Shedding light on the nighttime driving risk

An analysis of fatal crashes under dark conditions in the U.S., 1999-2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Russell Henk, P.E., Senior Research Engineer 

Val Pezoldt, Research Scientist  

Bernie Fette, Senior Research Specialist 

 

Teens in the Driver Seat Center 

 

 

 

 

May, 2010 

 

 

  

 

Summary of Analysis

Researchers from the Texas Transportation Institute recently examined nighttime fatal crash

trends over the past decade. The analysis showed that the proportion of drivers involved in nighttime fatal

crashes nationwide has increased steadily from 1999 to 2008, even as the overall fatality rate (measured

as deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled) and the total number of fatalities have generally declined

nationwide over the same period.

The ten-year increase in nighttime fatal crashes for 16- to 19-year-old drivers is greater than for

drivers age 20 and older. The higher proportion of these crashes for older drivers can be attributed

primarily to increased alcohol use. However, alcohol as a crash factor did not increase for younger drivers

– and in fact decreased marginally – suggesting that other factors are responsible for the higher nighttime

fatal crash proportion for this age group. Information from various sources suggests that the increase for

younger drivers could largely be due to an interaction of driver distraction caused by talking and texting

on cell phones and other characteristics of nighttime driving.

Figure 1 ‐ The proportion of drivers involved in fatal crashes at night has increased nationwide over the past decade, even as the overall number of fatalities and fatal crashes has declined. 

1

 

Driving at night is the most common documented crash-causing danger encountered by

inexperienced drivers, but surveys indicate that very few of those drivers are aware of the added risk

presented by nighttime conditions. Chances of a crash are further increased when other risk factors are

present, and cell phone use by teens represents a risk factor that has become increasingly pervasive over

the past ten years. 

 

Figure 2 ‐ Statistics suggest that alcohol is contributing to the increase in nighttime fatal crashes for drivers age 20 and older, but the same is not true for teenage drivers.

Background

Driving at night is a common risk factor for all drivers, but it is particularly dangerous for young

drivers. Distractions, speeding, low seat belt use and alcohol are also among the most frequently-faced

dangers, but it is the nighttime risk that ranks at the top of the list for the youngest motorists on the road,

primarily due to a combination of the visibility challenges caused by dark conditions, slower response

time brought about by fatigue, and a lack of experience driving under such conditions. 2

 

3

 

Visibility and Fatigue

The average person’s field of vision is smaller without the aid of light, and glare from oncoming

headlights can further limit the ability to see clearly and avoid hazards. And according to the National

Sleep Foundation, the average teenager requires at least nine hours of sleep per night, but typically gets

less than seven hours. The resulting fatigue, especially late at night, can contribute to impairment that is

similar to being intoxicated. These visibility and fatigue issues are exacerbated by the limited amount of

experience possessed by teenage drivers. Without sufficient training and practice, young drivers are at

greater risk, risk that is further compounded by the challenges associated with driving at night.

License Restrictions

It is largely for these reasons that most states include a nighttime driving restriction in Graduated

Driver License (GDL) laws. The laws are designed in part to limit novice drivers’ exposure to the greatest

dangers they face. In most states with a GDL law, the nighttime restriction and a limit on the number of

passengers allowed are the most widely implemented features of that law.

GDL laws vary widely from state to state, and the same is true of the nighttime restriction that

constitutes a key component of those laws. In 2009, both the Highway Data Loss Institute (HDLI) and the

Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) documented in separate reports the positive results that can

be expected from GDL laws that include a nighttime driving restriction.

In Graduated Driver Licensing Laws and Insurance Collision Claim Frequencies of Teenage

Drivers, the HDLI determined that the frequency of collision claims declined by 7.3 percent for 16- and

17-year-old drivers who faced a prohibition on driving after midnight. The report further stated that a

restriction beginning at 9 p.m. would produce a reduction of 11.4 percent. In Graduated Licensing Laws

and Fatal Crashes of Teenage Drivers: A National Study, the IIHS determined that a nighttime driving

restriction beginning at 1 a.m. produced a 9 percent reduction in the fatal crash rate for 15- to 17-year old

drivers in 100,000 teenagers associated with specific GDL components. Restrictions beginning at 8 p.m.

could be expected to produce a 20 percent reduction in the fatal crash rate for those drivers, although no

states currently have a restriction beginning at that hour.

Lack of Awareness

Despite its place at the top of the list for young drivers, the danger of nighttime driving is not well

recognized by young drivers. In surveys of nearly 20,000 Texas teenagers conducted by the Teens in the

Driver Seat Center of the Texas Transportation Institute, only 3 percent cited the nighttime risk. In the

4

 

same assessment, 21 percent of teens reported that they drive after 10 p.m. “sometimes,” and 28 percent

said that they do so “a lot.” Similar results have been noted in more limited survey samples in Georgia,

California and Connecticut.

Findings

Data for this analysis was drawn from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), which is

maintained by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The years from 1999 to

2008 comprised the analysis period, reflecting the ten most recent years for which data are available. For

purposes of this analysis, the light conditions coded as “dark” and “dark but lighted” were combined to

reflect the percentage of crashes occurring under those conditions. The analysis examined nighttime fatal

crashes overall, as well as nighttime crashes in which alcohol was a contributing factor

Findings indicated:

The proportion of nighttime fatal crashes rose by 7.5 percent over the decade examined for

drivers age 20 and older, and by 10.2 percent for teen drivers.

This increase was concurrent with a general decline in traffic fatalities nationwide without

regard to age or time of day, which fell from 41,717 to 37,261 (a decrease of 10.6 percent) as

well as a similar decline in fatal crashes from 37,140 to 34,017 (a decrease of 8.4 percent).

The proportion of drivers in nighttime fatal crashes involving alcohol grew by 6 percent for

drivers age 20 and older, but fell by almost 1 percent among teen drivers.

While fatal motorcycle crashes increased sharply overall during the study period (111

percent), the percentage of those crashes happening at night declined by 8 percent.

Cell Phone Use and Texting

FARS data on cell phone use in fatal crashes are not yet substantial or complete enough to have

been considered in this analysis. Experience to date has shown that such data are difficult to collect

consistently, and that events are generally regarded as being substantially underreported. However,

several facts gathered from other sources point to a steady and rapid growth of cell phone ownership and

use, with a significant portion of that use taking place in motor vehicles:

According to CITA-The Wireless Association, the number of cell phone subscribers across

the U.S. grew from 86 million in 1999 to 262 million in 2008 – an increase of 204 percent.

During the same time, cell phone subscribers as a segment of the U.S. population grew from

38 percent to 87 percent.

Cell phone ownership among teens is growing roughly three times faster than it is for adults.

An August 2009 study by the Pew Research Center, Teens and Mobile Phones Over the Past

Five Years: Pew Internet Looks Back, found that cell phone ownership among adults grew

from 65 percent in 2004 to 77 percent in 2008 (18.4 percent increase), while it grew from 45

percent to 71 percent among teens (57.7 percent increase).

A review by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration demonstrates that hand-

held cell phone use by 16- to 24-year old drivers has been substantially higher than it has

been for drivers age 25 and older in each year from 2002 to 2008.

 

Figure 3 ‐ Cell phone use while driving is considerably more common for younger drivers than for older drivers. 

 

5

 

6

 

A November 2009 study by the Pew Research Center, Teens and Distracted Driving, notes

that 82 percent of all U.S. teens own a cell phone; of those who use the phone for texting, 34

percent say they have texted while driving, and 52 percent say they have talked on the cell

phone while driving. The study also noted that 48 percent of all teens ages 12-17 say they

have been in a car when the driver was texting, and 40 percent say they have been in a car

when the driver used a cell phone in a way that put themselves or others in danger.

Recent research indicates that texting now takes place more frequently mongst teens that ever

before and is the communication method of choice for this age group, with 54 percent of

teens texting on a daily basis compared to 38 percent placing a call on a cell phone (daily).

The average teen sends and receives 1,500 text messages a month (3,000 per month for

female teens). Texting is an ingrained part of the teen communication culture.

A 2009 assessment of teen driving behavior in Texas by the Teens in the Driver Seat Center

of the Texas Transportation Institute produced the same finding as the second Pew study

noted above – that 52 percent of teens said they have talked on a cell phone while driving.

According to NHTSA, the highest incidence of distracted driving occurs in the under-20 age

group.

Other considerations

In addition to the distraction element, previous studies indicate that both speeding and seat belt

use should be considered among the factors contributing to all fatal crashes, but especially for those

happening after dark. Research conducted for NHTSA has shown that belt use varies by as much as 30

percent from daytime to nighttime. In addition, speed is present as a factor in nighttime fatal crashes

almost twice as often as it is in crashes during the day.

While motorcycle crashes increased substantially during the period examined in this analysis,

those crashes do not appear to have contributed to the nighttime trend. During those years, the number of

fatal motorcycle crashes did increase sharply, from 2,340 to 4,954. However, the proportion of those

crashes happening at night declined from 40 percent to 36.5 percent over the same period.

Conclusions

The findings of this analysis suggest that alcohol is contributing to an increase in nighttime fatal

crashes involving drivers age 20 and older. However, the same is not true for teenage drivers, suggesting

7

 

that factors other than alcohol are responsible for the trend of increased nighttime crashes for teens. It is

likely that distractions (a common driving risk factor for teenagers) in the form of talking or texting on

cell phones is prominent among those factors. Other dominant risk factors for teenage drivers (lack of

experience, additional teenage passengers, speeding, not wearing seat belts, and alcohol) have been

present and well recognized for many years, long before cellular communication became prevalent.

However, it is cell phone use – propelled by rapid technological advancement and increased affordability

– that is likely the most notable new driving risk factor for contemporary teens.

FARS data is not yet sufficiently comprehensive with regard to the use of in-vehicle technology

to support the suggested link between cell phone use and increased nighttime fatal crashes. There is,

however, substantial evidence demonstrating that cell phone use is growing rapidly (far more quickly for

teenagers than it is for individuals age 20 and older) and that much of that use takes place behind the

wheel. Furthermore, there are numerous studies documenting the negative influence that cell phone use

has on driving. Clearly, the use of a cell phone complicates the driving task substantially for all drivers.

The effects of this risk factor are compounded by the compromised vision and fatigue that characterize

the nighttime driving environment, and for teenagers, the problem is further exacerbated by a lack of

driving experience.

The nighttime risk is the most common one faced by novice drivers, yet only 3 percent of

teenagers are aware of the dangers presented by driving at night. Consequently, efforts to reverse the

nighttime fatal crash trend face considerable obstacles until greater awareness and understanding of the

nighttime driving danger can be achieved, not only among teenage drivers, but also among parents and

others who influence those drivers.

StatePercent of 

Fatal Crashes at Night

Percent of Night Crashes with Drinking Driver

Percent of all Fatal Crashes 

at Night

Percent of Night Crashes with Drinking Driver

 Change in Proportion at 

Night

 Change in Proportion of Night Crashes with 

Drinking Driver

1999‐2008 1999‐2008

US Total  45.1 22.4% 49.7 22.2% 10.2% ‐0.7%

Alabama 48.2% 18.3% 47.8% 16.4% ‐0.8% ‐10.5%

Alaska 53.3% 37.5% 50.0% 0.0% ‐6.3% ‐100.0%

Arizona 41.3% 33.9% 51.9% 31.5% 25.6% ‐7.1%

Arkansas 41.8% 42.1% 42.1% 21.9% 0.8% ‐48.0%

California 51.4% 19.3% 51.6% 26.6% 0.3% 37.5%

Colorado 44.5% 30.2% 43.1% 28.0% ‐3.2% ‐7.2%

Connecticut 50.0% 27.8% 56.5% 23.1% 13.0% ‐16.9%

Delaware 64.3% 0.0% 41.7% 40.0% ‐35.2% na

District of Columbia 50.0% 0.0% na na na na

Florida 52.3% 4.6% 63.2% 17.9% 20.8% 288.2%

Georgia 37.3% 10.3% 44.2% 8.2% 18.5% ‐20.5%

Hawaii 53.8% 14.3% 46.7% 0.0% ‐13.3% ‐100.0%

Idaho 43.6% 16.7% 39.4% 26.1% ‐9.7% 56.5%

Illinois 49.6% 19.8% 56.0% 28.6% 13.0% 44.2%

Indiana 42.6% 29.3% 43.4% 10.2% 1.8% ‐65.2%

Iowa 41.2% 42.9% 48.9% 18.2% 18.7% ‐57.6%

Kansas 49.5% 40.0% 51.1% 52.2% 3.4% 30.4%

Kentucky 37.4% 34.7% 43.5% 8.1% 16.4% ‐76.6%

Louisiana 52 8% 16 4% 51 1% 20 8% ‐3 2% 26 9%

       Percentage of Fatal Crashes Occurring at Night ‐ drivers 16‐19

1999 2008

Louisiana 52.8% 16.4% 51.1% 20.8% ‐3.2% 26.9%

Maine 34.4% 27.3% 42.9% 0.0% 24.7% ‐100.0%

Maryland 50.4% 12.1% 52.0% 17.9% 3.1% 48.7%

Massachusetts 58.2% 23.1% 55.6% 16.0% ‐4.6% ‐30.7%

Michigan 36.9% 23.2% 50.8% 25.8% 37.4% 11.2%

Minnesota 33.9% 14.3% 31.9% 13.3% ‐5.8% ‐6.7%

Mississippi 45.3% 24.2% 48.1% 8.1% 6.2% ‐66.5%

Missouri 51.8% 27.5% 47.5% 24.1% ‐8.2% ‐12.1%

Montana 45.0% 55.6% 62.5% 46.7% 38.9% ‐16.0%

Nebraska 41.8% 13.0% 43.2% 50.0% 3.4% 283.3%

Nevada 31.7% 15.4% 59.5% 31.8% 87.5% 106.8%

New Hampshire 47.1% 25.0% 38.9% 28.6% ‐17.4% 14.3%

New Jersey 50.0% 22.2% 58.1% 14.0% 16.2% ‐37.2%

New Mexico 38.0% 48.1% 47.8% 36.4% 25.8% ‐24.5%

New York 42.1% 19.3% 47.1% 25.0% 11.8% 29.4%

North Carolina 34.1% 16.0% 57.4% 13.9% 68.3% ‐13.4%

North Dakota 33.3% 66.7% 50.0% 42.9% 50.0% ‐35.7%

Ohio 46.2% 19.7% 37.7% 24.6% ‐18.6% 25.1%

Oklahoma 41.2% 27.8% 51.0% 11.8% 23.7% ‐57.6%

Oregon 48.0% 33.3% 33.3% 0.0% ‐30.6% ‐100.0%

Pennsylvania 47.3% 27.0% 38.6% 26.6% ‐18.5% ‐1.5%

Rhode Island 16.7% 0.0% 28.6% 50.0% 71.4% na

8

StatePercent of 

Fatal Crashes at Night

Percent of Night Crashes with Drinking Driver

Percent of all Fatal Crashes 

at Night

Percent of Night Crashes with Drinking Driver

 Change in Proportion at 

Night

 Change in Proportion of Night Crashes with 

Drinking Driver

1999‐2008 1999‐2008

       Percentage of Fatal Crashes Occurring at Night ‐ drivers 16‐19

1999 2008

South Carolina 39.1% 15.9% 57.4% 37.9% 46.8% 139.0%

South Dakota 50.0% 58.3% 33.3% 33.3% ‐33.3% ‐42.9%

Tennessee 41.2% 24.2% 52.3% 22.1% 27.0% ‐8.8%

Texas 50.5% 24.5% 53.3% 26.4% 5.4% 7.4%

Utah 26.1% 5.6% 40.0% 0.0% 53.3% ‐100.0%

Vermont 28.6% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% ‐73.1% na

Virginia 52.4% 18.2% 50.0% 19.3% ‐4.5% 6.1%

Washington 50.6% 25.0% 45.3% 12.5% ‐10.5% ‐50.0%

West Virginia 55.6% 40.0% 37.5% 25.0% ‐32.5% ‐37.5%

Wisconsin 31.4% 24.3% 46.3% 26.3% 47.8% 8.2%

Wyoming 40.0% 50.0% 30.8% 25.0% ‐23.1% ‐50.0%

9

Percent of Fatal Crashes 

at Night

Percent of Night Crashes with Drinking Driver

Percent of all Fatal Crashes 

at Night

Percent of Night Crashes with Drinking Driver

 Change in Proportion at 

Night

 Change in Proportion of Night Crashes with 

Drinking Driver

State 1999 to 2008 1999 to 2008

US Total  38.6% 26.3% 41.5% 27.9% 7.6% 6.0%

Alabama 40.2% 26.2% 40.7% 25.3% 1.4% ‐3.5%

Alaska 33.7% 36.7% 31.1% 26.1% ‐7.8% ‐28.9%

Arizona 38.5% 27.7% 35.4% 24.9% ‐8.0% ‐10.1%

Arkansas 39.5% 37.3% 35.4% 39.9% ‐10.3% 7.0%

California 42.2% 26.3% 45.0% 25.8% 6.7% ‐1.9%

Colorado 30.4% 46.5% 37.9% 39.8% 24.8% ‐14.5%

Connecticut 40.2% 26.6% 36.8% 25.0% ‐8.4% ‐5.9%

Delaware 44.9% 31.1% 55.8% 46.8% 24.4% 50.1%

District of Columbia 71.4% 5.7% 61.9% 15.4% ‐13.3% 169.2%

Florida 42.4% 7.5% 48.2% 27.3% 13.7% 262.2%

Georgia 35.1% 12.6% 39.4% 15.0% 12.2% 18.8%

Hawaii 46.0% 31.6% 51.6% 28.6% 12.3% ‐9.5%

Idaho 28.2% 38.5% 38.6% 41.2% 37.2% 7.1%

Illinois 42.4% 21.8% 41.1% 31.1% ‐3.0% 42.5%

Indiana 33.4% 35.2% 36.3% 16.7% 8.7% ‐52.7%

Iowa 34.6% 35.5% 35.5% 22.8% 2.3% ‐35.8%

Kansas 37.8% 43.0% 44.8% 44.2% 18.5% 2.9%

Kentucky 30.4% 36.0% 36.5% 31.8% 20.3% ‐11.6%

Louisiana 45 8% 21 5% 50 2% 32 0% 9 7% 49 1%

                    Percentage of Fatal Crashes Occurring at Night ‐ drivers 20 and older

1999 2008

Louisiana 45.8% 21.5% 50.2% 32.0% 9.7% 49.1%

Maine 30.8% 44.9% 30.7% 29.3% ‐0.4% ‐34.8%

Maryland 43.1% 29.6% 45.2% 22.6% 4.9% ‐23.6%

Massachusetts 46.5% 18.3% 39.7% 7.1% ‐14.7% ‐61.1%

Michigan 38.9% 34.3% 35.4% 30.2% ‐8.9% ‐12.0%

Minnesota 30.1% 30.9% 34.1% 29.6% 13.3% ‐4.1%

Mississippi 39.4% 33.4% 38.1% 13.8% ‐3.3% ‐58.7%

Missouri 36.2% 24.9% 40.7% 36.0% 12.2% 44.6%

Montana 40.6% 47.6% 38.9% 48.0% ‐4.1% 0.8%

Nebraska 35.8% 32.2% 31.8% 39.0% ‐11.1% 20.9%

Nevada 37.8% 21.1% 46.1% 33.7% 22.0% 60.1%

New Hampshire 33.9% 50.9% 32.8% 32.8% ‐3.4% ‐35.6%

New Jersey 36.1% 19.6% 46.1% 23.5% 27.4% 20.0%

New Mexico 42.0% 26.8% 39.3% 32.7% ‐6.3% 21.9%

New York 35.6% 18.3% 38.5% 18.2% 8.0% ‐0.5%

North Carolina 35.4% 22.2% 42.0% 26.9% 18.7% 21.4%

North Dakota 39.3% 56.3% 44.1% 50.0% 12.0% ‐11.1%

Ohio 34.8% 24.7% 39.9% 28.4% 14.7% 15.2%

Oklahoma 36.3% 26.4% 35.6% 24.7% ‐1.9% ‐6.3%

Oregon 35.8% 19.8% 39.1% 18.3% 9.2% ‐7.4%

Pennsylvania 40.1% 30.2% 40.5% 38.1% 1.0% 26.1%

Rhode Island 42.3% 17.0% 56.9% 34.1% 34.5% 100.6%

10

Percent of Fatal Crashes 

at Night

Percent of Night Crashes with Drinking Driver

Percent of all Fatal Crashes 

at Night

Percent of Night Crashes with Drinking Driver

 Change in Proportion at 

Night

 Change in Proportion of Night Crashes with 

Drinking Driver

State 1999 to 2008 1999 to 2008

                    Percentage of Fatal Crashes Occurring at Night ‐ drivers 20 and older

1999 2008

South Carolina 40.4% 20.3% 47.9% 35.4% 18.5% 74.3%

South Dakota 34.4% 50.0% 27.4% 61.8% ‐20.2% 23.5%

Tennessee 37.4% 30.0% 37.9% 26.9% 1.3% ‐10.2%

Texas 42.7% 32.4% 47.2% 28.1% 10.5% ‐13.3%

Utah 31.7% 25.7% 33.1% 15.5% 4.3% ‐39.5%

Vermont 33.7% 54.5% 15.7% 35.7% ‐53.3% ‐34.5%

Virginia 37.6% 27.7% 42.7% 27.0% 13.6% ‐2.4%

Washington 36.3% 29.5% 37.8% 25.7% 4.1% ‐12.9%

West Virginia 37.4% 47.3% 37.4% 41.5% ‐0.2% ‐12.3%

Wisconsin 34.0% 30.9% 35.9% 30.3% 5.7% ‐2.0%

Wyoming 35.3% 37.9% 38.2% 43.9% 8.1% 16.0%

11

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