anderson, c.v. summer 2014 innovation final project

SEGWAY – A Failed

Innovation

Cynthia V. Anderson

EDTC 5637 Systemic Change Theory & Technology

Summer, 2014 Webster University

[email protected]

Segway is a battery-powered self-balancing two-wheeled

scooter priced way too high to catch on & has never found

its way into the mainstream.

Thesis: Segway® as an innovation failed to enter the

mainstream because it could not live up to the hype, too

expensive and did not move past an invention to an

innovation process as Rogers theory of innovation

describes.

SEGWAY – A Failed

Innovation

Anderson, Cynthia 2

“Getting a new idea

adopted, even when it has

obvious advantages, is

often very difficult” (Rogers

2003)

“I can tell you this much,

everything I’ve done so far in my

life will be insignificant if this

project is successful” ~ Dean

Kamen interview March 7, 1994

(McLean, 2001)

SEGWAY – A Failed Innovation

OverviewThe Innovation◦ The Difussion Process

◦ The Idea

Mass Media Communication Channels – Getting the word out◦ Kept A Secret

◦ Rumors

◦ Overreaching Persuasion ~ forming the favorable attitude

◦ Clues~ by influential Chang Agents enthusiasts pre-release

The Big Reveal To Journal Readers◦ Time Magazine

Innovation Name Reveal

What “it” will do

The Big Reveal To Television Viewers◦ Good Morning

America

◦ Frasier

◦ Tonight Show with Jay LenoAnderson, Cynthia 3


Overview◦ Popular Science

Award Winner

Innovation Characteristics~ adoption determents

◦ Relative Advantage ~Proven wrong

Accidents

Disability Mobility

CompatibilityCities Not Built around it

◦ Complexity/Simplicity

Training needed

◦ TrialabilityRemained unavailable

◦ ObservabilityNot present to observe

What the general public did see: Cartoons/ Poked fun of

◦ ImplementationGlide St. Louis Tours

Anderson, Cynthia 4


Overview◦ Confirmation

Disney rejects

Reinvention

The Social System

◦ Rogers Defines

◦ Equality vs. Inequality

◦ Mass Media as part of

the system

Cost

◦ Sales: Projected vs

Reality

◦ Price Projected vs

Reality

Media Messages ~

Cartoons/ Still

Poked fun of

Timeline

Restatement of

Thesis

Anderson, Cynthia 5

THE INNOVATION DIFFUSSION PROCESS

Segway

Anderson, Cynthia 6

The Diffusion ProcessTHE IDEA Communicated through certain channels

over time among the members of a social system

(Rogers, 2003, p.5)

The new product moves from initial

introduction to regular purchase and use

7

Transportation Solution

High Efficiency

Zero Emissions

Use Dynamic

Stabilization Technology

Minimal Amount of

Space

Operate on Pedestrian

Sidewalks & Pathways

(Segway Inc., 2014)

Anderson, Cynthia

KEPT A SECRET ~RUMORED TO CHANGE

THE WORLD

Mass Media Communication ChannelsGetting The Word Out

Anderson, Cynthia 8

Rumors of a new Kamen invention to “Change The World” Codenamed

“Ginger” after Ginger Rogers. Previous invention to solve mobility

problem Codenamed “Fred” after Fred Astaire (Hielemann, 2001).

Anderson, Cynthia 9

(Noble, Barnes &; n.d.)

GETTING THE WORD OUT

OVERREACHING PERSUASION - THE FORMING OF A FAVORABLE ATTITUDE

Mass Media Messages to the consumer: Clues given by influential

Change Agent enthusiasts prior to release

“As big a deal as the PC” ~ Steve Jobs

“Maybe Bigger than the internet” ~John

Doerr, venture capitalist behind Netscape

“The Segway Co. will be the fastest outfit

in history to reach $1 billion in sales” ~

John Doerr

10

(Hielemann, 2001)

Anderson, Cynthia

THE BIG REVEAL TO JOURNAL

READERS ~

INNOVATION NAME & WHAT IT

WILL DO

Mass Media Communication Channels ~ Getting The Word Out

Anderson, Cynthia 11

GETTING THE WORD OUT

OVERREACHING PERSUASION - THE FORMING OF A FAVORABLE ATTITUDE CONTINUES

Mass Media Messages to the consumer by inventor Dean Kamen

revealed to the word in a Time Magazine article, December 2nd,

2001 the name of “It” is “SEGWAY”

“The Segway would revolutionize transportation

by curbing car use and relieving urban

congestion.”

“Segways will shrink cities to the point where cars

will not only be undesirable, but unnecessary”

“Segway could help solve the problem of

overpopulated cities…Cities need cars like fish

need bicycles.”

12

(Hielemann, 2001)

Anderson, Cynthia

THE BIG REVEAL TO TELEVISION VIEWERS

Mass Media Communication ChannelsGetting The Word Out


MASS MEDIA CHANNELSKNOWLEDGE STAGE- OVERHYPED ROLLOUT

Inventor Dean Kamen unveils the Segway Personal Transporter, a

two-wheeled, self-balancing scooter to television viewers on Good

Morning America December 3rd, 2001 (Tweney, 2009)


“FRASIER” TELEVISION SHOW APR 9, 2002 SEASON 9

Niles has agreed to an experiment in which he must go everywhere

on a Segway instead of walking (Casey & Grammer, 2002).


**See full Clip Of Scene By Clicking On Image Or Watch At The End Of The Presentation!**

http://www.screencast.com/t/PyPEgXz7


STING, RUSSLE CROWE ON THE TONIGHT SHOW WITH JAY LENO RIDING SEGWAYS APR 9, 2002

Russel Crowe and Sting (aka Gordon Sumner) are shown the art of using a Segway HT by inventor Dean Kamen on the Jay Leno show (Buddy TV, n.d.).


POPULAR SCIENCE MAGAZINE'S "THE BEST OF WHAT'S NEW AWARD” NOVEMBER 2002 ISSUE

Segway Model PT awarded in the “General Technology” category

(Popular Science, 2002)


CHARACTERISTICS

Segway Innovation Adoption determinant -Overreaching behavior change required to adopt


Innovation Characteristics

All Adoption Determinants

Overreaching behavior change

required to adopt

Relative Advantages Proven Wrong

◦ 5 gyroscopes for self balancing

◦ Used by the disabled to enhance mobility


Innovation Characteristics

RELATIVE ADVANTAGE: The degree to which it is perceived to be

better than what it supersedes (Stand-up

Scooters).

The underlying principle is that the greater

the perceived relative advantage of an

innovation, the more rapid its rate of adoption

(Rogers, 2003, p. 229).

Electric, with 5 gyroscopes for

self balancing

Travel all terrain swiftly

without pollution

Speed and direction controlled

by user

Customizable to fulfill a wide-

range of activities

Used by the disabled to

enhance mobility

20Anderson, Cynthia

(Segway Inc., 2014) (Heilemann, 2001)

U.S. PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH FALLS OFF A SEGWAY

Soon after Bush's tumble in 2003 all of the models on the market were recalled because of a battery issue that caused riders to fall off when the battery ran low. (Asher, 2010)


Characteristics - Relative Advantage Proven Wrong – Adoption Determent

CONNECTICUT MAN AWARDED $10 MILLION FOR HEAD INJURY HE SUSTAINED IN A 2009 SEGWAY ACCIDENT (NBC CONNECTICUT 2011)


NEW SEGWAY INC. OWNER JIMI HESELDEN, 62, DROVE HIS TWO-WHEELED SCOOTER OFF A CLIFF AT HIS ESTATE IN ENGLAND FALLING TO HIS DEATH RIDING A SEGWAY ON HIS ESTATE (BROOKE, 2010)


A Bridgeport jury has awarded $10 million to a 23-year-old man

who suffered a brain injury in a Segway accident in2009. Jury

determined NH-based Segway & 2 employees responsible for

John Ezzo's injuries

Accidents- injuries sustained riding Segway Severe In

Wake of Heselden’s Death


Mary Pat McKay of the George

Washington (D.C.) University study

examines 41case reports

24% led to hospital admissions

Higher than the national rate after ER

visits for any reason.(McKay, MD, 2010)


Used by the disabled

to enhance mobility

◦ As of January 2009

(8 years after

launch) “Segway is

not yet considered a

mobility device for

people with

disabilities”

(Sawatzky, 2009, p.

7)

No significance

between wheelchair

outcome time measure

and Segway time

measure on obstacle

course (Sawatzky,

2009, p. 1)


Relative Advantage Proven Wrong - Used by the disabled to

enhance mobility – “The Segway for people with disabilities:

meeting clients' mobility goals.” American Journal Of Physical

Medicine (Sawatzky, 2009)


Capability: (assimilation into individuals life)The degree to

which an innovation is perceived as being consistent with

the existing values, past experiences, and needs of potential

adopters (Rogers, 2003, p. 240)

Cities will be built around it

◦ March 2002 (3 months after launch)

Kamen stated, “The bad news is if you

read any [local] regulation to the letter of

the law, it says we don’t belong on the

sidewalk” (Armstrong & Guidera, 2002, p.

2).


Adoption determinant - Overreaching behavior change required to adopt – Innovation

Characteristics

Complexity: the degree to which an innovation is perceived

as difficult to understand and use (Rogers, 2003, p. 257)

Needed Training – Too difficult to understand

on one’s own to adopt.


(Janssen's Travel Adventure Photos and Andy Janssen's Life History

Website, 2008)


Characteristics

Trialability: the degree to which an innovation may be

experimented with on a limited basis. If an innovation is trialable,

it results in less uncertainty for adoption (Rogers, 2003, p. 258).

1yr 1mon after launch, Segway

remained unavailable to consumers to

try it out

◦ “‘Should we sell it like consumer

products…?’ says Kamen. ‘It’s not clear,

so we're looking at various options’”

(Keenan, 2003, p. 42).



Characteristics

Observability: the degree to which the results of an innovation

are visible to peers and personal networks creating either

positive or negative reactions (Rogers, 2003, p. 258).

Innovation was not present to

observe

Communication among

peers & personal networks

did not occur = negative

reactions.

Individuals never saw the

results of an innovation =

less likely to adopt.

Public Reaction: Look

smug/Look like a dork/don’t

want to be seen riding them;

“Company itself was a kind of

Segway” (Graham, 2009)

What the General Public

Did See


Implementation when an individual/decision making

unit puts idea into use (Rogers, 2003 p. 169).


“Segways are a great way to tour St. Louis as you can

accomplish much more sightseeing in less time than walking

tours. And, unlike bus tours, you can still get close enough to

be part of the scenery!” (Glide St. Louis Tours)

Confirmation: Seeks reinforcement of a decision already

made; may reverse previous decision if exposed to

conflicting messages (Rogers, p. 169)

Disney rejects Segway use in theme parks- not

approved by FDA as a medical device (Burgin,

2013).Reinvention

Segway continues to

produce transportation

gliders for the following

target markets:

Gliders

Commuters

Hunters (Shown)

Adventurers


(Segway Inc., 2014)

THE SOCIAL SYSTEM

Segway


Rogers Defines The Social

System“Social determinism or the social

construction of technology, argues that

technology is shaped by social

factors.”

“Technology is a product of society,

and is influenced by the norms and

values of the social system.”


(Rogers, 2003, p. 148)

EQUALITY VS. INEQUALITY

When a system’s structure is already very unequal, the consequences of an innovation (especially if it is a relatively high-cost innovation) will lead to an even greater inequality in the form of wider socioeconomic gap (Rogers 2003, P. 471)

1. “Ups have greater access to information that creates awareness ~ Tech & business journals discussion on the introduction of the Segway is not mainstream’s (average consumer)source for awareness

2. Have greater access to innovation-evaluation information from peers ~ Evaluations of the Segways were made from couches watching television personalities demonstrate the product

3. “Ups” possess greater slack resources for adopting innovations than do “downs” ~ At a price of 5 thousand for a motorized scooter, the mainstream public disposable income did not meet the need


Mass Media Channels As A Social System

Cartoonist continue to poke fun

34

Images is copyright protected. The copyright owner reserves all rights.

(Cartoonist Group, 2005)

Anderson, Cynthia

COST ~PROJECTED SALES & PRICE VS. REALITY

Segway’s


High Price Limited Applicability & Legal

Issues

Projected Sales: 50,000 – 100,000 1st year

Reality Sales: 6,000 in the first 21 months with only aditional10,000 units through 2004

Projected Price point: $2000 Reality: $4000

Kamen interview statement about price differentiation: “I can’t tell you why we didn’t hit the target” (Dumaine, 2013)

Analyst attribute poor sales to

◦ High price

◦ Limited applicability

◦ Legal issues (illegal for street or side walk use in many cities. (Schweber, 2005)


TIMELINE

Segway’s


“I can tell you this much,

everything I’ve done so

far in my life will be

insignificant if this project

is successful.” ~ Dean

Kamen interview March

7, 1994 (McLean, 2001)

Segway Timeline March 1994 March 7th, 1994

Rumblings of a

mysterious project

Timeline

Segway woories the Federal Government will designate “It” as a Motor Vehicle

July 1999

Segway Founded

R&D to focus on creating

compact, maneuverable

devices to operate on

pedestrian sidewalks &

pathways

March 2001 2001

best-known backer,

venture capitalist John

Doerr forcast 50 – 100 Thousand in the 1st year of sales

Timeline

Segway woories the Federal Government will designate “It” as a Motor Vehicle

January 2001

The first, vague details of

Kamen's supersecret

project - codenamed

"Ginger," aka "IT" were

leaked to the press in

January 2001. Because

Kamen wasn't ready to

talk about his invention,

people guessed

March 2001 2001

best-known backer,

venture capitalist John

Doerr forcast 50 – 100 Thousand in the 1st year of sales

Timeline

President G. Miller Resigns; Former President, Subaru America

August 2001

CPSC determines

Segway is a Consumer

Product

December 2001 2002

Product launch: Good Morning America Show

Time Magazine December 7th 2001 “Here ‘It’ Is” article

Timeline

Lobying efforts begin to overturn ban from sidewalks

March 2002

Banned in San Francisco

CA.

March 2002 2002

Motorized Scooters & Segways are banned across the U.S.

Timeline

New Owner same year dies

November 2002

Popular Science Awards

Segway “Best of What’s

New

February 2004 September 27th, 2010

Disney Banns Segways from parks

Timeline

2013

Supreme Court ended attempts to force Disney to permit Segways from their parks

Timeline

SEGWAY – A Failed

Innovation

Cynthia V. Anderson

EDTC 5637 Systemic Change Theory & Technology

Summer, 2014 Webster University

[email protected]

Thesis Proven True: Segway® as an innovation, failed to

enter the mainstream because it could not live up to the

hype, too expensive and did not move past an invention to

an innovation process as Rogers Theory of innovation

describes.

Disclaimer: All material provided within this presentation is for educational purposes only. ~ Cynthia V. Anderson

THANK YOU!


As Promised! Click on the image

of Niles riding a Segway to

watch the full clip of the scene!



anderson, c.v. summer 2014 innovation final project

Technology

failed innovation anderson

failed innovation cynthia

innovation process

rogers theory of innovation

inequalitymass media

netscapethe segway

ginger rogers

releasethe big reveal