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6 January 2017
ANALYST & INVESTOR DAY
MANAGEMENT
MR. ADNAN BALi
MR. ERTUĞRULBOZGEDiK
MR. ERGÜNYORULMAZ
MR. MAHMUTMAGEMiZOĞLU
MR. YALÇIN SEZEN
MR. MURAT BiLGiÇ
MR. HAKAN ARAN
MS. SENAR AKKUŞ
MR. N. BURAKSEYREK
MR. LEVENT KORBA
MR. YILMAZ ERTÜRK
Director and Chief Executive Officer
31 years at İşbank
Deputy Chief Executive31 years at İşbankCorporate Loans, SME Loans, Commercial Loans and Consumer Loans Underwriting, Credits Portfolio Management, Financial Analysis
Deputy Chief Executive34 years at İşbankCommercial Banking,Retail Banking and General Deliberation Legal Counsellorship, Corporate, Commercial and Retail Loans Monitoring and Recovery Management
Senior Deputy Chief Executive34 years at İşbankFinancial Management, Investor Relations, Managerial Reporting and Internal Accounting, Strategy and Corporate Performance ManagementSubsidiaries
Deputy Chief Executive30 years at İşbankConsumer Loans, Card Payment Systems, Digital Banking, Retail Banking Marketing, Sales and Product Management, Retail Loan and Card Operations, Private Banking Marketing and Sales Management
Deputy Chief Executive26 years at İşbankCorporate, Commercial and SME Banking Marketing, Sales and Product Management, Free Zone Branches, Branches Abroad and Foreign Representatives
Deputy Chief Executive27 years at İşbankDigital Banking Operations, Information Technologies, Data Management
Deputy Chief Executive26 years at İşbankTreasury, Capital Markets, Corporate Communications
Deputy Chief Executive26 years at İşbankHR, Talent Management, Enterprise Architecture 1
Deputy Chief Executive31 years at İşbankBanking Operations and Payment Operations, Support Services and Purchasing, Foreign Trade and Commercial Loan Operations, Internal Operations, Construction and Real Estate Management, Branch Network Development
Deputy Chief Executive30 years at İşbankEconomic Research, International Financial Institutions
2016 – STRONG PERFORMANCE IN PROFITABILITY
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2016 Q3 (2)
2016 Q3
2016 Q3 (2)
16.5%
19,014
13.7%
21,593
13.1%
24,359
2.3%1.8%
1.7%1.3%
1.7%
10.4%
26,718
12.8%
29,256
19.0%
22,719
15.6%
23,579
15.4%
35,021
14.8%
29,311
12.1%
32,035
RoAE RoATE(1)
(1) Tangible Equity (TE) is calculated by the deduction of M-t-M valuation differences regarding AFS portfolio, listed participations and real estate portfolio from shareholders’ equity.(2) Calculations are based on trailing four quarters’ data.(3) Risk Weighted Assets (RWAs) include risk weighted amounts calculated for credit risk, market risk and operational risk.
Tangible Equity(1) Shareholders’ Equity
RoAE & RoATE (1) RoRWA(3)
TANGIBLE EQUITY & SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY (TL mn)
2
2016 – STRONG PERFORMANCE IN MAJOR PROFIT DRIVERS
6,522
8,846
20.7%
1,7265,867
18.5%
7,121
10,405
8.7%
2,036
7,806
10,705
6.4%
2,046
2016 9M
(1) Excluding account keeping fees for only retail accounts(2) Calculations are based on trailing four quarters’ data.(3) Adjusted for non-recurring and other items
2016 9M
OPEX OPEX
2016 9M2016 9M
2016 9M
2016 9M2015 9M
2015 9M
Total Op. Income
Total Op. Income
2015 9M2015 9M
2015 9M
2015 9M
NII
ReportedReported
NFCNII (Incl. Swap Cost)
Adjusted(3) Adjusted(3)
NFC (Acc. Keep. Fees Excl.)(1)
19.7%
21.0%
18.5%23.5%21.4%
20.4%
NET INTEREST INCOME NET FEES & COMMISSIONS
TOTAL OPERATING INCOME POSITIVE JAWS (2016 9M)(2)
8,638
3
1,620
ON TRACK TOWARDS 2016 TARGETS
(1) Year-to-date(2) (Specific Loan Loss Provisions + General Loan Loss Provisions ) / Average Performing Loans(3) Based on MIS data(4) Adjusted for non-recurring and other items(5) Calculations are based on trailing four quarters’ data.
2015
Loan Growth 10%-12%
13%-14%
+60 bps
115 -125 bps
>14%
3.7%– 3.9%
>15%
Decrease
1.2% - 1.3%
6.5%(1)
8.0%(1)
2.6%
132 bps
15.8%
4.18%
18.5%
43.7%
1.5%
14.0%
15.2%
2.0%
114 bps
15.6%
3.80%
19.2%
47.0%
1.2%
Deposit Growth
NPL Ratio
Capital Adequacy Ratio
Net Fees & Commissions Growth
Return on Average Assets(5)
Cost to Income Ratio(4) (5)
Net Interest Margin(3)
Gross Cost of Risk(2)
2016 9M 2016 Expectations
4
BANKING SECTOR MAIN CHALLENGES
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Headwinds
Mild economic growthFlat – increasing interest rate environment Pressure on EM currenciesThreats to credit rating
Mobility
Disintermediation
Digital players
Technology enabled customers Switching to digital channels Demanding better service at lower costs Increased importance of customer-centric business approach
Maintaining & Improving Customer Relationship
Technology & New Competitors
5
MACROECONOMIC & GEOPOLITICAL HEADWINDS
FINANCIAL INDICATORS 2016 (change compared to the end of 2015(1))2016: A quite exceptional year for the global economy, emerging economies hit harder…
Brexit & strengthened anti-establishment movements in Europe
Rising geopolitical risks
US presidential election - Trump’s victory
Shifts in expectations for the Fed’s policy normalization process
OPEC talks & volatility in oil prices
Uncertainties on economic policies by the major economies
Unexpected domestic developments
2119
3-12
USD / Local Currency (%)
Turkey
South Africa
Mexico
Brazil
EM(2)
Russia-16
-18
28-100
-162
5-Year Treasury Bond Yields (bps, local currency)
Mexico
South AfricaTurkey
RussiaBrazil-526
147
-118-130
-14
5-Year CDS (bps)
Turkey
South AfricaMexico
RussiaBrazil-215
1
Source: Datastream(1) As of 30 December, 2016.(2) MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index
6
A slight recovery in Turkish economy in 2017 along with the modest global economic growth…
Mild economic growth despite challenging environment
Domestic demand-driven growth profile
Pick-up in public spending without any distorting effect on fiscal indicators
Easing of macroprudential measures
A stable current account outlook
A comprehensive structural reform agenda
Continued capital inflows
Source: Datastream, Turkstat, BRSA (F) Forecast Ratios based on the new GDP series
2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F
6.1%
3.7% 3.9% 4.2% 4.4% 4.3%
2.5% 3.3% 4.0% 4.5%
Real GDP Growth
CAD/GDP
SUSTAINABLE GDP GROWTH & CAD
MACRO EXPECTATIONS
2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F
1.0%
27.5% 27.7% 27.4% 27.1% 26.7%
1.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% Budget Deficit / GDP
Public debtstock / GDP
PRUDENT FISCAL STANCE
2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
8.8% 8.5% 8.5%7.5% 7.0%
CPI INFLATION ABOVE 5% TARGET
2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
17% 17%12% 12% 13%
20%17%
12% 13% 13%Deposit
Loan
ANNUAL DEPOSIT & LOAN GROWTH
7
MACROECONOMIC & GEOPOLITICAL HEADWINDS
MAINTAINING & IMPROVING CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP
Multi-channel Access
Individual Customer Value
Trust
Operational Excellence
Customer
8
TECHNOLOGY AND NEW COMPETITORS
Technology Competitors
Improving Customer Services
DIGITALISATIONPricingEfficiency
Attack by...
9
STRATEGIC APPROACH OF ISBANK
SUSTAINABLE & PROFITABLE GROWTH
PROFITABILITY
WELL-BALANCED,SELECTIVE AND
PRIORITISED GROWTH
EFFECTIVERISK
MANAGEMENT
PROACTIVEMANAGEMENT
OF FUNDING
ASSET QUALITY
10
WELL-BALANCED, SELECTIVE AND PRIORITISED GROWTH
Improved Customer
Experience
More Digital
Customers
Focus on Profitable
Segments with a Risk-Return
Approach Fee Business
AND
ProfitableCustomer
Base
Core Banking Revenue
ROE
INCR
EASE
IN
11
DISRUPTIVE ENVIRONMENT IN DIGITAL ERA
DIGITAL IS DISINTERMEDIATION
ENTRY BARRIERS BIG DATA & CUSTOMER FOOTPRINT CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE
DISAPPEARING CONVENTIONAL ROLES SIMPLIFICATION IN BUSINESS MODELS
12
DIGITALISATION
CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE
ORGANISATION TECHNOLOGY
INNOVATION ECOSYSTEM
Innovation CX DigitalTransformation
Collaboration
Big Data Multi-channelAccess
OperationsCenter Data Center
InnovationCulture
Relation withFintechs
InnovativeDigital Services 13
DIGITALISATION – INNOVATION (IDEA GENERATION CONTEST)
14
DIGITALISATION – INNOVATION (KOLEKTIF HOUSE)
15
DIGITALISATION – INNOVATION (INSTANT SERVICE PLATFORM)
16
DIGITALISATION – UNIONPAY ECOSYSTEM
17
DIGITALISATION – VIRTUAL POS ECOSYSTEM
18
DIGITALISATION – PIRI ECOSYSTEM
19
DIGITALISATION – TECHNOLOGY (DATA CENTER)
20
DIGITALISATION – TECHNOLOGY (OPERATIONS CENTER)
21
DIGITALISATION
74.8%
37.6%
30.3% 32.0% 31.1%28.8%
28.0%25.2%
2.2% 4.3% 9.4%19.0% 24.3%
31.7%36.1% 35.7%
29.1%
26.3%
23.0%
77.6% 80.5% 80.6% 82.3% 83.7%
DIGITAL BANKING MARKET SHARES(1)
2011 2012 2013
Term Deposits AutomaticPayments
GPLs
2014 2015 2016/11
Total Non-Branch Internet BankingMobile Banking ATM
51.9% 47.3%
16.2%
# Transactions
23.2%
10.7%
10.0%
9.5%
37.4%
21.2%
17.7%
17.3 %
Investment
Credit Cards
Money Transfer
Payments
Mobile Banking Internet
(1) Source: TBA, as of 2016 Q3(2) Unit sales, as of 2016/11
3,6332,766
Mobile Banking Internet Banking
2011 2016
18x1.7x
1,620
207
EVOLUTION OF SHARE OF TRANSACTIONS PER CHANNEL DIGITAL BANKING – NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS (‘000)
SHARE OF DIGITAL CHANNELS IN RETAIL SALES(2)
22
ASSET COMPOSITION
2015 2016 Q3 2017
Cash & Banks
Securities
Loans
Participations& Other Assets
7.5%
64.2%
12.0%
292,882
16.2%
64.4%
11.6%
16.7%
65%
12%
16%
7.3% 7%
6.2%275,718
COMPOSITION OF TOTAL ASSETS (TL mn)
23
LOAN GROWTH
Credit Cards
2015 2016 Q3
2015 2016 Q3
GPLs (inc. overdraft acc.)
Auto Loans
Co r p . & Co m m .
Housing Loans
SME*
9.2%
46,797
66,340
9.2%
17.6% 16.9%
13.9%
35.0%
13.8%
32.6%
0.7%
23.6%
0.5%
26.9%
3.0%
7.0%
20.3%
48,196
70,998
Retail
Non
-Retail
SME
Project Finance
Other Corporate
22,3034.0%
47.2%
3.8%
49.8% 49.0%
46.2%
5.1% 23,432
Loan Growth Expectations
12% -13%
13%-14%13%-14%13%-14%
7%-8%
Total Loans
TL LoansRetail LoansNon-Retail Loans
FX Loans (USD)
2017
COMPOSITION OF TL LOANS (TL mn) COMPOSITION OF FX LOANS (USD mn)
24
(*) SME definition includes companies with number of employees <250 and turnover or total assets <= TL 40 mn.
LOWEST NPL RATIO(1) AMONG PEERS MAINTAINED
Sector
Peer 1
Peer 2(1)
Peer 3(1)
İşbank
İşbank Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3Share in Loans
ConsumerLoans
132126
103 96
(1) Adjusted for NPL sales in 2016 9M (2) SME definition includes companies with # of employees <250 and turnover or total assets <=TL 40 mn.(3) Net COR = (Specific Loan Loss Provisions + General Loan Loss Provisions - Specific Provision Reversals) / Average Performing Loans
CreditCards
SME Loans(2)
Corp. & Comm.Loans
Gross CoR Gross CoR
Collections Collections
General General
Specific Specific
Net CoR Net CoR
TotalLoans
2.6%
11788
113
15
-29 -30
1513
13
83
3.6%
19.7%
7.6%
6.7%
4.6%
22.0%
3.3%
4.8%
3.4%
2.7%
2.6%6.0% 3.6%
51.6%
1.6%
1.9%
3.3%
4.1%
4.8%
4.0%
2016 9M 2017
NPL RATIOS BY LOAN CATEGORIES (2016 Q3) SHARE OF GROUP II IN TOTAL LOANS (2016 Q3)
COST OF RISK(3) (BPS)
25
Less than 3.0% NPL Ratio
2017
EQUITY PARTICIPATIONS STRATEGY
FinancialListed
GlassNon-Listed
Other
19.9%
80.1%
Participation
VALUE CREATION
44.4% 13.1%
13.9% 25.3%
11.5% 16.6%
Şişecam
Anadolu Hayat
TSKB
Share in Total BV(2016 Q3)
47.8%
7.8%
44.4%
Divestiture of non-core/non-strategic companies
Enhancing the alignment of financial sector companies
Ensuring a stable and satisfactory dividend revenue
Dividend income from participations2016: TL 682 mn, 2017: ~ TL 690 mn
(*) Annual return on investment calculated for the last 5 years, including cash dividend payments and M-t-M changes.
12.2%
8.4% 8.7%
10.6%
9.7%
11.6%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q3
PARTICIPATION MIX (2016 Q3) DIVIDEND INCOME / PARTICIPATIONS AT COST
26
Annual RoI*
Annual Return on Investment for listed participations: 15.6% for the last five years
PROACTIVE FUNDING MANAGEMENT
Deposits
Participations & Other Assets
Loans
Equity &Other
Financial Assets
Funding MT/LT(1)
Funding ST(1)82.8
21.5
188.6
37.6%
13.2%7.5% 7.5%
34.2%
2017 2018 2019 2020 >=2021
16.1%
166.1
44.327.954.6
Eurobond Subordinated Debt Other Funds Borrowed Securitization Syndication
15.9%
9.4%
9.6%
8.1%
27.0%
100.0%
30.0%
2,441
Decrease
Expectations
Share
2017
1,435
1,462
14%-15%
1,237
4,138
>15%
15,306
4,593
6%-8%
Syndication
Loans / Deposits
Subordinated Debt
Securitization
Repo&Money Market
Other Funds Borrowed
Total
Eurobond
27
(1) Based on remaining maturities(2) Excluding funds from domestic banks and repo / money market.
COMPOSITION OF ASSETS & LIABILITIES (2016 Q3, TL bn)
MATURITY PROFILE OF NON-DEPOSIT FX FUNDING(2) (2016 YE)
COMPOSITION OF NON-DEPOSIT FX FUNDING (2016 Q3)
Amount (USD mn)
Total Deposits Growth
TL Deposits Growth
FX Deposits (USD) Growth
STRONG CAPITAL BASE
2015
Net Income
Dividend Distribution
2016 9M
Growth in RWAs(1)
Other (2)
BASEL III BUFFERS
2017 20182016% 2019
Capital Conservation Buffer
max
.
2.5
2.5
1.875
1.875
0.625 1.25
1.25
CAR (Bank-only) 13.0011.758.64 10.50
SIFI Buffer (4) - Group 3 21.50.5 1
Min. Legal Requirement for CAR 888 8
15.0013.259.14 11.50CAR (Consolidated)
0.012(3)Counter Cyclical Buffer
15.65%
15.80%
1.33%
-0.33%
-0.58%
-0.27%
CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO
28
CAR >14%
2017
(1) TL depreciation impact is -22 bps.(2) ”Other” item includes the impacts of change in M-t-M differences (+19 bps), decrease in Tier II capital due to amortization (-26 bps), exclusion of free provisions from regulatory capital calculation (-32 bps), and other effects (+12 bps).(3) As of September 2016(4) Taken into consideration only on a consolidated basis
REVENUE GROWTH
2015 9M
2015 9M
2015 9M
2015 9M
2016 9M
2016 9M
2016 9M
2016 9M
6,522
1,726
8,846
555
19.7%
18.5%
21.0%
23.0%
7,806
2,046
10,705
682
NET FEES & COMMISSIONS
DIVIDEND INCOME
TOTAL OPERATING INCOME
29
NET INTEREST INCOME
>15% increase in NFC
1% increase in dividend income
17% increase in total operating income
18% increase in NII
Flat NIM: 4.0%-4.2%
2017
IMPROVING EFFICIENCY
2015 9M 2016 9M 2017
52.4%
-3.9 ppt
46.2%43.7% <44%
47.6% 20.7
17.1 17.1 17.3 17.6
18.0
18.4
19.5
18.4
17.9
18.3
18.1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q3
İşbank Peer Average
EMPLOYEES PER BRANCH
30
COST TO INCOME(1)
Reported Adjusted(2)
Positive JawsFlat # of branches OPEX growth: CPI + 1-2%
2017
(1) Based on trailing four quarters’ data(2) Adjusted for non-recurring and other items
IMPROVING PROFITABILITY RATIOS
2015 20152016 Q3(2) 2016 Q3(2)2017 2017
1.2% 12.1%
1.5% 15.4%1.6% - 1.7% 16% - 17%
RoATE(1)RoAA
31(1) Tangible Equity (TE) is calculated by the deduction of M-t-M valuation differences regarding AFS portfolio, listed participations and real estate portfolio from shareholders’ equity.(2) Calculations are based on trailing four quarters’ data.
2017 EXPECTATIONS - ISBANK
2015
Loan Growth 12% -13%
14% - 15%
<3.0%
125 -130 bps
>14%
4.0% – 4.2%
3.7% – 3.9%
>15%
CPI + 1-2%
1.6% - 1.7%
16% - 17%
6.5%(1)
8.0%(1)
2.6%
132 bps
15.8%
4.18%
3.81%
18.5%
3.4%
1.5%(4)
15.4%(4)
14.0%
15.2%
2.0%
114 bps
15.6%
3.80%
3.39%
19.2%
11.1%
1.2%
12.1%
Deposit Growth
NPL Ratio
Capital Adequacy Ratio
Net Fees & Commissions Growth
Return on Average Assets
Return on Average Tangible Equity
OPEX Growth
Net Interest Margin(3)
Net Interest Margin (Swap adjusted)(3)
Gross Cost of Risk(2)
2016 9M 2017 Expectations*
(*) Growth rate expectations are given compared to 2016YE.(1) Year-to-date(2) (Specific Loan Loss Provisions + General Loan Loss Provisions ) / Average Performing Loans(3) Based on MIS data(4) Calculations are based on trailing four quarters’ data.
32
KEY TAKEAWAYS
33
Improving profitability
Robust fee income generation, supporting bottom-line with minimum capital consumption
Further improving efficiency
Asset quality sustained and will continue to be the main pillar of the strategy – lowest NPL among peers
Strong capital base maintained
Focus on digitalisation and transformation – Number of mobile customers exceeded 3.6 million.