”Health of Nations”: Civilization Differences and Human Development in Post-Socialist CountriesAnna KrasilovaGordey YastrebovOvsey Shkaratan

National Research University – Higher School of Economics

MoscowRussia

Goals of development: a shift in paradigms• Economocentrism and economic determinism

▫ GDP per cap., economic growth, etc.▫ economic ‘variables’ as major determinants and

attributes of development

• Modernization theory (Rostow, Parsons, etc.)▫ Market economy, private ownership and democracy

as basic foundations of capitalism▫ Universalist ideologies of catch-up development

• Sustainable development theories▫ UNDP ideology, Human Development Index▫ Gross National Happiness, Happy Life-Expectancy

(Veenhoven), etc.

• Civilization theories (Toynbee, Spengler, Huntington, Danilevskiy, etc.)

IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing 2

Basic aspects of human development

SUSTAINABILITY – a society’s capacity for 1) demographic reproduction and 2) resisting the potentially harmful physical, social and mental pathologies

IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing 3

Quality of human development: measurement indicators•Physical

▫life expectancy▫diseases prevalence (cancer, diabetes etc.)

•Social▫trust▫crime rates▫suicide rate etc.

•Mental▫lifelong learning▫addictions etc.

IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing 4

Empirics•31 countries: Europe and CIS

•Data sources: World Bank, UNODC, WHO, ESS, Eurostat (2008)

•24 indicators on physical, social and mental aspects of human development

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Results (1): group meansIEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing 6

Results (1): interpretationgeneral pattern of switching priorities in development:

social physical mental

3 groups of countries with different highlights in development (mental for the most advanced and physical for the most underdeveloped)

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1,200,900,600,300,00-0,30-0,60Natural Population Growth 2005-2010 (UNDP Statistics)

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80

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Socie

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(Hum

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Turkey

Ukraine

Russia

KazakhstanBelarus

Slovenia

Slovakia

Romania

Poland

LithuaniaLatviaHungary

Estonia

Czech RepublicBulgaria

Portugal

ItalyGreece

Croatia

SwitzerlandNetherlandsGermany

FranceAustria

SwedenNorway

Denmark

Islamic WorldCISPost-SocialistSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern EuropeCountry group

Results (2):quality & quantityIEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing 8

100806040200Societal Health Index (Human Development)

100

80

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40

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0

UN HD

I (rela

tive s

cale

[0-10

0])

TurkeyUkraine

RussiaKazakhstan

Belarus

SloveniaSlovakia

Romania

PolandLithuania

Latvia

HungaryEstonia

Czech Republic

Bulgaria

Spain

Portugal

Italy Greece

Croatia

Switzerland

NetherlandsGermanyFranceBelgium

Austria

Sweden

Norway

FinlandDenmark Islamic World

CISPost-SocialistSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe

Country group

Comparison with HDI (integral)‘underperformers’ Russia and

Slovakia – apparently ‘overestimated’ according to UN measures

Turkey, Bulgaria, Poland – far more favourable according to our measures

IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing 9

100806040200SHI: phisical aspect of human development

100

80

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40

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UN HD

I (rela

tive s

cale

[0-10

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TurkeyUkraine RussiaKazakhstan

Belarus

SloveniaSlovakia

Romania

PolandLithuania

Latvia

HungaryEstonia

Czech Republic

Bulgaria

Spain

Portugal

Italy Greece

Croatia

Switzerland

NetherlandsGermany

FranceBelgium

Austria

Sweden

Norway

FinlandDenmark

Islamic WorldCISPost-SocialistSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe

Country group

Comparison with HDI (physical)‘underperformers’

IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing 10

physical

100806040200SHI: social aspect of human development

100

80

60

40

20

0

UN HD

I (rela

tive s

cale

[0-10

0])

TurkeyUkraine

RussiaKazakhstan

Belarus

Slovenia

Slovakia

Romania

PolandLithuania

LatviaHungaryEstonia

Czech Republic

Bulgaria

Spain

Portugal

Italy Greece

Croatia

Switzerland

NetherlandsGermany

FranceBelgium

Austria

Sweden

Norway

FinlandDenmark

Islamic WorldCISPost-SocialistSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe

Country group

Comparison with HDI (social)‘underperformers’

IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing 11

100806040200SHI: mental aspect of human development

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80

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40

20

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UN HD

I (rela

tive s

cale

[0-10

0])

TurkeyUkraine

RussiaKazakhstan

Belarus

SloveniaSlovakia

Romania

Poland

LithuaniaLatvia

HungaryEstonia

Czech Republic

Bulgaria

Spain

Portugal

ItalyGreece

Croatia

Switzerland

NetherlandsGermany

FranceBelgiumAustria

Sweden

Norway

FinlandDenmarkIslamic WorldCISPost-SocialistSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe

Country group

Comparison with HDI (mental)‘underperformers’

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60,050,040,030,020,010,00,0GDP per capita 2010 (PPP, CIA Factbook, $ thousand)

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Socie

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(Hum

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Turkey

Ukraine

Russia

Kazakhstan

Belarus

Slovenia

Slovakia

Romania

Poland

LithuaniaLatvia

HungaryEstoniaCzech RepublicBulgaria

SpainPortugalItaly

Greece

Croatia

Switzerland

NetherlandsGermany

France

Belgium

Austria

Sweden NorwayFinland

Denmark

Fit line for TotalIslamic WorldCISPost-SocialistSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe

Country group

R Sq Quadratic =0,688

SHI Human Development & GDP

‘underperformers’

Russia – way out where it should be according to its economic developmentPoland, Romania, Turkey – most successful cases given their economic well-beinghigh variance among the Western developed countries

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10,09,08,07,06,05,04,03,0EIU Democracy Index 2010 (Economist Intelligence Unit)

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60

40

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Socie

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(Hum

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Turkey

Ukraine

Russia

Kazakhstan

Belarus

Slovenia

SlovakiaRomania

Poland

LatviaHungary

EstoniaCzech RepublicBulgaria

SpainPortugal

ItalyGreece

Croatia

Switzerland

NetherlandsGermany

France

Belgium

Austria

Sweden

NorwayFinland

Denmark

Islamic WorldCISPost-SocialistSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe

Country group

SHI Human Development & Democracy

No direct relationship between democracy and human development for the former Soviet republics – Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine (apart from CEEs, such as Latvia, Slovakia, Estonia, Poland, etc.)

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Civilizational approach15IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing

Civilization European Eurasianproperty relations private property ‘power-property’

character of economy market exchange distributive

regime democracy authoritarianism

values individualistic collectivism

An extent of realization of a human capacity– or human development level – in different societies, is a function of a conformity degree of a particular configuration (social, economic and political) of a society to its civilization, or cultural basis.

Conclusions• The universal imperative for success in societal development is

human being itself and, particularly, its physical, social and mental well-being

 • 3 distinct groups of countries according to their state of

sustainability:▫ high-risk societies (human regress aggravated by systemic

depopulation, i.e. Russia, Ukraine, Belarus)▫ extensively sustainable societies (moderate human development, yet

extended demographic reproduction, i.e. Kazakhstan, Turkey)▫ intensively sustainable societies (high human development, yet stable

demographic reproduction, i.e. Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Netherlands, etc.)

• A certain set of political, economic and social intuitions can either be appropriate (like in most CEE countries) or inappropriate (Russia and CIS) to population’s particular attitudes, values and behavior models, or civilizational belonging. The latter case results in a loss of sustainability and social decay.

IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing 16

Thank you for your attention!

List of variablesVariable Aspect

of HDYear Data

sourceDisability-adjusted life expectancy, years phys. 2007 WHOTuberculosis, gonococcal infection, viral hepatitis B, HIV incidence, per 100000

phys. 2004-2006 WHO

SDR, cardiovascular diseases, age 0-64, per 100000 phys. 2004-2006 WHODiabetes prevalence, % of population phys. 2004-2006 WHOCancer incidence women, per 100000 phys. 2008 GLOBOCAN

Intentional homicide, per 100000 soc. 2007-2008 UNODCDeaths due to work-related accidents, per 100000 soc. 2006-2008 WHOPersons killed or injured in road traffic accidents, per 100000 soc. 2008 WHOSDR, suicide and self-inflicted injury, all ages, per 100000 soc. 2008 WHOCrude divorce rate soc. 2006-2008 EurostatAbortions, per 1000 live births soc. 2008 WHOInterpersonal trust level soc. 2004-2008 ESSDaily smokers, % of population, age >15 ment. 2001-2008 WHOPopulation, age 25-64, participating in education and training, %

ment. 2009 Eurostat

Wikipedia visitors / internet user ment. 2010 WikipediaCannabis, opiates, cocaine, amphetamines prevelance, % of population

ment. 2003-2008 UNODC

Alcohol consumption, litres per person/year and Patterns of drinking score

ment. 2003-2005 WHO

Natural population growth quantity 2005-2010 UNDP

Appendix 1

Data aggregation1. Inverting 2. Normalizing

3. Aggregating

where Xi – i variable, Yj – normalized variable, wj – weight, Am – m aspect of human development, SHI – Societal Health Index

Appendix 2

SHI rating of countries

Country Integral SHI Country Integral SHI

1. Sweden 0,00 17. Portugal 38,082. Switzerland 0,77 18. Turkey 43,47

3. Norway 3,83 19.Czech Republic 45,59

4. Finland 5,51 20. Croatia 48,275. Netherlands 14,40 21. Bulgaria 48,456. Germany 16,95 22. Romania 50,177. Greece 17,30 23. Estonia 54,058. Denmark 17,43 24. Slovakia 56,48

9.United Kingdom 24,46 25. Hungary 57,43

10.Poland 25,66 26. Lithuania 62,9611.France 26,84 27. Latvia 64,2212.Italy 29,25 28. Belarus 74,5713.Austria 32,22 29. Ukraine 80,0214.Spain 33,33 30. Kazakhstan 89,5715.Slovenia 34,55 31. Russia 100,0016.Belgium 37,16

Appendix 3.1

SHI components correlation coefficients

Appendix 3.2

Physical Social Mental Integral

Physical 1 0,776 0,621 0,887

Social 1 0,665 0,908

Mental 1 0,872Integral 1

SHI Human Development & Corruption

10,08,06,04,02,0Corruption Perceptions Index 2009 (Transparency

International)

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Turkey

Ukraine

Russia

Kazakhstan

Belarus

Slovenia

SlovakiaRomania

Poland

LithuaniaLatviaHungary

Estonia

Czech RepublicBulgaria

Spain

Portugal

Italy

Greece

Croatia

SwitzerlandNetherlands

GermanyFrance

Belgium

Austria

SwedenNorway

Finland

Denmark

Fit line for TotalIslamic WorldCISPost-SocialistSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe

Country group

R Sq Linear = 0,697

Appendix 3