analysis of scenarios for the reduction of energy ... · analysis of scenarios for the reduction of...

Analysis of scenarios for the reductionof energy consumption and GHG emissions

in transport in the Basque Country

Gorka Bueno – UPV/EHU

Klimagune Workshop,Bilbao, 8 de junio de 2012Ingeniarien Goi Eskola

Escuela Superior de IngenieríaBilbao

There are two very good reasons to consume much less energy:

✗Global production of conventional oil reached its all-time peak of 70 Mb/d in 2006.

Currently producing oilfields show a declining rate of almost 6% (IEA).

✗ In order to avoid a catastrophic climate change of unexpected consequences:

→ Increase of global temperature must be held below 2º C.

→ Atmospheric CO2 should stabilize below 350 ppm.

→ CO2 emissions should be reduced by 85-95% in 2050.

Which are the possible routes to reduce energy consumption in transport?

Which is the potential reduction offered by each route?

Scenarios for the reduction of energy consumption and GHG emissions in transport – Gorka Bueno

Aims of the European Union for year 2050

Concept 2020

Reduction in energy demand (reference: 2006) 20%

Renewable energy contribution 20%

Electricity of renewable origin 33%?

CO2 emissions reduction (ref: 1990) 20%


Concept 2020 2050

Reduction in energy demand (reference: 2006) 20% 41%

Renewable energy contribution 20% 55-75%

Electricity of renewable origin 33%? 97%

CO2 emissions reduction (ref: 1990) 20% 80-95%

Emissions reduction in transport (ref: 2008) 66-75%

Comisión Europea, Hoja de Ruta de la Energía para 2050, diciembre 2011,<http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2011:0885:FIN:ES:PDF>

Aims of the European Union for year 2050


E f [MJ ]=People [ persons]×Journey [km ]×Vehicle Consumption [ MJ / km ]

Vehicle Capacity [ persons]×Occupancy [% ]

E f [MJ ]=Freight [ t ]×Journey [km ]×Vehicle Consumption [ MJ / km ]

Vehicle Capacity [ t ]×Loading [% ]

How do we calculate energy consumption in transport?






How much is moving?







How much is moving?

For how long?







How much is moving?

For how long? Dependent on vehicle characteristics &

propulsion technology







How much is moving?

For how long? Dependent on vehicle characteristics &

propulsion technology

How efficient is our use of the vehicle?







Fuel Economy [MJ/km]






Energy intensity of Transport [MJ/p·km, MJ/t·km]


SPREADSHEET

Dataprocessed

&organized

itemized by

OUTPUT

Raw data from administrations Primary Energy Consumption

Final Energy Consumption

GHG emissions

E f [MJ ]=People [ persons]×Journey [km ]×Vehicle Consumption [MJ / km ]

Vehicle Capacity [ persons]×Occupancy[% ]



Passengers / Freight

Transport mode

Journey

Propulsion Technology

Fuel

Parameters


Final energy consumption,by transport mode

Final energy consumption,by journey

Final energy consumption,by fuel

Final energy consumption,Basque Autonomous Community

Six scenarios have been explored,

based on the parameterization of energy consumption.

Each scenario explores one route to reduce consumption:

1. Efficient Scenario.

2. Electrification Scenario.

3. Electrification & Renewables Scenario.

4. Public Transport Scenario.

5. Relocalization Scenario.

6. Combination of all routes to reduce energy consumption.


Efficient Scenario

Significant reductions in consumption are achieved due to present trends in efficiency improvement, without ground-breaking innovations.

Cars and light trucks (ICE): 30,5% reduction of fuel economy (MJ/km)

Buses, coaches, heavy trucks (ICE): 53% reduction of energy intensity (MJ/p·km, MJ/t·km)

Trains: 20% reduction of energy intensity (ICE trains)5% reduction of energy intensity (electric trains)

Ships: 24% reduction of energy intensity

Aviation: 10% reduction of energy intensity

Primary andFinal Energy consumption: –29%

GHG emissions: –28,4%


Electrification Scenario

All road transport is electrified.

Cars and light trucks (BEV): 0,5 MJ/km of fuel economy (2,0 MJ/km in 2008)

Buses, coaches, heavy trucks (BEV): Consumption as efficient as in the previous scenario,but all electric.

Rail transport: All electric.

Primary Energy consumption: –38,7%

Final Energy Consumption: –56,5%

GHG emissions: –52%

Electricity is 54% of final energy consumption

Transport demands 6,9 TWh/year (whole economy 16,3 TWh in 2008)


Electrification & Renewables Scenario

All electricity is obtained from the exploitation of renewable energy fluxes.

Primary Energy consumption: –60%



Where does the renewable electricity come from (6,9 TWh/year)?

Wind farms: 3,5 GW (annual productivity of 2.000 hours)

Solar PV systems: 4,7 GW (productivity of 1.500 hours annually)


Public Transport Scenario

Energy intensities for all road transport modes for people converge to a value of:

~0,4 MJ/p·km

Primary Energy consumption: –57%

Final Energy Consumption: –57%

GHG emissions: –55%

Transport Mode

2008

Loading

Scenario

Energy Intensity

Public

Loading

Transport Scenario

Energy Intensity

Cars (ICE) 30,5% 1,14 MJ/p·km 85% 0,41 MJ/p·km

Bus & Coach 20% 0,53 MJ/p·km 30% 0,35 MJ/p·km

Metro 23% 0,35 MJ/p·km 23% 0,35 MJ/p·km

Tram 20% 0,89 MJ/p·km 45% 0,40 MJ/p·km

Train 30% 0,57-1,12 MJ/p·km 45-65% 0,38-0,52 MJ/p·km

Energy consumption parameters for each transport mode in the Electrification Scenario(energy consumption in terms of MJ/km is maintained for each transport mode in both scenarios).


Relocalization ScenarioThe ratio between transportation and whole economic activity recovers the levels seen in Southern Europe 40 years ago.

Spain European Union

Transport Mode 1970 2008 2008/1970 1970 2008 2008/1970

Railway 106 t·km 10,3 10,3 × 1,0 507,6 426,7 × 0,8

Road 106 t·km 51,7 238,7 × 4,6 396,2 1.699,5 × 4,3

Pipeline 106 t·km 1,0 9,1 × 9,1 80,3 120,1 × 1,5

Freight—Total 106 t·km 63,1 258,1 × 4,1 1.095,2 2.389,1 × 2,2

Railway 109 p·km 15,0 24,0 × 1,6 301,3 407,5 × 1,4

Car 109 p·km 64,3 339,1 × 5,3 1.458,2 4.392,8 × 3,0

Bus & Coach 109 p·km 20,9 60,9 × 2,9 337,9 500,9 × 1,5

Road 109 p·km 85,3 400,0 × 4,7 1.796,1 4.893,7 × 2,7

People—Total 109 p·km 100,2 424,0 × 4,2 2.097,4 5.301,1 × 2,5

World GDP change (inflation adjusted)

1970 2008 2008/1970 EU × 2,7

Freight—Seaborne 109 t·miles 10.441,2 32.352,9 3,1 Spain × 2,0

Evolution of transport of people and freightin Spain and the European Union between 1970 and 2008.


Relocalization ScenarioThe ratio between transportation and whole economic activity recovers the levels seen in Southern Europe 40 years ago.

Reductions in:

Road transport 57%

Seaborne transport 35%

Air transport 90%

Primary Energy consumption: –66,0%




Scenario with all routes exploited

CONCLUSIONS

● There is no “silver bullet” of technological nature capable of reducing energy consumption as much as needed.

● Decarbonization of transport needs of every viable route (and more).

● We need very important improvements in efficiency.

● Profound electrification of road transport is needed.

● Huge development of renewable energy sources is also needed.

● Impulse of public transportation, but also high occupancies in cars:Revolution in urban planning?

● Less mobility is absolutely indispensable.Economic implications?


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