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1 Ministry of Environment, Water and Natural Resources ANALYSIS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF WOOD PRODUCTS IN KENYA Study carried out by: WANLEYS Consultancy Services, NAIROBI, KENYA JULY , 2013

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1

Ministry of Environment, Water and Natural Resources

ANALYSIS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF WOOD PRODUCTS

IN KENYA

Study carried out by:

WANLEYS Consultancy Services,

NAIROBI, KENYA

JULY , 2013

2

ABSTRACT Carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation contribute significantly to the

global climate change problem. REDD+ has been identified as one of the innovative

mechanism with potential to significantly reduce forest sector emissions in developing

tropical countries and therefore contribute to global climate change mitigation efforts.

Developing countries that voluntarily opt to participate in REDD+ will be expected to

formulate effective REDD+ strategies to support implementation. A number of analytical

studies have been proposed in Kenya to provide information necessary for the strategy

formulation process. Information on supply and demand of forest wood products in Kenya is

currently lacking and has been proposed as one of the studies to be done.

This study was commissioned to provide information on current wood supply potential,

current potential demand, critical analysis of supply and demand interactions, forecasting of

future demand and supply and policy and legal environment affecting supply and demand.

The Study approaches adopted include literature reviews, workshops, stakeholder

consultations, Focus Group Discussions and site visits

The study found that Kenya has a wood supply potential of 31.4 million m3 against a national

demand of 41.7 million m3 hence a current deficit of 10.3 million m

3. Timber, poles, fire

wood and charcoal supply stands at 7,363,414m3, 3,028,907m

3, 13,654,022m

3 and

7,358,717m3 while demand stands at 5,262,624m

3, 1,409,482m

3, 18,702,748m

3 and

16,325,810m3 respectively. Forecasts for a 20 year period indicate a 20.0% increase in supply

and 21.6% increase in demand by the year 2032 which signifies a gradually increasing deficit.

Analysis of policies and their impacts on supply and demand balances have identified those

that support increased wood production and those impacting on demand all pursuing

sustainability. Those policies that support tree planting through incentives, sustainable

harvesting and effective distribution of wood products need to be strongly supported by the

REDD+ strategy. Policies that negatively impact on wood production, promote unfair trade in

forestry and promote consumption without reflecting on mode of production will be

recommended for review and where possible harmonization with the forest policy.

Gaps in forestry that are not adequately addressed by the policies are identified and review

recommended while inadequacy of implementing institution is also addressed and

recommendations on capacity development made.

The REDD+ strategy will use the study findings to create an enabling environment for

achievement of sustainable wood supply from the existing forest resource base. The strategy

should, among others, promote good forest management practices including increasing forest

cover, through afforestation, protecting and conserving existing forest resources, engage other

wood producers, while at the same time, improve efficiencies in wood processing and

utilization methods.

3

ABBREVIATIONS CPAs Charcoal Producer Associations

CFAs Community Forest Associations

DDCs District Development Committees

DRC Democratic Republic of Congo

EAWLS East Africa Wild Life Society

EMCA Environmental Management and Coordination Act

ESDA Energy for Sustainable Development Africa

FCPF Forest Carbon Partnership Facility

FRA Forest Resources Assessment

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

FAN Forest Action Network

FD Forest Department

FAN Forest Action Network

GBM Green Belt Movement

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GFPM Global Forest Product Model

GIS Geographical Information System

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

KEFRI Kenya Forestry Research Institute

KFC Kenya Forestry College

KFSC Kenya Forestry Seed Centre

KFS Kenya Forest Service

KFWG Kenya Forest Working Group

KIA Kenya Investment Authority

KNBS Kenya National Bureau of Statistics

KPLC Kenya Power and Lighting Company

KWS Kenya Wildlife Society

LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas

M.A.I Mean Annual Increment

MENR Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources

MRV Monitoring, Reporting and Verification

NCCRS National Climate Change Response Strategy

NEMA National Environment Management Authority

NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations

NIC National Investment Council

NLC National Land Commission

NUDP National Urban Development Policy

PFM Public Financial Management

REA Rural Electrification Authority

REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (+) and

the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and

enhancement of forest carbon stocks

4

R-PIN Readiness Plan Idea Note

SMEs Small and Medium Enterprises

TNRF Tanzania Natural Resources Forum

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

WWF World Wildlife Fund

UNITS OF MEASURE Cm Centimeter

Dbh Diameter at Breast height

Ft Foot

Ha Hectare

Km Kilometer

Kgs Kilograms

Kshs Kenya Shillings

M3 Cubic Meter

No. Number

Tons Tones

USD US Dollar

Yr. Year

TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................... 2

ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................................................ 3

UNITS OF MEASURE................................................................................................................... 5

TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................ 6

LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................ 9

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................................................................... 11

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 12

1.1 Forests and Climate Change ............................................................................................... 18

1.2 Rationale for the Study ....................................................................................................... 18

1.3 Objectives of the Study ....................................................................................................... 19

1.4 Limitations of The Study .................................................................................................... 19

CHAPTER 2.0 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................. 20

2.1 Study Approach .................................................................................................................. 20

2.1.1 Supply potential ........................................................................................................... 20

2.1.2 Wood Demand ............................................................................................................. 20

2.1.3 Policy and legal environment review ........................................................................... 22

2.2 Study Methods .................................................................................................................... 23

2.2.1 Literature review .......................................................................................................... 23

2.2.2 Stakeholders consultations ........................................................................................... 23

2.2.3 Visits ............................................................................................................................ 24

2.2.4 Data analysis ................................................................................................................ 24

CHAPTER 3.0: WOOD PRODUCTS SUPPLY .......................................................................... 25

3.1 Forest Resource Base .......................................................................................................... 25

3.1.1 Public forests ................................................................................................................ 25

3.1.2 Forests in community and private lands ..................................................................... 25

3.1.3 Trees on farms.............................................................................................................. 25

3.2. Factors Affecting Supply Quantities of Wood................................................................... 26

3.2.1 Area of productive forests ............................................................................................ 26

3.2.2 Yielding capacities ....................................................................................................... 26

3.2.3 Policies and legal frameworks ..................................................................................... 26

3.3 Potential Supply Analysis ................................................................................................... 26

3.3.1 Forest areas .................................................................................................................. 27

3.3.2 Management of forests and yields .............................................................................. 27

3.4 Computing Supply .............................................................................................................. 32

3.4.1National wood supply potential .................................................................................... 33

3.4.2 Wood supply potential by Counties ............................................................................. 35

3.4.3 Imports ......................................................................................................................... 35

3. 5 Other Sources of Wood ...................................................................................................... 35

3.5.1 Wood from bush lands and wooded grasslands. .......................................................... 35

3.5.2 Illegal trade .................................................................................................................. 36

3.5.3 Farm residue and wood waste ...................................................................................... 36

CHAPTER 4.0 WOOD DEMAND .............................................................................................. 37

4.1 General Overview of Wood Products Demand .................................................................. 37

4.2 Summary of Factors Affecting Wood Demand .................................................................. 39

4.2.1Population ..................................................................................................................... 39

4.2.2 Levels of income .......................................................................................................... 40

4.2.3 Price of wood ............................................................................................................... 40

4.2.4 Processing recoveries. .................................................................................................. 40

4.2.5 Utilization efficiencies ................................................................................................. 41

4.2.6 Alternative products ..................................................................................................... 41

4.2.7 Illegal export trade ....................................................................................................... 41

4.3 Wood Demand Analysis ..................................................................................................... 41

4.3.1 Consumption or demand centers based study .............................................................. 42

4.3.2 Per capita based demand analysis ................................................................................ 43

4.3.3 Population .................................................................................................................... 45

4.3.4 National wood demand ................................................................................................ 45

4.4. Exports ............................................................................................................................... 46

4.5. Round Wood Conversion ................................................................................................... 46

4.6 Wood demand by counties .................................................................................................. 48

CHAPTER 5.0 CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY .................................... 49

5.1 Current Supply .................................................................................................................... 49

5.1.1 National wood supply potential ................................................................................... 49

5.1.2 Wood supply potential from counties .......................................................................... 50

5.1.3 Supply Situation ........................................................................................................... 50

5.2 Demand of Wood ................................................................................................................ 51

5.2.1 Demand situation ......................................................................................................... 52

5.3 Supply and Demand Balances ............................................................................................ 52

5.3.1 National wood supply and demand net balances ......................................................... 53

5.3.2 Wood supply and demand balances situation ............................................................. 54

5.3.3 Optimum potential supply............................................................................................ 54

5.4 Supply and Demand Balances by Counties ........................................................................ 55

5.4.1 Net wood producing counties ...................................................................................... 55

5.4.2 Net wood consuming counties ..................................................................................... 57

5.5 Forecasting Supply and Demand ........................................................................................ 58

5.5.1 Forecasting of supply ................................................................................................... 58

5.5.2 Results on forecasting of supply .................................................................................. 59

5.5.3 Forecasting of demand ................................................................................................. 60

5.5.4 Results of the forecasting of demand ........................................................................... 61

5.5.5 Projected supply and demand balances of wood ......................................................... 62

CHAPTER 6.0 POLICY AND LEGAL ENVIRONMENT ......................................................... 64

6.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................. 64

6.1.1 Forest management challenges in Kenya .................................................................... 64

6.2 Policy Environment ............................................................................................................ 65

6.2.1 Policies with positive influence on wood supply and demand .................................... 65

6.2.2 Factors with positive influence on wood supply and demand ..................................... 69

6.2.3 Factors that negatively impact on wood supply and demand ...................................... 70

CHAPTER 7.0 WAY FORWARD FOR THE REDD+ STRATEGY ......................................... 75

8.0 REFERENCE LIST ................................................................................................................ 77

9.0 ANNEXES .............................................................................................................................. 80

Annex 9.1 Terms of Reference ................................................................................................. 80

Annex 9.2 Forests within Counties Area .................................................................................. 82

Annex 9.3 Forests within Counties Area under National Parks ............................................... 84

Annex 9.4 Counties Wood Supply Potential ............................................................................ 85

Annex 9.5 National Available Supply ...................................................................................... 87

Annex 9.6 Counties Population ................................................................................................ 88

Annex 9.7 Counties Wood Demand ......................................................................................... 90

Annex 9.8 Counties Suppy and Demand Net Balances ............................................................ 93

Annex 9.9 Counties Wood Supply and Demand Net Balances Summary ............................. 103

Annex 10.1 Institutional Roles and Responsibilities .............................................................. 105

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Forest type areas under different management regimes ................................................ 26

Figure 2: Graphical presentation of national wood supply potential by forest types ................... 35

Figure 3: Wood products demand ................................................................................................. 46

Figure 4: Graphical presentation of available and lost wood volumes after processing .............. 47

Figure 5: Wood supply quantities from different forests .............................................................. 50

Figure 6: Wood demand quantities for various products .............................................................. 52

Figure 7: National net balances from potential supply and current demand ................................ 54

Figure 8: Forecasting of the supply of wood products in Kenya. ................................................. 60

Figure 9: Forecasting of the demand of wood products in Kenya. ............................................... 62

Figure 10: Forecasting of the net balances (supply-demand) of wood products in Kenya........... 63

LIST OF TABLES Table 1: National area for different forest types ........................................................................... 27

Table 2: Average Yields from Cypress plantations ...................................................................... 29

Table 3: Average yields from Pine plantations ............................................................................. 29

Table 4: Average yields from Eucalyptus plantations .................................................................. 29

Table 5: Plantation forests area cover ........................................................................................... 30

Table 6: Weighted yields from operations summed up from three species .................................. 30

Table 7: Yields from private and community eucalyptus plantations .......................................... 31

Table 8: Yields from trees on farms ............................................................................................. 32

Table 9: Summary of yields in m3/ ha for different products by different forests types .............. 32

Table 10: National wood supply potential .................................................................................... 33

Table 11: Summary of the per capita demand of the four wood products .................................... 44

Table 12: The national demand of forest products (m3) ............................................................... 45

Table 13: Recovered wood volumes after processing of end products ........................................ 46

Table 14: Available and lost volumes by products after processing ............................................ 47

Table 15: Summary of Wood supply potential from forested areas and trees on farms ............... 49

Table 16: National wood demand quantities ................................................................................ 51

Table 17: National supply potential and demand net balances ..................................................... 53

Table 18: National optimal supply quantities .............................................................................. 55

Table 19: List of Net wood producing counties............................................................................ 55

Table 20: Net Consuming Counties .............................................................................................. 57

Table 21: Forecasting of the supply of wood products in Kenya ................................................. 59

Table 22: Forecasting of the Demand of Wood Products in Kenya ............................................. 61

Table 23: Projection of the Net Balances (Supply-Demand) of Wood Products in Kenya .......... 62

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost our sincere gratitude to Mr. Alfred Gichu, the National REDD+ Coordination

Officer for his invaluable support and guidance during the implementation of this study, the

Kenya Forest Service Director Mr. D.K Mbugua for guidance and participative engagement and

for allowing access to key KFS staff and information sources.

Sincere appreciation goes to KFS staff from different sections for valuable inputs in form of data

and information. Earnest recognition goes to individuals and institutions that have provided

valuable data and information through participation in expert group meetings, inception and the

validation workshops. We appreciate valuable inputs from forest sector stakeholders who sent

comments and proposals through emails and telephone. Finally, thanks to all who made this

study a success in one way or another including Wanley consulting services team, led by David

Maingi.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background

Deforestation and forest degradation accounts for about 18% of global greenhouse gas (GHG)

emissions. Reducing these emissions has been a global goal through REDD+, a climate change

mitigation strategy that encourages developing countries like Kenya to reduce their rates of

deforestation and forest degradation and to enhance sustainable management and conservation of

existing forests. Kenya has voluntarily opted to embrace this mechanism and is in the process of

formulating Readiness strategies and implementation framework to support its implementation.

In this endeavor, Kenya is receiving support from the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)

and the United Nations Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest

Degradation (UN-REDD). This study seeks to provide critical information on demand and

supply of forest products to support formulation of effective REDD+ strategy options as part of

this strategy development process.

Forest Sector

Forests in Kenya fall in two broad categories; natural and plantation forests. Trees on farms,

though not forests, are also considered in the wood supply analysis, as they currently provide

substantial amount of wood and have shown to be a key source of wood in future. Forests are

further classified into three groups based on their ownership and management characteristics as

public forests, community forests and tree on farmlands.

Public forests are government owned and are managed to provide goods and services like water

from natural forests and commercial and subsistence requirements of wood from the plantations.

Due the increased demand of environmental benefits, management of natural forests on

government lands has been set aside for their production leaving wood production to plantations.

Management of plantations is done through management plans detailing treatments, roles of

different stakeholder and final products.

Community forests are owned and managed by respective communities and county governments.

Forest management is done through use of management plans detailing treatments, roles of

different stakeholder and expected final products. In some cases adherence to the management

plans requirement is severely compromised. If deviation from sustainable management

negatively impact goods and services provision, the government through KFS is mandated to

declare the forest a provision forest and takes over its management until sustainability is

restored.

There exist plantations forests established by private firms and individuals on their lands or

leased land. These plantations are managed to provide wood requirements by the firms and for

commercial purposes. In most cases, these are Eucalyptus forests managed for transmission

poles, fuel wood and in recent past have been utilized for sawn timber. Some firms have made

arrangements with land owners to produced wood for them mainly tobacco and tea companies.

Tea estates requiring large quantities of fuel wood for curing purposes have established tree

plantations whose wood surplus are being sold as poles. Other private firms like Kakuzi and

individual investors in tree plantations grow trees targeting markets offering higher returns like

transmission poles and recently charcoal.

Agro forestry systems are practiced in farms through introduction of trees in an effort by famers

to meet their wood requirements increase farm productivity and raise farm incomes. Adoption of

tree planting by farmers has been well received with planted acreage increasing over the years.

The government through KFS provides extension services to farmers by training them in tree

management, harvesting and marketing.

Wood products from all these forests are harvested and processed into products for the intended

consumers. Regulation of cutting from public forests is governed by KFS while county

governments regulate operations in community forests. Trees on a farm are generally few to

support a marketing process and farmers make own decision on what and when to cut, and who

to sell to. In some cases, control in the management of trees on farms becomes difficult as tree

are owned by farmers whose operations are guided by household needs like wood fuel, finances

and sometimes food production prompting conversion of tree cover to other uses. Private

plantations are managed according to owners’ objectives which are highly commercial driven.

The study

This study aims to collate and analyze data on demand and supply of various forest wood

products and their flows within the country over the next twenty years. In particular, the study

carries out an assessment of the existing and potential demand of wood products (timber, poles,

charcoal and firewood) and supply potential of various forested ecosystems; natural forests,

plantations and trees on farms. The study establishes supply potential of wood products, their

demand, supply and demand balances and forecasting future scenario under various influencing

factors. The study also describes the policy and legal environment within which supply and

demand operates and proposes recommendations for the national REDD+ strategy.

Wood Supply

Kenya forests cover an area of 4,986,676 ha of which natural forests cover an area of 4,754,378

ha while plantations cover an area of 232,298 ha. Public or gazetted natural forests cover an area

of 905,357 ha. Natural forests in community lands cover 3,849,021ha of which 596,099ha were

found to be national parks, hence 3,252,922 ha being the forest area under community

management. Public plantations cover an area of 138,152 ha and community/private plantations

cover an area of 94,146ha.

Public natural forests are principally managed for provision of environmental services though

minimal wood fuel collection by forest adjacent communities is allowed. These forests have a

sustainable yield for wood fuel of 0.9m3 per ha per year. Natural forests within community and

private lands are managed for environmental services as well as for provision of wood products

and have been assessed in past studies (KIFCON 1994) to have an average annual yield

capacity of 1.5m3 per ha

Forest plantations cover an area of 232,298 ha comprising of 138,152ha of public plantation

forests and 94,146 ha of community and private plantation forests. Public plantations forest areas

are managed at average rotation of 28 years with a sustainable yielding capacity of 407.5m3 of

wood per ha per year based on normal forest principle incorporating thinning’s and clear fells.

Plantations in community and private lands are managed for a wide range of products for

household and farm uses. These products are managed for multiple uses and are harvested at

varying ages with an average rotation age of 21 years, (noting that most of them are harvested for

fuel at relatively young ages.) Yield calculations from these forests in 2012 was estimated at

407.35m3

per ha per year.

Farmlands in the country cover an area of 9,939,255 ha and are currently estimated to have an

average wood biomass of 17.58m3 per ha. Trees on farms are managed to meet household needs

and for commercial purposes. Farmers are believed to have relatively short investment time

horizon and end up harvesting their tree at an average age of 8 years. By application of forests

normalization principle where allowable cut is equivalent to trees in the oldest age class out of

the 9,939255 ha of trees about 1,242,406.88ha in the 8 year age class are harvested annually.

Summing up national wood supply potential from the three sources adds up to 31,372,531m3

per

year. Public forests supply 2,825,426m3, community/ private forests 6,705,592m

3, and trees on

farms 21,841,513m3.

Calculation of wood supply quantities from counties was analyzed by overlaying county

boundary maps on the forests area map to show forest areas falling in each county. Using

different yielding capacities for various forest types, supply potential for each county was arrived

at. Wood supply potential from all the 47 counties was calculated with Narok County having the

highest potential of 2,973,398m3 while Mombasa, the second largest urban center, has the lowest

potential of 43,358m3. Nairobi, which is highly urban and a major wood consumption center, has

a low supply potential of 189,525 cu m3.

Wood products under study are timber (sawn wood, pulp, ply and particle boards), poles

(construction and transmission poles) and wood fuel (fire wood and charcoal). Past studies have

shown that different forests have different yielding capacities for these products depending on

the forests management objectives. Public natural forests have capacity to yield 0.9m3 of wood

fuel per ha (KIFCON 1994). Public plantations yields 262.20m3 of timber, 44.50m

3 of poles,

100.80m3 of wood fuel per ha (KFS 2013). Community natural forests yield capacities for

timber, poles and wood fuel have been seen to be 0.4m3, 0.2m

3, and 0.9m

3 respectively per ha.

Yield analysis of plantations in community and private forests show an average yield for timber

at 88.17m3 per ha, poles at 140.66m

3 per ha and wood fuel at 178.52 per ha. Trees on farms yield

timber, poles and wood fuel amounting to 3.52m3, 1.23m

3, 12.83m

3 respectfully. Applying yield

capacities of the different forest types for the three products, national potential supply for timber,

poles, fire wood and charcoal was calculated to be 7,363,414m3, 3,028,907m

3, 13,654,022m

3,

and 7,358,717m3

respectively.

Wood demand

National per capita wood demand is estimated at 1m3 per year. With a population estimate of

41,700,664 in the year 2012, national wood demand was estimated at 41,700,664 m3. Per capita

demand of various wood products was found to be 0.1262m3 for timber, 0.0338m

3 for poles and

0.84m3 for wood fuel (0.4485m

3 for firewood and 0.3915m

3 for charcoal). Based on the national

population for the year 2012, demand quantities for timber, poles, firewood and charcoal are

calculated to be 5,262,624m3, 1,409,482m

3, 18,702,748m

3 and 16,325,810m

3 respectively.

Demand at county level is based on each county’s population and national per capita demand to

arrive at the consumed quantities. Nairobi County has the highest demand at 3,389,582m3 while

Lamu County has lowest demand at 109,667m3.

Supply-Demand Balances

Critical analysis of wood supply and demand quantities indicated a national wood deficit of

10,328,134m3. Factors contributing to this deficit were also analyzed to be relative small forest

area, low average yield, poor processing and utilization methods as result of poor adoption of

effective technologies and practices.Net balances of wood supply and demand were analyzed for

all the 47 counties indicating Samburu County as having the highest surplus of 763,751m3 of

wood, while Nairobi County has the highest deficit of 3,200,057m3 of wood.

Projected Supply and Demand

Forecasting future wood supply and demand within the planning period revealed a gradual

increase in supply and demand towards the year 2032. Supply is set to increase from the current

31,372,531m3 to 35,727,900m

3, with that of timber and poles increasing by 22.1%, firewood by

10.0% and for charcoal by 9.5% by the year 2032. Likewise, demand is estimated to increase to

50,712,100m3, with that of timber increasing by 43.2%, poles by 58.2%, firewood by 16.1% and

charcoal by 17.8% by the year 2032.

Projection of net balances shows an increasing deficit margin for wood into the future, increasing

by 26.5% from 10,328,130 m3 in 2012 to 13,064,250 m

3 in 2032. Surplus for timber is projected

to decrease by 7.4% and for poles by 4.0% in the forecast period. Firewood and charcoal deficit

is projected to increase by 18.3% and 19.1% respectively. Proposed REDD+ intervention

measures in this study aim at enhancing supply and curbing high and rising demand so as to

attain and maintain surpluses in future. These interventions include promoting tree planting

through capacity development and incentives, reduction of wasteful processing and utilization

and streamlining research recommendations and effective monitoring in forestry development.

Policy and legal review

Policies and legal frameworks governing wood production and utilization in Kenya aim at

ensuring sustainability. Their effectiveness have not been realised as there exist an imbalance

where supply is lower than demand. The supply is low because possible optimal targets have not

been reached due to inadequate management practices, low forest areas which are continually

being lost to agriculture, settlements and other developments while demand is high because of

increasing population, excessive dependence on wood and wasteful processing and utilization

technologies.

Analysis of existing policies indicates inadequacy on their part by negatively impacting on the

production goal. Existence of inefficiencies in wood processing and utilization is also a clear

pointer to policy inadequacy. Sustainability in wood production and consumption is dealt with

in the Constitution and supported by policies and legislations, however, mandated institutions

have not effectively implemented them. Failure in implementation can be attributed to

inadequate capacities on the side of these institutions, spill over from other policies negatively

impacting on sustainable forestry and slow policy review processes making them insensitive to

changes in the forest sector.

There is need to review existing policies enabling them to adequately address issues in the forest

sector while strengthening institutions mandated to enforce sustainable management and

conservation of forest resources.

.

Way forward With REDD Current wood supply level needs to be improved raising it higher than demanded quantities

subsequently reducing chances of forest degradation and deforestation. There exists production

or supply enhancing opportunities which if supported by policies can greatly improve supply.

The REDD+ strategy is expected to provide management and policy options geared towards

increasing wood supply in areas such as:-

Policy review and harmonization to correct negative impacts on wood supply capacities.

Land policy review to solve land tenure issues especially in communal lands where

existing systems do not favour long term enterprises like wood production as ownership

of trees may vary over time.

Development and implementation of forest management plans to ensure long term

sustainability.

Capacity building to enhance growing, processing and marketing of wood products

enabling forest institutions implement research findings on appropriate tree species, good

management practices and relevant technologies.

Create incentives in tree planting and management for land owners such as a forestry

fund and tax exemptions for forestry tools to encourage tree growing.

Enhance forest certification and carbon trading to enable wood exports to

environmentally conscious consumers and also attract financial resources.

Demand of wood products is higher than supply creating room for deforestation and forest

degradation calling for the REDD+ strategy to create and operationalize options that will lower

and curb rising wood demand through such avenues as:-

Continued research and capacity development on efficient utilization practices to lower

wastage.

Provision of incentives to encourage adoption of viable alternative energy sources mainly

solar and biogas.

Review regulations on timber and charcoal production with intention of ensuring use of

advanced efficient technologies. This should aim at providing means of acquiring these

technologies which might be expensive for local and small scale timber processors and

charcoal producers.

CHAPTER 1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Forests and Climate Change

Forests play a vital role in combating climate change (Parker C. et al, 2009). Trees take up

carbon dioxide from the atmosphere converting it into wood thereby fixing carbon. In vice versa

deforestation and forest degradation releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere commonly

referred as carbon emissions. In this regard, reducing deforestation and forest degradation

becomes critical to the global climate change reduction efforts. Global deforestation and forest

degradation make forest sector the second largest contributor to global warming, contributing

about 17% of GHG emissions into the atmosphere (Parker C. et al, 2009). Sustainable forest

management practices and enhancement of forest carbon stocks are key intervention measures

being developed to reverse this scenario. Deliberate strategies to reduce the current level of

deforestation and forest degradation, maintain the existing forests and where possible increase

the areas under forest cover are being developed in developing tropical countries as part of

REDD+ Readiness. Kenya is a low forest cover country, with a present cover of only 6.9%. In spite of this low

cover, the country relies heavily on its forest resources to steer economic growth through the

provision of the much needed forest goods and services. Over 80% of Kenyans depend on forests

for provision of domestic energy needs in terms of either charcoal or firewood (Githiomi J.K and

Oduor N. 2012). Kenya is also an agricultural based economy and forests are recognized as

important in supporting a vibrant agricultural sector by protecting water sources and increasing

farm productivity and incomes. Forests are equally important in supporting the energy and

construction sector.

1.2 RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY

REDD+ as a climate change mitigation process seeks to reduce emissions arising from

deforestation and forest degradation of the existing forests and while exploiting available

opportunities for improving management of forest resources and, enhancement of carbon stocks

through reforestation and afforestation programs. REDD+ has not gone into implementation but

developing tropical countries are currently engaged in Readiness Activities. Readiness activities

involve designing, development and application of strategies and programs to reduce emissions

and enhance carbon sink capacities of forest ecosystems.

Kenya has embarked on a REDD+ readiness process. As part of this, a broad national strategy

and implementation framework will be put in place to facilitate access to international finance to

reduce carbon emission and to enhance emission removal potential of forests. In order to support

key components of the REDD+ Strategy additional information is required to support

formulation of strategy options. Currently, information on demand and supply of wood products

is lacking.

Wood biomass is important to estimate emission factor and removal enhancement of carbon for

REDD+ mechanisms. Human interventions that influence wood biomass stocks affect the carbon

stocks associated with wood biomass in the forests.

The study proposed here is intended to carry out a critical examination of demand-supply

scenario of forest products in general, in particular wood products. This study is important

because its findings will be used as an input in constructing national reference emission level and

monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) system for Kenya.

1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The broad objective of this study was to carry out an assessment of the existing and potential

demand of wood products (timber, poles, charcoal, and firewood) and supply potential of various

forested ecosystems, both public and private. Specifically this study sought to, among others:-

establish the current and future demand of products (timber, poles and wood fuel);

establish the current and projected future supply potential of different forest management

develop scenario of future demand and supply of wood products under changing social

political and economic environment – including but not limited to price, food security,

economic growth, internal migration and infrastructure development,

Suggest the way forward for the national REDD+ strategy

1.4 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

The major limitation of the study was unavailability of recent data in some areas. Under such

circumstances study results from some relatively older sources were used while in other cases

expert group estimates were used.

CHAPTER 2.0 METHODOLOGY

2.1 STUDY APPROACH

2.1.1 Supply potential

Supply potential of wood products is the amount of wood that a country has the capacity to

sustainably produce expressed in cubic meters per annum. Different forests are able to supply

different amount of wood depending on species, management objective and the ecological zone

of the forest among many other factors.

Forests types

Forests in Kenya can be either categorized into either natural or plantation forests and are

managed under three different land tenure systems; public, community and private forests. Trees

on farms are also considered as a wood resource base from where significant quantities are

harvested and hence computed among the rest of forest types. These sources have unique

ownership and subsequently varying management objectives. It is from these forests that supply

potential of wood products for the purpose of this study is analyzed. In addition, wood imports

are also factored in as supply quantities

Products

Forests produce a variety of goods and services but this study is restricted to timber, poles and

fuel wood (fire wood and charcoal). Timber includes round woods or logs going for saw wood,

pulp wood and ply logs. Poles include wood used for construction, transmission and building

while fuel wood refers to both fire wood and charcoal.

Supply potential analysis

Analyses of supply potential of wood in this study adopted the basic principle that is:

SP = A × Y

Where:

SP = supply potential from a given forest or tree cover

A = area in hectares

Y = Yield per unit area over a given period of time

To analyze potential supply of wood products (timber, poles, and fuel wood), data and

information of the resource base was gathered from literature providing information on different

forest areas in relation to forest cover, yields and management objectives. Data from KFS was

used providing data on forest areas covered by identifiable forest types. KFS has generated forest

cover maps from satellite images and on superimposing layers of administrative county

boundaries, different forests type’s areas within counties were also analyzed.

2.1.2 Wood Demand

Demand of wood is the quantity a given population consumes at a given period of time. It is

dependent on population, economic factors like price, products availability and consumer

preferences. Forests produce a wide range of products but for the purpose of this study demand

for timber, poles and wood fuel was considered.

To study demand of wood products within a given area or country two methods are commonly

used. These methods are:-

products based consumption within an area over a time period

Sampling methods to determine average per capita consumption

a) Products based studies on consumption

Products based studies of demand involves collection of all product consumption quantities

within an area over a given period of time. The method attempts to sum up all quantities of

products consumed. The method is suited for relatively small areas involving one or very few

products and gives accurate data if consumption data is available or can be captured. High costs

involved hinder the method application at national level.

b) Per capita based method

Per capita based study establishes the average rate of use per person per year through sampling.

With a large representative sample, purposed for specific wood products, this method is reliable

for regional and national consumption studies. A number of studies based on demand per capita

undertaken for specific wood products were considered and deliberations were made on adoption

of their results. Adoption of individual product per capita study results depended on area

covered, study approach and sample size.

Demand study and analysis relied heavily on data collected from various sources on population

and internal migration, and quantities of wood products consumed. Data was mainly from KNBS

publications such as Kenya National Integrated Households Budget Survey, Kenya National

Census Report, Economic Survey and Statistical Abstract. Per capita consumption of different

wood products has been studied by FAO-WISDOM studies, Regional Timber Trade studies,

Kenya Forest Master Plan and Kenya Indigenous Forests and Conservation project (KIFCON).

The KFS inventory and marketing sections provided demand on wood based on quantities

harvested from different forest types, exports and imports.2.1.3 Critical analysis

Critical analysis is the assessment of supply and demand quantities of wood and their spatial and

temporal interplay in the market. The analysis provides information on wood deficit and surplus

conditions, their magnitudes and projected future scenarios. The results provide important

information for policy design and forest resources management planning.

Determination of current wood demand and supply

At the national level, current demand and supply quantities are calculated using 2012 as the base

year. Analysis of wood supply potential from forested areas is based on their yield capacities

while demand is based on Kenya’s population and the average wood consumption (per capita)

per person per year.

Net wood demand and supply balances

Net balance is the difference between the supply potential and demand quantities for a given

product within a given period. Analysis on wood products net balances in this study has been

done both at national and county levels. Net balances at national level were arrived at by

subtracting analyzed demand quantities from supply potentials and were done for all wood

products combined and for the specific wood products separately.

Similarly net balances at county level were arrived at by subtracting demand quantities from

supply potential for each county. In the same analysis, demand quantities for each product were

subtracted from the supply potential giving the status of each product at each county.

Forecasting of wood supply and demand

Forecasting supply is the process of estimating the quantity of wood that producers will supply at

a future date while forecasting demand is estimating the quantity of wood consumers are

anticipated to consume at a future period. Demand and supply forecasting is done using an

econometric technique that models relationships between causal or influencing factors. For

supply the influencing factors include the forest area, policy environment and yields while

factors influencing future demand include population growth, economic growth, technology

change and yield capacities.Assumptions about future changes in these variables are then used to

make projections of future supply and demand.

Reliable and timely forecasts are an important aid to weighing options in the development of the

national REDD+ strategy. A number of forecasting methods were considered for this study

which included random walk (Xt=Xt-1+et) moving average method and Global Forest Product

Model (GFPM) among others. This study however adopted the Global Forest Product Model

(GFPM) to forecast demand and supply of wood products because of its wide use.

GFPM is an economic model of global production, consumption and trade of forest products

developed as part of FAO’s on-going work on forestry sector outlook studies. GFPM model was

adopted for this study since it uses historical data collected and interpreted by FAO since 1994.

Furthermore, FAO continues to explore ways in which the quality of future supply and demand

projections can be improved through improvements in the collection of forests products statistics

and the models used to make such projections. It has been calibrated to produce forecasts of

forest resources and markets for about 180 countries including Kenya and 14 forest product

categories (commodity), timber, poles, firewood and charcoal included. It uses data submitted

from constituent countries to FAO since 1994 and is continuously being updated to increase the

accuracies of its estimates.

Year 2012 was used as the base year and magnitudes of change for each aspect considered is

projected to the year 2032. For purpose of inputs into the model quantitative parameters of

factors affecting supply and demand were collected. Supply determining factors were found to be

forest area changes, yields capacities and policies while those affecting demand included

population growth and internal migration, economic growth, policies, price of other alternative

products to wood, infrastructure and technology changes.

2.1.3 Policy and legal environment review

Policy and legal review involved an analysis of the policy and legal framework within the

country as well as institutions mandated with their implementation. Some of policies and legal

instruments considered are the Constitution, Vision 2030, land policy and land act 2012, energy

policy, draft forests bill 2013, charcoal rules 2009, timber harvesting regulations 2009, farm

forestry rules 2009 among others. This review was focused on understanding how wood supply

is delivered under the existing policy environment in order to determine whether the supply is

operating at the optimal level and if not identify reasons why optimal levels are not achieved.

The review also seeks to identify policies negatively impacting on supply and demand of wood,

policy hindrances, legislative bottlenecks and institutional weaknesses

Supply and demand analysis provided the magnitude of deviation from the expected state for

defining intervention in policy. Analysis on optimal production levels from our forests provided

information on possibilities of increasing supply. Analysis of deviation of available quantities

from expected supply potential will inform policy review on the possibility of improving

efficiency in production, processing and by reduction of waste which are the best avenues of

improving demand.

2.2 STUDY METHODS

This study on demand and supply of wood products in Kenya is broad and complex. In view of

the complexity of the study, products involved and time allocated, the study approaches adopted

had to be simple and articulate.

2.2.1 Literature review

Most of the study findings relied on the available literature to provide background information

relating to forest wood products as well as factors influencing demand and supply. Literature

review provided important information on forest areas and types, their areas and changes over

time, population numbers and growth, internal migrations, economic growth, imports and

exports, existing policy and legal environment, institutional status in terms of performance,

capacity, collaborations and reforms among others. Sources comprise a long list of published

documents by either the government, its agencies, NGOs, learning and research institutions

among others.

2.2.2 Stakeholders consultations

Workshops

Workshops brought together experts enabling deliberations on specific issues, provide

information and possible sources of reliable data and information. Two workshops were

conducted, the first being at the inception of the study and the other at its culmination. The first

workshop meant to review planned activities and approaches to be adopted for the study while

the second workshop purposed to critique the draft report, where additional inputs were

incorporated. The participants were key stakeholders, experts and decision makers in the forest

sector.

Key informant interview

Supply information

Consultations targeting supply information were held with KFS divisions mandated with

forest management planning, plantation development, natural forest conservation and

management, extension and dry lands services, private forest owners, community forest

managers, and NACOFA representatives.

Demand information

Consultations to gather information on demand were held with specific stakeholders

dealing with specific wood products. Stakeholders included KFS marketing section,

Ministry of trade for export data and saw millers associations. Poles demand data was

sourced from KPLC and Kenya Bureau of Statistics. Fire wood and charcoal stakeholders

included research scientists from energy ministry, KEFRI and KFS extension and dry

lands section officers.

Focus Group Discussions

Team of experts in various fields, relevant to this study, were brought together to discuss and

critique the study approaches and results. About four such meetings in areas of wood supply,

demand, policy and production chains were held and outputs used to shape the final results.

2.2.3 Visits

Visits were made to offices, sites and areas where required data could be availed. Areas visited

include two forest stations, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), KFS and sawmills.

Discussions held during these visits provided valuable inputs into the study.

2.2.4 Data analysis

Each team member, after the collection of data, collated, analyzed and presented the findings as

required by the terms of reference. The components included, for ease of analysis, were supply

component, demand component, forecasting component and policy review component.

Appropriate analytical tools expected for use include guided questionnaires, trees growth

models, demand projection formula and specific policy analysis criteria.

CHAPTER 3.0: WOOD PRODUCTS SUPPLY

3.1 FOREST RESOURCE BASE

Kenya’s forest resource base occupies an area of 4.39 million ha (KFS). These forests fall into

two categories; public and community/private forests. In addition Kenya has an aggressive farm

forestry programme that is credited with a high proportion of trees on farmlands and within this

study supply from these trees resources is considered within the supply analysis.

3.1.1 Public forests

Public forests are managed by the government for provision of forests goods and services. These

forests cover an area of 1,043,509 ha; plantations covering 138,152 ha and natural forests

occupying an area of 905,357 ha. Public plantation forests are managed for the supply of

industrial wood requirement, construction and other timber requirements, and for wood fuel.

Public natural forests are explicitly managed for provision of environmental services such as

biodiversity, water catchment protection, climate amelioration etc. No commercial extraction of

wood products is carried out except collection of fire wood from wind falls and other dead trees

by forest adjacent communities.

3.1.2 Forests in community and private lands

Forests in community and private lands cover an area of 3,347,069 ha. These forests comprise

both natural forests (3,252,922 ha) and plantations forests (94, 146 ha). These forests are

managed by respective communities and private land owners according to their respective

management objectives which are mainly provision of both goods and services. Community

forests are important sources of building poles and wood fuel in the country. Private plantations

and wood lots are owned by private individuals or firms investing in wood production for

commercial purposes mainly for poles and wood fuel.

3.1.3 Trees on farms

Private farmlands have incorporated tree growing with other crops with the aim of increasing

farm incomes, increasing agricultural productivity and providing wood requirements at the farm

level. Tree growing on farms have been acknowledged, by different stakeholders and studies, as

a fundamental source of wood in the country (Kenya Forest Master Plan 1994). In this regard,

the government has encouraged farmers to maintain a minimum 10% of their farms under trees

as required by the constitution. This has achieved an increase in trees cover at a rate of 10,000 ha

per year equivalent. In Kenya, arable lands with a potential to support tree growing occupy an

area of 9,939,255 ha within agro ecological zone 1,2,3,4. (KFS, 2013)

Figure 1: Forest type areas under different management regimes

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

Natural Plantation Natural Plantations

PUBLIC COMMUNITY

Are

a H

a

Forest type

Forest areas

3.2. FACTORS AFFECTING SUPPLY QUANTITIES OF WOOD

3.2.1 Area of productive forests

Area covered by forests is an important factor in wood supply quantities where the larger the

area the more wood is produced.

3.2.2 Yielding capacities

This is the capacity of a given forest has to produce wood. This is dependent on many factors

like tree species, climatic conditions, forest site, level of forest degradation, deforestation and

management practices adopted.

3.2.3 Policies and legal frameworks

Policy environment determine environment in which wood production takes place sometimes

providing incentives in wood production and in some cases negatively impact on production.

3.3 POTENTIAL SUPPLY ANALYSIS

Potential supply of wood is dependent forest area and the forest yielding capacity. In this study

Forest areas are analyzed at two levels, national and regional or county level largely supported

by data availability and administrative units. In the new system of governance, Kenya is

administered at national and county level where all data sets are prepared to ease planning and

administration at these two levels. While forestry is favoured by eco region based analysis,

results and recommendations might not anchor well in a country where administration is county

based. To enable development of an effective REDD strategy into which results from this study

will inform, national and county based analysis have been adopted.

3.3.1 Forest areas

Forest areas used in this study both at national and county level are as analyzed by KFS.

National forest areas

The areas covered by different forest types have been established by the most recent study as

detailed below.

Table 1: National area for different forest types

Gazzeted forests Community forests Agro forests

Forest Type Natural Plantations Natural Plantations Trees on farms

Area (Ha) 905,357 138,152 3,252,922 94,146 9,939,255

Source: KFS, 2013

Plantations in government lands were established to provide industrial wood requirements from

quick growing trees reducing pressure on natural forests. With increasing demand for

environmental services conversion of government forests to plantations is being discouraged

with planting concentrated in harvested and un-stocked areas. Within community and private

lands tree planting has been well adopted. In 1990, area under plantations forests in community

and private forest was less than 20,000 ha while plantation forests in public forests were 180,000

ha (FD Economics section reports 1990). Analysis of current plantation areas show public forest

plantations to be 98,578 ha stocked and 39,574ha un-stocked area while plantations in

community and private being 94,146ha indicating a significant shift in plantation establishment

from public forests to community, private and farm lands for provision of wood.

Forests within counties

Forests within counties were determined by superimposing the national forest cover map with the

county boundary map layer. Just like the national supply computation, county supply is

considered by factoring the size of each forest type in either of the counties. Analysis of forest

products supplied from farmlands within each county was also done and results were as shown in

Annex 9.2

3.3.2 Management of forests and yields

Forests are managed to provide goods and services. Quantity and quality of wood coming from

harvesting trees is dependent on the mode and aim of management. Quantity is expressed in

terms of yields from a given area while quality is the suitability of wood produced to meet the

desired use. Yield is the quantity of wood that can be sustainably removed from a given forest

over a period of time without affecting the production capacity of the growing stock in future

periods. Yields are expressed in m3 per ha per year and vary from one forest type to the other

depending on species composition, stocking and management objective. In Kenya, yield studies

have been carried out by the government, research institutions, NGOs and private organization.

Yields on wood fuel have been done by a number of organizations on very small areas of study

and were considered in this study.

Public forests

Public forests are owned and managed by the government through KFS. There are two types of

forests under this category; natural and plantation forests. The constitution and the Forest Act

2005 are supportive of community participation in management of public forests. Management

of these forests is done through management plans prepared to enable realization of intended

products at optimal and sustainable levels. In areas where community and private investors have

leased part of the forest, management guidelines are provided to ensure that good practices are

adhered to. Harvesting plans are prepared and implemented centrally by KFS through licensing

of capable individuals and firms to carry out prescribed operations like thinning and harvesting.

Public natural forests

These are natural forest ecosystems with no or minimal human interference in their

establishment and comprise of indigenous tree species. These forests are managed for provision

of environmental services with no commercial extraction of wood products. However, forest

neighboring communities collect wood fuel from dead trees for their house hold use. Yield

studies from these forests were carried out by KIFCON in 1993 and Kenya Forest Master Plan

in1994 through national wide studies. Both KIFCON and the Master Plan arrived at potential

wood fuel yields of 0.9m3 per hectare (KFMP 1994) which was adopted for this study as no other

nationwide study has been undertaken in recent times.

Public plantation forests

Plantation forests have been established in Kenya by replacing natural forests with quick

growing exotic trees for provision of both industrial and household wood needs and thereby

reducing pressure on the slow growing natural forests. Yield studies in form of growth models

for plantation tree species have carried for use in guiding their establishment and in prescribing

appropriate silvicultural treatments. The growth models of the main plantation species, that is,

cypress, pine and eucalyptus exist and are used in yield estimation both for thinning ratios

determination and stumpage sale volume calculation. In this study data used for analysis of

plantation yields were based on the volumes assessed by the KFS inventory section using these

models in three years (2010, 2011 and 2012).

Yield data from plantations is from the following operations undertaken in the plantations:-

1. Thinning

This is an operation carried out to reduce tree stocking to give room for better growth on

the remaining trees by removing poorly formed and weak trees. Volumes realized from

thinning were estimated based on the Cypress and Pine empirical growth model data and

similarly that of Eucalyptus thinning or reducing of coppices operations. For the three

species averaging of trees ages at which operations are taking place had to be done as

treatments or operations are not being done at the prescribed years.

2. Clear fell or harvesting is supposed to be at age 30 but takes place at ages between 27 to

35 years in public forests and for the purpose of this study a rotation period of 28 years

was adopted based on the average cutting age in year 2012 (KFS 2012).

Products realized from Pine and Cypress plantations include timber (round wood logs), poles,

and fuel wood from the small diameter logs, broken, deformed logs and branches. For

Eucalyptus, timber logs are assessed from large trees above poles diameters (34cm). Trees or

logs with diameters between 12 cm and 35 cm are sold as transmission and construction poles

while low diameters and branches are sold as fuel wood.

Table 2: Average Yields from Cypress plantations

Cypress Units in m3

Operation Average Age Products

Timber Poles Fuel wood

1st thinning 7 3 14

2nd Thinning 12 9 16 18

3rd Thinning 22 41 5 10

4th Thinning

Clear fell 30 254 3 12

Table 3: Average yields from Pine plantations

Table 4: Average yields from Eucalyptus plantations

Eucalyptus Units in m3

Operation Average Age Products

Timber Poles Fuel wood

1st Coppice reduction 7 4 12

2nd Coppice reduction 12 10 24

3rd coppice 22 6 28 60

4th Thinning

Clear fell 30 24 90 245

Source: KFS Forest Inventory section and Wanley economic database

Yield analysis from public forest plantations was done by weighting areas covered by the tree

species in 2010 as reported by KFS Inventory section which was 53,266 ha for cypress, 21,585

ha for Pine and 13,932 ha for Eucalyptus which gave weighting factors of 0.6 for cypress, 0.243

Pine Units in m3

Operation Average Age Products

Timber Poles Fuel wood

1st thinning 7 2 12

2nd Thinning 12 23 14 16

3rd Thinning 22 43 10 17

4th Thinning

Clear fell 30 243 5 16

for pine, and 0.157. Area covered by other species was not used in weighting as they were seen

to introduce a bias in the final calculation. Table 5 below shows areas of the three tree species

and their calculated weighting factors.

Table 5: Plantation forests area cover

Species / Cover Area ha % or Weight

Cypress 53,266 0.6

Pine 21,585 0.243

Eucalyptus 13,932 0.157

SUB TOTAL 88,783 1

Others spp 8480.34

Un stocked 39573.97

TOTAL PLANTATION AREA 138,152

Source: KFS Forest Inventory section

Calculation of yields was done by summation of yields from all operations and weighted as per

the species area. By use of an excel spreadsheet each species weighted volume yield for all

operation could be done on a single entry as shown in Table 6 below. E.g. Volume of wood

harvested at the end of the rotation period was summed for the three species to give 281.9 m3

which included volumes from 1st, 2

nd and 3

rd thinning operations. The Table show volume yields

from public plantations to be 407.4 m3 per ha, yield from 1

st thinning being 16.1 m

3 per ha, 2

nd

operation 44.0 m3 per ha and 3

rd operation 65.4 m

3 per ha.

Table 6: Weighted yields from operations summed up from three species

Community / private forests

Community and private forests were considered to be all forests outside public forests. They fall

on community and private lands and are managed for varying end products. Within community

lands tree ownership is common with every individual having right to use the tree resource to

meet personal household wood requirements including income generation. Investing in

management and protection is minimal as no one has the responsibility resulting to lack of

effective control measures or management guidelines.

Where management committees have been formed, their main responsibility is protecting forests

from non-community members’ interference in their utilization.

Operation age Timber Poles Fuel wood TOTAL

1st operation 7 0 3 13 16.1

2nd Operation 12 11 15 18 44.0

3rd Operation 22 36 10 20 65.4

Clear fell 30 215 17 50 281.9

TOTAL 262.2 44.5 100.8 407.4

Natural community forests

Natural forests, within community areas unlike public forests are managed to meet community

wood requirement both at subsistence and commercial level.

Studies on yields were initially carried out by KIFCON and later through the Kenya Forest

Master Plan indicating that yields for three wood products was 0.4m3 per ha for timber, 0.2m

3

per ha for poles and 0.9m3 for wood fuel giving a total sustainable yields for wood of 1.5m

3 per

hectare of natural forests in community forests (KFMP 1994) . No recent yield studies at the

national scale have been carried out and therefore the KFMP results were adopted.

Private plantations (in community or private lands)

Private plantations in community and private lands are owned and managed differently from

public plantations to meet owners’ wood requirements and for sale to raise incomes. To calculate

average yields from these forests, calculations were based on a) yields recorded from past studies

b) private plantations yield records and c) discussions and data presented by members of the

Extension and Dry land Forests Division of KFS. The following data and information were

collected:-

a) Community and private forest rotation age is between 18 and 25 years (21 was taken

as average)

b) Species composition is Cypress 18%, Pine 5% and Eucalyptus 75% with most of

plantations being grown for poles and fuel wood. Other species are grown but their

area (although not available) was believed to be relatively small.

c) Yield averages from cypress and pine plantations were discussed and agreed to be

similar to those of public forests as most of them are on lands bordering government

forests.

d) Eucalyptus was seen to be harvested for fuel wood, building and transmission

calculated to be at an average age of 21 years with thinning done once between ages 8

and 10 years to provide building poles and fuel wood. Yields at Clear fell were

analyzed or observed to be higher than those of public forests with some yielding as

high as 560 m3 per ha in private forests and 250 m

3 per ha in small wood lots.

Table 7: Yields from private and community eucalyptus plantations

From the analysis, one hectare of Eucalyptus plantation yields an average 424 m3 of wood with

61m3 coming from thinning or reduction of coppice and 364 m

3 from clear-fells.

Trees on farms

Trees planted on farms supplement farmers’ incomes and provide wood for household energy

and other wood requirements. The rotation age for trees on farm was estimated to be 8 years as

Operation Age Products Units in m3 TOTAL

Timber Poles Fuel wood

Thinning / coppice reduction 10 25 36 61

Clear fell 25 24 154 186 364

TOTAL 24 179 221 424

most of the trees are planted for household energy where cutting start as early as year 3 from

planting. Studies on farm trees yields have been carried out in relatively small scale to be used

for national analysis leaving results by KFMP 1994 to be used for the analysis. According to

master plan, farm trees had a biomass of about 9.3m3 of wood in a hectare and was seen to grow

at a rate of 0.5m3 per ha per year. Growing this yield to the year 2012 resulted to a biomass of

about 17.58m3 per ha in farmlands which are occupying an area of 9,939,255 ha. Farm trees are

harvested at average of 8 years resulting to an annual harvesting area of 1.242,406 ha (equivalent

to the area of the oldest age class). Further analysis on this harvested volume could have been

done by application of an allometric formula to get a more precise wood volume. There existing

no allometric equation that can be used, however, Kenya, through an ongoing project “Improving

forest resources assessment in Kenya” by KFS and KEFRI will soon develop such an equation.

Product yield ratio realized through the master plan studies were adopted as yield ratios for

different wood products that is 3.52m3 for timber, 1.23m

3 for poles and 12.83m

3 for wood fuel.

Wood fuel yield of 12.83m3 was also distributed at 8.34m

3 for fire wood and 4.49m

3 for

charcoal.

Table 8: Yields from trees on farms

Products

Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL

Fire wood Charcoal

Yield m3 per ha per year 3.52 1.23 8.34 4.49 17.58

Table 9 below is a summary of yields from different forests and that of different forest products

produced from them.

Table 9: Summary of yields in m3/ ha for different products by different forests types

Forest types

Wood Products

Rotation

period

Timber Poles Fuel wood TOTAL

Natural forests (Public

and Community)

- 0.4 0.2 0.9 1.5

Public plantation

forests

28 years 262.20 44.50 100.80 407.5

Community/Private

plantations

21 years 88.17 140.66 178.52 407.35

Trees on farm 8 years 3.52 1.23 12.83 17.58

3.4 COMPUTING SUPPLY

Supply potential of wood products from forests and farms is expressed in volume per given area

over a time period and is done by application of the simple principle of multiplying area of the

forest by its yield in a given period of time.

SP = A×Y

Where:

SP = supply potential from a given forest

A = area in hectares

Y = wood yields per unit area

Analysis of wood supply potential of the area covered by each forests type and the potential yield

of wood from each forest type was done.

3.4.1National wood supply potential

Public forests

Public plantation forests on the other hand cover an area of 138,152 ha. Applying the principle of

a normal forest, annual allowable cut area is equivalent to the fraction of rotation age to the total

forest area. Average cut age for public plantation forest is 28 years and therefore, the annual

allowable cut (138,152/28) is 4,934 ha. Natural public forests occupy an area of 905,357 ha with

sustainable supply potential of 0.9m3 per ha of fuel wood.

Community/private forests

Natural forests within community lands cover an area of 3,252,922 ha and are managed to supply

the four products at an average yield of 1.5m3 of wood per ha per year. Similarly, plantations

within community and private lands cover an area of 94,146 ha, as done to the public plantations,

their annual allowable cut area is equivalent to that of the total area divided by the rotation age

(94,146/21) which is 4,483.14ha.

Trees on farms

Trees on farms are managed for wood fuel and domestic construction materials mainly for

building and fencing and if possible raising farm incomes. Area of farmlands with tree growing

potential is 9,939,255 ha with a biomass calculated to be an average of 17.5m3 per ha. Trees on

farms are harvested at average of 8 years and by application of normal forest principle where

annual allowable cut area is equivalent to the area oldest age class then harvesting area from

farms is 1.242,406 ha and with average biomass of 17.5m3 per ha gives an annual potential

yield of 21,742,120 m3.

Supply potential for different products from these forests is based on products yields as indicated

in table 10. Having established the areas covered by forest types and the yields expected from

each forest type, computation of potential yield is shown below.

Table 10: National wood supply potential

National Wood Supply Potential

Forest Type All

Products

Wood Products

Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL

Firewood Charcoal Total

Public Forests

Natural F. Area (Ha) 905,357

Yields (M3/ha) 0.9 0.585 0.315 0.9

Public natural Forests

Supply Potential 814,821 0 0 529,634 285,187 814,821 814,821

Plantation F. Area (Ha) 4,934.00

Yields (M3/ha) 407.5 262.2 44.5 65.52 35.28 100.8

Public Plantation

Forests Supply Potential 2,010,605 1,293,695 219,563 323,276 174,071 497,347 2,010,605

Sub-total Public Forests 2,825,426 1,293,695 219,563 852,909 459,259 1,312,168 2,825,426

Community and Private

Forests

Natural F. Area (Ha) 3,252,922

Yields (M3/ha) 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.59 0.32 0.9

Natural Forests Supply

Potential 4,879,383 1,301,169 650,584 1,919,224 1,040,935 2,927,630 4,879,383

Plantation Area (Ha) 4,483.14

Yields (M3/ha) 407.35 88.17 140.66 116.04 62.48 178.52

Plantation Forests

Supply Potential 1,826,208 395,279 630,599 520,215 280,116 800,331 1,826,208

Sub-total

Community/Private

Forests

6,705,592 1,696,448 1,281,183 2,439,439 1,321,051 3,727,961 6,705,592

Trees on Farms

Allowable Agro Forests

Area (Ha) 1,242,406

Yields (M3/ha) 17.58 3.52 1.23 8.34 4.49 12.83

Farm trees Supply

Potential 21,841,513 4,373,272 1,528,160 10,361,673 5,578,407 15,940,080 21,841,513

National Supply

Potential 31,372,531 7,363,414 3,028,907 13,654,022 7,358,717 20,980,209 31,372,531

% CONTRIBUTION BY PRODUCT 23 10 44 23 67 100

*Forest areas divided by rotation period to present harvestable area per year sustainably.

National wood supply potential from all forest types is shown to be 31,372,531 m3 with public

forests having a potential to supply 2,825,426m3, forest in community and private lands

6,705,591m3 and trees on farms 21,841 513m

3. National supply potential for timber, poles, fire

wood and charcoal is 7,363,414m3, 3,028,907m

3, 13,654,022m

3, and 7,358,717m

3 respectively.

Figure 2: Graphical presentation of national wood supply potential by forest types

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

Timber Poles Fire wood Charcoal

Wood supply potential by products

3.4.2 Wood supply potential by Counties

Wood supply potential by counties was calculated for the same way as the national calculation

using forest area and the yield per ha. The results are shown in Annex 9.4

3.4.3 Imports

Importation of wood products is done to meet shortfalls and bring in wood products which are

not readily available locally. In 2012, Kenya imported 93,999m3 of sawn timber from East and

Central Africa countries, 32,520m3

of poles from South Africa, Tanzania and Uganda (KFS

Annual Report). Volume of plywood imported was 3,847m3, paper and paper products about

217,000m3(Statistical abstract, 2012). A total of 347,366m

3 in volume of wood products was

imported.

3. 5 OTHER SOURCES OF WOOD

3.5.1 Wood from bush lands and wooded grasslands.

Big areas of Kenya’s Arid and Semi-arid Lands are covered by bush lands and scattered trees

which cannot be classified as forests. In these areas ownership of trees is common with every

individual having right to use the tree resource to meet household wood requirements. Lack of

management plans and the right for every individual to cut trees for house hold use in these areas

result to unsustainable production of charcoal. Land tenure systems in these areas give harvesting

rights to individual with no management or conservation responsibilities which is an issue the

REDD+ strategy will need to address. The Master Plan studies showed that wood supply from

ASALs had reached a deficit level by 1994 and conservation was seen as the best management

option. Even though further harvesting from these areas is depletion, supply of wood products,

mainly charcoal continues to be sourced from these areas. This should be addressed through

application of appropriate management requirements backed with strict adherence to sustainable

quantities.

3.5.2 Illegal trade

Harvesting of indigenous hard woods from public forests is banned and the small quantities from

community forests and farmland cannot meet their high demand. This has resulted to illegal

importation by traders to take advantage of the high returns. Quantity of wood that is illegally

imported into the country is not established. However, a study on timber movement across three

Kenya-Tanzania boarder points in 2012, records that undervaluing of wood on transit is a norm

mainly to evade taxes and other legal requirements.

3.5.3 Farm residue and wood waste

Farm residue is used to supplement scarce wood energy required for domestic needs. In year

2000, sources of biomass residue in Kenya included; maize 1.6 million tons/yr., Sorghum 76,000

tons/yr., wheat 42,000 tons/yr., millet 46,000 tons/yr., beans 77,000 tons/yr., rice 1,000 tons/yr.,

cassava 12,000 tons/yr., coconut 6 tons/yr., cashew nut 2tons/yr., coffee 300,000 tons/yr., tea

60,000 tons/yr. and sisal 8,000 tons/yr. (Biomass Energy Resources in Kenya, 2012)

Wood waste is mainly used in urban areas by 3.7% of households as compared to 2.1% in the

rural areas. The consumption is about 15,600 tons equivalent to 23,088m3

(1.48m3/ton),

estimated from industrial by-product production (sawdust, timber rejects, off-cuts etc.) (Gender,

Improved Cook Stoves and Development in Kenya, 2010)

CHAPTER 4.0 WOOD DEMAND Demand is taken to be the quantity of wood required by a given population over a period of time

to meet their needs. For the purpose of this study, national demand of wood products is the

quantity of wood products (timber, poles and wood fuel) required to meet the needs of the

41million people in Kenya. Demand studies and analysis involve determination of aggregation of

individual, house hold and institutional needs. Accurate wood products demand analysis will

feed into the REDD+ strategy options formulation in production and utilization that support

sustainable management and conservation of country’s forest resources.

4.1 GENERAL OVERVIEW OF WOOD PRODUCTS DEMAND

Demand for wood products by consumers triggers need and quantity of round wood extracted

from forests and other trees establishments. Each wood product has unique production,

processing, marketing and utilization chain characteristics from the other product. It is this

uniqueness that brings in variation in quantity demanded for each product. For purposes of this

study, timber incorporates industrial wood which include sawn logs, veneer logs and pulp wood.

Poles include transmission and construction poles including fencing posts while wood fuel

include fire wood and charcoal.

Timber

Timber is produced from public plantations, community and private forests, and from farms.

Sourcing timber from government plantations requires the processor to be a licensee allowed to

operate on a given plantation based on firm’s capacity to harvest the wood efficiently. Public

forests have been the major supplier of timber to processing firms in Kenya until 1999

presidential moratorium of harvesting of wood from public forests. This resulted to shortage of

timber in the market prompting the then county council and private forest owners invest in

commercial wood production and managed to supply the market for the period the ban was in

effect. During the period there was proliferation of small scale wood processors who were less

skilled and used inefficient technologies and practices in timber processing. Currently public

forests have the potential to supply 17.6% of wood for timber. Forest in county lands managed

by county government and private owners has the potential to produce 23% of the timber which

is processed by operators appointed by forest management committees, and private forest owners

to convert trees into sawn timber. Farm trees have a potential to supply 59.4% of timber where

wood is processed by individuals providing the services to farmers using mobile saw benches

and sometimes power saws which are found to be cheaper and available even though they are

very costly with very low recoveries subsequently low returns to the wood owner.

Marketing and distribution of timber from the processing centers is done by the (licensees)

processors themselves in public and sometimes in community forests or sold to timber merchants

who transport the timber to the markets in community, private forests and farm trees. In most

cases, timber from farms is sold to the local people as the quantities are small to be transported to

long distances.

Markets for timber produced from public forests and sometimes community forests are not

confined to the local county or administrative boundaries but dependent on high returning market

centers as the distributers have the capacity to market widely. Wood which is potential for timber

produced from farms and sometimes from community forests is processed locally into products

with high local demand not necessarily timber. In rural setting, fire wood is a necessity which is

be met with available wood from the farm before other products are considered. Lack of credible

wood valuation and market information by small scale producers has distorted economic value of

timber production. Timber brokers have exploited the ill-informed and desperate small scale

wood producers through ill bargaining.

Timber demand have been distorted by factors such as the status of forest policy formulation and

implementation especially the timber harvesting rules, lack of proper market structure and

organization, limited access to market and market information, lack of adequate knowledge on

tree inventory and valuation and technical data on the forest products in the market. In addition

to these bottlenecks county governments are expected to come up with revised county rules on

production, utilization and marketing of wood products which are geared towards local needs. In

all these cases the REDD strategy is expected to provide inform and options for removing the

bottlenecks.

Poles

Poles production is from all forests and is produced for transmission, construction and farming

requirement like fences. Transmission poles have provided a significant incentive to private

wood producers leading to establishments of numerous tree plantations and treatment plants

across the country. In 1994 public forests had potential to supply over 60% of poles demanded

but in 2012 the order has changed with public forests have the potential to supply 7%,

community / private forests 42.3% while farms has the potential to supply 50% of all poles.

Commercial poles producers have heavily invested in woodlots where the most preferred species

is eucalyptus. In recent times, this has proved to be a lucrative investment attracting

establishment of pole scouting and processing plants across the country. Small scale tree growers

have also been engaged as out growers supplying demanding firms.

Poles processing is simpler and cheaper procedure that involves identifying quality trees in terms

of size, straightness of the trunk and species. Cutting into size and treatment involves less

wastage compared to other products like timber.

Firewood

Firewood, an important source of energy for cooking at household and commercial levels in

Kenya is produced from all types of forests. Just like timber, fire wood harvesting from public

and partly from community forests is done by licensees who cut and market it. Fire wood from

community, private forests and farm trees is cut and processed on site by the owners who after

satisfying their needs sell the surplus. Fire wood is a wood product required in almost all rural

households, can be produced by all land owners and can use any form of wood. Fire wood has

relatively lower return than other wood products a factor that limits possibility of its long

distance distribution as the costs involved cannot be met. This has limited distribution of fire

wood form forested areas to non-forested dry areas where wood vegetation’s are being exploited

unsustainably.

Most rural households plant trees or wood lots for their energy supply, however, industrial

firewood demanding firms are organizing the small land owners into groups to supply them with

wood as have been evident in tobacco and tea producing areas. Some of these institutions

establish plantations for their wood supply and also nurseries to provide seedlings to surrounding

communities in order to source wood in proximity.

Charcoal

Charcoal is mainly produced for urban markets and with increasing population and urbanization,

charcoal market share is steadily growing. Charcoal is an important energy source as it is used

by 82% of urban households (MoE 2002) and hospitality industry. Its annual retail value is

estimated to be KES 80 Billion (FAOSTAT) with livelihood support of about 2.5Million

Kenyans (ESDA, 2005). Charcoal is sourced from community and private forests including farm

trees where in most cases it is produced for income generation. Charcoal producing investors are

coming up establishing eucalyptus plantations for transmission poles and charcoal production

with good returns but the quantities involved are low to cause significant impacts. With limited

income generating options among communities with forest lands and in low rainfall areas

charcoal production has become important causing deforestation to the already over exploited

tree cover.

Charcoal processing is mainly done through earth kilns that have been reported to be highly

inefficient resulting to very low recovery rates. Attempts to promote adoption of fairly efficient

brick kilns have been met by a range of challenges including cost of equipment’s and additional

costs in charcoal production. The law respects land owners rights making it difficult to control

and regulate charcoal production from community and individually owned lands. Charcoal

demand centers are in major urban centers whereas its production and processing is done at

stump site by many small producers. In an attempt by government to control production transit

procedures and requirements are put in place. Other than streamlining charcoal production and

marketing it is forced to go underground causing more damages and more difficult to control.

4.2 SUMMARY OF FACTORS AFFECTING WOOD DEMAND

Demand for wood products is influenced by a number of factors including:-

4.2.1Population

Demand depends on the number of people consuming a product. An increase in population

translates into more quantities being consumed. Population changes over time cause increased

demand over time. This rate of increase is not uniform in all counties but varies from county to

another. Variation in population within counties, in addition to birth rates, is influenced by

migration of people from one region to another like the rural urban migration and refugee influx

in some areas from within and outside the country. REDD+ strategy is expected to address

current and future demand in view of population changes.

4.2.2 Levels of income

Generally income levels determine quantities of wood consumed where higher levels of incomes

result to high demand for goods and services, including forest products. Higher incomes are also

associated with changing tastes like shifting from wood fuel use to gas cooking. In Kenya

income levels are not the same over time as positive economic growth which has been reported

in the last years indicate increased incomes and therefore increased rates on wood consumption.

Incomes are not uniform in all regions with those regions having higher incomes having higher

purchasing capacities as observed in urban centres like Mombasa and Nairobi.

Poverty on the other side contributes to low or reduced purchasing capacities and in an effort to

meet wood requirements poor communities tend to deplete forests resources at their disposal.

4.2.3 Price of wood

High prices of wood deter people from buying it and its products making them buy alternative

goods to wood like plastic products as household items and metal for construction in place of

wood. Prices of wood in Kenya tend to increase over time as supply and demand differences

increase making propensity to consume wood lower at household and commercial levels. This

might not be felt equally in all regions because some tend to produce their own wood by planting

but those where planting is not an option tend to rely on the already depleted wood resources.

4.2.4 Processing recoveries.

Wood is consumed in finished products form after processing of round wood or trees. During

processing or conversion significant amount of wood is lost depending on the technology and

the products being produced. A simple equation showing this loss is:

qd = fp + pw

Where

qd - quantity of round wood demanded

fp - volume of finished products or recovered volumes

pw - processing waste

Quantity of wood recovered in form of processed product is expressed as recovery rate which

varies from low rates for charcoal (16%) to high recovery rates for products like poles and fire

which require minimal processing. In cases of low recovery rates, relatively more round wood

volumes are demanded to produce same product quantities than a process with higher recovery

rates. As technologies applied improve less and less quantities of wood are lost during

processing resulting to less round wood demanded. For example, sawing round wood by use of

power saws recover at an average 25% while better technologies like band saws has a recovery

of over 48%.

4.2.5 Utilization efficiencies

Wood after processing undergoes further losses through utilization methods used. Sawn wood is

shaped into right useable size according to products being made resulting to waste through

undersize by products, saw dust and poorly processed pieces. Poles after harvesting are cut into

right lengths resulting to waste. In both cases (sawn timber and poles) the un-utilizable products

are used as fire wood in boilers and for cooking. Utilization of wood fuel is also inefficient using

relatively small proportions of products while the rest is wasted. Traditional ‘three stone’ open

fire pits are known to have a lot of wastage in fire wood. Cook stoves using charcoal have been

seen to have very high waste and deliberate attempts have been made to encourage communities

and households to adopt improved cook stoves (ICS). However, despite some progress in

disseminating efficient wood and charcoal stoves, accessibility and socio-cultural factors have

hindered wider adoption of these stoves.

4.2.6 Alternative products

There exist alternative products which can be substitutes to utilization of wood which if their

usage is adopted less quantity of wood would be used. Alternative energy sources such as solar

energy, electricity, biogas and transmission poles substitutes like concrete and metallic poles,

non-wood building materials like iron bars and also, concrete tiles in place of wooden shingles, if

adopted would reduce quantity of wood used. Corrugated iron sheets have been preferred in

place of timber in house construction in informal urban centers and rural areas. Whereas most of

this alternative products and energy sources would reduce wood usage significantly, their

adoption is inhibited by initial cost involved as well as socio cultural factors. Lack of access to

wood substitutes has contributed to over reliance on wood for all purposes translating to high

wood demands. To a greater extent, these substitutes, where available could ease pressure on the

depleted wood resources and their promotion is an option the REDD+ strategy can pursue.

4.2.7 Illegal export trade

Illegal trade where wood destined for transit is diverted for local use has been reported. There

have been small scale studies on illegal exports of wood products from Kenya to neighboring

countries but no reliable reports have been made. There have been arrests of illegal charcoal

trade in Kwale for charcoal destined for Zanzibar. Small quantities of wood being illegally

exported through the un-manned part of the border with Tanzania have also been reported. Study

to provide information of all these quantities together have not been undertaken and need to be

undertaken.

4.3 WOOD DEMAND ANALYSIS

Various studies and methodologies have been undertaken to establish the volume of wood

consumed either as timber, poles or wood fuel. These studies involve the establishment of wood

requirements by population being considered over a period of time. To arrive at demand

quantities of wood products two study approaches have been considered in this study. The

methods have been used by other countries within the Eastern Africa region and have given very

reliable demand results. These include:-

Demand or consumption centres based studies

Per capita based studies

4.3.1 Consumption or demand centers based study

Consumption centres based demand study involves study or assessment of quantities of wood

products consumed by utilizing centres (household, institutions or commercial) summing them

up to give the total for a given region. The method collates consumption or demand quantities of

a single or small number of wood products in relatively small area. This method is suited for

research studies involving a single or small number of products in an institution or a relatively

small locality like a town. At national level the method has been attempted but the problem of

collecting data on all consumed quantities has proved a challenge and ended upon being used to

provide indicative figures which cannot be relied on in planning.

Timber

Attempts to asses volume of timber consumed in Kenya by summing up intakes by processing

centres like sawmill, saw benches have been attempted. In most cases, the results have ended up

giving estimates, as data from processing centres is not be available. Harvesting of wood from

forests in community land and farmland is done by use of mobile saws, power saws and pit

sawing at stump site and no records are available. KFS record on quantities of timber demanded

is based on round wood sales from public forest and quantities reported in transit permits from

community forests and farmlands. This method that does not capture households’ consumption

quantities sourced from their lands. This leaves out wood acquired by saw mills from community

and private forests and those from farms. In a study on round wood demand it was estimated that

annual demand of timber in Kenya is between 2 and 2.4 million m3 per year (Cheboiwo and

Githiomi, 2012).

Plywood

There are three plywood mills with a total annual capacity estimated at about 40,000m3.

Pulp wood

The pulp and paper industry in Kenya comprise of 13 companies operating most of which use

recycled paper as raw material and only one (The Pan African Paper Mill) is licensed to process

paper directly from forests. The Pan African Paper Mill although not operating in 2012 had

annual capacity of 450 000m3 of round wood which was being obtained from public forests.

Poles

There are only two major consumers of treated transmission poles in the country, Kenya Power

and Lighting Company (KPLC) and Rural Electrification Authority (REA). Transmission poles

are harvested from Eucalyptus species plantations both from public and private forests. Poles and

posts for construction come from eucalypts, Casuarina species, mangrove species, Agave

sisalana among others. Demand for transmission poles by KPLC 2012 stood at 440,000m3 most

of it was produced locally with about 10% coming from imports (KPLC 2012). Poles are used in

construction industry, building and fencing at household level sourcing large amounts from

private forests and farms whose quantities have not yet been established.

Fuel-wood

In Kenya about 68% of the energy consumed comes from wood, mainly as firewood for cooking

and heating. This method require substantial amount of funds and time and has not been carried

out at national level but estimated demand of 37million m3 have been reported. (KFS 2011)

Aggregate demand from consumption centers

Consumption based demand studies discussed above estimates total wood demand in Kenya to

be 39.88 million m3and in addition to this, total annual exports as per 2010 Statistical Abstract

figures are 25,000m3. This figure, as urged above, does not include timber demand by mobile

saw benches and power sawn operators and poles demand at for building and also for

construction purposes. In the absence of this data, the figure cannot be relied on with certainty.

Consumption quantities demand based study can provide good results when all forms of

consumption from different sources can be quantified. The method is appropriate for giving

rough demand estimates for particular industries and products but have challenges when used for

national demand analysis.

4.3.2 Per capita based demand analysis

Per capita demand is the average amount of wood consumed by a person in a population per

year. The method relies on studies or surveys on consumption quantities of wood products by

given population then establishing the average per person per given period of time. This method

is weak in that, it tends to ignore small centers/areas with unique consumption characteristics

assuming similarity over the study area.

Per capita method of study is:

• Suitable for extensive area of study with some degree of homogeneity

• Easier and cheap to carry out in terms of resource and time

Demand quantities calculation by use of per capita consumption is expressed in the following

equation

Q = pc x p

Where:

Q = Quantity consumed

pc = per capita (average consumption by one person per given time)

p = population in the area under consideration

In Kenya, per capita consumption of wood products has been estimated through a number of

studies including:-

Kenya Forest Master Plan

KFMP 1994 carried out consumption studies to establish national averages for different wood

products. The studies established per capita consumption of poles as 0.338m3, fire wood as

0.444m3

and charcoal as 0.552m3.

Ministry of Energy study on Kenya’s Energy demand, supply and policy strategy for

households, small scale industries and service establishments

This study was carried out in 2002 where 15 representative rural districts and 5 major urban

centers were covered. It established per capita consumption of charcoal to be 0.218m3 and that of

firewood as 1.037m3.

Wood Integrated Supply/Demand Overview Mapping

A study by Wood Integrated Supply/Demand Overview Mapping (WISDOM) was carried out in

2005 by FAO on wood energy in East Africa. This study was done in 10 Eastern African

countries by use of large samples to establish their final results which were quite relevant to the

areas studied. These areas were categorized as urban, rural general, rural settlement and rural

sparse each with unique per capita consumption. The average for these areas presents the

national per capita which is 0.392m3

for charcoal and 0.448m3 for firewood

KEFRI study on Sustainable Wood fuel production

A study by KEFRI in 2012 on Sustainable Wood fuel production found that there is a deficit of

wood energy supply in Kenya. Its base year was 2000 with a population estimate of 28.68

Million and a consumption of wood biomass per year of 35.12 Million Tones. This translates to a

per capita consumption 1.22 tons equivalent to 1.75M3

(conversion rate of 1.43M3/Ton).

The Kenya Forest Service strategic plan 2009-2013

The Kenya Forest Service strategic plan 2009-2013 has quoted per capita demand for wood as

1M3

as has been estimated by KFMP.

The criteria for adoption of per capita consumption estimates by various past studies, used in this

study was based on study area and sampling intensity in the study. Based on this, the study

adopted KFMP estimates for poles and WISDOM estimates for fire wood and charcoal due to

their wide study coverage at satisfactory intensity. It also upheld the 1m3 per capita consumption

of wood used by KFS. The per capita consumption of timber which has not been addressed in

any study was derived by getting the difference of poles and wood fuel from the KFS total wood

consumption figure making it to be 0.1262m3.

Table 11: Summary of the per capita demand of the four wood products

PER CAPITA DEMAND OF WOOD PRODUCTS (M3)

SOURCE TIMBER POLES

FIREWOOD CHARCOAL TOTAL

RURAL URBAN NATIONAL RURAL URBAN NATIONAL

WISDOM 2005 _ _ 0.648 0.249 0.4485 0.204 0.579 0.3915

KFMP 1994 0.0338 0.4444 0.0179 0.0925 0.0552

KFS Strategic

Plan 2009 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1

Per capita

adopted 0.1262 0.0338 0.4485 0.3915 1

Per capita express the average consumption per person. To establish total demand at national

level population figures are important and had to be included in the analysis.

4.3.3 Population

Population figures used in this study were those of the census carried out by the Ministry of

Planning, National Development and Vision 2030 in 2009 .The total population in the country

was reported as 38, 610,097. A population growth rate of 2.6% per annum for the years 2010,

2011, 2012 was factored in. Population estimates of 41,700,664 for 2012 were used for

computing the national wood demand by considering the per capita established.

To estimate wood demand at county level, the same population growth rate was assumed to be

consistent in all 47 counties. This gave the population for each county, as at 2012, as indicated in

Annex 9.6.

4.3.4 National wood demand

The national demand for wood products is given in in the table 12 below. National demand of

wood and of particular wood products is the product of the national population and the per capita

consumption of wood and of particular wood product.

Table 12: The national demand of forest products (m3)

NATIONAL DEMAND

PRODUCTS

TIMBER POLES FIREWOOD CHARCOAL TOTAL

POPULATION PER

CAPITA 0.1262 0.0338 0.4485 0.3915 1

41,700,664

5,262,624 1,409,482

18,702,748 16,325,810

41,700,664

TOTAL NATIONAL DEMAND

5,262,624 1,409,482

18,702,748 16,325,810

41,700,664

National demand for wood products: timber, poles, fire wood and charcoal were calculated to be

5,262,624m3, 1,409,482m

3, 18,702,748m

3 and 16,325,810m

3 respectfully. Figure 3 below is a

graphical presentation of wood products demand levels.

Figure 3: Wood products demand

5,262,624

1,409,482

18,702,74816,325,810

TIMBER POLES FIREWOOD CHARCOAL

National Demand for wood productsm3

4.4. EXPORTS

Wood exports as recorded in statistical abstract 2012, indicates that the country exports minimal

volumes of timber. The export volumes in 2006 were 776,000m3 which declined to 25,000m

3 by

2010. A study on timber movement across three Kenya-Tanzania border points for a period of

six months in 2012 indicates minimal volumes of wood exports. The study records 6m3 of

timber, 47m3 of fire wood, 74m3 of charcoal and no poles were exported.

4.5. ROUND WOOD CONVERSION

Round wood is processed into the desired products by methods with varying efficiencies

resulting to some wastage which are already computed in the demand quantities. Timber

processing is done by sawmills, mobile saw benches, pit sawing and power saws. KFS records

indicate that quantity of wood processed into sawn timber by sawmills is estimated at 65% of the

total while mobile saw benches process 35% of total wood . Recovery rate by sawmills is

between 26% and 35% and average is taken to be 32% while that of mobile saws is at an average

of 25%. Other forms of processing take an average of 5% of total round wood and is wood

processed into plywood, pulp, paper and particle boards (Cheboiwo, Githiomi 2012), with

recovery rates of 95%. Processing trees into poles and fire wood is mostly done at stump site

with a processing efficiency estimated at 95% for both products. Round wood processing into

charcoal has the most inefficient conversion rate with 16% recovery (National Charcoal Survey,

2005). Below is table 13, showing volumes of wood products available after processing.

Table 13: Recovered wood volumes after processing of end products

RECOVERABLE SUPPLY (available) THROUGH PROCESSING

Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL

Saw mills

Mobile

saws

Total

sawn

wood

Other

forms

Total

Timber Fire wood Charcoal

National

Potential

Supply

4,561,267

2,456,067 7,017,334

346,080 7,363,414 3,028,907 13,654,022 7,358,717 31,372,531

Recovery

rates 0.32 0.25

0.95 0.95 0.95 0.16

Available

National

Supply

1,459,605

614,017

2,073,622

328,776

2,402,399

2,877,461

12,971,321

1,177,395

19,428,576

Source: KFS sawmilling section and charcoal survey 2005.

Total wood supply potential from the forests is calculated to be 31,372,531m3, processing this

volume by the existing technologies into the required products would realizes or recover

19,428,576 m3 in products (recoverable volume) indicating a conversion loss of 11,979,146 m3

which goes to waste as indicated in the table 14 below. If this conversion loss is minimized by

application of efficient methods fewer trees would be required to produce same volume of wood

products.

Table 14: Available and lost volumes by products after processing

Lost volumes through processing inefficiencies of raw forest wood

Timber Poles Fire wood Charcoal Total TOTAL

Supply Potential 7,363,414

3,028,907

13,654,022

7,358,717

20,980,209

31,405,060

Available Supply

2,402,399

2,877,461

12,971,321

1,177,395

14,148,716

19,428,576

Lost Volumes 4,961,016

151,445

682,701

6,181,322

6,831,494

11,976,484

Percentage loss 0.67 0.05 0.05 0.84 0.33 0.38

As shown in table 14 above the highest losses are made through conversion of wood into

charcoal followed by timber both putting into waste 84% and 67% of wood being processed

respectively.

Figure 4 is a graphical presentation of potential supply for each product, quantity recovered

referred to as available volume and the quantity lost.

Figure 4: Graphical presentation of available and lost wood volumes after processing

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

Timber Poles Fire wood Charcoal

SupplyPotential

AvailableSupply

LostVolumes

4.6 WOOD DEMAND BY COUNTIES

Demand by counties was calculated using the national per capita wood consumption and

population for each county. Annual wood demand by counties was seen to range from

109,667m3

for Lamu to 3,389,582 m3

for Nairobi. Demand quantities by products for each county

is shown in Annex 9.7

CHAPTER 5.0 CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF DEMAND AND

SUPPLY This analysis examines state of wood supply and demand assessing their interplay in various

locations, time and magnitude amongst various determining factors under current and anticipated

future environment. Within this study national and county level analysis of supply and demand

quantities has been done in the base year 2012. Forecasting of future quantities in the coming 20

years period has been done under varying supply and demand factors. The study carried out

assessment of the current and future quantities supplied and demanded with the aim of defining

and recommending possible interventions to achieve sustainability over the period.

5.1 CURRENT SUPPLY

Wood resource base

By use of satellite imagery showing forested areas and superimposing them with administrative

boundary maps, different forest types and their areas within public forests and counties were

analyzed. All forests outside public or gazetted forest areas were considered as community and

private forests. In the same analysis, areas under agro ecological zones 1,2,3,4 were categorized

as potential agro forest (trees on farms). Areas under national parks (see Annex 9.6) which are

managed for conservation were also identified.

5.1.1 National wood supply potential

Analysis based on yield capacities of different forests types including trees on farms gave the

potential yields as shown in the table 15 below.

Table 15: Summary of Wood supply potential from forested areas and trees on farms

National Wood Supply Potential

Forest Type All Products

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Public Forests

Public natural F. Supply Potential

814,821

-

-

529,634

285,187

814,821

814,821

Public Plantation F. Supply Potential

2,010,605

1,293,695

219,563

323,276

174,071

497,347

2,010,605

Community/Private Forests

Community Natural F. Supply Potential

4,879,383

1,301,169

650,584

1,919,224

1,040,935

2,927,630

4,879,383

Community/Private Plantation F. Supply Potential

1,826,208

395,279

630,599

520,215

280,116

800,331

1,826,208

Trees on Farms

Trees on Farms Supply Potential

21,841,513

4,373,272

1,528,160

10,361,673

5,578,407

15,940,080

21,841,513

National Supply Potential

31,372,531

7,363,414

3,028,907

13,654,022

7,358,717

20,980,209

31,372,531

National wood supply potential was found to be 31,372,531m3, while that of timber is 7.3million

m3, poles 3.0 million m

3, fire wood 13.7million m

3 and charcoal 7.4million m

3. Public forests

contribution to the total supply was calculated as 2,825,426m3, community/private forests as

6,705,592m3 and farm trees as 21,841,513m

3. Below (Figure 5) is a graphical presentation of

wood supply potential from the three forest tenure systems

Figure 5: Wood supply quantities from different forests

28254266705592

21841513

Public Community/private Farm trees

VOLUME

VOLUME

5.1.2 Wood supply potential from counties

Analysis of wood supply potential for each county has be done using a similar model as done for

national analysis where yield capacities of each forest types and their respective areas in each

county were used and results are as shown in Annex 9.4.

5.1.3 Supply Situation

Forest area

Wood supply is dependent on forest type and area. Comparing Kenya with other countries in the

region, forest cover area is relatively small averaging at 6.99% of national land area and falling

below the recommended 10%. Forests are found in high potential areas which are also suitable

and targeted by other land uses thus reducing the possibility of high rates of increase in forest

cover as envisioned and recommended. In the past deforestation resulting from conversion of

forest lands to other uses has one of the main causes of forest cover reduction. To ensure

reduction of forest cover loss to other land uses, and where possible reverse the trend, the

REDD+ strategy options should aim at:-

Creating awareness among tree owners on good forests management practices that make

returns from forest investment compare favorably with other land uses.

Rehabilitation and restoration of degraded ecosystems and the dry lands.

Increase incentives for increasing forest cover. This calls for improved management

practices, proper species selection, creation of awareness and incentives.

Yields

Forest yield have been looked at as the sustainably harvestable volumes in a given period of

time. Different forests types have varying yield capacities as a result of biomass stocking and

species composition. Past studies indicate gaps between current yields and expected optimal

yield capacities creating a viable entry point. Management of these forests towards optimal yield

capacities is a viable intervention in raising wood supply and subsequently reducing wood

deficit. These interventions include:-

Use of improved forest management techniques including using the right species,

adopting good management practices in existing forests, reaching out to all land owners

motivating them to enhance tree planting.

Tree planting in ASALs degraded forests pockets with the right species to raise the

supply from these areas to sustainably harvestable levels.

Protection of the existing growing stocks against fires, illegal activities and other

calamities to ensure increased wood supply in future.

Adopt policies that provide incentives in tree planting and those that protect existing

forest cover from conversion to other land uses.

Development of land use plans at national and regional level

Improved conversion efficiencies through tax incentives for high efficiency timber

conversion technologies

5.2 DEMAND OF WOOD

Demand has been observed to be closely related to number of people in a given locality and their

rates of wood consumption. Kenya has a population of 41,700,664 people with an average per

capita wood consumption of 1m3 per person per year translate to a national demand of

41,700,664 m3 per year. By use of the National per capita consumption of wood and that of wood

products demand quantities of the wood and various products has been calculated as shown in

table 16 below.

Table 16: National wood demand quantities

NATIONAL DEMAND

PRODUCTS

POPULATION 41,700,664

PRODUCTS TIMBER POLES FIREWOOD CHARCOAL TOTAL

PER CAPITA 0.1262 0.0338 0.4485 0.3915 1

TOTAL NATIONAL DEMAND

5,262,624

1,409,482

18,702,748 16,325,810 41,700,664

National demand for wood is 41.7million m3 with fuel wood having the highest demand quantity

of 18.8 million m3 followed by charcoal with a demand of 16.32 million m

3 both adding up to

35.08 m3. Timber and poles had a demand of 5.26 million m

3 and 1.41m

3 respectively.

Figure 6: Wood demand quantities for various products

5,262,624

1,409,482

18,702,748

16,325,810

TIMBER POLES FIREWOOD CHARCOAL

Wood products demand quantitiesDemand

Figure 6 above shows the demand quantities of the various wood products.

5.2.1 Demand situation

National wood consumption per capita is 1m3 per year, which is used in planning. However,

wood is consumed in form of processed end products whose consumption varies from one region

to the other depending on socio economic conditions of the region. Urban centers consume

relatively more charcoal than rural settings. Timber is demanded in high proportions in industrial

and upcoming urban centers than rural areas. Poles consumption is relatively high in rural areas

where transmission works are being undertaken as well as where fencing and building of wooden

houses is taking place. Firewood is mostly consumed in rural areas.

Population control to curb rising demand require policy interventions which are long term in

nature leaving checking of wood consumption rates as viable option to limit high and rising

demand. This can be done through adoption of strategy options targeting:-

Change or improvement of wasteful utilization techniques and practices through capacity

building and tax adjustments for wood working equipment’s’

Promotion of alternatives products to wood.

Review and adoption of policy and legal guidelines that regulate timber harvesting

methods and charcoal regulations

5.3 SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES

Forest managers strive to achieve a positive balance between demand and supply of wood

products in order to achieve sustainability. Positive balances indicate that supply quantity is

higher than demanded quantities while negative ones indicate lower supply quantities than

demand. Achievement of a positive state is the main task forest management guidelines and

plans pursue to achieve. Achieving and maintaining of this condition is a challenge because

factors determining supply are different from those determining demand and their effects change

over time.

In this study net balances are calculated based on the general formula:

Net balances = Supply – Demand

5.3.1 National wood supply and demand net balances

From the analysis, wood supply potential in Kenya is 31,372,531 m3 per year against a demand

quantity of 41,700,664.45 m3 per year leaving a difference of 10,328,133 m

3. In normal

circumstances, whenever demand is higher than supply, shortages are experienced in the market

and prices tend to increase. At local level (farm and community level) where producers are also

the consumers, tendency to harvest from growing stocks to meet their pressing needs is the most

obvious option. Once this option is adopted, degradation and deforestation sets in. Intervention

measures in policies and management approaches need to be put in place to correct the situation.

National supply and demand net balances and their computation are shown in the table 17 below

whereas the county’s net potential balances, computed just as the national balances, are shown in

Annex 9.8.

Table 17: National supply potential and demand net balances

NATIONAL NET BALANCES

Wood products

Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL

Firewood Charcoal Total

National Supply

Potential 7,363,414

3,028,907 13,654,022

7,358,717 20,980,209

31,372,531

National

Demand 5,262,624

1,409,482 18,702,748 16,325,810 35,028,558

41,700,664

NET

BALANCE 2,100,791

1,619,424

(5,048,726)

(8,967,093)

(14,048,349)

(10,328,134)

From the analysis, in table 17 above, timber and poles indicate production surpluses of

2,100,791m3 and 1,619,424m

3 respectively, while wood fuel (that is: firewood and charcoal)

indicate a production deficit of 5,048,726m3 and 8,967,093m

3 respectively. Addition of all

surpluses and deficits from all products indicate a deficit of 10,328,134m3 per year. Although net

quantities of timber and poles are reflected as surpluses most of these volumes are utilized as

wood fuel (either charcoal or firewood) to cater for their unmet demand, hence experienced

deficits of timber and poles presently in the market.

Figure 7: National net balances from potential supply and current demand

(15,000,000)

(10,000,000)

(5,000,000)

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

Firewood Charcoal

Timber Poles Wood fuel

Wood products

National Supply

National Demand

NET BALANCE

Figure 7 above shows graphical presentation of wood balances. There are potential surpluses for

timber and poles and deficits in wood fuel products charcoal and fire wood.

5.3.2 Wood supply and demand balances situation

National wood supply and demand indicate a shortfall in meeting existing demand. Under

normal circumstances this leads to:-

Harvesting of growing stocks or cutting quantities above allowable cut limits which have

great impact on resource base to meet future demand

High pricing of wood products making it less available to consumers

Harvesting from bush lands and wooded grasslands.

Although the overall wood supply and demand balances is negative, supply of timber and poles

shows adequate potential supply resulting in surpluses. It is due to the large deficit in wood fuel

that makes overall wood supply and demand equation negative. Wood requirements like fuel

wood is a necessity people cannot do without and under such circumstances, tend to use high

quality wood that is meant for timber to uses like fuel wood.

At national level, policies that support increased wood supply must be adopted while

discouraging those that hinder supply.

5.3.3 Optimum potential supply

Studies indicate that Kenyan forests have not yet reached the optimum yielding levels as

analyzed in Table 18 below. The study found out optimal sustainable yields for indigenous

forests to be 1.5m3 per ha (KIFCON 1993), for plantations to be 480m

3 per ha (KFS Inventory

records 2010) and for trees on farms a biomass volume of 27.0 m3 equivalent to 3.38 m

3 per ha

(Master plan 1994). Assuming that in 2012 all forests were yielding at optimal level, the total

national supply potential would have been 43,814,180 m3

which is higher than demanded

quantity in 2012 of 41,700,664m3. This confirms that, if good practices, application of technical

guidelines, review and adoption of new policies is done, Kenya can meet its wood requirement.

Table 18: National optimal supply quantities

FOREST TYPE AREA

CURRENT YIELD PER HA

OPTIMAL YIELD m3 PER HA

CURRENT SUPPLY (at 2012)

OPTIMAL SUPPLY

Natural 4,158,279 1.5 1.50 6,237,419 6,237,419

Plantation 8,296 407.35 480.00 3,379,375 3,982,080

Trees on farms 1,242,406 17.58 27.7 21,841,487 33,594,682

NATIONAL OPTIMAL SUPPLY

31,458,291 43,814,180

5.4 SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCES BY COUNTIES

Supply of timber from public forests is centrally done by Kenya forest service while supplies

from community forest and trees on farms are dependent on prevailing market conditions. In

both cases supply and demands are not confined to county boundaries. However, for ease of

packaging effective intervention measures, existing administrative units form the basic level of

analysis. Under the current prevailing conditions, good management practices are not adhered to,

in order to achieve owners’ objectives without management controls as market conditions that

guarantee higher returns form the destination or target markets for wood products. Analysis of

wood supply and demand by counties attempts to illustrate magnitudes in quantities supplied and

consumed as well as the possible flow of products from areas of deficit to areas of surplus. This

is the basic information to guide in formulation and choice of REDD strategy options for the

management of forest resources.

Analysis of wood supply and demand within counties was carried out and results shown in

Annex 9.8. Results on net supply and demand provided information on counties which placed

them into two categories namely: a) net producing, and b) net consumer counties.

5.4.1 Net wood producing counties

These are counties from which total wood supply quantities are more than total quantity

demanded showing a surplus which can be supplied to other counties. These counties are shown

in table 19 below with surplus quantities indicated.

Table 19: List of Net wood producing counties

Net Wood Producers

Baringo 720,628 Narok 2,054,365

Elgeyo Marakwet 664,255 Nyandarua 268,663

Kericho 288,275 Nyeri 240,293

Laikipia 156,984 Samburu 763,751

Lamu 367,292 Tana river 231,020

Nandi 88,589 West Pokot 689,154

Isiolo 14,298 Tharaka Nithi 52,616

There are 14 counties in this category with 9 of them being considered as from high and the

other 5 from low potential areas indicating that other factors not only forest production potential

are at play.

High potential area counties

These counties have in common relatively large forest areas and fall in the high potential areas

where area of farms capable of growing trees is proportionately big. They include Baringo,

Kericho, Nandi, Narok, Nyandarua, Elgeyo Marakwet, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi and Nyeri.

Wood production from these counties is favoured by climatic conditions resulting to high growth

rates. Average yield or supply from these forests is high and if well managed higher production

levels can be reached. Population densities in these areas are high and adoption of efficient

production methods would increase the positive net balances significantly. The REDD strategy

should consider these counties as having high potential of raising national wood supply to a level

of self-sufficiency.

Management of forests in these regions should aim at sustaining and where possible increase the

surplus condition through adoption of policies and governance approaches that:-

protect the existing areas covered by forests and also the growing stocks,

improve yield capacities and

reduce wasteful harvesting and utilization

Counties from low potential areas

These are counties mainly in dry lands where growth rates are low with small pocket of forests

areas mostly in river basins. Counties in this category, although net suppliers or producers of

wood, are seen to have low population densities translating to low demand with sizeable amount

of forest cover cable of meeting the county wood demand. These counties include Isiolo, Lamu,

Samburu, Tana River, and West Pokot.

Although this study tends to analyze supply from tree cover that can be considered as forests

these counties have large areas of bush land and wooded grasslands which if well managed can

yield substantial amount of wood sustainably. Currently non sustainable trees harvesting or

cutting to produce wood fuel is taking place for sale to other counties to raise incomes.

The forest resources within these counties should be sustainably managed through:-

improved management practices to enhance their production capacity,

use of management plans in the management of these forests and

reduced waste through fires and destructive utilization

From this group, of counties with a positive net balance, only 3 counties have a negative net

balance for fuel wood though all other products balances are positive. These counties include

Isiolo, Nandi, and Nyeri. REDD+ strategy should, among other recommendations, target

raising production of wood fuel and introduce energy saving utilization means to ensure

surplus in wood.

5.4.2 Net wood consuming counties

These are counties showing lower supply quantities than demand. With high demand than supply

quantities, there is high likelihood of forest degradation and deforestation to meet the existing

short falls. Management objective of these forests is to reduce or eliminate these deficits. Table

20 below shows a list of net consuming counties.

Table 20: Net Consuming Counties

Net Wood Consumers

Bomet (354,171) Kisii (897,835) Nairobi (3,200,057)

Bungoma (673,990) Kisumu (589,830) Nakuru (38,464)

Busia (414,366) Kitui (480,422) Nyamira (335,328)

Embu (119,397) Kwale (172,581) Siaya (357,868)

Garissa (349,038) Machakos (845,982) Taita Taveta (193,814)

Homa Bay (257,705) Makueni (403,435) Trans Nzoia (77,770)

Kajiado (171,634) Mandera (1,024,096) Turkana (454,993)

Kakamega (887,024) Marsabit (96,835) Uasin Gishu (26,251)

Kiambu (1,005,349) Meru (174,592) Vihiga (450,306)

Kilifi (345,964) Mombasa (971,204) Wajir (557,774)

Kirinyaga (188,912) Murang'a (390,095)

Net consuming counties in high potential areas

Analysis of the forest resource and demand characteristics in these areas indicate:-

i) Small forest areas with high urban population, e.g. Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, and

Kiambu. These counties demand wood for commercial use and have low forest area

producing wood. These counties form the major market centers for wood from counties

with surplus in production

ii) High population densities with large forest areas with relatively large public natural

forests which are not managed for production of wood products like timber, poles and

commercial wood fuel. These counties include Kirinyaga, Kakamega, Muranga, Embu,

Meru, Uasin Gishu, Nakuru and Trans Nzoia

iii) High rural populations with small forest areas especially plantations making potential

supply relatively low. These counties include Bomet, Busia, Homa Bay, Kisii, Nyamira,

Siaya, Vihiga, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Machakos, Makueni, and Taita Taveta.

Intervention measures to be recommended for these counties should aim at:-

Adoption of policies and incentives that promote commercial private tree planting.

Demand reduction measures which include reduction of waste through adoption of better

processing and utilization technologies and adoption of good forest management

practices through use of management plans. Facilitate flow of wood from net producing

counties to these counties through marketing skills development and wood products

availability information flow among counties.

Improve energy use efficiencies through promotion of efficient practices and

technologies

Promotion of alternatives to wood products especially wood fuel like electricity, wind

energy and gas.

Net consuming counties in low potential areas

These are counties with relatively small forest resource base and with low population densities.

Tree regeneration and growth is hampered by poor climatic conditions. Counties under this

category include Mandera, Wajir, Turkana, Garissa and Marsabit.

To reduce further deforestation, intervention options in these counties should be:-

Development of management plans to manage the small forests pockets.

Use of wood alternatives like electrification, solar energy and biogas energy

Energy conservation measures.

Improvement of road network

To enhance sustainable forest management practices of the already deforested and

degraded ecosystems in net consuming counties in low potential areas.

Improved distribution and flow of wood products from surplus regions.

5.5 FORECASTING SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Forecasts of the future supply and demand for wood and wood products are an important aid to

planning and decision making in the forestry sector. The Global Forest Product Model (GFPM)

was used to forecast the demand and supply of wood products in Kenya. As mentioned earlier

GFPM is an economic model of global production, consumption and trade of forest products

(Buongiorno et al. 2003). It has data and parameters to produce forecasts of 14 forest products

(including Timber, poles and wood fuel) for about 180 countries including Kenya. The model

will be used to forecast the supply and demand of wood products in Kenya up to 2032. The

differences between the supply and demand will then be computed over the forecasted period.

5.5.1 Forecasting of supply

Forecasting of the supply of wood products was computed up to 2032 with 2012 as the base year.

The following factors were considered when forecasting:

Factors affecting supply of wood products

In order for the model to estimate the future supply of wood products, factors that are deemed to

affect it have to be input for the base year. These include:

Forest area

Forest area has a direct effect in the supply of wood products. An increase in forest areas

raises capacity to produce more wood. Changes in forest areas arise from tree planting

through afforestation programs and natural regeneration. Reduction in forest areas

(deforestation) lowers the capacity to produce more wood and arises from harvesting,

forest fire and conversion of forest lands to other uses like settlements. All factors

affecting forest area were fed into the forecasting model.

Forest yield

Forest yield refers to volume of wood products capable of being harvested from a given

area at a certain time. Forest wood yielding capacity is affected by age of trees,

accessibility, forestry management regime, governing laws among other variables.

Degraded forests have lower yields. Forest yield affects the supply of wood products

since the higher the yield the higher the availability of wood products.

Economic growth

Positive economic growth enable higher resource allocation to forest management

including planting, protection and application of improved technologies all of which will

improve or raise wood supply quantities over time. Furthermore development of

infrastructure especially in heavily forested areas will give access to a wide range of

wood products.

Policies and management guidelines

Future wood supply has a direct relationship with forest management practices being

applied today. Management interventions are dependent on policies and guidelines being

applied. Policies may stimulate production while others discourage some forms of

consumption all affecting futures supply and demand levels and at the same time land

policies will determine rate of forest land changes to or from other uses over time.

Climate change

Changes in climatic conditions like rainfall and temperatures may result to drought,

heavy rainfall, flooding, landslides, forest fires, seeding patterns of trees all of which

have an effect on forest productivity. These factor are factored in the forecasted model

based adopted.

5.5.2 Results on forecasting of supply

The following table gives the forecasting of the supply of wood products in Kenya.

Table 21: Forecasting of the supply of wood products in Kenya

Forecasting of the Supply of Wood Products in Kenya

Wood

Product

(1000

m3)

Year

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

Timber 7358.45 7550.89 7723.49 7942.39 8117.71 8352.66 8547.92 8777.35 9014.33 9244.41 9479.34

Poles 3029.65 3102.52 3177.29 3265.30 3357.87 3445.37 3535.49 3618.75 3716.38 3817.79 3915.73

Firewood 13639.88 13845.77 14054.78 14254.17 14451.38 14678.82 14875.43 15064.60 15257.67 15480.56 15724.10

Charcoal 7344.55 7454.29 7566.21 7680.33 7792.73 7909.19 8028.06 8152.51 8285.16 8407.98 8528.68

Total 31372.53 31953.47 32521.77 33142.19 33719.69 34386.04 34986.90 35613.21 36273.54 36950.74 37647.85

Table 21 above shows forecast supply quantities of wood products from 2012 to year 2032

which is the forecast period. From the table supply of timber and poles is projected to increase

by 28.8% and 29.2% from 2012 to 2032, firewood by 15.3% and charcoal by 16.1%. Wood

supply is projected to increase from 31372530m3 in 2012 to 37647850m

3 in 2032 an increase of

20.0%.

The figure below captures the trend in the forecasting of the supply of wood products in Kenya.

Figure 8: Forecasting of the supply of wood products in Kenya.

0

500

01

00

00

150

00

Vo

lum

e (

10

00

m3)

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year

Timber Poles

Firewood Charcoal

Forecasting of the Supply of Wood Products in Kenya

According to figure 8 above, the trend in the projection of supply of wood products in Kenya is

approximately linear for all the products with firewood having the greatest inclination and poles

have the least since firewood has the greatest supply while poles are the least supplied of all the

wood products.

5.5.3 Forecasting of demand

Factors affecting demand

Demand of wood like supply changes with time depending some of the determining factors.

Parameters from the factors were fed into the forecasting models to determine the future demand

changes from the 2012 base year levels.

Factors determining supply were analyzed to be:-

Population

Population growth increase future demands as more people are added. Kenya national

Bureau of statistics estimates a inter census growth of 2.6%.

Economic growth

Economic growth raises the purchasing power subsequently making demand of wood and

wood products higher for a wide variety of commodities, including forest products

(primary and secondary processed wood products, pulp and paper). Positive Economic

growth catalyzes construction and electrification activities which require more wood.

Economic growth enable household to increase their budget limits subsequently buying

more wood products

Rural-urban migration

Migration of people from one area to another, shifts wood consumption levels from one

area to another. Migration from rural to urban will generally result to a reduction of

demand for fuel wood in rural areas and an increase in charcoal consumption.

Price of wood and other alternative products

Demand is sensitive to price changes with increase in wood prices causing a reduction in

quantities demanded.

Policies

Policies influence demand quantities both positively and negatively. Government uses

this fact to control consumption to required levels now and in future period.

5.5.4 Results of the forecasting of demand

The following table gives the forecasting of the demand of wood products in Kenya.

Table 22: Forecasting of the Demand of Wood Products in Kenya

Forecasting of the Demand of Wood Products in Kenya

Year

Wood

Product

(1000

m3)

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

Timber 5262.62 5465.05 5674.72 5908.44 6120.67 6356.66 6628.14 6802.66 7016.05 7295.82 7537.76

Poles 1409.48 1473.85 1542.10 1613.93 1692.38 1768.05 1854.65 1932.33 2031.79 2122.60 2230.26

Firewood 18702.75 18936.08 19220.67 19559.70 19860.51 20135.65 20441.91 20749.93 21089.45 21412.58 21715.90

Charcoal 16325.81 16615.39 16851.66 17127.07 17415.41 17737.85 18046.41 18398.90 18653.15 18935.27 19228.18

Total 41700.66 42490.37 43289.15 44209.14 45088.97 45998.21 46971.11 47883.82 48790.44 49766.27 50712.10

Table 22 above shows the forecasted demand trends of wood products with the planning period,

between 2012 and 2032. Within the planning period, demand for wood is estimated to increase

from 41,700,660 m3 in 2012 to 50,712,100m

3 in 2032, an increase of 9,011,440m

3. Demand of

timber is projected to increase by 43.2%, poles by 58.2%, firewood by 16.1% and charcoal by

17.8% from 2012 to 2032 while the total wood demand is to increase by 21.6%.

The figure below captures the trend in the forecasting of the demand of wood products in Kenya.

Figure 9: Forecasting of the demand of wood products in Kenya.

0

500

01

0000

150

002

0000

Vo

lum

e (1

000

m3)

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year

Timber Poles

Firewood Charcoal

Forecasting of the Demand of Wood Products in Kenya

According to figure 9 above, the trend in the projection of demand of wood products in Kenya is

approximately linear for all the products with firewood having the greatest inclination and poles

have the least since firewood has the greatest demand while poles are the least demanded of all

the wood products.

5.5.5 Projected supply and demand balances of wood

Net balance of supply and demand quantities for each product, in each year within the planning

period are shown in table 23 with a deficit from the base year to 2032.

Table 23: Projection of the Net Balances (Supply-Demand) of Wood Products in Kenya

Projection of the Net Balances (Supply-Demand) of Wood Products in Kenya

Wood

Product

(1000

m3)

Year

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

Timber 2095.83 2085.84 2048.77 2033.95 1997.04 1996.00 1919.78 1974.69 1998.28 1948.59 1941.58

Poles 1620.17 1628.67 1635.19 1651.37 1665.49 1677.32 1680.84 1686.42 1684.59 1695.19 1685.47

Firewood -5062.87 -5090.31 -5165.89 -5305.53 -5409.13 -5456.83 -5566.48 -5685.33 -5831.78 -5932.02 -5991.80

Charcoal -8981.26 -9161.10 -9285.45 -9446.74 -9622.68 -9828.66 -10018.35 -10246.39 -10367.99 -10527.29 -10699.50

Total -10328.13 -10536.90 -10767.38 -11066.95 -11369.28 -11612.17 -11984.21 -12270.61 -12516.90 -12815.53 -13064.25

This deficit is projected to continue over the next 20 years of forecasting period. The deficit is

brought about by a deficit of firewood and charcoal products at approximately 5,062,870m3 and

8,981,260m3 respectively. On the other hand, during the same year there is a surplus of timber

and poles at approximately 2,095,830m3 and 1,620,170m

3 respectively. This surplus is projected

all the way to 2032. The figure below gives the projection of wood products in Kenya.

Figure 10: Forecasting of the net balances (supply-demand) of wood products in Kenya

-150

00

-100

00

-500

0

0

500

0

Vo

lum

e (

10

00

m3)

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Year

Total Timber

Poles Firewood

Charcoal

Forecasting of the Net Balances (Supply-Demand) of Wood Products in Kenya

Figure 10 above shows the trend in net balances (supply-demand) of wood products in Kenya

from 2012 to 2032. It shows a general deficit for firewood and charcoal. This deficit is projected

to be on an upward trend during the forecast period.

CHAPTER 6.0 POLICY AND LEGAL ENVIRONMENT

6.1 OVERVIEW

Policies and legal frameworks governing wood production in Kenya largely fall in forestry,

energy and their allied sectors and are generally aimed at ensuring sustainable and affordable

supply of wood, mainly for subsistence and commercial uses. However, policy spill overs from

other sectors of the economy often have even greater impacts on wood supply and demand than

forest policies themselves. Through their implementation, practice has shown that, while some of

these policies have met their intended objectives, the reverse is true for others. Part of the

successes or failures in the policy impacts is closely related to the institutions (national and local)

mandated directly and indirectly to implement these policy frameworks. Some of these

institutions are: Central government ministries and agencies (Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of

Environment, Water and Natural Resources, Ministry of Energy and Ministry of Agriculture).

Government agencies include KFS, Kenya Forestry Research Institute (KEFRI), National

Environment Management Authority – NEMA, County Governments (major suppliers and

consumers), National Land Commission (NLC)), Nyayo Tea Zones, private owners/entities such

as Kakuzi, tea growing companies, individual tree growers(with substantial production capacity),

Community Forest Associations (CFAs), NGOs (Kenya Forests Working Group - KFWG, East

African Wild Life Society - EAWLS, Forest Action Network - FAN, Green Belt Movement-

GBM, among others) as well as Government agencies involved in foreign investments. A matrix

showing existing institutional gaps and recommendations within these institutions is presented in

annex 10.1

Policy instruments and institutional responsibilities have an overall impact on Kenya’s capacity

to attain the current national wood production potential standing at 31.4 million cubic metres in

endeavor to meet the current national demand of 41.7 million cubic metres. The policy

recommendations made in this study are critical if Kenya is to meet the projected wood demand

of 50.7 million cubic metres against the wood supply projected at 37.6 million cubic metres in

2032.

Development of a REDD+ strategy in Kenya therefore requires an in-depth analysis of the

existing key policy and legal frameworks as well as an understanding of capacities and

institutional gaps and the conflicting positions that hamper sustainable forest resources

management. Understanding of this capacity will contribute to development of REDD+

interventions that will enhance wood supply in order to meet the country’s increasing wood

demand. This chapter provide an analysis of the relevant policy and legal instruments and

institutions that influence wood supply and demand in Kenya. It provides policy

recommendations on what is needed to curb the already high and rising demand as well as

enhance wood supply.

6.1.1 Forest management challenges in Kenya

Forest management in Kenya is faced with many challenges. Some of these are

1. Policy and institutional failure has in the past created a general apathy where short term

gains (illegal logging, encroachment and charcoal production) are pursued in most of the

forests especially those that are not well protected (most of them on community land and

private lands).

2. Lack of a land use policy has initiated competition between forest and other land uses.

3. Increase in population without a corresponding economic development has resulted in the

need to have more land to for settlement and agriculture.

4. Community forests do not have a strong legal framework for their conservation,

protection and management.

5. The political will to conserve forests has also been erratic and in the recent past, political

decisions, such as settlement of people in Mau Forest Complex have been anchored on

other motives rather than professionalism.

6. Other challenges include inadequate forest research and education, inadequate use of

research findings to promote forestry, conflicts in policies and institutional mandates,

inadequate financing of forestry and inadequate law enforcement mechanisms.

7. Road infrastructure is very poor and some forests are not accessible. Rail infrastructure is

also very poorly developed in Kenya. This raises the cost of transporting raw materials

from some areas and directly diminishes SMEs competitiveness and profitability. In other

areas, there is no electricity making timber processing long and expensive. Improvement

of infrastructure will encourage forestry investment in Kenya.

8. Inadequate capacity among small scale investors. In some forest areas, local communities

through CFAs are keen to engage in timber processing industries through SMEs. One of

the limitations is the amount of capital investment (financial and capital) that is required

at minimum before they are pre-qualified by KFS.

6.2 POLICY ENVIRONMENT

6.2.1 Policies with positive influence on wood supply and demand

Some of the policy and legal frameworks with a positive influence on wood supply are those that

promote use of renewable sources of energy, encourage the planting of trees and woodlots by

individual land owners, institutions and community groups, that provide economic incentives,

promote sustainable land use planning, promote long term tree investments, promote

certification/authentication of forest products.

Policies promoting renewable sources of energy

Policies promoting adoption of renewable sources of energy by individuals, households,

institutions and community groups include the Environmental Management and Coordination

Act (EMCA) 1999, Agriculture policies and laws, Forests Act (2005), the draft National Forestry

(Conservation and Management)-Forests Bill 2012, the Forests (Charcoal) Rules, 2009, the

Energy Act 2006 and Vision 2030.

The Forests Act, 2005 promotes wood fuel production through provisions of a wide range of

incentives to private sector investments (e.g. loans). It also encourages partnerships with wood

fuel consumers and farmers through contract tree farming schemes. The Agriculture Policy

promotes development of incentives for establishment of ago-processing and rural industries in

rural areas where wood fuel is the potential source of energy. It also promotes agroforestry as it

has potential of increasing wood fuel production for domestic consumption. The Energy Act

promotes development of renewable energy. Vision 2030 recognises that energy is critical in

achieving socio-economic transformation and industrial policy. It recognises that the supply of

steady, predictable, quality and affordable energy, among others, is a major ingredient to catalyse

industrialization. These policy statements have good intentions by all standards but the current

policy environment is such that incentives such as loans are not provided, contract farming

schemes are lacking and very little is being done to implement the policy statement, in other

words there is very little action to implement the policy statements.

Charcoal trade has been demonised as an illegal dirty business for the poor people. However,

recent changes to regulate this trade with a view of changing people’s perception through the

KFS gazetted charcoal rules 2009 is a positive development in getting people to grow trees for

charcoal production. The rules allow farmers to form Charcoal Producer Associations (CPAs)

which are licensed by KFS. Implementation of the rules has encouraged producers to get

competitive prices through creation of CPAs.

Policies promoting economic incentives

Forest incentives come in the form of direct financial aid for forest management, free seedlings

and advice and technical assistance for forest managers. The primary objective of all three is

increased wood supply and all three generally target supply from small landowners. In Kenya,

technical assistance programmes are often in the form of forestry extension programmes. These

programmes are designed to bring the latest information on modern technologies to local forestry

operations. Various public programmes donate seedlings to smallholders and communities, or

build nurseries that provide seedlings at discounted prices. They decrease the costs of forest

management and encourage tree production. In Kenya, forest incentives are mainly from

technical advice by KFS through forest extension programmes.

EMCA allows the Minister of Finance to propose to Government, tax and other fiscal incentives,

disincentives or fees to induce or protect the proper management of natural resources or the

prevention or abatement of environmental degradation. The draft National Policy on Carbon

Finance and Emission Trading provide for enactment of laws that establish a special taxation

regime for carbon trading projects and associated revenue and expenditures. It also introduces

tax rebates / incentives/concessions with respect to particular projects in certain high priority

sectors such as renewable and alternative energy.

The Forests Bill 2013 provides economic incentives through establishment of the forest

conservation and management fund for commercial forestry. The draft Forests Bill 2013

proposes tax and other fiscal incentives to increase investments in forest land use and forest

resource utilization. The Bill also provides incentives for increasing forest and tree cover through

the establishment of a National Community Forestry Programme; a National Reforestation

Programme; and a National Programme for Craft Apprenticeships and Vocation Training There

are other competing funds that has also been established such as the National Restoration Fund

established by EMCA, the Water Towers Conservation Fund that is managed by the Water

Tower Agency and the Forest Management and Conservation Fund by KFS. These funds have

not been used to fund reforestation either because they do not have funds or because of other

priorities. The established Funds should be harmonised with a view of establishing a specific

Fund for forestry under KFS.

The Land Act, 2012 provides incentives for communities and individuals to invest in income

generating natural resource management programmes. It provides measures to facilitate the

access, use and co-management of forests, water and other resources by communities who have

customary rights to these resources. This Act has just been rolled out for implementation. The

National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) provides tax incentives and favourable

import tariffs on technology for projects that reduce emissions

Policy Regulations

There are several regulations that would increase wood supply in Kenya if well enforced. These

include Timber (Harvesting) Regulations, 2009, Participation in Sustainable Forest Management

Regulations, 2009 and Agriculture Farm Forestry rules 2009, Forests (Charcoal) Regulations,

2009 and EMCA regulations such as EIA and audit regulations. Participation in Sustainable

Forest Management Regulations, 2009 allows KFS to issue permits, timber licenses (1 yr.),

contracts (e.g. for raising of seedling, tree planting etc.), joint agreements or a long term

concession agreement for a specified forest related activity. The current practice in timber

licensing has been through 1 year contracts which have been a dis-incentive to large scale saw

millers whose interests are long term in nature. Agriculture Farm Forestry rules 2009 allows

maintenance of 10% tree cover on farms, sustainable production of wood, charcoal and other

non-wood products. Compliance to the rules is lacking. Timber (harvesting) Regulations, 2009

regulate timber harvesting.

Policies promoting sustainable land use planning

EMCA underscore the environmental planning as a means of regulating unsustainable land use

practices. The Land policy promotes sustainable land use planning. The Land Policy calls for the

development of comprehensive resource tenure policy as part of an overall land use policy and

provide for development of land use plans at national, regional and local level. A draft land use

policy is in place and there is need to fast track its finalisation and development of land use plans

taking into consideration forestry and farm forestry land use practices.

The County Government Act No 17 of 2012 provides that county planning objectives shall

facilitate the development of a well-balanced system of settlements and ensure productive use of

scarce land, water and other resources for economic, social, ecological and other functions across

a county; maintain a viable system of green and open spaces for a functioning eco-system;

provide the preconditions for integrating under-developed and marginalized areas to bring them

to the level generally enjoyed by the rest of the county; work towards the achievement and

maintenance of a tree cover of at least ten per cent of the land area of Kenya as provided in

Article 69 of the Constitution. The envisaged county development will spur growth and

development and increase wood demand. County governments are very new governance

structures in Kenya and there is need to fast track development of County Action Plans.

Policies that promote tree growing

The Forests Act 2005, the draft Forests Bill 2013, the Agriculture Laws (2012) and Farm

Forestry regulations promotes tree growing in Kenya. Apart from providing tree growing

incentives, the draft Forests Bill also promotes tree growing through programs necessary for

observing the national tree-planting week on public and community land. Agroforestry practices

in Central Kenya have increased wood supply for domestic and commercial needs (e.g., supply

of wood fuel for the tea industry). However, there are still inadequate policy interventions on

increased land productivity through intensification of agriculture practices.

Policies promoting long term tree investments

For a long time, Kenya’s forests especially plantations were exploited through 1 year licences.

This system did not provide the licensee with incentives to engage in sustainable forest

management practices. To address this policy gap, the Forests Act 2005 now allows management

of forests through concessions. In line with this, KFS has prepared a Forest Concession

Framework that confers the right to harvest to a third party over a period of 30 years. Under

these conditions, the risk and uncertainty borne by the licensee is mitigated by the terms of the

concession agreement.

The Draft National Policy on Carbon Finance and Emissions Trading support activities that

attract carbon finance through mitigation areas such as sustainable management and conservation

of forest areas, and afforestation and reforestation activities. It promotes sustainable energy

consumption and use of renewable and energy efficient measures as well as large-scale tree-

planting programmes, plantation forestry with suitable species and commercial farm forestry

to reduce pressure on natural forests. There is therefore a need to enact the National Policy on

Carbon Finance and Emissions Trading as it will facilitate the trading of carbon and encourage

people to invest in large scale tree growing ventures. Other policies such as those promoting

foreign investments are also critical in long term tree investments in Kenya.

Policies that promote Certification/Authentication of forest products

The National Forestry (Conservation and Management) Bill 2013 allows for establishment and

management of a Chain-of-Custody system, to verify the origin of forests products from public

land which if implemented would reduce illegal exploitation of forests and promote on-farming

forestry and therefore lead to increased supply of wood products from farms. It also allows for

rules and regulations to establish standards for the scaling, grading and marking of timber and

other forest products. Currently timber grading is implemented by the outdated Timber

Regulations. The Act requirement on grading is rarely applied since most of the products being

exported are finished/high value added products. This Act is outdated and any relevant

provisions should be integrated within the relevant industry (infrastructure) laws or the draft

Forest Bill 2013 (as currently provided).

Policies promoting gender equity

The land Act in its list of guiding values and principles includes “equitable access” and

“elimination of gender discrimination in law, customs and practices related to land property in

Land”. This provision will motivate women to get much more involved in tree growing.

However, it will be a challenge to reconcile customary land governance practices – which in

most cases discriminate against women rights pertaining to land management, use, transfer, and

inheritance – with constitutional standards for gender equity in land matters. Gender equity is

also well articulated in Constitution of Kenya, National Land Policy, Land Registration Act and

National Land Commission Act.

Policies promoting environmental easements

The Land Act allows for conservation or environmental easements if established by other

legislation such as EMCA. Environmental easements on REDD+ areas would promote increased

investment in tree management, and hence supply. This is particular important in some of the

Counties that are net wood producers but which cannot utilise the potential because most of it is

locked, e.g., Lamu with a net balance of 420,283 cubic metres and Narok with a net balance of

1,959,874 cubic metres. Most of the forest vegetation in Lamu is comprised of gazetted

mangrove forests and the forest vegetation in Narok is within the Mara game reserve. EMCA

currently requires the court’s approval for environmental easements. For this kind of easement to

become a viable option legal tool for conservation in Kenya, however, parties need to be able to

create and register them without involvement of a court. Otherwise the process will remain too

bureaucratic and costly to allow for more than sporadic use of these easements. EMCA should

therefore be reviewed with a view of removing the court approval requirement.

6.2.2 Factors with positive influence on wood supply and demand

Pricing

High pricing of wood products especially for construction has tended to increase wood supply by

encouraging people to engage in commercial farm forestry. In Meru for example, the demand for

tree products by tea growing companies have encouraged farmers to grow trees for this industry.

It is also important to note that there was a lot of farm forestry expansion in this region when

there was ban on logging in Kenya.

Wood demand

Most of the policies that promote economic development in Kenya have a positive bearing in

wood demand. Socio and economic environmental changes are also important factors influencing

wood demand in Kenya. Some of these policies and environmental changes that have been

considered in projecting wood demand at 50.7 million cubic metres by 2032 are highlighted

below.

Small and Medium Enterprises and rural development

Policies such as Agriculture Act, Farm forestry regulation and vision 2030 which promotes

industrial and rural development positively influence demand. Vision 2030 envisages realizing

an industrial competitive nation and promotes Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) as future

large industries and increasing productivity and competitiveness of the local industries. The

vision prioritizes infrastructure development which will positively increase the demand of wood

products.

Increase in population

Increase in population has resulted to increased demand for wood based products. In 1963,

Kenya’s population was 9 million; today it is 40 million (4 times higher) and is expected to reach

64 million in 2030. Increase in population has two effects; it increases demand but also may

reduce supply as more land is opened up for cultivation and settlement. The Population Policy

for National Development, 2012 provides an overall framework and proposes key policy

measures to be undertaken to address the critical population management issues in the country.

Under the population and environmental sustainability section, the policy calls for the

intensification of the use of population data in environmental planning and resource

management.

Increased demand for tree products

Urbanisation, population increase, settlement around refugee camps, migration, poverty among

other factors have also contributed to increased demand of wood products. In refugee camps

around Garissa, this has contributed to a lot of degradation of woodlands in this and surrounding

counties.

Housing

Though there has been a robust growth in housing development over the last few years, there

remains a very high and un-met demand particularly in urban areas. Under the Vision 2030, a

target of over 200,000 units per year is required.

Migration and Urbanisation

Over the last few years, there have been demographic, social and economic changes, which have

been brought by urbanisation. In 1963, for example, 8% of Kenya’s population lived in cities and

towns. Currently, over 35% of the people live in cities and towns while it is estimated that by

2030, 50% of Kenya’s population will be living in cities and towns.

The Draft National Urban Development Policy, the Cities and Urban Areas Act 2011, Housing

Act Cap 117 and Vision 2030 are important policy instruments in increased urbanisation and

development in Kenya which has a net effect in increased demand of wood products in the

country ( If this is the case then it should inform the wood projections for this study.). The long

term goal of Draft National Urban Development Policy (NUDP) 2011 is to accelerate economic

growth, reduce poverty, promote equity and help the country realise Vision 2030. Environment

and climate change is one of the thematic areas addressed by NUDP. Fast tracking the

enactment of the National Urban Development Policy is needed. The Cities and Urban Areas

Act, 2011 requires urban areas and cities to prepare integrated plans taking environment into

considerations and needs of the community and aligning the needs to the requirements of the

constitution.

In conclusion there are good policy instruments that Kenya as a country need to take advantage

of in order to promote wood production which include policies on incentives, accessibility to

credit, tax rebates/exceptions on farm forestry inputs among others. In order to realise the

potential wood supply these instruments will be crucial. Policy recommendations are presented

in section 7 of this report.

6.2.3 Factors that negatively impact on wood supply and demand

There are policy attributes that may negatively affect wood supply and demand in Kenya. In

order to realise the wood supply and demand projections, there is a need to address these policy

attributes.

Wood supply

While demand for timber, poles, and fuel wood in Kenya has increased over the last few

decades, forest policies and institutions have not responded adequately to improve supply. On

the contrary, most of the institutions weakened with a corresponding collapse of governance.

Negative influence is mostly attributed to policy inadequacy, retrogressive and conflicting laws.

Some of these include implementation of policies that fail to address inefficiency in production

so as to reduce wastage during processing, implementation of policies that do not adequately

promote production of wood in dry lands/recognise the large potential of dry land vegetation in

meeting Kenya wood demand needs, policies that restrict trade in wood products, policies that

provide little or no incentive for tree farmers to grow and manage trees for wood production, and

policies that put little emphasis on certain types of energy sources. Lack of security of land

tenure, in-adequate institutional capacities, lack of credit support, poor planning, competition for

scarce investment funds with non-forestry projects (often prioritised), inappropriate policies in

encouraging private sector participation, weak economic conditions and inadequate

infrastructure, unfavourable policies are also factors that negatively affect wood supply in

Kenya.

Security of Land and Tree tenure

Within Kenya, there are three main categories of land: government, private and community land.

Community land covers 67% of Kenya’s land. There is limited security of tenure for people

living in Community Land. For example, only 40,400 out of the 262,000 households in coastal

region have titles to their land. Most farmers in many other parts of the country such as Kitui,

Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Narok, Mandela, Wajir, Garissa and Turkana do not have title deeds

on land that they occupy. Lack of security of tenure de-motivates farmers living on this land

from growing trees/investing on long term tree programmes.

Lack of a strong legal framework for management of community land

For a long time, trust land forests (now community forests) have lacked a strong legal framework

for their conservation, protection and management. This has contributed to degradation of most

of these forests and allocation for settlement as they are often seen as free lands and therefore

prone to tragedy of the common. The Government is in the process of formulating a Community

Land Law which should address this gap.

Lack of an appropriate policy for dry land forest

Most dry land forests are virtually unmanaged. Lack of an appropriate policy for dry land forest

vegetation has led to degradation of dry land vegetation. These vegetation cover types present a

challenge to forestry both because of the harsh environmental conditions in which they occur and

in view of the intimate interaction between the vegetation, people and the livestock. Traditional

forestry as practiced elsewhere is not applicable and therefore management of natural and

planted tree stands must address not only the problems of dry zone silviculture but also the vital

dependence of people and livestock on the vegetation.

The state of dry land forestry resources is reminiscent of wasteful use patterns and degradation

mainly overgrazing, overexploitation of trees for the acquisition of fuel wood (firewood and

charcoal) particularly in the neighbourhood of towns and refugees camps. This state is

compounded by high levels of poverty and low levels of development investment especially

infrastructure. Even where technical information and production technologies exist, adoption

levels have remained low due to poor extension service delivery and low investments.

Most of the wood products especially charcoal come from dry land vegetation, yet there is no

policy recognising this as a main source of charcoal now and in future with a view of addressing

dry land forestry challenges. Dry land forests have untapped potential especially in the

production of charcoal and commercial timber production using fast growing and drought

tolerant tree species. An appropriate policy to promote dry land forestry is highly needed.

Inefficient machinery, high cost of technology transfer and limited accessibility to credit

The wood industry in Kenya is characterized by a lot of waste. On average the recovery rate in

sawn wood production is about 25% for mobile saws, 32% for other sawmills, 95% for pulp,

plywood and particle boards, 95% for poles, 95% for firewood and 16% for charcoal. This is one

of the reasons why despite having a potential supply of 31,372,531cubic metres, Kenya can only

realise 19,428,576 cubic metres because of inefficiency. The inefficiency is attributed to the use

of old, inappropriate and inefficient machinery for sawmilling. Use of efficient technology is a

problem for the small scale industry operators where logging and processing is labour intensive

with most SMEs using old inefficient machinery such as tractors and saws for milling. The

resulting timber is often of poor quality as a result of the technology applied and failure to treat

the timber. Access to bank credits as a result of high interest rates (currently ranging between 18

and 30%) discourages SMEs from access to loans in order for them to invest in efficient

technologies. There is therefore need to provide favourable environment for improvement of

technology as this will increase the potential wood supply.

Economic viability of business entities

Investment cannot proceed without viable business entities in which to invest. Most land holding

in Kenya are small in size and may not be economically viable and hence the need to pull

stakeholders together in order to increase the production area probably through formation of

farmers groups and cooperatives.

Expansion of agriculture, settlements and other developments

Increase in population has resulted to increased demand for agricultural land because there are

inadequate policy interventions on increasing land productivity in existing agricultural land. The

result has been “horizontal” expansion where more land is opened up for agriculture. So long as

the agricultural value of land surpasses that of forestry, agricultural expansion will continue to

reduce wood supply in Kenya. To some extent, agriculture expansion has meant sacrificing

forests, both gazetted and non-gazetted. A good example is in Trans Mara County, where forest

and bush lands are being cleared and replaced with agriculture and tea production. Factors that

have made forestry not competitive enough (like credit incentives) must be addressed if forestry

is to compete with agriculture. This way, farmers will be able to allocate their natural resources

to the most sustainable and productive use, and which might not necessarily be agriculture.

Forestry problems are usually long term in nature and will tend to remain obscure in the short

term, just to appear in compounded nature in the long run. Although agriculture was commonly

considered more important than forestry, now it is clear that forestry supports agriculture and

other sectors that are related to agriculture like livestock, fisheries, energy and rural employment.

Institutional Linkages

There are no elaborate linkages between agriculture and forestry. This means that agriculture

development may at times affect forestry indirectly. Any agricultural intervention that affects

forestry development will, in the final analysis, affect agriculture and thereby, leave people

worse off than before. A good example is the conversion of forests into agricultural land and the

subsequent loss of the catchment’s function. This leads to reduced water flow and less water

being available for irrigation. There is thus need to establish linkages between agriculture and

forestry.

Limited Forestry Investment

Credibility of forestry business among financial institution is usually poor because of lack of

understanding and difficulties involved in valuing and pricing of forest/tree products. Although

financial resources alone are not sufficient to ensure sustainable forestry, without appropriate

financing, the goal of economically efficient, socially balanced and environmentally sound forest

management will be difficult to achieve.

Lack of a National land use policy

Kenya has no comprehensive land-use policy and this has meant that we have allocated our

resources on very narrow land-use considerations. Forestry is an important land use in the

development of Kenya’s economy. Additionally, there are land-use conflicts between forests,

agriculture and urban development. The process of developing a land use policy initiated by the

government in 2011 must be completed.

Institutional weaknesses

A study by Kenya Forests Working Group (KFWG) shows that there is very little marketing of

seedlings done by KFS. Consequently, many seedlings remain overgrown in some KFS nurseries

while there are no seedlings in other stations. This is because there are no mechanisms to transfer

excess seedlings from one station to the other.

The major sources of tree seeds for most of the nurseries in Kenya are from the Kenya Forestry

Seed Centre (KFSC) of the Kenya Forestry Research Institute (KEFRI), local collections from

KFS plantations and farms, purchases from local dealers/traders, and some imported seeds. In

the recent past, many private nurseries have mushroomed. Unfortunately, their supply of seeds

has not been vetted to ensure high quality production of seedlings and suitability of seedlings in

different parts of the country given the importance of tree growing of the seedlings. The future

of forestry in this country will depend greatly on the generic quality of the seed sown. If the

seeds are from poor parent material, there is likelihood of them not meeting the supply

projections of various forest products.

In light of above, there is need to develop standards for seedling production and marketing in

order to enhance seedling quality in the market place and ensure long term sustainability of

seedling production. There is also need to protect the public from uncertified seed sources. Use

of uncertified seed will in the long run impact negatively on the quality of the stock being

established

Lack of appropriate incentives to engage in tree growing

Current policy instruments have not been successful in increasing wood supply in regions where

all wood supply still originates from the natural forest areas (e.g. trust lands and illegally

harvested forests) because wood from these areas is less expensive than wood potentially coming

from managed stands. A good example is presented by charcoal. Most of the charcoal consumed

in Kenya comes from community (trust land) forests almost free of charge. This has an impact in

sustainability of charcoal because there is no incentive for tree farmers to grow and manage trees

for charcoal production.

The cost of doing business in Kenya is high, uncompetitive and very discouraging to investors as

a result of the corporate tax involved. In addition, there are many other taxes involved such as

vehicle and fuel taxes and levies. Policy interventions are therefore urgently needed to address

the issue of incentives.

Absence of a favourable policy on wood energy

The Energy policy has been criticized as putting more emphasis on commercial energy (fossil

and electricity) denying biomass energy the comprehensive treatment it deserves. The policy

does not address the fact that over 70% of households relies on wood fuel and therefore

appropriate fiscal policies are needed to encourage urban households to consider alternative

types of energy in order to contribute to SFM. The policy however acknowledges that wood

energy can be used to accelerate economic empowerment for urban and rural development, and

enhance security of energy supply. Effective policies in wood energy are therefore needed to

enhance wood supply.

Devolution

Concerns have been expressed on how devolution, may be counterproductive if county

governments fail to sustainably manage their forest resources This can happen if they exploit

forest un sustainably in order to fill any financial deficits since the Central Government is only

committed to providing a percentage of their annual budget. The REDD+ Strategy should strive

to address this potential challenge.

CHAPTER 7.0 WAY FORWARD FOR THE REDD+ STRATEGY

The study results indicate that current wood supply quantities cannot meet the current demand

quantities and needs to be improved, raising it higher than demanded quantities, subsequently

reducing chances of forest degradation and deforestation. The study also indicated that there

exists production or supply enhancing opportunities which if made use of can greatly improve

supply. These opportunities have been found to be:-

There exists room for improvement of existing management practices enabling

realization of optimal yielding capacities. There are conceivable governance reforms

towards effective management of forest resources in line with the new constitution.

Currently, the forest policy and bill are undergoing review processes where findings and

recommendations from REDD+ studies could provide bases for review.

There is a high private investors potential that is not fully utilized in the forest sector

which can be tapped to for improvement. Kenya offers exciting investment opportunities

both for local and international investors.

Enhanced participation of stakeholders in forestry under new governance system as

devolution offers room for increased engagement of various stakeholders in governance.

Ready market for forest wood products both locally and in the international markets.

Demand for wood products is high and remains high in the projection period. This

indicates a ready market for current production and that of envisaged increases in wood

production.

The REDD+ strategy should therefore provide management and policy options geared towards

increasing wood supply through:-

Policy review and harmonization to correct negative impacts on wood supply capacities.

Forest sector policies need to be reviewed to conform to existing governance system as

well as identified issues. Spillover of polices from other sectors should also be checked

through policy harmonization. Energy policy is a good example that ignores the costs and

benefits attributable to wood fuel use in the country.

Land policy review to solve land tenure issues especially in communal lands. This is will

create land tenure systems that favour long term enterprises like wood production as

ownership of trees may vary over time.

Development and implementation of forest management plans to ensure sustainability.

This should mainly address community forests management.

Capacity building in forest sector institutions to enhance growing, processing and

marketing of wood products. These institutions should be strengthened in order to

implement research findings on appropriate tree species, good management practices and

relevant technologies.

Creation of incentives in commercial tree growing and management such as a forestry

fund and tax exemptions for forestry tools to encourage tree planting.

Forest and forest produce certification to attract wood export markets for the

environmentally conscious consumers and also attract financial resources through carbon

trading.

Streamlining of gender issues in access and use of wood fuel energy, in adoption of

efficient utilization practices and alternative energy sources.

Viable strategies to ensure sustainable exploitation of trees and shrubs in the wooded

grasslands as they have been found to be continually harvested unsustainably mainly for

charcoal production

Demand of wood products is higher than supply creating room for forest degradation and

deforestation calling for the REDD+ strategy to make use of opportunities that can curb high and

rising wood products demand. These opportunities include:-

Existence of modern efficient wood processing technologies and knowledge diffusion to

improve recovery rates through processing of wood mainly into timber and charcoal.

Availability of information from research findings on effective wood utilization practices

which if adopted would reduce demand quantities.

Existence of alternative products to wood such as wind, solar and biogas energy sources

as well as recycled plastic and concrete made poles.

The REDD+ strategy should create and implement options that will lower and curb rising wood

demand through:-

Review of regulations on timber and charcoal production, processing and distribution

with aim at removing hindrances to trans-county trade in form of barriers, acquiring of

information on advanced efficient technologies and improving road networks to markets.

These interventions should aim at providing means of acquiring relevant production and

market information and technologies which, for instance, might be expensive for local

and small scale processors of wood products.

Continued research and capacity development on efficient utilization practices to lower

wastage.

Provision of incentives to encourage adoption of alternatives to wood usage like a)

energy from electricity, gas, wind and solar energy b) alternative transmission pole using

concrete and metallic poles to wooden ones c) construction materials like metal and,

concrete.

8.0 REFERENCE LIST Buongiorno, J., and S. Zhu. (2012). Calibrating and Updating the Global Forest Products Model

(GFPM version 2012). Staff paper No.77, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology,

University of Wisconsin, Madison. p 29.

Buongiorno, J., S. Zhu, D. Zhang, J.A. Turner, and J. Tomberlin. (2003). The Global Forest

Products Model: Structure, Estimation and Applications. Academic Press, San Diego. pp 301.

Cheboiwo J.K. and Githiomi J.K., (2012). The Status and Dynamics of Forest Products Supply

and Demand in Kenya. A Paper Presented at the First IUFRO-FORNESSA Regional Congress in

Nairobi, Kenya 25-29th

June 2012.

EAWLS and TNRF. (2012). The Trade in Forest Products Between Kenya and Tanzania: A

Report by East African Wild Life Society (EAWLS) in Partnership with Tanzania Natural

Resources Forum (TNRF). Report Prepared for the FAO Forest Law Enforcement, Governance

and Trade Support Programme for African, Caribbean and Pacific Countries (GCP/INT/064/EC)

FAO (2013). FAO Yearbook of Forest Products. FAO Forestry Series No. 46 FAO Statistics

Series No. 202

Githiomi J.K and Oduor N. (2012). Strategies for Sustainable Wood fuel Production in Kenya.

International Journal of applied Science and technology Vol. 2 No. 10. National Forest Products

Research Centre, Kenya Forestry Research Institute. Nairobi, Kenya

Githiomi J. K., Kung’u J. B. and Mugendi D. N. (2012). Analysis of Wood-fuel Supply and

Demand Balance in Kiambu, Thika and Maragwa Districts in Central Kenya

Githiomi J (2010). Micro-level Wood Energy Planning for Kiambu, Thika and Maragwa

Districts; A Case Study for Decentralized Wood Energy Plan in Kenya. PhD Thesis, Department

of Environmental Studies, Kenyatta University, p. 176

Government of Republic of Kenya (2007). Kenya Vision 2030: A Globally Competitive and

prosperous Kenya. Ministry of Planning and National Development and the National Economic

and Social Council. Nairobi, Kenya.

Held C., Techel G. and Windhorst K. (2010). Timber Market Study: Saw-log Production Grant

Scheme. (S.P.G.S)

Kamfor Company Limited (2008). Mt. Kenya East Pilot Project for Natural resources

Management: Wood Biomass Survey in Five River Basins. Ministry of Water and Irrigation.

Nairobi Kenya.

Kenya Forest Service (2009). Strategic Plan 2009-2013. Nairobi, Kenya.

Kenya National Bureaus of Statistics (2012) Economic Survey. Nairobi Kenya.

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (2012). Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey

2005/06 (Revised Edition). Ministry of Planning and National Development. The Regal Press

Kenya Ltd. Nairobi, Kenya

Kenya National Bureaus of Statistics (2010). Kenya National Population and Housing Census

Vol. 1A. Nairobi, Kenya.

Kenya National Bureaus of Statistics (2012) Statistical Abstract. Government Printer, Nairobi,

Kenya.

Kituyi E. (2008) Policy Proposal for Sustainable Consumption and Production of Energy in

Kenya: A Memorandum to the National Environment Policy Committee. Renewable Energy

Technology Assistance Programme, Policy Brief Series No. 2, 2008. Nairobi, Kenya.

Marshall N.T. and Jenkins M. (1994). Hard Times for Hardwood: Natural Timber and the

Timber Trade in Kenya. TRAFFIC International, Cambridge, United Kingdom. Pg 70

Mathu W. (2011). Forest Plantations and Woodlots in Kenya. African Forest Forum Working

Paper Series, Vol.1Issue 13, 2011

Mészáros, C. (1999). The B.P.M.P.D Interior Point Solver for Convex Quadratic Problems:

Optimization Methods and Software 11&12: pp. 431-449.

Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MENR) (1994). Kenya Forestry Master Plan.

Nairobi, Kenya.

Ministry of Energy (2002). Study on Kenya’s Energy Demand, Supply and Policy Strategy for

Households, Small scale Industries and Service Establishments. Kamfor Consultants, Nairobi,

Kenya.

Ministry of Energy (2004). Sessional Paper No. 4 on Energy. Government printer, Nairobi,

Kenya.

Mugo, F.W. (2001) The Role of Wood-fuel Conservation in Sustainable Supply of the Resource:

The Case for Kenya. Paper Presented at Charcoal Stakeholders.

Ngigi A. (2008). Kenya Country Baseline Report and Work-plan: EAC Strategy to Scale-Up

Access to Modern Energy Services.

Parker C., Mitchell A., Trivedi M., Mardas N. (2009) The Little REDD Book.

Prestemon, J.P., S. Zhu, J.A. Turner, J. Buongiorno, and R. Li. (2006). The Forest Product Trade

Impacts of Invasive Species: Modeling Structure and Intervention Tradeoffs. Agricultural and

Resource Economics Review 35(1): 128-143. http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/23572

Rudi Drigo (2005). WISDOM – East Africa. Wood fuel Integrated Supply/ Demand Overview

mapping (WISDOM) Methodology. Spatial Wood fuel Production and Consumption Analysis of

Selected African Countries. FAO- Forestry Department-Wood Energy, Rome Italy.

Solberg, B. Brooks, D. Pajuoja, H. Peck, T J and Wardle, P A. (1996). Long-term Trends and

Prospects in World Supply and Demand for Wood and Implications for Sustainable Forest

Management: A Synthesis. European Forest Institute Research Report 6, European Forest

Institute, Joensuu.

Stephen Mutinda and Murefu Barasa (2005). National Charcoal Survey: Exploring the Potential

for a Sustainable Charcoal Industry in Kenya. (ESD Africa), Nairobi, Kenya.

The Government Printer (2010). The Constitution of Republic of Kenya. Nairobi, Kenya

Theuri, K. (2002) Wood-fuel Policy and Legislation in Kenya; A Paper Presented during the

Regional Workshop on Wood-fuel Policy and Legislation held at ICRAF, Nairobi, Kenya.

Tomberlin, D, Zhu, S, and Buongiorno, J, (1998). The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM):

User’s Manual and Guide to Installation. Global Forest Products Outlook Study Working Paper

GFPOS/WP/02, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy

Turner, J.A., J. Buongiorno, G.P. Horgan, and F.M. Maplesden. (2001). Liberalization of Forest

Products Trade and the New Zealand Forest Sector, 2000-2015: A Global Modeling Approach.

New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science 31(3): p. 320-338.

Whiteman, A. and Brown, C. (1999). International Forestry Review - Vol 1(3), pp 143-152.

WWF-Uganda (2011). Timber Movement and Trade in Democratic Republic of Congo and

Destination Markets in the Region.

9.0 ANNEXES

ANNEX 9.1 TERMS OF REFERENCE

The broad objectives of the study is to carry out an assessment of the existing and potential

demand of the wood products (timber and fuel wood) and supply potential of various forested

ecosystem, including gazetted forest.

Specific objectives:

Establish the current and future demand of products (timber and fuel wood);

Establish the current and projected future supply potential of different forest management

Develop scenario of future demand and supply of wood products under changing social

political and economic environment – including but not limited to price, food security,

economic growth, internal migration and infrastructure development.

Specific tasks

Assessment of existing demand and supply for wood products

Estimate the per capital consumption of fuel wood and round wood timber in Kenya;

Estimate the volume of wood products available from different forest types under different

management regimes;

Estimate aggregate demand and supply for wood products;

Assessment of the demand of various wood products within the country vis a viz domestic,

regional and international supply of various wood products;

Identify the data challenges for such study

Critical analysis of demand and supply scenario

Critical analysis of demand and supply scenario of the various wood products.

Estimate the supply potential of forest for now and projected over the next 20 years;

Identify capacity gaps in improving the supply systems

Identify capacities required to improve the existing supply system and compare them with their

actual capacities:

At individual level

At community level

At organization level

At policy level

Reviewing Policy and legal context

The policy and legal context that have positive influence on production and marketing chain;

The policy and legal context that have negative influence on production and

marketing chain;

Analysis of enabling elements of environment for sustainable production and sales under

different ownership and management regimes;

Map the stakeholders involved in production and market chain in each regime;

Identify gaps in existing legislation, policies, guidelines and directives in creating an

enabling environment for increasing the supply of wood products from different forest

management regimes;

Identify coordination barriers, if any, within government agency and outsiders;

The way forward for National REDD+ strategy

Provide an analysis of the gaps in improving existing practices in wood product supply and

demand;

Recommend key strategic interventions and reforms required to improve production

ANNEX 9.2 FORESTS WITHIN COUNTIES AREA

COUNTY PUBLIC FORESTS COMMUNITY/ PRIVATE FORESTS

Potential Agro forests

NATURAL PLANTATIONS PLANTATIONS NATURAL TREES ON FARMS

Baringo 36,629 16,076 841 251,120 300,676

Bomet 26,817 10 1,701 29,851 230,718

Bungoma 39,082 1,473 2,263 38,359 297,197

Busia - - 1,815 60 161,013

Elgeyo/Marakwet 64,441 11,476 7,298 96,429 251,489

Garisa - 343 1,174 215,930 173,592

Embu 10,740 - - 12,818 -

Homa Bay 2,003 299 5,334 1,170 305,738

Isiolo - - - 110,742 1,342

Kajiado 12,216 1,281 400 153,878 137,646

Kakamega 17,911 6,581 5,838 15,633 299,413

Kericho 32,447 16,944 2,099 40,289 249,966

Kiambu 22,279 10,411 2,916 26,782 218,234

Kilifi 40,911 122 - 87,838 310,466

Kirinyaga 16,274 867 871 15,641 142,795

Kisii - - 3,288 167 128,625

Kisumu - 27 21 1,085 206,696

Kitui 14,733 - - 209,740 129,911

Kwale 24,102 - - 22,859 215,424

Laikipia 24,001 27 758 62,991 207,962

Lamu 2,936 324 - 145,869 114,130

Machakos 112 510 2,786 14,360 117,149

Makueni 5,262 4,188 3,967 44,800 155,658

COUNTY

PUBLIC FORESTS COMMUNITY/ PRIVATE FORESTS

Potential Agro forests

NATURAL PLANTATIONS PLANTATIONS NATURAL TREES ON FARMS

Mandera - - - 55,845 -

Marsabit 10,475 - - 108,032 21,007

Meru 56,747 8,637 3,752 61,993 431,275

Mombasa 918 - 280 251,984

Migori - - 1,509 19,539

Murang'a 14,559 2,436 783 18,841 243,883

Nairobi 458 1,236 2,324 1,312 56,458

Nakuru 33,156 9,718 9,951 50,373 570,349

Nandi 33,851 2,956 8,871 36,867 273,481

Narok 44,098 71 - 285,540 1,139,640

Nyamira - - 6,561 - 83,528

Nyandarua 25,504 9,727 1,943 28,131 304,097

Nyeri 61,745 16,667 3,600 814 282,221

Samburu 147,081 - - 263,088 217,801

Siaya - - 118 1,335 249,179

Tana River 4,804 91 - 195,219 20,730

Tharaka-Nithi 34,341 - - 4,603 87,900

Taita Taveta - - 194 44,498 184,576

Trans-Nzoia 12,472 3,065 11,356 15,183 231,004

Turkana - - - 275,380 25,395

Uasin Gishu 13,925 10,421 805 17,529 333,739

Vihiga 2,800 768 517 4,216 53,995

Wajir - - - 104,769 -

West Pokot 16,446 482 - 79,152 501,632

TOTAL 905,357 138,152 94,146 3,252,922 9,939,255

ANNEX 9.3 FORESTS WITHIN COUNTIES AREA UNDER NATIONAL

PARKS

AREA OF FOREST COVER IN NATIONAL PARKS (HA)

COUNTY FORESTS AREA COUNTY FORESTS AREA

Baringo 4,316 Makueni

55,308

Bungoma 3,231 Mandera

19,413

Elgeyo Marakwet

255 Marsabit

19,048

Garissa 93,343 Meru

52,369

Embu 288 Muranga

2,424

Homa Bay 5,687 Nairobi

869

Isiolo 24,588 Nakuru

2,269

Kajiado 530 Narok

7,293

Kakamega 3,821 Nyandarua

16,025

Kilifi 5,985 Nyeri

87,771

Kirinyaga 629 Samburu

199

Kisumu 63 Tana River

44,322

Kitui 49 Tharaka Nithi

34,875

Kwale 18,581 Taita Taveta

17,261

Laikipia 241 Trans Nzoia

11,536

Lamu 52,685 Turkana

9,178

Machakos 1,647 TOTAL

596,099

ANNEX 9.4 COUNTIES WOOD SUPPLY POTENTIAL

NATIONAL WOOD SUPPLY POTENTIAL

COUNTY

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Baringo

386,667

127,659

524,117

282,217

806,334

1,320,659

Bomet

120,574

52,869

283,145

152,463

435,608

609,051

Bungoma

169,257

70,889

371,147

199,848

570,995

811,141

Busia

78,411

36,939

177,957

95,823

273,779

389,129

Elgeyo

Marakwet

287,210

125,091

423,520

228,049

651,569

1,063,870

Embu

89,566

37,677

202,080

108,812

310,892

438,135

Garisa

86,372

43,186

126,319

68,018

194,337

323,895

Homa Bay

160,032

83,469

350,828

188,907

539,736

783,237

Isiolo

44,887

22,355

66,183

35,637

101,821

169,062

Kajiado

135,722

56,665

245,899

132,407

378,307

570,694

Kakamega

223,985

98,747

379,484

204,338

583,822

906,555

Kericho

293,454

87,498

354,442

190,853

545,295

926,247

Kiambu

216,363

75,001

296,729

159,777

456,506

747,869

Kilifi

172,727

65,519

399,331

215,024

614,355

852,601

Kirinyaga

80,793

32,303

174,404

93,910

268,314

381,410

Kisii

70,402

41,842

152,385

82,053

234,438

346,682

Kisumu

91,614

32,195

216,338

116,489

332,827

456,636

Kitui

140,992

61,932

266,777

143,649

410,426

613,350

Kwale

103,822

37,709

252,098

135,745

387,842

529,374

Laikipia

120,026

49,705

271,984

146,453

418,437

588,168

Lamu

111,539

47,244

206,814

111,361

318,175

476,959

Machakos

73,705

40,363

147,207

79,265

226,472

340,539

Makueni

142,202

66,133

223,314

120,246

343,560

551,895

Mandera

22,338

11,169

32,669

17,591

50,260

83,767

NATIONAL WOOD SUPPLY POTENTIAL

COUNTY

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Marsabit

52,445

24,838

91,231

49,124

140,355

217,637

Meru

310,977

117,599

560,104

301,594

861,699

1,290,275

Migori

119,947

40,522

265,778

143,111

408,889

569,358

Mombasa

8,700

3,062

20,538

11,059

31,597

43,358

Murang'a

140,820

50,399

283,866

152,851

436,717

627,936

Nairobi

46,672

26,481

75,641

40,730

116,372

189,525

Nyamira

64,255

56,792

123,347

66,418

189,765

310,812

Nyandarua

244,151

80,878

381,960

205,671

587,631

912,660

Nyeri

295,554

94,176

389,765

209,873

599,638

989,368

Samburu

200,959

86,121

467,053

251,490

718,544

1,005,624

Siaya

110,543

39,386

261,254

140,675

401,930

551,859

Taita Taveta

27,763

12,233

47,861

25,771

73,632

113,628

Tana River

116,719

52,565

208,668

112,360

321,027

490,312

Tharaka-Nithi

83,779

30,615

216,317

116,478

332,795

447,189

Trans-Nzoia

183,982

119,508

326,973

176,062

503,035

806,525

Turkana

121,313

58,983

187,578

101,003

288,581

468,877

Uasin Gishu

254,658

76,800

395,230

212,816

608,046

939,503

Vihiga

34,781

13,835

65,061

35,033

100,095

148,711

Wajir

41,907

20,954

61,290

33,002

94,292

157,153

West Pokot

256,643

93,760

580,112

312,368

892,480

1,242,883

NATIONAL

WOOD

SUPPLY

POTENTIAL

7,358,446

3,029,655

13,639,884

7,344,553

20,984,437

31,372,538

ANNEX 9.5 NATIONAL AVAILABLE SUPPLY

a) Recovery rates for production of various products from raw forest wood

Conversion efficiency and recovery rates

Products Timber others Poles Fire wood Charcoal

Sawmills

share

Mobile

saws

share

65% 35% 5%

Efficiency 32% 25% 95% 95% 95% 16%

b) Recoverable supply available for the market

RECOVERABLE SUPPLY (available) THROUGH PROCESSING

Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL

Saw mills

Mobile

saws

Total

sawn

wood

Others

(pulp, ply,

carvings)

Total

Timber Fire wood Charcoal

National

Potential Supply

4,561,267

2,456,067 7,017,334

346,080 7,363,414 3,028,907 13,654,022 7,358,717 31,372,531

Recovery rates 0.32 0.25 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.16

Available

National Supply

1,459,605

614,017

2,073,622

328,776

2,402,399

2,877,461

12,971,321

1,177,395

19,428,576

c) Amount of wood going into waste through inefficient conversion technologies

Lost volumes through processing inefficiencies of raw forest wood

Timber Poles

Fire

wood Charcoal Total TOTAL

Supply

Potential 7,363,414

3,028,907

13,654,022

7,358,717

20,980,209

31,405,060

Available

Supply

2,402,399

2,877,461

12,971,321

1,177,395

14,148,716

19,428,576

Lost Volumes 4,961,016

151,445

682,701

6,181,322

6,831,494

11,976,484

ANNEX 9.6 COUNTIES POPULATION

NATIONAL AND COUNTY POPULATION

COUNTIES 2009 NATIONAL CENSUS

AT ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF 0.026

at 2010 at 2011 at 2012

Baringo 555,561 570,006 584,826 600,031

Bomet 891,835 915,023 938,813 963,222

Bungoma 1,375,063 1,410,815 1,447,496 1,485,131

Busia 743,946 763,289 783,134 803,496

Elgeyo Marakwet 369,998 379,618 389,488 399,615

Embu 516,212 529,634 543,404 557,532

Garissa 623,060 639,260 655,880 672,933

Homa Bay 963,794 988,853 1,014,563 1,040,941

Isiolo 143,294 147,020 150,842 154,764

Kajiado 687,312 705,182 723,517 742,328

Kakamega 1,660,651 1,703,828 1,748,127 1,793,579

Kericho 590,690 606,048 621,805 637,972

Kiambu 1,623,282 1,665,487 1,708,790 1,753,219

Kilifi 1,109,735 1,138,588 1,168,191 1,198,564

Kirinyaga 528,054 541,783 555,870 570,322

Kisii 1,152,282 1,182,241 1,212,980 1,244,517

Kisumu 968,909 994,101 1,019,947 1,046,466

Kitui 1,012,709 1,039,039 1,066,054 1,093,772

Kwale 649,931 666,829 684,167 701,955

Laikipia 399,227 409,607 420,257 431,183

Lamu 101,539 104,179 106,888 109,667

Machakos 1,098,584 1,127,147 1,156,453 1,186,521

Makueni 884,527 907,525 931,120 955,329

Mandera 1,025,756 1,052,426 1,079,789 1,107,863

NATIONAL AND COUNTY POPULATION

COUNTIES 2009 NATIONAL CENSUS

AT ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF 0.026

at 2010 at 2011 at 2012

Marsabit 291,166 298,736 306,503 314,473

Meru 1,356,301 1,391,565 1,427,746 1,464,867

Migori 917,170 941,016 965,483 990,585

Mombasa 939,370 963,794 988,852 1,014,562

Murang'a 942,581 967,088 992,232 1,018,030

Nairobi 3,138,369 3,219,967 3,303,686 3,389,582

Nakuru 1,603,325 1,645,011 1,687,782 1,731,664

Nandi 752,965 772,542 792,628 813,237

Narok 850,920 873,044 895,743 919,032

Nyamira 598,252 613,807 629,766 646,139

Nyandarua 596,268 611,771 627,677 643,997

Nyeri 693,558 711,591 730,092 749,074

Samburu 223,947 229,770 235,744 241,873

Siaya 842,304 864,204 886,673 909,727

Taita Taveta 284,657 292,058 299,652 307,443

Tana river 240,075 246,317 252,721 259,292

Tharaka Nithi 365,330 374,829 384,574 394,573

Trans Nzoia 818,757 840,045 861,886 884,295

Turkana 855,399 877,639 900,458 923,870

Uasin Gishu 894,179 917,428 941,281 965,754

Vihiga 554,622 569,042 583,837 599,017

Wajir 661,941 679,151 696,809 714,926

West Pokot 512,690 526,020 539,696 553,729

National Population 38,610,097 39,613,960 40,643,922 41,700,664

ANNEX 9.7 COUNTIES WOOD DEMAND

DEMAND BY COUNTY 2012

PRODUCTS

TIMBER POLES WOOD FUEL TOTALS

FIREWOOD

CHARCOAL Total

PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION

0.1262

0.0338

0.4485

0.3915

0.8400

1

COUNTY POPULATION

Baringo 600,031

75,724

20,281

269,114

234,912

504,026

600,031

Bomet 963,222

121,559

32,557

432,005

377,102

809,107

963,222

Bungoma 1,485,131

187,423

50,197

666,081

581,429

1,247,510

1,485,131

Busia 803,496

101,401

27,158

360,368

314,569

674,936

803,496

Elgeyo Marakwet

399,615

50,431

13,507

179,227

156,449

335,676

399,615

Embu 557,532

70,361

18,845

250,053

218,274

468,327

557,532

Garissa 672,933

84,924

22,745

301,811

263,453

565,264

672,933

Homa Bay 1,040,941

131,367

35,184

466,862

407,529

874,391

1,040,941

Isiolo 154,764

19,531

5,231

69,412

60,590

130,002

154,764

Kajiado 742,328

93,682

25,091

332,934

290,622

623,556

742,328

Kakamega 1,793,579

226,350

60,623

804,420

702,186

1,506,606

1,793,579

Kericho 637,972

80,512

21,563

286,130

249,766

535,897

637,972

Kiambu 1,753,219

221,256

59,259

786,319

686,385

1,472,704

1,753,219

Kilifi 1,198,564

151,259

40,511

537,556

469,238

1,006,794

1,198,564

Kirinyaga 570,322

71,975

19,277

255,790

223,281

479,071

570,322

DEMAND BY COUNTY 2012

PRODUCTS

TIMBER POLES WOOD FUEL

TOTALS

FIREWOOD

CHARCOAL Total

PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION

0.1262

0.0338

0.4485

0.3915

0.8400

1

COUNTY POPULATION

Kisii 1,244,517 157,058

42,065

558,166

487,228

1,045,394

1,244,517

Kisumu 1,046,466 132,064

35,371

469,340

409,691

879,031

1,046,466

Kitui 1,093,772 138,034

36,969

490,557

428,212

918,768

1,093,772

Kwale 701,955

88,587

23,726

314,827

274,815

589,642

701,955

Laikipia 431,183

54,415

14,574

193,386

168,808

362,194

431,183

Lamu 109,667

13,840

3,707

49,186

42,935

92,120

109,667

Machakos 1,186,521

149,739

40,104

532,155

464,523

996,677

1,186,521

Makueni 955,329

120,563

32,290

428,465

374,011

802,477

955,329

Mandera 1,107,863 139,812

37,446

496,877

433,728

930,605

1,107,863

Marsabit 314,473

39,686

10,629

141,041

123,116

264,157

314,473

Meru 1,464,867 184,866

49,513

656,993

573,495

1,230,488

1,464,867

Migori 990,585

125,012

33,482

444,278

387,814

832,092

990,585

Mombasa 1,014,562 128,038

34,292

455,031

397,201

852,232

1,014,562

Murang'a 1,018,030 128,475

34,409

456,587

398,559

855,146

1,018,030

Nairobi 3,389,582 427,765

114,568

1,520,227

1,327,021

2,847,249

3,389,582

Nakuru 1,731,664 218,536

58,530

776,651

677,946

1,454,598

1,731,664

Nandi 813,237

102,630

27,487

364,737

318,382

683,119

813,237

Narok 919,032

115,982

31,063

412,186

359,801

771,987

919,032

Nyamira 646,139

81,543

21,840

289,794

252,964

542,757

646,139

Nyandarua

643,997

81,272

21,767

288,832

252,125

540,957

643,997

Nyeri 749,074

94,533

25,319

335,960

293,263

629,222

749,074

DEMAND BY COUNTY 2012

PRODUCTS

TIMBER POLES WOOD FUEL

TOTALS

FIREWOOD

CHARCOAL Total

PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION

0.1262

0.0338

0.4485

0.3915

0.8400

1

COUNTY POPULATION

Samburu 241,873

30,524

8,175

108,480

94,693

203,173

241,873

Siaya 909,727

114,808

30,749

408,012

356,158

764,170

909,727

Taita Taveta 307,443

38,799

10,392

137,888

120,364

258,252

307,443

Tana river 259,292

32,723

8,764

116,292

101,513

217,805

259,292

Tharaka Nithi

394,573

49,795

13,337

176,966

154,475

331,441

394,573

Trans Nzoia 884,295

111,598

29,889

396,606

346,201

742,808

884,295

Turkana 923,870

116,592

31,227

414,356

361,695

776,051

923,870

Uasin Gishu 965,754

121,878

32,642

433,141

378,093

811,233

965,754

Vihiga 599,017

75,596

20,247

268,659

234,515

503,174

599,017

Wajir 714,926

90,224

24,165

320,645

279,894

600,538

714,926

West Pokot 553,729

69,881

18,716

248,347

216,785

465,132

553,729

TOTALS 41,700,664

5,262,624

1,409,483

18,702,749

16,325,811

35,028,560

41,700,666

ANNEX 9.8 COUNTIES SUPPY AND DEMAND NET BALANCES

BARINGO COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 386,667 127,659 524,117 282,217 806,334 1,320,659

Demand 75,724 20,281 269,114 234,912 504,026 600,031

NET BALANCE 310,943 107,378 255,003 47,305 302,308 720,628

BOMET COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 120,574 52,869 283,145 152,463 435,608 609,051

Demand 121,559 32,557 432,005 377,102 809,107 963,222

NET BALANCE (984) 20,312 (148,860) (224,639) (373,499) (354,171)

BUNGOMA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 169,257 70,889 371,147 199,848 570,995 811,141

Demand 187,423 50,197 666,081 581,429 1,247,510 1,485,131

NET BALANCE (18,166) 20,691 (294,934) (381,580) (676,515) (673,990)

BUSIA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 78,411 36,939 177,957 95,823 273,779 389,129

Demand 101,401 27,158 360,368 314,569 674,936 803,496

NET BALANCE (22,990) 9,781 (182,411) (218,746) (401,157) (414,366)

ELGEYO MARAKWET COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 287,210 125,091 423,520 228,049 651,569 1,063,870

Demand 50,431 13,507 179,227 156,449 335,676 399,615

NET BALANCE 236,778 111,584 244,292 71,600 315,892 664,255

EMBU COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 89,566 37,677 202,080 108,812 310,892 438,135

Demand 70,361 18,845 250,053 218,274 468,327 557,532

NET BALANCE 19,206 18,832 (47,974) (109,462) (157,435) (119,397)

GARISSA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 86,372 43,186 126,319 68,018 194,337 323,895

Demand 84,924 22,745 301,811 263,453 565,264 672,933

NET BALANCE 1,448 20,441 (175,492) (195,435) (370,927) (349,038)

HOMA BAY COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 160,032 83,469 350,828 188,907 539,736 783,237

Demand 131,367 35,184 466,862 407,529 874,391 1,040,941

NET BALANCE 28,665 48,285 (116,034) (218,621) (334,655) (257,705)

ISIOLO COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 44,887 22,355 66,183 35,637 101,821 169,062

Demand 19,531 5,231 69,412 60,590 130,002 154,764

NET BALANCE 25,355 17,124 (3,228) (24,953) (28,181) 14,298

KAJIADO COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 135,722 56,665 245,899 132,407 378,307 570,694

Demand 93,682 25,091 332,934 290,622 623,556 742,328

NET BALANCE 42,040 31,575 (87,035) (158,214) (245,249) (171,634)

KAKAMEGA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 223,985 98,747 379,484 204,338 583,822 906,555

Demand 226,350 60,623 804,420 702,186 1,506,606 1,793,579

NET BALANCE (2,364) 38,124 (424,936) (497,848) (922,784) (887,024)

KERICHO COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 293,454 87,498 354,442 190,853 545,295 926,247

Demand 80,512 21,563 286,130 249,766 535,897 637,972

NET BALANCE 212,942 65,935 68,311 (58,913) 9,398 288,275

KILIFI COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 172,727 65,519 399,331 215,024 614,355 852,601

Demand 151,259 40,511 537,556 469,238 1,006,794 1,198,564

NET BALANCE 21,468 25,007 (138,225) (254,214) (392,439) (345,964)

KIRINYAGA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 80,793 32,303 174,404 93,910 268,314 381,410

Demand 71,975 19,277 255,790 223,281 479,071 570,322

NET BALANCE 8,818 13,026 (81,385) (129,371) (210,757) (188,912)

KISII COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 70,402 41,842 152,385 82,053 234,438 346,682

Demand 157,058 42,065 558,166 487,228 1,045,394 1,244,517

NET BALANCE (86,656) (223) (405,781) (405,175) (810,956) (897,835)

KISUMU COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 91,614 32,195 216,338 116,489 332,827 456,636

Demand 132,064 35,371 469,340 409,691 879,031 1,046,466

NET BALANCE (40,450) (3,176) (253,002) (293,202) (546,204) (589,830)

KITUI COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 140,992 61,932 266,777 143,649 410,426 613,350

Demand 138,034 36,969 490,557 428,212 918,768 1,093,772

NET BALANCE 2,958 24,962 (223,780) (284,563) (508,342) (480,422)

KWALE COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 103,822 37,709 252,098 135,745 387,842 529,374

Demand 88,587 23,726 314,827 274,815 589,642 701,955

NET BALANCE 15,236 13,983 (62,729) (139,071) (201,800) (172,581)

LAIKIPIA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 120,026 49,705 271,984 146,453 418,437 588,168

Demand 54,415 14,574 193,386 168,808 362,194 431,183

NET BALANCE 65,611 35,131 78,598 (22,355) 56,243 156,984

LAMU COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 111,539 47,244 206,814 111,361 318,175 476,959

Demand 13,840 3,707 49,186 42,935 92,120 109,667

NET BALANCE 97,700 43,538 157,628 68,427 226,055 367,292

MACHAKOS COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 73,705 40,363 147,207 79,265 226,472 340,539

Demand 149,739 40,104 532,155 464,523 996,677 1,186,521

NET BALANCE (76,034) 259 (384,948) (385,258) (770,206) (845,982)

MAKUENI COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 142,202 66,133 223,314 120,246 343,560 551,895

Demand 120,563 32,290 428,465 374,011 802,477 955,329

NET BALANCE 21,640 33,843 (205,151) (253,766) (458,917) (403,435)

MANDERA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 22,338 11,169 32,669 17,591 50,260 83,767

Demand 139,812 37,446 496,877 433,728 930,605 1,107,863

NET BALANCE (117,474) (26,277) (464,207) (416,137) (880,345) (1,024,096)

MARSABIT COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 52,445 24,838 91,231 49,124 140,355 217,637

Demand 39,686 10,629 141,041 123,116 264,157 314,473

NET BALANCE 12,759 14,208 (49,810) (73,992) (123,802) (96,835)

MERU COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 310,977 117,599 560,104 301,594 861,699 1,290,275

Demand 184,866 49,513 656,993 573,495 1,230,488 1,464,867

NET BALANCE 126,111 68,087 (96,889) (271,901) (368,790) (174,592)

MIGORI COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 119,947 40,522 265,778 143,111 408,889 569,358

Demand 125,012 33,482 444,278 387,814 832,092 990,585

NET BALANCE (5,065) 7,040 (178,499) (244,703) (423,202) (421,227)

MOMBASA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 8,700 3,062 20,538 11,059 31,597 43,358

Demand 128,038 34,292 455,031 397,201 852,232 1,014,562

NET BALANCE (119,338) (31,231) (434,493) (386,142) (820,636) (971,204)

MURANG'A COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 140,820 50,399 283,866 152,851 436,717 627,936

Demand 128,475 34,409 456,587 398,559 855,146 1,018,030

NET BALANCE 12,344 15,990 (172,721) (245,708) (418,429) (390,095)

NAIROBI COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 46,672 26,481 75,641 40,730 116,372 189,525

Demand 427,765 114,568 1,520,227 1,327,021 2,847,249 3,389,582

NET BALANCE (381,093) (88,087) (1,444,586) (1,286,291) (2,730,877) (3,200,057)

NAKURU COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 403,598 179,908 721,301 388,393 1,109,695 1,693,200

Demand 218,536 58,530 776,651 677,946 1,454,598 1,731,664

NET BALANCE 185,062 121,377 (55,350) (289,553) (344,903) (38,464)

NANDI COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 199,863 113,555 382,465 205,942 588,407 901,825

Demand 102,630 27,487 364,737 318,382 683,119 813,237

NET BALANCE 97,233 86,068 17,728 (112,440) (94,712) 88,589

NAROK COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 615,757 232,527 1,381,324 743,790 2,125,114 2,973,398

Demand 115,982 31,063 412,186 359,801 771,987 919,032

NET BALANCE 499,775 201,463 969,138 383,989 1,353,127 2,054,365

NYAMIRA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 64,255 56,792 123,347 66,418 189,765 310,812

Demand 81,543 21,840 289,794 252,964 542,757 646,139

NET BALANCE (17,287) 34,952 (166,447) (186,546) (352,993) (335,328)

NYANDARUA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 244,151 80,878 381,960 205,671 587,631 912,660

Demand 81,272 21,767 288,832 252,125 540,957 643,997

NET BALANCE 162,879 59,111 93,128 (46,454) 46,674 268,663

NYERI COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 295,554 94,176 389,765 209,873 599,638 989,368

Demand 94,533 25,319 335,960 293,263 629,222 749,074

NET BALANCE 201,021 68,857 53,805 (83,389) (29,584) 240,293

SAMBURU COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 200,959 86,121 467,053 251,490 718,544 1,005,624

Demand 30,524 8,175 108,480 94,693 203,173 241,873

NET BALANCE 170,435 77,946 358,573 156,797 515,371 763,751

SIAYA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 110,543 39,386 261,254 140,675 401,930 551,859

Demand 114,808 30,749 408,012 356,158 764,170 909,727

NET BALANCE (4,265) 8,638 (146,758) (215,483) (362,241) (357,868)

TAITA TAVETA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 27,763 12,233 47,861 25,771 73,632 113,628

Demand 38,799 10,392 137,888 120,364 258,252 307,443

NET BALANCE (11,036) 1,842 (90,027) (94,593) (184,620) (193,814)

TANA RIVER COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 116,719 52,565 208,668 112,360 321,027 490,312

Demand 32,723 8,764 116,292 101,513 217,805 259,292

NET BALANCE 83,997 43,801 92,375 10,847 103,222 231,020

THARAKA NITHI COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 83,779 30,615 216,317 116,478 332,795 447,189

Demand 49,795 13,337 176,966 154,475 331,441 394,573

NET BALANCE 33,984 17,279 39,351 (37,997) 1,353 52,616

TRANS NZOIA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 183,982 119,508 326,973 176,062 503,035 806,525

Demand 111,598 29,889 396,606 346,201 742,808 884,295

NET BALANCE 72,384 89,619 (69,633) (170,139) (239,773) (77,770)

TURKANA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 121,313 58,983 187,578 101,003 288,581 468,877

Demand 116,592 31,227 414,356 361,695 776,051 923,870

NET BALANCE 4,721 27,756 (226,778) (260,692) (487,470) (454,993)

UASIN GISHU COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 254,658 76,800 395,230 212,816 608,046 939,503

Demand 121,878 32,642 433,141 378,093 811,233 965,754

NET BALANCE 132,780 44,157 (37,911) (165,277) (203,188) (26,251)

VIHIGA COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 34,781 13,835 65,061 35,033 100,095 148,711

Demand 75,596 20,247 268,659 234,515 503,174 599,017

NET BALANCE (40,815) (6,412) (203,598) (199,482) (403,080) (450,306)

WAJIR COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 41,907 20,954 61,290 33,002 94,292 157,153

Demand 90,224 24,165 320,645 279,894 600,538 714,926

NET BALANCE (48,316) (3,211) (259,355) (246,892) (506,247) (557,774)

WEST POKOT COUNTY NET BALANCES

Wood products

TOTAL Timber Poles Wood fuel

Firewood Charcoal Total

Supply Potential 256,643 93,760 580,112 312,368 892,480 1,242,883

Demand 69,881 18,716 248,347 216,785 465,132 553,729

NET BALANCE 186,762 75,044 331,765 95,583 427,348 689,154

ANNEX 9.9 COUNTIES WOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND NET BALANCES

SUMMARY

COUNTIES NET BALANCES

COUNTY

Wood products

Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL

Firewood Charcoal Total

Baringo 310,943

107,378

255,003

47,305 302,308

720,628

Bomet (984)

20,312

(148,860)

(224,639)

(373,499)

(354,171)

Bungoma (18,166)

20,691

(294,934)

(381,580)

(676,515)

(673,990)

Busia (22,990)

9,781

(182,411)

(218,746)

(401,157)

(414,366)

Elgeyo Marakwet 236,778

111,584

244,292

71,600 315,892

664,255

Embu 19,206 18,832

(47,974)

(109,462)

(157,435)

(119,397)

Garissa 1,448 20,441

(175,492)

(195,435)

(370,927)

(349,038)

Homa Bay 28,665 48,285

(116,034)

(218,621)

(334,655)

(257,705)

Isiolo 25,355 17,124

(3,228)

(24,953)

(28,181)

14,298

Kajiado 42,040 31,575

(87,035)

(158,214)

(245,249)

(171,634)

Kakamega (2,364)

38,124

(424,936)

(497,848)

(922,784)

(887,024)

Kericho 212,942

65,935 68,311

(58,913)

9,398

288,275

Kiambu (4,894)

15,742

(489,590)

(526,608)

(1,016,198)

(1,005,349)

Kilifi 21,468 25,007

(138,225)

(254,214)

(392,439)

(345,964)

Kirinyaga 8,818 13,026

(81,385)

(129,371)

(210,757)

(188,912)

Kisii (86,656)

(223)

(405,781)

(405,175)

(810,956)

(897,835)

Kisumu (40,450)

(3,176)

(253,002)

(293,202)

(546,204)

(589,830)

Kitui 2,958 24,962

(223,780)

(284,563)

(508,342)

(480,422)

Kwale 15,236 13,983

(62,729)

(139,071)

(201,800)

(172,581)

Laikipia 65,611 35,131 78,598

(22,355)

56,243

156,984

Lamu 97,700 43,538

157,628

68,427 226,055

367,292

Machakos (76,034)

259

(384,948)

(385,258)

(770,206)

(845,982)

Makueni 21,640 33,843

(205,151)

(253,766)

(458,917)

(403,435)

COUNTIES NET BALANCES

COUNTY

Wood products

Timber Poles Wood fuel TOTAL

Firewood Charcoal Total

Mandera (117,474) (26,277) (464,207)

(416,137) (880,345) (1,024,096)

Marsabit 12,759 14,208 (49,810) (73,992) (123,802) (96,835)

Meru 126,111 68,087 (96,889) (271,901) (368,790) (174,592)

Migori (5,065) 7,040 (178,499)

(244,703) (423,202) (421,227)

Mombasa (119,338) (31,231) (434,493)

(386,142) (820,636) (971,204)

Murang'a 12,344 15,990 (172,721) (245,708) (418,429) (390,095)

Nairobi (381,093) (88,087) (1,444,586) (1,286,291) (2,730,877) (3,200,057)

Nakuru 185,062 121,377 (55,350) (289,553) (344,903) (38,464)

Nandi 97,233 86,068 17,728 (112,440) (94,712) 88,589

Narok 499,775 201,463 969,138 383,989 1,353,127 2,054,365

Nyamira (17,287) 34,952 (166,447) (186,546) (352,993) (335,328)

Nyandarua 162,879 59,111 93,128 (46,454) 46,674 268,663

Nyeri 201,021 68,857 53,805 (83,389) (29,584) 240,293

Samburu 170,435 77,946 358,573 156,797 515,371 763,751

Siaya (4,265) 8,638 (146,758)

(215,483) (362,241) (357,868)

Taita Taveta (11,036) 1,842 (90,027) (94,593) (184,620) (193,814)

Tana river 83,997 43,801 92,375 10,847 103,222 231,020

Tharaka Nithi 33,984 17,279 39,351 (37,997) 1,353 52,616

Trans Nzoia 72,384 89,619 (69,633) (170,139) (239,773) (77,770)

Turkana 4,721 27,756 (226,778) (260,692) (487,470) (454,993)

Uasin Gishu 132,780 44,157 (37,911) (165,277) (203,188) (26,251)

Vihiga (40,815) (6,412) (203,598) (199,482) (403,080) (450,306)

Wajir (48,316) (3,211) (259,355) (246,892) (506,247) (557,774)

West Pokot 186,762 75,044 331,765 95,583 427,348 689,154

TOTALS 2,095,823 1,620,172 (5,062,864) (8,981,257) (14,044,121) (10,328,126)

ANNEX 10.1 INSTITUTIONAL ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES

Roles and Responsibility of Institutions involved in wood Supply and Demand and Proposed

Recommendations to enhance Supply

Responsible

institution/stake

holder

Relevant

wood

product

Roles and

Responsibilities

relevant to wood

supply and demand

Institutional Gap

Assessment

Recommendations

Ministry of

Environment,

water and

Natural

Resources

All types of

products

Policy and

regulation in

management of

environment,

water and natural

resources

Overlapping

departmental

mandates as a result of

the recent (2013)

merging of the three

Ministries (water,

environment and

forestry and wildlife

ministries)

Streamlining of

departmental

mandates

Ministry of

Energy

Fuel wood Policy and

regulation in

management of

renewable and

non-

Different studies

have indicated

the potential

supply of wood

products from a

hectare of a

plantation forest.

The tendency to

convert wood for

energy to

charcoal is

estimated to be at

35%, hence

volume for fire

wood and that of

charcoal is

distributed at 65%

and 35%

respectively.

renewable

resources

Lack of coordination

between the ministry

with institutions

responsibilities in

control of wood fuel

production and

movement such as KFS

and Local Authorities,

e.g. licensing of wood

and charcoal vendors

by the Ministry of

Energy without

verifiable information

on source,

Overlaps in institutional

mandates, e.g.

promotion of wood fuel

by the Ministry, a role

of also played by KFS

and Ministry of

Agriculture

Streaming of

institutional

mandates

Ministry of

Agriculture

All types of

products

Promotion of

agriculture and

farm forestry with

a view of

attaining the 10%

forest cover

The Agriculture (Farm

Forestry) Rules 2009

requirements of 10%

are not being

implemented.

Strengthening

of the Ministry

to enhance

implementation

of the Farm

Forestry

regulations

Responsible

institution/stake

holder

Relevant

wood

product

Roles and

Responsibilities

relevant to wood

supply and demand

Institutional Gap

Assessment

Recommendations

Kenya Forest

(KFS)

All types of

products

Formulate

policies,

guidelines

regarding the

management,

conservation and

utilisation of all

types of forests

Manage all state

forests

Provide forest

extension

services,

education and

training

Enforcing Forests

Act and rules and

regulations

gazetted under

the Act

Issue charcoal

production

license, timber

harvesting

permits,

concession

licenses,

transport permits

and

charcoal/timber

export and import

permits

Suspension/revoc

ation of licenses if

the holder

contravenes the

conditions set

Difficulties in

undertaking regulatory,

statutory and extension

services due to poor

infrastructure and

inadequate capacity

Multiple licensing

authorities (for forest

produce extraction and

use, e.g. charcoal).

KFS does not have

adequate capacity to

manage registered

private forests, e.g.

management of Witu

Forest has been a

challenge

Lack of standards to

define a mismanaged

forest by KFS

Development of forest

management plans is

expensive and the level

of their

implementation is low

despite management

agreements having

been entered into with

CFAs

Review of

institutional

mandates in

Forests Act 2005

with a view of

focusing of core

mandates and

delegating

mandates such

as extensive

services to

Ministry of

Agriculture

Review of

charcoal

licensing

systems

Implementation

of standards on

mismanaged

forest

Funding of

preparation of

forest

management

plans (currently

addressed in the

Forests Bill

2013)

Kenya Forestry

Research

Institute (KEFRI)

All types of

products

KEFRI strategic

plan is to

undertake more

discipline-

oriented and

prioritised

research

programmes, and

develop a flexible

Some of limitations of

KEFRI include low

funding, weak capacity

to publish and

disseminate research

findings and

inadequate capacity to

meet increasing

demand for tree seed

Capacity

building/enhan

cement of

KEFRI to fulfil

its mandate

Carry out

research on

appropriate

tree species to

Responsible

institution/stake

holder

Relevant

wood

product

Roles and

Responsibilities

relevant to wood

supply and demand

Institutional Gap

Assessment

Recommendations

problem oriented

research structure

based on core

research

programmes in

farm forestry,

natural forests,

plantation forests

and dry land

forestry.

enhance supply

National

Environment

Management

Authority

(NEMA)

All types of

products

Supervision and

co-ordination

over all matters

relating to the

environment and

the principal

instrument of

Government in

the

implementation

of all policies

relating to

environment.

Limited capacity and

resources (capital and

human) to implement its

large mandates

Weak communication tools

and information sharing

mechanisms

Review of

NEMA

mandates

Strengthening

of NEMA

Charcoal

Producer

Associations

(CPAs)

Charcoal To encourage

sustainable

charcoal

production by

members

Ensure that

members

implement

reforestation and

conservation

plans for

sustainable

charcoal

production

Develop and

implement a code

of practice for the

purposes of self-

regulation

Assist KFS in

enforcing the

provisions of

Some of the CPAs

issuing certificate of

origin to charcoal

producers on behalf of

KFS do not ascertain

source. Most charcoal

in Kwale is coming from

private ranches, trust

lands and some in

Lunga Lunga from

Tanzania. This is in a

way legitimising an

illegality.

Most areas harvested

by CPAs cannot sustain

charcoal production in

future.

The Charcoal

rules should be

reviewed with a

view of

ensuring that

the objectives

of regulation

and creating

order in the

industry as well

as sustainability

are achieved.

CPAs should

only be allowed

to operate

within certain

levels of

sustainable

yields

Responsible

institution/stake

holder

Relevant

wood

product

Roles and

Responsibilities

relevant to wood

supply and demand

Institutional Gap

Assessment

Recommendations

Forests Act 2005

related to

sustainable

charcoal

production,

transportation

and marketing

Community

Forest

Associations

(CFAs)

All types of

products

To protect,

conserve and

manage forests

through approved

forest

management

plans and

KFS/CFA

management

agreement

To formulate and

implement forest

programmes

Assisting KFS in

enforcement of

the Forests Act,

2005

CFAs have been very

weak and despite

several management

agreements entered

with KFS, there has

been little progress in

Participatory Forest

Management in Kenya

Capacity

building of CFAs

Licensee (Saw

millers)

Timber Private investor

Undertakes

logging

Marketing and

sales

Customer

care/service and

distribution

Lack of capacity and

appropriate technology

Unsustainable supply of

the product

Low recovery in

conversion

Capacity

upgrading of

sawmills for

efficiency

Timber yard

merchants

Timber Marketing & sales

of timber

Unsustainable timber

supplies

Poor code of ethics

contributing to trade in

illegal products

Lack of appropriate

knowledge in business

management

Establish code

of ethics

Individual

farmers

All types of

wood

Establish forest stands

in form of woodlots

and boundary planting

Lack of capacity &

awareness

Lack of incentives to

Training and

capacity

building

Responsible

institution/stake

holder

Relevant

wood

product

Roles and

Responsibilities

relevant to wood

supply and demand

Institutional Gap

Assessment

Recommendations

for domestic use and

sale.

grow/take care of

forest vegetation

Lack of tenure (tree

and land)

Inadequate farm sizes

Lack of technical

knowhow of what to

grow and where

Inadequate financial

resources

Existing policies

support relatively

larger legally identified

groups but not

individuals

Provision of

incentives to

encourage

growing of

trees

Forming tree

growing groups

to achieve

bigger

production

areas and

economical

land sizes for

wood

Land titles or

ownership

agreements

Technical

knowledge and

training in tree

growing, what

to grow and

when

production

Adequate

financial

resource to

enable

individuals

venture in tree

growing Policies

that support

individuals in

tree growing

Nyayo Tea Zone

Development

Corporation

Fuel wood Creation of tea buffer

zones to contain

encroachment into

natural forests

Lack of capacity (human

and equipment)

No forest management

experience

Capacity

enhancement

on tree

management

Private sector

(e.g Kakuzi, Tea

growing

companies)

All type of

products

Establish forest stands

for fuel wood

production for curing

tea but also sell for

timber production

Competition among

private sector layers and

communities in

partnerships with KFS

Competition with illegal

forest products

Capacity

enhancement

on tree

management

Responsible

institution/stake

holder

Relevant

wood

product

Roles and

Responsibilities

relevant to wood

supply and demand

Institutional Gap

Assessment

Recommendations

Competition of forestry

with other land uses

Low capacity for many

small

enterprises/ventures

Customers (end

user of the

product)

All types of

products

Purchase timber

products

Embrace value

addition

Differing tastes or

preferences &

technological changes

Embrace &

promote value

addition in

wood product

Custom

authorities

All types of

products

Issue export/import

permit(s)

Poor coordination with

other agencies such as

KFS

Overlapping mandates

with KFS

Harmonization

of mandates

Kenya

Investment

Authority (KIA)

All types of

products

Assist foreign and

local investors

and potential

investors by

issuing

investment

certificates;

assisting in

obtaining any

necessary licences

and permits;

Providing

information,

including

information on

investment

opportunities or

sources of capital.

Promote, both

locally and

internationally,

the opportunities

for investment in

Kenya;

Inadequate promotion

of forestry as a potential

investment

Establishment

of linkages

between KIA,

KFS and other

agencies

National

Investment

Council (NIC)

Timber,

poles and

paper

Advise the

Government and

government

agencies on ways

to increase

investment and

economic growth

Inadequate promotion

of forestry as a potential

investment

Establishment

of linkages

between NIC,

KFS and other

agencies

Responsible

institution/stake

holder

Relevant

wood

product

Roles and

Responsibilities

relevant to wood

supply and demand

Institutional Gap

Assessment

Recommendations

in Kenya; and

Promote co-

operation

between the

public and private

sectors in the

formulation and

implementation

of government

policies relating

to the economy

and investment.

National Council

for Population

and

Development

Assessing the

impacts of

population and

making

appropriate

recommendations

Analysing

population issues

and developing

policies relating to

population

Population data has not

been adequately used in

forestry projections and

in planning

Annual reviews

of wood

demand and

supply based on

population data

and country

demands

Kenya Forestry

College (KFC)

All types of

products

KFC is an

institution that

trains at sub-

professional level

and is the main

trainer of

technical cadres

for the Forest

Department.

Training on on-farm

forestry and PFM is still

inadequate

Review of the

KFC training

programme

Universities/colle

ges

All types of

products

High Level

forestry training

Training on on-farm

forestry and PFM is still

inadequate

Review of the

KFC training

programme

NGOs/CBOs Research, advocacy,

awareness and

promotion of local

communities

engagement in forest

management and

conservation

NGOS have gained some

credibility in advocacy

and awareness creation

and have strong links

with local communities.

Support

government

efforts in

formulation,

financing,

implementation

, monitoring

and evaluation

of tree

investments

Responsible

institution/stake

holder

Relevant

wood

product

Roles and

Responsibilities

relevant to wood

supply and demand

Institutional Gap

Assessment

Recommendations

Mass media All types of

products

Produce and serialize

tree programmes in

relation to increased

demand of wood

products as a result of

infrastructural

development,

increase in population

etc.

Inadequate reporting on

wood demands and

requirements with

heavy focus towards

deforestation

Training in

environmental

reporting

Parliament All types of

products

Enact relevant policies

and laws

- Enact relevant

policies and

laws to address

wood demand

and supply

issues

County

Government

All types of

products

Maintain a viable

system of green

and open spaces

for a functioning

eco-system;

Work towards the

achievement and

maintenance of a

tree cover of at

least ten per cent

of the land area

of Kenya as

provided in

Article 69 of the

Constitution; and

Prepare an

integrated

development plan

The recently formed

County Governments

have limited capacity

(financial and human)

and have no forest

management expertise

Development of

County Action

Plans taking

into account

the

constitutional

requirements

of 10% forest

cover.

Kenya Forest

Water Tower

Agency

All types of

products

Overseeing the

conservation of water

towers

Not fully operational

Possible conflicts with

government

implementing agencies

such as KWS and KFS

likely

Operationalizati

on of the

agency

National Land

Commission

(NLC)

All types of

products

Provide incentives

for communities

and individuals to

invest in income

generating

natural resource

NLC is very new

institution and its

effectiveness in

delivering its mandate

will depend on political

good will. Currently,

Adequate

funding for NLC

Responsible

institution/stake

holder

Relevant

wood

product

Roles and

Responsibilities

relevant to wood

supply and demand

Institutional Gap

Assessment

Recommendations

management

programmes.

Provide measures

to facilitate the

access, use and

co-management

of forests, water

and other

resources by

communities who

have customary

rights to these

resources.

NLC has been provided

with a low annual

budget of Kshs 241

Million shilling for

2012/2013