andy j gap analysis and crop wild relatives bellagio sept 2010
DESCRIPTION
Presentation made by Andy Jarvis in the workshop on Adapting agriculture to climate change: The role of crop wild relatives, in Bellagio, Italy, 7th-9th September 2010.TRANSCRIPT
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Gap Analysis
Andy Jarvis, Julián Ramírez, Nora Castañeda, Robert Hijmans and Jacob Van Etten
© Neil Palmer (CIAT)
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Why Gap Analysis?
• Tool to assess crop and crop wild relative genetic and geographical diversity
• Allows detecting incomplete species collections as well as defining which species should be collected and where these collections should be focused
• Assesses the current extent at which the ex situ conservation system is correctly holding the genetic diversity of a particular genepool
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To know what you don’t have, you first need to know what you do have
….and that’s where things already get complex
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Welcome to database hell
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The visible global system
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The Gap Analysis process
Proxy for:
• Range of traits
Proxy for:
• Diversity
• Possibly biotic traits
Proxy for:
• Abiotic traits
• Identifying gaps
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WHEAT MILLET
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The Gap Analysis pathway
Taxonomy review Data gathering Georeferentiaton
Environmental
data gathering
Gap Analysis
process
Final
recommendations
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An example in Phaseolus
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Herbarium versus germplasm: Geographic
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Herbarium versus germplasm: Taxon
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Geographic coverage: Potential
P. leptostachyus
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Geographic coverage: Taxon priorities
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Conserved ex situ richness versus potential
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Priorities: Geographic and taxonomic
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“Validation”: The man versus the machine
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Model priorities versus expert priorities
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Gap Analysis
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Methodology and codeMethodology
Code
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Taxon-level and genepool level priorities
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Wild Vigna collecting priorities
• Spatial analysis on current conserved materials
• *Gaps* in current collections
• Definition and prioritisation of collecting areas
• 8 100x100km cells to complete collections of 23 wild Vigna priority species
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Even better: resistance distance
McRae, B.H. 2006. Isolation by resistance. Evolution 6(8), 1551-1561.
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Threats
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CWR supporting adaptation but also threatened by climate change
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CWR supporting adaptation but also threatened by climate change
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CWR supporting adaptation but also threatened by climate change
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More immediate threats….
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Conclusions and open-ended issues
• Gap analysis can focus priorities for collecting, and cost/benefit lies in collecting multiple genepools simultaneously
• But, analysis as good as input data• If you can’t see the data, is the collection
valid?• Multiple methods available• Key question: what is a “complete” collection?