analyst helper. training, investigation and analysis based on structured thinking
DESCRIPTION
Analyst Helper. A service platform based on "Structured Thinking" ans "Scientific Intelligence" that allows to train, coach and advise analysts, investigators, and knowledge workers in general, and provide them with significant resources in the form of doctrine, strategies, methods, tecniques, systems, organizations and tools.TRANSCRIPT
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Analyst Helper. Introductory Presentation
15-10-2010
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 2
ANALYST HELPER is a set of training, coaching and advising services on investigation and analysis based on the discipline of Scientific Intelligence applied to Structured Thinking.It has been designed to train elite analysts from various fields, but can be applied to any person, professional, collective or organization.
“Only the best train the rest” JMJ-2010
ANALYST HELPER
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 3
According to Lewin, analysis is the process in which the constituent parts of what is being analyzed are identified as for the relationships between them to gain a better understanding of how the entire entity and their parts are made and work.
Definition of Analysis
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 4
The one which is competent to determine the precise problem, set targets and issues, design, develop and manage a data collection plan, manage the processing of such data and disseminating the intelligence product according to demand of the organization or client.
The analyst as investigator
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 5
“The rules of the game: learn everything, read everything, inquire into everything… When two texts, or two assertions, or perhaps two ideas, are in contradiction, be ready to reconcile them rather than cancel one by the other; regard them as two different facets, or two successive stages, of the same reality, a reality convincingly human just because it is complex.”
Marguerite Yourcenar, Memoirs of Hadrian
The analyst and complexity
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 6
“ Solid intelligence on terrorism is not easy to develop… I would like to salute the unsung heroes of the struggle against terrorism. These heroes are the intelligence analysts. Often they have little to go on: a photograph, a fragment of an overheard conversation, the text of a communiqué, the summary of a meeting, a used airline ticket. Sometimes, it is like piecing together a gigantic jigsaw puzzle, but it is a puzzle that can save lives.”
George Shultz
Former Secretary of State
THE INTELLIGENCE ANALYST: The TOP analyst
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 7
JMJLAB has developed a service platform based on "Structured Thinking" and “Scientific Intelligence” that allows to train, coach and advise analysts, investigators and knowledge workers in general and provide them with significant resources in the form of doctrines, strategies, methods, techniques, systems, organizations and tools. We call this platform Analyst Helper.
Introduction to Analyst Helper - I
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 8
• It is a platform of knowledge and services for investigation and analysis aimed at any knowledge worker in general (consultants, scientists, lawyers, managers, advisors, journalists, etc.) and at the body of professional analysts in particular (financial, marketing, political, military, police investigators, social or scientific analysts).
• It was designed by JMJ after more than 15 years of research in this field.
• It is in constant process of improvement and innovation.
• In 2011 the platform will have a Portal version aimed to the global community of analysts.
Introduction to Analyst Helper - II
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 9ANALYST HELPER. Training and advising platform
Advanced platform for continuous training, coaching and advising
H1: Steve WillGive Talk
E: Steve isVisitor
P(E) = 1.
P(H1|E) = .95
H: Visit will Be success
H2: Talk willBe good
H3: Steve WillMeet Faculty
H4: Faculty Meetings Will go well
H5: Steve WillMeet Graduate
Students
H6: GS Meetings Will go well
P(H2|H1) = 2/3
P(H|H2) = 3/4
P(H3|E, H2) = .95
P(H3|H2) = .5
P(H|H4) = .85P(H|H6) = .65
P(H5|E) = .60
P(H6|H5) = .8P(H3|H2) = ..8
Bayesian Belief Network
MissionTypeBlueAttack 100
BlueRescue 0
RedAttack 0
WithDraw 0
Distance Al 0
FiringRange 0
Nearby 100
Distant 0
AngleOff Facing 100
Glancing 0
Perpendicular 0
Away 0
Attacking targetTrue 0
False 100
FireSupport None 0
Couple 100
Few 0
Many 0
MoveSupportNone 0
Couple 100
Few 0
Many 0
FrendlyDensity Isolated 0
Moderate 100
High 0
Cover None 0
Moderate 100
High 0
TargetDensity Isolated 0
Moderate 100
High 0
AtackPosition Rear 0
Flank 0
Front 100
Defend True 70.0
False 30.0
0 5 10 15 20 25
5
10
15
20
25
30
Time T1Time T2Time T3Time T4
Alias P.A.N.M.
P.H. Pitharny
Louis HandsomeJp. Donarthy
Alias “Jones”
People
Hanjai Jonaby
Muhamar Hanjadar
B.B. Blubingier
Khar Jharti
Leonard P. WilsonGardai Hunini
33-348976546667983211
45-6798321100-456143260 VISA 34232245678
VISA 34232245678
22-34897654
MC 456143260MC 456143260 MC 456143260
Communications
01-555-343-6789
01-555-343-5456
01-888-343-6789
06-555-378-6789
01-555-343-6789
01-775-343-678901-555-366-6789
01-555-343-6789
01-777-478-7676
01-555-343-6789
01-555-343-678901-555-343-6789
1. Objetivos de un competidor.2. Estado emocional de un competidor.3. Patrones y preferencias de un competidor.4. Planes de un competidor.5. Anticipación de las acciones de un
competidor.6. Manipulación y trampas de un competidor.7. Determinación del centro de gravedad
estratégico de una organización.8. Establecimiento de perf iles sociales y
psicológicos de una persona o grupo.9. Descubrimiento de relaciones ocultas entre
personas u organizaciones.10. Determinación del tipo de relaciones de una
persona u organización.11. Red social pasada, presente y de intención
futura de una persona u organización.12. Perf iles y percepciones de las personas y u
organizaciones sobre otras.13. Vías alternativas de planteamiento de
problemas y soluciones.14. Alternativas de decisión en función de la
situación y los objetivos.15. Determinación de eventos futuros en
función de los eventos acaecidos en hasta el presente.
16. Establecimiento de rankings de credibilidad en informaciones ,personas y organizaciones.
17. Determinación del costo-benef icio de ciertos objetivos y acciones.
18. Determinación de los procesos que pueden conducir a un evento o situación.
19. Ponderaciones de opiniones de expertos sobre un tema.
20. Determinación de las compensaciones necesarias para realizar una acción
21. Establecimiento de las tendencias de escalada en una situación o conf licto.
22. Determinación de las fuerzas de los actores en un escenario de operación posible .
23. Determinación de la estrategia de los actores en un escenario de operación posible.
24. Disposición de las fuerzas de un objetivo en función de su situación geográf ica.
25. Determinación del signif icado de tendencias y patrones numéricos en personas, objetos y organizaciones.
26. Determinación de la estructura real de una organización.
27. Detección de patrones explicativos en textos.28. Reconocimiento y previsión de situaciones
por analogías con otras situaciones o casos.29. Modelos matemáticos de comportamientos
de las variables explicativas de un fenómeno del mundo real.
30. Simulación dinámica de situaciones.31. Matrices de asociación.32. Cuadros de hipótesis alternativas que
compiten entre si en función de las evidencias captadas en el momento t.
1. Estructura de un consejo de administración.2. Empresas vinculadas en un sector.3. Curriculums disponibles sobre una habilidad.4. Documentos disponibles sobre una tecnología.5. Transacciones o llamadas desde una cuenta.6. Informaciones disponibles sobre una empresa.
7. Relaciones entre empresas o personas.8. Relaciones entre publicaciones o blogs.9. Mapas tecnológicos de investigadores o centros I+D10. Noticias relacionadas en un determinado momento.11. Actores y relaciones en un sector determinado.12. Informaciones disponibles sobre una empresa.
13. Perfil electrónico de un ejecutivo.14. Relaciones de un ejecutivo.15. Escritos y publicaciones de un ejecutivo.16. Videos y grabaciones de audio disponible sobre
conferencias.17. Presentaciones realizadas por un ejecutivo.18. Biografía extendida.
19. Seguimiento de eventos empresariales.20. Seguimiento del ciclo de vida de un producto.21. Seguimiento de patentes.22. Movimientos públicos de competidores en un
momento determinado.23. Seguimiento de operaciones corporativas.24. Envío de alertas predeterminadas.
25. Detección de palabras clave en documentos de audio.
26. Monitorización de medios locales.27. Transcripción y análisis de textos.28. Seguimiento de campañas.29. Envío de alertas y posicionamiento de video y
audio
30. Georeferenciación de clientes.31. Georeferenciación de oportunidades.32. Georeferenciación de infraestructuras33. Detección y envío de alertas geográficas.34. Detección de rutas.35. Localización de actores y relaciones de proximidad.
Evidencias
Conjeturar para formar una hipótesis
generalizada
Ensamblar la evidencia en el
marco generalizado de discernimiento
Validar la nueva probabilidad de
la hipótesis
Conjeturar la mejor explicación de las
evidencias
Ensamblar evidencias que mejor enmarquen el
proceso de discernimiento
Evaluar múltiples probabilidades de
hipótesis
Búsqueda de evidencias para afirmar nuevas
hipótesisConjeturar nuevas hipótesis
Hipótesis apta para pruebas con plantillas conocidas
Evaluación de probabilidades de múltiples
hipótesis
Retroducción
Deducción
Abducción
Inducción
Detección
Conjeturar un patrón general de ataques a través de todas las categorías de objetivos
8 Descubrimiento
12
3
4
5
6
7
Tratamos de encontrar alguna evidencia de patrones conocidos en ataques previos
Tratamos de encontrar alguna evidencia que indique nuevos patrones de ataque en otra clase de objetivos
La evidencias parecen indicar otras clases de ataques a objetivos
Explicación
La más probable explicación de la
evidencia produce razones
para la alerta
No encaja,pe
ro que ocurre
con ataques con el mismoMO a otros
ojetivos
Validar una estrategia de
ataque general
E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6
E7E8 E9
i1
i2Conflicto
i5
i3
i4i9
H1: es una guarnición militarH0: es una fábrica de jabón
Hipótesis acerca de la situación de la fábrica H={H0,H1}
i10
i11
i12
i13
i14
i15i16
i17
i18
i19
i20
i21
i6
i7
i8
Redundante
Consonante
Evidencia
Inferenciasde credibilidad
Inferenciasde relevancia
Hipótesis final
Disminuye
Aumenta
CLIENTECLIENTE TELÉFONOTELÉFONO
DIRECCIÓNDIRECCIÓNCLIENTECLIENTE
CLIENTECLIENTE
CLIENTECLIENTE
DIRECCIÓNDIRECCIÓN
DIRECCIÓN
CLIENTECLIENTE
TELÉFONOTELÉFONO
TRANSACCIÓNTRANSACCIÓN
TRANSACCIÓNTRANSACCIÓN
TRANSACCIÓNTRANSACCIÓNTRANSACCIÓNTRANSACCIÓN
COINCIDENCIAOFAC
NOEXISTE
CANTIDADES NOHABITUALES
COMPAÑÍADE TAXI
Identificación de Fuentes
Definiciónde losCaso
Preguntas
Identificacióndel entorno
Archivo delos informes
Gestióndel caso
Presentación(INFORMES)
Preparaciónde los Informes
Elaboración deconclusiones
Apertura delos casos
Creaciónde los casos
Recursosa utilizar
Definiciónde los roles
de investigación
Descubrimientoy detección de
evidencias
Adquisiciónde información
Análisis y revisión
Desarrollo delos casos
Gestión de los proyectos
Desarrollo y gestión de casos de investigación
basada en métodos de inteligencia investigativa basada en evidencias
Training in methodologies for investigation and analysis management
Training in advancedinvestigation and analysissoftware
Advice in investigation and analysis of cases
Analysismethods
Synthesismethods
Analysistechniques
Synthesistechniques
Ana
lyst
Men
tor
Training in investigation and analysis techniques(160 certified techniques)
Training in StructuredThinking techniques
Structured thinkingmethods and techniques
Investigation and analysissoftware and IT systems
Analyst TrainingTraining in EVIDENCE-LAB V-II methodology
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 10Potential users of Analyst helper services
• Ministries.• Police forces.• The army.• Regional governments.• City councils.• Public administration agencies.• Large companies.• Educational institutions.• Foundations.• SMEs.• Think-Tanks.• Political organizations.• Supranational organizations.• NGOs.• Virtual communities of knowledge workers.• Consultancies.• Information superiority and intelligence portals.• High executives and their assistants.• VIP (World-class Decision Makers).
• Corporate strategy departments.• Business development departments.• Departamentos de expansión.• Support functions to general directions.• Marketing departments.• Sales departments.• Systems and organization departments.• Public opinion observatories.• Research units.• Auditing units.• Fraud detection units.• Customer service departments: complaint management.• Public administration cabinets.• Foundations and social studies centres.• Police and judicial investigation units.• Governmental intelligence units.• Military intelligence units• State institutions.• Investigative journalism teams.• Inquiry committees.• Technology surveillance centres.• …“In general, we can say that Structured Thinking and
Scientific Intelligence contribute and supports all other fields; in other terms, it has a key role within any human organization”.
José Martín Juárez
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 11ANALYST HELPER TRAINING. Reference rates
IVA no incluido
Deliverables Budget. € Time
Analyst Helper Training
Training seminars on meta-procedures of “Structured Thinking” and techniques of analysis and synthesis.
STEP-THROUGH Introductory doctrinal training, based on “Structured Thinking”, in strategy, investigation, analysis and Strategic Information production organizations and technologies. (4 hours). Minimum 5 attendees.
900 €/attendee
1 day
METAPRO Training & coaching in a meta-procedure of Strategic Structured Thinking. (4 sessions of 4 hours, 10 practical exercises, 2 tutorials of 2 hours, 30 days online support). Minimum 5 attendees.
4.000 €/attendee
4 days
METHOD Training & coaching in a method of structured analysis. (2 sessions of 4 hours, 10 practical exercises, 1 tutorial of 2 hours, 15 days online support). Minimum 5 attendees.
2.000 €/attendee
2 days
SMARTKIDS Training & coaching in Structured Thinking for children (8-12 years), 10 sessions of 1 hour, 25 practical exercises, 2 tutorials 2 hours. At least 10 students.
600 €/attendee
10 days
OPEN MIND STUDENT
Training & coaching in Structured Thinking for pre and university students, (15 sessions of 2 hours, 50 exercises, 4 tutorials of 2 hours). At least 20 students.
900 €/attendee
15 days
Analyst Helper Training
Continuous training & coaching for analysts and investigators. (WORLD-CLASS ANALYST & HIGH EXECUTIVE TRAINING).
VIP ONE Personal training & coaching of an analyst, investigator, consultant or executive. 60.000 € 1 year
PACK-5 (5 attendees)
Training & coaching of a team of analysts, investigators, consultants or executives. 90.000 € 1 year
GROUP-25(25 attendees)
Training & coaching of a group of analysts, investigators, consultants or executives. 180.000 € 1 year
CORPORATE(100 attendees)
Training & coaching of cadres of analysts, managers... 600.000 € 1 year
VAT not included
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 12ANALYST MENTOR. Reference rates
Deliverables Budget € Time
Analyst Mentor Continuous assessment in investigation and analysis
ONECASE Assessment in a specific case. 18.000 € 1 year
Entry level Continuous assessment in investigation and analysis. Supporting 5 cases. 40.000 € 1 year
Case-25 Continuous assessment in investigation and analysis. Supporting 25 cases. 180.000 € 1 year
Case-50 Continuous assessment in investigation and analysis. Supporting 50 cases. 300.000 € 1 year
BINOMIO Personalized assessment to a VIP in investigation and analysis. 120.000 € 1 year
CASE-TEAM Training to an investigation and analysis team in Evidence Lab V-II methodology. Five users.
60.000 € 1 year
CASE-TEAM+TOOL Training to an investigation and analysis team in Evidence Lab V-II methodology and deployment of NOWIS Evidence Lab 5.1. Five users.
120.000 € 1 year
VAT not included
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 13
1. Introduction to the scientific-technicalbasis of ANALYST HELPER
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 14
• The process by which we move from a set of raw data to the creation of precise Strategic Information is what we call analysis.
• The core is the reasoning processes that create, from previously known information, new Strategic Information.
• For the analyst´s point of view, it is the process by which the evidence (information determined to be relevant to the issue discussed) is used to infer new information about the investigated subject: the target.
• Analysis should deal with evidence that are often inadequate, vague or of questionable origin.
Conceptual bases of Analyst Helper - I
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 15
Actually, the process called "analysis" includes the processes of analysis and synthesis.
The study and systematic application of the analytic-synthetic reasoning processes, from theoretical and functional points of view, are the basis of the Structured Analysis.
In traditional analysis, there are two approaches:
• Intuitive analysis or “common sense”. This analysis focuses on a limited range of alternatives based on experience and aimed at satisfying primary needs of explanation. (Use individual and tacit mental models).
• Structured analysis. It follows the principles of Scientific Intelligence, directed to systematically consider all reasonable alternatives and explicitly represent all alternative solutions to understand the factors and actors analyzed.
Analyst Helper follows the guidelines of the Structured Thinking.
Conceptual bases of Analyst Helper - II
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 16
Structured Thinking involves intentional application of strategies, methods and techniques to improve the cognitive-rational skills, and therefore, the efficient operation regardless of the application domain, of an individual, group, human organization or system.
JMJ-2010
Introduction to Structured Thinking and Scientific Intelligence
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 17
From this scientific paradigm, thinking, as a brain activity, involves the mobilization of resources that we call "Ingenios" to a specific configuration according to the purpose. These resources provide support to all processes caused by internal or external stimulus, like objectives, results of other thoughts or genetic condition.
These resources or "Ingenios” are divided into two types:
1. Cognitive Ingenios: Resources inherent in every human that provide similar abilities to all human beings and are in the physiological basis of our brain, genetically determined but with the capacity of natural or deliberate development.
2. Rational Ingenios: Man-made resources that allows to organize, optimize and evaluate the thought processes. These resources also allow certain tasks to be easily replicated on machines such as computers via hardware and software devices.
As Minsky argues: “Each of our major Ways to Think results from turning certain resources on while turning certain others off—and thus changing some ways that our brains behave.”
Neurocybernetic bases of Structured Thinking - I
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 18
Contrary to popular belief and what some "gurus of simplicity" broadcast, the set of cognitive and rational resources that are activated both when a person falls in love or to make a decision are similar in their basis, but with a configuration completely different in structure and sequence, while another set of resources are disactivated.
In this sense, we can define emotions as specific processes of thought aimed at strengthening other processes of thought of different sign. We will call the emotions from now on as cognitive abilities.
Neurocybernetic bases of Structured Thinking - II
I
I I l
I
II
I Il
I
I I
II
I
I
I I l
I
II
I Il
I
I I
II
I
I
I I l
I
II
I Il
I
I I
II
I
III
I
Cognitive Ingenio enabled
Cognitive Ingenio disabled
Rational Ingenio enabled
Rational Ingenio disabled
Brain
Machine
I
I I l
I
II
I Il
I
I I
II
II II I I II II I I I
Thought processes involved in the instant infatuation of person A.EMOTIONAL MAXIMIZATION.
Thought processes involved in analyzing the profile of person A.RATIONAL MAXIMIZATION.
Thought processes involved in the systematic study of person A with the aim of establishing a personal relationship.DUAL STRUCTURED THINKING REFLEXIVE AND BALANCED
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 19
Structured Thinking development will help to create an individual and collective consciousness more just, balanced, diverse and free.
Structured Thinking do not indoctrinate in values, although consider them natural and catalyst for thought processes, on the contrary, it constantly subject such values to a balanced and objective evaluation in line with the real world.
By a top-down approach, Structured Thinking allows to self-restructuring the way we perceive, understand, interpret, comprehend, act and influence the real world, and promotes the development and improvement of psychological, physiological and biochemical structures of the brain.
"Scientific Intelligence" is the scientific-technical discipline researching and developing the objectives of the "Structured Thinking" in an all encompassing approach.
JMJ, founder of the “Scientific Intelligence”, define it as “a discipline which studies intelligence as a singular, universal phenomenon, researching, designing, developing, improving and adapting the processes (thoughts) and products (knowledge and behavior) inherent to the phenomenon of Intelligence from cognitive, rational, biomimetic, and quantum approaches."
Scientific Intelligence and Structured Thinking - I
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 20
Scientific Intelligence builds models, systems, processes, products and services that enhance human intelligence. Scientific Intelligence permits to implement educational programs, technological systems and social organizations aimed at better understanding, interpreting and comprehension of the real world and more and better influencing on it by adopting more efficient and balanced behavior.
Its origin dates back to the research made by JMJ to support innovation processes in the design of information production systems in support of intelligence organizations and military police.
JMJ noted a significant gap in science and technology due to lack of a discipline that comprehensively study and consider intelligence as a singular and universal fact.
That is, psychology studies intelligence essentially from a behavioral perspective, neuroscience studies the brain from a physiological point of view, neurocybernetics from the standpoint of the concurrent processes of energy and information, artificial intelligence from the point of view of creation and simulation of intelligent process and systems and so on.
Scientific Intelligence, fueled by these disciplines, borns with a purpose of functional utility through design, with a vocation and mission encompassing identifying and explaining the phenomenon of intelligence itself and all the existing and possible "intelligences”.
Scientific Intelligence and Structured Thinking - II
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 21
The objectives of the research and design on Scientific Intelligence are:
• To identify the cognitive-rational skills and abilities that take part in the different thought processes that are set for any human activity.
• To research on the biochemical, physiological, neurocybernetic and systemic processes that support or enhance such abilities and skills.
• To design and develop strategies, methods and techniques to evaluate, improve and develop the efficiency of the thought processes, that is, what we think and how we think and, on that basis, how we perceive, understand, interpret, comprehend, act and influence in the real world (see the presentation on Differences between understanding, interpretation, understanding and influence.)
• To transfer the abovementioned strategies, methods and techniques to different groups, adapted to temporary, situational and intellectuals circumstances of each (analysts, children, adults, seniors, unemployed, students, executives, technicians, researchers, soldiers, laborers...).
• To design systems and organizations which are Structured Thinking intensive due to the nature of its mission such as investigation, analysis, problem management, strategic information production, information superiority, risk and opportunity management, etc.
Innovation objectives in Scientific Intelligence
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 22
• JMJLAB has built a reference model for Scientific Intelligence systems that lead our innovation plan – a framework which allows the evaluation, diagnosis and improvement of organizational processes and behavior from a cognitive-rational approach - (Martín-Juárez 2010). Such reference model, is called INGENIOS RM (1st Generation).
• These major systems are composed of subsystems that consistently interact with each other in a complex model from a systemic point of view but progressive in terms of incorporation of these systems into the organizations. In other words, the incorporation of any of the systems and subsystems identified in the model is equivalent to the improvement of one or more cognitive or rational faculties in the organization, making it more intelligent in terms of the "Ingenios" or intellective resources incorporated.
JMJLAB Ingenios Reference Model 1st. Gen. - I
A JMJLAB SCIENTIFIC INTELLIGENCE DUAL SYSTEM REFERENCE Model –
1st. Generation - Cognitive & Rational Approach
Real World
Info
rmat
ions
Act
ions
Knowledge
Socio Technical
System
Understanding
Socio-technical
System
Strategic
Socio-technical
System
Communication
Socio-technical
System
Reasoning
Socio-technical
System
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 23
• The name of the reference model is in honor of Spanish Juan Huarte de San Juan that, in the sixteenth century established, in a more or less explicit way, that in speaking of intelligence it was more judicious to describe it in terms of the mental faculties or "Ingenios". Our dual (cognitive-rational) model called “INGENIOS-RM” is the first generation of three planned which will incorporate the biomimetic and quantum approaches.
• The establishment of INGENIOS-RM has an important significance in several respects; on the one hand we can establish a framework for our research, design and development objectives in Scientific Intelligence while creating a global network of innovation around the model. On the other hand, defines a framework for how to study, evaluate and introduce improvements through innovation projects and processes into a human organization according to the level of cognitive and rational intelligence displayed in its processes, products, behaviors and organizational structures.
JMJLAB Ingenios Reference Model 1st. Gen. - II
Understanding System
PatternDetection and
Mng. STS
Risk & OpportunitiesStrategic STS
SituationalAwareness STS
Estimative & Predictive STS
StrategicInformation
Mng. STS
Reasoning System
ProblemSolving
STS
LearningSTS
Search & ReasoningSequences Mng.
STS
Recommendation& Judgement
STS
Communication System
Communications ProtocolMng. STS
Interaction STS
Translation & Interpretation
STS Affinity STS Broadcast STS
Knowledge System
KnowledgeAdquisitionPlanner STS
KnowledgeTask Analyzer
STS
Knowledge Storage STS
KnowledgeStructuresMng. STS
Strategic System
Decision Management
STS
OperationsManagement
STS
Action PlannerSTS
Course of Actions
Development& Training STS
ImmediateResponse STS
CreativitySTS
CriticalThinking
STS
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 24
“A resource - or ingenio is a utility which increases the rational and/or cognitive capacity of the system that integrates it, and the organization where it is deployed.
(Martín-Juárez 2010).
An Ingenio is a dual (cognitive-rational) system.
Ingenios research, design and configuration into complex systems is the main activity of JMJLAB.
To date we have designed and developed more than fifty “Ingenios”, integrated over one hundred and identified more than three hundred.
Concept of “Ingenio” in "Scientific Intelligence"
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 25“Ingenios”, the core components of ScI systems
Understanding STS
Reasoning STS
Communication STS Strategic STS
Reasoning sts
Knowledge STS
Services
Knowledge Packets
Managers
Funtional Blocks
Connectors
Coretechs
Devices
Support infrastructures
Ingenios Repository
Tizona Ingenios Component(Smart Information Repository)
Sistema Dual
II I l
II II I
l
I
I I
III
I II I I II II I I I
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 26
Designing dual systems involves a global reflection on all cognitive and rational resources that must come together in a consistent format.
Dual system for search and capture
Scientific Intelligence dual system
ISIS GLOBAL HUNTER 5.2Mass information search, gathering and monitoring system.
JMJLAB TARGET-SFMInformation gatheringmethodology
Dual system
I
I I l
I
II
I Il
I
I I
II
I
I
I I l
I
II
I Il
I
I I
II
II II I I II II I I I
Target
Operator:Cognitive system
User:Cognitive system
IT system:Rational machine
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 27
TYPES OF ”INGENIOS”
1. CORETECHS. Information processing technologies developed by WUNDERMAC or certificated developers enabling state-of-art processing capabilities. (e.g. smart repositories-Tizona, retrieval technologies - Global Hunter).
2. CONNECTORS: software components that integrate the processing capabilities with the functionality that they must endure. (e.g. connector between Retrieval and Translator).
3. FUNTIONAL BLOCKS. Software applications that support advanced functionality in the process of Scientific Intelligence operation defined by the socio-technical model (e.g. source weighting, hypotheses verifier).
4. MANAGERS. Software applications that interact with the system operators and govern the "Functional Blocks" on the basis of the methodological model. (e.g. collection manager, annual intelligence plan manager, event manager).
5. KNOWLEDGE PACKETS. System operation guidelines, with examples of use, knowledge "pills" and other e-learning products. (e.g. operation guide for the production of strategic risk assessment reports; training in planned event response; training in design and development of collection networks).
6. SERVICES. Technical and operational external support services that enable to extend the capabilities of the system or organization. (e.g. translation services).
7. DEVICES. Certified electronic devices to support efficient operation and management of the system. (Touch screens, integrated electronic whiteboards, etc.)..
8. INFRASTRUCTURES. Hardware, communications and other material support to an efficient, secure, fault tolerant, ergonomic environment, with predictive maintenance and resistant to harsh environmental conditions. (e.g. from server clustering, uninterruptible power supplies, cooling systems, process controllers, to carpet, chairs, tables, lighting, room arrangement, etc.).
Examples of dual “Ingenios”
Ingenios designed, developed or certified byJMJLAB y WUNDERMAC labs.
Intelligent data search and monitoring: GLOBAL HUNTER 5.2
Intelligent Database: TIZONA 5.1
Pattern Analysis: VISUAL LINK
Methodology for intelligent search and retrieval of information on key targets:TARGET-SFM
Evidence-basedinvestigation methodology: KPS-EELD Hypotheses manager:
ANALYST TOOLBOX 5.1
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 28
2. Analyst Training Service
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 29
Analyst Helper is the more advanced, comprehensive and sound set of coaching and training programs aimed at analysts and knowledge workers.
It increases the capacity to effectively understand and influence the real world in relation to the objectives established. It also allows learning techniques of continuous self-improvement in the reasoning processes of each individual.
ANALYST HELPER TRAINING
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 30
WORLD-CLASS ANALYST & HIGH EXECUTIVE TRAINING. Annual program:
1. Doctrinal training and concepts of strategy, investigation, analysis and Structured Thinking.
2. Training in techniques of situational analysis.
3. Training in techniques of estimative analysis.
4. Training in methodologies of investigation, analysis and Strategic Information production.
5. Training in formal reasoning methods.
6. Training in design and development of analysis sequences.
7. Training in design and development of formal reasoning sequences.
8. Training in design and development of Strategic Information products.
9. Training in implementation and management of investigation, analysis and Strategic Information production units.
Main training and coaching program - I
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 31
WORLD-CLASS ANALYST & HIGH EXECUTIVE TRAINING. Annual structure:
A. Nine training programs, three days each, 3 hours/day (81 hours), 120 theoretical exercises, 45 practical exercises, and 4 operational trainings per year of 3 days each, 3 hours / day (36 hours) with continuous support.
B. Teacher and coach: JMJ. He will individually and collectively meet with everyone to adapt the course content and schedules to specific objectives.
C. Materials and digital documentation with practical exercises.
D. Advanced software tools will be used throughout the course for investigation and analysis support.
E. Access to a knowledge base of documents on Structured Thinking, investigation, analysis and practical exercises.
F. Evaluación trimestral del grado y la forma de aplicación de los procedimientos y métodos de investigación y análisis.
G. Quarterly assessment of the implementation manner and degree of the investigation and analysis procedures and methods.
H. Quarterly assessment of structure and content quality of the investigation and analysis reports.
Main training and coaching program - II
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 32
Throughout the training, student´s cognitive skills in information processing are fostered by studying, monitoring and improving their particular characteristics.
Cognitive model of information processing
Model of information processing in the human brain
STSR STM-WM LTM
Capacity High or unlimited Limited to around 7“chunks”
Unlimited
Storage Mode Accurate and sensory Repetition and review ofmaterial
Organized and relational
Duration Short (1 / 2 second for visual information)
Relative (18 secondswithout review)
Permanent
Information Loss Temporal fading Review of material orshift due to new information
Recovery failure or interference from other information
Stimulus ResponseShort-termsensoryrepository (STSR)
Short-termmemory (STM)
Working memory(WM)
Long-term memory (LTM)
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 33General methodology for the implementation of Structured Thinking
Steps in solving a case.
Bases of the methodology of evidence-based Structured Thinking.
Structuring thecase.
Define assumptions, methods and target questions explicitly.Identify the cognitive and rational reference structure for sequences of thought.Identify all bodies of knowledge involved, alternative views and conclusions.
Qualification of thesources and evidence
Identify the origin and quality of all sources of evidence. Classify them for their reliability.Check the methods of evidence collection. To study the accuracy of the evidence.
Reasoning from the evidence to the argument.
Check the validity of both the rational process (to ensure the absence of logical fallacies) and the cognitive process (to detect ways of cognitive error).Set up rational alternative arguments.Define the propagation of uncertainty from the evidence through the argumentation of conclusions.
Evaluating arguments and make decisions.
Understand and comprehend the real world subject to the problem.Define criteria and cognitive-rational decisions.Predicting the consequences of such decisions.Weigh the implications and alternative judgments.Decide and support such decision with objective rationality and cognitive consistency.
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 34
AnalystInvestigatorExecutiveConsultant
Analyst Helper meta-procedures can significantly increase the cognitive and rational resources to understand the world and influence it.This unique set of knowledge tools is the result of many years of research and design by JMJ and his team.
Objectives of the Structured Thinking Meta-procedures
RASAT
FACTORYLINE
TARGET
EELD
ANIRULES
STERE
INSUME
RESEC
EMACTOR
THOGRA
REMAKER
COGREPAIR
Offers the analyst an environment for learning, designing and developing complex and sound strategies.
Allows designing robust and consistent processes for developing Strategic Information.
Environment that provides mechanisms for the systematic production of precision Strategic Information.
It allows to design information collection and evaluation strategies to elicit precise knowledge about targets.
It offers a set of procedures to build and manage physical, documentary or pattern evidence and evidence networks.
It allows to generate analysis plans and lines of investigation from existing evidence.
It is a method for designing Strategic Information products.
It allows to design templates and implement processes of reasoning and assessment from the evidence resulting from analysis.
From analysis results, it can be established the strategy of actors in front of challenge and conflict scenarios.
It provides methods to dissect documents and opinions in order to identify goals and intentions.
It establishes procedures for developing decisions and influence operations in the real world.
Set of procedures for checking logical fallacies and ways of cognitive error in the process of analysis.
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 35
Methods tested, created or improved and approved by JMJLAB.
Methods for domain-independent analysis and synthesis - I
1. ADRE. Analysis of adversary´s reasoning.2. COG. Analysis of the strategic center of gravity.3. MACTOR. Analysis of actors´strategies.4. PROFILING Biographical analysis.5. MORPHOL. Morphological analysis.6. LINKA. Analysis of obvious relationships.7. NORA. Analysis of non-obvious relationships.8. SNA. Analysis of social networks.9. OWNPROFILE. Analysis of representations.10. PROBREST. Reformulation of problems.11. PROSCON. Pros and cons analysis.12. CDT. Convergent-divergent thinking.13. DECTREE. Decision Tree Analysis.14. EVENTTREE. Event Tree analysis.15. WRANK. Weighted ranking analysis.16. ACH. Analysis of competing hypotheses.17. BELIEFNET. Analysis of belief networks.18. KEPNER-TREGOE. Problem analysis.19. SGP. Problem solving analysis.20. MULTIPOL. Multicriteria decision analysis.21. PROCCESS-MAP. Process maps.22. DELPHI. Analysis of expert panels.23. PROBEXPERT. Probability analysis based on experts.24. ISHIKAWA. Cause and effect analysis.25. SWOR. Threat panel analysis.
26. PESTEL . Analysis of external factors (environment).27. SLEIPNIR. Analysis of organized groups.28. FUTURE WHEELS. Analysis of consequences.29. BOBROW GAMES. Compensation game analysis.30. SCAME. Propaganda analysis.31. LINCHPIN. Error minimization analysis in complex
argumentations.32. TIME IMPACT. Trend analysis.33. TIMELIME. Correlation analysis of events in time.34. FORCEFIELD. Analysis of enablers and inhibitors of actions.35. KINEMATIC. Kinematic analysis.36. DMINING. Analysis of data patterns.37. STRUCT. Structural analysis.38. TEXTMINING. Text pattern analysis.39. ANALOGY. Situation analysis based on analogy.40. WAR GAMING. War games analysis.41. LIFELINE. Behavior analysis.42. CYBERMODELS. Cybernetic model-based analysis.43. ECIM. Critical incident analysis.44. CDM. Critical decision Analysis.45. BAYESIAN. Bayesian analysis.46. REGRES. Regression Analysis.47. PROBDIAGRAMS. Probability diagram analysis.48. IMAGERY. Image analysis.49. CONTENT. Content analysis.50. SOUND. Sound analysis.
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 36Methods for domain-independent analysis and synthesis - II
51. STATAN. Statistical analysis.52. ABC. ABC analysis.53. SCENE. Scene analysis.54. TRENDA. Trend analysis.55. THREATAN. Threat analysis.56. GTA. Goal-oriented task analysis.57. WAFOS. Stress analysis.58. HTA. Analysis of hierarchy of tasks.59. RETRO. Retrospective analysis.60. ATTLIST. Analysis of attribute lists.61. FCB GRID. Analysis of large volumes of information.62. THORNDIKE. Analysis of stories.63. SCENARIOS. Analysis of scenarios.64. JANUSIAN. Situation analysis based on paradoxes.65. HYPNOGOGIC. Analysis of mental images.66. DAVINCI. Analysis of graphic patterns.67. FANTASYQ. Analysis based on metaphors.68. PSYGE. Psychogeographical Analysis.69. INCUBATION. Analysis of challenges / goals.70. RANDOM STIMULATION. Situation
analysis based on stimulation of random terms.71. SERVO. Analysis of initiatives.72. VUA. Vulnerability analysis.73. INFFLOW. Analysis of information flows.74. EVENTFLOW. Analysis of event flows.75. FAULT-TREE. Error tree analysis.76. PARETO. Pareto analysis.77. CROSSIMPACT. Cross-impact analysis.
78. NEUBEH. Behavior analysis based on neural networks.79. GENEBEH. Behavior analysis based on genetic algorithms.80. RWARNINGS. Risk warning analysis.81. OWARNINGS. Opportunity warning analysis.82. RISKA. Risk analysis.83. OPTA. Opportunity analysis.84. CSFA. Analysis of critical success factors.85. MILLCA. Causality analysis.86. INDISUA. Deterrence situation analysis.87. OPTIMAT. Optimal threat analysis.88. NASHEQ. Analysis of Nash equilibria.89. OCCAM. Status Analysis.90. KAHN. Situation analysis based on the escalation ladder.91. BRANK. Analysis of credibility rankings.92. ALT-FUTURES. Analysis of alternative futures.93. MIC-MAC. Analysis of key variables of a system.94. TABLETOP. Task Analysis.95. FORMA. Form Analysis.96. INTERA. Analysis of interviews.97. FORCEAN. Analysis of conflicting forces.98. POLEMO. Polemological analysis.99. TCA. Technology analysis.100.BMA. Business models analysis.101. CSA. Cultural systems analysis.
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 37
Products of evidence-based structured analysis (hundreds)
Products (analytical evidence) of the certified A/S techniques
H1: Steve WillGive Talk
E: Steve isVisitor
P(E) = 1.
P(H1|E) = .95
H: Visit will Be success
H2: Talk willBe good
H3: Steve WillMeet Faculty
H4: Faculty Meetings Will go well
H5: Steve WillMeet Graduate
Students
H6: GS Meetings Will go well
P(H2|H1) = 2/3
P(H|H2) = 3/4
P(H3|E, H2) = .95
P(H3|H2) = .5
P(H|H4) = .85P(H|H6) = .65
P(H5|E) = .60
P(H6|H5) = .8P(H3|H2) = ..8
Bayesian Belief Network
MissionTypeBlueAttack 100
BlueRescue 0
RedAttack 0
WithDraw 0
Distance Al 0
FiringRange 0
Nearby 100
Distant 0
AngleOff Facing 100
Glancing 0
Perpendicular 0
Away 0
Attacking targetTrue 0
False 100
FireSupport None 0
Couple 100
Few 0
Many 0
MoveSupportNone 0
Couple 100
Few 0
Many 0
FrendlyDensity Isolated 0
Moderate 100
High 0
Cover None 0
Moderate 100
High 0
TargetDensity Isolated 0
Moderate 100
High 0
AtackPosition Rear 0
Flank 0
Front 100
Defend True 70.0
False 30.0
0 5 10 15 20 25
5
10
15
20
25
30
Time T1Time T2Time T3Time T4
Alias P.A.N.M.
P.H. Pitharny
Louis HandsomeJp. Donarthy
Alias “Jones”
People
Hanjai Jonaby
Muhamar Hanjadar
B.B. Blubingier
Khar Jharti
Leonard P. WilsonGardai Hunini
33-348976546667983211
45-6798321100-456143260 VISA 34232245678
VISA 34232245678
22-34897654
MC 456143260MC 456143260 MC 456143260
Communications
01-555-343-6789
01-555-343-5456
01-888-343-6789
06-555-378-6789
01-555-343-6789
01-775-343-678901-555-366-6789
01-555-343-6789
01-777-478-7676
01-555-343-6789
01-555-343-678901-555-343-6789
1. Competitor’s objectives.2. Competitor’s emotional state.3. Competitor’s behavioural patterns and
preferences.4. Competitor’s plans.5. Anticipating a competitor’s activities.6. A competitor’s manipulation and traps.7. Determination of an organization’s strategic
centre of gravity.8. Social and psychological profiling of a person or
group.9. Discovery of hidden relationships between
people or organizations.10. Determination of the type of relationship of a
person or organization.11. A person’s or organization’s past and present
social network and future intentions.12. Profiles and perceptions of people and/or
organizations on others.13. Alternate ways of approaching problems and
solutions.14. Alternative decisions according to the situation
and objectives.15. Determination of future events according to the
events that happened up to the present.16. Establishment of credibility rankings in reports,
people and organizations.17. Determination of the cost benefit of certain
objectives and activities.
18. Determination of the processes that can lead to an event or situation.
19. Weighting of expert opinions on a topic.20. Determination of the recompense required to
carry out an activity.21. Establishment of escalation tendencies in a
situation or conflict.22. Determination of the players’ forces at the scene
of a possible operation.23. Determination of the players’ strategy at the
scene of a possible operation.24. Disposition of an target’s forces according to
their geographic situation.25. Determination of the significance of tendencies
and numerical patterns in people, objects and organizations.
26. Determination of the real structure of an organization.
27. Detection of explanatory patterns in texts.28. Recognition and foresight of situations by
analogies with other situations or cases.29. Mathematical models of the behaviour of the
explanatory variables of a phenomenon in the real world.
30. Dynamic simulation of situations.31. Association matrixes.32. Alternative hypotheses tables that compete
between themselves according to the evidence captured at time t.
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 38Example of an operative training
1. Opportunity Warning: Own intention and capacity to position ourselves advantageously and specific vulnerabilities of the counterparties.
2. Scenario: Crisis or event on a potential merger.3. Summary: The Team of Intelligence must respond to an urgent request from direction to analyze the 72 hours next to a crisis
resulting from a potential merger.
3. Pre-conditions of the process:a. Information registered in the capture system on the involved entities.b. Prior knowledge and intelligence on the activities involved.
4. Post-conditions of the process (deliverables):a. Hourly Information Notes.b. Daily Evidence-based Intelligence Reportc. Final report after 72 hours.
5. Basic flow:a. Managers deliver a predefined signed MEMO to the Head of Analysis, identifying intelligence needs, priorities and response time.b. The Head of Analysis introduces the requests into the predefined template and disseminates the MEMO to the people assigned by
the system and:i. Identifies the targets of interest.ii. Checks out the specific information needs.iii. Prioritizes needs.iv. Establishes safety, planning, dissemination and resource allocation requirements.v. Endorses the requirements.
c. The Head of Analysis creates the work plan according to requirements.d. xxxx. The Head of Analysis approves the final report's release.
6. Alternative flow: PCR012 7. Revision: 3.2 9-03.06 8. Associated procedures 9. Associated training
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 39Skills to get through ANALYST TRAINING
Sternberg: According to his research, the meaning of intelligence involves three main sets of skills:
• Ability to solve problems.
• Verbal ability.
• Social competence.
ANALYST TRAINING in all formats allows individuals, groups, professionals or knowledge workers in any organization to improve the three aspects described by Sternberg.
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 40Skills to obtain in dealing with problems
1. Reason logically and well.2. Identify connections among ideas.3. See all aspects of a problem.4. Keep an open mind.5. Respond to others' ideas.6. Size up situations well.7. Get the core of the problems.8. Interpret information accurately.9. Make good decisions.10. Go to original sources for basic information.11. Pose problems clearly. 12. Be a good source of ideas.13. Perceive implied assumptions and conclusions .14. Listen to all ideas of an argument.15. Address problems with all possible resources.
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 41Skills to obtain in communication
1. Speak clearly, fluently and articulately.
1. Converse well
2. Be knowledgeable about a particular subject.
3. Read correctly.
4. Take time to read.
5. Social Competence.
6. Write without difficulty.
7. Display an ample vocabulary.
8. Accept social norms.
9. Follow new thoughts.
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 42Skills to obtain in social competence
1. Accept diversity.
2. Admit mistakes.
3. Display interest in the world at large.
4. Have a social conscience.
5. Think before speaking and doing.
6. Do not make hasty judgments.
7. Make fair judgments.
8. Be open and upright with oneself and with others.
9. Display interest in the immediate environment.
10. Be sensitive to other people's needs and desires.
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 43
3. Analyst Mentor Service
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 44ANALYST MENTOR
Continuous advisory service covering any situation that may occur in an organization, both private (companies) or public (government).
The work unit is called CASE.
In each CASE (customer request for advice), the advisory team will provide a recommendation about what to do and how to proceed by means of an advisory report released electronically or through a meeting. Also there will be a continuous monitoring to close the CASE with a joint report by the client and the adviser.
Exclusive treatment:
• The international expert, designer and advisor on Scientific Intelligence, JMJ, together with his team, is directly involved in all cases, guiding, focusing and monitoring.
• The customer deals directly with JMJ and his team of assistants.
• Personalized support to 12x7x365.
Confidentiality and restriction of competition:
• The content of all our advising cases, the names of our customers and the type of problem solved is secret.
• In case of permanent advisory contracts, we do not work, unless authorized, with countries or companies directly competing or antagonistic to our customers.
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 45
Types of Cases to be discussed at ANALYST MENTOR:
1. Monitoring of environments of interest and key targets.2. Investigation and analysis of situations.3. Design and development of strategies.4. Support to strategic decision making.5. Design and development of operational actions.6. Detection and management of risks and opportunities.7. Dealing with problems.8. Conflict management.9. Influence operations through information, counter-information,
awareness and propaganda.10. Design and development of corporate operations.11. Design and development of rapid response operations.12. Corporate strategic plans.
ANALYST MENTOR Objectives
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 46Evidence-based assessment.
The service uses an evidence-based consultative approach to give a precise support to the catalog of situations defined in the service.
Traditional consulting:
• Lack of a sound methodological environment.
• Based on some expert opinions.
• Too much information, little evidence.
• Lack of a solid domain-independent analytical framework.
• Mismanagement of resources for investigation and analysis.
• Mismanagement of the experts of the organization.
• Low quality information products.
• Plan interventions without guarantees and simplistic in many cases.
Evidence-based consulting:
• Comprehensive and consistent methodology.
• Simple and integrated operation model to capture, evaluate, analyze and report all the information needed to support the intervention plan.
• Strong and broad analytical framework.
• Aimed at obtaining evidence, efficient decision making and timely development of actions to influence and impact.
• Accurate and structured information products.
• Intervention plan precise in content, shape, means and time.
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 47Evidence-based investigation and analysis methodology
ANALYST MENTOR advisory methodology (Evidence-Lab V-II): All processes are focused on planning, search, identification, management, analysis of evidence and making judgments through formal reasoning processes.
Sourceidentification
Definiciónde losCaso
Questions
Environmentidentification
Reportarchiving
Gestióndel caso
Presentation(REPORTS)
Reportpreparation
Drawing conclusions
Caseopening
Creaciónde los casos
Resources
Definingthe roles of
investigators
EvidenceDiscovery
and detection
Informationacquisition
Analysisand review
Casedevelopment
Project management
Development andmanagement of evidence-based
investigation cases
Casedefinition
Casecreation
Casemanagement
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 48
Techniques for planning and development of investigation and analysis projects:
1. Planning:
• Defining the investigation problem.
• Identification of investigation requirements.
• Definition and planning of investigation projects.
2. Development:
• Preparation of investigation cases.
• Information collection.
• Development of the investigations.
• Investigation dissemination.
Planning and development of investigation and analysis projects
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 49
Definir el problema de investigación:
• Who need to know what is happening?
• What do they need to know and argue with precision?
• Where do they need to know?
• When do they need to know in order to chronologically plan the project properly?
• Why do they need to know? and what actions are possible to carry out?
• How do they need to know, that is, the format? A dossier, a design, forensics, executive summary, visual diagram, report face to face.
• What levels and procedures of confidentiality are going to be applied?
Determine the investigation requirements:
• What is happening? What is the investigation problem?
• Who or what are the entities and elements (factors, objects, etc.) to investigate?
• Where are we going to develop the investigation? and where are we going to get the information from?
• When and how does the phenomenon begin, develop and manifest?
• Why is this phenomenon occurring? That is, what are factors, internal or external to the customer, that cause the phenomenon?
Planning techniques for projects of analysis and investigation - I
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 50
Define the investigation projects.
• Role and importance of the facts.
• Role and importance of the analysis and interpretation.
• Intelligence production approach to choose.
• Information-gathering tasks involved.
• Analytical tasks involved.
• Information-gathering methods to use.
• Analytical methods to use.
• Data collection instruments to use.
• Analysis tools to use.
• Project management tools to use.
• Project timelines.
Planning techniques for projects of analysis and investigation - II
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 51
Case definition:• Identification and codification of investigation issues.• Identification and codification of information sources • Identification of the investigation environment.
Case creation:• Register the case.• Assign resourses.• Definition and identification of investigation roles.
Case development:• Establishment of criteria for case management.• Information acquisition.• Evidence discovery.• Evidence analysis and review of the investigation process.
Case management:• Review of results.• Investigation product preparation (reports).• Case archiving.• Case pesentation and delivery.
Investigation case management and development
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 52
The Advisory Service has the following structure:
A. Continuous online advice from 9.30 to 22.00 hours, 365 days a year.
B. Advisory team led by JMJ.
C. Online registration of requests for advice (Cases).
D. A biweekly meeting with the client for planning and case management.
E. Limit: 25 cases per year.
Basic service structure
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de texto del patrón• Segundo nivel
• Tercer nivel– Cuarto nivel
» Quinto nivel
Haga clic para modificar el estilo de título del patrón 53
This presentation is the property of JMJLab and may only be presented to authorized audiences. This presentation may contain confidential information which is subject to property rights or other laws and may not be copied, distributed or publicly presented without prior express permission given in writing by JMJLab Complex Systems.
© 2008-2011 JMJLab Complex Systems. All rights reserved.
Copyright
2008-2011 JMJLab - All rights reserved