Announcements

Today is the last lecture!

Course evaluations will be handed out today.

Wednesday’s class

Will give penultimate review session. Will probably schedule another review session during the week of finals (TBA).

Will hand back essays, exams, final exam exemptions at the end of the class.

If are involved in university activities and require an early final, let me ASAP.

IPCC global warming projections

Economic and social change

scenario

More “business as usual” scenario

IPCC precipitation projectionsNH Winter and summer

Generally less rain in subtropics and more near the poles.

Reflects poleward shift in mid-latitude storm track.

THESE PROJECTIONS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN…

Other major IPCC projections“VERY LIKELY”

Sea-level rise of (at least) 0.2 to 0.6 m (half a foot to two feet)

Acidification of the ocean

Continued contraction of snow cover and polar ice sheets

Increase in the number of heat waves and heavy precipitation events

“LIKELY” (more uncertainty)

Slowdown in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (i.e. Gulf Stream), but not enough to mitigate warming in Europe, for example.

Intensification of tropical cyclones associated with an increase in sea surface temperature.

A note on the hurricane intensity, global warming question…

This is still some (vigorous) disagreement in the meteorological community as to whether the intensity of tropical cyclones has actually increased in recent years. Some studies suggest yes.

Complex problem because hurricanes are influenced by natural climate variability too.

My opinion: No one single event or hurricane season should be used as conclusive “proof” of global warming.

Projected U.S precipitation changes in IPCC models

Southwest U.S. may be hard hit—but precipitation projections are more uncertain

BIG CAVEAT: Representation of summer rainfall processes, like the summer monsoon in Arizona

What a meter rise in sea level might do…

(Univ. of Arizona)

LARGE Uncertainties remain!

Climate change projections may be very different with higher resolution models.

How may global warming influence natural climate variability? For example, would there be a greater frequency of El Niños?

Are there feedbacks in the climate system which we don’t know about and are not represented in models? Are all the known feedbacks being represented correctly?

What are the roles of other human-caused factors which may also contribute toward climate change. These may actually be more important on the regional and local scale than greenhouse-gas associated global warming

Changes in land use due to urbanization, agricultureAtmospheric aerosols due to local pollutionDeforestation

NATS 101 Section 4: Lecture 36

Global Warming

The Fix

Got a solution for global warming?$25 Million Reward waiting!

Sir Richard BransonDeveloped Virgin brand

Net worth: About $6 billion

Announced a $25 million prize for anyone that comes who comes up with the best way of removing significant amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Virgin Airlines planes will become the first in the world to use biofuels in commercial aircraft jets.

Yes, Sir Richard is good friends with Al Gore.

Geoengineering solutions?

(MSNBC)

Geoengineering solution #1

Man-made volcano

Proposal

Use balloons, jet engines, and artillery to put millions of tons of sulfates in the stratosphere to mimic the cooling effects of a volcanic eruption

Problems

Expensive.

Need to continuously inject tends of thousands of pounds per month.

Could adversely affect climate even more!

Geoengineering solution #2

The geritol solution

Proposal

Dump iron ore dust into the ocean to create an algae bloom which would absorb carbon dioxide and sink

Problems

Could change sea temperatures which would effect marine ecosystems.

Political implications.

Has shown mixed results in small scale experiments.

Geoengineering solution #3

Solar umbrella

Proposal

In 20 million launches, deploy 16 trillion refracting disks in orbit between the Earth and the sun.

This would effectively reduce the incoming solar radiation by 2%.

Problems

REALLY expensive—like $4 trillion dollars!

Take thirty years or more to do.

THIS ONE WAS PROPOSED BY UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA PROFESSOR ROBERT ANGEL.

Geoengineering solution #4

Artificial trees

Proposal

Use industrial size artificial trees to filter carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (about 200 ft. high).

Carbon dioxide is captured in the slats of the tree with a sodium hydroxide liquid, and then sent to a processing facility for storage.

Problems

Separation and disposal costs are high.

Leakage a risk to humans and ecosystems.

MY OPINION: THIS IDEA ISN’T HALF BAD, IF THE TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGES CAN BE WORKED OUT.

Geoengineering solution #5

Carbon sequestration

Proposal

Capture carbon dioxide from major emissions sources and discard them into salt formations, coal beds, depleted oil and natural gas reserves, or the ocean.

Problems

Expensive

Leakage a risk to humans and ecosystems

May change volume of the ocean.

THIS IDEA IS ALREADY BEING TRIED IN NORWAY.

While some of the geoengineering solutions may be practicable, the most obvious thing we can do is to transition

away from a fossil fuel based economy.

There are MANY very good reasons to do this—and a lot of them have nothing to do

with global warming and are quite sensible.

SOME REALLY GOOD ARGUMENTS TO GET OFF FOSSIL FUELS

They are the largest contributor to the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases, which has been linked to global warming.

Use of other technologies may reduce pollution problems related to fossil fuel use, which already have significant negative effects on human health and the economy.

The existing infrastructure in the United States for production and distribution of petroleum products is concentrated mainly in the Gulf Coast region. These facilities are vulnerable to natural disaster and potential terrorist attack.

We are dependent on the Middle East for 10% of our fossil fuels. Events in that part of the world will always affect the price of oil

on the global market, even if we produce more oil domestically.We’ll necessarily have to have the military presence and political

involvement in that region to protect the resource—which isvery expensive

Energy independence will increase our economic and national security.

And one more pretty obvious one!

THE OIL IS GOING TO PROBABLY RUN OUT ONE OF

THESE DAYS ANYWAY!

The other side…from the Minority Ranking Member of the U.S. Senate Committee on

Environment and Public Works

Senator James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma)Re-elected November 2008

Global warming is the greatesthoax ever

perpetrated on the American people!

Some arguments on the other side of the issue…

Global warming is not conclusively linked to human beings and there is still too much uncertainty with respect to the science on this issue to warrant economic and social changes.

The economic costs to transition away from fossil fuels would be too great, for both businesses and individuals.

Economic transitions may put an undue burden on poor people and the poorer states, which would all be least able to afford and adapt to new technologies, purchase emissions credits, or retrain workers.

The Kyoto Protocol exempts China and India, and these nations would continue to be able to use fossil fuels while more developed nations are burdened with the cost of economic changes. This would put the United States at an economic disadvantage. This is basically the reason the U.S. Senate rejected it.

Possible energy alternatives to fossil fuels

Nuclear

Hydroelectric

Bioenergy

Geothermal

Wind

Solar

MANY OF THESE OPTIONS ARE ALREADY BEING USED AND HAVE DEMONSTRATED ECONOMIC VIABILITY

In which alternative energy source is this Texas oil tycoon most heavily invested?

A) Biofuels

B) Hydroelectric

C) Geothermal

D) Wind

E) Solar T. Boone Pickens(On a hunting trip…)

Nuclear Power Already supplies 6.8% of global energy.

Source of the majority of power in some industrialized countries, like France and Japan.

Complex technology, expensive, vulnerable to misuses such as weaponization.

Nuclear power can be environmentally dangerous (e.g. Chernobyl, Three Mile Island)

Need a substantial amount of capital investment to build a power plant.

Hydroelectric

Hoover DamPowers most of Las Vegas, NV

Harnesses the power of water flowing down rivers.

Supplies a significant portion of U.S. energy needs already and has been nearly fully developed, for example: Colorado River Columbia River Tennessee Valley

May also help in flood control and water supply.

May cause significant environmental and social disruption (e.g. Three Gorges Dam)

Potential hydroelectric power from the ocean has large potential.

Bioenergy Result of photosynthetic conversion of solar energy and carbon dioxide into plant material or decomposition processes.

Relatively cheap and available in most parts of the world.

Makes economic sense as long as the biofuel is NOT also used as a food source for humans and animals (e.g. corn)

Existing combustion engine technology can easily be adapted to run on biofuels or vice versa.

EXAMPLES: ETHANOL, METHANE, VEGETABLE OIL, BIODIESEL, AGRICULTURAL RESIDUES.

E85 Gas pump in Minnesota

Brazil already switched to biofuels twenty years ago…

Brazilian sugar cane field

As part of their economic reforms in 1980s, Brazil made the choice to develop its own biofuel resources.

Brazilian ethanol is derived from sugar cane, grown mostly in the southeast part of the country.

With a population of about 200 million people, the country is now energy independent and one of the most prosperous and politically stable in Latin America.

Geothermal

Geothermal power plant in Italy

Uses heat energy from the Earth to generate electricity.

Only available in limited parts of the world, but where is does exist it can potentially supply a lot of power.

Could be a significant resource in the western U.S., about 14 times the energy from estimated coal reserves.

Iceland: On the way to becoming the world’s first greenhouse gas free country?

Krafla geothermal power stationIceland

Iceland gets most of its energy from geothermal power.

Resource is abundant there because it sits on a boundary of two tectonic plates.

The country set a national goal of becoming completely energy independent and eliminating all fossil fuel use.

Wind

Wind farm in west Texas

Giant blades turn turbines converting wind power into electricity.

Currently already happening in 27 U.S. states. Most production in the state of Texas.

There is an enormous amount of generating power all over the world.

Turbine components are cheap to manufacture.

Yields economic benefits to landowners, like farmers and ranchers.

Rapidly growing industry—will be worth $25 billion by 2010.

Solar Generates electric by heating water or by use of photovoltaic cells.

Annual solar resource is surprisingly uniform all over the world, to within a factor of two. So it is viable just about anywhere!

It can be produced on a wide variety of scales.

GOING TOWARD THIS TYPE OF ENERGY ON A GLOBAL SCALE PROBABLY HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND MAKE ALL COUNTRIES ENERGY INDEPENDENT.

Solar power plants in California

Solar is catching on all over the world…

CHINA NEPAL

GERMANYJAPAN

My comment: We’d better develop this technology in our own country quickly or we’re going to economically loose out!

Can alternative energy be the American industrial renaissance?

First Solar plantNear Toledo, OH

Tucson is already leading the way!

Armory Park del Sol Downtown Tucson

Most energy efficient homes in U.S.

Armory Park del Sol neighborhood in downtown Tucson has some of the most energy efficient homes in the entire country.

Photovoltaic cells on the roofs of these houses actually put energy back on the electric grid—and the meter runs backward!

Companies like Global Solar are generating the panels right here in Tucson—and their business is growing!

WHY CAN’T THE ROOF OF EVERY HOUSE IN ARIZONA LOOK LIKE THIS??

The cost of solar WILL decrease with greater production volume

(International Solar Energy Society)

And you’ll probably be pumping hydrogen in the tank instead of gas

one of these days…

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technology

How it works

Use power from a renewable source (wind, solar) to split water into hydrogen and oxygen.

The hydrogen can be stored and then later be recombined with oxygen in a fuel cell, generating electricity.

The by-product is of this process is plain water!

THIS COULD PROVIDE A LIMITLESS SOURCE OF NON-POLLUTING ENERGY!

Will your future car look like this?

Hydrogen fuel technology is still in it’s infancy, but several car companies already have working prototypes.

Big technological hurdles remain, like distribution systems and storage tanks.

In the meantime, hybrid vehicles, biofuel powered vehicles, and fuel efficient vehicles that use plain old gas are the most economically viable options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transportation sources.

Obama Energy Plan

Five million new jobs by investing $150 billion over the next ten years to catalyze private efforts to build a clean energy future.

Within 10 years save more oil than we currently import from the Middle East and Venezuela combined.

Put 1 million Plug-In Hybrid cars -- cars that can get up to 150 miles per gallon -- on the road by 2015, cars that we will work to make sure are built here in America.

Ensure 10 percent of our electricity comes from renewable sources by 2012, and 25 percent by 2025.

Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050.

Make the U.S. a Leader on Climate Change.

WHAT ARE SOME THINGS AMERICA NEEDS FROM YOU TO MAKE IT HAPPEN?

HIGH PROFICIENCY IN MATH, SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

ABILITY TO THINK INTEGRATIVELY TO DEVELOP EMERGING DISCIPLINES AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES OF THE FUTURE

CREATIVITY, ORIGINALITY, AND INITIATIVE

GOOD COMMUNICATION SKILLS—IN MORE THAN ONE LANGUAGE!

INTELLECTUAL CURIOSITY

CULTURAL UNDERSTANDING AND COOPERATION

AN EARNEST DESIRE TO WORK HARD FOR THE COMMON GOOD OF YOUR COUNTRY AND THE WORLD

WHAT DO YOU GET IF YOU ADD ALL THAT UP??

ENLIGHTENED AND INFORMED PUBLIC CITIZENS WHO HAVE THE CAPACITY TO

CONCEIVE AND CREATE A HOPEFUL FUTURE FOR MANY

GENERATIONS TO COME!

I KNOW YOU ALL ARE UP TO THE CHALLENGE!