Maximum Minimum Area Ascot 24

Yes Selected Choose intake Secondary 2

5% #N/A

1. Expected new dwellings in the area 4. List of developments in draft BLP55% 45% 0% 14% 35% 5% 0% 0% 0% 7% 12% 17% 9% 0%

2016 Site Reference Address F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 Total

TOTAL 0 197 478 74 2 0 0 92 160 233 126 0 1,362Secondary - Dwellings on windfall/other sites - 0 22 79 57 3 0 0 11 45 97 65 0 379

#N/A SAAC00024b HA10 Ascot centre regeneration area (Ascot rejuvenation) HA10 0 19 19 0 0 0 0 0 19 18 0 0 75

SAAC00024c HA10 Land South of High St Ascot (west of Hermitage Parade, Ascot Green West)HA10 0 17 17 0 0 0 0 0 17 17 17 0 85

SAAC00024d HA10 Land South of High St Ascot (Land to rear of Hermitage Parade and Red House Car Park High Street OR fields behind parade of shops and mews houses, Ascot Green East)HA10 0 18 10 0 0 0 0 0 18 18 18 0 82

SAAC00143 HA10 Shorts Recycling Centre St George's Lane Ascot ('Landfill Site St Georges Lane Ascot SL5 7ET)HA10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 22 0 50

SAAC00064 HA30 Ascot Station Car Park Station Hill HA30 0 5 25 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35

SAAC00163 HA31 Englemere Lodge London Road Ascot SL5 8DE HA31 0 0 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 10

SAAC00037a HA32 Heatherwood Hospital London Road Ascot SL5 8AA HA32 0 60 100 0 0 0 0 70 20 0 0 0 250

SAAC00082A HA33 Silwood Park London Road HA33 0 0 19 0 0 0 0 11 15 30 0 0 75

SDSD00246 HA34 Sunningdale Park Larch Avenue HA34 0 41 182 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 230

SASS00108 HA35 Ascot Gasholder site (main part of site) Former British Gas Site Bridge Road Ascot (Ascot Holder Station Bridge Road Ascot SL5 9NL)HA35 0 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 23 14 0 0 53

SDSD00250 HA36 Land At Wensleydale Broomhall Lane And From Stuarts To Old Boundary House And Car Park London Road Sunningdale Ascot (Broomhall car park opportunity)HA36 0 6 9 0 -1 0 0 0 0 8 6 0 28

SDSD00158b HA37 The White House London Road Sunningdale Ascot SL5 0EYHA37 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 -1 0 10

Dwelling Type 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2056/57F0 0 0 -19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 #N/A

F1 1 -1 0 4 1 1 0 4 5 8 14 38 25 26 19 18 16 4 4 4 4 4 4 #N/AF2 11 32 10 10 7 13 8 16 8 11 52 90 78 75 31 31 30 6 9 6 7 7 13 #N/A

F3 4 0 2 8 -3 3 21 10 10 10 2 1 7 3 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 4 #N/AF4 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 #N/A

F5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 #N/AH1 0 2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 #N/AH2 1 -2 -1 8 -1 0 3 4 0 0 0 13 13 15 15 15 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 #N/AH3 -1 -1 -4 21 6 2 -3 0 1 7 18 21 14 14 17 18 15 6 6 7 8 6 5 #N/A

H4 -4 1 5 18 9 2 4 0 6 19 17 23 22 26 27 17 14 11 9 10 9 9 10 #N/AH5 -2 -5 -13 1 5 18 32 9 16 2 6 7 11 11 10 8 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 #N/AH6 10 8 5 3 11 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 #N/A

20 34 -16 73 35 48 67 43 46 58 109 192 170 170 120 108 93 29 30 30 30 29 38 #N/A

67 110 156 214 323 515 685 855 975 1,083 1,176 1,205 1,235 1,265 1,295 1,324 1,362 #N/A

< < < < < < < < < < < << < < < < << << < < < < << < < < < <

< < < < << < <

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2. Resulting Secondary School pupil yield from expected new dwellings in area

Subarea Yield

Ascot Borough

Bisham and Cookham Maidenhead

Central Maidenhead Maidenhead

Datchet and Wraysbury Borough

East Windsor Windsor

Eton Windsor

Maidenhead Villages Maidenhead

North East Maidenhead Maidenhead

North West Maidenhead Maidenhead

South East Maidenhead Maidenhead

South West Maidenhead Maidenhead

Windsor North Windsor

Windsor South Windsor

Windsor Villages Windsor

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2056/57 Max

3 7 12 12 13 19 21 35 50 73 99 133 162 194 220 249 273 296 319

0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5

1 1 2 2 2 5 5 14 12 19 18 21 22 26 32 36 36 31 36

0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2

2036/37 +46

3. Impact on cohort sizes for Secondary School intakes based on scenario 2032/33

+1.5

0.0

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2056/57 Max

263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 263 408.49784 263 263

1 1 2 2 2 5 5 14 12 19 18 21 22 26 32 36 36 31 36

13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15

277 278 278 278 278 281 281 291 289 296 295 298 299 304 310 314 314 308 314

9.2 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.7 9.6 9.9 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.5 10.3 10.5

261 258 269 249 253 278 243

274 271 282 261 266 292 255

-0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 -1.3 -1.5

1.252381

-0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.7 0.5

-4 -1 -12 92032/33

-26 -25 -28 -29 -34 -40 -44

BLP

Year of Construction

Secondary School Pupil Yield Cumulative (Total, for all year groups):

-7 -8 -8 -8 -8 -11 -11 -21 -19

Analysis of housing development planned for Ascot Secondary (Page 1)Existing Demand BB103 guidelines

Potential Nursery Compact sites

Surplus Place %

Annual Total

Cumulative increase from 2016/17

Borough Local Plan Major Sites and Opportunity Area

SitesPlotted against the years in which completions are expected.

Secondary School Pupil Yield Cumulative (Total Forms of Entry):

Secondary School Pupil Yield Cumulative at intake:

Secondary School Pupil Yield Cumulative at intake (Forms of Entry):

Flatsincluding Traveller pitches.

No. refers to bedrooms.

HousesNo. refers to bedrooms.

Maximum Existing Demand:

Additional places needed for 5% Surplus:

15Surplus no.

max

Maximum Existing Demand + Cumulative Pupil Yield at intake + 5% Surplus:

Maximum Existing Demand + Cumulative Pupil Yield at intake + 5% Surplus (Forms of Entry):

Current (2017) Projected Demand + Cumulative Pupil Yield at intake:

Secondary School Pupil Yield Cumulative at intake:

Current (Secondary) Projected Demand + 5% Surplus + Cumulative Pupil Yield at intake:

In forms of entry:

In forms of entry:

-44Surplus, at intake, between chosen scenario and places currently available/approved:

Surplus, at intake, between current projections and places currently available/approved:

-38 -44

4 -22 15

HA34

HA36

HA10 HA30

HA31 HA32

HA33

HA35

HA37

277 278 278 278 278 281 281 291 289 296 295 298 299 304 310 314 314 308

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

20 3473

35 4867

43 46 58

109

192170 170

120 108 93

29 30 30 30 29 38

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

3 7 12 12 13 19 2135

50

73

99

133

162

194

220

249

273

296

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

This chart shows the number of dwellings

expected to be built in the area over theBorough Plan period to 2032/33.

The bars show the numbers being built ineach financial year. The bars are split to

show the dwelling types being built,red/brown for flats and blue for houses.

The red line shows the cumulative number

of new dwellings expected over theremaining plan period.

For comparison, the chart also includes ofnew dwellings completed in recent years

(not included in cumulative total).

This table shows the same information as thechart above, coloured to indicate when highernumbers of new dwellings are expected.

This table indicates when it is

expected that the main sitesidentified in the Borough LocalPlan in this subarea will bebuilt. For reasons of space, themain sites are listed on both

sides of the table.

This table shows which pupil yields calculations are being used

for each area. Some areas, for example, have had too fewnew dwellings to allow the calculation of a pupil yield figure,and so use the borough wide figures.

This chart shows the number of pupils expected to live in the

new dwellings, based on the borough's most recent pupilyield survey. This is plotted against the academic year ofimpact.

The columns show the cumulative total of pupils, whilst thegreen line shows the additional pupils at intake (e.g.Reception, Year 7, 5 or 9). The table below also translatesthese numbers into forms of entry (i.e. classes of 30).

1.51.2

max intake max numbers

This chart shows two datasets that should not get confused.

Infrastructure Delivery Plan (IDP) ScenarioThe purpose of the IDP is to show that the infrastructure needed to serve the new housing can beprovided. The model allows the additional demand for school places to be projected on top of the

minimum, average or maximum demand for places already experienced. A surplus of places shouldalso be provided. The options selected here are:

The working assumption is that the additional demand should be projected on top of the maximumexisting demand, giving a projected need for places at the top end of the range.

Current Projected Demand (only available for area level analysis)Separately to the IDP, the boroug h projects demand for the next 4-7 years based on actualdemographics. The projections are given to show likely actual short/medium term demand.

1,362

new dwellings in area, toend of period

2036/372032/33

Peak: Peak:

cumulative total pupil yield100

cumulative pupil yield at intake

Existing Demand: Maximum Surplus: 5%

projected demand at intake, including surplus

100 total intake based on selected scenario

demand from housingexisting demand

places to give selected surplus

This is the difference between places available and the current projected demand including theagreed level of surplus places. This allows direct comparison with the IDP scenario.

new flats

new houses

100 total new dwellings

cumulative new dwellings

Produced by the Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead.

Contact: Ben.wright@achievingforchildren.org.uk

5. Schools serving the area, and their capacity for expansion 6. Map of the areaSchools physically located in the area Map Ref Junior? DfE No. Site (m

2) PAN Max PAN Gain Nursery

Charters School 10 No 8684029 129,702 270 360 +90 0

TOTAL 129,702 270 360 +90 0 0

Map Key

School map reference number

School already under site guidelines

School can expand intake by no. given.

Borough Local Plan Major Site

School designated area boundaries

Primary/First

Borough Local Plan Major Site

Middle/Secondary/Upper

8. Commentary for Secondary School need in Ascot 9. Potential cost of new buildingsAscotSecondary

Type of project Estimated cost

1

2

7. Pupil yield for Secondary Schools (Ascot) 3

4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 5

6

7

8

The Ascot area includes, for secondary, North Ascot. Ascot has 9 sites allocated for housing in the Borough Local Plan. This includes 250 dwellings at

Heatherwood Hospital (HA32), 242 at Ascot Town Centre (HA10) and 230 at Sunningdale Park (HA34). There are also many smaller sites expected, and

the projected number of new dwellings in the subarea over the plan period is 1,362.

55% of the new dwellings are expected to be flats; mainly two bedroom. 45% of the new dwellings are expected to be houses; a mixture of two, three,

four and five bedroom houses.

There is one secondary school in the Ascot area, with a PAN of 270.

Overall, the projected number, mix and timing of dwellings would generate a maximum of 319 additional secondary school children (1.5 FE) across all

year groups. The IDP Scenario (maximum expected demand) for the Year 7 intake in Ascot would be 314 (10.5 FE), coming from:

- 263 existing maximum demand.

- 36 additional demand from new dwellings.

- 15 to provide 5% surplus.

This leaves a shortfall of 44 on the current PAN.

Analysis suggests that the school could be expanded on its current site, providing up to 90 additional places at Year 7.

Only 60 additional places would be needed at Year 7 to meet the IDP Scenario, providing a total of 330 Year 7 places, 16 more than needed to meet the

IDP Scenario.

This assessment is a desktop exercise and does not yet consider individual circumstances on school sites that may make it impractical to expand.

Conversely, some sites currently identified as not having potential to expand may be able to grow if, for instance, adjacent land was made available.

There has currently been no consultation with individual schools, who may have a different view on their potential for expansion than set out here.0.61

0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.660.680.65

Number of years between start of dwelling completion period (financial year) and school census point

0.00

0.04

0.18

0.15

0.09

0.00

0.04

0.00 0.00

0.00

0.51

0.03 0.04 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.19 0.22 0.23 0.27

0.05 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.11 0.21 0.24 0.28 0.26

Analysis of housing development planned for Ascot Secondary (Page 2)

Summary

Definitely space

School has no further capacity to expand

School may be able to expand intake by no. given.

An orange border means this is a 'compact' site.

Dwelling

Flatsincluding Traveller

pitches.

F00.00 0.00 0.01

F10.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.02

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.160.02 0.06 0.10 0.12 0.14

0.00

0.01

F20.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01

F30.13 0.14 0.19 0.03 0.00

0.28

0.29

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.30 0.40 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00

0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.040.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.030.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00

0.00 0.04 0.01 0.03

H30.03 0.06 0.11 0.14 0.25

F4

F50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

HousesNo. refers to bedrooms.

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

H6

H20.00

H1

0.00 0.00

0.00 0.06

0.00

0.06 0.08

0.20 0.23

H40.03 0.09 0.12

0.22 0.31 0.33 0.36 0.32 0.30

0.54 0.430.08 0.04 0.21

0.25

0.54

0.090.06 0.08 0.00 0.21 0.25 0.41

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.47 0.54 0.34 0.30

0.00

0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00

H50.02

0.00

0.00 0.08

H70.00 0.00

H80.00

Expansion on existing sites £7,678,331

Total £7,678,331

29 January 2018

Maximum demand in IDP

Scenario, at intake:

The Royal Borough now calculates pupil yields by matching all newdwellings, via their Unique Property Reference Number, to theaddresses of pupils on roll in borough schools, as captured in thesummer term school census. This exercise currently includes all newproperties built between 2009/10 and 2015/16 (financial year)(inclusive).

By repeating this exercise in different academic years, it is possibleto calculate how the pupil yield changes as a property gets older. Atpresent, this calculation uses two school census points, Summer

2015 and Summer 2016.

This table shows the resulting pupil yield figures, by type of propertyand by age of the property.

The green columns are based on actual pupil yield data. The whitecolumns are projected, because the analysis does not yet includedwellings 8+ years older than a school census point. The projectedyields take account of average rates of movement in/out of new

dwellings as pupils get older.

The yields do not yet take account of whether a pupil was already onroll in a borough school but resident in an older dwelling; whether avacated older dwelling was then occupied by a 'new' pupil("backfill"), or whether a pupil leaving a new dwelling stayed or leftthe borough's schools ("retention").

These tables show the schools that are physically located in the area.

The tables show the site size for each school and the school's PublishedAdmission Number (PAN). This is the number of pupils that the schooltakes into each year group. The PAN given here includes any plannedexpansion.

The tables also show the maximum number of pupils that a school couldtake in each year group, based on government guidelines on site sizes inBuilding Bulletin 103 and the school's actual site. At present this analysis

doesn't take account of individual factors on school sites that may makeexpansion less practicable.

The scope for expansion assesses sites against class sizes of 30, as theborough would seek to expand schools to multiples of a whole class of 30

(e.g 90, not 75). Some flexibility on the guidance is assumed, so that sitesa little under the next threshold are 'bumped up' to that level.

Junior school sites are included, but their PANs are not included in thetotal for the area (as they admit in Year 3, not Reception, but still provideprimary places).

The total gain excludes any 'rejected' expansions, as indicated by the(red) cross at the end of a school's line.

The borough has determined that some capacity could be created byconverting existing sites to 'compact site' schools, using multi-storeybuildings and all-weather pitches. No specific schools have been chosen,however, and so they can't be identified here.

314

1,362

new dwellings in subarea,

to end of period

Maximum shortfall in IDP

Scenario, at intake:

0%

14%

35%

5%

0% 0% 0%

7%

12%

17%

9%

0%

F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6

% of new dwellings in area by type & size

© Crown copyright and database right 2018. OS 100018817

Note on the pupil yields for secondary

The scope of the pupil yield data has not yet extended over a long enough period to be certain about the impact of the longer term impact of new dwellings as the primary bulge moves up tosecondary school age. It is likely, for example, that two bedroom flats have a lower longer term yield than currently modelled as families move out into larger dwellings. It is equally likely,however, that many of those moves are into properties that are still in the borough. This is an area for further work.

-44 -1.5 +46 +1.5On current PANs: On potential PANs:

Rejected

0

0

+30

+30

10

10

10

10

0.0Still need:

to come

from makingexisting

schools into'compact'

site schools

(or byidentifying

further newsites).

55% 45%

Note on the costsThese are estimated costs based on per place costs from theNational School Delivery Cost Benchmarking Study 2017,adjusted by a location factor of 1.18 to reflect higher localbuild costs. There are different per place costs for primaryand secondary schools, and for new schools, school

extensions and refurbishments.

The costs exclude any land purchase costs and anysignificant abnormal costs, such as flood mitigation work or

highways and access work.