analsyis 2 demographic change

8/6/2019 Analsyis 2 Demographic Change

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Analysis Dossier 2

EUKN Knowledge Dossiers

EUKN Secretariat

The Hague, June 2010


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EUKN

Laan van N.O. Indi 300

2593 CE The Hague

The Netherlands

Phone +31 70 344 09 66

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email [email protected]

www.eukn.org

EUKN, 2010


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1 Introduction1.1 EUKN Knowledge Dossiers

EUKN is one of the major European knowledge dissemination networks

for urban professionals. The key objective of EUKN is to enhance the

exchange of knowledge and expertise on urban development throughout

Europe, bridging urban policy, research and practice. EUKN aims to

support urban (local) professionals in their effort to strengthen the

socio-economic position of cities. As a knowledge network, EUKN is

characterised by a demand-driven approach, based on the needs of

urban practitioners and policymakers. Over the past five years, the

network has built an extensive, high-quality knowledge database, basedon shared standards and protocols. This extensive e-library provides

free access to case studies, research results, policy documents, context

issues, network descriptions, updated news and meetings. These

documents can be easily accessed through EUKNs European portal

website: www.eukn.org.

Currently, EUKN is entering a new phase. One of the main objectives of

this new phase is to strengthen EUKN as a learning platform. EUKN as

an urban learning platform enables urban professionals and

practitioners to access valuable knowledge on a wide range of urban

issues and actively engage with other urban professionals. Through an

interactive approach EUKN contributes to capacity building andenhances the effectiveness of urban policy initiatives. The development

of topical knowledge dossiers forms part of this process.

This document is structured as follows:

The first part of the dossier is an in-depth analysis of the scope ofthe topic and the trends and developments in different EU member

states. This analysis addresses the main challenges related to

demographic change and its impact on the urban structure. It

additionally presents a number of interesting case studies, focussing

on these challenges.

The second section of the dossier lists a number of key research,policy and practice documents. Detailed descriptions of these

documents can be found in the EUKN e-library: www.eukn.org.

The third part of the document consist of interviews with key stakeholders in the field, frequently asked questions and an overview of

relevant organisations active in the field of integration.

The fourth section of the dossier gives an overview of relevantstatistics.
http://www.eukn.org/http://www.eukn.org/http://www.eukn.org/http://www.eukn.org/


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In the annex, more background knowledge is provided ondemographic change policies in Czech Republic, Denmark and the

Netherlands.

This knowledge dossier is a growing document, which will be adapted on

the basis of input provided through the EUKN website. Urban

professionals are able to leave comments on a dedicated blog and or

contact the Secretariat to discuss certain aspects of the dossier.

Furthermore, round table sessions are organised around the theme of

this dossier, stimulating interactive knowledge exchange in relation to

implementation challenges.

1.2

Demographic challengesDemographic change has been an important topic in the past decade

and current developments such as the economic crisis and the pension

crisis have made the topic even more urgent and relevant on the

European agenda. Demographic change is a term that encompasses

several developments. These developments include among others

ageing and population decline, as well as regional and international

migration.These trends interact in different ways. A population decline

contributes for example to ageing, whereas population change in core

cities is influenced by suburbanisation. These and other demographic

trends are determined by low fertility rates, high European life

expectancy, increased mobility and migration.

The impact of an ageing population and mass migration are felt

throughout Europes society. Simultaneously, growing big cities and

population decline (shrinking cities) will have enormous physical, social

and economic implications for European urban structures. With

population decline, for instance, the need for public facilities (i.e.

schools, libraries, shops, sport clubs, roads, hospitals) and the housing

need are falling. However, European countries are affected in different

ways and deal differently with the challenges it poses. In other words,

the impact of demographic change will differ from region to region.

The demographic composition of European regions

The Randstad region in the Netherlands, the Barcelona region in Spain

or the economically strong regions in western Germany, are regions

that may continue to grow. More generally, Spains population is

forecasted to increase by 6 million and the French population will rise to

almost 72 million by 2060, due to its effective family policies and

support of working women.


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Other regions continue to shrink, such as the northern part of the UK

(e.g. Liverpool), where new figures indicate that this city is expected to

shrink by 2%, while the total UK population will rise by around 11% by

2017. Another region that has to deal with shrinking for several years

already, is the eastern part of Germany (e.g. Leipzig, Halle). The figures

for Leipzig over the last 90 years are presented subsequently:

The populations of Romania and Bulgaria, parts of Poland, and the non-

EU countries further to the east will alsocontinue to shrink, mostly due

to decreasing birth rates or migration to western Europe1. At the same

time populations in the EU are ageing, albeit at different paces and with

huge regional differences. This is for example the case in Ireland,

Sweden, Bulgaria and the Netherlands. These countries are particularly

fast ageing2. Small countries like Luxembourg, Cyprus or Ireland tend to

grow due to the special economic role they play in Europe.

(Im)migration is an interesting aspect in this discussion on population

changes. This trend is seen as a crucial factor to maintain population

growth and stimulate economic activity (to cover up shortages in thelabour market). However, Eurostat points out that migration and

immigration might not be enough to reverse the trend of population

decline in many European countries3.

1Berlin Institute, Europes demographic future, 2008, p.6

2 Mapping Regional Demographic Change and Regional Demographic Location Risk inEurope, May 2008, p.8

3 Eurostat,A survey of demographic trends , 26 August 2008


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The rest of the dossier will not address migration in relation to

demographic change. More information on integration/migration can be

found in the dossier on Integration of Ethnic Minorities and Migrants at

the EUKN website: www.eukn.org/dossiers.

This analysis will emphasise the impact of demographic change on the

urban structure. The following questions will be addressed: What are

the main demographic challenges in Europe? What does the EU do to

assist Member States and cities in coping with demographic change?

What are the effects of demographic change on urban areas? What

instruments can cities apply to tackle demographic change?

These questions will be addressed in three sections, which make up the

analysis:

1. Trends and developments in EU Member States2. EU context3. The demographic future of European cities


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2 Trends & developments inMembers States

As acknowledged in the introduction, demographic change is a very

broad notion, comprising social and physical aspects. As the dossier can

impossibly be exhaustive on this topic, the analysis will discuss three

main concepts of demographic change in the EU:

Ageing: a shift in a cities population towards older ages Shrinking cities: cities facing severe population decline Urban sprawl: the spreading outwards of a city and its suburbs

to its outskirts

2.1 AgeingMost European Member States experience demographic change

characterised by an ageing population, with rising old age dependency

ratios (the ratio of people aged 65 and older to people aged 15 to 65).

To mention an example: the share of over 75-year-olds in the Italian

region Liguria, the highest figure in all Europe (13%), is set to rise to

18% by 2030. Furthermore, in the region Chemnitz in eastern Germany,

the share of 75-year-olds will nearly double, from 10% to 19% in

20304.

More generally, in the early 21st century around one in five Europeans

was aged 65 years or older, with an old age dependency ratio of four

working-age people for every senior citizen. According to the World

Health Organisation, this ratio is projected to double by 2050. The

European Union will thus move from four persons of working age for

every senior citizen to only two. Following this trend, the total

population in 2050 will be slightly smaller and considerably older than it

is today. This is illustrated in the following figure.

4 Berlin Institute for Population and Development, Europes Demographic Future, 2008,p.8
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suburbhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suburb


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The working-age population in 2060, for the whole EU, will be smaller

by almost 50 million people compared to 2008. Over the same period,

the population aged 65 years or over is projected to increase by almost

67 million people. The old-age-dependency ratio in 2060 will therefore

be more than double its current level: an increase of 28.1%. Moreover,

the above graph illustrates that the old-age dependency ratio in 2060

will vary among countries by almost 30% from the lowest to the highest

rate. In 2008, the difference was 14%. What can be concluded from the

graph is that although the dependency ratio will increase for the whole

group, individual countries will be affected differently5.

Ageing is not only a European problem: the entire world is rapidly

ageing. As stated by Gaign & Thisse in their working paper on Aging

nations and the future of cities: the United States old age dependency

is expected to be lower than Europe, with a rise from 19% to 32%. In

contrast, the ratio is expected to be higher in Japan, with a rise from

25% in 2000 to 72% in 2050 6. But not only developed countries

experience ageing populations: 70% of all older people now live in low

or middle-income countries, where ageing is occurring much faster than

in the developed world (WHO).

Impact on the urban structure

Shifts in the age structure of the European population will have a

particular strong impact on the local level. First of all, because an

ageing society will put immense pressure on social and health care

systems. These systems need to be paid for by taxes and incomes of

5 EUROSTAT, population projections, June 2008

6 GAIGN, C. & THISSE, J.F., Working Paper SMART Aging nations and the future ofcities, July 2009, p.4


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the working age people. Yet, while the number of older people is

growing and the share of those of working age is decreasing, there will

be less income compared to higher expenditures for pensions, health

and long term care7. As a result, the future sustainability of pension,

health care systems and labour supply is under threat. Andrea

Winkelmann-Gleed presented a possible solution in her research on

Demographic change and implications for workforce ageing in Europe 8.

According to Winkelmann-Gleed should the generations after the baby

boomers save more money, pay higher taxes and work longer. Other

innovative concepts to deal with an ageing population, such as healthy

ageing and age-friendly cities, will be discussed in chapter four.

Furthermore, a shift in the age structure will directly affect social and

public services, spatial planning and housing. These changes are taking

place on a more physical and micro-level. As people grow older, their

needs are changing. Elderly people are increasingly facing mobility

problems, health issues and problems with appropriate housing. As a

result, seniors tend to spend more time at home or in the immediate

outdoor surroundings than younger people do. For that reason, city

administrations should respond to changing demands regarding health

care, social services, public transport, housing, and spatial planning.

One can think of safe pavements and cycle tracks; more public parks

and green spaces; easy accessibility of public buildings; online shopping

services; elderly homes; affordable, adapted houses and the support of

local initiatives on helping elderly people move around9.

7 Joint Programming Initiative (JPI) More Years Better Lives: http://www.jp-demographic.eu. Website last consulted on June 30, 2010

8 Andrea WINKELMANN-GLEED, Demographic change and implications for workforceageing in Europe - raising awareness and improving practice , August 2008, p.33

9 Committee of the Regions, How to promote ageing well in Europe, 2009, p.16
http://www.jp-demographic.eu/http://www.jp-demographic.eu/http://www.jp-demographic.eu/http://www.jp-demographic.eu/


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A successful practice regarding public transport can be found in the

Netherlands. The youngest province in the Netherlands, Flevoland,

suffered drawbacks in their regional public transport system: lack of

buses in the evenings and at weekends, suspension of certain lines and

a lack of public transport within the vicinity of homes. For the ageing

population, ill and handicapped people, there was thus a greater need

for public transport.

This is why the region of Flevoland implemented in 2001 a new concept:

la carte public transport. It combines taxi-style service with

traditional public transport. With one phone call, an itinerary is

organised on request to take the traveller where he or she wishes,

including places inaccessible to the public transport lines. The la carte

pub lic transport is entirely oriented towards peoples needs. And this is

important, as senior citizens need services adapted to their particularneeds. This public transport system ensures the mobility of the elderly

people and therewith promotes their social well being and quality of life.

The successful example of Flevoland has been retrieved from the

Regional policy responses to demographic challenges report of the

European Union, Regional Policy. More information regarding this case

can be found on: www.eukn.org/dossiers/demographic_change

Other instruments and tools which local practitioners and policy makers

can use to ensure an age-friendly city, are presented in the report: How

to promote ageing well in Europe . This paper has been initiated by the

Committee of the Regions (CoR) and AGE - the European Older Peoples

Platform and presents projects funded by various EU programmes.

In short, ageing of the population (but also shrinking) have fundamental

repercussions for health and social security systems, for the economy

and the labour market, and for public finance. Ageing leads to increased

demand for health and long-term care and rising health care

expenditure. Demographic change is without doubt of far-reaching

importance

for the economy and society, since demographic decline strongly

influences almost all relevant areas of policy action10.

10Regions 2020, An Assessment of Future Challenges for EU Regions, November 2008
http://www.eukn.org/dossiers/demographic_changehttp://www.eukn.org/dossiers/demographic_change


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2.2 Shrinking citiesAccording to Eurostat projections, Europe will become the first continentthat has to deal with a severe population decline by 2035. European

cities experience shrinking, due to depopulation of their city centres or

inner-city areas. Urban shrinkage is thus an important and, at the same

time, complex phenomenon. Thinking in terms of growth has always

dominated urban planning. Yet, according to Koen Elzerman in his

master thesis onA future with shrinkage, challenges of housing market,

liveability, regional politics, economic viability and provision and quality

of facilities are a direct result of declining populations11.

Economic developments form an important and influencing context for

shrinking cities. It can cause shrinking cities, for instance, as industrial

transformations lead to a diminishing of certain industrial sectors and

therewith a part of the population in that area. Additionally, shrinking

can be a result of spatial planning, for example through polarisation:

one particular region becomes stronger than other regions or cities in

the area. Furthermore, shrinking (cities) could be the result of

population policies of local governments. However, the actual shrinking

of a population could also be ascribed to demographic trends such as

ageing and selective migration12.

In many European countries, including Spain, Poland, the Netherlands,

or Romania, shrinking cities have only been an issue for several years.

However, in Germany it has already been an important concern formany years. Magdeburg is a good example. About ten years ago, the

municipality drew the conclusion that there was a surplus of 30,000

flats in the city. Until the late nineties, Magdeburg thought, and was

hoping, that the citizens would return as long as the neighbourhoods

were renovated and new apartments were built. Nevertheless, the

awareness that population decline would be permanent, came late.

Even though many European countries are nowadays dealing with

shrinking cities, the gravity and pace of this demographic trend varies

across the EU. This is illustrated in the following graph:

11 Elzerman, K., A Future with Shrinkage: What is a suitable policy response toshrinkage?, April 2010, p. 1

12 Based on Dutch report by KEI kenniscentrum stedelijke vernieuwing, KEI-overzicht:Krimp, p. 4


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Wikipedia, European Population Growth 2006

This map shows a diversity of population decline and population growth

throughout Europe. The eastern European countries are visibly more

affected with population decline than western or northern European

countries, where populations are growing 0,5% to 1%. However, as

mentioned before, there are strong regional differences that determine

the degree of shrinking in a particular region or city area.


According to a survey of the CEMR on The Impact of Demographic

Change on Local and Regional Government, population decline leads to

economic problems for the private sector, as declining populationsdemand fewer private services and products13. Additionally,

municipalities will face problems regarding public services, as fewer

resources are available to finance the same fixed costs of

infrastructures like water and energy supply, public transport or

wastewater treatment, as well as (social) public infrastructures

including schools, child care facilities, libraries and swimming pools. The

13 Council of European Municipalities and Regions (CEMR), The Impact of DemographicChange on Local and Regional Government, May 2006, p.4


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financial burden per capita is consequently rising, as it is impossible for

municipalities to reduce their services at the same rate as that of

population change, decline or ageing. On top of that, public services are

of general interest, which is why there are limits to reducing or

discontinuing these services14.

Moreover, shrinking populations (like ageing populations) have a great

impact on the housing market. The dramatic development in eastern

Germany since the fall of the Berlin Wall, for instance, has led to more

than a million empty apartments and the abandoning of countless

industrial parks. In this region, and other typical shrinking regions such

as Parkstad Limburg (the Netherlands), the number of dwellings are

very high, compared to a decreasing demand. Potential entrants have a

very large choice to make when they decide to live in cities. And a lot of

choice means generally that less dwellings will be exploited; leading tovacancy and decay. Another effect of a shrinking population on the

housing market is a decreasing rent, due to an oversupply of the real

estate stock. The influence of the oversupply provides a reduction of the

value of real estate, due to a direct link between rent and the price of

real estate15.

New vision on dealing with shrinking cities

For many years population decline has been regarded as a long-term

problem. Many European cities neglected the importance of this issue,and argued that shrinkage is not a permanent problem. Local

governments therefore started to build more apartments or renovate old

dwellings and offered more services to attract citizens. However, the

effort of local governments and their approach did not succeed: citizens

did not return. As Elzerman states in his thesis on a future with

14 Idem

15 R. van Hooijdonk & P. Rietberg, Real estate market analysis and investmentdecisions, 2010)


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shrinkage: it is now necessary to accept the facts of the situation

concerned and start thinking in terms of shrinkage. Derks, Hovens and

Klinkers (2007) describe this transformation of thinking in terms of

growth towards thinking in terms of shrinkage as a mourning process.

This process consists of five developmental stages:

1. Confrontation with shrinkage

2. Denial and condemnation

3. Resistance: planning for growth

4. Acceptance

5. Actively involving shrinkage in policy making

The first stage of this process consist of the confrontation of local

governors and policy makers with shrinkage in their area of activity. As

a response, they will first tend to deny and condemn the situationbefore adjusting their actual policy making (stage 2). As a result, policy

makers and practitioners aim at turning shrinkage into growth; building

houses to facilitate the growth and at the same time to win the

competition for inhabitants. This can be typified as resistance: policy

makers keep on falling back on the old principles of growth 16. However,

it is unrealistic to think that one could fight the demographic changes in

this way. It is better to abandon the habit of planning for growth and

focus on the challenges and opportunities of a future with shrinkage.

The fourth stage of the process, acceptance of shrinkage, is necessary

(and thus a vital precondition) for involving shrinkage in policy making.

As Derks et al. state: The pace in which this stage is reached depends

on the willingness of local governors, policy makers and other

stakeholders like inhabitants and entrepreneurs17. After full acceptance

of the situation, actively involving shrinkage in policy making can

become effective. According to Elzerman, the policy making can

comprise traditional planning tools like demolition of vacant buildings,

as well as alternative planning tools like art, culture, communication

and the empowerment of social networks (p. 37).

Opportunities of shrinking

The effects caused by urban shrinking present economic and social

challenges for local governments. As a result, practitioners and policy

makers are increasingly investigating innovative and creative solutions,and suitable policy responses to fight the consequences of a declining

and ageing population. In this context, the housing market and

structure of supplies will need to be targeted to new housing wishes and

changing living requirements of its population. Furthermore, old,

16 Elzerman, K. A Future with Shrinkage: What is a suitable policy response toshrinkage?, April 2010, p. 28/29

17 Derks, W., P. Hovens & L.E.M. Klinkers: Structurele bevolkingsdaling; een urgentenieuwe invalshoek voor beleidsmakers. Presentation at Region Westelijke Mijnstreek,Sittard: 1st November 2007, p. 25-31


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unattractive dwellings need to be demolished and replaced by more

green spaces, low construction or nursing homes, to accommodate the

rising number of elderly people.

Additionally, local governments should invest in age-resistant housing.

This concept is based on the theory that dwellings need to be available

to residents at different stages of life. So ideally, any home should be

ergonomically suitable for any other resident. This concept is still very

new, as developers have no direct interest in providing quality. Hence,

improvements concerning usability still need to be made.

Finally, shrinkage could be counteracted by making a city more

attractive. Municipalities naturally seek to attract and to keep residents

in their cities. Yet, this should not be achieved through competition with

other municipalities in the area. Instead, cities should work together totackle demographic challenges and focus on their particular strengths.

Services, for instance, can be provided in a more efficient and

innovative way through the principle of shared services or by

outsourcing the services.

Shared services is interesting for smaller cities and villages, as it brings

together services under one roof, leading to more efficient and effective

service provision in the area. One example of shared services can be

found in Ten Boer, the Netherlands. This municipality (7,431

inhabitants) in a rural area in the north of the Netherlands has

established an extreme form of cooperation with the municipality of

Groningen, as it becomes increasingly difficult for small municipalities to

execute all tasks on an adequate and qualitative level by itself. The civil

service is too small.

Key issues of the cooperation between Ten Boer and Groningen:

- Ten Boer remains, as independent municipality, to determine itsown policy and management;

- Executive tasks are carried out by employees of the municipalityof Groningen;

- Most of the Ten Boer municipality employees started working forthe municipality of Groningen. Only 15 civil servants remainemployed by the municipality of Ten Boer. They formulate the

commands to the municipality of Groningen and execute control

over the implementation;

- A very important principle is that the residents of themunicipality Ten Boer should suffer no adverse effects of this

cooperation; common front office duties remain therefore

possible in the municipality of Ten Boer;


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- Through this cooperation, Ten Boer can offer quality of itsservices, by putting the services under the roof of a (bigger)

city18.

2.3 Urban SprawlPresently, most of the world population live in urban areas. This means

that more than a quarter of the European Unions territory is directly

affected by urban land use. By 2020 approximately 80% of the

Europeans will be living in urban areas. The various demands for land in

and around cities are therefore becoming increasingly urgent. Accordingto the European Environmental Agency (EEA), rapid, visible and

conflicting changes are taking place, modifying landscapes in cities and

around them as never before.

Coasts and resident communities, as an example, are being urbanised

at an increasing pace, in order to accommodate new economies. These

places are becoming consequently ever more intertwined with the

surrounding area and become more dependent on tourism and

secondary homes. As the European Environmental Agency states in its

report on Urban Sprawl in Europe The ignored challenge: cities are

spreading, minimising the time and distances between and in-and-out of

the cities (p.5). The expansion of cities throughout Europes

countryside is also referred to as urban sprawl. This phenomenon is now

regarded as one of the major common challenges facing urban Europe

today19.

Urban sprawl is a typical US phenomenon that appeared in the first part

of the 20th century. In that time, US cities could be characterised by

high rates of private car ownership, developments of detached houses

with gardens and rapid growth, leading to an outward expansion of US

cities. Yet, in Europe sprawl evolved slowly, as European cities have

been much more compact. European cities such as Paris, London, and

Brussels, have experienced sprawl to some extent in the late 20 thcentury, even though they remained far more compact than their

American counterpart. Nowadays, cities from Luxembourg to Budapest,

from Madrid to Istanbul experience accelerating sprawl and therewith

increased automobile traffic, CO2 emissions, energy consumption, land

18 Shared services bij de overhead, Ten Boer-Groningen:www.sharedservicesbijdeoverheid.nl/praktijkvoorbeelden?category=Meerdere+terreinen&id=61. Website last consulted on June 30, 2010.

19 European Environment Agency (EEA), Urban Sprawl in Europe- the ignoredchallenge, 2006, p. 5
http://www.sharedservicesbijdeoverheid.nl/praktijkvoorbeelden?category=Meerdere+terreinen&id=61http://www.sharedservicesbijdeoverheid.nl/praktijkvoorbeelden?category=Meerdere+terreinen&id=61http://www.sharedservicesbijdeoverheid.nl/praktijkvoorbeelden?category=Meerdere+terreinen&id=61http://www.sharedservicesbijdeoverheid.nl/praktijkvoorbeelden?category=Meerdere+terreinen&id=61


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fragmentation, natural resource degradation, watershed damage,

farmland decline and social polarisation.

Typically, these changes are more drastic in the southern, eastern and

central parts of Europe, where housing plots sprawl outward from the

cities with little regard for planning or the environment. This is

acknowledged by Attila St, expert of urban sprawl affairs at VTI

(Hungary). According to Attila, sprawl as an uncoordinated expansion of

towns is a general problem in Central-Eastern Europe, where most of

the biggest centres of the settlement network and their metropolitan

areas are suffering from this problem. He continues that the main

reasons for urban sprawl are environmental and economic ones. Attila:

A deprivation of inner urban territories can be observed, the quality of

built environment is in decline, the internal districts are crowded,

polluted and dirty, and the quality of public services are getting worse.

This is not an attractive environment for young, skilled people, whomove to bigger free, open areas close to the city (to read the whole

interview with Attila St, please read page 41-43 of this dossier or

visit www.eukn.org/dossiers/demographic_change).

Though, it should be noted that urban sprawl does not only occur in

former communist countries. It also take place in countries or regions

with high population density and economic activity (i.e. Belgium, the

Netherlands, southern and western Germany, northern Italy, the Paris

region), or countries with rapid economic growth (i.e. Ireland, Portugal

eastern Germany or the Madrid region). More generally, sprawl is

evident in member states or regions who have benefited from EU

regional policies. Urban sprawl is thus a common phenomenon

throughout Europe20.


Urban sprawl is an important issue, due to the major impacts that are

evident in increased energy, land and soil consumption. These impacts

threaten both the natural and rural environments, raising greenhouse

gas emissions that cause climate change, and elevated air and noise

pollution levels. The impact of urban sprawl has direct effect on the

quality of life for people living in cities. Despite these disadvantages of

urban sprawl, some people might argue that urban sprawl illustrates

positive growth of a local economy.

20 Idem, 2006, p.9


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Compact building

To preserve the quality of life, open spaces and a healthy environment

for people living in cities, local governments started with smart

growth. This urban planning concept incorporates more compact

building design as an alternative to conventional, land consumptive

development. The compact building design suggests that communities

be designed in a way which permits more open space, and that

buildings should be constructed which make more efficient use of land

and resources. It thus encourages buildings to grow vertically rather

than horizontally. As a consequence, the compact building approach is

efficient by requiring less land for construction and at the same time it

provides and protects more open, undeveloped land. It is additionally

cheaper to provide and maintain services like water, sewer, electricity,phone service and other utilities in more compact neighbourhoods than

in diffused areas.

Westerdokeiland, Amsterdam

The Westerdokeilandin Amsterdam is good example of smart growth in

the Netherlands. The city of Amsterdam has little choice: it must grow.

Since density building in the surrounding area is undesirable, the city

needs to apply compact building. The new Westerdokseiland project

goes furthest in this development. It is situated only 800 metres from

the busiest public transport interchange in the Netherlands: Amsterdam

central station. That brought a new super-dense urban neighbourhood,

with fascinating, but also great complexity. It is the most compact

urban area in the Netherlands, with 175 to 300 dwellings per hectare.

The Westerdokseiland consists of four large blocks crossed by narrow

streets. It includes a total of 940 homes, 900 indoor parkings, 7000

square meters of office, 1800 square meters artist studios and 850

square meters kindergarten. Hence, it is clear that the limits of compact

building have achieved here21.

In short, smart growth recognises, as seen in the above mentioned

example, connections between development and quality of life. This is

important, so that communities are able to continue to grow, but at the

same time preserve the vitality of city centres, open spaces and otherenvironmental amenities for its citizens22.

21 Volkskrant, Steeds meer bewoners per vierkante meter stad, 10 April 2009

22 Retrieved from website: www.smartgrowth.org, Principles of Smart Growth.
http://www.smartgrowth.org/http://www.smartgrowth.org/http://www.smartgrowth.org/


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Westerdokeiland Photo: Mart Grisel


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2.4 ConclusionCities continue to change. We identified three important processes atthe heart of these changes: the pains of growing cities, the symptoms

of stagnating or declining cities and ageing populations. Each of these

trends affect the urban environment in such a way that infrastructure,

the housing market, and social and public services need to be adapted

accordingly, to respond to the changing needs of elderly, youngsters

and families living in cities.

The main challenge of ageing populations, on macro level, is the

continuity of pension systems. The number of working age people is

diminishing compared to a rise in the share of elderly people, leading to

higher expenditures for pensions, health and long term care. This higher

expenditure needs to be paid for by taxes and incomes of the working

age people, which, as mentioned above, are decreasing.

On micro level, the main challenge of ageing populations is the

provision of public and social services and housing. As senior citizens

become less mobile, it becomes more important that urban development

is adapted to their particular needs. This include for instance homes

with elevators and specialised bathrooms, more green spaces, online

shopping services, online government services and other online services

and so on.

Main challenges for shrinking cities lie at the rearrangement or

reorganisation of the public services. Because there are less resources

available to finance the same fixed costs for infrastructures, public

transport, schools, libraries and wastewater treatment. Municipalities

can tackle this problem through the concept of shared services: offering

high quality services via other municipalities (thus cooperating and

sharing services with other, bigger, municipalities in the area). This

counts especially for rural areas that have less to offer than urban

areas.


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Another challenge of shrinking cities is a change of thinking in terms of

growth towards thinking in terms of shrinkage. The first vision has

dominated urban planning for years, however thousands of empty

dwellings and industrial parks have been the result. Nowadays,

shrinkage has become more accepted and acute, leading to a different

approach to population decline: old, unattractive dwellings/apartments

have been demolished, and made room for low construction and elderly

homes.

Finally, most big (metropolitan) cities are growing. More inhabitants

means, generally, the building of more houses and other facilities.

Smart growth presents therefore a challenge to deal with this outward

expansion of a city in a efficient and compact way. This urban planning

concept incorporates more compact building design as an alternative toconventional, land consumptive development. It fosters/stimulates

urban development (and growth), but at the same time preserves the

quality of life of inhabitants.

The next section of this analysis will define EUs role in assisting

Member States to cope with demographic change.


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3 EU contextThe importance of demographic change and its challenges is widely

acknowledged at the European level. At the 2005 European Summit in

Hampton Court (UK), the heads of government and state agreed that

demographic change is a shared concern across the EU, which is felt by

Europes citizens. In order to deal with demographic changes like

decreasing birth rates and ageing populations, adequate policy

responses are necessary. Most measures to respond to demographic

change will be Member States responsibility whether local, regional or

central since the European Union has no direct competence in dealing

with demographic change. The following communications and papers

show the increasing importance of demographic challenges on EUspolitical agenda and EUs commitment with demographic change.

In 2005, the European Union has published a Green Paper Confronting

demographic change: a new solidarity between the generations . This

Green Paper presented challenges such as low birth rate; the possible

contribution of immigration; better integration of young people, and

solidarity with the senior citizens, to reverse demographic decline and

the weak natural population increase. One of the goals of this green

paper is to include the implementation of the Lisbon Agenda; in

particular regarding the policies focusing on employment, innovation

and increasing productivity. This paper additionally emphasised thenecessity of a continued modernisation of the social protection systems,

particularly pensions, to ensure their social and economic sustainability

and enable them to cope with the effects of demographic ageing23.

Subsequently, the European Commission has put forward a

Communication in 2006 on The demographic future of Europe from

challenge to opportunity. This communication has been established

following hearings with experts, extensive research on demographic

change and a consultation. It is a follow-up of the above mentioned

communication and developed a reference framework at Community

level for Member States' policies. The framework has set out five areas

that respond to a common perspective of restored confidence:

- Promoting demographic renewal in Europe- Promoting employment in Europe: more jobs and longer working

lives of better quality

- A more productive and dynamic Europe- Receiving and integrating migrants in Europe

23 Green Paper Confronting demographic change: a new solidarity between thegenerations, 2005


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- Sustainable public finances in Europe: guaranteeing adequatesocial security and equity between the generations.

More recently, the European Commission has adopted a Communication

on The impact of an ageing population in the EU (2009), accompanied

by an extensive analytical report: the 2009 Ageing Report. These and

other policy reports from the European Union (i.e. 2nd demography

report; Regions 2020- an assessment of future challenges for EU

regions and Europe 2020 - A European strategy for smart, sustainable

and inclusive growth), provide further relevant information on trends in

birth and death rates, migration and life expectancy assumptions,

regional challenges of demographic change, policy implications in

responding to the needs of an ageing population and a new European

strategy on smart, sustainable and inclusive growth.

The abovementioned documents in italic can be found on the EUKNwebsite: www.eukn.org/dossiers/demographic_change.

Besides these European frameworks, the European Union could play a

useful role in facilitating the process of adapting to demographic change

for cities and regions. This is first of all realised through the availability

of funds and programs to give an economic impulse to certain deprived

regions/cities.

E-health (enhanced use of ICT technology in the health care sector), as

an example, is a very innovative and developing concept. ICT plays

nowadays a very important role in our economy. We must therefore

ensure that our economy will benefit from existing and future ICT

possibilities. Above all by investing more in ICT research and

development. This vision is expressed in the Digital Agenda of Mrs. N.

Kroes, EU Commissioner for Digital Agenda, stating that

underinvestment in R&D is not only a problem for the ICT sector, but

for the whole European economy. Hence, ICT is an important theme in

the adopted Europe 2020 strategy.

Another role for the European Union, next to financial support and

project funding, is research and data provision. This includes improved

statistics on demographic trends at local level. Two cities in Europe,

Manchester and Nottingham, specified this request with their need for

better data on migration flows. Besides, the European Union should playa role in policy development. It could support cities in reforming and

renovating their urban infrastructure, and helping them to develop

integrated approaches and better service delivery. These and other

roles for the EU, including stimulation of the exchange of best practices

and policies directed at families, have been identified in the
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EUROCITIES Demographic Change Survey24. Forty member cities, from

23 countries participated in this survey.

Regarding the financial support and project funding, the EU provides

several instruments and programmes that local practitioners and policy

makers could apply. These instruments are presented in the publication

How to promote ageing well in Europe of the Committee of the Regions

(CoR) and AGE, The European Older Peoples Platform25. The following

table summarises a few important programmes:

Instrument Subject

DG Regio- Structural Funds Member States can use the

Structural Funds to respond to

implement projects, for instance in

the field of elderly care.European Regional Development

Fund (ERDF)

The ERDF supports projects on

demographic change, by addressing

regional development, economic

change and enhanced

competitiveness.

INTERREG IV C This programme gives cities and

regions the opportunity to work

together and exchange good

practices and knowledge on the

best ways to meet the needs of

ageing populations in various policyareas.

URBACT II This programme can be used to

develop age-friendly urban policies

and to facilitate the exchange of

experiences between European

cities faced with demographic

changes.

Conclusion

The European Union is concerned with demographic change. Some of its

Member States experience urban sprawl, others shrinking or ageing of

their population. These demographic challenges require a European

strategy. However, as we have seen, the European Union has little

competence in dealing with demographic change. The Union provides for

programmes and projects which local and regional actors could use in

their search for dealing with demographic change.

24 EUROCITIES, Analysis of EUROCITIES Demographic Change Survey 2007, November2007, p. 15

25 CoR & AGE, How to promote Ageing Well in Europe: Instruments and tools availableto local and regional actors, October 2009, p. 27-35


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4 The demographic future ofEuropean cities

4.1 Successful local initiativesPrevious chapters have presented a picture of demographic change

across European Member States; highlighting its impact on the urban

structure. It showed that all (EU) countries are facing demographic

problems that need to be solved. And as we have seen, population

decline, ageing and urban sprawl will have far-reaching consequences

on housing needs, employment and the use of facilities. These

demographic challenges are best dealt with at the local level. Europe in

its diversity of cultures and sensibilities, is a marketplace of ideas,

successes and failures26.

There are two questions still unanswered: How can local authorities deal

with demographic change? And what instruments can cities apply to

tackle demographic change?

As we have seen in previous chapters, countries and cities have been

very active in implementing and creating new initiatives to cope with

the demographic challenges. One of these initiatives include healthy

ageing and age-friendly cities. The concepts will be analysed hereafter.Then, the main points of a case study on Dessau- Rolau are presented

to show other cities how eastern Germany has dealt with population

decline. On top of that, several networks on shrinking (cities) will be

presented.

Healthy Ageing - UMCG

The population in Europe will be ageing. The costs for health care will

rise accordingly. And without adequate/effective prevention, diagnosis

and treatment, these costs will be impossible to bear for future

generations. According to the University Medical Centre Groningen,

there is a lack of basic knowledge about aging processes and there areinsufficient tools for prevention, diagnosis and treatment. Hence, there

is a role for the University Medical Centre Groningen, as the UMCG is

eager to contribute toward resolving the problems that the Dutch

healthcare sector is facing (Erik Buskens, Professor of Medical

Technology Assessment (UMCG). In fact, the UMCG has, as only Medical

Centre in the Netherlands, chosen to embed the theme healthy ageing

in its core business.

26Berlin Institute, Europes Demographic Future, 2008, p.4


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Many researchers at the Medical Centre are dealing with this topic. They

research the possibilities for older people to live longer independently

and healthier through advanced technology. The University Medical

Centre Groningen wants to become a leading centre in the area of

ageing. It has joined forces in 2005 with partners such as the city of

Groningen, the RUG (University), Hanze University of Applied Sciences

Groningen, to further develop Groningen as a city of knowledge and

innovation. The priority areas are energy and healthy ageing. In short,

the UMCG is carrying out research on the possibilities of ageing in the

most healthy way. Many other UMCs could follow their path or join

forces, to exchange basic knowledge and research on healthy ageing

and making healthy ageing possible and more efficient. For more

information on healthy ageing and UMCG, see the interview of UMCG on

page 49- 53 of this dossier.

Global Age-Friendly Cities - WHO

Besides healthy ageing, there are other initiatives and networks

focussing on ageing in a friendly and healthy way. For example the

World Health Organisation (WHO). They have started a project called

Global Age-Friendly Cities. The main aspects of this project include:

- emphasising the lived experience of older people (what seniorsexperience as age-friendly in their daily lives in the community)

and involves them as full partners from start to finish.

- This project aimed at engaging cities all over the world to maketheir communities more age-friendly. Making a city age-friendly

is one of the most effective policy approaches for responding to

demographic ageing. This is true, as cities are major urban

centres, who have the social and economic resources to make

changes to become more age-friendly27.

- WHO has set up the WHO Global Network of Age-Friendly Cities,to support cities in following their approach and to ensure the

quality of the tools and interventions they use.

- In 2007 WHO has published a global guide to help cities becomemore age-friendly, Global Age-Friendly Cities: a guide. This

guide can be found on the EUKN website in the Demographic

Change dossier (www.eukn.org/dossiers/demograpic_change) .

- Cities wishing to become more age-friendly can join the WHOGlobal Network of Age-friendly Cities, by filling in the

application form via: http://www.who.int/ageing/AFCForm.pdf

In summary: adequate measures, research & development, innovation

and investments in the health care sector are necessary to respond to

an increased demand for health and long-term care and higher health

care expenditure in the future.

27 WHO, www.who.int/ageing/age_friendly_cities_network/en/index.html
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Besides initiatives in the field of ageing, there is much effort done to

deal with population decline. The consequences, as we have seen, are

severe and affect public and social services and the housing market. A

shrinking population leads, for instance, to vacancy of houses and

derelict sites in inner cities. As Birgit Glck, social scientist Humboldt

University Berlin, states: the oversupply of housing in eastern

Germany is the result of massive boom in housing investment due to

intense subsidies since unification on the one hand, and a dramatic

depopulation of German cities on the other after unification (see

interview page 37-40). So presently, coping with shrinkage in urban

development is a necessity and the major public policy issue in eastern

Germany.

Case study Dessau - Rolau

Dessau- Rolau, a city in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, has shrunk morethan almost any other municipality in the country. The reason why

young and high qualified people are leaving the city are well known:

after the reunification of Germany in 1990, the industrial sector

collapsed: leaving locals without any means of making a living. This

situation presents a dramatic challenge for cities. The city of Dessau-

Rolau therefore pursues urban restructuring with the aim to support

the development of landscapes and open spaces in inner cities.

The city of Dessau- Rolau has initiated the concept Urban cores -

Landscape Zones. The goal of this project is to strengthen the urban

cores crossed over by green corridors from the surrounding landscape.

Key issues of this project include:

- First sections of the landscape corridors have been realised in2004, in the east and west of the inner city where vacant

residential, office and industrial buildings had been demolished

before.

- In its urban development concept for urban restructuring, thecity has at an early stage focused on the qualitative

development of open spaces in the inner city.

- Although the development is difficult to be implemented on theneighbourhood level, orientation towards the concept is

decisive.

For more information on this case study please visit www.eukn.org

(keywords: Urban restructuring in Dessau-Rolau).


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Furthermore, there are many networks of shrinking cities active in

Europe. To mention only a few:

- www.shrinking cities.com:

A three-year initiative project of Germany's Federal Cultural Foundation,

seeking to expand Germany's city-planning debate - until now

concentrated on questions of demolishing surplus apartments and

improving residential quarters - to address new questions and

perspectives.

- www.shrinkingcities.eu:

By promoting the exchange of scientific knowledge and the stimulation

of new ideas in selected reference cities, the gender-balanced network

with proposers from ten countries will act as a catalyst for new solutions

to deal with demographic changes and to design the restructuring ofshrinking cities in Europe.

- DC NOISE (www.dcnoise.eu):

DC NOISE is an Interreg IVB North Sea Region project. 9 regions from 5

countries in Europe work together to deal with the consequences of

demographic change. The project runs from June 2008 until June 2011.

- The Shrinking Cities International Research Network

(http://www.shrinkingcities.org):

The Shrinking Cities International Research Network (SCiRN) is a

worldwide research consortium of scholars and experts from various

institutions pursuing research on shrinking cities in a global context.

SCiRNs mission is to advance international understanding and promote

scholarship about population decrease in urban regions and urban

decline, causes, manifestations, spatial variations, and effectiveness of

policies and planning interventions.

4.2 ConclusionStrategies at local level

This document has presented several innovative initiatives, networks,and case studies related to demographic change. This section will briefly

describe the most important strategies on ageing, shrinking (cities) and

urban sprawl, at the local level.

First of all ageing: as mentioned before, it poses a threat to the pension

and health care systems. There are obviously many strategies

municipalities could apply to deal with the impact of an ageing

population on the urban structure.


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One important strategy is to raise labour market participation and

employment retention of people over 50 years old. This group is

particularly vulnerable, because if they are getting fired, it is more

difficult to find new employment. Most companies and organisations

want young, fresh employees. A municipality should also promote

longer working lives and lifelong learning strategies to keep the

employees skilled. On top of that, companies should promote

entrepreneurship to increase the working age of people.

A second strategy, in relation to health care systems, is the promotion

of healthy ageing. Some European cities already doing so, such as

This concept should keep the long-term and health care system

sustainable, and at the same time provide high quality services to its

customers. This is/ can be achieved, for instance, through home care.

The installation of new (ICT) technologies in houses can facilitate thisprocess.

Besides, municipalities need to promote the active inclusion of older

people in the community and ensure their equal access to services

(Managing change: impact of demographic ageing for cities).

Concerning shrinking, there has been a great change in strategy to deal

with shrinking. Local policy makers and practitioners used to think in

terms of growth and consequently have built more and more

apartments and flats. However, since several years, municipalities have

come to mind, that building more dwellings and providing more services

is not the solution to keep your residents. They had to come up with

other methods to attract citizens. So, the general approach is that

deprived areas are getting restructured; housing renewal and

improvement of recreational areas together with new facilities for

common purposes in the neighbourhood. This way, local policy makers

are trying to revive a neighbourhood and increase the employment level

and the quality of life.

analsyis 2 demographic change

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