andrew warren associates

Peter Ellyard

Preferred Futures Institute

Andrew Warren Associates

Andrew Warren Associates Mortgages & Finance Launch - 31 May 2006 - Sapphire Coast Turf Club, Kalaru

Creating 21st Century Success

Ideas Warehouse


Managers and Leaders Managers Leaders Respond to change Create and Shape

change Path Taker Path Maker Do the thing right Do the right thing Guided by Fate Guided by Destiny Control Facilitate Work in the

organisation Work on the

organisation Probable

Futurist/Prophet Destination: What will

be/happen

Preferred Futurist/Visionary Destination: What should/could be/happen.

Problem Centred Strategist : overcoming/controlling

Problems /obstacles/costs

Mission Directed Strategist :

charting/ facilitating missions /initiatives/ benefits


The Manager is

Change taker Future taker Path taker This is not a recipe to

minimise risk


The Leader is

Change maker Future maker Path maker This is a recipe for minimising risk


Leadership Involves Insight : Destiny Probe.

Destiny = Aptitude + Passion

Foresight : Futures Quest Hindsight : Wisdom

Search


The Five Ps of the Future Plausible -future: What could conceivably

happen?

Probable -future: What will happen if we continue on with business-as-usual?

Prospective-future: What will happen now that fate has intervened on our journey to a probable –future, and changed the circumstances?

Preferred -future: What should happen, What is our dream?

Possible -future: What could happen, what can we now achieve, given we have limited resources, or how must we modify our journey, now that fate has intervened on our journey to a preferred-future.


1.confident: having self belief but without hubris.

2.courageous: going where others dare not, overcoming self interested opposition.

3.committed: doing what must be done, being assertive not aggressive.

4.considerate: listening and responding to the opinions and views of others.

5.courteous: showing respect in conversation.

6.compassionate: responding with empathy to victims and the disadvantaged.

Two additional Cs.

7.conciliate: building and nurturing interdependence and relationships.

8.communicate: articulating with both head and heart, ensuring both non verbal and verbal forms of expression convey the same message.

The 8 Cs of the Heart


The 6 Vs: the leader in action

Vision. What will/should be our destination, our probable / preferred future

Values. What values/ethics guide our behaviour

Virtues. What values/ethics should guide our current behaviour

Venturers. Who are, and how do we engage our champions and allies building partnerships

Voyages. What are the obstacles, improvements, initiatives and heritages

Vehicles. What do we need to do to increase our capacities and capabilities, and what ways and wares do we need to use/innovate


The 4 Dialogues

1. Destination dialogue. Foresight, Describe the preferred future/possible future destination. Vision

2. Destiny dialogue. Insight; The secret to a successful life is to understand what is one’s destiny to do and do it (Henry Ford). Destiny = aptitude + passion.

3.Director’s dialogue : what strategies do we need to achieve our destination and fulfil our destiny. Values Virtues and Venturers : champions and allies: the Who, what, where, when, why, how of achieving the destination.

4. Directions dialogue. Voyages: Obstacles overcome. Improvements made. Initiatives taken. Heritages nurtured Vehicles: Capacities and Capabilities, Ways and Ways.


How Values shape markets

Values determine what people value and find valuable

What people value and find valuable they will want more of

What they want more of will determine what they seek in markets

What is sought in markets will shape emerging innovations, products, services and technologies


21st Century Tools to Punish the Planetary

Wicked

The trade ban The customer boycott often driven

by the internet The freezing of bank accounts The strike on capital


The Cowboy Culture/ Modernism (1960)

The Spaceship Culture/Planetism (2020)

Individualism Communitarianism

Independence Interdependence

Autocracy Democracy

Humanity against nature Humanity part of nature

Production,consumption,lifestyles Production,consumption,lifestyles Unsustainable Sustainable

Patriarchy Gender Equality

Intercultural & inter-religious Intercultural & inter-religious Intolerance, Hostility Tolerance, Harmony

Conflict resolution through Conflict resolution through Confrontation Negotiation

Safekeeping through Defence Safekeeping through Security


Planetist Values

Planetist values are the values we need to create sustainable prosperity and a sustainable society on Spaceship Earth

Planetist values are the values shaping global public opinion, markets and ethics in the 21st century

Planetist values will determine what is planetary correct and ethical behaviour by individuals, companies, nations and international organisations in the 21st century


New Vehicles (Innovations) required for the emerging

21st Century Planetist marketplace

Capacities: additional and new resources we need. eg finance and technologies

Capabilities: additional and new knowledge and skills we need

Ways: what we do and how we do it (eg new strategies, cultures, principles, ethics, behaviours, agreements, relationships)

Wares: what we use (eg new designs, products, services, technologies)


Cowboys and Cosmonauts Most men who have 5 years of

education or less remain cowboys Most tertiary educated and upper

secondary educated men become cosmonauts

Most women are cosmonauts Most middle class people become

cosmonauts


Effective Risk Minimization Involves:

Maximizing choice and minimizing chance in the future. The future is part choice part chance.

Understanding the difference between being cautious and being careful.

Getting to the future first. Giving more emphasis to leadership and

less to management. Understanding the nature of the

emerging market place.


Capabilities for 21st Century Success

1. Becoming a successful 21st century adult. This includes being able to initiate and conduct successful interdependent relationships and contributing to the wellbeing of 21st century communities and organisations.

2. Being respectful and tolerant of, and comfortable with, cultural and religious diversity.

3. Being successful in a 21st century knowledge based industrial system based on the core forms of human creativity: the arts and humanities, the social and natural sciences, and the technologies.

4. Comprehending that 21st century success requires that individual rights are balanced with responsibilities to others, to the community, the environment, the planet, and future generations.

5. Being a contributor to the sustainable future rather than to the unsustainable present.


Capabilities for 21st Century Success

6. Embracing a personal value system which is compatible with emerging 21st century paradigms and realities, to carry a value system of yesteryear will invite becoming a misfit.

7. Being a leader, first of self and then of others, shaping one’s own life/career path rather than being shaped by the future. Becoming a future-maker and path-maker rather than a future-taker and-path taker. This involves utilizing insight , foresight and hindsight.

8. Being a lifelong, learning-driven and just-in-time learner to update skills and adapt easily to changing circumstances. Assuming responsibility for one’s own learning.

9. Being enterprising and innovative, constantly seeking to do old things better and new things first.


The Sustainably Prosperous 21st century Business

Gets to the future first Understands emerging global

Planetist market place Creates Ways and Wares which

will be in demand from cosmonaut customers


Reinventing Rural Communities 1

promote a planetist value system in their community and self-government;

undertake a community-based destiny probe, in which they will develop an understanding of what they are good at (aptitude) and what they love doing (passion), and consider this destiny in terms of the emerging opportunities;

develop preferred-future visions based on the community’s destiny and emerging opportunities;

initiate a strategic mission to realise the vision. This would include the new means to fund new initiatives and minimise the financial leakage from the community;

negotiate as a single entity with the outside world for the provision of products and services in order to maximise community benefit. Build a community development fund into which some income from these negotiations, and from other sources, is placed;



install high capacity connectivity, such as via the internet, to connect their community with potential suppliers and customers elsewhere rested in trading knowledge, products and services. Aggregate purchasing by the whole community in order to minimise price and maximise community benefit;

Implement strategies to attract outside expertise in these chosen industries to live in the community;

nurture appropriate brand names and other ways of differentiating the community's exported products and services;

continuously promote leadership, learning and innovation. Communities should restructure their leadership from a traditional 'control' form of management to an 'empowering' form of leadership. In the empowering form, the traditional leadership adopts a mentoring/elderhood mode, and empowers the young best and brightest to assist the community to reinvent itself.



maximise the educational achievements of the community. The more highly educated people are, the better. Create education programs which develop the skills needed for successful realisation of the community vision;

develop industrial clusters in areas of chosen industrial development based on the co-location of research and development, educational and wealth-creating enterprises;

encourage the rich and successful to show greater loyalty/responsibility to their communities by investing more in realising the community vision and providing mentoring to their own communities. Invite successful expatriates to return to the community as ‘expatriates in residence’;

ensure that there is access to and involvement with a vibrant community NGO sector eg develop effective relationships with global NGOs such as Greenpeace International, Opportunity International, Opportunity International, Amnesty International, Transparency International.


The South Coast : a Wellspring of Meliors?

Agents for Creating Distress and Bliss: Stressors and Meliors

The Pathway to Wellness : Make Meliors more abundant in one’s life than Stressors

Improving Wellness: Identifying One’s Meliors and Creating and Dipping into One’s Kitbags of Meliors

Balancing Outdoor and Indoor Meliors


The Wellness industry is the Bliss industry which provides Meliors for

Recreating : healing and renewing mind , body, spirit and relationships

Transformation of self : eg through retreats spiritual practices, creating successful adulthood - year 9 programs

Extending people through adventure and enjoyment : eg adventure tourism, extreme sports, orienteering

Testing ability and demonstrating skill : eg sport and competitive games


Tourism Involves

Appreciating and Learning about nature : eg Ecotourism

Appreciating and Learning about culture: eg Cultural tourism

Finding Wellness


Health involves

Healing -the problem centred component of treating illness

Wellness - the mission directed component of health


Wellness involves

Wellbeing, and Wellbecoming


Wellness Services Should 1:

Provide memorable and enjoyable experiences. Engender Bliss.

Nurture hope over fear, and love over hate. Provide healing and wellness programs for body,

mind, spirit and relationships. Promote excellence in performance by stretching

aspirations and capability. Balance problem-centred Healing with mission-

directed Wellness. Facilitate learning which transforms knowledge

and behaviour. eg. during puberty. Develop the capability to be both competitive and

cooperative. Celebrate, and inform about natural and social

heritage, including indigenous heritage.


Wellness Services Should 2:

Provide equity of access to all. Promote responsibility for the independent self

and fruitful interdependent relationships with others.

Promote and reward healthy living and lifestyles, good relationship making, and service to other and community.

Be customer driven and where possible be parts of transformational pathways , to provide before and after context.

Integrate intercultural activities to promote intercultural respect: eg combine white water rafting (USA) with ti chi chuan (China), orienteering (Sweden), yoga (India), bocce (Italy), abseiling (Germany) and bird watching (UK).


A Thriving Healing and Wellness System

1. Maximises universal access to healing and wellbeing services

2. Integrates healing services with allied and complementary services to maximise consumer choice

3. Encourages and enables people to improve their own health and rewards them for doing so

4. Discourages over use of medical resources by patients

5. Enables hospitals to concentrate on healing because they are not required to act as de facto nursing homes /community care centres

6. Customises services for different cultural groups


A Thriving Healing and Wellness System

7. Integrates healing services with allied and complementary services to maximise consumer choice.

8. Respects and integrates intercultural medical and wellbeing knowledge in the provision of healing and wellbeing services (eg spas, acupuncture, Chinese herbal, ayuvedya, yoga, tai chi chuan).

9. Promotes a balanced approach between community and environmental health services on the one hand and individual health services on the other.

10. Minimises the total costs to the community and to providers, including insurance costs, which are caused by excessive individual litigation against health and community service providers.


A Thriving Health and Wellness System

Promote healthy living and lifestyles by providing an extensive involvement in education and media, and by rewarding those who live healthy lives.

Is future oriented and prepares well for emerging health threats and opportunities.

Protects Australia to the maximum possible extent from foreign health threats such as epidemics and pandemics.

Provides maximum protection from and resilience to drugs and other health threatening hazards by establishing legal responses to them, in order to minimise the involvement of organised crime in these which is causes by prohibition.

Promotes the wellness of an aging population by encouraging longer working lives, new community roles for the aged and better adjustment to aging by the aged.

Ensures the long financial viability and the health creation capacity of health insurance and financial support services, by encouraging their diversification into other health areas such as wellness services (eg. spas, gymnasiums, health farms, health food, weight reduction, personal trainers, yoga classes).


Illness and Wellness

Balancing problem-centred healing and mission-directed wellness creation in health services

Balances individual and community healing and wellness services

Maximising equity of access to healing and wellness services

Deinstitutionalising as much as possible healing while maintaining service quality

Promoting and rewarding healthy living Maximising choice in healing and wellness services Utilising and integrating intercultural knowledge

for post-modern healing and wellbeing


Successful Ageing

Indian Summer Adulthood: working and staying at home longer

Changed and expanded social/ community roles such as Elderhood and Mentoring

ReEmpowering vitality and increasing fulfilment through Changed Self Perception and new Visions for the future


Indian Summer Adulthood

Ways and Wares for : Aged and disabled worker support Working from home Aged mobility Remote aged healing and wellbeing Shopping from home Home services for fulfilled living Nursing home at home


Innovation

Innovation= Doing old things better + doing new things first

Innovation = Creativity + Enterprise


Creativity

Creativity = Imagination + Synthesis of the different realms of

knowledge in the Arts and Humanities, the Natural and Social Sciences and the Technologies


An Enterprising Individual

has a positive, flexible and adaptable disposition towards change, seeing it as normal, and as an opportunity rather than a problem.

has a security born of self-confidence, and is at ease when dealing with insecurity, risks, difficulty and the unknown.

has the capacity to initiate creative ideas, develop them, and see them through into action in a determined manner.

is able, even anxious, to take responsibility and is an effective communicator, negotiator, influencer, planner and organiser.

is active, confident, and purposeful, not passive, uncertain and dependent .


Enterprise Skills 1

1. assessing strengths and weaknesses;

2. making decisions;

3. working cooperatively in teams and groups;

4. planning time and energy;

5. carrying out agreed responsibilities;

6. negotiating;

7. dealing with power and authority;

8. solving problems;


Enterprise Skills 2

9. resolving conflict;

10. planning and managing projects;

11. coping with stress and tension;

12. creating one’s own health and wellbeing;

13. evaluating performance;

14. communicating both verbally and non-verbally;

15. developing strategic visions/action plans for self and others;

16. intervening strategically and systematically to shape the future.


Successful Adulthood involves

Becoming a cosmonaut in a cosmonaut 21st century

Learning about how to become a successful cosmonaut adult in the years of puberty, the middle years of secondary school, the time used by traditional cultures for initiation into adulthood


Successful Adulthood 1

1. becoming lifelong, learner-driven learners;

2. creating career paths which bring economic and social security;

3. understanding that individual rights should be balanced by reciprocal responsibilities and service to others and the community;

4. respecting and knowing how to nurture the environment and other species;

5. respecting and tolerating other cultures and religions, particularly indigenous cultures;

Successful Adulthood 2

6. nurturing one’s own self esteem;

7. respecting others, including parents and elders;

8. initiating, nurturing and maintaining successful relationships;

9. developing healthy and sustainable lifestyles;

10. becoming enterprising self-actualising individuals;

11. Becoming leaders-of-self and then of others.


Sustainable Prosperity is a combination of four kinds of

Prosperity

1. Economic prosperity: the location of emerging 21st century industries in rural Australia. Seventy percent of the industries, products and services of the year 2025 have yet to be invented.

2. Ecological prosperity: the development of innovations and practices to live within perpetual solar income, turn waste into food, avoid and repair collateral damage to the environment, and nurture biodiversity.

3.Social prosperity: the enhancement of social cohesion and conviviality, and access to and opportunity in, learning, healing and wellbeing services.

4.Cultural prosperity: the nurturing and celebration of cultural heritage and diversity, and increased intercultural tolerance, respect and harmony.It does not involve the increasing prosperity in one form while increasing poverty in another.


Ecological Prosperity

Developing Green Ways and Green Wares which enable us to:

Live within perpetual solar income Turn waste into food, achieve zero waste Avoid or minimise collateral damage Protect and nurture biodiversity Apply the Precautionary Principle Avoid excess with Just-enough-in-place-and-time Envision, assess, realise and audit ecological prosperity


Planetist Ways and Wares Planetist markets will want ways and wares :

Ways : What we do eg actions, building relationships, behaviours, professional practices/ethics

Wares : What we use eg designs, products, services, technologies In areas such as increased:

1. Interdependence eg for long term loyal interdependent relationships/supply chains

2. Learning eg life long, learner driven, just-in time, customised, collaborative, transformative, learning to learn and think

3. Democracy eg for better consultation and collective decision making

4. Equity eg for better access, participation and opportunities for the disadvantaged in a globalising world

5. Conflict resolution eg through negotiation / mediation, peace making/peacekeeping

6. Security, eg improved awareness/warning of protection from threats

7. Intercultural and inter religious understanding/harmony eg intercultural comfort /customisation

8. Ecological prosperity eg green ways and green wares


21C Opportunities for Agriculture: Creating and

marketing Ways and Wares for:

Clean/Green Agriculture Culturally Customised Agriculture Indigenised Agriculture


Water Restoration ways and wares

1. nutrients removal ways and wares;

2.water desalinisation ways and wares;

3.water sterilisation ways and ware;

4.water detoxification ways and wares;

5.biomass removal ways and wares.


Water Protection ways and Wares

1. Nutrient input interception ways and wares;

2. Eutrophication avoidance ways and wares;

3. JEPT plant nutrition ways and wares;

4. Biodiversity enrichment ways and wares.


Watershed Management Ways and Wares

soil erosion prevention ways and wares, and soil erosion restoration ways and wares;

water run off minimisation ways and wares, and water harvesting maximisation ways and wares;

wetlands management ways and wares, and wetlands restoration ways and wares;

flood prevention ways and wares, and flood management ways and wares;

environmental flows ways and wares;

river maintenance ways and wares, and river restoration ways and wares.


Backcasting Framework

1. Obstacles overcome

2. Improvements made

3. Initiatives taken , and

4. Heritages nurtured

Include: who, when, where, why, and how?

In any of the following:

1.Work

2.Living

3.Coming and going

4.Sense of place

5.Safe and secures

6.Bliss and wellness

7.Healthy and healing

8.Conviviality

9.Green

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future plausible future

probable future

probable future

possible future

destiny dialogue

destination dialogue

destiny probe

ones destiny