an “alternative presentation” of trade by product

STD/TBS/Trade and STD/TBS/Trade and Competitiveness SCompetitiveness Sectionection

An “alternative presentation” of An “alternative presentation” of trade by producttrade by product

OECD Statistics Directorate

[email protected]

AgendaAgendaItem : 5fItem : 5fAgendaAgendaItem : 5fItem : 5f

3rd WPTGS meeting 4-6 October 2010, OECD3rd WPTGS meeting 4-6 October 2010, OECD


OutlineOutlineA. No unified presentation of trade in goods/services

B. Why a proposal for an alternative presentation of trade by product.

C. The conceptual correspondence: a tentative example

C1- Trade by product correspondence table

C2-Correspondence on trade in goods side

C21- Removing duplicates

C22-Estimating distribution services

C3-Correspondence on trade in services side

C4- Merge both to present trade by product and industry.

D. Conclusion/questions


A. No unified presentation of A. No unified presentation of trade in goods and servicestrade in goods and services

1. Trade in goods described by HS 2007 and SITC rev 4 – physical movement of goods cross frontiers

2. Trade in services – BOP/EBOPS 2010 – resident non-resident transactions – goods is “general merchandise” – change of ownership.

3. The detail is in one (IMTS for goods) or the other (BOP for services) but not both


B. Why a proposal for an “alternative B. Why a proposal for an “alternative presentation” of trade by product.presentation” of trade by product.

• The needs for relating trade statistics to SUT and IO is an argument for producing integrated statistics on trade in product by activity

• This could also improve analytical links to production, employment, enterprise, AMN, and direct investment statistics.


A tentative correspondence at a modest A tentative correspondence at a modest level of disaggregationlevel of disaggregation

• Only “current” classifications are used.

• Only at the section level of ISIC rev 3.1 and at the higher level of EBOPS data.

• Only exports are considered


C. The conceptual correspondence: a tentative C. The conceptual correspondence: a tentative exampleexample

• Data from OECD ITCS and TIS databases (reference year 2007) loaded in access database.

• Service : Use (and develop) the correspondence table between ISIC rev 3.1 and EBOPS 2002 using CPC1.1 as a link(source MSITS 2002)

Goods : use the existing correspondence between HS 2002, CPC ver. 1.1, ISIC rev 3.1

Merge to obtain trade by product (CPC 1.1) and by industry (ISIC rev 3.1)


Special focus on two “cross cutting” Special focus on two “cross cutting” items:items:

1. Distribution services understand the role of these in trade, important in context of GATS - estimated using basic assumptions of BEA on US Trade

2. Software licences registered in Goods (to get a sense of size of these of interest to NA that qualify as GFCF) – proxied with HS 852439 disc for laser reading system.

Manufacturing services on inputs owned by others not dealt with


C1- The trade by product correspondence table 1/2C1- The trade by product correspondence table 1/2ISIC ISIC description HS EBOPS

AAgriculture, hunting and forestry X 283*

B Fishing X 283*

C Mining and quarrying X 283*

D Manufacturing X

D22

Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media 284*, 278

D28

Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 284*

D37 Recycling 282*

EElectricity, gas and water supply X 231

F Construction 249

G

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household goods 269

H Hotels and restaurants 957, 236adj*

ITransport, storage and communications

I60Land transport; transport via pipelines 205adj

I61 Water transport 205adj

I62 Air transport 205adj

I63

Supporting and auxiliary transport activities; activities of travel agencies 205adj, 236adj*

I64Post and telecommunications 245

J Financial intermediation

J65

Financial intermediation, except insurance and pension funding 260

J66

Insurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security 253


The correspondence table 2/2The correspondence table 2/2ISIC ISIC description HS EBOPS

KReal estate, renting and business activities X

K70 Real estate activities 284*

K71

Renting of machinery and equipment without operator and of personal and household goods 272, 288

K72Computer and related activities 262*, 266*

K73Research and development 279

K74 Other business activities

274,280,284

*,285,268adj

L

Public administration and defence; compulsory social security

291, 241*, 242*

M Education 895, 242*

M8090 Other education 262*N Health and social work 896, 241*

O

Other community, social and personal service activities X 897*

O90Sewage and refuse disposal, sanitation and 282*

O91Activities of membership organizations 289adj

O92Recreational, cultural and sporting activities 266*, 288, 262*

P

Activities of private households as employers and undifferentiated production activities of private households 897*

QExtraterritorial organizations and bodies 291


C2-Correspondence on trade in goods C2-Correspondence on trade in goods sideside

• No one to one correspondence between ISIC and HS – CPC.

• One HS series can consequently be allocated to (or produced by) several industries, hence generating some double countings when producing a trade by industry table.

• Some “duplicate” HS series do then need to be removed.


C21-Removing “duplicates” in C21-Removing “duplicates” in OECD merchandise trade data 1/2OECD merchandise trade data 1/2

• 35 commodity duplicates (out of 80 at section level) are related to ISIC section B (fishing) i.e. same commodity linked to ISIC classes 0501 (Fishing) and 0502 (Aquaculture)

• HS item 852439 “Discs for laser reading systems” linked to section D (manufacture) & section K (real estate, renting & business activities) in class 7221 software publishing.


C22-Removing duplicates in OECD C22-Removing duplicates in OECD merchandise trade data 2/2merchandise trade data 2/2

ISIC sections Value after duplicates removal Before duplicates removal Difference in %A Total 183,919 184,017 99.95%B Total 12,897 25,608 50.36%C Total 362,373 362,373 100.00%D Total 7,607,130 8,548,128 88.99%E Total 22,965 23,231 98.86%K Total 1,376 22,352 6.16%O Total 19,947 19,947 100.00%Grand Total 8,210,608 9,185,656 89.39%


OECD Merchandise exports by ISIC section OECD Merchandise exports by ISIC section (2007)(2007)

ISIC sections

Commodity Values (million

USD)% of total

A: Agriculture, hunting and forestry 183,919 2.1%B: Fishing 12,897 0.1%C: Mining and quarrying 362,373 4.2%D: Manufacturing 7,607,130 88.0%E: Electricity, gas and water supply 22,965 0.3%K: Real estate, renting and business activities 1,376 0.0%O: Other community, social and personal service activities 19,947 0.2%HS Not allocated 328,113 3.8%not specified 102,908 1.2%Total goods calculated from ITCS 8,641,629 100.0%


OECD merchandise exports by ISIC OECD merchandise exports by ISIC (2007)(2007)


Estimating distribution services included Estimating distribution services included in merchandise by ISIC (2007)in merchandise by ISIC (2007)

ISIC rev 3.1

Merchandise exports as % of

total Distribution services (Million USD)A: Agriculture, hunting and forestry 2.13% 5,363B: Fishing 0.15% 376C: Mining and quarrying 4.19% 10,567D: Manufacturing 88.03% 221,829E: Electricity, gas and water supply 0.27% 670K: Real estate, renting and business activities 0.02% 40O: Other community, social and personal service activities 0.23% 582HS Not allocated 3.80% 9,568Not specified 1.19% 3,00110 % of OECD total services exports 100.00% 251,995


C3-Correspondence on trade in C3-Correspondence on trade in services sideservices side

• No one to one correspondence with ISIC.

• EBOPS only partly product based

• Working at an aggregate level allows to calculate a total OECD


OECD services exports by ISIC section (2007)OECD services exports by ISIC section (2007)ISIC sections Value in million USD % of total

A : Agriculture, hunting and forestry 4,373 0.2%B : Fishing 4,373 0.2%C : Mining and quarrying 4,373 0.2%D : Manufacturing 34,606 1.4%E: Electricity, gas and water supply 5,690 0.2%F : Construction 50,703 2.0%G : Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household goods 125,360 5.0%H : Hotels and restaurants 266,234 10.6%I : Transport, storage and communications 853,912 33.9%J : Financial intermediation 316,825 12.6%K : Real estate, renting and business activities 558,183 22.2%L : Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 48,199 1.9%M : Education 57,709 2.3%N : Health and social work 2,641 0.1%O : Other community, social and personal service activities 152,172 6.0%P: Activities of private households as employers and undifferentiated production activities of private households 1,286 0.1%Q : Extraterritorial organizations and bodies 25,552 1.0%EBOPS Total services not allocated 7,761 0.3%Total Services 2,519,953 100.0%


OECD services exports by ISIC section (2007)OECD services exports by ISIC section (2007)


C4- Merge both to present trade C4- Merge both to present trade by product and industryby product and industry

ISIC sections Services exports Goods less distribution Distribution services TotalA : Agriculture, hunting and forestry 4372.9 178556.0 5363.2 188292.1B : Fishing 4372.9 12521.2 376.1 17270.2C : Mining and quarrying 4372.9 351806.1 10567.0 366746.0D : Manufacturing 34606.4 7385301.6 221828.7 7641736.7E: Electricity, gas and water supply 5689.9 22295.1 669.7 28654.6F : Construction 50703.4 50703.4G : Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household goods 125360.0 125360.0H : Hotels and restaurants 266233.8 266233.8I : Transport, storage and communications 853912.0 853912.0J : Financial intermediation 316824.6 316824.6K : Real estate, renting and business activities 558183.5 1336.0 40.1 559559.6L : Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 48198.9 48198.9M : Education 57709.3 57709.3N : Health and social work 2641.3 2641.3O : Other community, social and personal service activities 152172.1 19365.8 581.7 172119.6P: Activities of private households as employers and undifferentiated production activities of private households 1286.2 1286.2Q : Extraterritorial organizations and bodies 25552.0 25552.0All not allocated 7761.3 418451.8 12568.8 438782.0Grand total 2519953.0 8389633.7 251995.3 11161582.0

In million US dollars- data for 2007


OECD trade by ISIC sections (2007)OECD trade by ISIC sections (2007)


Impact of allocating DVDs to Impact of allocating DVDs to industry K instead of industry D.industry K instead of industry D.


OECD exports by main activityOECD exports by main activity


OECD trade by ISICOECD trade by ISIC


D- Conclusion & next stepsD- Conclusion & next steps• “Alternative presentation” is still at a preliminary stage.• Some of main challenges (manufacturing services) of

future revision not dealt with here. • As no one to one correspondence is possible many

calculation of estimates necessary and metadata should be studied carefully,

• Next step: extend the example to imports• Present the Industry section at the division level• Benchmark with existing surveys to give more

importance to Secondary production of services of industries primarily producing goods.


Questions to the WPTGSQuestions to the WPTGS

• Any experience in estimating distribution services included in merchandise trade?

• How should perpetual Licences to use software-non customized- provided on disk be treated. Is HS 852439 (Discs for laser reading systems) a good proxy ?

• How could manufacturing services be treated in future?

an “alternative presentation” of trade by product

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