analytical developments: economic modelling for reshaping care for older people (rscop) ellen lynch...
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Analytical developments: Analytical developments: Economic modelling for Economic modelling for reshaping care for older reshaping care for older
peoplepeople(RSCOP)(RSCOP)
Ellen Lynch
Health Analytical Services
Scottish Government
Overview
• Brief background of RSCOP
• How the social care data is being used
• Future plans
Background of RSCOP
• Proportion of older people in the population increasing over the next couple of decades
• Need to be able to plan how care can be delivered
• Current pattern of care not sustainable
• Health ASD asked to model different scenarios………
How the social care data is being used
• Provides a baseline of current care provision in the population – Home care clients based on old individual
data (age, gender and number of hours)– Care home residents (age, gender)– Detailed individual level data important for
economic model • age bands would have masked important
differences in levels of care for people, following graphs demonstrate……….
Proportion of Population in Care Homes
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
Age
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f P
op
ula
tio
n
Male
Female
Proportion of Population with Home Care
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
Age
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f P
op
ula
tio
n
Male
Female
Future plans
• 2010 home care data will be heavily used• Individual level data for every local authority• Examine IoRN scores compared to hours of home care
in trying to get a better understanding of levels of need• Examine the effect of telecare on home care hours• Telecare baseline number for the first time – used to
model various scenarios• Re-ablement data from Edinburgh• Longitudinal analysis – how long does re-ablement /
telecare delay the need for other services• Incorporating linked health & social care• Economic model will keep evolving over time
Further information & contacts
• http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Health/care/reshaping
• Paudric Osborne (Economist)
• Sean Eales (Policy)
Analytical developments: Analytical developments: data linking data linking
for statistics and researchfor statistics and research
Ellen LynchHealth Analytical Services
Scottish [email protected]
OverviewOverview
• Background – why do we want to link data?
• How the Home Care and SDS (Direct Payments) data fits in?
• Summary of progress over the last 5 months
• Next steps
Why do we want to link data for Why do we want to link data for statistics and research?statistics and research?
• Need to do much more in developing our understanding of the relationships between social care, housing and health
• For example:– Evidence for Reshaping Care for Older People,
Dementia Strategy………– Evidence of care pathways– Evidence of if it’s the same people with high health
and social care costs– Evidence of combinations of care & support packages
Other reasons for doing data Other reasons for doing data linkage for statistics and researchlinkage for statistics and research
• Improved data quality and integrity
• Making better use of available data
• Communication benefits
• Research benefits including cost
How the Home Care and SDS (Direct How the Home Care and SDS (Direct Payments) data fits inPayments) data fits in
• Individual level data from 32 local authorities - important stepping stone
• SG able to link between Home Care and Direct Payments for the first time
• Disclosure control methodology developed (used to maintain confidentiality in statistical analysis)
• Individual Home Care and Direct Payments data could be linked to other (health/housing) sources using personal identifiers with local authority approval………
Progress over the last 5 monthsProgress over the last 5 months
• Making sure any data linkage complies with legislation
• Privacy and ethical considerations
• Learning from international best practice
• Joining up with ISD Scotland and the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) and other Scottish Government (SG) analytical services to put in place a sustainable solution
• Working group – SG, GROS, ISD Scotland, COSLA, ADSW involvement
Next stepsNext steps
• Plan to put working group papers and minutes on web• Establishing a data linkage unit, separate from those
who will analyse the data• Review the role of the Privacy Advisory Committee
(PAC) – currently only covers health and GROS data• Role of the Information Commissioner’s Office• Establish Governance arrangements• Communication & co-operation with local authorities,
health boards, general public, academics• Set up safe havens for data analysis• Develop data linkage methodology• Pilot