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erspectives of a warming orld from frozen places vid Harwood [email protected] pt. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences DRILL Science Management Office iversity of Nebraska-Lincoln

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Page 1: ANDRILL webinar slides webinar slides

Perspectives of a warmingworld from frozen places

David Harwood [email protected]. of Earth and Atmospheric SciencesANDRILL Science Management OfficeUniversity of Nebraska-Lincoln

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Documents

Tree rings

Ice cores Sediments

Archives of Climate Change

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Elements of ClimateChange System and Feedbacks

CRYOSPHERE

LITHOSPHEREBIOSPHERE

HYDROSPHERE

CO2

CH4

H2O

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What will the future be?

What will help us predict this?

New York region in the past.

Has this happened before?

20,000 years ago

4 million years ago

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Long Island

Numbers are 1,000 yearssince glacial retreat

Timing of the ice sheet retreat

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Greenland & Antarctic ice core records

oxygen isotopeshydrogen isotopesdustmethanecarbon dioxide

annual layers of snowfall

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Gas bubbles in the ice…

…trap the ancient atmosphere

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ICE CORES drilled through the ice sheet

Vostok Ice Core

EPICA Ice Core

WAIS Ice Core

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Ice Core CO2

280

230

180

`

Vostok ice core, Antarctica

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Ice Core temperature

`

Vostok ice core, Antarctica

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CO2 & temperature

280

230

180

`

Vostok ice core, Antarctica 384TODAY

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Present CO2 levels

Projected CO2 levelsdouble CO2 by 2100

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Shape of the Earth’s orbit

Tilt of the Earth’s axis

Position of the Earth seasonally

100,000 year cycle

41,000 year cycle

19,000 & 21,000 year cycles

What controls the ‘heartbeat’ of climate change?

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i c e

c o

r e

s

s e

d i m

e n

t c

o r

e s

Integration of geologicaldata with the testing power of numerical models in supercomputers.

A lot is learned from‘failed’ model runs….

… e.g. ice sheet sensitivity to climate forcing and feedbacks.

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Deep Sea Drilling Project

1972

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CO2 and temperature proxies

after Zachos et al., 2008

from Pagani et al., 2008

after Crowley and Kim, 1995

R. Levy ‘09

Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum

Onset of Antarctic glaciation

Millions of years ago

Long-term Cenozoic climate recorddecline in temperaturepunctuated warm and cold phases

Onset of Arctic glaciation

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Note time scale change today

CO2 levels

IPCC AR4

ANDRILLFUTURE

TIMETARGET

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Which of the Antarctic Ice Sheets were activeIn the past climate cycles?

Will they be active in a future warmer Earth?

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Stratigraphic drilling for ice sheet history

from a proximal marine shelf setting

to reveal the pace and magnitude of change,

and to test climate sensitivity through

data and numerical modeling integration.

The Time Machine

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Today

Antarctic ice ages 40 million year record of climate and ice volume variation. How often? How fast?

The past is a guide to the future…

4

Future? Distant future?

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ANtarctic geological DRILLing

www.andrill.org

Goals:

Recover high-quality Antarctic rock and sediment cores;

Interpret paleoenvironmental changes;

Construct a Cenozoic history of the cryosphere;

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photo C. Millan

www.andrill.org

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Drilling systemMinerals industry rig

Diamond bit coring

Wireline core recovery

Three sizes of drill-string

98% core recovery

Source: Chicago Tribune

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850 m water depth

1285 m sediment column

98% recovery

MIS Project

85 m ice thickness

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Victoria Land Basin Transantarctic Mountains

W. AntEast Antarctica

MIS and SMS Project drillsites

McMurdo Sound region

MIS SMS CRP

CRP

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Lucia Simion

a 9-meter core run

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Lucia Simion

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Angie Fox

Sediments deposited beneath the ice shelf

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Angie Fox

Distal diatom-rich muds - - little to no ice is present

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Antarctic diatoms - - one celled algaeengines of the Antarctic food chain

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Angie Fox

Sediments beneath a grounded ice sheet

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photo: R. Powell

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6.48MaDiatomite

ANDRILL McMurdo Ice Shelf Project upper 600 mbsf0-100 m 100-200 m 200-300 m 300-400 m 400-500 m 500-600 m

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40 glacial-interglacial cyclesin the last 5 million years

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Data and Model Integration ANDRILL MIS

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5-6 meters sea-level

rise

~ 60 meters sea-level

rise

If these ice sheets were to melt…sea-level would rise

Greenland Ice Sheet 5 to 6 meters more… IPCC AR5

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any questions, please...

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Where to Drill Next?

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ANDRILL Coulman High ProjectFuture Drilling:

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Effect of higher bedrock topography in Eocene (Wilson and Luyendyk 2009; WL09):

Ice models by D. Pollard

After Studinger & Barrett (2009)

More ice predicted at E-O

ISAES XI Edinburgh

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Coulman High Drilling Targets

Key Science Drivers:1. Uncover the evolution and behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in a high CO2 world (> 600 ppmv)2. Constrain West Antarctic geography through time to improve ice sheet models

AND CH-2 AND CH-1

GREENHOUSE WORLD CO2 > 1000 ppmv

CO2 > 600 ppmv

> ~20 Ma

> ~30 Ma

WEST EASTWater depth 843 m Water depth 814 m

Palmer line 0301 1A0; Interpretation by Sorlien, Luyendyk, D. Wilson; UCSB

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ANDRILL’s Education and Outreach Program

Louise HuffmanANDRILL Coordinator of Education and Outreach

www.andrill.org/[email protected]

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2006Front row: Kate Pound, Julia Dooley, Robin Frisch-Gleason, Louise

Huffman

Back row: Joanna Hubbard, Rainer Lehmann, Bob Williams, Ken Mankoff, Graziano Scotto di Clemente

ARISE Teams (ANDRILL

Research Immersion for Science Educators)

2008

Shakira Brown-Petit

2007

Vanessa Miller, Matteo Cattadori, Julian Thomson,

Betty Trummel, Alexander Siegmund, LuAnn Dahlman

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Teaching Essential Principle 5:Our understanding of the climate system is improved through observations, theoretical studies, and modeling.

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How can I use this principle in my teaching?

• The most direct method to overcome students' misunderstanding or phobia of science is to immerse them directly in an interesting and tangible scientific question.

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How Does Melting Ice Affect Sea Level

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What if the Ice Shelves Melted?

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Dead Diatoms Do Tell Tales

• Build model sediment cores with sand and glass beads to represent diatoms

• Examine types, numbers and conditions of the different beads

• Draw conclusions about the climates indicated by their evidence

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Access to the tools scientists use

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Antarctica’s Climate SecretsA resource package for teaching climate change

www.andrill.org/education

•5 Themes

•Resources to teach climate change: o 200+ page activity book o 5 posters o videos

•Learning through hands-on activities and models

•Kids become teachers/scientists: “Flexhibit” model (FLEXible exHIBITS)

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Flexhibits—Students as Teachers

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Posters available in many languages

Available Languages:

•Arabic (posters and activities)•French•German•Italian (book and videos, too)•Maori/New Zealand English•Spanish (poster activities)•and soon Russian

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Environmental Literacy Framework (ELF) Materials

5 Units—Climate Change: A System of Systems

Systems or “spheres”:AtmosphereBiosphereGeosphereHydrosphere/

CryosphereEnergy– as the driver of

interactions within and between

the spheres

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Questions?

Louise Huffman

[email protected]

www.andrill.org/education