JRC-OECD-PLACARD-Workshop

26-28 October 2016, Paris, France

Testing the Sendai indicators for “economic losses”

in Germany

Stephanie Natho

&

Annegret Thieken

University of Potsdam

Institute of Earth and Environmental Science

Hazard profile for Germany

Natural hazards in Germany

according to EM-DAT:

94 events between 1900 and 2016

Very costly:

Floods in 2002: € 11.6 bn

Floods in 2013: € 8 bn

Storm (Kyrill) in 2007: € 4.5 bn

Flash floods in 2016: € 1.2 bn (only

insured losses)

Extent and severity of flooding in June 2013

Record-breaking soil

saturation in May 2013

Source: CEDIM Forensic Disaster Analysis Group; revised in February 2014, pers. com. K. Schröter (GFZ)

S=75, L=45%

S: Severity index from Uhlemann, Thieken, Merz (2010) – HESS 14: 1277–1295.

Minimum requirements according to JRC and IRDR:

Human indicators for the flood of 2013

Source: Thieken et al. (2016): The flood of June 2013 in Germany: how much do we know about its

impacts? – NHESS 16: 1519-1540.

Minimum requirements according to JRC and IRDR:

Physical damage and economic indicators (2013-flood)

Damage per sector in 2013

Source: Thieken et al. (2016). NHESS 16: 1519-1540.

Events considered for

testing Sendai-Indicators

River flooding in 1999,

2002, 2005 and 2013

Flash floods in 2014

and 2016

Windstorms in 2007,

2010 and 2014

Hail storms in 1984,

2006 and 2013

Summary: Data availability

Loss = Number of damaged or destroyed structures *

average size *

unit replacement costs *

loss ratio

Number

Damaged

vs.

destroyed

Loss

ratio

Costs

per m² Average

size [m²]

Reported

loss [€]

Infra-

structure

Res.

buildings

Agri-

culture

Estimation

Derived from other data

Specific Data

Direct losses in € Billion

Agriculture

Industry

Commerce

Houses damaged

Houses destroyed

Health

Education

Roads

Sum: infrastructure

Sum

Infr

a-

str

cu

ture

Example calculation for the flood of 2002 in Saxony

Estimations for the

commercial and the

residential sector with

adapted values for

Germany are in a

reasonable order of

magnitude.

Estimates for

damage to

infrastructure are far

too low.

OpenStreetMap Name % of roads (BRD) € costs per km % of roads without Bund roads

motorway 2,7 10.000.000 0

primary 7 5.700.000 0

secondary 16,9 1.000.000 18,7

tertiary 18,4 470.000 20,3

residential 55,1 423.871 61,0

Possible approach for roads

Documented damaged road length is

distributed among road types according

to federal average

Unit costs per road type are multiplied

by the road lengths and the loss ratio.

Example Saxony 2002:

740 km of roads affected

assumed loss ratio: ca. 34%

reported costs (without roads owned by

the Federal Government): € 135 million

example 740 km roads total costs costs in %

motorway not applicable 0 0,0

primary not applicable 0 0,0

secondary 138 46.741.386 34,5

tertiary 150 23.884.977 17,7

residential 451 64.665.625 47,8

SUM 739 135.291.987

Summary

Task Force „Flash Flood Braunsbach“

Estimation of discharge

Mapping of landslides

Collection of damage to

residential buildings

Damage collection

On-site survey (KoBo-Collect)

Structural damage

Water level, flow direction

Building use and construction

type

Data for

100 buildings

Official loss reports

Repair costs buildings:

approx. € 1 million

Infrastructure costs:

approx. € 100 million

Conclusions and suggestions

With adaptations, parts of the methodology for the

economic loss indicators are applicable to Germany.

Still, many input data are not available.

Methods to estimate damage to infrastructure need more

attention.

With a newly funded DAAD-Scholarship more studies, also for

other European countries could be undertaken in 2017.

Particularly, the collection of (physical) damage data needs

more attention.

Task Force “Braunsbach” demonstrated the feasibility.

Idea: Create European Task Forces (e.g. in a COST action).