and adaptation to climate change · current coping strategies and adaptation to climate change dr....
TRANSCRIPT
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Current Coping Strategiesand
Adaptation to Climate Change
Dr. Barry SmitProfessor of Geography
Canada Research Chair in Global Environmental ChangeUniversity of Guelph
UNFCCC Expert Workshop on Local Coping StrategiesNew Delhi, 12-13 November 2003
Existing Coping Strategies to CurrentClimate-Related Risks
how related to
Adaptation to Climate Change
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Climate-Related Risks are Part of Climate Change
Drought
Years
• more hot days and heat waves• fewer cold days, frost days• more intense precipitation events• increased risk of drought• increased tropical cyclone peak windintensities
• intensified droughts and floods
• increased Asian summer Monsoonprecipitation
• increased intensity of mid-latitude storms
Climatic Conditions as Part of Climate Change (IPCC TAR 2001)
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Scenario-Based Approach
Climate ChangeScenario
BiophysicalImpacts
Socio-EconomicImpacts
Adaptationsto Impacts
Residual orNet Impacts
Net Impacts = Impact - Adaptation
Vulnerability = Impact - Adaptation
V = I - A
CurrentAdaptiveCapacity
CurrentExposure
FutureExposure
ClimateScience
SocialScience
CurrentVulnerability
FutureVulnerability
Vulnerability Approach
FutureAdaptive Capacity
CurrentVulnerability
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• Current climate risks are part of climatechange
• Local coping strategies are the basis for adaptation to climate change
• Technologies are just part of adaptive capacity
• Promotion of Adaptation (as committed toin UNFCCC) requires local level initiatives