an imagination breakthrough: offshore wind energyns2/ae4803/bbell.pdfan imagination breakthrough:...
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An Imagination Breakthrough:Offshore Wind Energy
Alternative Energy TechnologyInnovations:The Coming Economic BoomSavannah, GeorgiaMay 12, 2005
Benjamin BellGE Energy
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2Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
OverviewOverview
• Why Wind?• Why Offshore?• The Technology• Wind Energy Economics• Wind Energy Market• The Arklow Project
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3Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Why Wind?Why Wind?• Fastest growing energy
source• Costs dropped 90% in 20
years• Growing
demand/incentives for green energy
• Wind is lowest cost renewable and can generate bulk power
• Fuel price uncertainty (gas & oil)
• Energy security
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4Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
• Energy Security• Distributed Generation
• Low Vulnerability
• Fuel Security• Zero Fuel Price Risk
•• Policy IssuesPolicy Issues• Zero Emissions
Wind: A Technology For Future GenerationsWind: A Technology For Future Generations
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5Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Source: Lawrence Berkeley LabBiomass : Direct fueled
0
5
10
15
20
25
WindWind SmallSmallHydroHydro
FuelFuelCellCell
BioBioMassMass
SolarSolarThermalThermal
SolarSolarPVPV
CoalCoal GT CCGT CC SCSC NuclearNuclear
Renewable Generation:Renewable Generation:
Wind is Cost CompetitiveWind is Cost Competitive
Wind: The Most Practical Renewable TechnologyWind: The Most Practical Renewable Technology
Conventional Generation:
Conventional Generation:
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6Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Next 5 Years (GW)US 7.7 LA 1.8Canada 1.0
US – Potential Continues to GrowUS – Potential Continues to Grow
m/sec> 8 7- 86- 74- 6<4
Wind Speed
LIPA: 5.2 GW within 3-6 miles
Nantucket Sound Cape Cod, MA
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7Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
24% of nation’s electric
load7% of nation’s electric
load
Why Go Offshore in the Southeast?Why Go Offshore in the Southeast?
• No windy lands near many load centers in the Southeast
• Transmission barriers on land for long distances
• Strongest winds reside offshore
Source: W. Musial, NREL
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8Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Global Market Forecast
Wind - Double Digit Growth OpportunityWind - Double Digit Growth Opportunity
Other Asia Americas
Europe
MW
Inst
alle
d
Source: BTM Consult
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9Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Wind - Double Digit Growth OpportunityWind - Double Digit Growth Opportunity
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Global Market Forecast
OffshoreEuropeAmericas
Onshore
Source: BTM Consult
Inst
alle
d M
W
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10Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
GE Energy
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11Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
GE Energy – What We DoGE Energy – What We Do• Wind Turbine Design &
Manufacturing
• Operation, Maintenance & Repair Service
• Installation & Commissioning
• Project Engineering & Site Layout
• Project Management
• Project Financing
• Project Development Assistance
• Community Education & Acceptance
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12Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Wind Technology
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13Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
RatedCapacity
Rotor Diameter(s)
3.6 MW Offshore
104 m, 111 m
Onshore and Offshore Wind EnergyOnshore and Offshore Wind Energy
1.5 MW
70.5 m, 77 m, 82.5 m
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14Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
The 1.5 MW Series Wind TurbineThe 1.5 MW Series Wind Turbine
• Key Facts• 70.5, 77, and 82.5 meter
rotors• 65 - 80 m heights for
optimal energy capture • Electrical blade pitch
system• 50/60 Hz versions
available• Over 2,500 machines in
operation
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15Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Wind Turbine LayoutWind Turbine Layout
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16Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
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17Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
160 MW Offshore Farm – Horns Rev, North Sea
The Offshore ProjectsThe Offshore ProjectsThe Offshore Projects
Location Country Online No. MW Mfg. Water Foundation DistanceDepth m (ft) Tripod Gravity Monopile from Shore
Norgersund (SE) Sweden 1990 1 0.22 WindWorld 7m (23ft) 0.03 km (100 ft)Vindeby (DK) Denmark 1991 11 4.95 Bonus 3 - 5m (10 -16ft) 1.5 km (.9 mi)Lely (NL) Holland 1994 4 2 NedWind 5 - 10m (16 -33ft) 0.75 km (.5 mi)Tuno Knob (DK) Denmark 1995 10 5 Vestas 3 - 5m (10 -16ft) 6 (3.7 mi)Dronten (NL) Holland 1996 28 16.8 Nordtank 5m (16ft) 20 (12.5 mi)Gotland (SE) Sweden 1997 5 2.75 WindWorld 6m (20ft) 3 (1.9 mi)Blyth Offshore (UK) UK 2000 2 3.8 Vestas 8m (26ft) 0.8 (0.5 mi)Middelgrunden (DK) Denmark 2001 20 40 Bonus 3 - 6m (10 - 20ft) 3 (1.9 mi)Utgrunden (SE) Sweden 2001 7 10 GE Wind 7 - 10m (23 - 33ft) 8 km (5 mi)Yttre Stengrund (SE) Sweden 2001 5 10 NEG Micon 6 - 10m (20 - 33ft) 5 km (3.1 mi)Horns Rev (DK) Denmark 2002 80 160 Vestas 7 - 10m (23 - 33ft) 25 km (15.5 mi)Samso (DK) Denmark 2003 10 23 Bonus 11 - 18m (36 - 59ft) 3.5 km (2.2 mi)Frederikshavn (DK) Denmark 2003 4 11 V, B, N 7 - 10m (23 - 33ft) 3 (1.9 mi)Nysted (DK) Denmark 2003 72 158.4 Bonus 6 - 10m (20 - 33ft) 12 km (7.5 mi)Arklow (IE) Ireland 2003 7 25.2 GE Wind 5 - 10m (16 - 33ft) 10 km (6 mi)
Totals 266 473 1 114 144
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18Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Offshore Today - Subsidized Pilot ProjectsOffshore Today - Subsidized Pilot Projects
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19Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
40 MW Bonus Middlegrunden Farm in Copenhagen Harbor
10 MW NEG Micon Yttre Stengrund
Offshore Sweden
160 MW Vestas Offshore Farm – Horns Rev, North Sea
10 MW GE Wind at Utgrunden, Sweden
5 MW Bonus Vindeby Wind Farm – Offshore Denmark
The Offshore ProjectsThe Offshore Projects
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20Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
The GE 3.6 MW Offshore Wind TurbineThe GE 3.6 MW Offshore Wind Turbine
• Key Facts• 104 to 111 meter rotors• Enables wind projects
to be sited near load centers
• Specialized systems for the offshore environment:Onboard cranes, specialized coatings, redundant systems
• 50/60 Hz versions
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21Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Offshore Wind Turbine Foundation TypesOffshore Wind Turbine Foundation Types
(Source: Jan van der Tempel, TU Delft )
Gravity Monopile Tripod
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22Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Specialty Equipment - Mayflower
(Source: Mayflower)
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23Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Laying of Sea CablesLaying of Sea Cables
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24Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Operations & Maintenance
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25Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Wind Energy Economics
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26Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
The Cost of Wind EnergyThe Cost of Wind Energy
•• The Cost of Energy (COE) for wind can be The Cost of Energy (COE) for wind can be calculated:calculated:
COE ($ / kWh) = Capital Recovery Cost + O&M / kWh / Year
–– kWh / year = the amount of energy productionkWh / year = the amount of energy production–– The Capital Costs of a wind project include site acquisition, The Capital Costs of a wind project include site acquisition,
permitting, installation, balance of plant, financing, legal permitting, installation, balance of plant, financing, legal support, local taxes, insurancesupport, local taxes, insurance
–– Capital Recovery = the cost of Debt and EquityCapital Recovery = the cost of Debt and Equity–– O&M Costs = cost of operating and maintaining a wind plantO&M Costs = cost of operating and maintaining a wind plant
No Fuel Costs: The Wind is Free!No Fuel Costs: The Wind is Free!
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27Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Cost of Wind Energy
Cost of Wind Energy
TurbineSize
TurbineSize
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Size (KW)
Cost ($/kw)
$0.00
$0.02
$0.04
$0.06
$0.08
$0.10
$0.12
$0.14
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
A Steady Decline in the Cost of Wind EnergyA Steady Decline in the Cost of Wind Energy
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28Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Bottom Line: 1981-1999 = 30x the power, 2.7x the cost;1999-2001 = 2x the power, 1.2x the cost
1981 1985 1990 1996 1999 2001Rotor (Meter) 10 17 27 40 50 70KW 25 100 225 550 750 1,500Total Cost $65 $165 $300 $580 $730 $1,300Cost/kW $2,600 $1,650 $1,333 $1,050 $950 $790MWh 45 220 550 1,480 2,200 5,600
Growing Economies of ScaleGrowing Economies of Scale
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29Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Wind Energy Market
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30Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Market – Tax IncentivesMarket – Tax Incentives
•• US market characteristics US market characteristics –– PTC boom and PTC boom and bustbust•• Production Tax Credit Production Tax Credit -- federal credit $18 /federal credit $18 / mWhmWh, ,
10 yrs10 yrs•• Short eligibility windows Short eligibility windows -- 11--2 year extensions2 year extensions
•• Boom in PTC years, bust in non PTC yearsBoom in PTC years, bust in non PTC years•• PTC cycle provides urgency to order turbinesPTC cycle provides urgency to order turbines
•• Pushing for 5 year PTC extension, 2 years likelyPushing for 5 year PTC extension, 2 years likely
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31Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Market – ProductionMarket – Production•• 2005 GE North American orders2005 GE North American orders
•• 2003 result, 50% + of market2003 result, 50% + of market•• Market leader Market leader –– due to track record, GE name, due to track record, GE name,
featuresfeatures•• GE capacity sold outGE capacity sold out
•• US delayed PTC extension in 2004 delayed ‘04 US delayed PTC extension in 2004 delayed ‘04 ordersorders
•• PTC extended to 12/05, boom rush of ordersPTC extended to 12/05, boom rush of orders•• ~1,100 units in 2005, record year (2003 record was ~1,100 units in 2005, record year (2003 record was
580 units)580 units)•• GE “ sold out” a result of constrained PTC GE “ sold out” a result of constrained PTC
timing in US markettiming in US market
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32Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Market - EconomicsMarket - Economics
•• Capital costsCapital costs Onshore OffshoreOnshore Offshore•• Turbine and towerTurbine and tower 75%75% 47%47%•• Install and BOPInstall and BOP 20%20% 48%48%•• Development / otherDevelopment / other 5%5% 5%5%•• TotalTotal 100%100% 100%100%
•• Typical total costsTypical total costs•• Varies with site specific costsVaries with site specific costs•• Transportation, installation, interconnectionTransportation, installation, interconnection•• For offshore: Water depth, distance from shore, For offshore: Water depth, distance from shore,
significant wave height, extreme wave heightsignificant wave height, extreme wave height
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33Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Deeper SitesUS Average Depth = 15 mEurope Avg. Depth = 11 m
Stdev = 4 m
Toward Deeper Depth• Larger Depth for Better Wind & Environmental Impact • Traditional Foundation Concepts Get Cost Prohibitive • Calls for New Foundation Beyond Monopile
Foundation & Installation Costs vs. Depth
Higher Installation Costs OffshoreHigher Installation Costs Offshore
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34Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
The Arklow Project
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35Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
The Arklow Project – 25 MW, 7 x 3.6MW WTGsThe Arklow Project – 25 MW, 7 x 3.6MW WTGs
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36Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Arklow 3.6 MW Machines in Staging Area
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37Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Transporting the Blades from Brazil
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38Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Arklow 50m Blades in Staging Area
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39Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:
The Coming Economic Boom May 12, 2005
Service Personnel Climb Aboard
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Thank You!
For more information,please contact:
Benjamin BellOffshore Sales - AmericasGE Energy(603) [email protected]