analysis of the sustainability of land use options ... · pdf fileanalysis of the...
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Analysis of the sustainability of land
use options: interdisciplinary
process and tools
E.-A. Nuppenau
contributions by Dimpho Matlhola, Amanda Eigner,
Benjamin Kowalski, Stephanie Domptail (SP08)
The Future Okavango (TFO)
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Content
� Introduction
� Conceptual framework
� Willingness to Pay of tourists for ESS
� Social Metabolism and ESS
� Farming System Analysis and ESS valuation
� Scenario Building
� Summary
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Introduction
SP08 within TFO follows the conceptual framework of TFO in
� delivering valuations as input for stakeholder communication
� translating ESS in user perspective and asking for
SP08 has worked on
� Willingness to Pay of Tourists in Seronga
� Social-Metabolism in Seronga
� Farming System Analysis and Shadow Prices in Mashare
� Scenario-building & Multi-Criteria Analysis in Seronga
SP08 will work on
� Payment for Ecosystem Service in Chitembo and Seronga
� Farming System and Shadow price in Chitembo
� Making Contribution to overall TFO goals
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SP08 in valuation• scarcity of ESS for raising awareness
• ecological valuation of land use opt-
tions (MEFA, ecological integrity)
• shadow pricing (SPA) of ES services
• Willingness to pay (WTP) for ESS
• Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA)
• PES Stakeholder evaluation of
scenarios abd scenario building (ESB)
SP08 and Conceptual Framework of TFO
Social
feed-
backs,
Okavango Social-Ecological System
People/Stakeholder
ESS for well-being
• Economic values
(Monetary and non-
monetary)
• Shared social
values
Provision of
directly used ESS
and Goods
Drivers of
system
transformation
ESF
ESS
Tools and
scenarios
socioeconomic assessment
(SP 6, 7, 8, 10 transdisciplinary)
-stakeholder and ESS
-well-being + goods
-perceptions
-aspirations and strategies
-behaviour and decision making
assessment of drivers of
-technology and management
-practices, institutions and
governance
-contribution to scenario + tool
development
biophysical assessment
(SP 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9)
trans-
lation
intoAnalysis of
interactions
Analysis of interactions
delivery-values
-scenarios
-options
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An Analysis of Tourist Preferences for
Ecotourism in the Okavango Delta� For a choice experiment we have
developed hypothetical scenarios
using the below attribute
- landscape- flooded delta
and reduced water flow
- wildlife- less chances of seeing wildlife due population
reduction
- management of community tourism enterprises- joint
venture with privately owned enterprises
� Levels of these attributes have been grouped into choice sets
to estimate marginal willingness to pay of tourist
tool
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62
21
68
92
30
10
5743
Reasons for visiting Okavango Delta
• Tourists prefer the flooded delta and seeing many wildlife species
even at increased prices
• 54% of tourists are willing to contribute to compensation fund to be
established by the government
• 73% of tourists are willing to pay more to involve the community in
ecotourism activities
results
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Socio-economic Metabolism
7
tool
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Data collection
� For MEFA
� surveys on HH-level up-scaled on village level;
� secondary literature
� For the Useful Energy Analysis
� Focus groups on food consumption and on labour;
� HH estimations up-scaled on village level
Useful Energy Analysis
Energy efficiency of energy used for production
� Final Energy = food consumption
� Useful Energy = labour
The Future Okavango - Project 8
survey
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Results for Seronga (Botswana)
Seronga System (sectors)
POLICIES: - Favouring wildlife protection for tourism
- Export of meat and crops
FISHKey protein source at village level
Fishing done by 30 to 50%
Stocks stable (Ramberg, 2006)
Endos. EROI: 245
LIVESTOCKExport of meat
High density and increasing (SAREP, 2012)
Endosomatic EROI: 11,1Exos. EROI: 0,02
CROPPINGMain source of foodEndos. EROI: 0,25Exos. EROI: 0,16
Almost no soil fertility managementSevere loss due to wildlife
Productive land limited
(-)
ne
ed
to
pro
tect
fie
lds
(+)
ma
nu
re,
resi
du
es
Non-land management policiesAbout 30% of the HH:
Introduction of cash economy
Electrification
TOURISMWildlife is protected
Less land access (tourism business; national parks)High density of elephants
(-) less land access
(-) losses (>2%)
Seronga Socio-Ecological system likely changes;
Switch from an agrarian society to another type of society?
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method
Valuation via Shadow Price detection
Bio-economic modelling: � based on thorough Farming System Analysis � appropriate simplification
Shadow prices derived for:� Soil Quality: Yield and SQ assessment in 2013
� Irrigation water: extremely thin data base, as most commercial irrigation projects did not document any production data
Modeling of households‘ decision making: � Maximize Utility by allocating a typical households labour between agricultural
practices and casual wage work; other activites assumed constant.
Adaptation to three core sites. � Example Mashare, Namibia: Household categorization into:
ox-owners (34 % of HHs) vs. non-ox-owners (66% of HHs)
� Land scarcity in Namibia vs. land abundance in Angola
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results
Preliminary Results for Mashare (Namibia)
• Minor diversification of crop production: 91.4 % of all farm-
households cultivate not more than three crops (i.e. usually 2–4),
• Mahango plus at least one vegetable (81.2%) and at least one fruit 68.2
(68.2%).
• Smallholder subsistence agriculture on 2 – 4 ha with is the main livelihood activity for the vast majority of local households.
• 88 % of all households practices dryland cropping with pearl millet (Mahango) (Pennisetum glaucum) as the main crop
• 75 % of all households own herds of less than 20 cattle and/or goats, mainly for subsistence reasons (TFO 2011)
• Extremely low yields of on average 161.2 kg/ha
Field input use Kavango region Study area
Fertilizer/Pesticides 10 % 5 %
Manure 8 – 26 % 2,5 %
Improved seeds 73 % 40 %
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Exploratory scenarios for synthesis of
knowledge� Method based on MEA
(Henrichs et al., 2010)
� Aims:
� Communication of research
results
� Synthesis of disciplinary
research
Current
situationExploratory
scenarios
2030
• Outputs:
-Storylines + Spatially explicit maps of land use
-Evaluation of main assumptions about key drivers on
-ESS and well-being indicators
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„I think stories are very important things so that we
will start to preparing ourselves to know what to do
and what not to do. I think it is very important for us as
a generation, within the country, nationally,
internationally. „
NAMwater senior supervisor, Rundu
Instead of a Summary let local people speak