analysing internal causality and sensitivity to derive coastal sea responses
DESCRIPTION
Analysing internal causality and sensitivity to derive coastal sea responses to varying climate and anthropogenic forcing Concept for an SFB at the University of Rostock. Presented by Hans Burchard Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde [email protected]. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Analysing internal causality and sensitivityto derive coastal sea responses
to varying climate and anthropogenic forcing
Concept for an SFB at the University of Rostock
Presented by Hans BurchardLeibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde
Program of this presentation
• The Baltic Sea: a very special marine system• Changing Baltic Sea• Key questions of the SFB• SFB Structure• SFB Model Environment• SFB Graduate School
Baltic Sea drainage area
Mean freshwater run-off:
15000 m3/s
Dann kann aber doch fast gar kein Salz in der Ostsee sein ???
Baltic Sea monitoring
Salinity alongmonitoring section
Source: IOW
Major Baltic Inflow in January 2003
+
Darss Sill: 19 m
Oxygen alongmonitoring section
A century of salinity in the Central Baltic Sea
Graphics: Markus Meier (SMHI)
Phosphate feedback cycle in the Baltic Sea ecosystem
Have we understood triggers and limitations
of cyanobacteria blooms ?
Cyanobacteria observation I – Central Baltic Sea(cell counts)
Suikkanen et al. 2007
1975 1985 1995 2005 1975 1985 1995 2005
no clear long-term trend
no clear correlationbetween cyanobacteria andforcing factors
Cyaonobacteria observation II - whole Baltic Sea(from satellite)
data by Kahru et al. 2007
0
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1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
cyano
Temp
WEP*10
RP*10
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1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
cyano
Temp
WEP*10
RP*10
(graphics by Inga Hense, IOW)
large inter-annual cyanobacteria fluctuations at small variations of forcing
no clear long-term trend
We do not know the limiting and exitating factors for cyanobacteria blooms.
Many knowledge gaps are due to substantial undersamplingin time and space and in regulating parameters.
As long as we do not know how it works today, we have no predictivecapacity for future developments with respect to climate change andanthropogenic change.
19581960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
0,1
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ph
os
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ate
(µ
mo
l/l)
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inflo
w
inflo
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Phosphate concentrations in winter surface layer in the Eastern Gotland Basin
The anthropogenic influence changes:
Reissmann et al., 2007
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5
Temperature deviation (K) from the 1900-1980 mean
Year A.D.
Dalton-min.
Maunder-min.
Spörer-min.
ModernWarm-P.
MedievalWarm-P.
Cold phaseincl. Little Ice Age
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5
Temperature deviation (K) from the 1900-1980 mean
Year A.D.
Dalton-min.
Maunder-min.
Spörer-min.
ModernWarm-P.
MedievalWarm-P.
Cold phaseincl. Little Ice Age
Laminated black mud(anoxic)
Laminated black mud(anoxic)
Light grey homogenous silt
(oxic)
Baltic climate of the past 1000 years
Figure SPM.5
Global climate change: emmission scenarios from IPCC 4th Assessment
http://www.ipcc.ch
Regional climate modeling at the Rossby Centre
Global Regional
Markus Meier (SMHI)
Markus Meier (SMHI)
The coupled system RCAO
Model domain, covering most of Europe and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean and Nordic Seas. Only the Baltic Sea is interactively coupled.
The coupling scheme of RCAO. Atmosphere and ocean/ice run in parallel.
OASIStmod
tcoup
ocean
atmos
rivers
landsurf
iceRCO
RCA
RCA: 44 km, 30 minRCO: 11 km, 10 minCoupling timestep: 3 h
Döscher et al. (2002)
Regionalization is done for ”time-slices” from GCMs
1800 1900 2000 2100
Present-day or a”control” climate
Climate scenario
CO2
Regional simulations
Results archived from a GCM-run
Time
(1961-1990) (2071-2100)
Markus Meier (SMHI)
Markus Meier (SMHI)
Sea surface salinity
Present climateProjection with the largest change
RCAO-E/A2
5 psu
Markus Meier (SMHI)
Markus Meier (SMHI)
Present climateProjection with the largest change
RCAO-E/A2
5 psu
52
77
145
836
1500
Sea surface salinity
Markus Meier (SMHI)
Annual mean SST (in °C) in present climate 1961-1990 (upper left), annual mean bias of simulated present climate compared to climatological data (upper right), and annual mean SST changes for the ensemble average (ECHAM4 and HadAM3H) of the B2 (lower left) and A2 (lower right) emission scenarios. The figure is taken from Meier (2006, Figs.13 and 14) with kind permission of Springer Science and Business Media.
Sea surface temperature:+1.9 … +3.9°C
Markus Meier (SMHI)
Mean number of ice days averaged for RCAO-H and RCAO-E: control (left panel), B2 scenario (middle panel), and A2 scenario (right panel). Figure is adopted from Meier et al. (2004).
Sea ice changes
Key questions of SFB
How can the abstract Baltic Sea response function and its interplay of linear and nonlinear processes be described in terms of logical, mathematical and numerical model components ?
How does the character of Baltic Sea inflow events react to climate change and which impact do these modified inflow dynamics have on the biogeochemical cascades which they trigger ?
How will the intensity and extent of cyanobacteria blooms react to climate and anthropogenic changes, and how will they interact with ecosystem dynamics of the Baltic Sea ?
How will spatio-temporal changes in near-bottom temperature, salinity and oxygen distributions affect the biodiversity and extent of benthic fauna, and which consequences does this have for the benthic-pelagic coupling in the Baltic Sea ?
Key questions of SFB
What is the role of redoxcline processes for overall biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea and how are the communities and processes impacted by external forces (e.g., inflow events, turbulent mixing)?
Final overarching question:
To what extend does changing climate and anthropogenic forcing trigger ecosystem shifts in the Baltic Sea ?
Participating institutes
Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Department of Limnology of Stratified Lakes
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea ResearchWarnemünde at the University of Rostock
Institute of Biological SciencesUniversity of Rostock
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Nörrköping
Structure of the SFB
P1: Pelagic processes – influence of light and inorganic carbon on primary production
P2: Cyanobacteria blooms – dynamics and performance of diazotrophic cyanobacteria
P3: Photorespiration, respiration, photoadaptation, and DNA micro-array
P4:Diatom-dominated biofilmsT1: Biologically mediated particle and solute fluxes between sediment and the benthic boundary layer
T2: Organisms’ functional capacityT3: Quantification of in-situ fluxes at the sediment water interfaceT4: Impact of turbulent transport intermittency on the biogeochemistry of pelagic redoxclines
T5: Small-scale processes in the upper layers of the Baltic ProperM1: Particle-associated carbon turnover origin, decomposition and sedimentation
M2: Structure and function of microbial communities in redox gradientsM3: Biogeochemical element transformations and fluxesS1: Baltic Sea climate reconstructionS2: Analysis of the present Baltic Sea state S3: Climate change and anthropogenic impact scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea
Spatial relation of the subprojects
SFB Model Environment
Logical and mathematical
model
Implementation into SFB-BGC Module
and1D testing
Testing in 3D Ecosystem Model
Process studies P, T & M
System simulations S1, S2, S3
Analysis of process
reproduction
Process understanding
required by models
Interlinking between process studies and modelling system
SFB Integrated Graduate School:
•for all SFB Ph.D. students•interdisciplinary teaching for all together•modelling courses with 1D model system•teaching in statistical methods•exercises in field & lab methods•soft skills •…
After this SFB, we will know far more about the Baltic Sea system than at present.