analysis of weatherization measures options for savings methodology and presentation of costs from 6...

Analysis of Weatherization Measures

Options for Savings Methodology and Presentation of Costs from 6th Plan

Regional Technical ForumMay 4th, 2010

The Old Method• “SUNDAY” Whole House Energy Use Calculation Tool

– Temperature Bin and Solar Gain Analysis– Calibrated to metered usage– Zonal heating system assumed– Inputs

• House UA• T-stat Settings• Window area and orientation• Internal Gains• Duct characteristics

• “Last Measure In” Analysis– Weatherization measures are applied to the SUNDAY kWh versus UA curve, in

order of cost-effectiveness, starting with the most cost-effective. – The last cost-effective measure’s kWh/∆UA is calculated– This kWh/∆UA is applied to all weatherization measures, as if each measure

was the “last measure in”• With SUNDAY, this is a conservative approach. Remember, the house’s existing

insulation level is unknown.

2

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

100 300 500 700 900 1100

Spac

e H

eatin

g U

se (k

Wh/

yr)

House Heat Loss, UA (Btu/hr/°F)

Sunday(Portland, Single Family, Zonal)

Sunday (850 ft2 prototype)



3

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

100 300 500 700 900 1100

slop

e (k

Wh

savi

ngs/

delta

UA)

Spac

e H

eatin

g U

se (k

Wh/

yr)


Sunday(Portland, Single Family, Zonal)




slope (850 ft2 prototype)



Last Measure In kWh/∆UA

4

21.725.3 26.7

The New (revised 6th Plan) Method• SEEM

– An improved version of SUNDAY• Hourly simulation• Ground contact, crawlspace, attic, and ducts are more precisely modeled

– Inputs calibrated to metered energy use (note: the original 6th Plan values were not calibrated)

• Modified t-stat settings for zonal and electric forced air furnaces (66 deg F)• Calibration was approved by the RTF in Nov 2009

– Zonal heating system assumed (no change)– Justification: weighted average COP of Heat Pump, FAF, and Zonal is about 1.0

• Revised 6th Plan Method Uses– “Last Measure In” Analysis

• No change– SEEM

• SEEM Runs include– 13 Weatherization Packages– 5 TMY3 Weather Inputs– 3 House Prototypes

– Issues with this method• kWh vs UA curve is not smooth• Extrapolation required• Doesn’t take into account FAF or HP’s• …more details on following slides…

5

MeasureBase U-factor

End U-factor

Package No. Base R End R

Base BaseWindow Class 35 0.85 0.34 1ATTIC R19 0.118 0.051 2 8.5 19.6FLOOR R19 0.106 0.045 3 9.4 22.0WALL R13 0.154 0.090 4 6.5 11.1WINDOW CL30 0.340 0.293 5ATTIC R38 0.051 0.029 6 19.6 35.0INFILTRATION @ O.35 ACH .45 ach .35 ach 7FLOOR R30 0.045 0.033 8 22.0 30.6ATTIC R49 0.029 0.034 9 35.0 29.4DOOR R5 0.470 0.190 10 2.1 5.3FLOOR R38 0.033 0.028 11 30.6 36.2WINDOW CL25 0.293 0.245 12

SEEM Weatherization Packages

6

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

100 300 500 700 900 1,100

Spac

e H

eatin

g U

se (k

Wh/

yr)


SEEM(Portland, Single Family, Zonal)

SEEM (1344 ft2 prototype)



7

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

100 300 500 700 900 1100

Spac

e H

eatin

g U

se (k

Wh/

yr)


Sunday vs SEEM(Portland, Single Family, Zonal)







0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

100 300 500 700 900 1,100

calc

ulat

ed k

Wh

savi

ngs/

delta

UA

Spac

e H

eatin

g U

se (k

Wh/

yr)









Last Measure In kWh/∆UA

8

15.9

27.5

26.7

Savings Comparison• Old (Values in the PTR) versus New (revised 6th Plan)• But…another change to be aware of regarding the revised 6th

Plan analysis:– Revised U-values of Attics and Floors for revised 6th Plan runs:

– Un-insulated cases remained the same• “R0” attic

– U-value: 0.118– R-value: 8.5

9

U-value R-value U-value R-valueAttic R19 STD 0.060 16.7 0.051 19.6Attic R38 STD 0.039 25.6 0.029 35.0Attic R49 STD 0.034 29.4 0.023 42.6Floor R19 0.041 24.4 0.045 22.0Floor R30 0.029 34.5 0.033 30.6Floor R38 0.025 40.0 0.028 36.2

Updated 6th PlanOld InputsInsulation Level

• “R0” floor– U-value: 0.106 – R-value: 9.4

100.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

ATTIC R0 - R19 ATTIC R0 - R38 ATTIC R0 - R49 ATTIC R38 - R49 FLOOR R0 - R19 FLOOR R0 - R30 WALL R0 - R11

Savi

ngs (

kWh/

squa

re fo

ot)

Single Family Savings - 6th Plan vs PTR ValuesHeating Zone 1

PTR

6th Plan

110.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0


Savi

ngs (

kWh/

squa

re fo

ot)


PTR

6th Plan

120.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0


Savi

ngs (

kWh/

squa

re fo

ot)


PTR

6th Plan

13

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Heating Zone 1 Heating Zone 2 Heating Zone 3

Savi

ngs (

kWh/

squa

re fo

ot)

Single Family Savings - 6th Plan vs PTR ValuesDouble Pane Window Replaced with class 30

PTR

6th Plan

Alternatives to 6th Plan Approach(In ascending order of correctness)

Options1a. Use “last measure in – by measure type” method

- Applies a more representative kWh/∆UA factor to each measure

1b. Use constant slope for all measures- Eliminates “last measure in”, which doesn’t match SEEM’s output

2. Use SEEM to more directly calculate savings for the measure- This would require the most work to put together, but it would be the most correct methodAdditional Decisions to make under Option 2:i. Publish one melded value OR separate values for FAF, Zonal, and HP heating systemsii. Assume the “go to” case is a fully weatherized house with sealed ducts OR some assumed average caseiii. There are probably many more decisions to make…

Sub-OptionA. All options above could implement an additional option: Use the 6th

Plan’s mix of Forced Air furnace (36%), Zonal (42%), and Heat Pump (22%) heating systems. (instead of modeling zonal only)

14

15

Option 1a. Last Measure In - by Measure Type

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

1344 Prototype 2200 Prototype 2688 Prototype

kWh

savi

ngs /

∆ U

A

SEEM Savings by Measure Type (Portland, Zonal, Single Family)

windows (u-0.85 to u-0.35)windows (u-0.35 to u-0.30)windows (u-0.30 to u-0.25)attic (R0 to R19)attic (R19 to R38)attic (R38 to R49)floor (R0 to R19)floor (R19 to R30)floor (R30 to R38)Wall (R0 to R13)Infiltration (0.45 to 0.35 ACH)Door (R2.5 to R5.0)

16

Option 1a. Last Measure In - by Measure Type, with A. use heating system mixOption 1a. Last Measure In - by Measure Type, with Sub-Option A. use heating system mix

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0


kWh

savi

ngs /

∆ U

A

SEEM Savings by Measure Type (Portland, HP 7.7 w/o PTCS, Single Family)


17

Option 1a. Last Measure In - by Measure Type, with Sub-Option A. use heating system mix

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0


kWh

savi

ngs /

∆ U

A

SEEM Savings by Measure Type (Portland, FAF w/o PTCS, Single Family)


y = 24.3x - 2,391.3R² = 1.0

y = 24.7x - 2,996.1R² = 1.0

y = 23.3x - 3,587.9R² = 1.0

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

100 300 500 700 900 1,100

Spac

e H

eatin

g U

se (k

Wh/

yr)






18

Option 1b. Constant Slope

y = 15.8x - 777.9R² = 1.0

y = 16.0x - 970.6R² = 1.0

y = 12.0x - 1,102.8R² = 1.0

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

100 300 500 700 900 1,100

Spac

e H

eatin

g U

se (k

Wh/

yr)


SEEM(Portland, Single Family, Heat Pump w/o PTCS)




19

Option 1b. Constant Slope, with Sub-Option A. use heating system mix

y = 30.1x - 2,498.4R² = 1.0

y = 30.7x - 2,645.5R² = 1.0

y = 25.3x - 3,652.5R² = 1.0

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

100 300 500 700 900 1,100

Spac

e H

eatin

g U

se (k

Wh/

yr)


SEEM(Portland, Single Family, FAF w/o PTCS)




20

Option 1b. Constant SlopeOption 1b. Constant Slope, with Sub-Option A. use heating system mix

21

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

(20,000)

(10,000)

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

250 450 650 850 1,050

slop

e: k

Wh

savi

ngs/

delta

UA

Spac

e H

eatin

g U

se (k

Wh/

yr)


SEEM - Zonal vs Weighted Average Heating System(Heating Zone 1)

1344 Zonal

2200 Zonal

2688 Zonal

1344 Weighted

2200 Weighted

2688 Weighted

zonal slope 1344

zonal slope 2200

zonal slope 2688

weighted slope 1344

weighted slope 2200

weighted slope 2688

22

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

(20,000)

(10,000)

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

250 450 650 850 1,050

slop

e: k

Wh

savi

ngs/

delta

UA

Spac

e H

eatin

g U

se (k

Wh/

yr)


SEEM - Zonal vs Weighted Average Heating System(Heating Zone 3)

1344 Zonal

2200 Zonal

2688 Zonal

1344 Weighted

2200 Weighted

2688 Weighted

zonal slope 1344

zonal slope 2200

zonal slope 2688

weighted slope 1344

weighted slope 2200

weighted slope 2688

23

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

kWh

Savi

ngs/

delta

UA

Package Number

Zonal versus Weighted Average Heating System(w/o PTCS) Weighted Average; HZ1

Zonal; HZ1Weighted Average; HZ2Zonal; HZ2Weighted Average; HZ3Zonal; HZ3

Decision on Savings Methodology

• Adopt 6th Plan method or adopt another method?

24

Insulation Measure Costs• Old Method (from 5th Plan)

– Average of four sources• PSE Reported Costs• EWEB Reported Costs• Pacific PUD Reported Costs• 1996 Power Plan Costs

• New Method– Median of ETO Program Data (electric)

• May 2007 through July 2008

– Cost per ft2 = [Median (ETO cost/ft2/∆R)] × [∆ R]

25

ETO Cost Data for Ceiling Insulation

26

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351 401 451

SQFT

$-

$0.02

$0.04

$0.06

$0.08

$0.10

1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351 401 451

Delta $/SF/R

0

10

20

30

40

50

1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351 401 451

R-Value Added R

BEGINR

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351 401 451

COST INSTALL

Median: 2.3¢/ft2/∆R

ETO Cost Data for Floor Insulation

27$-

$0.02

$0.04

$0.06

$0.08

$0.10

1 51 101 151 201 251

Delta $/SF/R

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1 51 101 151 201 251

SQFT

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

1 51 101 151 201 251

COST INSTALL

0

10

20

30

40

50

1 51 101 151 201 251

R-Value Added R

BEGINR


ETO Cost Data for Wall Insulation

28$-

$0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 $0.35 $0.40

1 51

Delta $/SF/R

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1 51

SQFT

$-$500

$1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000

1 51

COST INSTALL

0

10

20

30

40

50

1 51

R-Value Added R

BEGINR


Window Measure Costs• Used ETO Program data for

Multifamily– Multifamily costs

expected to best convey the cost of the efficiency improvement

– Single Family costs expected to be biased high due to additional “features”

• U-0.30 to U-0.25 assumed to be $2.00/ft2

– Recommend change to $1.36/ft2 per June 2009 RTF meeting decision

• Gary Curtis’ research on costs for a 0.30 window package versus 0.22.

29

Single Family (Conversions)U-Factor Mean (/sqft) Median (/sqft) 25th Percentile N

0.35 25.91$ 24.03$ 17.58$ 480.34 28.15$ 26.98$ 23.16$ 270.33 28.55$ 28.02$ 23.92$ 140.32 32.20$ 26.08$ 18.46$ 1910.31 30.85$ 26.12$ 20.86$ 2910.30 32.78$ 27.42$ 20.17$ 3980.29 41.45$ 40.18$ 27.29$ 1560.28 35.44$ 29.18$ 21.31$ 310.27 39.45$ 36.70$ 30.27$ 100.26 44.13$ 44.13$ 28.53$ 20.25 74.09$ 94.93$ 63.57$ 30.24 49.85$ 49.85$ 42.21$ 20.23 31.27$ 31.27$ 29.40$ 20.22 28.77$ 28.77$ 28.77$ 10.21 66.94$ 67.32$ 55.48$ 30.20 79.15$ 81.97$ 73.68$ 270.19 91.75$ 93.63$ 90.46$ 3

Single Family (Upgrades)U-Factor Mean (/sqft) Median (/sqft) 25th Percentile

0.35 to 0.30 6.87$ 3.39$ 2.60$ 0.30 to 0.25 41.31$ 67.51$ 43.40$ 0.25 to 0.20 5.05$ (12.96)$ 10.11$

Multifamily (Conversions)U-Factor Mean (/sqft) Median (/sqft) 25th Percentile N

0.35 19.20$ 20.76$ 17.24$ 40.34 24.74$ 24.91$ 21.40$ 60.33 17.73$ 17.73$ 17.73$ 10.32 23.33$ 21.93$ 17.73$ 150.31 22.01$ 17.22$ 14.11$ 160.30 22.26$ 21.63$ 18.15$ 620.29 23.11$ 22.56$ 18.00$ 120.25 40.39$ 40.39$ 40.39$ 2

Multifamily (Upgrades)U-Factor Mean (/sqft) Median (/sqft) 25th Percentile

0.35 to 0.30 3.06$ 0.87$ 0.90$ 0.30 to 0.25 18.13$ 18.77$ 22.24$

ETO Data

30

$-

$20.00

$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40

Co

st/

sq

.ft.

(2

00

6$

)

U-Factor

Single and Multifamily Retrofit Window Cost

Single Family Window Cost

Multi-family Window Cost

Cost Comparisons

31$-

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

ATTIC R0-R19 ATTIC R0-R38 ATTIC R0-R49 ATTIC R38-R49 FLOOR R0-R19 FLOOR R0-R30 WALL R0-R11

Mea

sure

Cos

t (20

06$'

s pe

r squ

are

foot

)Single Family Costs - 6th Plan vs PTR Values PTR

6th Plan

Window Replacement (Not Shown)

PTR: $24.18 6th Plan: $20.07

Decision on Costs

• Adopt 6th Plan method?

32

analysis of weatherization measures options for savings methodology and presentation of costs from 6...

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