLogoNetLogo 4.0.4 (Developed at Northwestern)Programming environment/language allows for System Dynamics & Agent Based ModelingCross-platform supportWindows, *Nix, MacDepends on JavaFree!
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SetupUser Control Panel2D WorldOn-the-flyPlotting
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User Control Panel (UCP)
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UCP Detailsmating-freqThe minimum amount of ticks an agent must wait between mating.virus-mutation-rateThe number of ticks before the base-susceptibility of all agents is reassigned along a bell curve, a pocket of infections emerges. And quarantine efforts are reset from the quarantine area.max-ticks-aliveThe maximum amount of ticks an agent may live to. This is then plugged into an equation which determines the probability of an agent from dying from non-epidemic causes as a function of age. Important in limiting population spikes during spans of time free of epidemics
max-days-sickAn infected agent is hosts the epidemic for this amount of time. If an agent survives to this point, there is a 30% chance of him/her recovering and gaining immunity.
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Unbounded 2D World
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2D World Breakdown:Immune AgentsSusceptibility value low enough that agent is safe from infectionCan only die from age, or by losing immunity due to a new virus mutation or by having susceptibility increase due to age.Agents who survive an epidemic outbreak are immune until it mutates
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2D World Breakdown:Susceptible AgentsSusceptible agents are able to get sick, magnitude of susceptibility represented by shading (white to olive, somewhat susceptible to very susceptible)Susceptibility values determined by age and a randomly distributed base-susceptibility value. (Use 9th polynomial representation of 1918 Influenza W-shaped susceptibility curve to adjust base-susceptibility with age.
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Susceptibility Adjustment
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2D World Breakdown:Infected AgentsMoves more slowly than healthy agentsCan spread disease to neighborsLeaves a red path behindForced to stay in quarantine zone if escorted there.Gain immunity if they survive, though more likely to die.
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2D World Breakdown:Quarantine OfficersNumber dictated by QuarantineMagnitude variable slider
Never mate or die from ageTake shortest path back to 3x3 quarantine zone once they have someone to escort.Officer position and number are reset and recalculated every time the virus mutates.
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Quarantine Zone
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ProceduresGeneral Agent:Move in random direction, avoid escorted infected persons, quarantine zoneCheck for potential mateCheck for exposure to epidemicCheck to see if natural death is going to occurAge++
Quarantine Agent:Move in a random directionCheck for infected persons in a two patch radius, if any exist, force them to follow youTake any infected persons escorting towards quarantine zoneIf no infected agents being escorted, continue patrol
spiddlement.wordpress.com
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BehaviorSpaceAllows user to export data to spreadsheets and tablesCan incrementally increase specified variables as the model runsUseful for post-run data analysis in Excel
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ResultsSevere, recurring epidemics can successfully limit a populations growth over the long term.Quarantines can help raise the carrying capacity by 13%, and by even more with large magnitude quarantine responses.
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Chart1
Chart1
Mean Population
Impact of a Quarantine on Long-term Mean Population
Chart2
Chart2
Qurantine-Implemented? Value
Mean Population
A Recurring Quarantine Effort's Effect on Long-term Mean Population
epidemic qurantine
BehaviorSpace Spreadsheet data (NetLogo 4.0.3)
qurantine
05/21/2009 13:23:23:823 -0400
min-pxcormax-pxcormin-pycormax-pycor
-2020-2020
[run number]12
qurantine-implemented?00
initial-immunity-factor66
mating-freq730730
virus-mutation-rate1515
initial-%-sick1616"true"459.12
starting-population3535"false"406.11
max-ticks-alive3285032850
dt11
chance-of-transmission2020
vaccine-devlopment-time730730
quarantine_magnitude55
max-days-sick3030
[reporter]count turtlescount turtles
[final]649458
[min]6160
[max]956708
[mean]459.12406.11
[steps]1500015000
[all run data]count turtlescount turtles
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