Anne FairbrotherAnne Fairbrother

Branch ChiefBranch Chief

August 2003August 2003

Anne FairbrotherAnne Fairbrother

Branch ChiefBranch Chief

August 2003August 2003

Risk Characterization Risk Characterization BranchBranch

Risk Characterization Risk Characterization BranchBranch

Branch MissionBranch Mission

Determine the effects Determine the effects of anthropogenic of anthropogenic stressors such as stressors such as pesticidespesticides on on plantplant communities and communities and wildlifewildlife populations, populations, and on the structure, and on the structure, function and quality function and quality of terrestrial of terrestrial habitats habitats that support wildlifethat support wildlife

PesticidesPesticides Chemical herbicidesChemical herbicides GM cropsGM crops

Terrestrial HabitatsTerrestrial Habitats Spatially explicit models for Spatially explicit models for

wildlife populationswildlife populations• Chemical insecticidesChemical insecticides

• Other stressorsOther stressors

Terrestrial habitat and ecosystem Terrestrial habitat and ecosystem modelsmodels

Pesticides & Pesticides & Terrestrial Terrestrial HabitatsHabitats

Pesticide ProjectPesticide Project

1. Assess Risks From Transgenic Crops

Design ecological, molecular effects studies

Determine Effects of Chemical

Herbicides on Terrestrial

Plants

Develop Regional

Analysis and Interpretation

Tools

Identify Uncertainty and Knowledge Gaps

Develop Spatially Explicit Risk Assessment Model

Provide web-based tool for assessment activities

Improve plant selection process

Improve plant test guidelines

Provide Input to Eco-system Response Tests

Develop Mode of Action Studies / Molecular Biology Tools

OPP, OPPT Research

Needs

ORD Multi-Year

Plan

Develop Tests for Reproductive / Developmental Endpoints

WED Research

Goals

Determine Ecological Effects of Gene Flow

from Transgenic

Crops

Develop Molecular Methods Develop molecular

methods to asses gene flow

Assess ecological effects of exposure to transgenic genes

Evaluate Spatial Databases, GIS Platform

Develop Probabilistic Systems Modeling Methods and Protocols

Conduct case Studies

Hold International Workshop

Conduct Gene Flow Studies

WED Research

Objectives

WED Research Approach

2. Improve Methods for

Spatially Explicit Risk Assessments

3. Develop New Methods for Gathering

Herbicide Dose-

Response Data

4. Investigate Potential

Effects of High Priority Hazards

LTG 3 Develop Scientific Basis to

Reduce Risks

LTG 4 Develop Information on

Novel New Hazards Develop Regionally

Based Species Selection Process

Conduct Greenhouse/ Field Studies

Conduct Greenhouse/ Growth Chamber/Field Ecological Studies

Provide Inputs for Prototype Model

Current Tier 1 and 2 tests use 10 different Current Tier 1 and 2 tests use 10 different crop plantscrop plants No non-crop plants are requiredNo non-crop plants are required

WED/RCB working with EFED to update WED/RCB working with EFED to update the requirements for plant testing and risk the requirements for plant testing and risk assessmentassessment

• EPA registers all pesticides for EPA registers all pesticides for specific usesspecific uses

• Responsible for determining Responsible for determining potential risk to nontarget plantspotential risk to nontarget plants

PesticidesPesticideschemical herbicideschemical herbicides Chemical Chemical

HerbicidesHerbicides

• Web-based GIS Web-based GIS support support

Crop: plant community Crop: plant community – wind – other risk – wind – other risk factorsfactors

• Locally-relevant test Locally-relevant test speciesspecies

Bioassay developmentBioassay development

• Spatially explicit Spatially explicit probabilistic risk probabilistic risk methodsmethods

Chemical HerbicidesChemical Herbicidesregional approach to Ecological regional approach to Ecological

Risk AssessmentRisk Assessment

Chemical Chemical HerbicidesHerbicides

Native Plants

Wind Patterns

Herbicide Use

Chemical Chemical HerbicidesHerbicides

Crop Location

Current Test SpeciesCurrent Test Species• CornCorn• SoybeanSoybean• CarrotCarrot• OnionOnion• BeetBeet• Sugar beetSugar beet• TomatoTomato• CucumberCucumber• LettuceLettuce• CabbageCabbage• OatOat• Perennial ryegrassPerennial ryegrass

Proposed Test SpeciesProposed Test Species• CropsCrops• ForbsForbs• Wood plantsWood plants• GrassesGrasses

Determined from GIS Determined from GIS analysis of crop location analysis of crop location plus risk factorsplus risk factors

Chemical HerbicidesChemical Herbicides

Test ProtocolsTest Protocols• Sensitive Sensitive

endpointsendpointsespecially especially reproductionreproduction

• Optimal growth Optimal growth conditionsconditions

• Perennial Perennial species life cycle species life cycle teststests

Chemical HerbicidesChemical Herbicides

• Use of GM crops Use of GM crops rapidly increasing in rapidly increasing in past 5 years past 5 years

• Growing concerns Growing concerns about potential ecol. about potential ecol. risks of gene flow risks of gene flow from crops to from crops to resident speciesresident species

• Little data and no Little data and no established methods established methods to assess these risksto assess these risks

GM Crops & Gene FlowGM Crops & Gene Flow

Evaluating Evaluating Gene Flow Gene Flow from GM from GM

CropsCrops

Gene Flow Gene Flow ExampleExample

• Field studyField study Round-up resistant bent grassRound-up resistant bent grass Pollen flowPollen flow Seed dispersalSeed dispersal

GM Crops & Gene Flow GM Crops & Gene Flow ApproachApproach

• Field studyField study Round-up resistant bent grassRound-up resistant bent grass Pollen flowPollen flow Seed dispersalSeed dispersal

• MicrocosmsMicrocosms Artificial communitiesArtificial communities Bent grass and canolaBent grass and canola Fitness effects of Fitness effects of

transgene transfertransgene transfer

GM Crops & Gene Flow GM Crops & Gene Flow ApproachApproach

• Field studyField study Round-up resistant bent grassRound-up resistant bent grass Pollen flowPollen flow Seed dispersalSeed dispersal

• MicrocosmsMicrocosms Artificial communitiesArtificial communities Bent grass and canolaBent grass and canola Fitness effects of Fitness effects of

transgene transfertransgene transfer

• Greenhouse & labGreenhouse & lab Gene transfer possibilityGene transfer possibility Gene expressionGene expression Fitness effectsFitness effects

GM Crops & Gene FlowGM Crops & Gene Flowapproachapproach

Terrestrial HabitatsTerrestrial Habitats

Spatially Explicit Wildlife Spatially Explicit Wildlife ModelsModels

• Integrate direct Integrate direct and indirect and indirect effects of effects of pesticidespesticides

• Population level Population level endpointsendpoints

• Probabilistic Probabilistic risk risk assessmentsassessments

PATCHPATCHProgram to Assist Tracking Critical Program to Assist Tracking Critical

HabitatHabitat

• Originally Originally developed to developed to assess effects of assess effects of amount of habitat amount of habitat changechange Alternative futures Alternative futures

projectproject

• Adapting model to Adapting model to include change in include change in habitat qualityhabitat quality Insecticide Insecticide

applicationsapplications

PATCHPATCHProgram to Assist Tracking Critical Program to Assist Tracking Critical

HabitatHabitat

• Model developmentModel development

• Hypothetical Hypothetical landscapeslandscapes

• Empirical studyEmpirical study Bluebirds in Bluebirds in

Willamette ValleyWillamette Valley

• Life history Life history database database developmentdevelopment Reproduction, Reproduction,

mortality, dispersal mortality, dispersal rates for birdsrates for birds

Dynamic LandscapesDynamic Landscapes

Modeling Modeling Stressor Stressor Effects on Effects on Habitat & Habitat & Wildlife in a Wildlife in a Managed Managed Forest Forest LandscapeLandscape

Multiple, Interacting Stessors

Biogeochemistry Model (GEM)

Plant Community Model (FORCLIM)

Wildlife Model (PATCH)

Population Changes

Habitat ModelsTree growth model (TREGRO)

Dynamic LandscapesDynamic Landscapes

GEMGEMGeneral Ecosystem ModelGeneral Ecosystem Model

• BiogeochemistryBiogeochemistry N – C - waterN – C - water

• Predicts amount Predicts amount of biomass of biomass production under production under differing differing environmental environmental scenariosscenarios

• Predicts C and N Predicts C and N output to streams output to streams & soil retention& soil retention

TREGRO & FORCLIMTREGRO & FORCLIM

• TREGROTREGRO Physiologically Physiologically

based model to based model to predict individual predict individual tree growth as a tree growth as a function of stressfunction of stress

• FORCLIMFORCLIM Forest stand Forest stand

model to predict model to predict changes in changes in species species composition as a composition as a function of stress function of stress to individual treesto individual trees

Integrated Models for Integrated Models for Predicting Wildlife EffectsPredicting Wildlife Effects

BLM’s Mission is CriticalBLM’s Mission is Critical