an analysis of jenga using complex systems theory
DESCRIPTION
An Analysis of Jenga Using Complex Systems Theory. Avalanches. Wooden Blocks. Spherical Cows. By John Bartholomew, Wonmin Song, Michael Stefszky and Sean Hodgman. Jenga – A Brief History. Complex Systems Assignment 1:. Developed in 1970’s by Leslie Scott - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
An Analysis of Jenga Using Complex Systems Theory
By John Bartholomew, Wonmin Song, Michael Stefszky and Sean Hodgman
Wooden Blocks
Avalanches
Spherical Cows
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
• Developed in 1970’s by Leslie Scott
• Name from kujenga, Swahilli verb “to build”
• Israel name Mapolet meaning “collapse”
Jenga – A Brief History
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
• Game involves stacking wooden blocks
• Tower collapse game over
Jenga - The Game
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
• Why would Jenga be Complex?
• Displays properties of Complex Systems
• Tower collapse similar to previous work on Avalanche Theory
Jenga - A Complex System?
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
• Emergence• History• Self-Adaptation• Not completely predictable• Multi-Scale• Metastable States• Heterogeneity
Jenga - A Complex System?
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Motivation?
Ultimate Jenga
Strategy
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
http://www.ffme.fr/ski-alpinisme/nivologie/photaval/aval10.jpg
http://landslides.usgs.gov/images/home/LaConchia05.jpgMotivation
Frette et al. (1996)Turcotte (1999)
Power Law
Self Organizing CriticalityFrette et al. (1996)
• Theory Proposed by Bak et al. (1987)
• Dynamical systems naturally evolve into self organized critical
states
• Events which would otherwise be uncoupled
become correlated • Periods of quietness broken by
bursts of activity
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Sandpile modelMinor perturbation can lead to local instability or global collapse – ‘avalanche’
Avalanche size:
2
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Sandpile modelJenga cannot be modelled using the Sandpile Model because:
• We have removed the memory affects
• A more suitable model involves assigning a
‘fitness’ to each level which is altered dependant
on the removal of a block
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Cautious way forward…
• Large: periodic
Small: power lawBretz et al 1992
• Small: periodic
Large: power lawHeld et al 1990
“Experimental results have been quite ambiguous”
Turcotte 1999
• Quasi-periodic behaviour for large avalanches Evesque and Rajchenbach 1989, Jaeger et al 1989
• Power law behaviour Rosendahl et al 1993, 1994, Frette et al 1996
• Played a LOT of games of Jenga ~400• Chose 5 different strategies to play• Recorded 3 observables
– Number of bricks that fell in “avalanche”– Last brick touched before “avalanche”– Distance from base of tower to furthest brick after the tower fell
From This To This
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
What We Did
Strategies
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Middles OutMiddles Out
Middle Then SidesMiddle Then Sides
ZigZagZigZag
Side 1 Side 2
JENGA JENG
A
JENGA
Side 1
JENGAJENGA
Side 1 Side 2
JENGA JENG
A
JENGA
All Outside BricksAll Outside Bricks
Side 1 Side 2
JENGA JENG
A
JENGA
AND FINALLY…AND FINALLY…
An optimal game strategy An optimal game strategy where we would start from where we would start from
the bottom and work our way the bottom and work our way up, pulling out any bricks up, pulling out any bricks
which were loose enough to which were loose enough to pull out easilypull out easily
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
• Compare strategies to see if any patterns were emerging
• Compare more ordered methods of pulling bricks out to the random optimal strategy
• See if strategies used had a large impact on the data obtained. Whoooooaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!
Many Strategies So We Could …
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
• We hoped to see at least some emerging signs of a complex system as more data was taken
• We assumed the distance of blocks from base would be Gaussian to begin with but maybe tend towards a power law
• Perhaps some patterns relating to strategies used and observables
What We Expected
• Analysed number of blocks before tower collapse
• Separately for each strategy and combined
• Results show stability regions for many strategies
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Results – Stability Regions
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Results – Different Strategies
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Maximum Distance of falling Block
Not Enough Data to definitively rule out one distribution, Gaussian and Not Enough Data to definitively rule out one distribution, Gaussian and Cauchy-Lorentz look to fit data quite wellCauchy-Lorentz look to fit data quite well
Results
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Results – Step Size Blocks Removed
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Results – Step Size Blocks Remaining
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Results – Step Size Maximum Distance
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Results – Memory effects?
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Universality of network theory:Topology of networks explains various kinds of
networks. • Social networks, biological networks, WWW Why not Jenga?
Modeling – Another Spherical Cow?
Look at Jenga layers as nodes of a network with: specified fitness values assigned to each layer, and each layer is connected to the layers above it.
This simplifies the picture for us to look at 18 layers, not at all 54 pieces!!
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
- As mentioned before, the sandpile model eliminates least fit cells of sand Selection law: life is tough for weak and poor!
- The whole system self-organizes itself to punctuated equilibriums due to the memory effect.
- Our case is a bit different.
Sand-pile model Toy model
Attack the least fit cell Attack the fittest layer
Neighbors to the leastfit cell attackedsubsequently
Layers above theattacked layer are attacked subsequently
Modified sandpile model
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
• We describe stability of each layer by fitness• Fitness = 1 indicates stability, and fitness below a threshold value is unstable.
• AlgorithmWe tested values for: - threshold fitness between 0.2-0.3 - strength of attack 0.3-0.5 with randomness added i.e. human hands apply attack with uncertainty in strength value (shaky hands).
Each attack affects the layers above with decreasing attack power.
Repeat the attack until a layer appears with fitness lower than the threshold.
Stack a layer on the top for every 3 successions of attack.
Outcomes? Distributions for: Maximum height layer index number
average fitness
Magic number!!- There is always some magic number turn that you are almost guaranteed to have a safe pass at the turn!!!!
Fitness & The Magic Number
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Playing Jenga is a random walk process!!!!Real data analysis shows the random walk process by
exhibiting Gaussian features in fluctuation plots.
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Accordance with the data• No indication of power-law behavior because of the absence of memory• Gaussian, and Poisson distributions emerge instead.
In the case of the model:
Whoever takes the 7th turn is almost guaranteed a safe pass.
The Toy Model mimics the emergence of stability regions and gives an indication about the gross
behavior of the ‘Jenga’ network. • Allows us to see the Jenga tower as a cascade network.
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
And the magic number emerged…..
• Randomness in all strategies• Step size structure due to artificial memory• Modified sandpile model: directed network• Model mimicking real situation: Emergence
of stability regions • Complex structure identified but more data
needed
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Conclusions
• Bak et al., Self-organized Criticality, Phys. Rev. A. 31, 1 (1988)
• Bak et al., Punctuated Equilibrium and Criticality in a simple model of evolution, Phys. Rev. Lett. 71, 24 (1993)
• Bak et al., Complexity, Contingency, and Criticality, PNAS. 92 (1995)
• Frette et al., Avalanche Dynamics in a pile of rice, Nature, 379 (1996)
• “Jenga”, Available online at: http://www.hasbro.com/jenga/• Turcotte, Self-organized Criticality,
Rep. Prog. Phys. 62 (1999)
Complex Systems Assignment 1:
Bibliography