andrés schuschny - ren21
TRANSCRIPT
Andrés SchuschnyDirector of Studies, Olade
REN21 Academy Session: Energy Outlook of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020
All PPTs from the REN21 Academy can be found on the Academy Knowledge Library page on the REN21 website
http://biblioteca.olade.org/opac-tmpl/Documentos/old0450.pdf
How is the Latin America
and the Caribbean Energy
Sector acting to confront
the Covid-19 Pandemic?
http://bit.ly/ImpactosCovid
Impact analysis of the
COVID-19 pandemic
on the Energy Sector
of Latin America and
the Caribbean
http://barometro.olade.org(Spanish version)
Energy Barometer of Latin
America and the Caribbean
2020: The challenges of the
energy sector in the post-
pandemic
Effect of the Pandemic on the Energy Sector of Latin America and the Caribbean: Objective and methodology
Analyze the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the development of the LAC energy sector, for a timespan 2020-2040.
Objective
MethodologyPrepare and compare a forecast energy development scenario for the 2018-2040 period, considering the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on energy demand and supply, with a reference scenario for the same projection period, based on to energy development policies and plans, established before the pandemic.
The study was carried out for the LAC region, divided into 4 subregions and 2 countries analyzed individually:• Brazil• Mexico• Central America (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama• Andean Zone (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela)• Southern Cone (Argentina, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay)• The Caribbean (Barbados, Cuba, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Suriname and
Trinidad & Tobago).
Simulation and Analysis Model of the Energy Matrix(SAME – OLADE).
Computational tool
Corresponds to demand and supply forecasts made before
the Pandemic (policies and expansion plans in progress).
Premises:
• Implementation of energy efficiency programs
• Greater penetration of electricity in end uses.
• Substitution of liquid fuels of fossil origin for natural gas.
• Substitution of firewood consumption by modern energy
sources.
• Penetration of biofuels in the transport sector.
• Greater penetration of renewable energy sources in the
electricity generation matrix.
• Greater penetration of natural gas in the electricity
generation matrix, displacing other fossil fuels.
It incorporates the effects of the pandemic on the demand
and supply of energy, correlating GDP and energy
consumption.
• IMF GDP Projection (WEO 2020, Oct) for the period
2019 - 2025 were used.
• From 2025 onwards, the latest projected GDP variation
rates were held constant.
• Final energy consumption was projected, using linear
logarithmic correlation functions between this
consumption and the nominal GDP of each subregion.
• For the participation of energy consumption by sectors
and sources, the percentage structure projected in the
BAU scenario was taken, but considering for the years
2020 and 2021, an increase in the participation of the
residential sector.
26.2
-2.0
-4.0
-4.0
-4.5
-5.5
-5.5
-5.6
-5.8
-6.0
-6.0
-6.6
-7.9
-8.0
-8.2
-8.6
-9.0
-9.0
-9.0
-11.0
-11.6
-11.8
-11.8
-13.1
-13.9
-16.0
-25.0
-7.9
-30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0
Guyana
Guatemala
Haiti
Paraguay
Uruguay
Costa Rica
Nicaragua
Trinidad & Tobago
Brazil
Dominican Rep.
Chile
Honduras
Bolivia
Cuba
Colombia
Jamaica
Mexico
El Salvador
Panama
Ecuador
Barbados
Grenada
Argentina
Suriname
Peru
Belize
Venezuela
LAC
%
% of GDP variation 2019-2020
2019-2020
(%)
2020-2021
(%)
2021-2022
(%)
2022-2023
(%)
2023-2024
(%)
2024-2025
(%)
Argentina -11.8 4.9 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.7
Barbados -11.6 7.4 3.9 1.8 1.8 1.8
Belize -16.0 8.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 2.0
Bolivia -7.9 5.6 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.7
Brazil -5.8 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2
Chile -6.0 4.5 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.5
Colombia -8.2 4.0 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7
Costa Rica -5.5 2.3 3.4 3.0 3.1 3.2
Cuba -8.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Ecuador -11.0 4.8 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.3
El Salvador -9.0 4.0 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.2
Grenada -11.8 3.0 5.1 5.0 3.4 2.7
Guatemala -2.0 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.3
Guyana 26.2 8.1 29.5 22.3 2.1 1.1
Haiti -4.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4
Honduras -6.6 4.9 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7
Jamaica -8.6 3.6 3.8 2.9 2.5 2.1
Mexico -9.0 3.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1
Nicaragua -5.5 -0.5 2.7 2.0 1.8 2.1
Panamá -9.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Paraguay -4.0 5.5 5.0 4.2 4.1 4.0
Perú -13.9 7.3 5.0 4.9 3.9 3.8
Dominican Rep. -6.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Suriname -13.1 1.5 2.0 2.8 3.0 2.1
Trinidad & Tobago -5.6 2.6 4.2 1.8 1.5 1.5
Uruguay -4.5 4.3 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.4
Venezuela -25.0 -10.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0
LAC -7.9 3.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4
Source: World Economic Outlook, IMF, October, 2020
Only Guyana will have a GDP growth due to the take off of its oil industry (but not affect the Caribbean results significantly)
Projections the GDP at constant prices
Source: Own elaboration based on IMF data.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
109
US
D o
f 2
010
Brazil, Mexico, Southern Cone and Andean Zone
Brazil Mexico Southern Cone Andean Zone
-5.8 %
-9.0 %
-12.3 %
-8.9%
Fall due to the pandemic
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
109
US
D o
f 2
010
Central America and the Caribbean
Central America The Caribbean
-6.4 %
-6.0 %
Fall due to the pandemic
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
109
US
D o
f 2
010
Years
Latin America and the Caribbean
Fall due to the pandemic
Projections of GDP at a constant prices LAC
-7.9%
The contraction of LAC's GDP due to the pandemic is equivalent to a setback of around a decade.
Source: Own elaboration based on IMF data.
Projections of the final energy consumption
Source: Energy Outlook of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020, OLADE.
Southern Cone-9 % compared to 2019
-11 % compared to BAU (2020)
Brazil- 7 % compared to 2019- 9 % compared to BAU (2020)
Andean Zone- 10 % compared to 2019
-11 % compared to BAU (2020)
The Caribbean- 3 % compared to 2019- 5 % compared to BAU (2020)
Mexico- 9 % compared to 2019
-11 % compared to BAU (2020)
Central America- 3 % compared to 2019
- 6 % compared to BAU (2020)
Final energy consumption
would fall by 8% compared to
2019 and 10%, compared to
2020 of the BAU scenario
Latin America and
the Caribbean
≈
≈ The arrows (green and red) and the approximate sign indicate the variations with respect to the prospective exercise that OLADE carried out in May 2020
Projection of the sectoral energy consumption
Southern Cone-9 % respecto del 2019
-11 % respecto del BAU (2020)
BrazilAndean Zone-9 % respecto del 2019
-11 % respecto del BAU (2020)
The Caribbean
Central America-5 % respecto del 2019
-7 % respecto del BAU (2020)
Latin America and
the Caribbean+2% (2019) & +0% (2020BAU)
-8% (2019) & -10% (2020BAU)
-6% (2019) & -10% (2020BAU)
+8% (2019) & +4% (2020BAU)
-6% (2019) & -8% (2020BAU)
-3% (2019) & -8% (2020BAU)+4% (2019) & +3% (2020BAU)
-8% (2019) & -12% (2020BAU)
-8% (2019) & -12% (2020BAU)
0% (2019) & -2% (2020BAU)
-12% (2019) & -14% (2020BAU)
-11% (2019) & -14% (2020BAU)
+1% (2019) & +2% (2020BAU)
-11% (2019) & -13% (2020BAU)
-11% (2019) & -13% (2020BAU)
Mexico-5 % respecto del 2019
-7 % respecto del BAU (2020)-2% (2019) & -2% (2020BAU)
-10% (2019) & -12% (2020BAU)
-11% (2019) & -12% (2020BAU)
+1% (2019) & +0% (2020BAU)
-10% (2019) & -11% (2020BAU)
-9% (2019) & -12% (2020BAU)
-12% (2019) & -14% (2020BAU)
-8% (2019) & -10% (2020BAU)
-6% (2019) & -8% (2020BAU)
-11% (2019) & -12% (2020BAU)
-8% (2019) & -12% (2020BAU)
-11% (2019) & -13% (2020BAU)
-10% (2019) & -12% (2020BAU)
Source: Energy Outlook of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020, OLADE.
The green arrows indicate the variations with respect to the prospective exercise that OLADE carried out in May 2020
Projection of the electricity generation
Southern Cone-5 % compared to 2019
-8 % compared to BAU (2020)(NG falls)
Brazil-4 % compared to 2019-7 % compared to BAU (2020)(cae GN, Carbon Mineral)
Andean Zone-6 % compared to 2019
-9 % compared to BAU (2020)(NG falls)
The Caribbean1 % compared to 20193 % compared to BAU (2020)(Coal and Diesel – Fuel,NCRE increases)
Mexico-7 % compared to 2019
-10 % compared to BAU (2020)(NG and Coal fall)
Central America-1 % compared to 2019
-6 % compared to BAU (2020)(Diesel – Fuel falls)
Electricity Generation would suffer
a drop of 5% compared to 2019 and
8%, compared to the 2020 BAU
scenario(NG, Diesel – Fuel and Coal
fall)
Latin America and
the Caribbean
≈
≈
≈The arrows (green and red) and the approximate sign indicate the variation with respect to the prospective exercise that OLADE carried out in May 2020
Source: Energy Outlook of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020, OLADE.
Projection of the CO2 emissions
Southern Cone-13 % compared to 2019
-13 % compared to BAU (2020)
Brazil-12 % compared to 2019-14 % compared to BAU (2020)
Andean Zone-11 % compared to 2019
-13 % compared to BAU (2020)
The Caribbean-5 % compared to 2019-6 % compared to BAU (2020)
Mexico-11 % compared to 2019
-12 % compared to BAU (2020)
Central America--9 % compared to 2019
-13 % compared to BAU (2020)
CO2 emissions would fall by
11% in 2020, compared to the
2019 and 13% compared to
2020 of BAU scenario
Latin America and
the Caribbean
Source: Energy Outlook of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020, OLADE.
The arrows (green and red) indicate the variation with respect to the prospective exercise that OLADE carried out in May 2020
Renewables: 59.4%Renewables: 58.5%
Source: Energy Outlook of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020, OLADE.
≈
In 2017, hydro power projects received 46% of flows, 19% solar, 7% wind, and 6% geothermal. Latin America and the Caribbean received 21% of the total.
Source: OECD & IRENA (2020), Renewable Energy Public Investments Database
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Average in
vestmen
t per p
roject
(USD
millio
n)
Inte
rnat
ion
al f
inan
cial
flo
ws
to
dev
elo
pin
g co
un
trie
s (U
SD b
illio
n)
Multiple/other energy sourcesGeothermal energyWind energySolar energyHydropowerLatin America and the Caribbean
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (2018)
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•
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•
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