For more information or to subscribe, email ClimateUpdate@agriculture.gov.au

15 October 2015 The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares

This week’s report contains an update on the Australian winter crop prospects. See section 2 for more detail.

Summary of key issues On 7 October the Bureau of Meteorology issued a revised seasonal outlook for October which is

significantly different from its previous forecast on which ABARES’ September issue of the Australian Crop Report was based. ABARES has therefore undertaken a preliminary revision of the current crop outlook taking into account the revised seasonal outlook.

For Australia as a whole, total winter crop production is now expected to be around 5 per cent lower than the September forecast of 41.4 million tonnes.

For the major winter crops, the most significant revision is expected to be for wheat, with production now expected to be more than 1 million tonnes less than the September forecast of 25.3 million tonnes. Revisions of national production of barley and canola are expected to be marginal at this stage.

For the major cropping states, winter crop production has been revised down by: around 10 per cent in Victoria from the September forecast of 5.7 million tonnes; close to 10 per cent in South Australia from 7.5 million tonnes; close to 5 per cent in Western Australia from 15.8 million tonnes; and around 5 per cent in New South Wales from 10.5 million tonnes. For Queensland winter crop production is not expected to be significantly below the September forecast of 1.8 million tonnes. See section 2.

During the week ending 14 October 2015, rainfall was recorded in isolated areas of Western Australia, the Northern Territory, Queensland, and South Australia, and most of New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.

Maximum and minimum temperatures were above average across much of southern and central Australia during the week ending 13 October 2015.

A special climate statement, released by the Bureau of Meteorology on 7 October 2015 indicates that an exceptional hot spell affected large parts of southern Australia at the beginning of October 2015.

According to the Australian Plague Locust Commission, the spring outlook for locust activity is for areas of high density nymphs and numerous bands to develop in some eastern areas of Central West New South Wales.

The 2015 El Niño and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole events have both continued to strengthen during the past two week. These two events coupled with cooler than normal waters to the north of Australia, may further contribute to drier than normal conditions currently being experienced across much of the Australian continent.

2

1. Climate

1.1. Rainfall this week

During the week ending 14 October 2015, rainfall was recorded in isolated areas of Western Australia, the Northern Territory, Queensland, and South Australia, and most of New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. Rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres was recorded in isolated areas of northern Western Australia, the far-west coast of the Northern Territory, north coast and southern Queensland, scattered areas of New South Wales, and eastern and central Victoria. The highest recorded rainfall total was 128 millimetres at Corsis, south of Cairns in north Queensland.

The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.

For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml

Rainfall for the week ending 14 October 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 14/10/2015

3

1.2. Temperature anomalies this week

Maximum temperatures were above average across much of southern and central Australia during the week ending 13 October 2015, while northern Australia and an area on the South Australian - Western Australian border recorded average to below average temperatures. Parts of south-west Western Australia recorded temperatures between 8 and 12 degrees above average for this time of year.

Minimum temperatures were generally average to above average across much of southern and central Australia during the week ending 13 October 2015, while areas of northern Australia recorded average to below average temperatures for this time of year.

Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards.

For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 13 October 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 14/10/2015

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 13 October 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 14/10/2015

4

1.3. Special Climate Statement

Special Climate Statement 52 – Early-season heat across southern Australia, released by the Bureau of Meteorology on 7 October 2015 indicates that an exceptional hot spell for early October affected large parts of southern Australia at the beginning of October 2015. Initially, emerging in Western Australia on 1 October, significantly high daytime maximum temperatures were reported across much of the south-west of the State. The heat extended over southern parts of South Australia and into western Victoria by 3 October. Temperatures peaked between 4 and 6 October with early-season temperature records set over southern South Australia, large parts of Victoria, Australian Capital Territory, southern New South Wales and Tasmania.

Maximum temperature anomalies of hottest day in the 1−6 October 2015 period

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 07/10/2015

5

1.4. Australia Plague Locust

The Australian Plague Locust Commission (APLC) produces a monthly Locust Bulletin during the seasons of locust activity (spring, summer and autumn). The Bulletin gives regional summaries of the locust situation and weather events of potential significance for locust development. It also provides a forecast of likely developments for the next two months (or from autumn to spring) for the Australian plague locust Chortoicetes terminifera, spur-throated locust Austracris guttulosa, and the migratory locust Locusta migratoria.

According to the APLC, the spring 2015 outlook for locust activity is for areas of high density nymphs and numerous bands to develop in some eastern areas of Central West New South Wales. More localised high density nymphs are likely in the Northwest and southern Riverina New South Wales, and Central West and South Central Queensland. Low densities are expected in the other regions of eastern Australia. Spring hatching will continue in Central West New South Wales, and commence in the Riverina and northern Victoria in early October. There is a low risk of widespread infestations across regions in spring.

For further information, go to http://www.agriculture.gov.au/pests-diseases-weeds/locusts/

Australian Plague Locust Distribution 15 September to 03 October 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources Issued: 07/10/2015

6

1.5. Rainfall forecast

The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres is likely across areas of eastern Western Australia, western and south-east South Australia, eastern and western Victoria, eastern New South Wales, the north coast and south-east of Queensland and western Tasmania

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 15 to 22 October 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 14/10/2015

1.6. ENSO Wrap-up

While the 2015 El Niño in the tropical Pacific ocean is the strongest seen since 1997, its equivalent in the Indian Ocean—the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—is now at levels not seen since late 2006. The strong El Niño is expected to last until at least the end of the year before declining in the first quarter of 2016; however the positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to decline much earlier, with climate model guidance suggesting that this will begin in November 2015.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central to eastern tropical Pacific continue to warm, further enhancing the current El Niño event, while waters south of Indonesia have continued to cool, strengthening the positive IOD. Likewise, waters to the north of Australia have also cooled over the past three weeks, which may further contribute to the drier than normal conditions currently being experienced across much of the Australian continent.

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the anomalous warmth in the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to peak around the end of 2015. Typically, El Niño peaks during the late austral spring or early summer, and weakens during late summer to autumn.

Four out of five international climate models suggest the strong positive IOD event will persist into November, but decline rapidly as the monsoon trough shifts south over the IOD region, changing the wind patterns. This change means the IOD pattern is no longer able to form in the ocean.

El Niño is usually associated with below-average spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and increased spring and summer daytime temperatures in Australia south of the tropics. A positive IOD typically reinforces the drying pattern, particularly in the southeast.

7

2. Update on Australian winter crop prospects

2.1. Spring seasonal conditions

Seasonal conditions in the Australian winter cropping regions have generally been unfavourable in the first half of spring. Rainfall has been generally below average across the major winter cropping regions and daytime temperatures have been above average in southern Australia during early October. According to the latest seasonal outlook issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 7 October 2015 (see figures below), drier and warmer than average seasonal conditions are likely to continue during the remainder of October, but there is a higher likelihood of average to above average rainfall in November.

The current outlook is significantly different from the Bureau of Meteorology’s previous forecast on which ABARES September edition of the Australian Crop Report was based. ABARES has therefore undertaken a preliminary revision of the current crop outlook taking into account the Bureau of Meteorology’s revised seasonal outlook. The revised winter crop forecasts are presented below. ABARES will continue to monitor closely the development of seasonal conditions and the impacts on winter crop production.

2.2. Winter crop production prospects

Queensland

Prospective winter crop yields in Queensland have not been significantly affected by drier than average seasonal conditions during spring because crops were generally well developed at the beginning of spring. Harvesting of winter crops has begun in central and south-western Queensland. However, later planted crops in south-eastern Queensland are currently in the grain filling stage and prospective yields for these crops could be adversely affected by below average rainfall in the remainder of October. For Queensland as a whole, winter crop production is not expected to be significantly below the forecast of 1.8 million tonnes presented in the September 2015 issue of the Australian Crop Report at this stage.

New South Wales

Prospective crop yields have been reduced across the winter cropping regions during early spring. In southern and north west New South Wales, warmer than average daytime temperatures have significantly affected crop prospects. Crops in southern New South Wales are most vulnerable to below average rainfall in the remainder of October because these crops are in earlier stages of development. Winter crop production in New South Wales is now expected to be around 5 per cent lower than the September forecast of 10.5 million tonnes.

Victoria

Yield prospects in all major cropping regions in Victoria have been adversely affected by the unfavourable seasonal conditions in early spring, and generally, to a greater extent than in other states. In the Wimmera and Mallee, in particular, seasonal conditions were also unfavourable during winter and yield prospects were already relatively poor at the end of winter. Prospective crop yields in Victoria are the most vulnerable to possible adverse seasonal conditions in the second half of spring. At this stage, winter crop production in Victoria is forecast to be around 10 per cent lower than the September forecast of 5.7 million tonnes.

South Australia

The unfavourable seasonal conditions have adversely affected yield prospects, particularly in some central cropping regions. Prospects in the Mallee and much of the south east were already below average at the end of winter. Crops in many other parts of the state are almost ready for harvest and are unlikely to be significantly affected by further unfavourable seasonal conditions. Later developing crops, such as those in the Mid North region, will be more vulnerable to further adverse seasonal conditions. For South Australia as a whole, winter crop production is expected to be close to 10 per cent lower than the September forecast of 7.5 million tonnes.

Western Australia

Prospective crop yields in Western Australia have been reduced by the unfavourable seasonal conditions in early spring. Yields prospects in parts of the northern and central regions of the cropping zone, which had relatively low levels of soil moisture at the end of winter, have been most affected. Below average rainfall in October would have the largest impact on later sown crops and crops in the central region of the cropping zone. Harvesting has begun in some regions. For Western Australia, winter crop production is expected to be revised down by close to 5 per cent from the September forecast of 15.8 million tonnes.

8

2.3. Total winter crop production

For Australia as a whole, total winter crop production is expected to be revised down by around 5 per cent at this stage from the forecast of 41.4 million tonnes presented in the September issue of the Australia Crop Report.

The most significant revision among the major crops is expected to be for wheat, with production now expected to be lowered by more than 1 million tonnes from the September forecast of 25.3 million tonnes. Revisions to national production of barley and canola are expected to be marginal at this stage, reflecting differences in the stages of crop development and the regional crop distribution.

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall October 2015

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall November 2015

9

3. Water

3.1. Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 14 October 2015 by 236 gigalitres (GL) and are at 47 per cent of total capacity. This is 18 percentage points or 4 121 GL less than at the same time last year.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 14 October 2015 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

10

3.2. Water allocations The current water allocations for the 2015–16 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table.

In New South Wales, general security allocations increased in the Murray, Murrumbidgee, Lachlan

and Gwydir catchments.

In Victoria, high reliability allocations increased in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe, Loddon,

Bullarook and Broken systems.

Allocations at 15 October 2015 (%) 1 October 2015 (%)

New South Wales General security

High security

General security

High security

NSW Murray Valley 12* 97 6* 97

NSW Murrumbidgee Valley 29* 95 27* 95

NSW Lower Darling 0* 20 0* 20

NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong Valley 7* 100 7* 100

NSW Hunter Valley 100 100 100 100

NSW Lachlan Valley 25 100 20 100

NSW Lower Namoi 0* 100 0* 100

NSW Upper Namoi 60* 100 60* 100

NSW Gwydir Valley 5.28* 100 4.89* 100

NSW Border Rivers 100 a

/ 9 b

100 100 a

/ 9 b

100

NSW Peel Valley 17* 100 17* 100

Victoria Low

reliability High

reliability Low

reliability High

reliability

Victoria Murray Valley 0 82 0 76

Victoria Goulburn 0 72 0 69

Victoria Campaspe 0 51 0 50

Victoria Loddon 0 56 0 54

Victoria Bullarook 0 4 0 0

Victoria Broken 0 8 0 4

South Australia High

security High

security

South Australia Murray Valley 100 100

*Carryover water may also be available a General security A class. b General security B class

11

4. Commodities

4.1. Production and commodities

The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$223 a tonne in the week ending 13 October 2015, compared with US$225 a tonne in the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$171 a tonne in the week ending 14 October 2015, compared with US$176 a tonne in the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$439 a tonne in the week ending 13 October 2015, compared with US$427 a tonne in the previous week.

The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US68.9 cents a pound in the week ending 14 October 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week.

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US14.1 cents a pound in the week ending 14 October 2015, 4 per cent higher than the previous week.

Data from Brazil’s Sugar Industry Association indicates that as at 1 October 2015, around 444 million tonnes of sugar cane had been crushed in Brazil’s Central South region (which produces around 90 per cent of Brazil’s sugarcane) in the 2015-16 season (April to March), compared with around 441 million tonnes over the same period a year ago. Compared with the same time last year, sugar production over the same period fell by around 7 per cent while ethanol production rose by around 3 per cent.

The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $285 a tonne in the week ending 14 October 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week.

The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $285 a tonne in the week ending 14 October 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week.

The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $259 a tonne in the week ending 14 October 2015, 4 per cent higher than the previous week.

The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $542 a tonne in the week ending 12 October 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week.

The young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 525 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Queensland in the week ending 9 October 2015, 6 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle indicator price fell by 4 per cent in New South Wales to average 578 cents a kilogram and by 2 per cent in Victoria to average 565 cents a kilogram.

The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 483 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 9 October 2015, 10 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price fell by: 5 per cent in New South Wales to average 490 cents a kilogram; 3 per cent in South Australia to average 492 cents a kilogram; and 8 per cent in Western Australia to average 412 cents a kilogram.

The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1 195 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 8 October 2015, 2 per cent lower than the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was 3 per cent higher than the previous week.

12

4.2. Selected world indicator prices

13

14

4.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices

15

4.4. Crop indicator prices

16

4.5. Livestock indicator prices

17

5. Data attribution Climate

Bureau of Meteorology

Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp

Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead

Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml

ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/

Water

New South Wales

New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/

New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx

Available water determinations register:

http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination

Queensland

Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au

Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au

South Australia

SA Water: https://www.sawater.com.au/community-and-environment/the-river-murray/river-reports/daily-flow-report

South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au

Victoria

Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au

Commodities

Fruit and vegetables

Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au

Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum

The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx

Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs

Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets

Pigs

Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au

Canola

Weekly Times: hardcopy

Dairy Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/