analysis of gse- final master

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INTRODUCTION The stock market in the economy of any country is very vital and plays a pivotal role in the growth of industries and trade. The performance of the stock market is of great importance to both local and foreign investors as they expect good returns on their investment. It serves as the source for companies to raise additional capital for expansion. The liquidity that an exchange provides by the stock market affords investors the ability to quickly and easily sell securities. This is an attractive feature of investing in stocks and bonds, compared to other less liquid investments such as real estate. History has shown that the price of shares and other assets is an important part of the dynamics of economic activity, and can influence or be an indicator of social mood. Rising share prices, for instance, tend to be associated with increased business investment and vice versa. Share prices also affect the wealth of households and their consumption. The government on the other hand also benefits as foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the country increases due to the performance of the stock market since it is a reflection of the performance of the listed companies. Therefore, governments through the central banks are more interested in the control and behavior of the stock market and, in general, the smooth operation of financial system functions. BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

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Page 1: Analysis of Gse- Final Master

INTRODUCTION

The stock market in the economy of any country is very vital and plays a pivotal role in the growth

of industries and trade. The performance of the stock market is of great importance to both local

and foreign investors as they expect good returns on their investment. It serves as the source for

companies to raise additional capital for expansion. The liquidity that an exchange provides by the

stock market affords investors the ability to quickly and easily sell securities. This is an attractive

feature of investing in stocks and bonds, compared to other less liquid investments such as real

estate.

History has shown that the price of shares and other assets is an important part of the dynamics of

economic activity, and can influence or be an indicator of social mood. Rising share prices, for

instance, tend to be associated with increased business investment and vice versa. Share prices also

affect the wealth of households and their consumption. The government on the other hand also

benefits as foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the country increases due to the performance of the

stock market since it is a reflection of the performance of the listed companies.

Therefore, governments through the central banks are more interested in the control and behavior

of the stock market and, in general, the smooth operation of financial system functions.

BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

The importance of allowing the “invisible hands” of an economy to operate as stipulated by the

economist, Adam Smith, has been adopted by most countries. In these countries, governments are

into the production of public goods while private goods are produced by individual investors.

Research has shown that countries which practice this system have high potential of economic

growth. It is, therefore, the role of governments to develop policies that would help local

businesses (private sector) to increase their production at a lower cost in order to promote the

development and growth of the country.

In this regard, the governments in their quest to promote the private sector has been formulating

policies to attract investors both locally and internationally by providing favorable environment for

them. These policies include the restructuring of the financial market.Financial markets have

become vital tools for sustaining economies especially the developing countries. The growth in the

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stock market gives an indication of the increase in demand of financial securities and lower cost of

investing in international financial markets.

In Ghana, even though the financial market (Ghana Stock Exchange) was established in 1989

under the Ghana’s Company Code 1963 (Act 179) as a private company, it became operational in

1990. The idea of its establishment dates back to 1968. The stock exchange was given recognition

as an authorized Stock Exchange under the Stock Exchange Act of 1971 (Act 348). The status of

the exchange changed to a public limited company in 1994. Since the establishment of the Stock

Exchange, 37 companies have been listed as at April, 2012. The Exchange realized a market

capitalization of GH¢17.9 billion in 2008. This showed an increase of 44% compared to GH¢12.4

billion in 2007 and declined to 11% (GH¢15.9 billion) in 2009.

Statement of the problem

According to Greenwood and Smith (1996), stock markets are relevant in mobilizing savings,

hence facilitating investment into most productive technologies. Companies take advantage of

their efficiency to explore the market for profit.

Financial securities provide companies with long term funds to expand their operations. According

to Osei (2004), lack of long term investment capital is the major constraint to the market growth

and development throughout Sub Saharan Africa and not only limited to Ghana.

The establishment of the Ghana Stock Exchange is expected to increase liquidity of financial

assets, make possible diversification of risk and increase savings to promote economic growth and

development. To achieve these objectives, the Ghana Stock Exchange seeks to among others

1. Intensify its efforts in increasing listings and promote fund mobilization.

2. Encourage mobilization of State Owned Enterprises (SOE’s) on the exchange.

3. To encourage the listing of corporate and government debts instruments; and develop new

products such as collective investment schemes.

4. Automation of trading, clearing, settlement and depository system to raise the efficiency of

the securities market for all users.

The study, therefore, seeks to analyse the performance of Ghana Stock Exchange from 1990-2011.

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Performance of Ghana Stock Exchange

Trading commenced on November 12, 1990 and after more than a decade of operations, the

exchange has carved for itself a prominent niche in the financial market by providing the

leadership in the development of Ghana’s capital market and serving as a pivot for long term

capital mobilization. It has moved the fortunes of not only the national economy, but the finances

of the companies listed. The Ghana Stock Exchange all-share index now the GSE-composite index

(GSE-CI) is used as a measure of performance of the Ghana Stock Exchange. Between 1990 and

2009, the index increased from 77.25 points to 5,572.34 points.

In 1993, the GSE emerged as the 6th best performing emerging stock market with an impressive

return of 114%. In 1994, a study conducted by Birinyi Associates, a research group in the USA;

the GSE came out as the best performing market among all the emerging markets with a gain of

124%. It’s the key performance indicator, the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) all-Share Index,

gained 91.33 per cent in 2004 thereby surpassing most of the world emerging again.

Relative to its frog leap gains in 2008 based on performances in previous years from 1993 to 2007,

the index in subsequent years thereafter recorded some poor performance with a loss of 47%. The

GSE in 2008, notwithstanding the global financial crisis performed well; on recording 10,431.64

points, a gain of 58%. In 2009, GSE was one of the worst in performers in the world losing 47%.In

February 18, 2011, the stock inched down to 0.86 points for the fourth straight session to close at

1,048.78 points.

The stock faced serious down turns in 2009 against the background of 2008 being one of the best

years. The effect of the global financial crisis which began to be felt in the fourth quarter of 2008

and the fact that in 2009, the Exchange also effectively began migrating from paper certification to

electronic book entry securities under the new automated Trading System was the reason for the

market going through a shake-up in 2009. That process naturally requires time since investors

needed to be convinced to get on board. The rise in local interest rate thus making money market

instruments relatively more attractive was also a contributory factor.

At the end of trading the stock market review for the week ended March 16, 2012 showed

improvement in activity, with a total of 1,300,979 shares valued at GH¢1,141,822 being traded, as

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compared to 747,434 shares valued at GH¢821,183 the previous week. This represents 74.06%

increase in the total volume traded and a 39.05% increase in total value traded. Three equities:

SIC, UTB and GCB accounted for 48.94% of the total volume traded whilst GCB, EBG and FML

accounted for 57.23% of the value traded.

The equity market ended the week with 6 gainers and 3 losers. GGBL, the top gainer increased by

5.73% to close at GH¢1.66. On the other hand, ALW, lost 8.33% of its value to close at GH¢0.11.

The price changes within the week brought the GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) down whilst the

Strategic African Securities Index (SASI), the SAS Manufacturing Index (SAS-MI) and the SAS

Financial Index (SAS-FI) went up. The GSE-CI lost 2.69 points to close at 1,032.99. This

represents a year to-date gain of 6.60%, whilst the SAS Index gained 11.84 points to close at

1,898.54. This represents a year-to-date gain of 7.80%.

POLITICAL SITUATIONS IN GHANA

 One of the major differences between efficient and inefficient market is the political situation in

the country. Political instability sometimes results in stock market being manipulated by the

government which will cause the inefficiency of the stock market.

Government control of the stock market in many instances results in the slow pace of information

made available to the public. This makes the decision making process difficult and inaccurate due

to the information available. Prices will reflect neither the true value of the securities nor other

information in the market resulting in an inefficient stock market. Political instability makes it

difficult to value assets in the future, since unexpected policy decisions may quickly change the

valuation of a currency. In such situations, the exchange rates tend to weaken and be more volatile.

At the same time, the willingness of investors to have their money invested in the Ghana stock

exchange or the capital market fall sharply, because you do not know exactly which politics will be

conducted in the future.

There is the need for a politically stable situation as a condition precedent for markets to be

efficient.In his chronological summary of major events in the financial development of Ghana,

Sam Mensah, Ph.D (1997) stipulates that financial markets in Ghana have evolved in fairly

identifiable stages.

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Financial sector development is the interactive outcome of a relationship between regulators and

the regulated institutions. The exploration of this interaction presents a better platform to juxtapose

historical developments and potential changes in a proper perspective.

The development of a financial system and its regulatory regime may be viewed as a change

resulting through a process of action and reaction by opposing forces.

The idea that regulation of a financial institution is dialectic – one of a cyclical interaction between

opposing political and economic forces was introduced by Professor Kane in the late 1970s.In the

years following independence, the economic and political environment changed significantly.

However, the regulatory structure of the financial system did not change.

According Kane, the existence of operating rules that are excessively restrictive or benefit a

protected class provides strong incentives for individuals in the regulated institutions to find

loopholes. In Ghana’s case, the post-independence era was dominated by a strong central bank

with control over foreign exchange, interest rates and credit allocations, and an array of state-

owned banking institutions. At the same time, changes in the economy reflected in high inflation

rates, low economic growth tended render the initial set of arguments increasing outdated. The

post-independence there was coupled with economic changes as well as underperformance by the

banking sector resulting from excessive intervention by the government in the allocation of credit.

Bureaucratic control of the credit allocation process severely compromised the quality of credit

assessment and fraud and corruption became pervasive. These developments were part of the

antithesis leading to the regulatory adjustments of the 1980s. The synthesis which resulted from

the weak financial structures of the planned economy period was the Financial Sector Adjustment

Program (FINSAP). Launched in 1988, FINSAP provided for a comprehensive restructuring of the

financial sector.

HISTORY OF THE FINANCIAL MARKET IN GHANA

Financial markets in Ghana have evolved in fairly identifiable stages as follows:

1) The Colonial Era (up to 1960)

2) The Centrally Planned and Closed Economy Period (1960-83)

3) The Structural Adjustment and Transition Period (1983-present)

4) The Post Adjustment Period

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During the colonial era, the colonial government restricted itself to monetary stability, monetary

growth was tied to export performance. Banking was established with the object of providing

banking services for the British trading enterprises and the British Colonial Administration.

Between 1912 –1957, the West African Currency Board (WACB) operated as a central bank

operating a Sterling Exchange Standard through a guaranteed convertibility of the West African

pound to sterling. There were no exchange controls. The West African Currency Board only

operated as a bureau exchanging West African currency for sterling and vice versa and accounting

for such activities. It invested its surpluses in approved sterling securities.

The financial system played a passive and limited role in promoting economic development. The

primary function of the financial system was to provide essential currency infrastructure. The

system put in place led to the transformation of the colonial economy from a barter system to a

modern currency system. There were virtually no non-bank financial institutions. While there were

insurance companies, they were established by British companies, trading houses and banks to

support their trade with the U.K. The focus of the industry was generally on commercial risk

coverage. There was no life insurance industry. In terms of the attributes of an effective financial

system, this system only satisfied the first attribute, that is, the need for an efficient medium of

exchange or a monetary system. By 1957, there were three banks: The Colonial bank (now

Barclays Bank), the British Bank of West Africa and the Bank of Gold Coast. At independence,

the Bank of Gold Coast was renamed to the Ghana Commercial Bank and a central bank, the Bank

of Ghana started operations in July 1957.

In the immediate post-independence era (between 1960- 1983), the government of Kwame

Nkrumah adopted a socialist development strategy under which the state was to be predominant in

all aspects of economic policymaking and implementation. This period was characterized by:

1) A comprehensive system of import licensing was instituted in November 1961.

2) The Exchange Control Act of 1961 imposed over economic activities in Ghana.

3) Quantitative restrictions on interest rates.

4) Forced lending programs including requirements for banks to lend to sectors of the economy

which were considered priority sectors by the government.

By 1983, large state-owned enterprises had run up large overdrafts with the state banking

institutions, most of which had become non-performing. The sharp deterioration in Ghana’s

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economy in the 1970s put severe pressures on the financial system. The 1970s were marked by low

average GDP growth of about 2.6%, high inflation which peaked at 123% in 1983, low levels of

savings, declining international trade. The Government adopted an economic recovery program

which included; devaluation of the currency, dismantling of most price and distribution controls,

elimination of many subsidies, broadening of the tax base, improvement of tax collection and

restoration of macroeconomic balance.

From 1987, there was a gradual liberalization of the financial system. All sectoral credit

allocations were phased out, with the last target for agriculture abolished in 1990. Interest rate

controls were gradually relaxed and full liberalization was achieved in February 1988. In

November 1990, the Bank of Ghana decontrolled all bank charges and fees. A foreign exchange

auction was introduced in 1986 and the establishment of forex bureaus were permitted in 1988. By

the late 1980s, the World Bank and the Ghana Government had agreed that a reform and

restructuring of the financial system was indispensable to a successful economic recovery

programme.

With technical and financial assistance from the IDA, the government embarked upon a Financial

Sector Reform Program in 1988. The objectives of the programme were: to undertake the

restructuring of financially distressed banks; to enhance the soundness of the banking system

through an improved regulatory and supervisory framework; to improve the mobilization and

allocation of financial resources – including the development of money and capital markets. These

objectives were supported by the IDA through a Financial Sector Adjustment Credit of

US$100million.

THE STRUCTURE OF THE GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE

The Exchange is governed by a Council with representation from Licensed Dealing Members,

Listed Companies, the banks, Insurance Companies, Money Market and the general public.  The

Managing Director of the Exchange is an ex-officio member.  The council sets the policies of the

Exchange and its functions include preventing fraud and malpractices, maintaining good order

among members, regulating stock market business and granting listing.

Membership:

The Ghana Stock Exchange as a public company limited by guarantee has no owners or

shareholders as such, but members are either corporate bodies or individuals.There are three

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categories of members, namely Licensed Dealing Members, Associate Members and Government

Securities Dealers (PDs). An LDM is a corporate body licensed by the Exchange to deal in all

securities. An Associate member is an individual or corporate body which has satisfied the

Exchange's membership requirements but is not licensed to deal in securities. A PD is a corporate

body, which is approved by the Bank of Ghana and registered by the Exchange to deal only in

government securities.

Regulatory Framework:

GSE operates within a set of Rules, including membership, listing, trading, clearing & settlement

and depository. These are collectively referred to as the GSE Rule Book.

GSE Securities Depository (GSD):

The GSE has set up a wholly -owned subsidiary called GSE Securities Depository Company

Limited. The key objective is to offer depository services to complement the Exchange's

automated trading, clearing and settlement systems.

Surveillance:

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) carries out regular inspection of Licensed

Dealing Members' operations and books. Brokers are also required to submit returns to GSE.

ROLE OF GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE IN THE GHANAIAN ECONOMY

Raising capital

The Stock Exchange provide companies with the facility to raise capital for expansion through

selling shares to the investing public.

Governments also, at various levels may decide to borrow money to finance infrastructure projects

by selling another category of securities known as bonds. These bonds can be raised through the

Stock Exchange whereby members of the public buy them, thus loaning money to the government.

Barometer of the economy

At the stock exchange, share prices rise and fall depending, largely, on market forces. Share prices

tend to rise or remain stable when companies and the economy in general show signs of stability

and growth. An economic recession, depression, or financial crisis could eventually lead to a stock

market crash. Therefore the movement of share prices and in general of the stock indexes can be

an indicator of the general trend in the economy.

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Profit sharing

Both casual and professional stock investors, as large as institutional investors or as small as an

ordinary middle class family, through dividends and stock price increases that may result in capital

gains, share in the wealth of profitable businesses. Unprofitable and troubled businesses may result

in capital losses for shareholders.

Corporate governance

By having a wide and varied scope of owners, companies generally tend to improve management

standards and efficiency to satisfy the demands of these shareholders, and the more stringent rules

for public corporations imposed by public stock exchanges and the government.

Despite this claim, there has been considerable slippage in corporate governance on the part of

some public companies such as Enron Corporation (2001), Adelphia (2002) etc. When poor

financial, ethical or managerial records are known by the stock investors, the stock and the

company tend to lose value. In the stock exchanges, shareholders of underperforming firms are

often penalized by significant share price decline, and they tend as well to dismiss incompetent

management teams.

IMPORTANCE OF STOCK MARKET TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The primary function of the stock market is that it provides the platform for listed companies to

raise funds as it supports the growth of the industry and commerce in the country.

According to Alile (1984), the stock market serves as a veritable tool in the mobilization and

allocation of savings among competing uses which are critical to the economic growth and

efficiency of the economy.

Levine (1991) showed a positive relation between financial stock market and economic growth by

issuing new financial resources to the firms. The stock market facilitates higher investments and

the allocation of capital, and indirectly the economic growth.

An efficient stock market contributes to attract more investment by financing productive projects

that lead to economic growth, mobilize domestic savings, allocate capital proficiency, reduce risk

by diversifying, and facilitate exchange of goods and services (Mishkin 2001; and Caporale et al,

2004).

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CHALLENGES FACED BY THE GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE

The challenges that were established based on the survey and interviews are:

Liquidity: The relative ease with which people get in and out of the market is very low.

Investors have to wait for a long time before they can sell out.

Efficiency: The market’s response to information is generally slow. Sometimes, the market

does not respond to any kind of information at all. In other developed market, the stock

market is a barometer of the economy. However, due to information inefficiency, the GSE

does not necessarily reflect or mirror the economy.

Inadequate listed companies: The companies currently listed on the bourse are very

relatively low (currently 36). This limits investor’s choice of investments in Ghana as each

listed company has one product to offer.

Limited number of securities: The number of securities listed are inadequate, compared

to the number of investors. The GSE currently has 35 equities, 3 bonds which rarely trade

anyway. People do not have a lot of options on entering the market.

Small float of shares: To compound the situation of limited number of securities, the bulk

of issued shares are held by non-resident Ghanaian investors, institutional investors and

parents companies who do rarely trade. The average floats of shares available for trade is

about 25%. This makes the market very dormant and illiquid.

Non-performing companies: To make matters worse, majority of the listed companies are

not doing well at all in terms of profits and share price appreciation. Over the years, just

about 12 companies consistently release exciting results and drive the market. This further

limits investment options.

High cost of listing: Most of the issuer and operators have complained that the cost of

listing is generally very expensive in Ghana. The cost of going public is about 10%-15% of

the IPO proceeds. In advance countries it cost less than 1%. This comes with annual listing

fees, massive disclosures and very strict regulation. Thus, many companies not using the

GSE to raise long-term capital.

Outdated concept of doing business: Most Ghanaian firms do not want to share their

company. They prefer to own a “rat rather than half of an elephant”. Most companies are

borrowing at high costs from banks rather than using equity. This probably explains why

most Ghanaian companies do not expand outside the borders of Ghana.

Concentration of investment banks in Accra: Some refer to the GSE as an “Accra

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Exchange” not a Ghana Exchange since all the brokerage firms are concentrated in Accra.

Until the automation, people had to travel to Accra in order to buy or sell their securities.

This obviously limited the participation of investors outside Accra.

Interest rate anomaly: In Ghana, the government seems more focused on short-term bills

as the short-term instruments have a higher yield than long-term instruments of comparable

credit quality. This has resulted in an inverted yield curve. The inverted yield negatively

affects the GSE as more investors buy the short-term bills rather than invest in long-term

securities on the GSE.

Non existence of Credit rating agencies: Credit rating helps to give a signal of what is

good and relatively safe to invest in. Since independence, there has not been any credit

rating agency in Ghana. As a result, domestic investors find it difficult to get information to

assess the credit worthiness of borrowers. Until 2003, Ghana had not been rated by any

international credit rating agency like Standard and Poor’s (S&P). Hence, foreign investors

could not have confidence to trade in Ghana’s capital markets. Such agencies are still non-

existent in Ghana.

Lack of education: Most Ghanaians do not understand the whole concept of buying shares

on the GSE and very few also appreciate long-term investing. Educating the general public

will therefore involve significant costs to bring the average Ghanaian to the desired level ie.

from creating awareness to providing information for sound decision-making.

Inadequate capitalization of LDM’s: The licensed dealing members (LDM’s) of the GSE

are not adequately capitalized to counter weight the huge foreign investments.

THE EMPERICAL LITERATURE

The importance of stock/ financial markets performance cannot be downplayed since it runs

through the political, economic and social arenas of the economy. It is important not only to the

investor but to the government as well. The financial system plays an important role in full-filling

the needs of investors by mobilizing funds and transforming them into an asset (Ndikumana, 2001)

in such a way that, an efficient financial system allocates the resources efficiently through its

financial intermediaries, which eventually identify the most productive investment opportunities.

According to Lee (1998), stock markets provide investors the opportunity to trade, invest,

speculate, hedge and arbitrage. In addition they serve as a mechanism for price discovery and

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information dissemination while providing vehicles for raising finances for companies. Stock

markets are used to implement privatization programs, and they often play an important role in the

development of emerging economies. He argued that if an economy does not have efficient

financial market there is always the risk that scarce capital could be channeled to non-productive

investments as opposed to productive ones, leading to wastage of resources and economic decline.

Cited from Paramati and Gupta (2011), India has adopted modern strategies to promote its stock

market development since late 1980s and this has become more sophisticated after the introduction

of economic reforms of 1991. These reforms brought expansion in terms of number of listed

companies, number of shareholders in the market and market capitalization; this has resulted in

India to become one of the most active and leading markets among all developing countries of the

world (Nagaishi, 1999).

Research has shown that stock/ financial market performance is influenced by the level of

information disseminated to the public or information cost, government and economic activities.

Other factors that affect the stock markets performance include, availability of other investments

assets, change in composition of investors, and markets sentiments among other factors

(Mendelson, 1976).

Reduction of the search and information costs of transaction at the stock market is key to

facilitating growth of the market. Search costs presents explicit costs such as money spent to

advertise, the desire to sell or purchase a financial asset, and implicit costs such as the value of the

time spent in locating counter party. The presence of an organized stock market reduces search and

information costs (Fabbozi 1995).

BASE THEORY- (EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS)

Market efficiency refers to a condition, in which current prices reflect all the publicly available

information about a security. The basic idea underlying market efficiency is that competition will

drive all information into the price quickly. In the financial market, the maximum price that

investors are willing to pay for a financial asset is actually the current value of future cash

payments that discounted at a higher rate to compensate us for the uncertainty in the cash flow

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projections. Therefore what investors are trading is actually information as a "commodity" in

financial market for the future cash flows and information about the degree of certainty.

The Theory relating to Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) has been consented as one of the cornerstones of modern

financial economics. Efficient market emerges when new information is quickly incorporated into

the price so that price becomes information. In other words the current market price reflects all

available information. Under these conditions the current market price in any financial market

could be the best-unbiased estimate of the value of the investment. Consequently, three versions of

EMH are being distinguished depending on the level of available information.

WEAK FORM EMH

The weak form EMH stipulates that current asset prices already reflect past price and volume

information. The information contained in the past sequence of prices of a security is fully

reflected in the current market price of that security. It is named weak form because the security

prices are the most publicly and easily accessible pieces of information. It implies that no one

should be able to outperform the market using something that "everybody else knows". Yet, there

are still numbers of financial researchers who are studying the past stock price series and trading

volume data in attempt to generate profit. This technique, also called technical analysis, is asserted

by EMH as useless for predicting future price changes.

SEMI-STRONG FORM EMH

The semi strong form EMH states that all publicly available information is similarly already

incorporated into asset prices. In other words, all publicly available information is fully reflected in

a security's current market price. The public information states not only past prices but also data

reported in a company's financial statements, announcement, economic factors and others. It also

implies that no one should be able to outperform the market using something that "everybody else

knows". This indicates that a company's financial statements are of no use in forecasting future

price movements and securing high investment returns.

STRONG FORM EMH

The strong form EMH stipulates that private information or insider information is quickly

incorporated by market prices and therefore cannot be used to reap abnormal trading profits. Thus,

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all information, whether public or private, is fully reflected in a security's current market price.

This means, even the company's management (insider) are not able to make gains from inside

information they hold. They are not able to take the advantage to profit from information such as

take over decision which has been made ten minutes ago.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

In order to better appreciate the analysis of Ghana stock exchange performance and its impact on

the economy , there is a need to understand the Economic, Political, Technological and

Sociological Impact on the country.

The growth of stocks in the global economy and its impact directly correlates the impact of such

growths in developing countries like Ghana.

Over the past ten years, the total value of stocks listed in all of the world's stock markets, rose from

$4.7 trillion to $15.2 trillion, while the share of total world capitalization represented by the

emerging markets jumped from less than 4 percent to almost 13 percent.

These impacts mentioned above will be further explained in subsequent paragraphs.

Political Impact:

This refers to government’s regulation, policies and other laws impacting the stock market of the

country. Whilst extending the stock exchange’s tax holiday for five years, the exemption from

capital gain tax has also been extended for further five years to promote investment and deepen

activities on stock the exchange.

Tax exemptions by the government is a political intervention that reliefs listed companies and the

stock markets and make it more attractive for prospective and existing investors.

Apart from tax reliefs, policies and regulations by the government can either make or unmake the

stock market. A regulatory body like The Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) provides for

the functions of the commission, the establishment of stock markets, the licensing of stock

brokers/dealers and investment advisers, Unitrust and Mutual Funds, registers of interest in

securities and mode of conduct of security businesses.

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The political impact on the stock market is inevitable since it creates the platform for the

operations of the stock market

Economic Impact:

Inflation

The GSE is affected by numerous economic factors such as Inflation, Employment, Market

liquidity and interest rates are among the major economic indicators affecting the GSE. Inflation

reflects the situation where the demand for goods and services exceed their supply and it’s

characterized by high prices. People may hedge against inflation by investing in stocks which

invariably tends to boom activities of the GSE.

In the long run, a company’s revenue and earnings in stock should increase at the same pace as

inflation. However, the impact of inflation is on the total earnings of companies since total

earnings could be overstated. High transaction cost, information cost etc. may also hamper the

activities of the stock exchange as investors may be discouraged from venturing into stocks due to

this phenomenon.

Market liquidity

For stock markets in developing countries like Ghana, most investors prefer liquid markets where

they can maintain control of their investments over a long period and where equity can be easily

sold quickly and cheaply if they need access to their savings or want to alter their portfolios.

With this stock market liquidity trait, investors will be attracted to advance funds into the Ghana

stock market since the risk of readily obtaining their equity is less thereby enhancing the growth of

the Ghanaian economy.

However, this could also have some adverse impact on the economy since risk averse investors

would quickly sell all their shares at the least fall in share prices or any panic. This causes a

reduction in total shares traded on the country’s stock market leading to slow growth of the

economy as well.

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Employment

The state and rate of employment has its economic impact on the GSE since individuals can only

invest if there is a source of income or funds.

This is considered an essential economic factor that influences the GSE since a considerable size

of the population would devote their finance into stocks where there is secured employment and

more so where there is enough to save .

Social Impact:

This basically refers to the impact society has on the Ghana stock exchange. It can be confirmed

that activities in our social settings indirectly impacts listed companies. This is evidenced through

the provision of the necessary human resource for such listed industries like the mining, oil ,and

banking sector.The Human resource factor is inevitable when it comes industry operations since

the GSE and its supporting listed companies cannot operate in a vacuum. The essence of social

impact is underscored by appreciative gestures of such companies through activities like Corporate

social responsibilities, charity donations, sponsorships etc. out of profits from the stock market.

For instance, the offer of Tullow’s shares on the Ghana stock exchange gives Ghanaian investors

the opportunity to own shares in Tullow as well as benefit from the company's operations across its

global portfolio of assets.

Education cannot be ruled out when determining the social impact on the GSE. Patronage of the

GSE can be enhanced through effective education. It would be virtually difficult to attract

prospective investors if the essence of stock trading is not effectively communicated to them.

Technological Impact:

For a successful global market there is a need to obtain a platform that can support the operations

of such markets like the GSE.The operations of the stock market cannot thrive in isolation, without

the needed sophisticated technology. The nature of the stock exchange market drives the evolving

technology used.

It was at the end of 1986 on the London stock exchange when the stock exchange Automated

Quotation System (AQS) replaced the trading floor where brokers had to meet face to face to trade.

Introduction of the AQS improved the volume of transactions by 150% average per day.

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Technology has given the GSE stock trading a completely enhanced facelift which keeps

improving as and when system revision is done.

Inability of a country’s trading software to execute such basic functions like website security

protection, website update, reporting tools, capacity to absorb increased volumes, speed to support

agro trading etc. can affect the confidence of investors and also affect performance and efficiency

of the stock market.

This makes it essential for the Ghana stock exchange to be abreast with such technology as they

impact each other directly.

LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK

The legal and regulatory framework of the Ghana Stock Exchange is the structure that organizes

and supervises how trading of stock markets operate on the exchange. It outlines the rights and

obligations of market participants and spells out guidelines for equity in trading on a reliable

marketplace between investors and issuers or companies.

The regulatory system of the securities markets in general is an intricate web of institutions and

laws. Constitutionally three institutions regulate the securities market. They are:

1. Bank of Ghana

2. Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC)

3. Register –general of companies

The Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) is the apex regulatory body that supervises the

securities market under the SECURITIES INDUSTRY LAW, PNDCL 333 (1993) and its

functions include;

1. Maintaining surveillance over the securities business to ensure orderly, fair and equitable

dealing in securities.

2. Registering, licensing, authorizing a stock exchange, investment advisors, and securities

dealers.

3. Protecting the integrity of the securities market against any abuse arising from the practice

of insider trading.

The Ghana stock exchange is part of the securities market. It is a public company which is limited

by guarantee and has no owners or shareholders as such, but members are either corporate bodies

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or individuals. They are classified as Self Regulatory Organization (SRO) and thus establish rules

that govern:

member firms’ conduct

setting qualification standards for professionals in the industry,

examining members for their financial and operational condition and compliance with the

rules,

investigating alleged violations of security laws,

disciplining violators and responding to enquiries from investors and member.

The SRO responsibility of GSE is reflected in two fold that regulate membership and

transactions of GSE.

Membership regulation: There are two membership requirements

Associate membership (open to any law abiding individual, corporate or professional

body)

Licensed dealing Members (open to companies incorporated under the Companies Code

1963(Act 179) and partnerships incorporated under the Incorporated private partnership.

They only have the right to deal in securities on the GSE.

GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE TRADING SYSTEM

The GSE embarked on a project to automate its trading system in 2007. Three trading processes

were automated namely; the electronic system, electronic clearing and settlement system and the

Depository. The depository became operational in November 2008. Its benefit was to enable

investors to open securities accounts to deposit their shares. Investors can also transfer, pledge and

access security information in a more efficient manner from the depository.

The new trading system makes it possible for stockbrokers to trade from three different levels

namely; the exchange floor, dealers offices and through the Wireless Access Network (WAN) or

secured internet Virtual Private Network (VPN). Remote trading started on June 01, 2009.

Stockbrokers can trade directly from their offices without going to the trading floor .The

automated trading as well as the clearing and settlement system went online on March 2009.

PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT

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The GSE uses two indices, namely the GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) and the GSE Financial

Stocks Index (GSE-FSI).

GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI)

The calculation of the GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) is based on the volume weighted average

closing price of all listed stocks. All ordinary shares listed on GSE are included in the GSE-CI at

total market capitalization, with the exception of those of listed companies which have shares

listed on other markets. The GSE-CI is a market capitalization weighted index, i.e. each

constituent is given weight according to its market capitalization. The base date for the GSE-CI is

December 31, 2010 and the base index value is 1000.

GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE-FSI)

This index have its constituents as listed stocks from the financial sector including banking and

insurance sector stocks. All ordinary shares of the financial stocks listed on GSE are included in

the GSE-FSI at total market capitalization, except for those of stocks which are listed on other

markets.

SWOT ANALYSIS- STRENGHTS

The Ghana stock Exchange like other financial institutions serves as a veritable tool in the

mobilization and allocation of savings among competing uses which are critical to the growth and

efficiency of the economy (Alile, 1984).

It controls the granting of quotations on the securities market in respect of bonds, shares and other

securities of any company, corporation, government, municipality, local authority or other body

corporate; The GSE also co-ordinates the stock dealing activities of members and facilitate the

exchange of information including prices of securities listed for their mutual advantages and for

the benefit of their clients. Other researchers have showed that the stock market development

positively influences the economic growth (Korajczyk, 1996, Levine and Zervos, 1998).

WEAKNESS

The Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) has authority to monitor timely submission of financial

statements and enforce compliance with disclosure requirements by listed companies. However its

Listing Department though responsible lacks capacity to effectively monitor making the

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enforcement weak. Available sanctions for noncompliance include written warning letters and

suspension of a listing; no monetary penalties have been legislated. No company has yet been

suspended for a violation or non-compliance.

Other factors which has stifled the development of the GSE relates to the absence of a strong and

active domestic investor base, led by institutional investors such as pension funds and insurance

companies. Clearing, Settlement and Trade systems as well as trading infrastructure should be

upgraded.

OPPORTUNITY

The listing of the first Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on Ghana Stock Exchange provides

investors the opportunity to own units tied to the value of their underlying assets. Exchange Traded

Funds are securities traded on exchanges like shares but linked to the combined value of a

portfolio or basket of underlying assets such as shares, commodities or bonds.

In line with the strategic plan, aimed to develop and introduce new products and improve on the

back of new listings on the bourse as part of a commercialization process, the Exchange is working

with ABSA Capital to list the commodity-backed New Gold ETF, which is already listed on the

Johannesburg and Botswana Stock exchanges. ETFs would attract and diversify the investment

options available to investors, enhance liquidity and also boost the revenue base of the Exchange.

Since the ETFs would be traded under a different regime, current trading rules on the Exchange

would not apply hence the need to draw new rules. In addition; there would be continuous

stakeholders’ consultations and education to deepen understanding of the ETFs.

The target of the GSE is a total of 50 listed companies up from the current 34. With the launch of

an alternative market smaller companies will be enabled to raise capital. The target of 50 listed

companies is to make the market look additionally viable and interesting. Furthermore, the GSE

recently signed an MOU with Fidelity Capital Partners Limited (FCPL) in which the organisations

intend to work to promote the increase and next listing of companies, especially SMEs on the

exchange. Under the MOU, the exchange will be promoted to investee companies of FCPL, thus

enhancing the success of SME listings on the GSE.

THREATS

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The Ghana stock exchange is plagued with some challenges. Notable among these is political and

economic instability.

On the macroeconomic front, the economy of Ghana has been characterized by high inflation, high

interest rate and large exchange rates wings as stated in recent past by the Bank of Ghana

Monetary Policy report: (vol 3 no 2: 20081). When these indicators or variables tend to be high,

they discourage the investors from investing in a specific country because they can‘t diversify the

risk. Investors are also are not sure of recouping their investment. Another problem facing the GSE

is due to the stock exchange itself. According to Benimadhu (2003), among the exchange specific

issues affecting stock markets in Africa are low level of liquidity, few listed companies and the

small size of the exchange as well as efficiency. We assume that the stock exchanges in Africa

face the same challenges. The following points need to be noted carefully: Investor confidence,

fluctuation in interest rates, high rate of inflation and instability of the cedi made it difficult to

predict the future of the capital market.

RISK ANALYSIS

The risk of the GSE is common with all stock exchanges globally with variability in it measure.

Two types of risk are present in most investments: systematic risk and unsystematic risk.

Systematic Risk

Systematic risk can be thought of as macro risk. For example, political events, natural disasters,

and other fairly unpredictable events could at any time affect the stock price of many stock market

assets. Systematic risk is very difficult to avoid, although professional investors /brokers try to

anticipate these events because predicting them can be very profitable.

Unsystematic Risk

Unlike systematic risk, unsystematic risk can be avoided. These risks stems from specific events

that would not affect the stock market generally, but would affect individual stocks. They include

fraud or allegations of fraud, workers strike, recalls, mergers and other events. These risks are

specific to either industries or even specific firms, and therefore, this risk is not impossible to

avoid. Diversification, the strategy of investing in many different types of assets, reduces

unsystematic risk to the investor on the GSE.

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Credit Risk

Credit risk is the risk that a company on the stock exchange will be unable to deal with its

obligations, and therefore their asset will become unprofitable. So long as the firm has adequate

cash flows (visible by using the statement of cash flows), credit risk is not a major asset concern.

Political Risk

Political risk refers to the risk that the country will change the rules under which its financial

system operates in some way that affects that country's native financial instruments and assets;

country risk is also known as political risk. This type of risk is more common in stock exchanges

of developing countries as the GSE.

Market Risk

Market risk is risk associated with daily fluctuations in stock price. Market risk is also referred to

as volatility; assets with high volatility (market risk) are likely to fluctuate greatly in stock price,

whereas assets with low volatility are more immune to fast, large price changes. Volatility is

important in the stock world for a variety of reasons. The more volatile a stock, the more potential

for profit there may exist (which is why some investors focus on identifying growth stocks, which

have the capability for explosive growth), but at the same time, there is also the possibility of loss.

The less volatile the investment, the less on average the return will be to that investment. Stocks

are the most volatile of financial assets.

Liquidity Risk

The final type of risk associated with stock market transactions is liquidity risk. Liquidity risk

refers to risk that the stock will not be able to be traded fast enough to avoid a loss or capitalize on

a potential profit. Liquidity risk can be avoided by making sure the daily volume of share trading is

above a certain level, so that the investor can be more assured that the desired trades will go

through in a timely manner.

THE FUTURE OF THE GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE

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The Ghana stock exchange provides a perfect platform and an enabling environment to thrive and

flourish organizations by giving them access to raise the needed funds. Investors also obtain

liquidity, fair capital safety and diversity of their investment on the Ghana stock exchange.

The economy of Ghana has seen sustained and unbroken economic growth since the early 1990’s.

The influx of banks, mining companies and subsequent oil finds tend to widen the growing

opportunities of the GSE with respect to the economy. The economic prospect of the Ghana stock

exchange is evident in the potential growth of listed and non listed companies and their propensity

to acquire more capital to support their operations.

Ghana with a population of over 23million, 27 banks and 1.2 million account holders shows that

only 5.2% are into the sector leaving more room for savings and investments in this area. The

Ghana Stock Exchange is no exception as it is the only stock exchange in the country .

One major plan of the GSE is to improve the market via a three year plan covering 2011 to 2013

with measures to increase size and liquidity through generating incomes from other sources like

data sales which is expected to rise by 5% in 2013 whilst reducing trading commission by 0.5%.

GSE is also developing a second tier of stock for the Small and medium Scale Enterprises on a

separate junior market to enable them list since they don’t meet the listing requirement like the

large corporations.

With regards to Law reforms, SEC has developed a five year plan to review the regulations and

functions of the GSE.

Education and Policies should be put in place to encourage Ghanaians and foreigners alike to

invest in stocks and bonds enhancing future participation on the GSE.

Another way to enhance the status of Ghana Stock Exchange is to promote equity financing in

Ghana. The current situation of company ownership of shares as against individual ownership

should be reviewed to give more opportunity to equity financing.

The GSE must lower the cost of listing to encourage the SME’s to use the capital market to raise

capital. The government must use the GSE for its future divestiture programs as it will get more

companies listed to enhance the level of activity. Through legislation, companies that exploit

natural resources can be mandated to list on the GSE to give the local people the opportunity to

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take decisions.

Analysis of Ghana Stock Exchange Performance

The Ghana Stock Exchange had for the past years experienced ups and downs in the performance. Analysis by the team revealed that the performance of the exchange is influenced by both micro and macro variables.

Micro factors Dividend payout policy by the listed companies. Small number of securities available on the stock exchange. Institutional investors not trading Availability of natural resources or raw materials

Macro factors Rising interest rate Inflation Productivity level (GDP) of the country Political situation

The growth of the stock exchange in 2006 and 2008 can be attributed to the growth in the national economy. In 2006, Ghana’s economy grew to 6.4% and hit one of the highest growths ever in 2008 by recording 7.3% in the West Africa sub-region. It also recorded the best returns of 58.1% globally.

The exploration of and its export contributed to a 5.9% growth in the country in 2010, which influenced the performance of GSE by a 32.25% increase in its share index. Ghana Stock Exchange performance can also be attributed to the renewed interest in the country from new investors who fled the stock exchange during the 2009 global financial crisis.

In 2005, the exchange experienced a market return of -29.85% due to a fall in inflation from 18.18% to 15.48%. Investors withdrew the investments from the stock exchange into a more lucrative investment opportunity that would earn them more income.

The Ghana Stock Exchange ended the year 2009 as the least performing market in Africa with a drop of negative 46.58% in the GSE All-Share index.

The year also experienced a rise in local interest rate which made the money market instruments relatively more attractive. Investors moved from the security market to the money market by increasing deposits.The poor performance of the exchange resulted from the effect of the global financial crisis which began to be felt in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the fact that in 2009, the Exchange also effectively began migrating

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from paper certification to electronic book entry securities under our new automated Trading System. That process naturally requires time since investors needed to be convinced to get on board.

REFERENCE

Greenwood, J and Smith B., 1996. “Financial Markets in Development and the Development of Financial markets” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 21: pp145-181

Journal of Money, Investment and Banking ISSN 1450-288X Issue 5 (2008)

Owusu-Nantwi, Victor and John K. M. Kuwornu, Analyzing the effect of macroeconomic variables on stock market returns: Evidence from Ghana. Journal of Economics and International Finance Vol. 3(11), pp. 605-615, 7 October, 2011.

Sam Mensah (September 8-20, 1997), Financial Markets and Institutions: Ghana’s Experience. A Presentation at the International Programme on Capital Markets and Portfolio Management in India.

http://www.gse.com.gh

http://www.worldbank.org/fandd