analytics and ai: the good, the bad and the ugly
TRANSCRIPT
Predictive Analytics
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Machine learning • Given examples build a
program that matches those examples
• We call that program a “model”
• Major improvements in last few years (e.g. deeplearning)
Can you “Write a program to drive a Car?”
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AI: History• Perception Tasks
• Voice recognition ( Siri, Google Agent, Amazon Echo)
• Language Understanding ( ?? )
• Video recognition ( ?? )
• Cognitive Tasks
• 1999 IBM Deepblue beats Chess Champion Kasparov
• 2011 IBM Watson beats human champion in the quiz show Jeopardy
• 2016 Deepmind’s AlphaGo beats Go Champion Lee Sedol
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AI: Status Quo
• Hitting Human performance in voice, translation
• Auto Driving ( Google, Tesla)
• Chatbot Lawyer
• AI generated Art
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Good• AI may be the next revolution
to propel human’s to next level
• Replace manual Jobs
• Age of abundance ( better food, cloths, health, education to all)
• Universal Basic Income
• We might be able to work only 4 hours a day
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Compared to pre-industrial revolution, most of us eat better, have better cloths, live better and longer than the royalty in 18th
Century
To understand, we need to pick a time
• Short Term (5 years) -Concerns right now
• Medium (10-20 years) -Concerns of wider application
• Long term - Where does everything leads
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Bad>Short Term: Bias
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It is very hard to debug the models and know what it will do (e.g. Stock Market flash
crashes)
Example: Model to decide who to hire
• Our models inherit our biases
• Models will enhance current status quo.
• Not enough data means low rank
Bad>Short Term: Other 0.01%• AI tells 99.99% of the time you will
• Commit a crime
• Does not pay back the loan
• Does not do well in life
• What if you are the 0.01%
• Also 0.01% is pushed to be 99.99%
• Filter bubble
• Suggestive advertisements ( what if they show you more cigarettes because you are in the profile)
• Idea that you are not in control ( Where is free will?)
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Bad: Medium Term: Jobs
• Autonomous diving will wipe out lot of Jobs
• Amazon Go will wipe out more
• Even professionals seem to be in trouble ( Lawyers, Doctors)
• So are Artists
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Is there anything useful left for us to do?
Bad: Medium Term>Possible Futures
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Case 2: AI is owned by all (e.g. governments)
• Use wealth to give a UBI
• Focus on larger goals to give humans direction ( explore the universe)
Case 3: We can out-law AI and try to contain it. Unlikely to work long
term
Case 1: What if there is N companies doing all
AI, robots • How can other humans pay for
services?
• Resources will run out
• A war will come sooner or later
Bad: Medium Term>There is Hope
• Humans might start thinking beyond day to day running earth
• Lot of work is interfacing: finding the data, asking questions
• Human interactions, human made will have a premium (e.g. hand loom)
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• Best work can be done by human + AI
• Most decisions are made without full information => leadership
• New Jobs ( e.g. AI phycologists)
Bad: Medium Term>Injustice of Status Quo
• Same time Status quo is not great. Many do not have
• Healthy food ( AI and automation might do it)
• Best health care (AI can do it)
• Best education (AI can do it)
• Best legal support (AI can do it)
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Is it fair to hold the status Quo and let them suffer?
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Evil AI: Why
should I do what
humans tell me?
Parental AI: these humans do not know what
is good for them, I will protect them from
themselves!
Ugly: AI Armageddon
Unconcerned AI: I need to explore the universe and to do that I need all metals and energy in earth
Can’t we build a Safe AI?• Asimov’s three Laws
• Keep power with humans
• Problem is that it is very hard formulate the requirement
• Safety of humans might means AI keep us in cages
• Happiness of Humans might mean put us in our own matrix
• Peace might mean wipe out everything
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For more detail https://www.ted.com/talks/
stuart_russell_how_ai_might_make_us_better_people
Possible Futures
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AI and Humans will merge
(e.g. Brain computer interfaces)
We figure out a limited use of AI (e.g. Advisory role or a servant role
such as Asimov three laws)
We keep AI out
AI takes over ( that will be the
end)
Conclusion
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We need to start think about Jobs changes and transitions
However, it is a economic and political problem, not a technical
problem!!
Don’t panic yet, we are not even close to general AI or self aware AI
With luck there is enough time before a threat is eminent
Bias and other immediate
problems are real
Questions?