ANALYTICS: A MODEL FOR

PREDICTIONPresenters:

Whitney CunninghamJo Pang

Robert TalbottAlex Dunagan

St. Louis City Homicides

OVERVIEW Qualitative Analysis Initial Quantitative Analysis Our Model Results Challenges Conclusion

QUALITATIVE DATA

Interview with Residents

Cop Part 1

Cop Part 2

Cop Part 3

Cop Part 4

QUANTITATIVE DATA Explored topics presented in our

qualitative analysis Uniform Crime Report: 1979-2007

AgeRaceWeapon UsedYearMonthsRelation between Offender and Victim

UCR: HOMICIDES BY AGE IN ST. LOUIS

UCR: HOMICIDES BY RACE IN ST. LOUIS

UCR: HOMICIDES BY WEAPON IN ST. LOUIS

UCR: HOMICIDES BY TIME IN ST. LOUIS

UCR: HOMICIDES BY RELATIONSHIP IN ST. LOUIS

CHALLENGES Not divided by neighborhood

Neighborhoods do not all report this data

Missing data in database

No data from 2007-2010

THE MODEL

Our model will be linked here.

THE MODELDate Estimated Total

HomicidesActual Total Homicides

Correlation between Estimated and Actual

March, 2010 36 28 0.865

April, 2010 49 42 0.881

May, 2010 68 52 .882

MARCH 2011

#1: Wells/Goodfellow

#2: Dutchtown

#2: Kingsway West

4

2

2

2

#2: Mark Twain

#2: Mark Twain/I-70 Industrial

2

THE RESULTS

4

2#3: Dutchtown

#1: Wells/Goodfellow

3#2: O’Fallon

#3: Kingsway West

2

#3: Mark Twain

2

APRIL 2011

THE RESULTS

3 #2: Jeff Vandelou 3

#2: Fairground

MAY 2011

#1: Wells/Goodfellow 4

4

#1: O’Fallon

3#2: Dutchtown

THE RESULTS

CHALLENGES TO OUR MODEL

• Demographics

• Categorization

• Time Resources

• Material Validity

• Data Time Frames

CONCLUSION: OUR PROCESS

Qualitative analysis to

better understand the

situation

Demographic analysis to find

significant trends

Historical analysis for

more accurate prediction

CONCLUSION: OUR RECOMMENDATION

Long-term NeedsContinuously analyze demographics and their impact on crime, based on each

neighborhood

Intermediate Focus

Ensure that data taken by FBI on homicides are complete and neighborhoods are listed.

Devote preventative resources to crime-susceptible areas

Immediate Resources

Push most resources on neighborhoods with most past homicides, by month

QUESTIONS?

Please feel free to comment or on question anything.