angela lee, annenberg school for communication, university of pennsylvania

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    Is the Medium the Message?Is the Medium the Message?Predicting Popularity of Top U.S. News SitesPredicting Popularity of Top U.S. News Sites

    with Mediumwith Medium--Specific FeaturesSpecific Features

    Angela M. Lee

    Annenberg School for Communication

    University of Pennsylvania

    [email protected]

    Twitter: angelamlee

    12th International Symposium on Online Journalism

    Austin, TX

    April 2, 2011

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    McDonalds wanted to improve sales of its shakes

    Most researchers: Should the shakes be thicker? Sweeter? Colder?

    Gerald Berstell: Focused on the customers

    Early morning

    Always alone Rarely bought anything besides shakes

    Never consumed the shakes in the store

    Who are they?

    Milkshake mistakes?: Focus only on the shakes itself; assumebreakfast means bacon & eggs to all, etc.

    Implications: 1. Who the consumers are affect how products areproduced & marketed. 2. Its not only about the thingitself, but also

    howand whyconsumers use it.

    angelamlee

    Milkshake Mistakes - Shirky

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    Despite the growth in web usage, the top news sites remain

    stable and are mostly sites tied to legacy media outlets (2011State of the News Media Report).

    Importance of branding, source credibility, andtrustworthiness online (e.g., Abdulla et al., 2005; Meyer, 2009; Lin,

    Salwen, Garrison & Driscoll, 2005).

    Online news consumption: Known

    Note: Simulated data

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    But what accounts for this exponential differences, given all

    top 10 sites offer news by comparably trustworthy sources?

    Process gratifications, measured by 5 online news-specific features

    Online news consumption: Unknown

    Source: Nielsen

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    Online news: A whole new experience?Online news: A whole new experience?

    In the past, differences in news media predominantly equate

    differences in mediated experiences regardless of genre Print newspapers: Textual and pictorial

    Radio news: Audio

    Television news: Moving pictures with audio

    How does the Internet change things?

    Same platform forall(e.g. newspapers, TV news stations, etc.)

    to fight for audience attention

    Competition for news providers online is no longer only that of

    content, but also consumption experiences (Seelig, 2008)

    New ways to consume news (i.e., much more choices)

    New ways to measure and study news consumption (Tewksbury,2003)

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    Mediumizing online news and the InternetMediumizing online news and the Internet

    How is online news a news medium? What sets it apart

    from other news media? What do we mean by the Internet asnew media?

    To answer both questions require a prioriunderstanding of

    medium-specific attributes

    Uses & Gratifications: Focuses on media uses by centering on

    the relationship between media attributes and the functions

    they serve to users

    Content gratifications (i.e., for entertainment or diversion purposes)

    Social gratifications (i.e., For conversational uses)

    Process gratifications (i.e., The actual mediated experience)

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    Updated U&G: 5 online newsUpdated U&G: 5 online news--specific processspecific process

    gratificationsgratifications

    1. Interactivity Interaction and interplay between producers &

    consumers (Chan-Olmsted & Ha, 2003)

    Audience-oriented: Choices of content available to the

    users to interact with (Ha & James, 1998; Seelig, 2008) Source-oriented: Reciprocal communication between

    users and media (Ha & James, 1998; Seelig, 2008)

    Golden standard or key advantage of the Internet(Quinn, 2005; Ha & James, 1998)

    2. Immediacy

    Timely updates on breaking news (Deuze, 2003)

    Real-time distribution of news (Quinn, 2005)

    Immediate correction of misinformation (Seelig, 2008)

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    5 process gratifications5 process gratifications -- continuedcontinued

    3. Multimedia

    Amalgamation of texts, pictures, audio and video(Quinn, 2005)

    Delivery of content in more engaging and creative

    ways (Killebew, 2005; Sundar, 2000), which offers richer

    process gratifications (Spyridou & Veglis, 2008; Huang,, 2007).

    4. Information availability

    Use of hyperlinks to additional information (Ha &James, 1998)

    Online news is about 4 times more likely toincorporate information from other news outlets than

    print newspapers (Maier, 2010)

    Offering of a plethora of information from rich and

    diverse sources (Ferguson & Perse, 2000)

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    5 process gratifications5 process gratifications -- continuedcontinued

    5. Usability

    Factors that contribute to navigability, user

    productivity and performance (Wilberg, 2003; Nielsen, 1994;Schneiderman, 2004)

    Ease through which average users navigate a news site

    in order to locate additional information With more channel and content choices than ever

    before, Internet users can forgo less user-friendly sites

    without worrying about not getting comparable news

    information from elsewhere.

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    HypothesesHypotheses

    The more a news site incorporate the 5 medium-specific

    features, the more likely it will attract audiences.

    Among the top 10 news sites in 2009, all else being equal

    H1: The top three sites will utilize the five online news

    interface-specific features differentlyfrom that of the bottom

    three sites H2: Use of the five online news interface-specific features

    will positively predict popularity of these top news sites

    RQ1: Which of the five online news interface-specific

    features is the best predictor of popularity?

    RQ2: How does each top news site use the five online news

    interface-specific features?

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    MethodMethod

    Sample: Yahoo News (#1), MSNBC News (#2), AOL News

    (#3), ABC News (#8), Washington Post (#9), USA Today(#10)

    Data: Recorded at 11am everyday for the entire month of

    June, 2010 using Automator (Mac) and Safari web browser

    IV: Interactivity, immediacy, multimedia, information

    availability, usability

    See codebook for detailed list of all items included in each

    feature (all items standardized and summed)

    DV: Nielsens measure of unique audience visits

    Statistical analysis: 1. Independent Sample T-Test (H1), 2.

    Maximum likelihood regression using structural equation

    modeling

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    ResultsResults

    Supportive ofH1, the top three top 10 news sites

    consistently used more immediacy feature, t(166)=9.39**,multimedia feature, t(166)= 2.31*, information availability

    feature, and usability feature, t(166)=3.59**.

    Supportive ofH2, use of the five online news interface-

    specific features significantly predicts popularity among thetop sites (R2 = 0.97).

    RQ3: Information availability is the strongest predictor

    (b=1.22*); followed by usability (b=-.77**), immediacy

    (b=.46**), multimedia (b=.29**), and interactivity (b=.07*)

    Post-hoc: ABCs abnormally large number of popularity

    stories (i.e., most viewed, most commented, most emailed)

    contributes to the negative slope in the usability variable

    Note: *p

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    RQ2: How do these top sites utilize the five onlineRQ2: How do these top sites utilize the five online

    newsnews--specific features?specific features?

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    TakeTake--home lessons:home lessons:

    More popular top sites are consistently more online news

    interface-specific feature-heavy

    The five online news interface-specific features significantly

    predict differences in popularity among the top ten news sites

    Information availability is the strongest predictor ofpopularity among the top ten news sites:

    Special section with more extensive news coverage on select topics

    Special reports on select issues

    Number of total stories Number of alternative sources

    Hyperlinks to news stories from other sources

    Hyperlinks to relevant information from other sites

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    Future studiesFuture studies

    Repeat this study including mid-range top 10 news stories

    Consider weighting individual items in each variable

    Track how evolution in usage of the 5 features predict

    popularity over time

    Interview actual news consumers for more holistic

    understanding of a potentially wider range of online news-

    specific process gratifications not accounted for in this study

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    ConclusionConclusion

    Changes in Internet-use diffusion and online news media

    landscape lead to ever-evolving online news consumptionpatterns, and result in new opportunities for studying such

    behaviors (Lin, Salwen, Garrison & Driscoll, 2005; Garrison, 2005)

    These changes call for empirical research to examine not

    only causesbut also effectsof emerging consumptionpatterns

    First we need to decipher how the Internet appeals to

    consumers as a news medium so we can maximize its

    medium-specific strengths to better match 21st centurydemands and desires

    Online news consumption studies should focus not only

    on content but also medium.

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    Is the medium the message?Is the medium the message?

    The medium is not the whole message in online news

    consumption, the whole picture includes credibility,

    news quality, news brands, etc., butthe medium tells an

    important and compelling story that deserves, and

    ought to be heard.

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    Thank you for your time and attentionThank you for your time and attention

    Angela M. LeeAngela M. Lee

    [email protected]@gmail.com