analyst helper. training, investigation and analysis based on structured thinking

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Analyst Helper. Introductory Presentation 15-10-2010

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Analyst Helper. A service platform based on "Structured Thinking" ans "Scientific Intelligence" that allows to train, coach and advise analysts, investigators, and knowledge workers in general, and provide them with significant resources in the form of doctrine, strategies, methods, tecniques, systems, organizations and tools.

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Analyst Helper. Training, Investigation and Analysis based on structured thinking

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Analyst Helper. Introductory Presentation

15-10-2010

Page 2: Analyst Helper. Training, Investigation and Analysis based on structured thinking

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ANALYST HELPER is a set of training, coaching and advising services on investigation and analysis based on the discipline of Scientific Intelligence applied to Structured Thinking.It has been designed to train elite analysts from various fields, but can be applied to any person, professional, collective or organization.

“Only the best train the rest” JMJ-2010

ANALYST HELPER

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Page 3: Analyst Helper. Training, Investigation and Analysis based on structured thinking

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According to Lewin, analysis is the process in which the constituent parts of what is being analyzed are identified as for the relationships between them to gain a better understanding of how the entire entity and their parts are made and work.

Definition of Analysis

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Page 4: Analyst Helper. Training, Investigation and Analysis based on structured thinking

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The one which is competent to determine the precise problem, set targets and issues, design, develop and manage a data collection plan, manage the processing of such data and disseminating the intelligence product according to demand of the organization or client.

The analyst as investigator

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Page 5: Analyst Helper. Training, Investigation and Analysis based on structured thinking

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“The rules of the game: learn everything, read everything, inquire into everything… When two texts, or two assertions, or perhaps two ideas, are in contradiction, be ready to reconcile them rather than cancel one by the other; regard them as two different facets, or two successive stages, of the same reality, a reality convincingly human just because it is complex.”

Marguerite Yourcenar, Memoirs of Hadrian

The analyst and complexity

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Page 6: Analyst Helper. Training, Investigation and Analysis based on structured thinking

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“ Solid intelligence on terrorism is not easy to develop… I would like to salute the unsung heroes of the struggle against terrorism. These heroes are the intelligence analysts. Often they have little to go on: a photograph, a fragment of an overheard conversation, the text of a communiqué, the summary of a meeting, a used airline ticket. Sometimes, it is like piecing together a gigantic jigsaw puzzle, but it is a puzzle that can save lives.”

George Shultz

Former Secretary of State

THE INTELLIGENCE ANALYST: The TOP analyst

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Page 7: Analyst Helper. Training, Investigation and Analysis based on structured thinking

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JMJLAB has developed a service platform based on "Structured Thinking" and “Scientific Intelligence” that allows to train, coach and advise analysts, investigators and knowledge workers in general and provide them with significant resources in the form of doctrines, strategies, methods, techniques, systems, organizations and tools. We call this platform Analyst Helper.

Introduction to Analyst Helper - I

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Page 8: Analyst Helper. Training, Investigation and Analysis based on structured thinking

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• It is a platform of knowledge and services for investigation and analysis aimed at any knowledge worker in general (consultants, scientists, lawyers, managers, advisors, journalists, etc.) and at the body of professional analysts in particular (financial, marketing, political, military, police investigators, social or scientific analysts).

• It was designed by JMJ after more than 15 years of research in this field.

• It is in constant process of improvement and innovation.

• In 2011 the platform will have a Portal version aimed to the global community of analysts.

Introduction to Analyst Helper - II

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Page 9: Analyst Helper. Training, Investigation and Analysis based on structured thinking

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Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 9ANALYST HELPER. Training and advising platform

Advanced platform for continuous training, coaching and advising

H1: Steve WillGive Talk

E: Steve isVisitor

P(E) = 1.

P(H1|E) = .95

H: Visit will Be success

H2: Talk willBe good

H3: Steve WillMeet Faculty

H4: Faculty Meetings Will go well

H5: Steve WillMeet Graduate

Students

H6: GS Meetings Will go well

P(H2|H1) = 2/3

P(H|H2) = 3/4

P(H3|E, H2) = .95

P(H3|H2) = .5

P(H|H4) = .85P(H|H6) = .65

P(H5|E) = .60

P(H6|H5) = .8P(H3|H2) = ..8

Bayesian Belief Network

MissionTypeBlueAttack 100

BlueRescue 0

RedAttack 0

WithDraw 0

Distance Al 0

FiringRange 0

Nearby 100

Distant 0

AngleOff Facing 100

Glancing 0

Perpendicular 0

Away 0

Attacking targetTrue 0

False 100

FireSupport None 0

Couple 100

Few 0

Many 0

MoveSupportNone 0

Couple 100

Few 0

Many 0

FrendlyDensity Isolated 0

Moderate 100

High 0

Cover None 0

Moderate 100

High 0

TargetDensity Isolated 0

Moderate 100

High 0

AtackPosition Rear 0

Flank 0

Front 100

Defend True 70.0

False 30.0

0 5 10 15 20 25

5

10

15

20

25

30

Time T1Time T2Time T3Time T4

Alias P.A.N.M.

P.H. Pitharny

Louis HandsomeJp. Donarthy

Alias “Jones”

People

Hanjai Jonaby

Muhamar Hanjadar

B.B. Blubingier

Khar Jharti

Leonard P. WilsonGardai Hunini

33-348976546667983211

45-6798321100-456143260 VISA 34232245678

VISA 34232245678

22-34897654

MC 456143260MC 456143260 MC 456143260

Communications

01-555-343-6789

01-555-343-5456

01-888-343-6789

06-555-378-6789

01-555-343-6789

01-775-343-678901-555-366-6789

01-555-343-6789

01-777-478-7676

01-555-343-6789

01-555-343-678901-555-343-6789

1. Objetivos de un competidor.2. Estado emocional de un competidor.3. Patrones y preferencias de un competidor.4. Planes de un competidor.5. Anticipación de las acciones de un

competidor.6. Manipulación y trampas de un competidor.7. Determinación del centro de gravedad

estratégico de una organización.8. Establecimiento de perf iles sociales y

psicológicos de una persona o grupo.9. Descubrimiento de relaciones ocultas entre

personas u organizaciones.10. Determinación del tipo de relaciones de una

persona u organización.11. Red social pasada, presente y de intención

futura de una persona u organización.12. Perf iles y percepciones de las personas y u

organizaciones sobre otras.13. Vías alternativas de planteamiento de

problemas y soluciones.14. Alternativas de decisión en función de la

situación y los objetivos.15. Determinación de eventos futuros en

función de los eventos acaecidos en hasta el presente.

16. Establecimiento de rankings de credibilidad en informaciones ,personas y organizaciones.

17. Determinación del costo-benef icio de ciertos objetivos y acciones.

18. Determinación de los procesos que pueden conducir a un evento o situación.

19. Ponderaciones de opiniones de expertos sobre un tema.

20. Determinación de las compensaciones necesarias para realizar una acción

21. Establecimiento de las tendencias de escalada en una situación o conf licto.

22. Determinación de las fuerzas de los actores en un escenario de operación posible .

23. Determinación de la estrategia de los actores en un escenario de operación posible.

24. Disposición de las fuerzas de un objetivo en función de su situación geográf ica.

25. Determinación del signif icado de tendencias y patrones numéricos en personas, objetos y organizaciones.

26. Determinación de la estructura real de una organización.

27. Detección de patrones explicativos en textos.28. Reconocimiento y previsión de situaciones

por analogías con otras situaciones o casos.29. Modelos matemáticos de comportamientos

de las variables explicativas de un fenómeno del mundo real.

30. Simulación dinámica de situaciones.31. Matrices de asociación.32. Cuadros de hipótesis alternativas que

compiten entre si en función de las evidencias captadas en el momento t.

1. Estructura de un consejo de administración.2. Empresas vinculadas en un sector.3. Curriculums disponibles sobre una habilidad.4. Documentos disponibles sobre una tecnología.5. Transacciones o llamadas desde una cuenta.6. Informaciones disponibles sobre una empresa.

7. Relaciones entre empresas o personas.8. Relaciones entre publicaciones o blogs.9. Mapas tecnológicos de investigadores o centros I+D10. Noticias relacionadas en un determinado momento.11. Actores y relaciones en un sector determinado.12. Informaciones disponibles sobre una empresa.

13. Perfil electrónico de un ejecutivo.14. Relaciones de un ejecutivo.15. Escritos y publicaciones de un ejecutivo.16. Videos y grabaciones de audio disponible sobre

conferencias.17. Presentaciones realizadas por un ejecutivo.18. Biografía extendida.

19. Seguimiento de eventos empresariales.20. Seguimiento del ciclo de vida de un producto.21. Seguimiento de patentes.22. Movimientos públicos de competidores en un

momento determinado.23. Seguimiento de operaciones corporativas.24. Envío de alertas predeterminadas.

25. Detección de palabras clave en documentos de audio.

26. Monitorización de medios locales.27. Transcripción y análisis de textos.28. Seguimiento de campañas.29. Envío de alertas y posicionamiento de video y

audio

30. Georeferenciación de clientes.31. Georeferenciación de oportunidades.32. Georeferenciación de infraestructuras33. Detección y envío de alertas geográficas.34. Detección de rutas.35. Localización de actores y relaciones de proximidad.

Evidencias

Conjeturar para formar una hipótesis

generalizada

Ensamblar la evidencia en el

marco generalizado de discernimiento

Validar la nueva probabilidad de

la hipótesis

Conjeturar la mejor explicación de las

evidencias

Ensamblar evidencias que mejor enmarquen el

proceso de discernimiento

Evaluar múltiples probabilidades de

hipótesis

Búsqueda de evidencias para afirmar nuevas

hipótesisConjeturar nuevas hipótesis

Hipótesis apta para pruebas con plantillas conocidas

Evaluación de probabilidades de múltiples

hipótesis

Retroducción

Deducción

Abducción

Inducción

Detección

Conjeturar un patrón general de ataques a través de todas las categorías de objetivos

8 Descubrimiento

12

3

4

5

6

7

Tratamos de encontrar alguna evidencia de patrones conocidos en ataques previos

Tratamos de encontrar alguna evidencia que indique nuevos patrones de ataque en otra clase de objetivos

La evidencias parecen indicar otras clases de ataques a objetivos

Explicación

La más probable explicación de la

evidencia produce razones

para la alerta

No encaja,pe

ro que ocurre

con ataques con el mismoMO a otros

ojetivos

Validar una estrategia de

ataque general

E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6

E7E8 E9

i1

i2Conflicto

i5

i3

i4i9

H1: es una guarnición militarH0: es una fábrica de jabón

Hipótesis acerca de la situación de la fábrica H={H0,H1}

i10

i11

i12

i13

i14

i15i16

i17

i18

i19

i20

i21

i6

i7

i8

Redundante

Consonante

Evidencia

Inferenciasde credibilidad

Inferenciasde relevancia

Hipótesis final

Disminuye

Aumenta

CLIENTECLIENTE TELÉFONOTELÉFONO

DIRECCIÓNDIRECCIÓNCLIENTECLIENTE

CLIENTECLIENTE

CLIENTECLIENTE

DIRECCIÓNDIRECCIÓN

DIRECCIÓN

CLIENTECLIENTE

TELÉFONOTELÉFONO

TRANSACCIÓNTRANSACCIÓN

TRANSACCIÓNTRANSACCIÓN

TRANSACCIÓNTRANSACCIÓNTRANSACCIÓNTRANSACCIÓN

COINCIDENCIAOFAC

NOEXISTE

CANTIDADES NOHABITUALES

COMPAÑÍADE TAXI

Identificación de Fuentes

Definiciónde losCaso

Preguntas

Identificacióndel entorno

Archivo delos informes

Gestióndel caso

Presentación(INFORMES)

Preparaciónde los Informes

Elaboración deconclusiones

Apertura delos casos

Creaciónde los casos

Recursosa utilizar

Definiciónde los roles

de investigación

Descubrimientoy detección de

evidencias

Adquisiciónde información

Análisis y revisión

Desarrollo delos casos

Gestión de los proyectos

Desarrollo y gestión de casos de investigación

basada en métodos de inteligencia investigativa basada en evidencias

Training in methodologies for investigation and analysis management

Training in advancedinvestigation and analysissoftware

Advice in investigation and analysis of cases

Analysismethods

Synthesismethods

Analysistechniques

Synthesistechniques

Ana

lyst

Men

tor

Training in investigation and analysis techniques(160 certified techniques)

Training in StructuredThinking techniques

Structured thinkingmethods and techniques

Investigation and analysissoftware and IT systems

Analyst TrainingTraining in EVIDENCE-LAB V-II methodology

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Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 10Potential users of Analyst helper services

• Ministries.• Police forces.• The army.• Regional governments.• City councils.• Public administration agencies.• Large companies.• Educational institutions.• Foundations.• SMEs.• Think-Tanks.• Political organizations.• Supranational organizations.• NGOs.• Virtual communities of knowledge workers.• Consultancies.• Information superiority and intelligence portals.• High executives and their assistants.• VIP (World-class Decision Makers).

• Corporate strategy departments.• Business development departments.• Departamentos de expansión.• Support functions to general directions.• Marketing departments.• Sales departments.• Systems and organization departments.• Public opinion observatories.• Research units.• Auditing units.• Fraud detection units.• Customer service departments: complaint management.• Public administration cabinets.• Foundations and social studies centres.• Police and judicial investigation units.• Governmental intelligence units.• Military intelligence units• State institutions.• Investigative journalism teams.• Inquiry committees.• Technology surveillance centres.• …“In general, we can say that Structured Thinking and

Scientific Intelligence contribute and supports all other fields; in other terms, it has a key role within any human organization”.

José Martín Juárez

2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved

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Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 11ANALYST HELPER TRAINING. Reference rates

IVA no incluido

Deliverables Budget. € Time

Analyst Helper Training

Training seminars on meta-procedures of “Structured Thinking” and techniques of analysis and synthesis.

STEP-THROUGH Introductory doctrinal training, based on “Structured Thinking”, in strategy, investigation, analysis and Strategic Information production organizations and technologies. (4 hours). Minimum 5 attendees.

900 €/attendee

1 day

METAPRO Training & coaching in a meta-procedure of Strategic Structured Thinking. (4 sessions of 4 hours, 10 practical exercises, 2 tutorials of 2 hours, 30 days online support). Minimum 5 attendees.

4.000 €/attendee

4 days

METHOD Training & coaching in a method of structured analysis. (2 sessions of 4 hours, 10 practical exercises, 1 tutorial of 2 hours, 15 days online support). Minimum 5 attendees.

2.000 €/attendee

2 days

SMARTKIDS Training & coaching in Structured Thinking for children (8-12 years), 10 sessions of 1 hour, 25 practical exercises, 2 tutorials 2 hours. At least 10 students.

600 €/attendee

10 days

OPEN MIND STUDENT

Training & coaching in Structured Thinking for pre and university students, (15 sessions of 2 hours, 50 exercises, 4 tutorials of 2 hours). At least 20 students.

900 €/attendee

15 days

Analyst Helper Training

Continuous training & coaching for analysts and investigators. (WORLD-CLASS ANALYST & HIGH EXECUTIVE TRAINING).

VIP ONE Personal training & coaching of an analyst, investigator, consultant or executive. 60.000 € 1 year

PACK-5 (5 attendees)

Training & coaching of a team of analysts, investigators, consultants or executives. 90.000 € 1 year

GROUP-25(25 attendees)

Training & coaching of a group of analysts, investigators, consultants or executives. 180.000 € 1 year

CORPORATE(100 attendees)

Training & coaching of cadres of analysts, managers... 600.000 € 1 year

VAT not included

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Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 12ANALYST MENTOR. Reference rates

Deliverables Budget € Time

Analyst Mentor Continuous assessment in investigation and analysis

ONECASE Assessment in a specific case. 18.000 € 1 year

Entry level Continuous assessment in investigation and analysis. Supporting 5 cases. 40.000 € 1 year

Case-25 Continuous assessment in investigation and analysis. Supporting 25 cases. 180.000 € 1 year

Case-50 Continuous assessment in investigation and analysis. Supporting 50 cases. 300.000 € 1 year

BINOMIO Personalized assessment to a VIP in investigation and analysis. 120.000 € 1 year

CASE-TEAM Training to an investigation and analysis team in Evidence Lab V-II methodology. Five users.

60.000 € 1 year

CASE-TEAM+TOOL Training to an investigation and analysis team in Evidence Lab V-II methodology and deployment of NOWIS Evidence Lab 5.1. Five users.

120.000 € 1 year

VAT not included

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1. Introduction to the scientific-technicalbasis of ANALYST HELPER

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• The process by which we move from a set of raw data to the creation of precise Strategic Information is what we call analysis.

• The core is the reasoning processes that create, from previously known information, new Strategic Information.

• For the analyst´s point of view, it is the process by which the evidence (information determined to be relevant to the issue discussed) is used to infer new information about the investigated subject: the target.

• Analysis should deal with evidence that are often inadequate, vague or of questionable origin.

Conceptual bases of Analyst Helper - I

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Actually, the process called "analysis" includes the processes of analysis and synthesis.

The study and systematic application of the analytic-synthetic reasoning processes, from theoretical and functional points of view, are the basis of the Structured Analysis.

In traditional analysis, there are two approaches:

• Intuitive analysis or “common sense”. This analysis focuses on a limited range of alternatives based on experience and aimed at satisfying primary needs of explanation. (Use individual and tacit mental models).

• Structured analysis. It follows the principles of Scientific Intelligence, directed to systematically consider all reasonable alternatives and explicitly represent all alternative solutions to understand the factors and actors analyzed.

Analyst Helper follows the guidelines of the Structured Thinking.

Conceptual bases of Analyst Helper - II

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Structured Thinking involves intentional application of strategies, methods and techniques to improve the cognitive-rational skills, and therefore, the efficient operation regardless of the application domain, of an individual, group, human organization or system.

JMJ-2010

Introduction to Structured Thinking and Scientific Intelligence

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From this scientific paradigm, thinking, as a brain activity, involves the mobilization of resources that we call "Ingenios" to a specific configuration according to the purpose. These resources provide support to all processes caused by internal or external stimulus, like objectives, results of other thoughts or genetic condition.

These resources or "Ingenios” are divided into two types:

1. Cognitive Ingenios: Resources inherent in every human that provide similar abilities to all human beings and are in the physiological basis of our brain, genetically determined but with the capacity of natural or deliberate development.

2. Rational Ingenios: Man-made resources that allows to organize, optimize and evaluate the thought processes. These resources also allow certain tasks to be easily replicated on machines such as computers via hardware and software devices.

As Minsky argues: “Each of our major Ways to Think results from turning certain resources on while turning certain others off—and thus changing some ways that our brains behave.”

Neurocybernetic bases of Structured Thinking - I

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Contrary to popular belief and what some "gurus of simplicity" broadcast, the set of cognitive and rational resources that are activated both when a person falls in love or to make a decision are similar in their basis, but with a configuration completely different in structure and sequence, while another set of resources are disactivated.

In this sense, we can define emotions as specific processes of thought aimed at strengthening other processes of thought of different sign. We will call the emotions from now on as cognitive abilities.

Neurocybernetic bases of Structured Thinking - II

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Thought processes involved in the instant infatuation of person A.EMOTIONAL MAXIMIZATION.

Thought processes involved in analyzing the profile of person A.RATIONAL MAXIMIZATION.

Thought processes involved in the systematic study of person A with the aim of establishing a personal relationship.DUAL STRUCTURED THINKING REFLEXIVE AND BALANCED

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Structured Thinking development will help to create an individual and collective consciousness more just, balanced, diverse and free.

Structured Thinking do not indoctrinate in values, although consider them natural and catalyst for thought processes, on the contrary, it constantly subject such values to a balanced and objective evaluation in line with the real world.

By a top-down approach, Structured Thinking allows to self-restructuring the way we perceive, understand, interpret, comprehend, act and influence the real world, and promotes the development and improvement of psychological, physiological and biochemical structures of the brain.

"Scientific Intelligence" is the scientific-technical discipline researching and developing the objectives of the "Structured Thinking" in an all encompassing approach.

JMJ, founder of the “Scientific Intelligence”, define it as “a discipline which studies intelligence as a singular, universal phenomenon, researching, designing, developing, improving and adapting the processes (thoughts) and products (knowledge and behavior) inherent to the phenomenon of Intelligence from cognitive, rational, biomimetic, and quantum approaches."

Scientific Intelligence and Structured Thinking - I

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Scientific Intelligence builds models, systems, processes, products and services that enhance human intelligence. Scientific Intelligence permits to implement educational programs, technological systems and social organizations aimed at better understanding, interpreting and comprehension of the real world and more and better influencing on it by adopting more efficient and balanced behavior.

Its origin dates back to the research made by JMJ to support innovation processes in the design of information production systems in support of intelligence organizations and military police.

JMJ noted a significant gap in science and technology due to lack of a discipline that comprehensively study and consider intelligence as a singular and universal fact.

That is, psychology studies intelligence essentially from a behavioral perspective, neuroscience studies the brain from a physiological point of view, neurocybernetics from the standpoint of the concurrent processes of energy and information, artificial intelligence from the point of view of creation and simulation of intelligent process and systems and so on.

Scientific Intelligence, fueled by these disciplines, borns with a purpose of functional utility through design, with a vocation and mission encompassing identifying and explaining the phenomenon of intelligence itself and all the existing and possible "intelligences”.

Scientific Intelligence and Structured Thinking - II

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The objectives of the research and design on Scientific Intelligence are:

• To identify the cognitive-rational skills and abilities that take part in the different thought processes that are set for any human activity.

• To research on the biochemical, physiological, neurocybernetic and systemic processes that support or enhance such abilities and skills.

• To design and develop strategies, methods and techniques to evaluate, improve and develop the efficiency of the thought processes, that is, what we think and how we think and, on that basis, how we perceive, understand, interpret, comprehend, act and influence in the real world (see the presentation on Differences between understanding, interpretation, understanding and influence.)

• To transfer the abovementioned strategies, methods and techniques to different groups, adapted to temporary, situational and intellectuals circumstances of each (analysts, children, adults, seniors, unemployed, students, executives, technicians, researchers, soldiers, laborers...).

• To design systems and organizations which are Structured Thinking intensive due to the nature of its mission such as investigation, analysis, problem management, strategic information production, information superiority, risk and opportunity management, etc.

Innovation objectives in Scientific Intelligence

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• JMJLAB has built a reference model for Scientific Intelligence systems that lead our innovation plan – a framework which allows the evaluation, diagnosis and improvement of organizational processes and behavior from a cognitive-rational approach - (Martín-Juárez 2010). Such reference model, is called INGENIOS RM (1st Generation).

• These major systems are composed of subsystems that consistently interact with each other in a complex model from a systemic point of view but progressive in terms of incorporation of these systems into the organizations. In other words, the incorporation of any of the systems and subsystems identified in the model is equivalent to the improvement of one or more cognitive or rational faculties in the organization, making it more intelligent in terms of the "Ingenios" or intellective resources incorporated.

JMJLAB Ingenios Reference Model 1st. Gen. - I

A JMJLAB SCIENTIFIC INTELLIGENCE DUAL SYSTEM REFERENCE Model –

1st. Generation - Cognitive & Rational Approach

Real World

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Socio-technical

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Communication

Socio-technical

System

Reasoning

Socio-technical

System

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• The name of the reference model is in honor of Spanish Juan Huarte de San Juan that, in the sixteenth century established, in a more or less explicit way, that in speaking of intelligence it was more judicious to describe it in terms of the mental faculties or "Ingenios". Our dual (cognitive-rational) model called “INGENIOS-RM” is the first generation of three planned which will incorporate the biomimetic and quantum approaches.

• The establishment of INGENIOS-RM has an important significance in several respects; on the one hand we can establish a framework for our research, design and development objectives in Scientific Intelligence while creating a global network of innovation around the model. On the other hand, defines a framework for how to study, evaluate and introduce improvements through innovation projects and processes into a human organization according to the level of cognitive and rational intelligence displayed in its processes, products, behaviors and organizational structures.

JMJLAB Ingenios Reference Model 1st. Gen. - II

Understanding System

PatternDetection and

Mng. STS

Risk & OpportunitiesStrategic STS

SituationalAwareness STS

Estimative & Predictive STS

StrategicInformation

Mng. STS

Reasoning System

ProblemSolving

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LearningSTS

Search & ReasoningSequences Mng.

STS

Recommendation& Judgement

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Communication System

Communications ProtocolMng. STS

Interaction STS

Translation & Interpretation

STS Affinity STS Broadcast STS

Knowledge System

KnowledgeAdquisitionPlanner STS

KnowledgeTask Analyzer

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Strategic System

Decision Management

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OperationsManagement

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Action PlannerSTS

Course of Actions

Development& Training STS

ImmediateResponse STS

CreativitySTS

CriticalThinking

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“A resource - or ingenio is a utility which increases the rational and/or cognitive capacity of the system that integrates it, and the organization where it is deployed.

(Martín-Juárez 2010).

An Ingenio is a dual (cognitive-rational) system.

Ingenios research, design and configuration into complex systems is the main activity of JMJLAB.

To date we have designed and developed more than fifty “Ingenios”, integrated over one hundred and identified more than three hundred.

Concept of “Ingenio” in "Scientific Intelligence"

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Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 25“Ingenios”, the core components of ScI systems

Understanding STS

Reasoning STS

Communication STS Strategic STS

Reasoning sts

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Services

Knowledge Packets

Managers

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Connectors

Coretechs

Devices

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Tizona Ingenios Component(Smart Information Repository)

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Designing dual systems involves a global reflection on all cognitive and rational resources that must come together in a consistent format.

Dual system for search and capture

Scientific Intelligence dual system

ISIS GLOBAL HUNTER 5.2Mass information search, gathering and monitoring system.

JMJLAB TARGET-SFMInformation gatheringmethodology

Dual system

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User:Cognitive system

IT system:Rational machine

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TYPES OF ”INGENIOS”

1. CORETECHS. Information processing technologies developed by WUNDERMAC or certificated developers enabling state-of-art processing capabilities. (e.g. smart repositories-Tizona, retrieval technologies - Global Hunter).

2. CONNECTORS: software components that integrate the processing capabilities with the functionality that they must endure. (e.g. connector between Retrieval and Translator).

3. FUNTIONAL BLOCKS. Software applications that support advanced functionality in the process of Scientific Intelligence operation defined by the socio-technical model (e.g. source weighting, hypotheses verifier).

4. MANAGERS. Software applications that interact with the system operators and govern the "Functional Blocks" on the basis of the methodological model. (e.g. collection manager, annual intelligence plan manager, event manager).

5. KNOWLEDGE PACKETS. System operation guidelines, with examples of use, knowledge "pills" and other e-learning products. (e.g. operation guide for the production of strategic risk assessment reports; training in planned event response; training in design and development of collection networks).

6. SERVICES. Technical and operational external support services that enable to extend the capabilities of the system or organization. (e.g. translation services).

7. DEVICES. Certified electronic devices to support efficient operation and management of the system. (Touch screens, integrated electronic whiteboards, etc.)..

8. INFRASTRUCTURES. Hardware, communications and other material support to an efficient, secure, fault tolerant, ergonomic environment, with predictive maintenance and resistant to harsh environmental conditions. (e.g. from server clustering, uninterruptible power supplies, cooling systems, process controllers, to carpet, chairs, tables, lighting, room arrangement, etc.).

Examples of dual “Ingenios”

Ingenios designed, developed or certified byJMJLAB y WUNDERMAC labs.

Intelligent data search and monitoring: GLOBAL HUNTER 5.2

Intelligent Database: TIZONA 5.1

Pattern Analysis: VISUAL LINK

Methodology for intelligent search and retrieval of information on key targets:TARGET-SFM

Evidence-basedinvestigation methodology: KPS-EELD Hypotheses manager:

ANALYST TOOLBOX 5.1

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2. Analyst Training Service

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Analyst Helper is the more advanced, comprehensive and sound set of coaching and training programs aimed at analysts and knowledge workers.

It increases the capacity to effectively understand and influence the real world in relation to the objectives established. It also allows learning techniques of continuous self-improvement in the reasoning processes of each individual.

ANALYST HELPER TRAINING

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WORLD-CLASS ANALYST & HIGH EXECUTIVE TRAINING. Annual program:

1. Doctrinal training and concepts of strategy, investigation, analysis and Structured Thinking.

2. Training in techniques of situational analysis.

3. Training in techniques of estimative analysis.

4. Training in methodologies of investigation, analysis and Strategic Information production.

5. Training in formal reasoning methods.

6. Training in design and development of analysis sequences.

7. Training in design and development of formal reasoning sequences.

8. Training in design and development of Strategic Information products.

9. Training in implementation and management of investigation, analysis and Strategic Information production units.

Main training and coaching program - I

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WORLD-CLASS ANALYST & HIGH EXECUTIVE TRAINING. Annual structure:

A. Nine training programs, three days each, 3 hours/day (81 hours), 120 theoretical exercises, 45 practical exercises, and 4 operational trainings per year of 3 days each, 3 hours / day (36 hours) with continuous support.

B. Teacher and coach: JMJ. He will individually and collectively meet with everyone to adapt the course content and schedules to specific objectives.

C. Materials and digital documentation with practical exercises.

D. Advanced software tools will be used throughout the course for investigation and analysis support.

E. Access to a knowledge base of documents on Structured Thinking, investigation, analysis and practical exercises.

F. Evaluación trimestral del grado y la forma de aplicación de los procedimientos y métodos de investigación y análisis.

G. Quarterly assessment of the implementation manner and degree of the investigation and analysis procedures and methods.

H. Quarterly assessment of structure and content quality of the investigation and analysis reports.

Main training and coaching program - II

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Throughout the training, student´s cognitive skills in information processing are fostered by studying, monitoring and improving their particular characteristics.

Cognitive model of information processing

Model of information processing in the human brain

STSR STM-WM LTM

Capacity High or unlimited Limited to around 7“chunks”

Unlimited

Storage Mode Accurate and sensory Repetition and review ofmaterial

Organized and relational

Duration Short (1 / 2 second for visual information)

Relative (18 secondswithout review)

Permanent

Information Loss Temporal fading Review of material orshift due to new information

Recovery failure or interference from other information

Stimulus ResponseShort-termsensoryrepository (STSR)

Short-termmemory (STM)

Working memory(WM)

Long-term memory (LTM)

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Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 33General methodology for the implementation of Structured Thinking

Steps in solving a case.

Bases of the methodology of evidence-based Structured Thinking.

Structuring thecase.

Define assumptions, methods and target questions explicitly.Identify the cognitive and rational reference structure for sequences of thought.Identify all bodies of knowledge involved, alternative views and conclusions.

Qualification of thesources and evidence

Identify the origin and quality of all sources of evidence. Classify them for their reliability.Check the methods of evidence collection. To study the accuracy of the evidence.

Reasoning from the evidence to the argument.

Check the validity of both the rational process (to ensure the absence of logical fallacies) and the cognitive process (to detect ways of cognitive error).Set up rational alternative arguments.Define the propagation of uncertainty from the evidence through the argumentation of conclusions.

Evaluating arguments and make decisions.

Understand and comprehend the real world subject to the problem.Define criteria and cognitive-rational decisions.Predicting the consequences of such decisions.Weigh the implications and alternative judgments.Decide and support such decision with objective rationality and cognitive consistency.

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AnalystInvestigatorExecutiveConsultant

Analyst Helper meta-procedures can significantly increase the cognitive and rational resources to understand the world and influence it.This unique set of knowledge tools is the result of many years of research and design by JMJ and his team.

Objectives of the Structured Thinking Meta-procedures

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Offers the analyst an environment for learning, designing and developing complex and sound strategies.

Allows designing robust and consistent processes for developing Strategic Information.

Environment that provides mechanisms for the systematic production of precision Strategic Information.

It allows to design information collection and evaluation strategies to elicit precise knowledge about targets.

It offers a set of procedures to build and manage physical, documentary or pattern evidence and evidence networks.

It allows to generate analysis plans and lines of investigation from existing evidence.

It is a method for designing Strategic Information products.

It allows to design templates and implement processes of reasoning and assessment from the evidence resulting from analysis.

From analysis results, it can be established the strategy of actors in front of challenge and conflict scenarios.

It provides methods to dissect documents and opinions in order to identify goals and intentions.

It establishes procedures for developing decisions and influence operations in the real world.

Set of procedures for checking logical fallacies and ways of cognitive error in the process of analysis.

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Methods tested, created or improved and approved by JMJLAB.

Methods for domain-independent analysis and synthesis - I

1. ADRE. Analysis of adversary´s reasoning.2. COG. Analysis of the strategic center of gravity.3. MACTOR. Analysis of actors´strategies.4. PROFILING Biographical analysis.5. MORPHOL. Morphological analysis.6. LINKA. Analysis of obvious relationships.7. NORA. Analysis of non-obvious relationships.8. SNA. Analysis of social networks.9. OWNPROFILE. Analysis of representations.10. PROBREST. Reformulation of problems.11. PROSCON. Pros and cons analysis.12. CDT. Convergent-divergent thinking.13. DECTREE. Decision Tree Analysis.14. EVENTTREE. Event Tree analysis.15. WRANK. Weighted ranking analysis.16. ACH. Analysis of competing hypotheses.17. BELIEFNET. Analysis of belief networks.18. KEPNER-TREGOE. Problem analysis.19. SGP. Problem solving analysis.20. MULTIPOL. Multicriteria decision analysis.21. PROCCESS-MAP. Process maps.22. DELPHI. Analysis of expert panels.23. PROBEXPERT. Probability analysis based on experts.24. ISHIKAWA. Cause and effect analysis.25. SWOR. Threat panel analysis.

26. PESTEL . Analysis of external factors (environment).27. SLEIPNIR. Analysis of organized groups.28. FUTURE WHEELS. Analysis of consequences.29. BOBROW GAMES. Compensation game analysis.30. SCAME. Propaganda analysis.31. LINCHPIN. Error minimization analysis in complex

argumentations.32. TIME IMPACT. Trend analysis.33. TIMELIME. Correlation analysis of events in time.34. FORCEFIELD. Analysis of enablers and inhibitors of actions.35. KINEMATIC. Kinematic analysis.36. DMINING. Analysis of data patterns.37. STRUCT. Structural analysis.38. TEXTMINING. Text pattern analysis.39. ANALOGY. Situation analysis based on analogy.40. WAR GAMING. War games analysis.41. LIFELINE. Behavior analysis.42. CYBERMODELS. Cybernetic model-based analysis.43. ECIM. Critical incident analysis.44. CDM. Critical decision Analysis.45. BAYESIAN. Bayesian analysis.46. REGRES. Regression Analysis.47. PROBDIAGRAMS. Probability diagram analysis.48. IMAGERY. Image analysis.49. CONTENT. Content analysis.50. SOUND. Sound analysis.

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Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 36Methods for domain-independent analysis and synthesis - II

51. STATAN. Statistical analysis.52. ABC. ABC analysis.53. SCENE. Scene analysis.54. TRENDA. Trend analysis.55. THREATAN. Threat analysis.56. GTA. Goal-oriented task analysis.57. WAFOS. Stress analysis.58. HTA. Analysis of hierarchy of tasks.59. RETRO. Retrospective analysis.60. ATTLIST. Analysis of attribute lists.61. FCB GRID. Analysis of large volumes of information.62. THORNDIKE. Analysis of stories.63. SCENARIOS. Analysis of scenarios.64. JANUSIAN. Situation analysis based on paradoxes.65. HYPNOGOGIC. Analysis of mental images.66. DAVINCI. Analysis of graphic patterns.67. FANTASYQ. Analysis based on metaphors.68. PSYGE. Psychogeographical Analysis.69. INCUBATION. Analysis of challenges / goals.70. RANDOM STIMULATION. Situation

analysis based on stimulation of random terms.71. SERVO. Analysis of initiatives.72. VUA. Vulnerability analysis.73. INFFLOW. Analysis of information flows.74. EVENTFLOW. Analysis of event flows.75. FAULT-TREE. Error tree analysis.76. PARETO. Pareto analysis.77. CROSSIMPACT. Cross-impact analysis.

78. NEUBEH. Behavior analysis based on neural networks.79. GENEBEH. Behavior analysis based on genetic algorithms.80. RWARNINGS. Risk warning analysis.81. OWARNINGS. Opportunity warning analysis.82. RISKA. Risk analysis.83. OPTA. Opportunity analysis.84. CSFA. Analysis of critical success factors.85. MILLCA. Causality analysis.86. INDISUA. Deterrence situation analysis.87. OPTIMAT. Optimal threat analysis.88. NASHEQ. Analysis of Nash equilibria.89. OCCAM. Status Analysis.90. KAHN. Situation analysis based on the escalation ladder.91. BRANK. Analysis of credibility rankings.92. ALT-FUTURES. Analysis of alternative futures.93. MIC-MAC. Analysis of key variables of a system.94. TABLETOP. Task Analysis.95. FORMA. Form Analysis.96. INTERA. Analysis of interviews.97. FORCEAN. Analysis of conflicting forces.98. POLEMO. Polemological analysis.99. TCA. Technology analysis.100.BMA. Business models analysis.101. CSA. Cultural systems analysis.

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Products of evidence-based structured analysis (hundreds)

Products (analytical evidence) of the certified A/S techniques

H1: Steve WillGive Talk

E: Steve isVisitor

P(E) = 1.

P(H1|E) = .95

H: Visit will Be success

H2: Talk willBe good

H3: Steve WillMeet Faculty

H4: Faculty Meetings Will go well

H5: Steve WillMeet Graduate

Students

H6: GS Meetings Will go well

P(H2|H1) = 2/3

P(H|H2) = 3/4

P(H3|E, H2) = .95

P(H3|H2) = .5

P(H|H4) = .85P(H|H6) = .65

P(H5|E) = .60

P(H6|H5) = .8P(H3|H2) = ..8

Bayesian Belief Network

MissionTypeBlueAttack 100

BlueRescue 0

RedAttack 0

WithDraw 0

Distance Al 0

FiringRange 0

Nearby 100

Distant 0

AngleOff Facing 100

Glancing 0

Perpendicular 0

Away 0

Attacking targetTrue 0

False 100

FireSupport None 0

Couple 100

Few 0

Many 0

MoveSupportNone 0

Couple 100

Few 0

Many 0

FrendlyDensity Isolated 0

Moderate 100

High 0

Cover None 0

Moderate 100

High 0

TargetDensity Isolated 0

Moderate 100

High 0

AtackPosition Rear 0

Flank 0

Front 100

Defend True 70.0

False 30.0

0 5 10 15 20 25

5

10

15

20

25

30

Time T1Time T2Time T3Time T4

Alias P.A.N.M.

P.H. Pitharny

Louis HandsomeJp. Donarthy

Alias “Jones”

People

Hanjai Jonaby

Muhamar Hanjadar

B.B. Blubingier

Khar Jharti

Leonard P. WilsonGardai Hunini

33-348976546667983211

45-6798321100-456143260 VISA 34232245678

VISA 34232245678

22-34897654

MC 456143260MC 456143260 MC 456143260

Communications

01-555-343-6789

01-555-343-5456

01-888-343-6789

06-555-378-6789

01-555-343-6789

01-775-343-678901-555-366-6789

01-555-343-6789

01-777-478-7676

01-555-343-6789

01-555-343-678901-555-343-6789

1. Competitor’s objectives.2. Competitor’s emotional state.3. Competitor’s behavioural patterns and

preferences.4. Competitor’s plans.5. Anticipating a competitor’s activities.6. A competitor’s manipulation and traps.7. Determination of an organization’s strategic

centre of gravity.8. Social and psychological profiling of a person or

group.9. Discovery of hidden relationships between

people or organizations.10. Determination of the type of relationship of a

person or organization.11. A person’s or organization’s past and present

social network and future intentions.12. Profiles and perceptions of people and/or

organizations on others.13. Alternate ways of approaching problems and

solutions.14. Alternative decisions according to the situation

and objectives.15. Determination of future events according to the

events that happened up to the present.16. Establishment of credibility rankings in reports,

people and organizations.17. Determination of the cost benefit of certain

objectives and activities.

18. Determination of the processes that can lead to an event or situation.

19. Weighting of expert opinions on a topic.20. Determination of the recompense required to

carry out an activity.21. Establishment of escalation tendencies in a

situation or conflict.22. Determination of the players’ forces at the scene

of a possible operation.23. Determination of the players’ strategy at the

scene of a possible operation.24. Disposition of an target’s forces according to

their geographic situation.25. Determination of the significance of tendencies

and numerical patterns in people, objects and organizations.

26. Determination of the real structure of an organization.

27. Detection of explanatory patterns in texts.28. Recognition and foresight of situations by

analogies with other situations or cases.29. Mathematical models of the behaviour of the

explanatory variables of a phenomenon in the real world.

30. Dynamic simulation of situations.31. Association matrixes.32. Alternative hypotheses tables that compete

between themselves according to the evidence captured at time t.

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Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 38Example of an operative training

1. Opportunity Warning: Own intention and capacity to position ourselves advantageously and specific vulnerabilities of the counterparties.

2. Scenario: Crisis or event on a potential merger.3. Summary: The Team of Intelligence must respond to an urgent request from direction to analyze the 72 hours next to a crisis

resulting from a potential merger.

3. Pre-conditions of the process:a. Information registered in the capture system on the involved entities.b. Prior knowledge and intelligence on the activities involved.

4. Post-conditions of the process (deliverables):a. Hourly Information Notes.b. Daily Evidence-based Intelligence Reportc. Final report after 72 hours.

5. Basic flow:a. Managers deliver a predefined signed MEMO to the Head of Analysis, identifying intelligence needs, priorities and response time.b. The Head of Analysis introduces the requests into the predefined template and disseminates the MEMO to the people assigned by

the system and:i. Identifies the targets of interest.ii. Checks out the specific information needs.iii. Prioritizes needs.iv. Establishes safety, planning, dissemination and resource allocation requirements.v. Endorses the requirements.

c. The Head of Analysis creates the work plan according to requirements.d. xxxx. The Head of Analysis approves the final report's release.

6. Alternative flow: PCR012 7. Revision: 3.2 9-03.06 8. Associated procedures 9. Associated training

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Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 39Skills to get through ANALYST TRAINING

Sternberg: According to his research, the meaning of intelligence involves three main sets of skills:

• Ability to solve problems.

• Verbal ability.

• Social competence.

ANALYST TRAINING in all formats allows individuals, groups, professionals or knowledge workers in any organization to improve the three aspects described by Sternberg.

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Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 40Skills to obtain in dealing with problems

1. Reason logically and well.2. Identify connections among ideas.3. See all aspects of a problem.4. Keep an open mind.5. Respond to others' ideas.6. Size up situations well.7. Get the core of the problems.8. Interpret information accurately.9. Make good decisions.10. Go to original sources for basic information.11. Pose problems clearly. 12. Be a good source of ideas.13. Perceive implied assumptions and conclusions .14. Listen to all ideas of an argument.15. Address problems with all possible resources.

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Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 41Skills to obtain in communication

1. Speak clearly, fluently and articulately.

1. Converse well

2. Be knowledgeable about a particular subject.

3. Read correctly.

4. Take time to read.

5. Social Competence.

6. Write without difficulty.

7. Display an ample vocabulary.

8. Accept social norms.

9. Follow new thoughts.

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Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 42Skills to obtain in social competence

1. Accept diversity.

2. Admit mistakes.

3. Display interest in the world at large.

4. Have a social conscience.

5. Think before speaking and doing.

6. Do not make hasty judgments.

7. Make fair judgments.

8. Be open and upright with oneself and with others.

9. Display interest in the immediate environment.

10. Be sensitive to other people's needs and desires.

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3. Analyst Mentor Service

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Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 44ANALYST MENTOR

Continuous advisory service covering any situation that may occur in an organization, both private (companies) or public (government).

The work unit is called CASE.

In each CASE (customer request for advice), the advisory team will provide a recommendation about what to do and how to proceed by means of an advisory report released electronically or through a meeting. Also there will be a continuous monitoring to close the CASE with a joint report by the client and the adviser.

Exclusive treatment:

• The international expert, designer and advisor on Scientific Intelligence, JMJ, together with his team, is directly involved in all cases, guiding, focusing and monitoring.

• The customer deals directly with JMJ and his team of assistants.

• Personalized support to 12x7x365.

Confidentiality and restriction of competition:

• The content of all our advising cases, the names of our customers and the type of problem solved is secret.

• In case of permanent advisory contracts, we do not work, unless authorized, with countries or companies directly competing or antagonistic to our customers.

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Types of Cases to be discussed at ANALYST MENTOR:

1. Monitoring of environments of interest and key targets.2. Investigation and analysis of situations.3. Design and development of strategies.4. Support to strategic decision making.5. Design and development of operational actions.6. Detection and management of risks and opportunities.7. Dealing with problems.8. Conflict management.9. Influence operations through information, counter-information,

awareness and propaganda.10. Design and development of corporate operations.11. Design and development of rapid response operations.12. Corporate strategic plans.

ANALYST MENTOR Objectives

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Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 46Evidence-based assessment.

The service uses an evidence-based consultative approach to give a precise support to the catalog of situations defined in the service.

Traditional consulting:

• Lack of a sound methodological environment.

• Based on some expert opinions.

• Too much information, little evidence.

• Lack of a solid domain-independent analytical framework.

• Mismanagement of resources for investigation and analysis.

• Mismanagement of the experts of the organization.

• Low quality information products.

• Plan interventions without guarantees and simplistic in many cases.

Evidence-based consulting:

• Comprehensive and consistent methodology.

• Simple and integrated operation model to capture, evaluate, analyze and report all the information needed to support the intervention plan.

• Strong and broad analytical framework.

• Aimed at obtaining evidence, efficient decision making and timely development of actions to influence and impact.

• Accurate and structured information products.

• Intervention plan precise in content, shape, means and time.

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Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 47Evidence-based investigation and analysis methodology

ANALYST MENTOR advisory methodology (Evidence-Lab V-II): All processes are focused on planning, search, identification, management, analysis of evidence and making judgments through formal reasoning processes.

Sourceidentification

Definiciónde losCaso

Questions

Environmentidentification

Reportarchiving

Gestióndel caso

Presentation(REPORTS)

Reportpreparation

Drawing conclusions

Caseopening

Creaciónde los casos

Resources

Definingthe roles of

investigators

EvidenceDiscovery

and detection

Informationacquisition

Analysisand review

Casedevelopment

Project management

Development andmanagement of evidence-based

investigation cases

Casedefinition

Casecreation

Casemanagement

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Techniques for planning and development of investigation and analysis projects:

1. Planning:

• Defining the investigation problem.

• Identification of investigation requirements.

• Definition and planning of investigation projects.

2. Development:

• Preparation of investigation cases.

• Information collection.

• Development of the investigations.

• Investigation dissemination.

Planning and development of investigation and analysis projects

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Definir el problema de investigación:

• Who need to know what is happening?

• What do they need to know and argue with precision?

• Where do they need to know?

• When do they need to know in order to chronologically plan the project properly?

• Why do they need to know? and what actions are possible to carry out?

• How do they need to know, that is, the format? A dossier, a design, forensics, executive summary, visual diagram, report face to face.

• What levels and procedures of confidentiality are going to be applied?

Determine the investigation requirements:

• What is happening? What is the investigation problem?

• Who or what are the entities and elements (factors, objects, etc.) to investigate?

• Where are we going to develop the investigation? and where are we going to get the information from?

• When and how does the phenomenon begin, develop and manifest?

• Why is this phenomenon occurring? That is, what are factors, internal or external to the customer, that cause the phenomenon?

Planning techniques for projects of analysis and investigation - I

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Define the investigation projects.

• Role and importance of the facts.

• Role and importance of the analysis and interpretation.

• Intelligence production approach to choose.

• Information-gathering tasks involved.

• Analytical tasks involved.

• Information-gathering methods to use.

• Analytical methods to use.

• Data collection instruments to use.

• Analysis tools to use.

• Project management tools to use.

• Project timelines.

Planning techniques for projects of analysis and investigation - II

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Case definition:• Identification and codification of investigation issues.• Identification and codification of information sources • Identification of the investigation environment.

Case creation:• Register the case.• Assign resourses.• Definition and identification of investigation roles.

Case development:• Establishment of criteria for case management.• Information acquisition.• Evidence discovery.• Evidence analysis and review of the investigation process.

Case management:• Review of results.• Investigation product preparation (reports).• Case archiving.• Case pesentation and delivery.

Investigation case management and development

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The Advisory Service has the following structure:

A. Continuous online advice from 9.30 to 22.00 hours, 365 days a year.

B. Advisory team led by JMJ.

C. Online registration of requests for advice (Cases).

D. A biweekly meeting with the client for planning and case management.

E. Limit: 25 cases per year.

Basic service structure

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This presentation is the property of JMJLab and may only be presented to authorized audiences. This presentation may contain confidential information which is subject to property rights or other laws and may not be copied, distributed or publicly presented without prior express permission given in writing by JMJLab Complex Systems.

© 2008-2011 JMJLab Complex Systems. All rights reserved.

Copyright

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