analytical support for decision making in the security sector integration of c2 and m&s elements...
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Analytical Support for Decision Making in the Security Sector
Integration of C2 and M&S elements in CAX for Crisis Management
(federation management)
Dr. Velizar Mateev Shalamanov, Institute of Parallel Processing – BAS
Sofia 1113, Akad. G. Bonchev Str., Bl. 25 A, IPP-BAS, BULGARIA
Telephone: ++ 359 (2) 9796747 Telefax: ++ 359 (2) 8707273
Email Address: [email protected]
Outline
1. CAX based Model for Concept Development and Experimentation
2. M&S Capabilities of CAX Environment
3. CAX Federation Management
This publication is supported by NATO’s Scientific Division in the framework of Science for Peace Program -
Project SFP-981149 (2005-2007)
CoE in Operational Analyses (http://www.gcmarshall.bg/sfp981149/)
CAX based Model for Concept Development and Experimentation
Strategic Review Process: White paper
Concept Development – list of principles and options
Scenario Development
Operational Architecture
Model Environment Set-up
Pre-exercise TrainingCAX / MAX
Analysis, Assessment, Lessons,
Recommendations
Training as a Tool for Change Management in Third Generation of Security Sector
Reform• Building of Integrated Security Sector as Goal of Third
Generation Security Sector Reform
– Defense (Sovereignty, Expeditionary Operations, Territorial defense)
– Public Order and Security
– Emergency Management / Consequence Management
– Diplomacy / protection abroad
– Information operations
• Key Pillar of Integrated Security Sector - Defense Against Terrorism and Consequence Management (Crisis Management)
• Role of Training in Change Management
Third Generation SSR for Integrated Security Sector
MoD
MoI
MoEM
MoFA
Special Services
Integrated Security Sector
MoF
A
MoD
MoI
MoE
M
Spe
cial
Ser
vice
s
One Ministry’s Operation:•Defense•Public order•Emergency management•Diplomacy•Information
Complex Crisis Management Operations of
the Integrated Security Sector
Training as a Tool for Change Management
General Education / Training
Joint CAX Planning
Individual Training
Pre-exercise Training
CAXLessons Learned Analysis
Specialized Tactical Training
• CAX are main tool for training and respectively change management of complex systems. Integrated emergency management system is a typical element of complex adaptive system, which needs effective change management internally and at the same time is an effective change management tool for the whole security sector in transition from traditional national security to civil security concept.
• CAX requires integration of traditional C2 system with M&S tools to provide real test–bed for new concepts and new technologies including the key element – people in the loop.
M&S Capabilities of CAX Environment
• M&S elements in General Architecture of JTSAC– Planning and Analysis Cell
• Planning and resource management• Assessment of CAX
– White Cell / Simulation cell• Concept to scenario transition• Simulation of scenario and environment• Simulation of IEWS/Notification System
– Operations Center• Analytical Cell DMS tools• Communications Cell planning and management tolls
• Integration between scenario M&S and C2 system
Architecture of Joint Training Simulation and Analysis Center in Civil-Military Emergency Planning / Response
(JTSAC-CMEP)White Cell IEMS
White CellWIS/LL
ScenarioDevelopment
ScenarioSimulation
Emerg callsAlerting system
Meteorological info
Hydrologicalinfo
Seismologicalinfo
IEWS
Planning,Costing,
Reporting
Briefing roomPR roomVIP room
EU, NATO, UN / MIC, EADRCC, OCHA
Ministries: MoEM, MoI, MoD, MH, MoEW, MoE, MoAF
National Media, NGOs, other agencies
District EOC/LEMA as well as OSOCCMHS/IDS/WIS
Field EOCand First responders C2 elements
MHS IDS WIS Analy- tical cell
Comms cell
Functional areas incl. PR
National EOC
M&S in JTSAC Service Oriented Architecture
Scenario Modeling
Scenario Simulation
Environment Modeling And Simulation, incl. IEWNS, Network
Basic IM tools for EMS
Decision Making Support
Information Fusion and Presentation
White Cell
Emergency Operations Center
Planning
Assessment
M&S Server
WIS serverMeta simulation data
M&S in Planning and Lessons Learned Drafting
• Life Cycle of CAX
• Key role of economic dimension and PPP
• Resource Management / Contracting
• Knowledge Management
• Business Continuity Management
M&S in CAX Planning
reporting
Problems in the transformation management in the security sector
Resources
Budget
System Architect / OpNet
General architecture
Alternatives
Expert Choice
Multi Choice2
Choice
Choice of alternatives
Activity Based Costing
MS ProjectPlanQPR
Assessment
Implementation
Balanced system of indicators
Integrated system of managementExcel/Word
M&S in CAX Assessment
YesterdayYesterday
TodayToday
TomorrowTomorrow
JTSAC ArchitectureJTSAC Architecture
How to Provide Best Environment for Experimentation and Training?
How to Provide Best Environment for Experimentation and Training?
Information FlowAnalytical SupportUse of new technologies
Information FlowAnalytical SupportUse of new technologies
Scenario and Operational Architecture
Scenario and Operational Architecture
How to Develop Best Concept and Organizational Structure for CM
System?
How to Develop Best Concept and Organizational Structure for CM
System?
Minimize reaction timeMaximize effectivenessMinimize negative consequencesIncrease Society Satisfaction
Minimize reaction timeMaximize effectivenessMinimize negative consequencesIncrease Society Satisfaction
CAX team training and development
CAX team training and development
How to form and train team and develop CAX products / services for better way achieving other goals?
How to form and train team and develop CAX products / services for better way achieving other goals?
Organizational, tasking, trainingBonus payment and retaining personnel
Organizational, tasking, trainingBonus payment and retaining personnel
FinancialFinancial
How to Minimize Time and Money for Implementation of New Concepts?
How to Minimize Time and Money for Implementation of New Concepts?
Time for planning / implementingBudget to run CAXReusability of environment
Time for planning / implementingBudget to run CAXReusability of environment
Need for “proxy” organization
• BAS and JTSAC role
• Cooperation with NATO– NSC– RTO
• Cooperation with EU– DG Environment– 6 and 7 FP
• Cooperation on bilateral basis
• Regional (SEE, WBSA) cooperation
CAX and Real C2
• CAX without real C2 system
• CAX with real C2 System– Direct link
• C2 => M&S• M&S => C2• M&S C2
– Link through “air gap” and human processing• Trainees• Support staff• Combined
CAX Federation
Federation Network BUS
MoD MoI MoSPDA MoFA
PMA and CBM
PMA – Planning, Management and Assessment; CBM – Continuity of Business Management; DMS – Decision Making Support; M&S – Modeling and Simulation; DB – Data base; GIS – Geographic Information System; e-GRID – European R&D network of computing resources
Scenario Development
Scenario Simulation
M&S tools or real C2 of:
DB
GISMHS
WIS
IDS
Natural Environment M&S
from BAS Institutes
Design and M&S of the Technology
Diagrams as well as the Network and
Comms / Info Assurance
Government – Security Council, Standing Committee on Protection of Population: Integrated Security Sector
Internet DMS
e – GRID
Computing resource
International Organizations
Three critical elements
There are four critical elements in CAX architecture
• simulation cell
• operations cell
• analytical cell
• comms cell
that need conceptual, information, hardware and software integration in order to support realistic flow of the training process.
Key mechanismCurrent paper explores a model of such integration based on
static and dynamic technological diagrams with distributed nodes in these four cells.
In normal C2 system all nodes will “sit” in operations and analytical cell with tendency to have as much as possible of them in the analytical cell providing scientific best solution for problems arising during crisis management scenario.
In exercise simulation cell has to cover all nodes that is impossible to be covered by operations and analytical cells.
So in one end is a system with participants in the exercise only looking at closed simulation run by simulation cell, without any input from operations or analytical cell.
Next step is
when we have some nodes implemented in analytical or operations cell and at the other end is a full C2 system where there are no elements in simulation cell – all of the nodes are implemented in operations and analytical cell.
Interoperability patchwork1. Memorandum of Understanding between organizations
2. Standard Operating Procedures / Documents
3. Scenario as event / message list (Operational Architecture related)
4. Basic MHS/WIS/IDS to support interagency cooperation on proxy basis
5. GIS and DB (common for all organizations on proxy basis)
6. Environment simulation from different BAS Institutes – hydrology, meteorology, seismology, remote sensing, …
7. Internet simulated comms and computing power
8. CAX Federation BUS management based on Technological Diagrams
9. Integrated Implementation Plan and Balance Score Card Assessment
Conclusions - I1. Growing number of new and diverse concepts – need
for rapid experimentation and adaptation
2. Horizontal nature of the new concepts – need for cross culture training
3. Key element in concept implementation / change management is the personnel – people in the loop model for experimentation is needed
4. Low cost and flexibility of training environment is a prerequisite for large scale implementation
5. CAX and MAX balance in training and experimentation is needed
Conclusions - II
6. Evolutionary development (prototyping) and rapid implementation of the results of experimented concepts is required (CoE-OA => JTSAC-CMEP => EU TACOM SEE-2006 => IEMS FS example)
7. Integration of efforts of Administration / Forces, R&D / E&T academic institutions and business based on M&S environment is a must
8. Proxy Organization is needed to provide patchwork interoperability between all participant in federation
9. JTSAC-CMEP is a tool set to provide environment for federation management