andy abatiell jason ireland joseph odusina daniel silva rajoo€¦ · rectifying column reboiler...
TRANSCRIPT
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Ethanol Production in Oklahoma
Andy AbatiellJason Ireland
Joseph OdusinaDaniel Silva Rajoo
Zafar Zaidi
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Scope of our study• To determine if the production of ethanol
would be a worthwhile investment in the state of Oklahoma.
– If so, determine the NPW, crops used, and plant location(s).
– If not, determine why it is not feasible.
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Outline• Introduction
– Why Ethanol?– Market Analysis
• Feedstock– Selection Criteria– Crop Availability
• Possible Technologies– Fermentation– Dilute Acid Hydrolysis– Gasification
• Results– Why is a model
needed?– Model Variables– Sensitivity Analysis– Conclusions and
Recommendations
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Why do we need Ethanol?• Causes gas to burn more efficiently.
Comparisions of Oxygenated and Non-Oxygenated Gasoline
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
All Vehicles Passenger Cars Light Trucks
CO
Em
issi
ons
(g/m
i)
Non-Oxy
Oxy
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Why do we need Ethanol?• Used as an additive in gasoline.
Gasoline Composition Currently
Total AHC30%
Total SHC37%
Benzene0.5%
Total USHC7%
Toluene7%
m/p Xylene5.2%
Ethylbenzene0.3%
MTBE11%
o-xylene2%
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Problems with MTBE• Contaminates groundwater.
Blue = MTBE Flow in Groundwater
Red = Ethanol Flow in Groundwater
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Legislation
• Several states have passed or enacted MTBE phase-outs (MN, IA, NE, CA).
• Need subsidies to make ethanol production more competitive.
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Current Production
• 68 Ethanol Plants
• Produced a total of 2.1 billion gallons in 2002
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Projected Ethanol Demand
6.0I 13.0H 10.3G15.1F106.2E3.9D74.2C9.4B1.8A
MGal
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Distillers Grain• Two different types:
1) Dry Distillers Grain 2) Wet Distillers Grain.
• Sells for $30/ton in wet form, and $75/ton in dry form.
• Sold to feed different types of cattle. • Total cattle population is 5.25 million in
Oklahoma
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Ethical Concerns?• Some groups vehemently protest using
Ethanol.
• Why use feed crops to make gasoline?
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Feedstock Analysis
• 44 million acres of land/ 11 million for agriculture.
• Possible feeds: barley, cotton, peanuts, switchgrass, wheat, and corn.
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Selection Criteria
• Harvest Time• Starch content of feedstock• Transportation/Storage Cost• Production of marketable by-products• Cost of processing
Crops chosen : Wheat, Grain Sorghum and Switchgrass
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Availability of CropsTotal Feed Supply from Each District
Central OK15%
South Central OK7%
North Central OK21%
Panhandle11%
Northeast OK11%
East Central OK7%
Southeast OK3%
West Central OK12%
Southwest OK13%
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Wheat Selection
• Highest selling cash crop in US and 3rd in Oklahoma (6 million acres, about 1.3 million in North Central district)
• Estimated 165 million bushels in 2003 and selling for $3.20/Bu
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Wheat Distribution in OklahomaTotal of 3.9 million tons of wheat produces a year
Wheat Harvested by District in Oklahoma
South Central OK1%
Central OK9%
Southeast OK0.2%
East Central OK0.5%
Southwest OK20%
West Central OK18%
Northeast OK6% Panhandle
16%
North Central OK30%
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Grain Sorghum Selection
• Over 310,000 acres was harvested in 2002,and about 14 million bushels is to be produced in 2003/2004
• Over 70% goes to livestock in OK
• WDG byproduct high in protein content
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Sorghum Distribution in OklahomaTotal of 0.49 million tons of sorghum produces a
yearSorghum Harvested by District in Oklahoma
North Central OK30%
Panhandle34%
Northeast OK7%
West Central OK4%
Southwest OK19%
East Central OK1%
Southeast OK1%
Central OK3%South Central OK
1%
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Switchgrass Selection
• Over 3 million acres to be harvested in 2003/2004.
• Central OK is the leading switchgrass producing district in Oklahoma (~1 million acres)
• Has a high conversion to ethanol during processing.
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Switchgrass Distribution in Oklahoma
Total of 4.78 million tons of switchgrass produces a year
Switchgrass Harvested by District in Oklahoma
South Central OK13%
Central OK23%
Southeast OK6%
East Central OK12%
Southwest OK7%
West Central OK8%
Northeast OK16% Panhandle
5%
North Central OK10%
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CROPS COMPOSITION
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Wheat comp. Sorghum Switchgrass
Crop
other
hemicellulose
lignin
nsp
cellulose
fat
starch
Protein
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Harvesting timeMonthly Trend of Harvested Crop
0.0E+00
4.0E+05
8.0E+05
1.2E+06
1.6E+06
2.0E+06
2.4E+06
2.8E+06
3.2E+06
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Tons
of C
rop
SwitchgassSorghumWheat
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Processing Technologies
1) Dry Mill Simultaneous Saccharification/Fermentation
2) Dilute Acid Hydrolysis
3) Gasification
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Fermentation Process (Dry Mill)
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Mash Grinding/Cooking/Liquefaction
Grain
H20
Mash
Hammer MillSlurry Tank
Steam
Cooker
Starch Form : Amylose, AmylopectinCooking Column:
Starch
(250 F)
Inert Organic
(185 F)
Inert Organic/H20
enzyme (alpha amylase)
Dextrine/Maltose
Enzyme: alpha amylase
Liquefaction Vessel
Liquefaction Vessel:
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Fermentation Process (Dry Mill)
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Simultaneous Saccharification/Fermentation
Saccharomyces Cerevisiae Yeast Beta-Amylase
Mash
CO2 to Scrubber
9 wt% ETOH
74 wt % H20
17 % inert organicglucose
85 F
Oxygen
C6H12O6
yeast
2CH3CH2OH + 2CO2 + heat
(glucose ) (ethanol)
nC6H12O6
enzymes(C6H10O5)n + nH20
(starch) (glucose)
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Fermentation Process (Dry Mill)
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Distillation/Stillage Recovery
Stillage to Evaporators (inert organics/glucose)
45 wt% ETOH
55 wt% H20
Beer Column
Condensate to Hammer Mill
95 wt% ETOH
Rectifying Column
74 wt% H20
9 wt% ETOH
17 wt% Inert Organics/Glucose
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Fermentation Process (Dry Mill)
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Molecular Sieve/Dehydration
Regeneration Condenser
Recycle Drum
Dehydration Beds
200 Proof ETOH
3 A molecular sieves
H20 adsorbs onto sieve structure
Uses regeneration cycle to prolong bead life/ lower operating costs
°
5% gasoline195 proof denatured ETOH
Ethanol Vapor Stream
Water Stream To Beer Column
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Fermentation Process (Dry Mill)
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Centrifuge/Evaporation Wet Distillers Grain
Whole Stillage
Thin Stillage
Wet Grain
Evaporator Syrup Tank
Distillers Grain Tank (65% moisture)
SyrupFlash Tank
Scrubber
Centrifuge
H20
H20
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Equipment Pricing (20 MGY)Major Equipment (quantity) Description (each) Material CostHammer Mill 1.5 in to 100 mesh $490,000Cooker 5100 gallons carbon steel $70,000Liquefaction Vessel 7650 gallons carbon steel $85,000Fermenter (4) 250,000 gallons stainless steel $1,600,000Pre-Fermentor Heat Exchangers (4) 840 ft^2, Fixed Tube Sheet stainless steel $73,000Vent Scrubber $15,000Byproduct Storage carbon steel $30,500Cooling Tower 10 degree, 25 F range carbon steel $257,000Beer Column D=5.5 ft 22 trays stainless steel $273,000Beer Column Condenser 1870 ft^2, Fixed Tube Sheet stainless steel $31,000Beer Column Reboiler 5600 ft^2, Fixed Tube Sheet stainless steel $73,000Rectifying Column(1) D=7.5 ft, 30 trays stainless steel $316,000Rectifying Column Condenser 1000 ft^2, Fixed Tube Sheet stainless steel $18,000Rectifying Column Reboiler 2300 ft^2, Fixed Tube Sheet stainless steel $34,000Syrup Tank(2) one 100,000 gallon, one 50,000 gallon carbon steel $170,000Boiler carbon steel $609,000Gasoline Storage Tank 40000 gallons carbon steel $80,000 Ethanol Storage Tank 136,000 gallons, API floating roof carbon steel $136,000Molecular Sieve (9 pieces) $572,000Centrifuge HS-805L, 31.5'' x 104'' $400,000Evaporation System 40000 ft^2 $1,000,000Beer Well (5) four 100,000 gallon, one 50,000 gallon carbon steel $460,000Total Cost $6,792,500
Equipment Pricing
Total Equipment Cost (20 MGY) = $7 million
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Equipment Cost Methodology
• Material Balances were constructed to size necessary equipment and vessels
• Pro II simulations were run to design distillation columns
• Vendor information was used to price most equipment
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Dy Mill TCI v. Capacity
05000000
10000000150000002000000025000000300000003500000040000000
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000
Capacity (tons/yr)
TCI($
)
20 MGY Plant:TCI = $35 millionOperating Cost = $10 million
Dry Mill Economics
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Processes for Lignocellulosic Crops
HemicelluloseCellulose
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Hemicellulose Hydrolysis
Lime
Gypsum
Biomass
1.1 wt% Sulfuric AcidWater
LP Steam
To Cellulose Hydrolysis
To Xylose Fermentation
Air
335 F
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Cellulose Hydrolysis
Solids from S/L Separator
Lime
Gypsum
To Glucose Fermentation
Cellulase
150 F
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Fermenters in Parallel
Xylose Fermenters• Ferment 5 carbon sugars• Use the yeast Pachysolen tannophilus
Glucose Fermenters• Ferment 6 carbon sugars• Use the yeast Sacromyces cerevisiae
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Lignin Fueled Furnace
Air
Bottoms from Beer Column
Water
Steam
Water
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Dilute Acid Economics
20 million gallon plant:TCI = $50 million
Operating Cost = $20 million
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GasifierBiomass
Syngas to Bioreactor
Air
1200 F
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Fermentation
Product Stream
Syngas from Gasifier
Outlet Gas
Nutrient Feed
80 F
pH 5.3
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Gasification Economics
20 million gallon plant:TCI = $80 million
Operating Cost = $12 million
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Technology Comparison
Capital and Operating Costs20 Mgal/yr Ethanol Plant
12 M80 MGasification20 M50 MDilute Acid10 M35 MFermentation
Operating Costs($/yr)
TCI($)
Plant Type
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Technology Comparison (cont.)
0.1710.1680.169Gasification
0.2990.0380.043Dilute Acid
0.0230.2860.277Fermentation
SwitchgrassSorghumWheat
Feedstock to Ethanol Conversions
(tons ethanol / ton feed)
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Decision to make when building a plant
• Can this be done manually?• How do we calculate all the variables and decide
the optimal solution?
TechnologyLocation
Feed Source Feed Type
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Plant Capacity = 131568 tons
Plant Location = Garber
Decision made is
NPW = $29.5 million
Relationship between feed supply and plant
Plant Location = Garber
Feed Supply = 7 points Wheat =
Sorghum =
Switchgrass =
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What if there is more than 1 plant and many feed sources?
Feed Supply = 78 points
Plant Location = 9 points
Therefore using a model would make the calculations possible
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Mathematical Model Flow
I
I
Feed Location
j,g
Plant Location
j,g
Ethanol Produced
Feed Transported
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Decision for building an Ethanol plant based on
( )
( )
∑
∑∑
∑∑ ∑
−
−
−
−
−
=Investment
Capital
CostOperating
CostStorage
CosttionTransporta
FeedBought
Sales
LifeDftNPW *
The plant is chosen based on MAXIMIZING the NPW
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Variables which affect the profitability of the
Ethanol plant
Bought Feed
StorageTransported Feed
Operating Cost
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Variables which affect the profitability of the
Ethanol plant
Plant Throughput
Ethanol Produced
Capital Investment
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Feed
∑∑
≤
Feed
HarvestedFeed
Bought
9-plant locations
78-feed locations
3-types of feed
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Plant Throughput
≤
SizeMax
TrhoughputYearly
≥
Throughput
MinimumTrhoughput
Yearly
( )12
ThroughputYearlyducedPro
Ethanol≤
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Capital Investment
+
=
Intercept
FCIThroughput
PlantSlopeFCI
InvestmentCapital
≤
FCI
MaximumInvestmentCapital
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( ) ( ) ∑∑∑∑
−
+≤ −
tttt ocessed
FeedFeed
BoughtStorageStorage
Pr1
Storage
∑∑
−
=
g ti tt ocess
FeedFeedBought
storage11
1 Pr
1st Month Storage
Subsequent Month Storage
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Operating Cost
=
oduced
EthanolSlopeOP
CostOperating
Pr
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Transportation of Feed
=
planttoSource
ofeistancDFeedBought
FeeddTransporte
*
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Ethanol Produced
∑∑∑
=
ocessedFeed
Effeciencyocess
oducedEthanol
Pr*
PrPr
( )12
*2.1Pr
SizeMaxoduced
Ethanol≤
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Generalized Model• Consider only locations in Oklahoma.• Transportation Cost = $0.01678/ tons*mile• Storage Cost = $0.81/tons• Ethanol price =$390/tons• Maximum Plant Capacity = 200 million
gallon• Minimum Plant Capacity = 8.7 million
gallons
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General Mathematical Result
Total Feed Bought per month
Capacity (million tons)
NPW( $ million)
Ethanol produced
(tons/month)Plants Capital
investment ($) Wheat Sorghum
garber $22,504,130 391.58 8839.26
clinton $21,736,270 391.58 8839.26
hobart $22,808,630 391.58 8839.26
broken_bow $20,554,580 391.58 8839.26
0.658 $2,508 54822
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• Operating CostTotal Plant Operating Cost
0
20
40
60
80
yr3 yr4 yr5 yr6 yr7 yr8 yr9 yr10
Number of Years
Ope
ratin
g C
ost (
mill
ion
$)
•All plants were built in the first 2 years.
•Start producing Ethanol in the 3rd year.
•Each plant capacity produces 55,000 tons of ethanol per month
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• Economic and Sensitivity Analysis based on– Feed Source Variation– Capacity Variation – Cost Variation
• Deterministic and Stochastic Analysis
• Conclusion
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Feed Source From Bordering StatesTotal Feed Source From Neighbouring States
Oklahoma71%
Kansas15%
Arkansas0%
Colorado3%
New Mexico0%
Mssouri2%
Texas9%
Types of Feed Available from Other States
0.E+00
2.E+05
4.E+05
6.E+05
8.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+06
Texas Kansas Arkansas Colorado Mssouri New Mexico
States
Tons
of C
rops
WheatSorghumSwitchgrass
•Majority feed comes from Texas, Kansas and Colorado.
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• Capacity VariationNPW vs Plant Capacity
0
500
1000
1500
2000
0 5 10 15 20 25
Plant Capacity (million tons of ethanol/year)
Tota
l NPW
of p
lant
( m
illio
n $)
•NPW increase linearly with plant capacity
•Linearity is because the capacity is also a linear function of the operating cost and capital investment
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• Percent Variation of Bought FeedNPW vs Bought Percentage of Harvested Feed
2480
2500
2520
2540
2560
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Percent of Harvested Feed
Tota
l NPW
of p
lant
( m
illio
n $)
•NPW increases with the availability of harvested feed
•Increment is linear because its a function of bought feed
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When Bought Feed < 10% of Total Feed Harvested
NO PLANTS BUILT
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• Ethanol Price VariationNPW vs. Ethanol Price
-$2,000
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Ethanol Price ($/gal)N
PW ($
)
•NPW increases the price of ethanol
•Increment is not linear and it is a function of other variables, i.e. process feed and operating cost.
•NPW =0 when ethanol price falls below $0.6/gallon
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Ethanol Price ($/gal)
Number of Plants Location Capacity
(tons) Technology Cap. Investment ($)
NPW ($ million)
$0.59 0 0 0 0 $0 $0
$0.60 1 Broken Bow 657860 Fermentation $21,000,000 $4
Pauls Valley $21,000,000
Garber $23,000,000
Clinton $22,000,000
Broken Bow $21,000,000
Garbar $23,000,000
Clinton $22,000,000
Hobart $23,000,000
Broken Bow $21,000,000
Garbar $23,000,000
Clinton $22,000,000
Hobart $23,000,000
Broken Bow $21,000,000
$1.10 4
Fermentation
Fermentation
Fermentation
$0.75 4
$1.00 4
$260
$1,250
$1,900
657860
657860
657860
Result From Ethanol Price Variation
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• Storage Cost VariationNPW vs Storage cost for Bought Feed
1500
2500
3500
4500
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Storage Cost ($/ton)
Tota
l NPW
of p
lant
( m
illio
n $)
•NPW decreases with the storage cost
•Increment is not linear and it is a function of other variables, i.e. Bought feed and capacity of plant.
•No plant will be built if the storage cost is above $2.0/ton of feed.
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Result From Storage Cost VariationFeed Bought ( million tons)
Stoage Cost ($/ton) Plants Wheat Sorghum NPW ( $
million)Capacity
(tons)
garber
clinton
hobart
broken_bow
garber
clinton
hobart
broken_bow
garber
clinton
hobart
broken_bow
garber
clinton
hobart
broken_bow
$0.50
$0.81
$1.00
$2.00 0.00
2.94
1.57
4.70 45.85
35.36
35.36
9.42 $2,053
$2,814
$3,111
$3,970 657860
657860
657860
657860
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Transportation Cost Variation
•NPW decreases with the transportation cost
•Cost is related to the bought feed and distance
•No plant will be built if the storage cost is above $0.2/ton of feed.
NPW vs Transportation cost for Feed
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
Transportation Cost ($/ton*mile)To
tal N
PW o
f pla
nt (
mill
ion
$)
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Transportation Cost = $0.0168/tonTransportation Cost = $0.06/tonTransportation Cost = $0.2/ton
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• Operating Cost Variation
•NPW decreases with the operating cost
•It is a function of the number of plants and process feed.
•NPW =0 when the operating cost increases by a factor of 3.2
NPW vs Operating cost Variation
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Operating Cost Multiplier
Tota
l NPW
of p
lant
( m
illio
n $)
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Deterministic Model Results• It is feasible to pursue ethanol production in
Oklahoma provided that:– 4 proposed plants use fermentation technology.– Feed supply is from Oklahoma and parts of Texas,
Colorado and Kansas– Feed chosen is mostly sorghum and wheat.– Ethanol Price > $.60/gal– The storage cost < $2/ton– Transportation Cost < $0.2/ton– The operating cost < 3.2 times the original
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Include mathematical model optimization with scenarios.
Perform risk analysis on Ethanol Plant Feasibility.
50 to 100 scenarios were required for the stochastic model.
Parameters varied:
=
Sdt
iceMeanEthanol
normalice
Ethanol
s
,PrPr
=
Sdt
MeanHarvested
normalAmountHarvested
s
,
=
Sdt
MeanCostOperating
normalCostOperating
s
,
Stochastic Model Optimization
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Stochastic Model Results with 5 scenarios NPW versus Scenarios
2300
2400
2500
2600
s1 s2 s3 s4 s5
Scenario
NPW
(mill
ion
$)
Ethanol Price versus Scenarios
384
386
388
390
392
s1 s2 s3 s4 s5
Scenario
Etha
nol P
rice
($/to
ns)
Plant Location Technology yr1 yr2
broken_bow FER $20.55
broken_bow HYD $30.83
Capital Investment for year plant is built (in million
dollars)
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Resource requirement for Stochastic Model Optimization
• Model Size:– 100 scenarios each for 3 parameters.– 118 feed source locations– 9 plant locations– 3 feed types– 3 technologies– 240 months of plant life
• 2 GB of RAM used for data compilation
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Conclusions• It is feasible to pursue ethanol production in
Oklahoma according to the Deterministic model
• Preliminary analysis on Stochastic model proposed an alternate solution
• Further analysis on the Stochastic model can be completed once necessary resources are made available