AnAlysis for Action

2017 Annual Report

2017 Annual Report

MISSION STATEMENT

By undertaking research and data collection in key areas and themes, the Knowledge for Change Program supports the development of effective policies and programs in developing countries with an aim to reduce poverty and promote sustainable development.

vii

CONTENTS

Letter from Senior management of DeveLopment economicS (Dec) 1

meSSage from the WorLD Bank’S reSearch Director 3

i. program goaLS 7

ii. vaLue aDD 7

iii. aBout thiS report 8

iv. BackgrounD 8

v. progreSS anD achievementS 10

vi. kcp financeS 31

annex a: kcp reSearch projectS in profiLe 33

annex B: kcp projectS portfoLio 41

kcp DonorS 59

viii

FIGURES

FIGURE 1. Global Migrant Stocks, 1960 to 2015 4

FIGURE 2. Proposal Selection Process 8

FIGURE 3. KCP II Donor Contributions Received, by Donor 9

FIGURE 4. KCP III Donor Contributions Received, by Donor 9

FIGURE 5. KCP II Donor Contributions Received, by Window 11

FIGURE 6. KCP II Allocations and Distriribution, by Region 11

FIGURE 7. Indicators in FY2017 28

FIGURE A.1 Visualization of Income Distributions 38

FIGURE A.2 Prototype Histogram Display for a Selection of Countries in the Communauté Financière Africaine Currency Union 40

FIGURE B.1 KCP III Allocations by Window 41

FIGURE B.2 KCP III Allocations and Distriribution, by Region 41

FIGURE B.3 KCP III Allocations and Distriribution 42

TABLE B.2 KCP III Allocations and Disbursements 51

BOXES

BOX 1. Financial Crisis and Foreign Bank Lending to Developing Countries 12

BOX 2. Primary Care in Rural India 13

BOX 3. Kagera Health and Development Survey 14

BOX 4. Improved Survey Data Provided Evidence for the Chinese Government to Raise the Poverty Line 15

BOX 5. PovcalNet Do Your Own Poverty Analysis 16

BOX 6. ENVISAGE Helps World Bank Operations to Evaluate the Impact of Climate Change 17

BOX 7. Capacity Building of National Statistics Agencies 21

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TABLES

TABLE 1. KCP II Parent Fund Accounts Statement 18

TABLE 2. New KCP III Projects Approved in FY2017 (US$) 29

TABLE 3. KCP III Parent Fund Accounts Statement 32

TABLE B.1 KCP II Allocations and Disbursements 43

TABLE B.3 Completed KCP II Projects in FY2017 (US$) 55

TABLE B.4 Completed KCP III Projects in FY2017 (US$) 56

TABLE B.5 Ongoing KCP III Projects in FY2017 (US$) 57

1

Letter from Senior management of DeveLopment economicS (Dec)

Everyone agrees that knowledge is critical to development. Analytically

rigorous and empirically corroborated ideas such as open trade regimes,

independent central banks, early childhood development, and condition-

al cash transfers have arguably lifted hundreds of millions out of pover-

ty. There is less agreement on how knowledge brings about change. One,

somewhat traditional approach is to accumulate, often country-specific,

knowledge and give it to a policy maker who, based on the strength of the

evidence presented, takes a decision that affects the welfare of the people

in the country. But policy making is deeply political. Rarely do decisions get

made based purely on scientific evidence. Instead, they get made when

there is a political consensus around that decision. And that consensus is more likely to be sustained

if it emerges from a widespread public debate. A second approach therefore is for the knowledge

generated by research and analysis to be put in the public domain so that it can nourish the public

debate with evidence.

The second approach is how DEC seeks to promote development. All of our knowledge products—

World Development Reports, research papers, databases, global indicators such as Doing Business,

and flagship publications such as Global Economic Prospects—are published and made accessible

(free of charge) to the public so that they can inform the public debates around contentious policy

issues. The research on migration described in this volume is an example. The rhetoric on migration,

especially in the U.S. and Europe, is often at variance with the facts. By undertaking careful, empirical

analysis—based on hard-to-find data—DEC has not only helped to increase the evidence content of

the debate, but also suggested some reasons why the resistance to migration is so strong, thereby

helping to bridge the gap between rhetoric and reality.

Since it could benefit any country that is considering the relevant policy issues and is made available to

the general public at no cost, this knowledge has all the characteristics of a global public good. And,

as with all public goods, there is a temptation for the beneficiaries to “free ride” and let someone

else bear the costs. The Knowledge for Change Program (KCP) is a counterpoint. It is a demonstra-

tion of the global community’s willingness to contribute to the production of this global public good.

Shanta DevarajanSenior Director

2

That donors pool their funds and the resources are allocated on a competitive basis with a strict

governance structure helps protect the “publicness” of the knowledge products that DEC generates.

Moreover, knowledge is not created in a vacuum; it emerges from the exchange of ideas and debate.

The KCP can also serve as a platform where the World Bank and national research communities meet.

In short, the collaboration between DEC and KCP is a partnership, based on mutual trust and under-

standing, that has been both extraordinarily productive—as this report shows—and a success story in

international cooperation. Together, we can work towards achieving the ultimate global public good,

a world free of poverty.

Shanta Devarajan

Senior Director

Development Economics

3

meSSage from the WorLD Bank’S reSearch Director

ADDRESSING THE CHALLENGE OF GLOBAL MIGRATION

The main asset owned by the world’s poor is their labor. Enabling the poor

to make the best possible use of this asset is one of the most direct paths

to alleviating poverty. Whether across sectors, occupations, or physical lo-

cations, the movement of labor to more productive uses is a universal char-

acteristic of all successful development experiences.

Migration across national borders provides perhaps the starkest example

of how big a difference the movement of labor can make. An example

from New Zealand suggests the income gains can be impressive. New

Zealand organizes a visa lottery program—the Samoan Quota & Pacific

Access Category Scheme—that uses a random ballot to allocate visas to citizens of several coun-

tries, among them the island nation of Tonga. A study by McKenzie, Stillman, and Gibson (2010) finds that within a year Tongans who were chosen for visas were earning three times as much as those

who were not selected. These gains persisted even 10 years later.

The rising aspirations of the world’s poor mean that migration will be a fundamental feature of the

world for the foreseeable future. Although migration brings with it clear economic advantages for

migrants, it also raises difficult and often contentious policy questions for destination countries and

the families and countries that migrants leave behind. Often these policy questions are debated in

a vacuum with little data or evidence on the trade-offs between various policy options. But as our

forthcoming Policy Research Report Global Migration and Labor Markets argues, there are many op-

portunities to improve the current situation, for migrants and destination countries.

Myths and Realities of Global Migration

One of the first challenges in discussing policy toward migration is assembling reliable worldwide data

on global patterns. The World Bank has made significant efforts in generating a long-term picture of

the issue with its Global Bilateral Migration Database, which covers 1960 to 2010. Supplemented with

more recent data from the United Nations, we can begin to obtain insights into overall patterns that,

at times, are quite at odds with the prevailing beliefs about migration.

Aslı Demirgüç-Kunt Research Director

4

The percentage of migrants as a share of the world’s population has been stable over the past six

decades.

As of 2016, there were slightly more than 240 million migrants in the world. Although migrant stocks

have grown over time, they have simply kept pace with world population growth—contrary to what

some anxiety-fueled headlines might suggest (see Figure 1). Immigration is highly concentrated in 10

destination countries, which host around 60 percent of immigrants, and this has changed little over

time.

However, what has changed is the global stock of refugees, which are now at a 20-year high. As of

2015, there were an estimated 15 million refugees worldwide. Despite this growth, refugees continue

to make up a small percentage of the total migrant population. It is not so much the total number

of refugees that causes repeated crises, but rather the suddenness of refugee flows and absence of

burden-sharing across countries.

FIGURE 1. Global Migrant Stocks, 1960 to 2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

World migrant population

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

World migrant rate

Mig

rant

s (M

illio

ns)

Wo

rld m

igra

tion

rate

(%)

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015

Source: Data are from the World Bank Global Migration Database (1960–2000), United Nations Global Migration Database (2010–15), and United Nations World Population Prospects.

Migrants are much more educated than in the past.

In 1990, migrants with a tertiary-level education made up only 27 percent of the total stock of migrants.

Two decades later, that Figure had increased to 50 percent. These highly educated migrants are even

more concentrated in a subset of destination countries than the general population of migrants. Just

5

four countries—the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia—account for 75 per-

cent of the world’s highly educated migrants. This has consequences for the distribution of relative

benefits and costs for destination countries as well as origin countries.

Financial factors are the primary but not the only determinant of migration decisions.

Differences in wages between countries play a primary role in the decision about where to migrate.

Migrants are 10 percent more likely to choose a destination country if the mean annual wages are

US$2,000 higher than in an alternative destination. But several other factors come into play. The costs

associated with migration can influence the decision about the destination country, including the

physical distance, process of assimilation, and various psychological costs. These can be mitigated

by factors such as preexisting networks of co-nationals or use of a common language. The policies of

destination countries toward migrants also matter, although law enforcement efforts to discourage

unauthorized immigrants often have a limited effect.

Impact of Global Migration

Convincingly identifying the long- and short-term impacts of migration has proven to be a Gordian

knot within the economics discipline. Migration patterns evolve in tandem with destination countries’

migration policies, making it difficult to identify cause and effect. However, several “natural experi-

ments”—instances of relatively unanticipated, large immigration flows—have helped us identify three

general insights about the impacts of immigration.

First, immigration causes significant dislocation among the native-born citizens of a country, especially

those who compete most directly with immigrant labor. For example, following the fall of communism

in Eastern Europe, Germany implemented a policy allowing Czech workers in certain border munic-

ipalities to work, but not reside, in Germany. There was nearly a one-to-one decrease in native-born

employment—German workers simply moved to other parts of the country.

Second, native-born citizens who do not directly compete with immigrants often experience signif-

icant gains, since immigrants complement their skills. For example, immigration often increases the

quality and quantity of childcare and housekeeping services, freeing up women who are natives of a

country—especially the highly skilled—to enter the labor force. Over the longer run, the greater avail-

ability of household services may even prompt native-born women to invest more in their education.

Third, the impact on wages tends to be small compared with the dislocation experienced by na-

tive-born citizens. Instead of accepting lower wages, natives who directly compete with immigrants

tend to change occupations, sectors, or physical locations, or become unemployed.

In many respects, the impact of migration can be compared with international trade. Although the

overall economic benefits are large, they are not equally shared. But unlike international trade, global

6

migration occurs without a structure of global rules and institutions like the World Trade Organization

to support mutually beneficial cooperation—thus increasing the amount of political conflict and exac-

erbating the hardships many migrants experience.

Better Policies for Migrants and Destination Countries

Economic considerations are only a part of the complex set of issues that inform migration policy. But

economic analysis can help identify policies that can increase the benefits for migrants and destination

countries.

In the current global context where international coordination is largely absent, the responsibility for

policy falls on individual countries. With a few exceptions, most countries’ policies are designed pri-

marily to prevent migrants from entering the country or limit the number of entrants. In many cases,

those who are granted the right to immigrate often face uncertain conditions once in the country, with

temporary work visas and no path to permanent residence. In other words, governments expend a

lot of effort fighting market forces with legal tools, often with limited success. That many migrants risk

their lives to cross oceans on rickety boats highlights how strong the incentives are to move.

Migration is—by and large—a response to financial incentives driven by economic disparities be-

tween countries. Although the overall economic impact of migration is positive, the distributional im-

plications are problematic, whether between migrants and natives or between origin and destination

countries. But policy is made unilaterally by destination countries, often with economic considerations

taking a back seat. The result is economic inefficiency, exploitation, millions of undocumented mi-

grants, and political conflict. Formal and stable frameworks between origin and destination countries

would go a long way toward solving these issues. Since most global migration patterns are domi-

nated by a handful of large corridors, much of the coordination could be accomplished via bilateral

arrangements.

7

I. Program goals

The Knowledge for Change Program (KCP) is a multi-donor trust fund established in 2002 to promote

high quality, innovative research that creates knowledge to support policies for poverty reduction

and sustainable development. Since its inception, the KCP has raised over $60 million and funded

more than 300 projects for research and data collection to support effective policies and programs in

developing countries.

II. Value add

KCP has been an effective tool to pool various funds and intellectual resources. KCP was estab-

lished with several research priorities and maintains rigorous standards in selecting research proposals

for funding. KCP covers a wide range of topics and remains flexible in terms of structure. This has al-

lowed the KCP to meet various donors’ research interests, and accommodate emerging topics within

KCP’s research framework.

KCP provides a transparent process for reviewing and funding proposals through a competitive

process. Over the years, KCP has formulated a set of rigorous and competitive procedures, to ensure

that high quality proposals receive KCP funding. After a Call for Proposals, research teams first pre-

pare a two-page concept note and submit it to their DEC Directors. Directors screen concept notes in

their respective departments for the first round of quality control. For cleared concept notes, research

teams prepare full proposals through the internal Grant Funding Request (GFR) system.

Each full proposal is sent to two to three external subject matter experts to review. External reviewers

rate and comment on each proposal’s analytical design, data, literature, program implementation,

policy relevance, and local capacity building—using a rating scale of 1 to 5. When a proposal receives

overall scores from different reviewers with a difference of 3 and above, it is sent to an additional ex-

ternal reviewer for an extra round of reviews. The rating, comments and recommendations from the

reviewers are shared with the Internal Management Committee (IMC). The IMC is chaired by the head

of DEC, and composed of DEC Directors and the Regional and Global Practice Chief Economists. The

IMC will then meet and decide on funding allocations based on the review process, as well as the

proposal’s overall strategic relevance, and availability of funding.

8

FIGURE 2. Proposal Selection Process

DEC research team submits Concept Note (CN)

DEC Directors screen proposal

If CN is cleared, team prepares full proposal

IMC makes final decision base on external review rating

External subject experts review

Note: CN = Concept Note; DEC = Development Economics Group; IMC = Internal Management Committee.

This process ensures that successful research proposals will use rigorous analytical approaches to yield

valid results and reliable evidence. Data projects will have methodological rigor of data collection and

quality control processes in place.

III. about thIs rePort

This Annual Report is intended to highlight and summarize the results of the KCP from July 2016

through June 2017. This includes the formal closure of Knowledge for Change Program Phase II (KCP

II), ongoing progress of projects within Knowledge for Change Program Phase III (KCP III), and a sec-

ond call for proposals under KCP III.

IV. background

KCP II and KCP III — Contributions and Donors

From its inception in 2008, KCP II, which was formally completed on June 30, 2017, received a total

of US$31 million in contributions from 12 donors. KCP III has received US$11.7 million in cash contri-

butions from seven donors, and an additional US$3.4 million was pledged by the end of June 2017.

The 12 donors of KCP II were the United Kingdom, Finland, Sweden, Australia, Korea, Norway, Cana-

da, Japan, Denmark, Switzerland, China, and Singapore (Figure 2). The seven donors for the ongoing

KCP III are Norway, Estonia, Canada, the United Kingdom, Finland, France, and Sweden (Figure 3).

9

FIGURE 3. KCP II Donor Contributions Received, by DonorFrom Inception to June 30, 2017 (US$ Thousands)

United Kingdom $7,200 à 23%

Switzerland $517 à 2%

Sweden $2,218 à 7%

Singapore $300 à 1%

Norway $3,342 à 11%

Korea, Rep. of $3,468 à 11%

Japan $1,500 à 5%

Finland $6,029 à 19%

Denmark $924 à 3%

China $500 à 1%

Canada $1,946 à 6%

Australia $3,323 à 11%

FIGURE 3: KCP II Donor Contributions Received, by DonorFrom Inception to June 30, 2017 (US$ Thousands)

FIGURE 4. KCP III Donor Contributions Received, by DonorFrom Inception to June 30, 2017 (US$ Thousands)

United Kingdom $1,340 à 11%

Sweden $1,000 à 9%

Norway $5,009 à 43%France $212 à 2%

Finland $3,314 à 28%

Estonia $481 à 4%

Canada $304 à 3%

FIGURE 4: KCP III Donor Contributions Received, by DonorFrom Inception to June 30, 2017 (US$ Thousands)

10

V. Progress and achIeVements

Completion of KCP II

June 2017 marked the official completion of KCP II. Since it became operational in December 2008

and until its official closure on June 30, 2017, KCP II received a total of US$31 million in contributions

from 12 donors, and funded 176 research projects to support finding solutions to a variety of devel-

opment challenges on a wide range of topics.

KCP II in Retrospective

KCP II was originally set up with three windows: Window I: Poverty Dynamics and Public Service Deliv-

ery, Window II: Investment Climate & Trade and Integration, and Window III: Global Public Goods. In

2010, a fourth window was established: Economic Development and Structural Change. The window

was built on the observation that economic development is a process of continuous structural change,

and the market and state both have appropriate roles to play in facilitating structural change in devel-

oping countries. Finland became KCP II’s first signing donor in December 2008. The United Kingdom

was the first donor contributing to the newly established fourth window on Economic Development

and Structural Change, in February 2010.

The distribution of contributions among the four windows was: US$10.5 million (34 percent) to Win-

dow I: Poverty Dynamics and Public Service Delivery; US$5.4 million (17 percent) to Window II: In-

vestment Climate & Trade and Integration; US$7.2 million (23 percent) to Window III: Global Public

Goods; and US$8.1 million (26 percent) to Window IV: Economic Development and Structural Change

(Figure 5).

KCP’s IMC allocated US$28.6 million to 176 projects: 53 projects (US$9.6 million) in Window I, 55

projects (US$5.2 million) in Window II, 35 projects (US$6. 8 million) in Window III, and 33 projects

(US$7.0 million) in Window IV. The majority of projects (78 percent, US$22.4 million) addressed global

issues; US$3.0 million (11 percent) was allocated to projects directly related to Africa; US$2.2 million

(8 percent) to projects directly related to Asia; and about US$ 1.0 million (3 percent) to other regions

(Figure 6). Five projects were dropped due to various reasons beyond the task team’s control, and

those funds were returned to the parent account.

11

FIGURE 5. KCP II Donor Contributions Received, by Window US$ Thousands

Poverty Dynamics & Public Service Delivery

$10,525 à 34%

Investment Climate & Trade and Integration

$5,444 à 17%

Global Public Goods$7,197 à 23%

Economic Development & Structural Change

$8,102 à 26%

FIGURE 5: KCP II Donor Contributions Received, by Window US$ Thousands

FIGURE 6. KCP II Allocations and Distriribution, by Region US$ Thousands

Global $22,534 à 78%

Others $979 à 3%

Asia $2,201 à 8%

Africa $3,017 à 11%

FIGURE 6: KCP II Allocations and Distriribution, by Region US$ Thousands

12

Addressing Emerging Challenges, Striving for Policy Impact

Targeting Knowledge Gaps, Quickly Adapting to Emerging Challenges

KCP II has been an important instrument for addressing pressing knowledge gaps, with a flexibility to

adapt to newly emerging gaps. After the 2008 global financial crisis, KCP II quickly allocated funding

to study the causes of the crisis and analyze manifestations and impacts for developing countries. Such

projects included The Financial Crisis and Foreign Bank Participation in Developing Countries (Box 1);

Globalization, Risk, and Crises; Analyzing the Impact of Financial Crisis on International Bank Lend-

ing to Developing Countries; Will There Be a Phoenix Miracle? Firm-Level Evidence from Financial

Crises; Labor Markets and Impacts of the Financial Crisis: Evidence from China and India; Economic

Growth and Crisis in Africa: Improving Methods for Measuring Poverty; and others.

With climate change and pollution increasingly posing a threat, KCP invested in projects to study

the cost of climate change (for example, Economic Valuation of Losses Due to “Amazon Dieback”;

Sustainable Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity under a Changing Climate; The Economics of

Adaptation to Salinity Intrusion—The Case of Coastal Bangladesh; and Economics of Biofuels and

Potential Impacts on Biodiversity).

Other projects analyzed the impacts of mitigation measures (for example, Improving Efficiency and

Climate Change Mitigation—Electricity Market Competition and Low-Carbon Generation Technolo-

gies; Green Growth Opportunities in Developing Countries; Economic Impacts of Low Carbon Growth

BOX 1. Financial Crisis and Foreign Bank Lending to Developing Countries

The project Financial Crisis and Foreign Bank Participation in Developing Countries

studied how the 2007–08 crisis affected foreign bank lending to developing countries.

It put together a comprehensive, country-level bilateral data set on foreign bank claims

across developing countries. The project quantified the importance, composition, and

growth of foreign bank claims across developing countries before the crisis, and inves-

tigated the changes in foreign bank claims during and immediately after the crisis. The

study finds that heavy reliance on direct, cross-border lending resulted in steeper con-

tractions in total foreign claims during the crisis. In addition, contractions were severer

and recovery was slower in regions that relied heavily on lending in foreign currency. The

results will help developing country policy makers better understand the behavior of

foreign banks and thus adjust their policies to avoid future turmoil.

13

Scenarios in Selected Developing Countries; and Quantifying the Transaction Costs of Selected Ener-

gy Efficiency Measures to Reduce GHG Emissions).

At a time when protectionism was on the rise, KCP II invested in projects like Storage and Trade

Policies for Improving Food Security, and Least Developed Countries and the Externality Impact of

WTO Dispute Settlement to analyze the costs and benefits of trade agreements, providing evidence

for policy making.

Understanding Service Delivery, Achieving Greater Impact

Broad improvements in human development and welfare will not occur unless the poor receive wider

access to affordable and improved services in health care, education, water, and sanitation. A better

understanding of how the delivery of services in these sectors contributes to improving human devel-

opment outcomes, and how to make these services work better for the poor, is critical.

BOX 2. Primary Care in Rural India

In rural India, people often go to private sector “doctors” lacking a formal medical train-

ing. Two KCP projects (“Quality of Care in Health Markets: Supply and Demand-Side

Perspectives”, “Quality of Care, it’s Determinants and how it can be improved”) recruit-

ed and extensively trained people from local communities as “standardized patients”

to present the same medical case to multiple providers and recall the details of their

clinical interactions. The projects found that over half the patients did not receive cor-

rect treatment for uncomplicated presentations of angina, asthma, and diarrhea. The

team also worked with the Liver Foundation and the Government of West Bengal on

a triple-blind evaluation of a training program run by the foundation. The evaluation

showed that the training program significantly increased the likelihood of correct case

management, closing the gap between informal providers and fully trained doctors by

half. Informed by the results, the Government of West Bengal completed a census of

all informal providers (100,000 in the state) and has scaled up the training in batches to

all the providers. The study on the quality of care among informal providers has signifi-

cantly altered the global health community’s fundamental assumptions about informal

providers and the private sector. The results challenge existing assumptions about the

inability of people—especially the poor and the uneducated –to make accurate choices

about their health care.

14

KCP II invested in many projects studying service delivery, for example, HIV/AIDS Treatment and

Prevention; Quality of Care in Health Markets: Supply- and Demand-Side Perspectives (Box 2); Poli-

cy, Governance and the Private Sector in the Provision of Public Services: Evidence from Indonesia’s

Health Sector; An Evaluation of Long-Term Impacts of an Integrated Early Childhood Intervention for

Low-Income Families in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Behavioral Economics for Better Public Service Man-

agement; Quality of Care, Its Determinants and How It Can Be Improved; and others. Many of these

projects generated useful evidence on how to improve services for the poor.

Investing in Innovations in Data Collection

KCP supports innovations in data collection, helping to replace time-consuming and expensive tradi-

tional methods. The KCP II project Kagera Health and Development Survey (KHDS) 2010: Long-Run

Patterns of Growth and Poverty in Africa developed a Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing sur-

vey solution (Box 3). The solution helped quickly provide accurate and comprehensive data inn areas

such as health and development, with bearings on available measurement methods and technologies

to yield this information.

BOX 3. Kagera Health and Development Survey

The Kagera Health and Development Survey (KHDS) developed a computer-assisted

personal interviewing (CAPI) survey solution. The survey was conducted by paperless

interviewing technology using CAPI. The solution sped up the data collection process.

Since data entry was embedded into the interview, identification of errors and missing

field checks were programmed into the questionnaires. Toward the end of the survey,

there were more than 1,400 built-in consistency checks in the program. Before leaving

the household, interviewers ran the final validation check and resolved any problems di-

rectly with the respondent while still in the household. Data were uploaded immediately

from the field to a secure server using GRPS-enabled mobile phone networks. Data from

previous waves were carried forward to the questionnaires, providing the opportunity to

resolve possible inconsistencies between the waves. KHDS is an innovative household

survey that demonstrates how properly implemented surveys generate necessary infor-

mation of sufficient quality and accuracy with speed and at a relatively low cost. Later,

other KCP projects (for example, Functionality to Conduct Complex Household and

Agricultural Surveys with CAPI) continued to invest in improving the CAPI application

to achieve faster, better, and cheaper data collection. The software has since been used

in 85 countries.

15

Promoting Evidence-Based Policy Making

KCP-funded projects have been promoting evidence-based policy making by providing a wide

breadth of statistical evidence and data as a result of project findings and/or over the course of

project implementation. Household surveys are an important source of socioeconomic data. Often

such surveys derive important indicators to inform and monitor development policies in developing

countries.

KCP II supported many data collection efforts as well as survey methodology improvements. Exam-

ples include the Kagera Health and Development Survey 2010: Long-Run Patterns of Growth and Poverty in Africa, Correcting the Sampling Bias of the China Urban Household Survey (Box 4), Tanzania Social Action Funds R3 Survey Support, Improving Data on Population Health and Skills Using Tablet-Compatible Household Survey Diagnostic Instruments, National Account vs. Survey Based Welfare, Survey Data Repository and Management Toolkit, and UNICEF-WHO-The World Bank Joint Child Malnutrition Dataset Expansion.

Devising Tools to Empower Researchers and Policy Makers in Developing Countries

KCP II focused on developing analytical tools to allow policy makers and researchers to generate their

own analysis and produce evidence-based policy. The PovcalNet, Maquette for MDG Simulations,

Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS), and LSMS-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture are some

BOX 4. Improved Survey Data Provided Evidence for the Chinese Government to Raise the Poverty Line

The China Urban Household Survey project helped China’s National Bureau of Statistics

to improve Chinese household survey data and integrate China’s rural and urban house-

hold surveys. The project teams held six training workshops to work with National Bu-

reau of Statistics staff and others, to solve the problems and discuss how to use the data

to provide timely information for policy makers. The data and research findings were

used in urban and rural social protection projects of the World Bank’s China Analytical

and Advisory Assistance (AAA) programs. They were also used by the Chinese Academy

of Social Sciences in a report to establish a social safety net in rural and urban Chi-

na, which was featured in the government’s 12th five-year plan. Based on the research

findings, the authors provided evidence that has resulted in the Chinese government’s

decision to raise the official poverty line to ¥ 6.3 per day in 2011. This was featured in a

2011 article in The Economist discussing China’s poverty line.

16

of the powerful tools that have been developed for economic analyses of poverty trends, structural

transformation, and impacts of various economic interventions (Box 5).

Improved Collaboration between Research and Operations

Research teams in DEC are encouraged to involve their operational colleagues from the early stages

of projects, to assess demand, obtain input, and collaborate on operational projects.

One example is the project on Sustainable Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity under a Chang-

ing Climate developed an Environmental Impact and Sustainability Applied General Equilibrium Mod-

el (Box 7). This model has been mainstreamed as a technical advisory tool, adopted by two World

Bank Global Practices and the Office of the Chief Economist for Europe and Central Asia. These units

maintain and operate the updated model. They provide technical support directly to clients and

World Bank teams working on climate issues, including National Determined Contributions in global

GHG mitigation under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process.

Program Evaluation and Moving Forward

During KCP II’s implementation phase, the World Bank commissioned an independent evaluation of

the program. “The evaluation convincingly confirms that KCP is a truly effective way of supporting

the production of high-quality, policy-relevant research,” Lyn Squire, the main evaluator, stated in the

report. “The KCP has been remarkably successful in achieving its primary objective of promoting ‘high

quality, cutting edge research’…that creates knowledge to support poverty reduction and sustainable

development.”

BOX 5. PovcalNet Do Your Own Poverty Analysis

PovcalNet is an interactive computational tool that allows the user to replicate calcula-

tions made by World Bank researchers in estimating the extent of absolute poverty in

the world, regions, and countries. PovcalNet can also perform a range of simulations

and compute the growth rate needed to reach a poverty reduction goal. During FY2017,

PovcalNet delivered 33.8 million computations for users around the world. All six World

Bank Regions and the Poverty Global Practice use PovcalNet to simulate poverty and in-

equality measures under different scenarios. These outputs have also been used by the

International Monetary Fund, United Nations Development Program, Asian Develop-

ment Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization, International Labor Organization, and

many other organizations in their work and publications.

17

The report also made suggestions in areas of strengthening local capacity building and improving

policy impact. With the discussion and endorsement of the donors at the KCP Consultative Group

meeting in Copenhagen (November, 2012) , several processes and procedures were put in place

to emphasize policy impact and capacity building in KCP projects. These initiatives include giving

additional importance to these areas in the KCP application and reporting process; inviting policy

makers to attend KCP Consultative Group meetings; setting aside 15 percent of the total budget

for proposals with high capacity-building elements; and investing in specific policy-relevant projects

(for example, Operationalization of WDR 2015: Mind, Society, and Behavior, and creating the Mind,

Behavior and Development (eMBeD) Unit).

BOX 6. ENVISAGE Helps World Bank Operations to Evaluate the Impact of Climate Change

The project on Sustainable Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity under a Changing

Climate developed the Environmental Impact and Sustainability Applied General Equi-

librium Model (ENVISAGE). ENVISAGE helps assess interactions between economies

and the global environment as affected by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emis-

sions to analyze a variety of issues related to the economics of climate change, including

baseline carbon dioxide and GHGs, impacts of climate change on the economy, adap-

tation to climate change, and distributional consequences of climate change.

At the time of the project’s conception, the World Bank Group had no analytical tools

that could provide scenario analysis of the impacts of climate change or climate policy

on development issues.

The modeling tools developed have been widely used for better understanding the im-

pacts of climate change for evidence-based policy. In one project, ENVISAGE was used

to quantify and assess the impact of a slowing China and a growing India on the Russian

economy. In another analytical project, on economic modeling for sustained growth in

Slovakia, the project’s macro-modeling team calibrated ENVISAGE on the Global Trade

Analysis Project’s Power database to analyze policies that support sustainable growth

in Slovakia. The computable general equilibrium model was linked to a detailed ener-

gy market model for Slovakia, which allowed the modeling framework to estimate the

economywide effects of detailed energy market policies. The Slovak Ministry of Environ-

ment is planning to use the tools to design policies that will assist Slovakia in meeting

its GHG abatement targets.

18

TABLE 1. KCP II Parent Fund Accounts StatementAs of June 30, 2017, (US$), UNAUDITED

Poverty Dynamics &

Public Service Delivery

Investment Climate & Trade and Integration

Global Public Goods

Economic Development & Structural

Change TOTAL

Contributions received

United Kingdom 2,958,121.54 1,636,727.54 1,684,440.92 920,740.00 7,200,030.00

Finland 1,762,509.21 1,762,509.21 1,762,509.21 741,884.22 6,029,411.85

Sweden 1,472,392.95 28,098.52 696,118.38 21,073.89 2,217,683.74

Australia 1,593,740.00 1,064,580.00 664,580.00 3,322,900.00

Korea, Rep. 1,500,000.00 1,968,064.15 3,468,064.15

Canada 773,402.74 486,942.26 193,517.17 492,536.43 1,946,398.60

Norway 402,855.44 402,855.44 2,133,471.57 402,855.44 3,342,037.89

Japan 1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00

Denmark 924,351.11 924,351.11

Switzerland 62,028.33 62,028.33 62,028.33 330,817.73 516,902.72

China 500,000.00 500,000.00

Singapore 300,000.00 300,000.00

Total contributions received

10,525,050.21 5,443,741.30 7,196,665.58 8,102,322.97 31,267,780.06

Administrative fee (1%) (105,250.50) (54,437.41) (71,966.66) (81,023.23) (312,677.80)

Net contributions received

10,419,799.71 5,389,303.89 7,124,698.92 8,021,299.74 30,955,102.26

Investment income 104,020.77 69,347.42 75,466.05 89,621.89 338,456.13

Less:

Project allocations (9,607,573.09) (5,162,038.81) (6,778,767.92) (7,003,424.72) (28,551,804.54)

Program management and administration

(543,572.97) (198,075.47) (336,523.06)(591,672.33)

(1,669,843.83)

Technical reviewers’ fees

(85,142.09) (60,342.17) (58,141.53) (82,566.65) (286,192.44)

Transfer to donor balance account

(10,708.98) (2,300.46) (10,134.88) (21,793.08) (44,937.40)

ESTIMATED FUNDS BALANCE

276,823.35 35,894.40 16,597.58 411,464.85 740,780.18

19

Progress of KCP III: Ongoing and Completed Projects in FY2017

KCP III funds policy relevant research and data activities in the following themes: Fragility and Risk

Management, Innovation in Data Production, International Cooperation and Global Public Goods,

Service Delivery and Aid Effectiveness, World Bank Flagship Reports, Growth and Job Creation, and

Poverty and Shared Prosperity. By June 30, 2017, KCP III had allocated funding for 51 projects with a

total funding of US$10.3 million.

In FY2017, 17 projects were completed and 33 projects were ongoing. One project was dropped

due to a local partner’s withdrawal, and funds subsequently returned. Tables B.4 and B.5 in Annex B

provide a full list of the completed, dropped, and ongoing KCP III projects. Outputs from this phase

include high-quality papers, databases, policy notes, and research tools covering a broad range of

development topics and issues.

This section provides highlights of completed and ongoing projects by theme. It provides a general

description of each theme and reports more details of one highlighted research project under each

theme.

A. Fragility and Risk Management

The Fragility and Risk Management theme focuses on the challenges of fragile and conflict-affected

areas, which are home to a significant share of the world’s extremely poor. Furthermore, this window

entails research on risk-management policies at the country, regional, or global level under different

sources of risks, such as significant economic crises, natural disasters, or health epidemics. In FY2017,

two projects were ongoing in this window: one on Social Network Mapping and Analysis for Youth

Living in High-Violence Urban Neighborhoods in Honduras, and the other on the Global Financial

Development Report on Global Banking.

HigHligHt: Social Network Mapping and Analysis for Youth Living in High-Violence Areas

Honduras is the second most violent country in the world (UNDP 2013). Although violence affects the

economy as a whole, the burden of violence is not spread equally. Homicide victims and perpetrators

are disproportionately concentrated among young, disadvantaged men. Male homicide rates in the

country rise sharply in adolescence and peak in the twenties before beginning a gradual decline. Ad-

dressing violence in Honduras is therefore an important national and regional policy priority. As male

youth are the most likely perpetrators and victims, addressing the needs and behaviors of this group

is particularly salient.

Existing evidence suggests that network structure may play a critical role in determining patterns of

criminality and victimization. Understanding the structure of such networks is an essential input into

any work that aims to identify the most cost-effective means of reducing crime and violence within

this subpopulation.

20

This project proposes to map and analyze the social networks of youth living in selected high-violence

urban neighborhoods in Honduras, to understand the social dynamics that create and perpetuate

violence. This mapping will link people ages 15–25 living in these areas along eight dimensions: (i)

seeking employment; (ii) personal, work-related, and health problems; (iii) safety and security; (iv)

coping and anger management; (v) drugs and sex; (vi) borrowing and lending small sums of money;

(vii) recreation; and (viii) friendship.

The project has two primary objectives:

To analyze the behavior and social dynamics of youth living in high-violence, low-opportunity contexts

with established gang presence, and to understand the nature and structure of networks that inform

decisions and behaviors that are inherently social.

To assess how network structure characteristics shape the following: information diffusion; enrollment

in a labor market readiness and insertion program for at-risk youth; and antisocial behavior, labor

market outcomes, and other program impacts.

The work is carried out through an ongoing research partnership with the Government of Honduras

in the context of the World Bank–financed Safer Municipalities Project. The research partnership also

includes the University of Illinois and the World Bank’s Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience Global

Practice.

The team is currently working on data processing and initial analyses using census data.

B. Innovation in Data Production, Analysis, and Dissemination

This theme addresses the need to establish strong baselines and a monitoring system for poverty

alleviation, shared prosperity, and sustainability goals. In this past reporting year, five projects were

completed and eight were ongoing under this theme. The five completed projects focus on the areas

of developing advanced methods of data analysis (Producing, Analyzing and Visualizing Global In-

come Distributions; Calibration in Sample Survey Estimation: Improving the Quality of Socioeconomic

Indicators by Using Auxiliary Information; and Generation of Synthetic Data for ex ante Impact Assess-

ments) and improving survey capability (Measuring and Analyzing Teacher Knowledge and Behavior,

and Benchmarking the Private Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa). Many of these projects work closely with

local partners and help strengthen local capacity (Box 7).

21

BOX 7. Capacity Building of National Statistics Agencies

KPC III funds projects that contribute to improving the quality of survey data collected by

national statistics agencies in developing countries, through training and collaboration.

Calibration in Sample Survey Estimation: Improving the Quality of Socioeconomic Indi-

cators by Using Auxiliary Information

National statistics agencies in developing countries produce estimates of poverty, in-

equality, and many other socioeconomic indicators by conducting sample surveys of

various kinds. In industrialized countries, response rates to sample surveys are low (often

well below 70 percent). Advanced sample calibration techniques are therefore imple-

mented to correct the survey results by adjusting the sampling weights. In developing

countries, response rates are usually high (often above 90 percent). Complex adjust-

ments for nonresponse are thus not seen as critical and are not implemented.

But nonresponse rates are an issue in some low- and middle-income countries, particu-

larly in urban areas and for better-off populations. A comparison of population censuses

and socioeconomic surveys from the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam shows an un-

derrepresentation of the young adult population and one-member households in the

sample surveys. This may affect the reliability of official statistics if no corrective action

is taken.

This project investigated the causes of “anomalies” detected in the structure of the

population in survey data sets in three countries (the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam),

measured their effect on a series of key indicators, and developed tools and practical

guidelines for implementation of data adjustments by national statistics agencies.

Building local capacity was an important goal of the project. A pilot four-day training

course was organized in collaboration with the Asian Development Bank in Manila, the

Philippines. Participants in the training included statisticians from three countries (the

Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) and from the Asian Development Bank. Among the

three countries, the project has proven most relevant for the Philippines Statistics Au-

thority (the country’s national statistics office). The Philippines Statistics Authority con-

firmed that the tools and methods recommended by the project are now integrated in

the regular production of survey estimates.

The technical report, technical guidelines, and training materials produced by the proj-

ect were made publicly available for easy replication. They have proven to be useful for

statisticians in various countries and agencies.

22

HigHligHt: Measuring and Analyzing Teacher Knowledge and Behavior

Human capital is critical for individuals to access higher productivity activities and earn higher incomes

in those activities. Increasingly, evidence points to the importance of the quality of education—not

just the quantity—in determining opportunities. This research aims to (i) enhance global knowledge

on the relationship between teacher behaviors and student performance, and (ii) provide empiri-

cally-based guidance on how to collect information on teacher performance along dimensions that

matter for determining student performance.

The research is structured in two parts. The first part exploits existing data to analyze the relationship

between “what teachers know,” “what teachers do,” and learning outcomes, with the goal of better

understanding how teachers’ abilities and behaviors contribute to students’ success. The second part

of the research attempts to refine or revise the current survey approaches to observing classroom

behaviors and capturing “what teachers do.” The goal is to improve the measurement of teachers’

performance in the classroom.

Data analysis on seven Sub-Saharan African countries (Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanza-

nia, Togo, and Uganda) finds that students receive two hours and fifty minutes of teaching per day, or

just over half the scheduled time. In addition, a large share of teachers does not master the curricula

of the students they are teaching; basic pedagogical knowledge is low; and the use of good teaching

practices is rare. The analysis finds significant and large positive effects of teacher content and peda-

gogical knowledge on student achievement. These findings point to the huge shortcomings in teacher

quality and an urgent need for improvements in education service delivery in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This research project has had an impact on two World Bank operations, The Third Punjab Education

Sector Project, and Improving the Quality of Initial and Primary Education in Uruguay. In both projects,

the government has requested to use the draft of the new classroom observation tool developed in

this project to enhance their supervision (Punjab) and assess the impact of their professional develop-

ment program (Uruguay).

The findings of this project sparked additional interest in the World Bank’s Education Global Practice

for improving the measurement tools used in operations. Two new initiatives were born: (i) SABER

Service Delivery, which aims to develop a suite of tools to measure service delivery in schools, and (ii)

Teach, an initiative to develop a new open-source classroom observation tool that would be used to

monitor and support teachers’ professional development.

C. International Cooperation and Global Public Goods

The International Cooperation and Global Public Goods theme addresses the political economy, pol-

icy design, and evaluation challenges that arise in international cooperation: regional and multilater-

al trade, climate change and environmental security, international coordination of macroeconomic

23

and financial policies, communicable diseases, deforestation, biodiversity, knowledge and intellectual

property rights, health, and education.

In FY2017, four projects were completed, and three projects were ongoing under this theme. The

completed projects were on trade (Mega-Regional Trade Agreements: Implications for Developing

Countries, and Trade Policy, Poverty and Shared Prosperity), climate change (China Climate Policy

Modeling), and migration (Migration and Labor Market Implications in the South). These projects

addressed policy-oriented questions in a timely manner. The findings are expected to provide more

useful policy implications to governments in developing countries.

HigHligHt: China Climate Policy Modeling

China recently announced the goal of attaining peak carbon emissions by 2030, along with increasing

the share of non-fossil fuels to 20 percent of total energy consumption. Under the Paris Agreement,

China set a goal of reducing its emission intensity (that is, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit of

gross domestic product (GDP)) by 60 to 65 percent below 2005 levels, and increasing its forest carbon

stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from 2005 levels. To achieve the climate change mit-

igation targets, the government announced the launch of a national emission trading scheme starting

in 2017.

This project aims to analyze the economy wide impacts of carbon pricing, focusing on two specific

issues. First, how would a regulatory policy to promote renewable energy interact with a national

emission trading scheme? Second, what would be an optimal mix of carbon pricing policies—more

specifically, the mix between a national emission trading scheme and a carbon tax? The findings of

the study are expected to be helpful, as they are being produced at a time when China is planning to

launch a national emission trading scheme and the government is seeking knowledge support from

the World Bank Group in designing its emission trading system.

The analysis shows the following: (i) If a national emission trading scheme is introduced to achieve

a hypothetical 10 percent reduction of CO2 emissions from the baseline in China, it would cause a

small percentage (less than 0.1 percent) loss in GDP and welfare. If a separate renewable electricity

mandate is introduced on top of the national emission trading scheme, it would cause greater GDP

and welfare losses. (ii) If a carbon tax policy is introduced in the sectors not covered by the national

emission trading scheme (for example, the transportation sector), the overall cost of meeting the

emission reduction target (10 percent below the baseline) would be lower than in the case of a nation-

al emission trading scheme alone. However, if a carbon tax policy is implemented instead of a national

emission trading scheme, the cost of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation would be higher.

The key message from the study is that China should implement market-based instruments, such as

the national emission trading scheme in sectors where the scheme can be effectively implemented

together with a carbon tax policy in sectors where emission trading cannot be implemented (for

24

example, households and transport). Regulatory policies, such as renewable energy standards and

fuel economy standards, would add more costs to achieving the climate change mitigation targets. As

long as the market-based instruments are successfully implemented, regulatory instruments may not

be needed to meet China’s commitments under the Paris Agreement.

Some of the project’s findings were presented in a conference organized by the Renmin University in

Beijing in August 2017, attracting interest from participants, including those in academia and environ-

mental policy makers.

D. Service Delivery and Aid Effectiveness

The Service Delivery and Aid Effectiveness theme focuses on how to deliver “development” across

multiple sectors encompassing the public and private sectors. In FY2017, six projects were ongoing

under this theme.

HigHligHt: Increasing Uptake of LARCs among Adolescent Females in Cameroon

Adolescent health and family planning has been identified as a key area of support for Cameroon. The

adolescent fertility rate in Cameroon is high: 21 percent of female adolescents age 15 to 19 gave birth

in 2014. Although young women describe many of these births as planned and intentional, women

younger than age 20 also have the greatest percentage of mistimed/unintended pregnancies com-

pared with all other age groups, with more than 30 percent of the births in this group unwanted or

wanted later. Despite the desire to delay childbearing, only 48 percent of sexually active unmarried

women use modern contraceptives. Among this group, virtually no one utilizes long-acting reversible

contraceptives (LARCs).

The project aims to understand the facilitating factors and barriers that influence family planning in-

tentions and LARC uptake among adolescent females in Cameroon. Furthermore, the project aims to

assess the feasibility of various mechanisms for the delivery of modern contraceptives to adolescent

females in the country. The goal of the project is to increase LARC uptake among adolescent females

in Cameroon, to prevent unintended pregnancies and reduce early marriage, as well as to delay or

space pregnancies.

The project uses randomized control trials to assess the relative cost-effectiveness of family planning

interventions to increase the uptake of LARCs. The team is designing interventions based on exten-

sive discussions between the team and in-country counterparts.

To date, there has been satisfactory progress. A three-day workshop with all stakeholders was held in

Cameroon in February 2017, to design interventions to increase the uptake of modern contraceptives

among adolescent females and young women in the country. As a result, three working groups were

formed to lead the design of (i) supply-side interventions (in particular, training and certification of

25

health care providers and accreditation of health facilities), (ii) demand-side interventions (in particular,

school-based interventions and subsidies to facilities to reduce the price of contraceptives), and (iii)

development of a mobile decision-support tool (that is, a phone-based app) for health care providers

to use to counsel clients on contraception. Each of these working groups is currently designing the

main interventions.

The project is being conducted in collaboration with the Ministry of Public Health; the United Nations

Population Fund; and partners from bilateral agencies, local universities, and nongovernmental or-

ganizations. Training sessions on the latest innovations in modern contraceptives will be provided to

health care providers in Cameroon during the project.

E. World Bank Flagship Reports

KCP supports the production of the World Bank Group’s major Flagship reports, such as the World

Development Report (WDR), Global Economic Prospects, the Poverty and Shared Prosperity Report,

and Doing Business. In FY2017, two projects were completed supporting the World Development

Report 2017: Governance and the Law, and six projects were ongoing under this theme.

HigHligHt: WDR 2015 Operationalization

KCP plays an important role in supporting the emergence of the World Bank’s Mind, Behavior and

Development (eMBeD) Unit which operationalizes the 2015 World Development Report: Mind, Soci-

ety, and Behavior.

eMBeD aims to improve the effectiveness of World Bank projects and programs through the integra-

tion of recent insights from the social and behavioral sciences. The initiative was launched on October

22, 2015. eMBeD, the World Bank’s behavioral sciences team, works closely with project teams, gov-

ernments, and other partners to diagnose, design, and evaluate behaviorally informed interventions.

By collaborating with a worldwide network of scientists and practitioners, the eMBeD team provides

answers to important economic and social questions, and contributes to the global effort to eliminate

poverty and increase equity.

Since its inception, eMBeD has worked in more than 50 countries on behaviorally informed projects

aimed at improving outcomes in education, finance, health, and more. The team works in policy areas,

like social cohesion for refugees and climate change, and at the micro level. From using goal-setting

to improve employment rates for young people and women in Turkey, to creating information inter-

ventions to increase breastfeeding rates in Indonesia and increase take-up of long-acting reversible

contraceptives in Cameroon, each of eMBeD’s projects aims to make tangible improvements in the

lives of often vulnerable individuals through behaviorally informed policy.

26

F. Growth and Job Creation

The Growth and Job Creation theme focuses on understanding the dynamics of economic growth and

job creation. In FY2017, three projects were completed in this theme and there were four ongoing

projects. The completed projects studied the creative destruction of micro and small enterprises (Mi-

cro and Small Firm Death in Developing Countries) and the investment climate (Doing Business) (Job

Quality Framework, Getting Water and Sewerage Connections in 31 Mexican States and Mexico City).

HigHligHt: Job Quality Framework

This project provides quantitative measures of the quality of employment, structured in a new Job

Quality Framework as part of the Doing Business report. This flagship publication of the World Bank

Group has been presenting data on labor market regulation for the past decade. For the first time, the

report goes beyond the concept of efficiency and labor market flexibility and focuses on measuring

the quality of employment. Through years of extensive consultations with experts and practitioners

in the field, it became evident that a comprehensive data set should also provide information on job

quality, given that both aspects of labor laws are important for private sector development, produc-

tivity, and social cohesion.

The new data provide information on the key aspects of job quality stipulated by labor laws in 190

economies. The data include the following job quality frameworks: hiring, working, social protection,

and workplace relations.

The team produced a case study on the quality of jobs using new data from 190 economies in 2016.

Some highlights include:

Regulation is essential for the efficient functioning of labor markets and worker protection. Labor mar-

ket rules can potentially have an impact on economic outcomes. Doing Business data show that rigid

employment regulation is associated with higher levels of informality. By contrast, weak labor market

rules can result in discrimination and poor treatment of workers.

The challenge for governments in developing labor policies is to strike the right balance between

worker protection and flexibility.

Regulation of labor markets differs significantly by income group. Low-income and lower-middle-

income economies tend to have stricter employment protection regulation than more developed

economies.

One reason for more rigid employment protection legislation in low-income and lower-middle-income

economies is the lack of unemployment insurance. None of the low-income economies and only 23

percent of lower-middle-income economies have unemployment protection stipulated in the law.

27

The full case study entitled “Labor Market Regulation: What Can We Learn from Doing Business

Data?” is published in the annex of the Doing Business Report 2017. In addition to the study, many

research papers and news articles use job quality data from Doing Business. Moreover, the job quality

data have been utilized by policy makers. Since the introduction of the job quality data, the Doing

Business team has had substantial engagements with representatives from Kuwait, the United Arab

Emirates, Kazakhstan, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Jordan, and Guatemala.

G. Poverty and Shared Prosperity

This theme addresses issues at the heart of the twin goals of the World Bank Group with an empha-

sis on the importance of economic growth and inclusion, including strong concerns for equity. The

theme encompasses a broad range of policies across the spectrum of development, such as public

service delivery for human development as well as policy issues in agriculture, governance, social

development, finance and markets, migration and remittances, trade and competitiveness, regulatory

issues that affect small and medium-size enterprises, and macroeconomic and fiscal management that

creates jobs and fuels development and sustainable growth.

In FY2017, there were three completed projects and four ongoing projects under this theme. The

completed projects were Equity of Opportunity in Global Prosperity, The Effect of Improved Biomass

Cookstoves on Indoor Air Quality and Respiratory Health in Rural Ethiopia, and Living Life.

HigHligHt: Living Life

This project aims to understand how the experiences of citizens across the globe vary in the ease of

interacting with their government’s bureaucracy. These differences play an important role in under-

standing the causes of poverty and inequality worldwide.

Some governments are better organized than others; some impose cumbersome and overly bureau-

cratic procedures on access to services; others aim to streamline and simplify the burden on citizens

to meet their responsibilities and access the goods and services to which they are entitled. However,

there are currently no data available to assess the extent of this regulatory burden, or to generate

stimulus for reform. Living Life aims to fill this knowledge gap by providing comparable data on bu-

reaucratic procedures across countries.

Living Life focuses on nine main topics, which can be grouped as follows: (i) civil registration and du-

ties, such as registering a birth, registering a death, getting an identification card, voting, and paying

taxes; and (ii) access to basic services, including health care, education, electricity, and water and sani-

tation. Each topic offers insights on specific aspects of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The project aims to collect data for three pilot economies: Ghana, Chile, and Vietnam.

28

The project is in its data collection phase, which will be followed by data validation and analysis and pi-

lot report preparation. The first pilot cycle is expected to be completed by June 2018. Living Life will

provide an internationally comparable evidence base, to empower citizens to hold their governments

to account. The data collected will also benefit policy makers, researchers, and civil society organiza-

tions working to eliminate unnecessary and inefficient bureaucratic hurdles, and allow for interesting

cross-country analysis. The study will serve as an essential benchmarking tool in the governance area

and enable the debate on procedural and bureaucratic reforms.

FIGURE 7. Indicators in FY2017

134RESEARCHERS*

95CITATIONS

in World Bank Projects

18JOURNAL ARTICLES

CITATIONSin Government

Programs4

163EVENTS

KCP II

30KCP III

133

KCP II

65KCP III

51

67POLICY

NOTES & REPORTS

KCP II

24KCP III

43

40WORKING PAPERS

KCP II

23KCP III

17

38DATA SETS

KCP II

12KCP III

26

116PRESENTATIONS

26RESEARCH

TOOLS

KCP II

6KCP III

20

KCP II

9KCP III

9

46INSTITUTIONS*

Note * Developing country partners substantively engaged.

KCP III’s Second Call for Proposals

KCP III launched a Second Call for Proposals in September 2016. Nineteen projects were selected and

approved, with total allocations of US$3.1 million.

After the first round of review by DEC Directors, 61 Concept Notes were cleared to develop full pro-

posals. The research teams prepared and submitted 61 full proposals, requesting US$13.85 million in

funding. These full proposals were then reviewed and rated by external topic experts. On February

21, 2017, KCP’s IMC met and discussed these proposals based on the reviews and ratings from the

29

external review. IMC was chaired by the head of DEC, and composed of DEC directors and represen-

tatives of Regional and Global Practice Chief Economists.

Among the selected projects, 10 proposals received the full requested amount of funding; nine re-

ceived a reduced amount of funding. The sizes of the grants range from US$57,000 to US$400,000,

averaging US$164,632 per grant. Of the 19 grants, six projects with strong capacity-building compo-

nents and high ratings from the external reviewers were funded from the capacity-building budget

(not less than 15 percent of the total available budget). Table 2 presents a list of the approved projects.

TABLE 2. New KCP III Projects Approved in FY2017 (US$)

Task team leader Project name

Approved amount (US$)

FragIlIty and rIsk management

1 Holmlund, Marcus Social Network Mapping and Analysis for Youth Living in High-Violence Urban Neighborhoods in Honduras

130,000

InnoVatIon In data ProductIon methods, analysIs and dIssemInatIon

2 Dang, Hai Anh Measuring Countries’ Statistical Capacity 120,000

3 Dupriez, Olivier Machine Learning Algorithms for Poverty Prediction: An Empirical Comparative Assessment

180,000

4 Kilic, Talip Intra-Household Allocation of and Gender Differences in Consumption Poverty

130,000

5 Rogger, Daniel Measuring Process Productivity in Bureaucracies 80,000

6 Selod, Harris Using Big Data to Measure Urban Congestion 66,000

InternatIonal cooPeratIon and global PublIc goods

7 Kaushik, Siddhesh Vishwanath/ Ferrantino, Michael

Non-Tariff Measures (NTM) Indicators 100,000

8 Cull, Robert After the Global Financial Crisis: Bank Regulation and Supervision

165,000

serVIce delIVery and eFFectIVeness

9 Das, Jishnu From Access to Quality: Ramping Up Measurement and Improvement of Health Care Quality

250,000

10 Rijkers, Bob Performance Pay in Customs: Evidence from Madagascar 75,000

11 Ozier, Owen A New Model for Primary Schooling in Developing Countries 250,000

12 Ozler, Berk Increasing Uptake of Long Acting Reversible Contraceptives (LARCs) among Adolescent Females in Cameroon

200,000

World bank FlagshIP rePorts

13 Filmer, Deon/ Rogers, Halsey

WDR 2018: Realizing the Promise of Education for Development

400,000

30

groWth and Job creatIon

14 Francis, David / Rodriguez Meza, Jorge Luis

Making Enforceable Agreements: Data and Indicator Pilot 150,000

15 Schmukler, Sergio The Effects of Interest Rate Ceilings on Credit Markets: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Chile

150,000

PoVerty and shared ProsPerIty

16 Jacoby, Hanan / Do, Quy-Toan

Electricity Demand in Vietnam 180,000

17 Ratha, Dilip Migration and the Law 300,000

18 Toman, Michael Effect of Improved Biomass Cookstoves on Indoor Air Quality and Respiratory Health in Rural Ethiopia Part 3

57,000

19 Perotti, Valeria Living Life 145,000

31

VI. kcP FInances

Donor Contributions and Pledges

KCP III, which became active in December 2014, has received US$11.66 million in cash contributions

from seven donors, namely, Norway, Estonia, Canada, the United Kingdom, Finland, France, and Swe-

den. There are outstanding pledges of US$3.42 million from Finland.

Norway was the first donor to contribute to KCP III with NKr 30 million. In FY2016, Norway made an

additional contribution of US$800,000 towards WDR 2017: Governance and the Law. In FY2017, Nor-

way contributed NKr 4 million towards WDR 2018: Learning to Realize Education’s Promise.

Estonia contributed €436,000 for WDR 2016: Internet and Development.

The United Kingdom, a founding member of KCP, contributed £0.9 million, in three tranches.

Canada contributed Can$400,000, with Can$200,000 for WDR 2016: Internet and Development, and

Can$200,000 for WDR 2017: Governance and the Law.

Finland, the other KCP founding donor, initially contributed €2,250,000. In FY2017, Finland contribut-

ed €750,000 toward WDR 2018: Learning to Realize Education’s Promise; and pledged an additional

€3,000,000 payable over three years.

France contributed €100,000 for WDR 2017: Governance and the Law; and an additional €100,000 for

WDR 2018: Learning to Realize Education’s Promise.

Sweden contributed US$1 million for WDR 2017: Governance and the Law.

32

TABLE 3. KCP III Parent Fund Accounts StatementAs of June 30, 2017, (US$), Unaudited

TF072304TF072635

(parallel account)

Contributions received

Norway 4,535,529.17 473,440.02

Estonia 480,839.00

United Kingdom 1,340,016.00

Canada 303,557.77

Finland 2,482,030.71 834,506.25

France 107,235.00 104,520.00

Sweden 999,970.00

Total contributions received 9,249,207.65 2,412,436.27

Administrative fee (5%) (462,460.38)

Net contributions received 8,786,747.27 2,412,436.27

Outstanding pledges (signed)

Finland 3,420,750.00

Total outstanding pledges (signed)

0.00 3,420,750.00

Administrative fee (5%) 0.00

Net outstanding pledges 0.00 3,420,750.00

Investment income 80,073.74 9,954.29

Less:

Set-up fee (35,000.00)

Project allocations (7,984,741.46) (2,290,406.78)

Technical reviewers’ fees (101,821.45)

Program management and administration

(13,170.66)

ESTIMATED FUNDS AVAILABLE 732,087.44 3,552,733.78

33

annex a: kcp reSearch projectS in profiLe

1. World Development Report 2018: Learning to Realize Education’s Promise

Task Team Leaders: Deon Filmer, Halsey Rogers

KCP III Funding: US$1,740,436

Timeline: 2/21/2017 to 12/31/2018

Introduction

Education is a foundational building block for achieving nearly every other development goal.

High-quality, widespread education is one of the most powerful tools for achieving the World Bank’s

twin strategic goals of ending poverty and promoting shared prosperity. Education was also a key

to the Millennium Development Goals, and it remains central to the SDGs: schooling, skills, and the

knowledge that result from them improve employment and productivity, health outcomes, quality of

governance, and many other outcomes.

Yet, surprisingly, in the 40 years of the World Bank’s flagship World Development Report series, there

has never been a WDR devoted entirely to education. WDR 2018: Learning to Realize Education’s

Promise changes that. The timing is no coincidence: making education the theme of the first report

after the agreement on the SDGs sends a strong signal about the centrality of education to devel-

opment. But, as the report argues, education is not yet fulfilling its great potential. Despite great

global gains in access to education, recent learning assessments reveal that many children around the

world are leaving school unequipped with even foundational literacy and numeracy skills, let alone

higher-order 21st century skills. And it is not just low-income countries: internationally comparable

assessments show that skills in many middle-income countries lag far behind what those countries’

aspirations. Worse, the problems are most severe for disadvantaged populations. The report shows

that these shortfalls constitute a learning crisis. To tackle this crisis, the report argues that countries

must assess learning to make it a serious goal, act on evidence to make schools work for all learners,

and align everyone with a stake in education to overcome technical and political barriers and make

the whole system work for learning.

Consultations

The report benefitted from a broad set of consultations (in addition to extensive internal World Bank

reviews). These consultations have been an opportunity to provide feedback on various versions of

the report, but also an opportunity to disseminate the report’s key messages. Through this process,

the report is already having an impact—namely, by sensitizing key stakeholders to the importance of

focusing on learning, and how action can improve it. External consultations included the following:

34

Guidance from an advisory panel composed of Gordon Brown (who, together with the Chief Econo-

mist, co-chaired the panel), Michelle Bachelet, Rukmini Banerji, Julia Gillard, Eric Hanushek, Olli-Pekka

Heinonen, Ju-Ho Lee, and Serigne Mbaye Thiam.

Consultation events attended by government officials, researchers, and civil society organizations

held in Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, China, Côte d’Ivoire, Finland, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan,

Kenya, Malaysia, Mexico, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Thailand, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and

the United States, with participants from many more countries. (Further information on these events

is available at http://www.worldbank.org/wdr2018.)

Interagency consultations held with the Association for the Development of Education in Africa; Glob-

al Development Network; Global Partnership for Education; International Commission on Financing

Global Education Opportunity; International Monetary Fund; Organisation for Economic Co-opera-

tion and Development; United Nations Children’s Fund; and United Nations Educational, Scientific

and Cultural Organization.

Consultations with bilateral development partners included representatives of the governments of

Canada, Finland, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Norway, and Sweden, and the French Development

Agency, German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation (BMZ), German Corporation for Inter-

national Cooperation (GIZ GmbH), Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, U.K. Depart-

ment for International Development, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), U.S. Agency for

International Development (USAID), and the advisory board of the Knowledge for Change Program.

The consultation events included several civil society organizations (CSOs), which included, among

others, Action Aid, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Education International, Global Campaign for

Education, LEGO Foundation, MasterCard Foundation, ONE Campaign, Oxfam, Save the Children,

Teach for All, and World Vision. In addition, a diverse group of CSOs participated in a CSO forum ses-

sion held during the 2017 World Bank/International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings and an e-forum

held in March 2017.

Researchers and academics provided helpful feedback at WDR-oriented sessions at the 2016 Re-

search to Improve Systems of Education Conference at Oxford University, 2017 meetings of the Allied

Social Sciences Associations, 2017 meetings of the Society for Research on Education Effectiveness,

2017 Mexico Conference on Political Economy of Education, and 2017 meeting of the Systems Ap-

proach for Better Education Results Advisory Panel. In addition, events dedicated to the WDR were

organized by the Brookings Center for Universal Education in Washington, DC; Global Affairs Canada

and Aga Khan Foundation in Ottawa; Columbia School for International and Public Affairs and Cornell

University in New York; Development Policy Forum of GIZ GmbH, on behalf of BMZ, in Berlin; JICA in

Tokyo; USAID in Washington, DC; and Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny in Abidjan.

35

Funding Leveraged

Funding for the report was provided by the World Bank’s core budget, along with several additional

sources. These additional sources included the KCP, and especially the governments and develop-

ment agencies of the following KCP donor countries: Finland, France, and Norway. Background and

related research, along with dissemination, are being supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Founda-

tion, Early Learning Partnership Trust Fund, LEGO Foundation, and Nordic Trust Fund.

Report Contents

Schooling is not the same as learning. In Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, when grade 3 students were

asked recently to read a sentence, such as “The name of the dog is Puppy.” in English or Kiswahili,

three-quarters did not understand what it said. In rural India, nearly three-quarters of students in

grade 3 could not solve a two-digit subtraction, such as “46–17,” and by grade 5, half still could not

do so. Although the skills of Brazilian 15-year-olds have improved, at their current rate of improve-

ment, they will not reach the rich-country average score in math for 75 years. In reading, it will take

263 years. Without learning, children—and their societies—are accumulating too little human capital.

Schooling without learning is not just a wasted opportunity, but a great injustice: the children whom

society is failing most are the ones who most need a good education to succeed in life. Without

learning, education fails to deliver fully on its promise as a driver of poverty elimination and shared

prosperity. Within countries, learning outcomes are almost always much worse for the disadvantaged.

In Uruguay, poor children in grade 6 are assessed as “not competent” in math at five times the rate of

wealthy children. Moreover, such data are for children and youth lucky enough to be in school. Some

260 million are not even enrolled in primary or secondary school, with members of disadvantaged

groups—poor children, girls, children with disabilities, and ethnic minorities—most likely to be out of

school.

Schooling that doesn’t result in learning is not just a missed opportunity—it is a great injustice. The

children whom society is failing most are the ones in greatest need of a good education to succeed

in life. Within countries, learning outcomes are almost always much worse for the disadvantaged. In

Uruguay, poor children in grade 6 are assessed as “not competent” in math at 5 times the rate of

wealthy children. Together with the fact that all these data are for children and youth lucky enough to

be in school, these severe shortfalls constitute a learning crisis.

But there’s nothing inevitable about low levels of learning—real progress is possible, at any level of

development, when countries prioritize learning and mobilize everyone with a stake in education to

work toward it. The case of Korea is striking, but there are others. Vietnam surprised the world when

the 2012 results from PISA showed that its 15-year-olds performed at the same level as those in

Germany—even though Vietnam was a lower-middle-income country. Between 2009 and 2015, Peru

achieved some of the fastest growth in overall learning outcomes due to concerted policy action. And

36

recently in Liberia, Papua New Guinea, and Tonga, early grade reading improved substantially within

a very short time, thanks to focused evidence-based efforts.

The WDR identifies three main dimensions of the learning crisis. First, the poor learning outcomes

themselves: low levels of learning, high inequalities (across income, gender, and other characteristics),

and slow improvements in learning. Second, the immediate causes of the crisis, seen in the various

ways that the teaching-learning relationship breaks down—such as when students are hobbled by

a lack of early nutrition, teachers are unprepared or unmotivated, materials and technology don’t

improve learning, and school management is poor. Third, the deeper system-level barriers, both

technical and political, that pull the various actors away from a focus on learning.

The WDR provides detailed diagnoses of each dimension based on new data and research.

To confront the learning crisis, the WDR argues that a nation must take action on three fronts.

• First, assess learning, to make it a serious goal. Countries need to put in place a range of

well-designed student assessments to help teachers guide students, improve system man-

agement, and focus society’s attention on learning. These measures can spotlight hidden

exclusions, inform policy choices, and track progress.

• Second, act on evidence to make schools work for all learners. Countries should start

by targeting areas with the largest gaps between what happens in practice and what evi-

dence suggests works for learning. The best place to start is these three key areas: prepared

learners; skilled and motivated teachers; inputs and management focused on teaching and

learning.

• Third, align actors, to make the whole system work for learning. Even evidence-based

classroom innovation may have little impact if system-level technical and political factors

prevent a focus on learning. Countries can escape low-learning traps by deploying infor-

mation and metrics to make learning politically salient; building coalitions to shift political

incentives toward learning for all; and using innovative and adaptive approaches to find out

which approaches work best in context.

The payoff is education that delivers: for individuals, it promotes employment, earnings, health, and

poverty reduction; and for societies, it drives long-term economic growth, spurs innovation, strength-

ens institutions, and fosters social cohesion. But these benefits depend largely on learning. Mounting

evidence shows that the skills acquired are what equips individuals for work and life, and that it is

through learning and skills that education boosts growth. Countries have already made a start by get-

ting so many young people into school; now it is time to realize education’s promise by accelerating

learning for all.

37

Launch and Dissemination

The extensive global consultation process provided an early forum for WDR 2018 to have an impact.

In addition, a series of blogs hosted by various World Bank blog sites (Let’s Talk Development; Devel-

opment Impact; Peoples, Spaces, Deliberations; and the Education Global Practice blog), along with

a set of public online polls on pertinent questions, communicated key findings and piqued interest in

the report.

The report was launched on September 27, 2017 with two events that followed at the Brookings Insti-

tution and at the World Bank/International Monetary Fund Annual Meetings. The Report was also dis-

cussed by the World Bank Group’s Governors at the Development Committee meetings. Since then

the 2018 WDR has had launch events in Finland, Norway, France, Ghana, the Netherlands, Estonia,

Argentina, Jordan, Lebanon, Sweden and Paraguay with many more countries to follow.

2. Producing, Analyzing and Visualizing Global Income Distributions

Task Team Leader: Tariq Khokhar

KCP III Funding: US$60,000

Timeline: 8/1/2015 – 6/30/2017

Project Objective and Description

The World Bank’s twin goals center around income distributions. Having sound approaches for study-

ing and presenting these distributions is fundamental to the World Bank’s future strategic, analytical,

and communication work. The distribution of wealth and income is also an issue of recent public, as

well as long-term academic, interest. Although much discussion of distribution is anecdotal, objective

data on income distribution are available from sources such as censuses, income surveys, and taxation

records.

The World Bank hosts a substantial public database of income distribution information in the form

of PovcalNet. The system is primarily designed as an online interface to replicate the World Bank’s

calculations on the incidence of extreme poverty globally. As a byproduct, it provides information on

the income (or consumption) distributions of many of the world’s economies at multiple points in time.

However, in general this information is not easily accessible.

The objective of this project was to make access to these data easier, expose the distributional out-

puts of PovcalNet source data, and allow visual manipulation of income distributions.

The project proceeded in several steps. First, data were extracted in bulk from PovcalNet. Methods

38

for fitting distributions to these data, and for interpolation and extrapolation, were evaluated and

selected. From there, a compact “canonical” representation of the fitted data, suitable for use in web-

based data visualization, was designed and implemented. A prototype interactive income distribution

data visualization tool was created to show and compare distributions using a variety of chart types.

Main Findings to Date

The key challenges encountered during the project were related to modeling, rather than visualization

itself, although discoveries were made in both areas.

PovcalNet data are suitable for distribution visualization.

Distribution data from PovcalNet are presented in the form of a Lorenz curve, a summarized form of

the full distribution. Although methods exist for deriving a complete distribution from such data (un-

der particular assumptions), we found it necessary to improve upon these methods.

Simple parametric forms, commonly used in web-based distribution visualizations, were considered

less appealing than nonparametric forms, which allow detailed features of income distributions to be

seen (for example, unusual skew or multi-modality).

The most common nonparametric methods (for instance, kernel density estimation) assume access to

an underlying set of raw data. We avoided such methods, as the raw survey data underlying PovcalNet

are not public, and we wanted to make the entire method public and replicable. Moreover, a compo-

nent (although increasingly a minority) of the surveys in PovcalNet exists only in the Lorenz form, with

original raw data not available, and we wanted a method that was applicable in every case.

Our conclusion is that the granularity of data provided by PovcalNet is suitable for representation

and visualization of income distributions, given an appropriate choice of modeling method (Figure

A.1). An important outstanding feature is to validate formally that reconstructed distributions are rea-

sonably accurate (for example, accurately reproduce summary statistics as calculated from raw data).

FIGURE A.1 Visualization of Income Distributions

39

Note: The smoothed nonparametric fit (blue solid curve) often diverges in interesting ways form a simple lognormal

fit (red dashed curve).

Interactive manipulation of distributions is feasible, given appropriate representation.

To allow a web-based visualization tool to create different graphics dynamically and respond to a

user’s choice of input, the representation of an income distribution needs to be compact and simple

and efficient to manipulate. To achieve these goals, the project developed a representation of each

distribution using adaptive linear splines.

This representation allows different forms of the distribution (PDF, CDF, Lorenz curve, and histogram)

to be derived efficiently, as well as simple interpolation or combination of (population-weighted) dis-

tributions, so that, for example, the combined distribution for a group of related countries (a region,

the world, or an arbitrary group) can be manipulated.

This flexible data format can be used as the basis for a range of future data visualization projects be-

yond the prototype already developed.

Different visualizations draw attention to different features of an income distribution.

Previous approaches to visualizing income distributions generally have not targeted a lay audience.

Those that have done so adopt a simplistic modeling approach that loses interesting variation in the

shapes of different distributions, or does not offer much interactivity or user control.

The approach presented in this work strikes a middle ground between largely “stylistic” presentations

of income distribution data and traditional analytical methods. The approach retains a level of fidelity

in showing interesting variations in distributions that are captured in the data, while remaining useful

for web visualization purposes.

The prototype visualization tool includes graphical representations of income distributions for coun-

tries going back in some cases more than 40 years. Users can select countries for which PovcalNet

has data; the visualizations presented include density plots, histograms, Lorenz curves, deciles, and

more (Figure A.2).

Early user testing makes it clear that the different visualizations emphasize different aspects of the

distributions. The prototype developed could easily be adapted to test the effects of showing differ-

ent representations of income distributions to a group of users, to confirm these anecdotal findings

experimentally.

40

FIGURE A.2 Prototype Histogram Display for a Selection of Countries in the Communauté Financière Africaine Currency Union

Dissemination

Technical Report: Visualizing Global Income Distributions: https://github.com/econandrew/visual-in-

come-distributions-notebooks/blob/master/Report/pdf2/Report.pdf.

A prototype visualization tool is viewable by request and will be made publicly available later in 2017

once the interface has been further tested and refined.

Source data, source code, and digital notebooks with executable code, visualizations, and explana-

tions: https://github.com/econandrew/visual-income-distributions-notebooks.

41

annex B: kcp projectS portfoLio

FIGURE B.1 KCP III Allocations by Window From Inception to June 30, 2017 (US$ Thousands)

Fragility and Risk Management$330 à 3%

Innovation in Data Production Methods, Analysis and Dissemination

$1,601 à 16%

International Cooperation and Global Public Goods

$825 à 8%

Service Delivery and Effectiveness

$1,000 à 10% World Bank Flagship Reports$4,712 à 46%

Growth and Job Creation$775 à 7%

Poverty and Shared Prosperity$1,032 à 10%

FIGURE B.1: KCP III Allocations by Window From Inception to June 30, 2017 (US$ Thousands)

FIGURE B.2 KCP III Allocations and Distriribution, by Region From Inception to June 30, 2017 (US$ Thousands)

Global $8,028 à 78%

Latin Americal and Caibbean$380 à 4%

Asia $480 à 5%

Africa $1,032 à 13%

FIGURE B.2 : KCP III Allocations and Distriribution, by Region US$ Thousands

42

FIGURE B.3 KCP III Allocations and Distriribution From Inception to June 30, 2017 (US$ Thousands)FIGURE B.3: KCP III Allocations and Distriribution From Inception to June 30, 2017 (US$ Thousands)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Disbursements Allocations

Poverty and

Shared Prosperity

Growth and

Job Creation

World Bank Flagship Reports

Service Delivery

and Effectiveness

International Cooperation

and Global Public

Goods

Innovation in Data

Production Methods, Analysis

and Dissemination

Fragility and Risk

Management

200

1,601

778560 528

225 138

4,712

3,908

775

443

1,032

682

FIGURE B.4 KCP III Disbursements, by Window From Inception to June 30, 2017 (US$ Thousands)

Innovation in Data Production Methods, Analysis and Dissemination

$778 à 12%

International Cooperation and Global Public Goods

$528 à 8%

Service Delivery and Effectiveness

$138 à 2%

World Bank Flagship Reports$3,908 à 60%

Growth and Job Creation$433 à 7%

Poverty and Shared Prosperity$682 à 11%

FIGURE B.4 : KCP III Disbursements, by Window From Inception to June 30, 2017 (US$ Thousands)

43

TABLE B.1 KCP II Allocations and Disbursements as of June 30, 2017 (US$)

TTL Project name Allocations

PoVerty dynamIcs and PublIc serVIce delIVery

1 Legovini, Arianna Impact Evaluation of Youth-Friendly Services on Voluntary Counseling and Testing among the Youth aged 15–24 years in Kenya

99,658.91

2 Das, Jishnu Learning and Educational Achievements in Pakistan (LEAPS): Continuation

173,219.65

3 Goldstein, Markus, The Effects of Home Based HIV Counseling & Testing: IE of a Program in Kenya

83,010.37

4 de Walque, Damien, HIV/AIDS Treatment and Prevention 99,999.40

5 Beegle, Kathleen Kagera Health and Development Survey 2010: Long-Run Patterns of Growth and Poverty in Africa

162,386.05

6 Lanjouw, Peter Economic Growth and Crisis in Africa: Improving Methods for Measuring Poverty

119,956.36

7 Goldstein, Markus The Impact of Providing Land Titles in Ghana 69,991.00

8 Goldstein, Markus Impact of Urban Land Titling: Evidence from the Land Lottery in Burkina Faso

0.00

9 Chen, Shaohua Poverty Mapping in China 24,077.69

10 Milante, Gary WDR 2011: Conflict and Development 1,276,491.78

11 Revenga, Ana /Shetty, Sudhir

World Development Report 2012: Gender Equity and Development

817,388.29

12 Giles, John Policy, Governance and the Private Sector in the Provision of Public Services: Evidence from Indonesia’s Health Sector

224,507.01

13 Chen, Shaohua Correcting the Sampling Bias of the China Urban Household Survey

54,967.71

14 Ozler, Berk TASAF R3 Survey Support 130,000.00

15 Beegle, Kathleen LSMS: Improving the Quality and Comparability of Income Data through Research and Dissemination

147,976.54

16 Carletto, Gero Measuring Development Indicators for Pastoralist Populations 94,999.09

17 Galasso, Emanuela Learning from Interventions to Improve Parenting Skills in Chile 79,999.82

18 Kondylis, Florence Measuring Inequality and Inequality of Opportunity Using DIME Microdata

27,848.09

19 Kanz, Martin Implications for Poverty of Productivity Growth in Agriculture & Non-Agriculture

99,127.93

20 Galasso, Emanuela A 10-Year Follow-up of a Community-Level Nutrition Program in Madagascar

82,086.18

21 Kondylis, Florence Implementing a Multi-Disciplinary Tool for Social Capital Measurement

99,747.69

44

TTL Project name Allocations

22 Das, Jishnu Quality of Care in Health Markets: Supply- and Demand-Side Perspectives

334,951.56

23 Deininger, Klaus Gendered Impacts of Low-Cost Land Titling in a Post-Conflict Environment: The Case of Rwanda

149,939.45

24 Deininger, Klaus Economic and Gender Impacts of Peri-Urban Land Titling: The Case of Dar es Salaam

99,760.79

25 Kondylis, Florence Governing Water for Agriculture: What Institutions for Which Contexts?

149,935.47

26 Chen, Shaohua How to Improve the World Bank’s Global Poverty Monitoring 149,900.96

27 Lanjouw, Peter Changeable Inequalities: Facts, Perceptions and Policies 223,872.79

28 Giles, John Early Childhood Nutrition, Availability of Health Service Providers and Life Outcomes as Young Adults: Evidence from Indonesia

159,488.74

29 Van de Walle, Dominique

Welfare Impacts of Marital Status Shocks in Senegal and the Implications for Social Protection Policy

90,000.00

30 Piza, Caio Can a Formal Address Do the Job? Favela Pacification in Rio de Janeiro

99,889.88

31 Beegle, Kathleen /Galasso, Emanuela

The Role of Public Works Programs in Enhancing Food Security: The Malawi Social Action Fund

210,898.00

32 Gauri, Varun WDR 2015 “The Behavioral and Social Foundations of Economic Development”

679,567.96

33 Rao, Vijayendra Using Behavioral Economics to Measure and Improve CDD Operations

50,414.14

34 di Maro, Vincenzo Behavioral Economics for Better Public Service Management 124,123.39

35 Khemani, Stuti Uganda: Building Institutions for Government Accountability 199,997.13

36 de Walque, Damien An Evaluation of Long-Term Impacts of an Integrated Early Childhood Intervention for Low-Income Families in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

124,999.86

37 Lanjouw, Peter Global Poverty and Inequality Monitoring in the 21st Century 429,106.22

38 Gauri, Varun WDR 2015: Building an Evidence Base for the World Development Report

373,183.36

39 Kraay, Aart How Do We Motivate Public Sector Workers in Developing Countries?

149,647.68

40 Beegle, Kathleen Harmonized Microdata for Enhanced Global Poverty Monitoring: The International Income Distribution Database (I2D2)

87,569.32

41 Chen, Shaohua Assessing the Impact of 2011 ICP PPPs on Global Poverty Estimates

133,721.47

42 Larson, Donald What Happens in Rural Areas When Food Prices Spike? 99,999.75

43 Carletto, Gero Improving Poverty and Shared Prosperity Measurement: An Experiment to Measure Purchases of Food away from Home

99,639.55

44 Saliola, Federica Equality of Opportunity in Global Prosperity 238,357.40

45

TTL Project name Allocations

45 Serajuddin, Umar National Account vs. Survey Based Welfare 178,095.10

46 Goldstein, Markus Gender, Insurance and Agricultural Productivity 68,571.74

47 Do, Quy-Toan Demand Curve for Clean Water and Its Determinants in a Low-Income Context

199,999.52

48 Wagstaff, Adam Improving Data on Population Health and Skills Using Tablet-Compatible Household Survey Diagnostic Instruments

90,448.02

49 Jacoby, Hanan Decentralizing Irrigation Management: Evidence from the Indus Basin of Pakistan

149,971.78

50 Das, Jishnu Quality of Care, Its Determinants and How It Can Be Improved 149,522.10

51 Carletto, Gero Census Independent Sampling Strategy Using Satellite Imagery: Validating and Improving a Proposed Methodology in Myanmar

49,560.40

52 Ozler, Berk Weekend Special: A Sports-Based Intervention to Encourage Uptake of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision in Zimbabwe

–

53 Chandra, Vandana GMR 2015 –2017 “Monitoring and Reporting the Twin Goals” 295,000.00

TOTAL POVERTY DYNAMICS AND PUBLIC SERVICE DELIVERY 9,607,573.09

InVestment clImate and trade and IntegratIon

54 Legovini, Arianna Strengthening Agricultural Production Systems and Facilitating Access to Markets: Impact Evaluation of Nigeria’s Commercial Agriculture Development

91,519.32

55 McKenzie, David How Much Do Management Practices Matter? A Randomized Experiment in India

49,999.00

56 McKenzie, David Employment Creation in Largwe and Small Firms 44,367.72

57 Schmukler, Sergio Globalization, Risk, and Crises 69,795.00

58 Hallaward-Driemeier, Mary

Comparable Disaggregated Census Data across Developing Countries

69,828.10

59 Ozler, Berk An Experimental Study of “Poverty Traps” among Micro-Entrepreneur Groups

128,000.00

60 Giles, John Labor Markets and Impacts of the Financial Crisis: Evidence from China and India

224,999.60

61 Dupriez, Olivier Modeling and Analysis of Consumption Patterns 148,829.72

62 Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Regulation and Bank Stability 249,684.17

63 Jacoby, Hanan Transport Costs and Development: Evidence from China’s Infrastructure Boom

40,000.00

64 Peria, Maria Soledad Martinez

The Financial Crisis and Foreign Bank Participation in Developing Countries

39,930.00

65 Fernandes, Ana Margarida

Services, FDI and Endogenous Productivity Effects in the European Neighborhood Policy—A Quantitative Assessment for Georgia

89,825.68

66 Ozden, Caglar Migration of Turkey’s Top Students—Brain Drain and Brain Gain –

46

TTL Project name Allocations

67 Hevia, Constantino FDI and Macroeconomic Stability 39,910.00

68 Dailami, Mansoor Analyzing the Impact of Financial Crisis on International Bank Lending to Developing Countries

98,529.64

69 Kraay, Aart The Growth Effects of Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries 44,940.00

70 Kraay, Aart Reticent Respondents and Cross-Country Survey Data on Corruption

74,860.00

71 Peria, Maria Soledad Martinez

Bank Competition and Access to Finance 56,215.32

72 McKenzie, David Can Microfinance Foster Entrepreneurship in Poor Communities?

73,118.58

73 Maloney, William Innovation and Growth 65,576.10

74 Legovini, Arianna Reducing Informality among Firms in Minas Gerais, Brazil 79,463.93

75 Klapper, Leora Private Sector Dynamics in Côte d’Ivoire 30,489.39

76 Keefer, Philip/Kraay, Aart

Worldwide Governance Indicators 95,950.00

77 Demirguc-Kunt, Asli Will There Be a Phoenix Miracle? Firm-Level Evidence from Financial Crises

49,912.00

78 Schmukler, Sergio On the Use of Domestic and International Debt Markets 99,988.86

79 Kee, Hiau Looi On FDI Spillovers 34,974.42

80 Loayza, Norman, Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy 30,000.00

81 Anginer, Deniz Bank Bailouts and Moral Hazard 47,300.00

82 Kanz, Martin Storage and Trade Policies for Improving Food Security 129,929.38

83 Bown, Chad Least Developed Countries and the Externality Impact of WTO Dispute Settlement

75,472.39

84 Kraay, Aart Macroeconomic Impacts of Aid and Public Spending 50,000.00

85 Schmukler, Sergio Understanding Capital Flows to Developing Countries 89,998.76

86 Ozden, Caglar Database of Emigration Laws and Policies in Developing Countries

39,893.46

87 Klapper, Leora Global Financial Inclusion Indicators 40,000.00

88 Shilpi, Forhad Food Prices, Middlemen, and Marketing Institutions: Evidence from Bangladesh

123,142.35

89 Kondylis, Florence How Does the Speed of Justice Affect Firms? Experimental Evidence from Senegal.

97,822.24

90 Nguyen, Ha Currency Wars 31,875.00

91 Loayza, Norman WDR 2014: Managing Risk for Development 596,305.58

92 Deininger, Klaus Land Tenure Regularization in Nigeria: Potential Benefits and Implementation Modalities

109,684.95

93 Kraay, Aart Macro and Micro Lessons from Project Data 49,584.00

47

TTL Project name Allocations

94 McKenzie, David Generating Job Matches between Firms and Young Women in Jordan

115,000.00

95 Anginer, Deniz Bank Capital and Systemic Stability: A Cross-Country Analyses 39,783.00

96 Vashakdmadze, Ekaterine

Enhanced Global Macro/Financial Model for Developing Countries

134,972.00

97 Kraay, Aart Worldwide Governance Indicators 2014–15 48,341.00

98 Schmukler, Sergio Firm Financing from Capital Markets 74,993.27

99 McKenzie, David Improving the Management and Profits of Small Businesses and Their Measurement

149,939.21

100 Gine, Xavier Behaviorally Informed Mystery Shopping Tools for Consumer Protection Policymakers

99,727.16

101 Ahmed, Syud Amer The Gains from International Migration Revisited 125,000.00

102 Peria, Maria Soledad Martinez

Global Financial Development Report 199,990.21

103 Klapper, Leora Salary Susu Plus: The Impact of Formal Savings on Spending and Borrowing

49,410.38

104 Peria, Maria Soledad Martinez

Corporate Governance and Debt Maturity 49,766.00

105 Ruiz-Ortega, Claudia

Credit Bureau in Mexico 49,897.20

106 Saliola, Federica Benchmarking Public Procurement 149,998.97

107 Ozden, Caglar Demographic Change and International Integration 163,512.92

108 Schmukler, Sergio Capital Flows: Geography, Drivers and Implications 109,992.83

TOTAL INVESTMENT CLIMATE & TRADE AND INTEGRATION 5,162,038.81

global PublIc goods

109 Toman, Michael Improving Governance of African River Basins – Determinants of Successes and Failures in Past Reforms

120,000.00

110 Toman, Michael Economic Impacts of Low Carbon Growth Scenarios in Selected Developing Countries

178,800.29

111 Kessides, Ioannis Improving Efficiency and Climate Change Mitigation—Electricity Market Competition and Low-Carbon Generation Technologies

49,508.00

112 Timilsina, Govinda Economics of Biofuels and Potential Impacts on Biodiversity 120,545.60

113 de Walque, Damien Research on HIV/AIDS Prevention and Treatment 51,734.35

114 Toman, Michael Green Growth Opportunities in Developing Countries 384,422.84

115 Mistiaen, Johan Survey Data Repository and Management Toolkit 218,463.62

116 Timilsina, Govinda Quantifying the Transaction Costs of Selected Energy Efficiency Measures to Reduce GHG Emissions

74,029.76

117 Van Rensburg, Theo Nortje Janse

Enhanced Global Macro/Financial Model for Developing Countries

81,939.03

48

TTL Project name Allocations

118 Lederman, Daniel International Survey on Intellectual Property Enforcement Agencies

17,724.32

119 Toman, Michael The Electricity/Groundwater Nexus for Indian Farmers: Implications of Electricity Subsidy Reform for Efficiency and Distribution

–

120 Dasgupta, Susmita Mobilizing Spatial Economics and Information for Tiger Habitat Conservation

297,445.60

121 Fantom, Neil Data Resource Center for Structural Economic Analysis 159,836.82

122 Toman, Michael Economic Valuation of Losses Due to “Amazon Dieback” 275,724.39

123 Toman, Michael Community Forestry and Pro-Poor Carbon Sequestration in Nepal

377,062.13

124 Bussolo, Maurizzio/ Go, Delfin

Global Demand System for Consumer Behavior 99,890.20

125 Toman, Michael International Cooperation and Conflict over Water 47,949.00

126 Veerappan, Malarvizhi

Open Metadata and Methods Application 363,599.76

127 Veerappan, Malarvizhi

Visualization and Analysis Application 182,683.05

128 Dasgupta, Susmita The Economics of Adaptation to Salinity Intrusion: The Case of Coastal Bangladesh

139,663.18

129 Timilsina, Govinda Linking Bottom-Up and Top-Down Models for Assessing Economy-Wide Impacts of Discrete Climate Change Mitigation Measures

69,782.65

130 Zhao, Qinghua Online Data Analysis Toolkit (ODAT) 56,794.01

131 Lokshin, Michael Development of Innovative Tools and Technologies for the Global Research Community

288,226.52

132 Welch, Matthew A Microdata Dissemination Challenge: Balancing Data Protection and Data Utility

86,579.00

133 Hamadeh, Nada Improving PPP Time Series 99,220.00

134 Toman, Michael Hands-On Capacity Building in Environmental Economics: A Proposed Collaboration with the Environment for Development Initiative

164,345.26

135 Toman, Michael/Strand, Jon

Economy-Wide Valuation of Local/Regional Ecosystem Services from Amazon Forest Area

99,531.33

136 Toman, Michael Supporting Ethiopia’s Push for 9 Million Improved Cooking Stoves to Improve Health and Combat Climate Change

125,000.00

137 Veerappan, Malarvizhi

Data Version Management and Linked Data 93,796.16

138 Chen, Shaohua Improving and Expanding PovcalNet 99,888.77

139 Toman, Michael Economic Valuation of Changes in the Amazon Forest Area 1,713,292.16

140 Sajaia, Zurab Functionality to Conduct Complex Household and Agricultural Surveys with CAPI

55,810.00

49

TTL Project name Allocations

141 Dasgupta, Susmita Ecologically Cost-Effective Road Investment in Tropical Forests 219,551.06

142 Feng, Juan UNICEF-WHO-The World Bank Joint Child Malnutrition Dataset Expansion

179,929.06

143 Ahmed, Syud Amer Sustainable Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity under a Changing Climate

186,000.00

TOTAL GLOBAL PUBLIC GOODS 6,778,767.92

economIc deVeloPment and structural change

144 Goldstein, Markus Stimulating Industrial Upgrading in Sub-Saharan Africa 192,991.78

145 Sepulveda, Claudia Research Agenda in New Structural Economics 144,552.65

146 Sepulveda, Claudia Structural Transformation, Enterprise Policies, and Economic Growth

136,416.27

147 Sepulveda, Claudia Country Case Studies on Structural Change and Industrial Policies

297,841.97

148 Loayza, Norman Industrial Policy in an Uncertain Environment 72,697.53

149 Fernandes, Ana Margarida

Export Transaction Database 148,793.89

150 Giles, John Structural Transformation and Rural Social Protection Policies: Evidence from China

250,000.00

151 Fernandes, Ana Margarida

Upgrading the Networking and Technological Capacity of Suppliers in South Africa

172,533.33

152 Deichmann, Uwe Moving to Density: A Research Program on the Rural-Urban Transformation in Developing Countries

498,172.94

153 Deichmann, Uwe Testing the Robustness of the Energy Intensity Kuznets Curve 29,996.00

154 Lederman, Daniel Commodity Prices, Household Adjustments, and Structural Transformation

42,146.00

155 Hallward-Driemeier-Mary

Industrial Structure, Productivity, Growth and Welfare 148,527.00

156 Giles, John Early Work Experiences and the Skills of Young Adults: Evidence from Senegal

140,985.23

157 Beegle, Kathleen WDR 2013: Jobs 701,926.59

158 Hon, Vivian Structural Transformation, Macroeconomic Behaviors and Industrial Policies

65,410.20

159 Fernandes, Ana Margarida

Global Analysis of the Impact of Policies and Firm Dynamics in Trade

159,990.15

160 Go, Delfin Structural Change in a Dynamic World 200,000.00

161 Deichmann, Uwe Understanding the Broader Impacts of Transport Infrastructure Investments

259,258.70

162 Lofgren, Hans Structural Transformation Analysis with MAMS 139,999.05

163 Hallward-Driemeier, Mary

MENA Job Creation, Structural Change and Economic Development

1,047,273.99

50

TTL Project name Allocations

164 Schmukler, Sergio Institutional Investors 49,994.73

165 Deininger, Klaus Promoting Rural-Urban Integration in China 100,000.00

166 Giles, John Community, Family and Household Support for the Elderly in the Wake of Rapid Urbanization: Evidence from Rural China

199,923.47

167 Maliszewska, Maryla

Aging: The Changing Nature of Intergenerational Flows in Developing Countries

150,000.00

168 Lofgren, Hans Simple Global Analysis with the R23 Model and Database for 200+ Countries

99,999.08

169 Peria, Maria Soledad Martinez

Corporate Governance and Systemic Risk 44,326.50

170 Maliszewska, Maryla

The Coming Wave of Educated Workers: Size and Impact on Global Inequality and Poverty

214,999.40

171 Kanz, Martin/ Klapper, Leora

The Impact of Wage Frequency on Employee Performance: A Field Experiment with Factory Workers Receiving Electronic Wage Payments in Bangladesh

99,932.42

172 Peria, Maria Soledad Martinez

GFDR 384,830.08

173 Deichmann, Uwe WDR 2016: The Internet and Development 449,943.77

174 McKenzie, David Upgrading Management Technology in Colombia: A Randomized Experiment

100,000.00

175 Ruiz-Ortega, Claudia

Providing Technical Support to Financial Institutions in Rural Mexico

59,962.00

176 Vashakmadze, Ekaterine

Global Economic Prospects Flagship 200,000.00

TOTAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE 7,003,424.72

KCP II TOTAL ALLOCATIONS & DISBURSEMENTS 28,551,804.54

51

TABLE B.2 KCP III Allocations and Disbursements As of June 30, 2017 (US$)

TTL Project name Allocations Disbursements Available

FragIlIty and rIsk management

1 Cull, Robert Global FinaÅncial Development Report 2016: Global Banking

200,000.00 – 200,000.00

2 Holmlund, Marcus

Social Network Mapping and Analysis for Youth Living in High-Violence Urban Neighborhoods in Honduras

130,000.00 – 130,000.00

TOTAL FRAGILITY AND RISK MANAGEMENT 330,000.00 0.00 330,000.00

InnoVatIon In data ProductIon methods, analysIs and dIssemInatIon

3 Khokhar, Tariq Producing, Analyzing and Visualizing Global Income Distributions

60,000.00 55,874.05 4,125.95

4 Dupriez, Olivier Calibration in Sample Survey Estimation: Improving the Quality of Socioeconomic Indicators by Using Auxiliary Information

74,931.45 74,931.45 –

5 Dupriez, Olivier Generation of Synthetic Data for ex ante Impact Assessments

90,000.00 89,654.78 345.22

6 Kraay, Aart Worldwide Governance Indicators 2016–2018

100,000.00 39,825.63 60,174.37

7 Cull, Robert 2016 World Bank Survey of Bank Regulation and Supervision

200,000.00 8,974.76 191,025.24

8 Dang, Hai-Anh Poverty Imputation Handbook and Research

100,000.00 47,303.88 52,696.12

9 Filmer, Deon Measuring and Analyzing Teacher Knowledge and Behavior

100,000.00 99,989.00 11.00

10 Perotti, Valeria/ Rodriguez Meza, Jorge Luis

Benchmarking the Private Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

300,000.00 299,627.15 372.85

11 Dang, Hai-Anh Measuring Countries’ Statistical Capacity

120,000.00 10,039.20 109,960.80

12 Dupriez, Olivier Machine Learning Algorithms for Poverty Prediction: An Empirical Comparative Assessment

180,000.00 39,500.00 140,500.00

13 Kilic, Talip Intra-Household Allocation of and Gender Differences in Consumption Poverty

130,000.00 – 130,000.00

14 Rogger, Daniel Measuring Process Productivity in Bureaucracies

80,000.00 12,237.25 67,762.75

15 Selod, Harris Using Big Data to Measure Urban Congestion

66,000.00 – 66,000.00

TOTAL INNOVATION IN DATA PRODUCTION METHODS, ANALYSIS AND DISSEMINATION

1,600,931.45 777,957.15 822,974.30

52

TTL Project name Allocations Disbursements Available

InternatIonal cooPeratIon and global PublIc goods

16 Maliszewska, Maryla

Mega-Regional Trade Agreements: Implications for Developing Countries

99,999.81 99,999.81 –

17 Lofgren, Hans/Ha, Jongrim

The Role of Confidence in the Cross-Border Transmission and Propagation of Shocks

210,000.00 179,935.17 30,064.83

18 Timilsina, Govinda

China Climate Policy Modeling 50,000.00 47,830.22 2,169.78

19 Ozden, Caglar Migration and Labor Market Implications in the South

100,000.00 99,999.89 0.11

20 Mattoo, Aaditya / Rijkers, Bob

Trade Policy, Poverty and Shared Prosperity

100,000.00 99,905.44 94.56

21 Kaushik, Siddhesh Vishwanath/ Ferrantino, Michael

Non-Tariff Measures (NTM) Indicators

100,000.00 35,133.00 64,867.00

22 Cull, Robert After the Global Financial Crisis: Bank Regulation and Supervision

165,000.00 – 165,000.00

TOTAL INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND GLOBAL PUBLIC GOODS

824,991.81 562,803.53 262,196.28

23 Das, Jishnu Kenya Patient Safety Impact Evaluation

150,000.00 138,129.08 11,870.92

24 de Walque, Damien

Extension of the RESPECT Study in Tanzania to the Population of Commercial Sex Workers and Women at High Risk in Dar-es-Salaam

75,000.00 – 75,000.00

25 Das, Jishnu From Access to Quality: Ramping Up Measurement and Improvement of Health Care Quality

250,000.00 24,000.00 226,000.00

26 Rijkers, Bob Performance Pay in Customs: Evidence from Madagascar

75,000.00 – 75,000.00

27 Ozier, Owen A New Model for Primary Schooling in Developing Countries

250,000.00 71,585.08 178,414.92

28 Ozler, Berk Increasing Uptake of Long Acting Reversible Contraceptives (LARCs) among Adolescent Females in Cameroon

200,000.00 18,807.77 181,192.23

TOTAL SERVICE DELIVERY AND AID EFFECTIVENESS 1,000,000.00 252,521.93 747,478.07

53

TTL Project name Allocations Disbursements Available

World bank FlagshIP rePorts

29 Deichmann, Uwe

WDR 2016: Internet for Development

607,793.40 431,253.69 176,539.71

30 Lofgren, Hans/ Ha, Jongrim

Economic Spillovers in an Era of Globalization: Facts, Channels and Implications

120,000.00 46,528.98 73,471.02

31 Maliszewska, Maryla

Global Monitoring Report 120,000.00 120,000.00 –

32 Lopez-Calva, Luis-Felipe

WDR 2017: Governance and the Law

1,024,255.75 1,024,255.75 –

33 Gauri, Varun WDR 2015 Operationalization 150,000.00 39,686.55 110,313.45

34 Filmer, Deon / Rogers, Halsey

WDR 2018: Realizing the Promise of Education for Development

400,000.00 399,869.58 130.42

35 Lopez-Calva, Luis-Felipe

WDR 2017: Governance and the Law

949,971.00 920,740.38 29,230.62

36 Filmer, Deon/Rogers, Halsey

WDR 2018: Realizing the Promise of Education for Development

1,340,435.78 925,300.43 415,135.35

TOTAL WORLD BANK FLAGSHIP REPORTS 4,712,455.93 3,907,635.36 804,820.57

groWth and Job creatIon

37 Ramalho, Rita Job Quality Framework 149,930.88 149,930.88 –

38 Loayza, Norman

International Benchmarking for Country Diagnostics

50,000.00 18,136.06 31,863.94

39 McKenzie, David

Micro and Small Firm Death in Developing Countries

75,000.00 74,929.02 70.98

40 Toman, Michael Economy-Wide Effects of Expanded Electricity Access and Impacts of Household Electricity Tariff Changes in Ethiopia

100,000.00 99,821.77 178.23

41 Bustelo, Federico

Getting Water and Sewerage Connections in 31 Mexican States and Mexico City

99,830.17 99,830.17 –

42 Francis, David / Rodriguez Meza, Jorge Luis

Making Enforceable Agreements: Data and Indicator Pilot

150,000.00 – 150,000.00

43 Schmukler, Sergio

The Effects of Interest Rate Ceilings on Credit Markets: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Chile

150,000.00 – 150,000.00

TOTAL GROWTH AND JOB CREATION 774,761.05 442,647.90 332,113.15

54

TTL Project name Allocations Disbursements Available

PoVerty and shared ProsPerIty

44 Hasan, Tazeen Equality of Opportunity in Global Prosperity

150,000.00 149,894.77 105.23

45 Toman, Michael The Effect of Improved Biomass Cookstoves on Indoor Air Quality and Respiratory Health in Rural Ethiopia

100,000.00 99,659.94 340.06

46 Saliola, Federica

Living Life 100,000.00 99,990.74 9.26

47 Kanz, Martin What Drives the Demand for Islamic Finance? Evidence from Field Experiments with Low-Income Households in Indonesia

– – –

48 Jacoby, Hanan/Do, Quy-Toan

Electricity Demand in Vietnam 180,000.00 116,878.30 63,121.70

49 Ratha, Dilip Migration and the Law 300,000.00 107,930.78 192,069.22

50 Toman, Michael Effect of Improved Biomass Cookstoves on Indoor Air Quality and Respiratory Health in Rural Ethiopia Part 3

57,000.00 53,000.00 4,000.00

51 Perotti, Valeria Living Life (Phase II) 145,000.00 54,283.20 90,716.80

TOTAL POVERTY AND SHARED PROSPERITY 1,032,000.00 681,637.73 350,362.27

KCP III TOTAL ALLOCATIONS, June 30, 2017 10,275,148.24 6,625,203.60 3,649,944.64

55

TABLE B.3 Completed KCP II Projects in FY2017 (US$)

# Task leader Project name Disbursement

PoVerty dynamIcs and PublIc serVIce delIVery

1 Rao, Vijayendra Using Behavioral Economics to Measure and Improve CDD Operations

50,414.14

2 Wagstaff, Robert Improving Data on Population Health and Skills Using Tablet-Compatible Household Survey Diagnostic Instruments

90,448.02

3 Jacoby, Hanan Decentralizing Irrigation Management: Evidence from the Indus Basin of Pakistan

149,971.78

4 Das, Jishnu Quality of Care, Its Determinants and How It Can Be Improved 149,522.10

5 Chen, Shaohua Assessing the Impact of 2011 ICP PPPs on Global Poverty Estimates

133,721.47

6 Saliola, Federica Equality of Opportunity in Global Prosperity 238,357.40

7 Serajuddin, Umar National Account vs. Survey Based Welfare 178,095.10

8 Chandra, Vandana GMR 2015–2017 “Monitoring and Reporting the Twin Goals” 295,000.00

TOTAL POVERTY DYNAMICS AND PUBLIC SERVICE DELIVERY 1,285,530.01

InVestment clImate & trade and IntegratIon

9 Schmukler, Sergio Firm Financing from Capital Markets 74,993.27

10 Ozden, Caglar Demographic Change and International Integration 163,512.92

11 Ruiz-Ortega, Claudia

Credit Bureau in Mexico 49,897.20

12 Schmukler, Sergio Capital Flows: Geography, Drivers and Implications 109,992.83

TOTAL INVESTMENT CLIMATE & TRADE AND INTEGRATION 398,396.22

global PublIc goods

13 Chen, Shaohua Improving and Expanding PovcalNet 99,888.77

14 Toman, Michael Economic Valuation of Changes in the Amazon Forest Area 1,713,292.16

15 Ahmed, Syud Amer

Sustainable Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity under a Changing Climate

186,000.00

16 Feng, Juan UNICEF-WHO-The World Bank Joint Child Malnutrition Dataset Expansion

179,929.06

17 Dasgupta, Susmita

Ecologically Cost-Effective Road Investment in Tropical Forests 219,551.06

TOTAL GLOBAL PUBLIC GOODS 2,398,661.05

economIc deVeloPment and structural change

18 Hallward-Driemeier, Mary

MENA Job Creation, Structural Change and Economic Development

1,047,273.99

19 Maliszewska, Maryla

The Coming Wave of Educated Workers: Size and Impact on Global Inequality and Poverty

214,999.40

20 Peria, Maria Soledad Martinez

GFDR 384,830.08

21 Ruiz-Ortega, Claudia

Providing Technical Support to Financial Institutions in Rural Mexico

59,962.00

Total Economic Development and Structural Change 1,707,065.47

56

TABLE B.4 Completed KCP III Projects in FY2017 (US$)

# Task leader Project name Disbursement

InnoVatIon In data ProductIon methods, analysIs and dIssemInatIon

1 Khokhar, Tariq Producing, Analyzing and Visualizing Global Income Distributions

55,874.05

2 Dupriez, Olivier Calibration in Sample Survey Estimation: Improving the Quality of Socioeconomic Indicators by Using Auxiliary Information

74,931.45

3 Dupriez, Olivier Generation of Synthetic Data for ex ante Impact Assessments 89,654.78

4 Filmer, Deon Measuring and Analyzing Teacher Knowledge and Behavior 99,989.00

5 Perotti, Valeria/ Rodriguez Meza, Jorge Luis

Benchmarking the Private Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa 299,627.15

TOTAL INNOVATION IN DATA PRODUCTION METHODS, ANALYSIS AND DISSEMINATION

620,076.43

InternatIonal cooPeratIon and global PublIc goods

6 Maliszewska, Maryla

Mega-Regional Trade Agreements: Implications for Developing Countries

99,999.81

7 Timilsina, Govinda China Climate Policy Modeling 47,830.22

8 Ozden, Caglar Migration and Labor Market Implications in the South 99,999.89

9 Mattoo, Aaditya/ Rijkers, Bob

Trade Policy, Poverty and Shared Prosperity 99,905.44

TOTAL INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND GLOBAL PUBLIC GOODS 347,735.36

World bank FlagshIP rePorts

10 Lopez-Calva, Luis-Felipe

World Development Report 2017: Governance and the Law 1,024,255.75

11 Lopez-Calva, Luis-Felipe

World Development Report 2017: Governance and the Law 920,740.38

TOTAL WORLD BANK FLAGSHIP REPORTS 1,944,996.13

groWth and Job creatIon

12 Ramalho, Rita Job Quality Framework 149,930.88

13 McKenzie, David Micro and Small Firm Death in Developing Countries 74,929.02

14 Bustelo, Federico Getting Water and Sewerage Connections in 31 Mexican States and Mexico City

99,830.17

Total GROWTH AND JOB CREATION 324,690.07

Poverty and Shared Prosperity

15 Hasan, Tazeen Equality of Opportunity in Global Prosperity 149,894.77

16 Toman, Michael The Effect of Improved Biomass Cookstoves on Indoor Air Quality and Respiratory Health in Rural Ethiopia

99,659.94

17Saliola, Federica Living Life

99,990.74

TOTAL POVERTY AND SHARED PROSPERITY 349,545.45

Dropped Project

Kanz, Martin What Drives the Demand for Islamic Finance? Evidence from Field Experiments with Low-Income Households in Indonesia

57

TABLE B.5 Ongoing KCP III Projects in FY2017 (US$)

TTL Project name Allocations

FragIlIty andrIsk management

1 Cull, Robert Global Financial Development Report 2016: Global Banking 200,000.00

2 Holmlund, Marcus Social Network Mapping and Analysis for Youth Living in High-Violence Urban Neighborhoods in Honduras

130,000.00

InnoVatIon In data ProductIon methods, analysIs and dIssemInatIon

3 Kraay, Aart Worldwide Governance Indicators 2016–2018 100,000.00

4 Cull, Robert 2016 World Bank Survey of Bank Regulation and Supervision 200,000.00

5 Dang, Hai-Anh Poverty Imputation Handbook and Research 100,000.00

6 Dang, Hai-Anh Measuring Countries’ Statistical Capacity 120,000.00

7 Dupriez, Olivier Machine Learning Algorithms for Poverty Prediction: An Empirical Comparative Assessment

180,000.00

8 Kilic, Talip Intra-Household Allocation of and Gender Differences in Consumption Poverty

130,000.00

9 Rogger, Daniel Measuring Process Productivity in Bureaucracies 80,000.00

10 Selod, Harris Using Big Data to Measure Urban Congestion 66,000.00

InternatIonal cooPeratIon and global PublIc goods

11 Lofgren, Hans /Ha, Jongrim

The Role of Confidence in the Cross-Border Transmission and Propagation of Shocks

210,000.00

12 Kaushik, Siddhesh Vishwanath/ Ferrantino, Michael

Non-Tariff Measures (NTM) Indicators 100,000.00

13 Cull, Robert After the Global Financial Crisis: Bank Regulation and Supervision

165,000.00

serVIce delIVery and aId eFFectIVeness

14 Jishnu, Das Kenya Patient Safety Impact Evaluation 150,000.00

15 de Walque, Damien

Extension of the RESPECT Study in Tanzania to the Population of Commercial Sex Workers and Women at High Risk in Dar-es-Salaam

75,000.00

16 Das, Jishnu From Access to Quality: Ramping Up Measurement and Improvement of Health Care Quality

250,000.00

17 Rijkers, Bob Performance Pay in Customs: Evidence from Madagascar 75,000.00

18 Ozier, Owen A New Model for Primary Schooling in Developing Countries 250,000.00

19 Ozler, Berk Increasing Uptake of Long Acting Reversible Contraceptives (LARCs) among Adolescent Females in Cameroon

200,000.00

58

TTL Project name Allocations

World bank FlagshIP rePorts

20 Mishra, Deepak WDR 2016: Internet for Development 607,793.40

21 Lofgren, Hans / Ha, Jongrim

Economic Spillovers in an Era of Globalization: Facts, Channels and Implications

120,000.00

22 Maliszewska, Maryla

Global Monitoring Report 120,000.00

23 Varun, Gauri WDR 2015 Operationalization 150,000.00

24 Filmer, Deon/ Rogers, Halsey

WDR 2018: Realizing the Promise of Education for Development

400,000.00

25 Filmer, Deon/ Rogers, Halsey

WDR 2018: Realizing the Promise of Education for Development

1,340,435.78

GROWTH AND JOB CREATION

26 Loayza, Norman International Benchmarking for Country Diagnostics 50,000.00

27 Toman, Michael Economy-Wide Effects of Expanded Electricity Access and Impacts of Household Electricity Tariff Changes in Ethiopia

100,000.00

28 Francis, David/Rodriguez Meza, Jorge Luis

Making Enforceable Agreements: Data and Indicator Pilot 150,000.00

29 Schmukler, Sergio The Effects of Interest Rate Ceilings on Credit Markets: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Chile

150,000.00

PoVerty and shared ProsPerIty

30 Jacoby, Hanan/Do, Quy-Toan

Electricity Demand in Vietnam 180,000.00

31 Ratha, Dilip Migration and the Law 300,000.00

32 Toman, Michael Effect of Improved Biomass Cookstoves on Indoor Air Quality and Respiratory Health in Rural Ethiopia Part 3

57,000.00

33 Perotti, Valeria Living Life 145,000.00

59

kcp DonorS

KNOWLEDGE FOR CHANGE PROGRAM II DONORS

AUSTRALIAAustralian Agency for International

Development, Government of Australia

http://www.dfat.gov.au/

CANADACanadian International Development Agency,

Government of Canada

http://www.international.gc.ca/international/in-

dex.aspx?lang=eng

CHINAMinistry of Finance

http://www.mof.gov.cn/

DENMARKMinistry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark

http://um.dk/en

FINLANDDepartment for Development Policy

http://www.formin.fi/english

JAPANMinistry of Finance

http://www.mof.go.jp/english

REPUBLIC OF KOREAMinistry of Strategy and Finance

http://english.mosf.go.kr/

NORWAYNorwegian Agency for Development

Cooperation (NORAD)

Ministry of Foreign Affairs

https://www.norad.no/en/front/

http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/

ud.html?id=833

SINGAPOREMinistry of Finance

http://www.mof.gov.sg/

SWEDENSwedish International Development

Cooperation Agency (Sida)

Ministry of Foreign Affairs

http://www.sida.se/English/

http://www.government.se/

government-of-sweden/

ministry-for-foreign-affairs/

SWITZERLANDSwiss Agency for Development and

Cooperation,

Federal Department of Foreign Affairs

http://www.sdc.admin.ch/

UNITED KINGDOMDepartment for International Development

(DfID)

http://www.dfid.gov.uk/

60

KNOWLEDGE FOR CHANGE PROGRAM III DONORS

CANADADepartment of Foreign Affairs, Trade and

Development, Government of Canada

http://www.international.gc.ca/international/in-

dex.aspx?lang=eng

ESTONIAMinistry of Foreign Affairs

http://vm.ee/en

FINLANDDepartment for Development Policy

http://www.formin.fi/english

FRANCEAgence Française de Développement (AFD)

http://www.afd.fr/en

NORWAYMinistry of Foreign Affairs

http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/

ud.html?id=833

SWEDENMinistry of Foreign Affairs

http://www.government.se/

government-of-sweden/

ministry-for-foreign-affairs/

UNITED KINGDOMDepartment for International Development

(DfID)

http://www.dfid.gov.uk/