anita breuer 2099

7/27/2019 Anita Breuer 2099

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/anita-breuer-2099 1/34

23

revista de ciencia pOLítica / vOLumen 29/ nº 1 / 2009 / 23 – 55

The Use of GovernmenT-InITIaTed referendUms

In LaTIn amerIca. Towards a Theory of

referendUm caUses

El uso de los referendos de iniciativa gubernamental en América Latina. Hacia una teoría sobre las causas del usode votaciones populares iniciadas por el gobierno

AnitA Breuer

Department of Comparative Politics, University of Cologne

ABstrAct

Ov h wo h h b obl h bof f wolw. th xg l o o h o ffl o xl h hoo b lvg o ho o h of f. th xlov kg ow log hg b fog o h f of fl go- f(FGir) h l . ug Qca ( -v hq

b o h fol log of Bool lgb), h ll o holl oo of 49 l fo 12 L ao o h fo h o ob h o of FGir. iol h FGir lol lk o hgh lvl of fgo go, .. wo fo whh h log b obl h ox of l , whl h obo l ow o hf ool ovo glg h f v.

Keywod: rfé, L a, Fgo, d do.

Resumen

En las últimas dos décadas ha existido alrededor del mundo un considerable aumento enel número de votaciones populares. Sin embargo, la literatura existente sobre democraciadirecta no ha sabido explicar el fenómeno mediante una teoría consistente de las causas delos referéndums. Este estudio exploratorio busca dar un paso adelante para cerrar esta brecha,enfocándose en los referendum facultativos iniciados por poderes políticos formales (facultative

government-initiated referendums - FGIR) y su uso en los sistemas presidenciales. UtilizandoQCA (técnica basada en lógica formal de álgebra booleanas), este estudio hace una comparaciónsistemática de la estructura de oportunidades políticas de 49 sistemas presidenciales de 12 países de América Latina, para detectar los factores que estimulan u obstruyen la ocurrenciade FGIR. Se concluye que los FGIR están fuertemente ligados a altos niveles de fragmentación partidaria y gobiernos divididos, dos factores que han sido problemáticos en los contextos desistemas presidenciales. Por su parte, la obstrucción se debe principalmente a provisionesconstitucionales específicas que regulan los dispositivos de las votaciones populares iniciadas por el gobierno.

Palabra Clav: Plebiscito, América Latina, fragmentación, democracia directa.



anita Breuer

24

i. intrODuctiOn1

Fo h 1960 ow, o o of h wol b h of

o o h wo , h l lo of o h obl (Ld, 2003).2 th h hollo o , obl h gg oh b blh ow jol h fl of oll . so f hl h l fo o h wo o h o fql f,swzl h u s o h ll (L Bäl, 1999; Gb,1996; polo, 2001; tolb Ho, 1996; v Fg, 2006), whl llb of blo h fo o h w of f l h oof eo go (Hg s, 2000; Fkl et al., 1995). th blo

h gl ob o o kowlg gg h impact of f o ol o ol . How, h h o o o hoo h causes of f. th obj of h o k l ow bgg h g.

to lg x, h ‘boo’ o b ow h b of z- f , o l x, o f(mol, 2001) th lo h b wlo b o of owho hz h ol of h ool o fo boo- o l

obl (Bb, 1984; sh, 2000). nhl, o l oo, o-o f o o oll qo h b b gog bo .. lgl o x. sh go- f, whh of f o lb,3 h lgh g ooo, lgl ool o oll o-kg h h of l offl.

d obg ll o h oll o, h o of facultative government-initiated referendums (FGir)4 o hol zzl (rh, 2007).

1 i wol lk o hk Kh Hohl abl péz Lñá fo gol hg h . rhfo h l w bg h 2006 s shool mho thq of h eo coofo political reseach unde the guidance of pof. Benoît rihoux, who atiently continued to advise me

o h vl g of vlo. th h lo of gl fo h

ov q of wo oo vw. all g k f , of o,

ol obl.2 i o o o hogh, h h obv f o h vg b of o

v h ol lvl . Howv, f lo o h b of

o h hv bl l o b o h h l of o h

o ov h w (al, 2007; Bl & r, 1994).3 a sk (1993) h o o, h gv ooo go bk o h b of h o-ll nolo

f g h h . H hfo g h wh ‘ g o h of ‘lb’ o v fl o o f wh h fwok of o ol

o-kg (sk, 1993, . 11). Followg h g, h h lb v

fo h go of ho olo h hl who -xg lgl b h o of

l oll g. Whb h ‘f’ o o ooll gl

ol olo, whh gg b govg ho.4 th wo ‘gov’ g fho h, gg govg ho gl, ..

b of boh xv lglv bh of gov.



tHe use OF GOvernment-initiated reFerendums in Latin america. tOWards a tHeOry OF reFerendum causes

25

Whl bl h z wll o of o-kgwh g h gh o o o, oll l’ of o h o oh. Wh o gog ho o f?

Wh hol oll lg oll g h ooolo lgl, b ow oww, ql hl wh o z oll o-kg, ll xo hl o h k of log h bllo box? th l of h xlo o o ol w oh qo.

ii. cAse seLectiOn, HYPOtHeses AnD MetHODOLOGY

d wg g ll- h l fll of lo b, whhh b hoologl wg o o ol (G, 2003;Kg et al., 1994), hol whhg o o xlo o ohghol og wll o h l o ll hoogogo of l (B et al., 2004; mho, 2007). thfo, h foo L a go wh o h b o bFGir. Fo h 1980 ow, o L a o o o of o o h go’ oo o fo w of o . d h , w f ol ofo wh h

ox h o L a h l o-ow ff.pl lo of boo- h b xol wh 87 of ll ol ll o og L a gh wh l w-f , bg b gog ho(al, 2005). ag h bkgo, h go o g lboofo h folo g of hoh o h of h o of FGir. ioll l o L a, h h lo xll b lwh l o h o ow go l of oll o (B,2003; ell, 2003; L, 1995; mog, 2002; phl, 1998). Followg Wl’

fo of o-ol ‘a political strategy through which a personalistic leader seeks orexercises government power based on direct, unmediated, uninstitutionalized support from large

numbers of mostly unorganized followers’ (Wl, 2003, 1067), h of FGir h b of h g ool box of o-ol lh. How, o-ol f o o xbl lk. Whl ho L a o-ol l lk p’ Fjo vzl’ cházlo FGir, oh lk ag’ m Bzl’ collo mllo o. tho h lhogh lh l bl b xlg oll ho, o b b ol (Lz s,1978, 4-5). H, f w wh o lz h fo h FGir, w wll h o go bo h ool o- oh o o ow hoo wh whh oll o o.

Obg h o o-ol L a, w f h ho o wh h oo hol h of FGir, h h b g



anita Breuer

26

h fq of FGir. i eo, fo xl, fo o bw1980 2005, wh Gl, wh f w oolz 1985, o gl FGir h b hl o .5 th h oll

oo o o FGir, whl oh wok o h obo. thl o o h o f o o fw l wh lx h of o . How, f w wh o h oo h o o h of FGir, w h o o hhoologl o of lg o h l of h oo bl. cl o b f b l h l o o wh f w hl, h o h o b o g ool go of oblg (G, 1990; Ljh, 1971).

1. Dfg h uv of Aaly

i h , h oo of , .. h o of Fl Go irf (FGir) f facultative referendums which may be triggered either by the

executive, and/or a given number or percentage of members of the legislature, or the executive and

legislative branch of government in co-operation, lz h o-ll of oll. How, og h h of o oo bl hoo whh h h o of oll o o o hgo , o bl o hoo o- ll . i h ggg o- o o-o h o o obol .

i o o h -hoog, whh fo gfloo ql h (mk, 2004; rg, 1992), h l o: fl, h oll of L a who h cbb, ol, howhh blog o l l g, hl, wh h o of 1980-2005, ll, wh FGir ol h lkl o.6 th l o q fhxlo. Ql h of h xlo of ho, .g.

w. H, whl h b of obol bg o oo l ll, h b of oog wh g oo, .g. o-w, oll f, lg oo of h ol h k of bl. i o o h b of g , h o h ‘obll’ b mho Goz (2004). th l ol h ol

5 th o, hogh, w wo v of o f o ool fo 1994 1999.6 O L a, g h o of obo fll flg l x h u

s, Gh, ng, ug, soh Ko, h phl. O of h o ol h phlkow fl go f o h ol ll. Lk L a, h phlw ogll oloz b s. dff fo h L a o how, followg h of sh olol l 1898, h phl x lo hlf of us-a l l,whh lf o oll l (Go 1999 2008). colol hg oll l ghl o o ffg vbl l oll l (Ljh, 1984; L,

1992). th phl w hfo xl fo h l o o h hoog of o

olo of lv .




27

ho wh h oo of h l obl of o hol bl, whl wh h oo l h o-zo obbl hol blg o h of fo h l obo. i h ,

h o ho o gh bw g l obo hx of lgl oo fo FGir o h ol ll g h obol o.iokg sk’ (1993) olog, h l wll b o whh ‘-gl f’ hl og o ooll o oh lgl o wobl, whl wll o ol h obl of ‘ ho lb’ hl ho of l oll g.

Whl h obl l ll fl o b of o , lo look h of h xl f l h bl o whg o hoog.

th chl lb of 1980, 1988, 1989 w ook b h poh lgo h w o h o’ o oo. th vzllb of al db 1999 o h ooo of o bl, hlol lw fo h lo of o bl lg h fo of hoo f b h bl w ook b of cház.th follow h ol oll of vzl’ ol 1998(mco, 199; mog, 2007) k h g o o h o of oogh o’ blh oll o. th colob lb o ool

fo of 1990 w ook b of G bql l bg b h s co. i ook l w of x ol og h bl lh b h colob g l. th g of h lbh b f b h o La Septima Papeleta (h h bllo) whhg h ol obl olo o h oll h hl fo h fl of h ol oll l o h q o of h o’ oll o (v co, 2000).

i , h, h whl h -ho lb obol l o ol wh

lzg ff o of g foo, h o wll l h k o g h g ho of oll o ol oo kg o.

alogh, h o of 49 o fo wl L ao,7 whh l tbl 1.

7

O lo xl h of ug. alhogh h o h go’ o fq of o, o o blog o o v of l oo o o ov fo

flv gov f. i ug, o o l h oo l

q fo b ol vo o f, whl h gh o gg f o

o lglo v o z. aoh f v xl b h o o lgll

-gl f h ag lb of 1994 o h bo wh chl ov h

Bgl chl zo, whh w ook followg o bw p alfo h sco.



anita Breuer

28

tbl 1: L a ao cog h u of al

co ao c i

ag

clo m, 1989-1995

clo m, 1995-1999Fo l rú, 1999-2001eo dhl, 2002-2003néo Kh, 2003 o

arGm1

arGm2arGrarGdharGK

Bol clo m, 2003-2005eo rogz, 2005-2006

BOLmBOLro

Bzl

Joé s, 1985-1990Fo collo mllo, 1990-1992i Fo, 1992-1995Fo coo, 1995-1999Fo coo, 1999-2003

Lz igáo Ll sl, 2003-2006

BrasBracolBraFBrac1Brac2

BraLl

chlpo alw, 1990-1994eo F rz, 1994-2000ro Lgo, 2000-2006

cHialcHiFcHiLg

colob

cé G, 1990-1994eo s, 1994-1998aé p, 1998-2002Álo ub, 2002-2006

cOLGcOLscOLpcOLu

co r abl pho, 2002-2006 cOsp

eo

J roló, 1979-1981Olo Ho, 1981-1984Ló Fb coo, 1984-1988rogo Boj, 1988-1992sxo dá Bllé, 1992-1996ablá B, 1996-1997Fbá aló, 1997-1998 Jl mh, 1998-2000Go nobo, 2000-2003Lo Gz, 2003-2005

ecurolecuHecuFbecuBoecudecuBecualecumhecunobecuG

Gl

mo czo, 1986-1991 Jog so, 1991-1993

ro Ló co, 1993-1996alo azú, 1996-2000alfoo pollo, 2000-2004Ó Bg, 2004 o

GuacGuas

GuaLoGuaazGuapoGuaB

ngvol Bo choo, 1990-1997aolo alá, 1997-2002eq Bolño, 2002-2007

nicBnicalnicBol

pg

aé rogz, 1989-1993 J clo Wo, 1993-1998rúl cb G, 1998-1999L Gozálz mh, 1999-2003

no d, 2003 o

parroparWparcbparGo

pard

palbo Fjo 1995-2000albo Fjo, m 2000-no 2000aljo tolo, 2001-2006

perFj2perFj3pertol

vzl Hgo cház, 2000-2007 vench2




29

2. slo of caal codo ad Wokg Hypoh

Hg f o of , w ow h l qo of h: wh FGir o g o of h o wh h o

o g oh lhogh h oo fl h g? s holll h o o l bl hoh o h of f l , h off h o of FGir bg g o oo l o, whh ll l .sh l o b g oo whh ff foob o o ofgol oo h h holg of f ll g oo fo oll o.

th o h h oo wll b f ofgo of

ho- oxl fo h l h h l of h o , - fo h o b bl hogho o ffgh oll ow bl , log- ol fo who g ffo oll o-kg bl o l o. th hoh g l oo blow, w lbo followg gof gog bk foh bw ho (rg, 1987; rhox rg,2009). i.. f , hoh w l b o h hol h l o l o. i o , h ho f bk o h l o o ol

l oo, f h o oolzo of oo -f hll ol.

) sho-t Fo

aog o Lz (1990), l o o -bh ofl o h og l of h x lgl bh of go.How, h o ol h o ol h ofl lglo o o of o of o-of o o , o lo ol og ll fo - lo. th l o whbh g h lg of og, og q h o of h, o o of h l ow o l o o lo owh oh (péz-Lñá, 2003). i h o, oll o fo h bh o o f o o bol h lg g h l h ohow.

H1: Acute presidential crises are conducive to FGIR

aoh f of l h hgh bl of h off of h who ‘is taken to be the embodiment of the nation and the main custodian and definer

of its interest’ (O’doll, 1996). th hgh bl xo l hwh hg oq fo who fl o flfll h. a Hohl (2006) hhow, o h , o b bl f wh lfo h l gl o ol l fll. p



anita Breuer

30

fg o of l o f o l g :) o bl o fo ol ol o ol o, b) oll offg o oblz go of z (Bzk, 2001), ) w o

lg obl fo ol o b ‘g h bk o h o’ (Bl r, 1994, 20; sälä, 2006).

H2: High levels of civil unrest are conducive to FGIR

b) m- Fo

ml o zbl b of L a’ l o o hol h g h ofl o lkl l o, whh k -bh goo o ffl xb

xg obl of l (mwg, 1993; Jo, 1995). i h o,h x o oool lglo ol f o o ol holl l h oo bh of go.

H3: High levels of party system fragmentation are conducive to FGIR

a h b of , o o h lklhoo of go f o whh h ’ o o ool jo of lgl ,o bl , jo of l o of h hb.8 O obllo of go l bw og h . i

h o, oll o h o o bg o of lok o o h ol gol wh h o lbl o wh bh of go hool (cox Kll, 1991). th f o h o whh, go h f ool glo, b xl o of h lgl,o h x, o lbl o boh bh.

H4: Divided government is conducive to FGIR

u ol , h h of x l l lo. How, fx , f of l

g, l o o whh h ff h of x lk h o lgo. dg o h ool oo whh l of l o of ’ , h o o h o o-l o o o h o of off, o h b o b h h g who oo of h bl o olo (Lz, 1990). sh o o b o o fo hlk of lgo b g f ol o of of hh o o f ol .

H5: Missing direct democratic legitimation of the effective executive is conducive to FGIR

8 Fo h o of h , i o h hl fo b chbb (2002). Fo l fo chbb (2002b) elg (2001).




31

) Log-t Fo

Whl h l o l o o o l hgg obl log- fo o o FGir l , o h

o h b w fo oo bw eo’ L a’l o of o. cog h wo go, w f h hff gfl wh o h of o ol olo. FGir eo o b gl- o. Wh eo z ll o h oll bh go, h oll h o o f of ol. alof o eo’ ol l h l ho l oo h f w ogz o o o foh g o o o g o og lo o o l h gol olo (mol, 2001; sälä, 2006). mwhl, FGir La’ l o follow ff log.9 H, h lo gll l o ool fo (al, 2005) z of h o oo log of fo ool. th gg h FGir L a gh b l o hgh g of ool g, .. of h ooq -jo who flfll ol hgh o o h kg f l.

H6: Constitutional rigidity is conducive to FGIR

mo f ghl o o ol b oool fo hfo ogo o l g oolg (Ljh, 1999; ak Ko, 2002). How, h oh o flfo h l o of h : h x of o f oool fo fl f o ool lw obl.coql, h b of o f o oofo h holg of fl f o ool fo, whh bl fo h o of h .

H7: The absence of provisions for mandatory referendums is a necessary but insufficient condition

for the occurrence of any FGIR that involves constitutional reform

3. Qalav compaav Aaly (QcA) a a Mhodologal Appoah

Q, bl-o h o o obbl g of l. i olg ff of bl o bl ol w l. th go hq oll loo h o o h o h h ff of bl o h bl l .

9 pobl o wh h of l wgh h ol b h o L a

b fo lo, wll h bl ff bw l l wh g o olo foo vvl (al, 2000).



anita Breuer

32

th , b o, xlog h oo h l o h oo ol f olo of l hfo q ff hg. Wh o o lzg h oo wh whh oll

o , o bl o b of h oh ll.effl, h l wol of oll o-kg, ll o bl of bl ogh h b l l ol og h oo (rg, 1987; po skool, 2002).

Qca hfo off b of g fo h o of h . i -hq b o h fol log of Bool lgb. Whl Qca o f o of mll’ ho of g ff (mll, 1865), ff foh o . th mll ho o o gof l. th fo o l fo whh of /

o ff: a oo ff, f lw wh h oo ,h oo lo , wh oo , f lw wh h oo , h oo lo . aog o mll’ oh, l oo of h oh h ol o l h o h oo.

Qca, b o, o o h o of ll ojl o h blh inus oh o o b b mk (1965). a mk ooh, ll, ll of . th , oo b bogh bo b b of l of fo. eh l ff o bg bo h

ff, b o of h . th h l fo insufficient b nonredundant of unnecessary b sufficient oo. th o of llojl o bl h h o blh h b h of h ofgol h h l o h oo of xlo (rg, 1987;mho, 2007).

th hoh fol bo hol b h . th , whl oof h l oo o ii.2 x o b ll o ff o bg bo f, h oo h

f g, wll o of ff obo of ho, log fo.

iii. QcA PrOceDures AnD cAse stuDies

th f of Bool o of og l oo h oo hoool h “” o “b”. sbql h b oll hbl lg ll obo of l oo oo.

cog h oo –“o” o “o-o” of fl f–hoozo ghfow k h bl b . th hol fo h oo of divided government (D), missing direct democratic

legitimation of the executive (M), absence of provisions for mandatory referendums (A). Fo h o of h ql of h oxl fo presidential

crises (C) civil unrest (U), h w o h x of hol. cog




33

o gg o b of C w k o h b of ql o b pz Lñ.10 cog fo U soh a follow Hohl(2006), whl og o fo h cl a o b o

blh o o l lbo b h hol.11 Fll, ll of party system fragmentation (P) constitutional rigidity (R) oo l ol bl l, whh k o hoozo hhol. Fo h og of P, h ff b of (enp) low hb w ll og o Lko tg (1979) hhhol enp of 4.0, .. h bk-off o bw l- wh o (3.5) l- who o (4.5) (Blol,1968). th lg o h l- who o o lkl o o go. Fo h hoozo of R, i

Ljh’ (1999) x, whh ool g o ol fo-ol wh 1 g ol flxbl 4 g x g. Fo ho xo o ii, h o of o f w x foLjh’ x h hhol ol l 2.12

1. th tabl coo

eh of h b oo h of o wo , .. o of oo h o 27 = 128 obl obo of oo.G h l of l ho, h obo whh logll obl b fo whh o l w ob h olo go. i o l, h b of ob obo, f o ‘logl ’ Qca-olog, o o 93. a h log g hol hoh b l of l ob h logl w o o- o oh o oh wok g Qca(Hk et al., 1995; rg v, 1999; yk, 2003).13

10 aíbl pz Lñá, ao pofo of poll s, d of poll s, uv of

pbgh.11 Kh Hohl, pofo of poll s, d of poll s, u of nw

mxo.12 th b o poll Oo s L a ao (pOsLaa) h

o h b fo h h bl w o ms-a. i o of x -lkbl og l qlv qv wll o o og o fo

h oo l oo. th ho wll l h b o q.13 th of logl h b h l o ofgol hoolog.

th v of h l h f h lg logl lfg o

o h Bool zo o wll l o o oo olo . Howv, h

h lo q, .g. b mkoff (1990) who oo h who l wh wolh ofgo of bl h o o ll x gg g h wllo lookg olo h ll fbl. to h k, ho who o hlo of logl hv hz h o of kg holl fo ho.

th , h h hol ff bw logl fo whh ll o g g oo l (b of l hol xo) logl fo whh fflo g gv oo vl, xl h l (rg so, 2004; rg rhox, 2004).

Gv h oll l h o o ool ho o f o



anita Breuer

34

Of h 35 ob obo, o h o b oo ofgo.sh oo ofgo o wh wh l l o loo l ff l o h oo bl. sl g o how

o oo ofgo h b oo. O g o oll oo ofgo [0] o h oo l. th olo, gg brg (1987), oo ofgo ‘l’ h o fw zbl ofgo xhg fo o o h -ooloh (rhox rg, 2009, . 49). a o fo g, o -xh hol ox of h ol h f oo ofgo o o oo h h b ol o ff hff (rhox rg, 2009).

a lo -xo of h oo , h o of Féb coo

Géz eo, l h h ff h ol o b h x lgl . i 1986, wh cog oo h Fb coo, h l w ogol l h wol how h lgl f fol h o w bogh g h h blg Fb o f ow h ol ffo go h wh f o boo h lg (h of Fb coo wll b o l o iii.3). mwhl, h of Géz h o o h l o. i db 2004 Géz` o o o lo h

s co, whh h l o b b g h, l wh lolo k x lgl . a gowg o g hgo, Géz l of g o o hol f o o bl ol fo h w o (BBc 2005). i h o, h o o o o f o fo h of g, lg h wh o oh oo h o fl h l l hlo.

nowhg h l of h oxl -xo, h oo of ggh f ffg fo ol oo o h ol o ol hoo w . th ll og ol of h eo

og ow oll lll h ooL a ox (pz Wh, 2004),14 h kg lkl h ol l ol f o bo eo.H, lg “h ol of h ” wol h o l h b of l oo, o-lz h xlo of h l, o h o of Qca o h o g of o. i hfoo o xl h g of Géz fo h l h o of Féb.

o whh o b holl fo ho of logl , fo h o of h i hv

o fo h ovv g of g logl gv ofgo.14 aog o Fh (1998) h o vo of h eo oll o b

b o h of fll offl who g h, g h wk of l o h glz oo of eo ol, h fo hv o v oll

ol f of ol h o’ “ ol objv” (Fh, 1998: 65-91).




35

th g ob obo l tbl 2 (a ol h bl lgob oo ofgo g tbl 4 h x).

tbl 2: th tbl

a r p d m c u Oo c id

1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 BOLm1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 BraLl1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 cOLu1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 ecuFb1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 ecud1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 ecual0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 vench2

1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 arGm1arGm21 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 arGr

1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0arGdhBOLroecuH

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 arGKperFj2

1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Bras1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 Bracol1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 BraF

1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0Brac1Brac2

1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0cHialcHiFcHiLg

1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 cOLGcOLs

1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 cOLppertol

1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 cOspecurol

1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 ecuBo

1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 ecuBecumh1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 ecunob

0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 GuacGuapo

0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 Guas0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 GuaLo0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Guaaz0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 GuaB

1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 nicBnicBol

1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 nical0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 parro0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 parW0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 parcb0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 parGo0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 pard1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 perFj3



anita Breuer

36

2. Mmzg Pov Oom

a b fo h h bl, h of bg l [1] o h oogg h h o of f w b l oj

of oo og l , whh hghlgh h hghllz. W ow o o fo h Bool zo. a h oo of h o l h o h ‘if two Boolean expressions differ in only one causal condition

yet produce the same outcome then the causal condition that distinguishes the two expressions can

be considered irrelevant and can be removed to obtain a simpler, combined expression’ (rg,1987, 93). Qca’ zo o h l ofgo o l fol og of fo Bool ggg h FGir w o b fo l oj of fo.

eqo 1: ml fol fo o oo15

reFerendum = p.d.a.r.m..u + p.d.a.r.c. + p.d.a.. + p...r...

eqo 1 b fo o eqo 1b wh h o xl b h l h (l h o b o h o of oo).

eqo 1b

rf = p.d. (a.r.m..u + a.r.c. + a..) + p...r...

[BOLm] [ECUFeb

ecual][BraLlcOLuECUFeb

ecud]

[vench2]

(1) (2) (3) (4)

eqo 1b bg P o h fo. th , hgh ll of party system fragmentation g h b ff oo, whh o b o b loj of ff b o- oo o o o ooo.

3. ivgao of Pov ca

th o of P of H1 h h hoo of FGir L

a h b lol l o h ffl obo of l l (mwg, 1993). How, P o h ol h h

15 i h oo fo Bool lgb h logl oo and Or w “.” “+” vl.

u l of oo, low l b.




37

bogh bo h oo. FGir o ff o of fgo wh l oh fo. i x of o l , h oo wo b o of divided government. Whl o (h o of

m Bol) h w wo o h oll h olllk b of ow h lgl, wo oh (ub colob dá eo) h h logg ol b h o l fo h w lfo fo h ogl lo. th of h h g blog o blh, whh, how, ooll ol ll o of h lgl (Ll’pt Bzl-17.7 , Fbé coo’ psc eo-13.0 , aló’Fra eo-2.4 ).

Term (1) o h o of p m Bol ob, P D

wh A, R, M U . Whl h f wo oo o o ob o xlo of h oo g h h f o o ool lw, hgo of h ll of h l l of h l wo oo,h ofg H2 H5.

i 2002, l sáhz Loz k m h g .af Loz h b l ogol -off, m off -. i sb 2003, Loz’ bkg fo l o xo l g oh us k ol -go o, whh o b kow h Bol

‘g w’. a fo h o, Loz ll h o qll h o.th x of fo lo b h l l o h h of o 50 o(a iol, 2004) Loz’ oll o o oll. i Oob2003, h nol cog h go ll m ff hof h x. alhogh h o of off ol wh h oolglo, m lk ol o hlf foh ol o (B, 2008). moo, o m kg off, h l mol Q o h-oh f whh o wol b hol h fl o l o h o o o o h g .

ag h bkgo h lk of ogol o, m o o loh g of k . i h o h, h ob oo of ffl ho who ooo ogh o bo h o’ h gol lg lg o ook f oh ool g .

Term (2) ob P D wh h A, R C. th of Fb’ o eo,whh o b h , off g llo of h ofgol how f o. eo’ hghl fg

go h b h o h o’ o o 1978. thk ll ffl fo o h h lgl wo-h joq fo h lzo of ool fo. i 1984, h of h solch p (psc), Ló Fb coo, wo h l lo gh -off wh o fo loo ll kow h nol roo Fo(Frn). th g J lgl lo h l hghl fg



anita Breuer

38

og wh enp of 5.8, wh whh h Frn hl o of . af Fb’go, ofl o og qkl o h oho of h Frn whl of h lf jo o fo h oool pog Blok, whh ooll

jo of . Lgl l w o f fo h bggof Fb’ o. a , olg hl fgh o h lglfloo, Oob 1984 wh Fb f o ogz cog’ lo of s co jg h o h pog Blok (LaWr 30 nob 1984).i h fh of h , Fb’ h l o g oo , wll h ffo o blok h olo g h , fh oh -bh hol (Bzk, 2001b). a h 1986 - lo oh,Fb o l h o of h ll-f o b kg of heo ’ og o ook f o ool fo.

H ool q o b bl o fo lgl off.B hg h f o h lgl lo, h follow wo-fol g,g, o h o h, o - h lk of h wo-h lgl joq fo ool hg, o h oh h, lg o lolo of ‘y’ o o h f o o fo o-Fb h- lo (Larr 16 m 1986). How, Fb’ g fl, h loj h f ool wh l g of 58 lf ooo wo ol 60 jo of h - lo.

i h of Fb aló’ o, h oo ob o oh oo - lhogh ff wh ff . i Fb1997, h eo cog o o Bá o h go of l o ow h, aló, ff h of x. thl x-lgl g h h eo oo f h- o o, h b -, ag, ll h l o h ’ off. th offl obj of h oolf ook m 1997 w h o lgz h fait accomplí of Bá’o aló’ o off. How, aló’ go fll

h -Bá o l l hghl ool ool fo o h f who lo o lgl og olh o bo w of h ool g h o of aló’ rl alf Fo , whh hl ol wo h lgl.

Term 3 ob P D wh A. a o of h o of dá eo ub colob, whh o b h , of h h f w b h obo of h h fo, boh o o l w-gg ool fo h f of ooo b hghl fg og.

i m 2002, alo ub, fo b of colob’ Lbl p who h , wo h l lo ll lo. mh of ub’ lol w b o h g o o k oolfo o o kl colob’ oo. th oo g h bolo of log-blh lg of colob lglo h




39

o of ol ok blg . th o oo ool,how, w o h b of lglo b 43 , g h wo hbof cog o o, ll fo l lo (L s 5 ag 2002). Whl

ool colob q ol o lgl jo,h ol -og og16 h lo of ub’ fooj h o lgl o wol h cog fo oh.How, h colob oo o h wh h obl oho h og b g f; f x f oolo ool fo ob jo o boh hb b lb o ol o. shol f h go, ub f fo f ‘g oo olkg’ o cog. ag h bkgoof ub’ ol, ll h ooo of l lo,

hg o o lglo o of ub w wh h lgl.17 ill, h x o g oow cog, g h h f w o-gobl. How ho, h x ol h w fbl o hh h fhogh og bfo h lo of o db 2002 – lb h of kg oo. th f l o b bo w -l (L ssb 2002), follow b g o h b of lglo b 20 of h ogll g 43 . Fll, h x oo o h l fo ogol olo h ooo of l lo.

a o fo h f wo o, b l h h go’g o w o whh colob wol g o h fo b whhh w-ow ool wol oblz ogh of h o k h o l.so b h o’ b l, h go lh g gg colob o o. d obl fl ffo, hg g. i h f o o 25 Oob 2003, ll b o of h 15 oo fll ho of h 6.3 llo o q fo g.

sll 1995, h eo o dá Bllé, who o-lbl

g og h b ool ob b h oool jo cog, lh f o ool fo h oo, og oh, o q h wh h ow o ol og ll fo l lgllo. How, dá’ ol h b l ff b h go’ol l oo l o h h obo o ll ool oh ff og f h oll.

alhogh o b h Bool , h h of h Bzl g-fhl h o of p Ll 2005 o h follow ff fo h f o bo, whh o xl b h hohzfo. Fl, h b of o f w l h ox h f o o ool lw. sol, h f w

16 pool hv o b b boh hb of cog wo ov lglv o.17 i oll lz b Gll og l, 89 of o j h ool.



anita Breuer

40

l o bo o of x-lgl ofl. Q h o, h foj, whh h b b lgl o- blo w ogl bk bh go (LaWr, 25 Oob 2005).

Term 4 gh fo 1 - 3 b h f h o o ob P wh oof go. th o o of Hgo cház vzl, whh o b h , h o h hol b g olol o o ol fo whh h o b o o f ol h ob o o h oo.

af h ll o 1998, 1999 cház g o log h ooo-o og l wh olll ol o bo hogh -ho f. i Jl 2000, cház oo fo lo wo h

wh 59.8 of h ol o. af h ol hl lgl lo, fgo h w l nol abl (an) o ll hgh ll wh enp of 4.04. How, cház’ Ffh rbl mo(mvr) h ll mo ow sol (mas) ow ooll 60 of . s h bgg of h o, chz h ogh o olhh o’ nol t uo cofo (ctv) whh h g bo of o h oj of ‘Bol rolo’. i nob 2000, h an blg lw llowg cház o lw b l ol .rkbl, h f h h fo of h ctv blog o o of h

(LaWr 3 Oob 2000), cház l h og-o f wh f oo o oo h oj. alhogh h f whh w hl db 2000 wh 69.4 -o, o o h xoll o, h hgh bo of 76.5 w ffo h go (th eoo 9 db 2000; el ul 8 db 2000).to wh chz, hg h oo o o h fo oj , ook h k of flg h bllo box, o b w of h og o h o h . cház’ l o o h l b b o h hllg o h ol oll l who g

o xloo of ol h h ol’ fh h olll. How, h fl of h ‘Bol rolo’ o o blgowh h lbl l h ol (Wl, 2001). moo,cház’ fo h o’ o o lo lo o hl h w hh , xl o h go, llfo h us, w g. vzl h foh lg l of ol foh us. G h g gowh , cház h gow gl o fo ol xo o f h hf ll ol ol. af wo, g whh h clo ao h o jo ofoo whcház, h w g h h og Bh ao wol o ogh g h. Bh lo lo wh mxo’ w o, v Fox, rbl fog x h h h u.s. gh o mxo o lbl l o o h ovzl ol (th nw yok t 27 db 2000). ag h bkgo, h




41

f o o fo b q bl; xll, cház qh o fg lf of ol o o o h g o o fho oll ow f h w o fo xo l. ill,

h f h o o fo h o’ lk of o-lg-h fo of lbl o of h oo o - b og -lgo hogh oblzo of h lo h bllo box.External legitimation pressure l lack of output-legitimacy h fo hhol b o f o f o.

4. Mmzg ngav Oom

W ow o o fo h Qca-al o h g of o olo.

s wokg hoh h w fol o xl o o, hBool zo of g oo o x o l gh o loo fo h o-o of f. i, h o of h x o o g , hz (rhox, 2003, 372)h llow fo hoologll fo lo of fo .

eqo 2: ml Fol fo ng Oo

f =

(1) .... + [arGm1, arGm2, ARGKir,PERFuj2, Guaaz, parro] +

(2) .d... + [cOLp, pertol, nical,parW, pard]

(3) .d.r.a..c + [ ARGRua, ecuBo]

(4) d.r.a..c.u + [ ARGRua, ecuB, ecumh]

(5) .d.r.a.. + [arGdh, BOLro, ecuH,cOsp, ecurol]

(6) ...a.. + [arGK, PERFuj2, Bras]

(7) ..a... + [ ARGKir, PERFuj2, cHial, cHiF,cHiLgo]

(8) ...a.. + [ ARGKir, PERFuj2, cOLG, cOLs]

(9) p.d..a.. + [Bracol, Brac1, Brac2]

(10) p.d.a.m.. + [BraF, ecunob]

(11) ..r... + [Guac, Guapo, Guaaz]

(12) p.d.r... + [Guas, GuaB]

(13) .d..m.c.u + [GuaLo, parGo]

(14) ....c.u + [NICBar, NICBol, parcb]

(15) ...a.c.u [NICBar, NICBol, perFj3]



anita Breuer

42

Bool zo obl l olx. i h l foll eqo 2, h 35 ll ob ofgo bg oo [0] o l ob xo og of 15 . th qo ll

how h h l o of of oll ho fllo. ioh wo, f f obo of oo ob o h o of FGir,w o oll h h obo wll b b wh FGir o o. sx g xl b (1) whh ll of h fof hohll l fo o o b o w l , .. h h o o h fol wokg hoh o o h l ob fo h l of o h g o.t (9), (10), (12), b o, g zzl f o o hl fo Bool zo of o , g h h oo P

w oll ob wh D, whh w f h o oo obo fo o o of FGir. H, h o o b h oo whh hol h h holg of FGir g. a lo go of h hfo o o whh h w f oo, whh ob FGir,o f oll o w bl o lo l g o o hl ollo.

5. ivgao of sld ngav ca

to h o lgh o h f oll oo ob o FGir,wo o o w ho g h msdO (o l, ffoo) o lo b d m Bg shlo (1994) hqfo lo. to h o, h Bool bw o g of o – .. h b of oo wh ff l fo h woo – w o l h x how tbl 3.

th ll of l fo h o l wh ff oo (mdsO) o

olo 1, .. h ff o ol o bl. th l o 22 .to fh ow ow h lo, i l o h l of h bo Qca l. il wo g whh o b h l Bool (11) (12)of eqo 2 (h o of collo mllo Bzl so Gl) o h g h o l o (h o of ub colob Fb eo).




43

tbl 3: mx of Bool d

BOLm BraLl cOLu ecual ecud ecuFb vench2

arGm1 4 3 4 4 2 3 2

arGm2 4 3 4 4 2 3 2

arGr 3 4 3 3 3 2 5

arGdh 2 3 4 2 2 3 4

arGK 5 2 3 5 3 4 3

Bras 4 3 4 4 4 5 4

Bracol 3 2 1 3 3 2 5

BraF 2 1 2 2 2 3 4

Brac1 2 1 2 4 2 3 4

Brac2 2 1 2 4 2 3 4cHial 4 1 2 4 2 3 2

cHiF 4 1 2 4 2 3 2

cHiLg 4 1 2 4 2 3 2

cOLG 6 3 2 4 4 3 4

cOLs 6 3 2 4 4 3 4

cOLp 4 1 2 4 2 3 4

cOsp 3 2 3 3 1 2 3

ecuH 2 3 4 2 2 3 4

ecurol 3 2 3 3 1 2 3ecuB 2 3 2 2 2 1 4

ecumh 2 3 2 2 2 1 4

ecunob 1 2 3 1 1 2 3

ecuBo 1 3 2 2 2 1 4

Guac 4 5 6 6 4 5 2

Guaaz 5 4 5 5 3 4 1

Guapo 4 5 6 6 4 5 2

Guas 4 3 2 2 2 1 2GuaLo 4 5 4 2 4 3 4

GuaB 3 2 3 3 1 2 1

nicB 5 4 3 5 5 4 5

nicBol 5 4 3 5 5 4 5

nicaL 3 2 3 5 3 4 5

parro 6 3 4 6 4 5 2

parW 4 3 4 6 4 5 4

parcb 6 5 4 6 6 5 4

parGo 5 4 3 3 5 4 5pard 5 2 3 5 3 4 3

perFj2 5 2 3 5 3 4 3

perFj3 4 5 4 4 6 5 6

pertol 4 1 2 4 2 3 4



anita Breuer

44

) ub (colob, 2002 - 2006) collo mllo (Bzl, 1990 - 1992)

sl o h colob o ub, 1989 Fo collo mllo l foh Bzl jo fo do mo p (pmdB) fo h p

of nol roo (prn) fo h o of h og lo. Bk b wlh o h O Globo, collo lh g h h o o of ol oll hl h o f h l Ll sl of h Wok p (pt) wh 53 h -off. Bzl lh b oll lg b hgh fgo ll o of o go. th l fo collo who prnooll ol 8.2 of h hb of . i o o joo, h fo lbl-o b lg f , whl h lof h pt pdt l fog lf ooo blo (th nw yok t 15mh 1990). Bzl’ lol bl collo obl ;lgl lo w hl fo Oob 1990 b ag 1990, ll w x o h jo h ooo o o o h gh of hflg (LaWr 1 mh 1990). u h , collo o o h ow o o l h bo o-lbl fo l. th wo h og, wh lglo olg bo h ’ how of -wlg h o ooo. i Oob 1990, h pmdB boh go olo jo h ooo (ngo, 2004). polll ol,

collo’ go gl l o h bo of ok o o lgl o (mwg, 1997). dg 1991, h ooo o hwgo of h ool collo ool lo h bl o l ol. i l1991, h hogh lo g blg ool foh obo of h ozo l oo 44 o ool fo–bb ‘h bg oj’ o ‘emendao’– o o Bzl’ gobl (Larr 19sb 1991). dff fo h colob coo, h Bzl cooo o ol h obl of x- f o ho ool o b h gh o gg f

o g o cog (Hg tbl, 2002). ulk h colob o,collo w h of o go gl o of h emendao wh h hollgl o w o h h oj oo go k cog. a h , h w g h ool o o o collo w h kg.aog o o oo of h 1988 oo o 7 sb 1993, oh o o h of go (l o l) o b blh Bzl hogh o f. i nob 1991, 11 jo o fo nol pl mo (mnp) ogg h l oo g o o h f o mh 1992. uo h ’ ol of h

o ool f g, collo b g h j ,pho, o h who g blokg h fl olwhh fll h o ho of h h-ffh q fo g. (LaWr 21 nob1991). a h bgg of 1992, collo o blz h oo b ggg hb-hfflg. How, h o g o bo h ogol o




45

h psdB j h o o jo h go, h of h w bb fo h l o h. i m 1992, collo w of lg o-w oo wok cog jo o o

g h . i fl o h ohow, collo o g o lo fo h f, b h lg kll h wo o bl gol o l g fo h ol. O 29 sb 1992, h hb of o collo’ h wh 441 o 38 o, whl o h 100,000 olo g h fo of og (pz Lñá).

th oo bw collo’ o h o of ub’o colob l g gh wh g o fo h h o of FGir. i boh , who h o lol o o l bo ool fo oj. O off, h

fo hl h ffl oo of bg o who fo lw bg ob b oool jo hghl fg og, boh ofl wh og o h lo of oj gw o . How, h wo ffl o h o. Whl ub o o hf, hog h h ol bkg wol bl h o lz l of h fo oj (B, 2008b), collo ogh o l h oj b ggg l h lglg b , og, b-hfflg. ag h bkgo, wh fo h Bzl p fo

log h g h colob o? th w o l log- ol fo, l h constitutional provisions regulating the use of

referendums Bzl. Whl h colb coo ll blh fo h of h x l o o ool og, h o h Bzl, wh h f xll f ogol b h oo. mwhl, h bo of Bzllglo o o collo b of f h – ol o hhohz ff-hgh ll of party system fragmentation b ob hh obo o h o of FGir f h ho o gg f

wh og, .. oll o.

b) Fb (eo, 1984-1988) . so (Gl, 1991-1993)

i 1985, Jog so el, fo l gll ch, fo hsol ao mo p (mas). a h , Gl’ flg w ofo b of go g h x -ghwhl ll l xlg h lf fo oll o. thk o h oof o-lgo, so’ lfo oo fo lf h h lol off hwo h 1990/91 l h off lo. th ol hl lgllo h l o folz cog wh enp of 4.6 whh so’ masol 18 of h 116 , h fog h o fo olo go whh ch do p (dcG) h o-o uo of h nolc (ucn). dg h g, so h lg o l lk wh



anita Breuer

46

h gll o lw o o h o f h of l w.i al 1991, h o ook goo wh h Gl gllfo rolo nol u (urnG). How f o l og,

m 1993, goo wh h urnG w o oo gghow o l h f, g blow o so’ g, w of ho o h o l g h g (pz Lñá). a h , so’ g oll olo h o fll bk o llgl offo og b o o ob o fo h o-lbl blzo (pz Lñá). th fo of h dcG fo h go olo fh wkh oo. p-g h o of o fo h h o loo hg, o 25 m, so g lf-o, g o of hoo, olg cog h s co og h lo o

o bl wol b hl wh 60 . How, h Gl selol tbl o l h ll fo lo ool(Larr 17 J 1993). O 30 m, so o h fl wh oll bo , whh h g ‘oll l o of o’o fol o ool fo f o ool fo, lggl fo ogol lo o b hl l . How, h oooj h o lgz h o, h s elol tbl, whhlo hol h o ho o f o Gl. a oloo o , h l h h o h o w, lg

so ll ho b o fl o xl.th oo bw h o of so wh o l o, h o of Fb eo, gg h w log- olfo whh h o so’ . Boh h h o of o-ho ll k b -ho f of h l whh l blh l go boh ho h bkgo fo ofl lo bw hghl fg og oll l o . O ofl h l o , boh

o -lgz h hk o hogh f,how, wh ffg . i eo, wh h oo fl h o FGir ll o , Fb ll f b w hool j b h lo. mwhl, so’ l o lo h gw fol b h f h h f o Gl bj o electoral judicial review, x b h s elol tbl, whh h hozo.

iV. cOncLusiOns

th o o fll h g o kowlg o h of f b fogo h of FGir L a’ l . Bool l o ho b o h o fo f o. sbl,h l how h f o olx hoo h o




47

o l lf o oo-l xlo. co o h o w hf l bo of ol, o-ollh, h b how h h hoo lol lk o fo whh h

log b l fo h bl of l . th wokg hoho log- ho- fo w fo h l o h ‘l of l’ h gf o of oo o o h oof f g h ll o obo of h hohz fow fo. How, wo - fo o o h ll l: fgo follow b go. th h f l h o b l o g o bk o of lok, whh ll o h ‘difficult combination’ of l l (mwg, 1993). i h g, h o

o hol f b oll lz b l ho- folk l , h of m’ o Bol, o l ll b h of Fb aló eo.

aoh g l h, oo o h hohz ff, hgh ll of fgo lo ob h o of FGir f h ho o ll f o og. a how b h l of h Bzl collo mllo o, h o fgo l flo h h lgl jo whh q fo h ooo of f.

F h o f o hol h lo h o h ff h lgl x f.

mwhl, olo o hoh gg h log- ol foob o f o l l-. alhogh Bool lf ool g h b of oo fo o fo ool fo o- fo h ofgol h lgo f, o of h l o b h Bool ol l oobo h l h (m Bol, Ll Bzl, cház vzl) h l f o o ool

lw. i, log- ol fo o l o ol hobstruction of f. th oo of l g wh h ol o l h h g , who l ol ol o h o h o w ffl h fo og o h f ool b h fool oo glg h lo of h ool. th fg holh o ol lo fo ho o bo h ol fo lb h FGir h h k b obl h bo ool g.

s h look ol h f x of L a’ l, o k olo bo h wolw hoo. dobll,h lo of h ol bo o l wol qbl ofo h h o h ff log whh h of x lgl o l. nowhg, h hol



anita Breuer

48

hoologl oh lo h ol o ffl g o foh of f o h -l of cl e eo, of whh o f oo g h o

o o.

reFerences

al, d. (2000) ‚th pol of colo Foo sl ml-p pldo. th c of ug, 1989-1999’, Party Politics, 6(3), 259-283.

al, d. (2005) ‘do l o o: aolgo gblo ?’, Política y gobierno 7(2), 203-232.

al, d. (2007). ‘ Myths and Facts about the Use of Direct Democracy Worldwide’. p

h 2007 ecpr Jo so. Wokho o rf i, Hlk, 7-12 m.a iol (2004) ‘ro Bol’ [ol], albl fo: h://wb..og/o2004/bol--g

ak, dg, Ko, L. (2002). ‚cool a mho h do of hWol‘. p Xiiih no poll s cog,albog, dk, 15-17 ag.

Bb, Bj. (1984) Strong Democracy: Participatory Politics for a New Age. Bkl: u of clfo p.

Bzk, mo. (2001) ‘ro b colo? th r of d do L a’,Latin American Politics and Society, 43(3), 37-60.

Bzk, m. (2001b) ‘sqg Off: ex Lgl eo’, r. elg (.), Divided

Government in Comparative Perspective. Oxfo sholh Ol moogh, . 40-63.

B, rob. (2003) ‘th p of nool p? Fo Fjo o tolo’, Third WorldQuarterly, 24(6), 1161-1178.

BBc 2005. US offers to ease Ecuador crisis. i BBc w, 8 al 2005. r fo h://w.bb.o.k/2/h//4423635., 16 db 2008.

Blol, J. (1968) ‘p s p of Go W do’, Canadian

Journal of Political Science, 1(2), 441-455.B, a. (2008) ‘th pobl rlo bw d do aobl L

a: e fo h Bol c’, Bulletin of Latin American Research, 27 (1), 1-23.B, a. (2008b) polkg b rf pl s: e fo h Bol

colob c’, Latin American Politics and Society, 50 (4), 59-89.

Bl, d, r, a. (1994) Referendums around the World. Whgo: mll.chbb, Joé aoo. (2002) ‘pl do pfo’, a. rol (.), The

Architecture of Democracy. Constitutional Design, Conflict Management, and Democracy. Oxfo: Oxfou p, . 105-140.

chbb, Joé aoo. (2002b) ‘mo Go, dlok so, h sl of pldo’, Comparative Political Studies, 35(3), 284-312.

coo l s, s, o 2004.cox, G, Kll, sl. (1991) ‘colo’, G cox (.), The politics of divided government.

Bol, coloo: Ww p, . 239-262.d m, Gèl, Bg shlo, dk. (1994) ‚cog poll s: eblhg sl

dl‘, European Journal of Political Research, 26(2), 193-219.el ul, c, o 2000.el nol, c, o 2000.elg, rob. (2001) ‘Wh d Go?’, r. elg (.), Divided Government in Comparative

Perspective. Oxfo: Oxfo u p, . 2-20.ell, s. (2003) ‘th og of h ol of Hgo cház albo Fjo’,

Journal of Latin American Studies, 35(1), 139-162.




49

Fh sl. 1998. The Armed Forces and Democracy in Latin America. Blo: Joh Hok u pFkl, mk, ejk, c., mh, mhl. (1995) ‚rf Oo t

Go‘, West European Politics. 18, 101-117.Gb, elbh r. (1996) ‘Lgl ro o h th of pol i’, American Journal of

Political Science, 40(1), 99-128.Go, Jl. 1999. ‘colol ro cll roo: Flo el u s tl

rl’. The Journal of Historical Sociology, 12 (4), 337-368.Go, Jl. 2008. a e h pol of mg. el poll cl h phl

po ro g u.s. colol. dk u p.Hk, ax, m, Jo, tg, nh n. (1995) ‘th pog. eg of h sol

s s’, American Sociological Review, 60, 329-349.Hohl, Kh. (2006) ‘rhkg pl: chllg pl Fll soha’,

Comparative Politics, 38(4), 401-418.Hohl, K.: d s o ‘po pl’, poll s d, u

of nw mxo.Hg, so., s, pl. (2000) ‘rf o eo igo’, Comparative Political

Studies. 33(1): 3-36.Hg, so, tbl, Gog. (2002) ‘vo pl rf o h Wol’, Journal of

Theoretical Politics, 16(3), 321-356. Jo, mk p. (1995), Electoral Laws and the Survival of Presidential Democracies, no d, ind: u

of no d p.L, a., Bäl, mhl. (1999), ‘do d do m fo poll p? a

el t h sw co’, Party Politics. 5(3): . 283-3.L, rh (1992) ‘poll cl. rl cgo o Gl tho?’ co poll s,

25 (3), 362-387L rzó, L pz, o 2004.L s, Bogoá, o 2002-2003.L a Wkl ro (LaWr), o .L a rgol ro (Larr), o .L, d. (1995) ‘chgg F of pol L a: mk, mko, eg

F’, Latin American Research Review, 39(3), 2004.Ld, Lw. (2003) The Politics of Direct Democracy. tooo: Bow p.Ljh, a. (1984) Democracies. pterns of Majoritarian and Consensus Government in. Twenty-One

Countries, nw H/Loo.Ljh, a. (1999) Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in Thirty Six Countries.

nw H, ct: yl u p.Lz, J. (1990) ‘th pl of pl’, Journal of Democracy, 1(1), 51-69.Lz, J, s, alf. (.) (1978) The breakdown of democratic regimes. Blo Loo: Joh

Hok u p.mk, Joh L. (1965). c oo, American Philosophical Quarterly 2 (4), 245–264.mho, J, Goz, G. (2004) ‘th pobl pl: choog ng c

co rh’, American Political Science Review, 98(4), 653-669.mho, J. (2007) ‘Ql mhoolog co pol’,Comparative Political Studies,

40 (2), 122-144.mwg, so. (1993) ‘pl, m, do. th dffl cobo’,

Comparative Political Studies, 26(2), 198-228.mwg, so. (1997) ‘ml, rob Fl, pl Bzl’, s.mwg mhw sob shg (.), Presidentialism and Democracy in Latin America.cbg, . 55-109.

mwg, so, shg, mhw. (1997) ‘pl do L a:rhkg h t of h db’, so mwg mhw. shg sobg (.),Presidentialism and Democracy in Latin America. cbg, . 12-53.



anita Breuer

50

mog, ré. (2002) ‘O nool: th ro o plb aho’ p th c of do ro h a, u of no d,13-14 m.

mkoff, Joh (1990), ‘a co mho: rflo o chl rg’ ioo co

al’, Historical Methods, 23, 4, 177-181.mco, Jf. (1999) ‘chz h e of “ph” vzl’. Journal of Democracy. 10 (3),

64-77.mol, L. (2001) ‘th r of Go-i rf cool do’,

mhw mloh, aw pk (.), Referendum Democracy. Hol: plg,. 47-63.

mog, J. (2007) ‘ph g h coll of vzl’ p’. Latin American Research

Review 42 (1), 78-98.mk, Go L. (2004) ‘tool fo Ql rh’, H e. B d coll (.),Rethinking

Social Inquiry. Diverse Tools, Shared Standards. Oxfo: row Llfl, . 105-121.

ngo, Gbl L. (2004) ‘Go c pol mkg b d L a’,Comparative Political Studies, 37(5), 531-562.O’doll, Gllo. (1996) ‘dlg do’, L do m pl (.), The

Global Resurgence of Democracy. Blo: th Joh Hok u p, ol. 5, . 55-69.polo, y. (2001), ‘How do d do m? th i of rf vo

o pol pol-mkg’, West European Politics. 24(2), . 35-58.pz Olo, Wh ro. 2004. Civil-Military Relations in Latin America: A Case Study of Public

Opinion in Ecuador and Paraguay. p al g of th mw poll saoo, chgo, 15 al 2004.

péz-Lñá, abl.: Ql d s o pl c L a. d of polls, u of pbgh.

péz-Lñá, abl. (2003) ‘pg o gobbl. H o lo?’,Latin American Research Review, 38(3), 150-164.

phl, Gog. (1998) ‘th nw pol, pl mk-O rfo shsoh a’, Government and Opposition, 33(1), 81-97.

po, pl skool, th. (2002) ‘Hol iol coo poll s’, i Kzlo Hl. ml (.), Political Science: The State of the Discipline. nw yok:noo co, . 693-721.

rg, chl. (1987) The Comparative Method. Bkl: u of clfo p.rg, chl. (1992) ‘ioo: c of “Wh ?”’, chl rg How Bk

(.), What is a Case? Exploring the Foundations of Social Inquiry. cbg: cbg u

p, . 1-18.rg, chl., rhox, Boî . (2004). ‘Ql co al (Qca): s of h a

po.’ Qualitative Methods: Newsletter of the American Political Science Association Organized

Section on Qualitative Methods, 2(2), 3-13.rg chl., so, Joh. (2004) Bw colx po: L d,

cofl c, co al. i sb Ko mhl mkbg (e)vglh polkwhf. Wb: vs vlg fü sozlwhf.

rh, Go. (2007) ‚th pol of rf il. n u, y Kow soufl d‘, p h ecpr Jo so of Wokho Hlk. 7-12 m.

rg, K, v, Jol. (1999) ‚poll d, poll Oo: exlg h

dffl s of Lf-Lb p‘, Social Forces, 78(2), 491-510.rhox Boî, rg chl, . 2009. Configurational Comparative Methods: Qualitative Comparative

Analysis (QCA) and Related Techniques. tho Ok: sg.sh, phl. (2000) How to Democratize the Euro-Polity and Why Bother. nw yok: row

Llfl.sälä, mj. (2006) ‘nol rf eo do. r dlo’, Direct

Democracy and Representation (Special Issue), 42(1), 13-23.




51

sälä, mj. (2006) ‘O h obl of obl obl’, European Journal of Political

Research, 45, 699-721.sk, mkk. (1993) Bringing in the People-A Comparison of Constitutional Forms and Practices of the

Referendum. doh: m njhof.

th eoo, o .th nw yok t, o .tolb, col, Ho, ro. (1996), ‘r/eh d do: a al of

clfo’ illgl igo i’, The Journal of Politics, 58(3), . 806-818.v co, do L (2000). The Friendly Liquidation of the Past: The Politics of Diversity in Latin America .

pbgh: u of pbgh pv, a, Fg, mk. (2006), ‚i, f, h x ‘, Journal of European

Public Policy, 13(1), . 89-112.Wl, K. (2001) ‘Wll cház Lo h L?’, Foreign Affairs (nob/db 2001),Wl, K. (2003) ‘nool nolbl L a: How mh aff?’,Third

World Quarterly, 24(6), 1095-1115.yk, sk. (2003): tg Hoh wh Qca: alo o h nl ph-O pol 9 Oecd co. p h ecpr cof mbg 18. - 21. sb 2003.[el] ://www.x..k/ecpr/v/glof/bg//6/5/

yk.f.



anita Breuer

52

axtbl 4: th tbl ilg Logl r coo cofgo

coo Oo

ow a r p d m c u reF

1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1

2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1

3 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1

4 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 c 2

5 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1

6 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1

7 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1

8 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2

9 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1

10 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 3

11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2

12 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

13 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1

14 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1

15 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 2

16 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 317 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2

18 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2

19 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2

20 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1

21 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 2

22 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1

23 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2

24 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1

25 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1

26 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

27 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1

28 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2

29 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1

30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

31 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1

32 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1

33 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 134 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1

35 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1

36 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 – 0

Continúa en página suguiente




53

coo Oo


37 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 – 0

38 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 – 0

39 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 – 0

40 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 – 0

41 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 – 0

42 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 – 0

43 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 – 0

44 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 – 0

45 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 – 0

46 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 – 0

47 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 – 0

48 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 – 0

49 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 – 0

50 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 – 0

51 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 – 0

52 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 – 053 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 – 0

54 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 – 0

55 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 – 0

56 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 – 0

57 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 – 0

58 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 – 0

59 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 – 0

60 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 – 061 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 – 0

62 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 – 0

63 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 – 0

64 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 – 0

65 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 – 0

66 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 – 0

67 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 – 0

68 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 – 0

69 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 – 0

70 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 – 0

71 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 – 0

72 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 – 0


Continuación tabla 4



anita Breuer

54

coo Oo


73 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 – 0

74 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 – 0

75 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 – 0

76 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 – 0

77 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 – 0

78 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 – 0

79 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 – 0

80 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 – 0

81 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 – 0

82 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 – 0

83 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 – 0

84 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 – 0

85 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 – 0

86 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 – 0

87 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 – 0

88 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 – 089 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 – 0

90 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 – 0

91 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 – 0

92 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 – 0

93 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 – 0

94 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 – 0

95 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 – 0

96 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 – 097 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 – 0

98 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 – 0

99 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 – 0

100 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 – 0

101 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 – 0

102 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 – 0

103 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 – 0

104 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 – 0

105 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 – 0106 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 – 0

107 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 – 0

108 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 – 0






55

coo Oo


109 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 – 0

110 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 – 0

111 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 – 0

112 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 – 0

113 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 – 0

114 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 – 0

115 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 – 0

116 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 – 0

117 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 – 0

118 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 – 0

119 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 – 0

120 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 – 0

121 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 – 0

122 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 – 0

123 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 – 0

124 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 – 0125 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 – 0

126 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 – 0

127 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 – 0

128 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 – 0

D. Ania Beue Fz th hol h d of cov pol, uvof colog, G.[e-l: .b@-kol.]


anita breuer 2099

Documents