annual and monthly data relationship the iea, an example · powerpoint presentation author: gervais...

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Annual and Monthly Data Relationshipthe IEA, an exampleErica Robin – Head of Section - Oil and Natural Gas Statistics - IEAEnergy Data Transparency Workshop – 30 April 2019, Cape Town

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Relationship between Annual and Monthly data

• The IEA data collection system

• Reasons for collecting monthly data

• Challenges of collecting monthly data/JODI


IEA – the oil data collection system

• Monthly (OECD/Supply): MOS (M-2), JODI (M-1), emergency

• Annual: Y-2 (World/Supply and demand)Y-1 (OECD/supply preliminary) & Non-OECD production estimates

Annual data (Y-2)

56 countries including all

OECD

87 countries

Rest

Ministries and Statistical Agencies

Direct communicationNational publications

World Oil supply

and demand

April 2019: OECD 2017July 2019: World 2017

OECD 2018p

Oil Information (July) and many other publications


Annual and Monthly oil statistics

International Marine

Bunkers

Imports Stock Change

Recycled Products

ExportsProducts

Transferred

Gross Output

Interproduct Transfers

Refinery Fuel

Inland Deliveries

Primary Products Receipts


Annual and Monthly oil statistics

International Marine

Bunkers

Imports Stock Change

Recycled Products

ExportsProducts

Transferred

Gross Output

Interproduct Transfers

Refinery Fuel

Inland Deliveries

Primary Products Receipts

Transformation

Energy sector

Distribution losses

Transport

Industry

Residential,commercial,

agriculture etc.


The IEA monthly oil data system

• MOS

• JODI

• Emergency data collection (IEA countries)- QuE – Standard Modules: Data requirements depend on the nature of the oil supply

disruption -> flexible questionnaire designed to facilitate this

M-2

OECD countries

Large amount of data

M-1

Broad geographic scope

Limited amount of data


Why collect monthly oil data?

Improved analysis and policies

Transparency in the oil market

Energy security


Why collect monthly oil data?• Transparency in the oil market

- Short-term/Trend indications- Seasonality- Impact of events (planned or unplanned)- Data validation

• Improved analysis and policies- Preliminary source of information- Basis for comparison with annual data

• Energy security purposes- Recent/quick assessment of markets- Size of a supply disruption- Ad-hoc assessment- Monitoring of a country’s ability to face a disruption


Why collect monthly oil data – Transparency in the oil market

Short term – Trend indicators

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

per

Day

OECD - Total Product Demand

2014 - 2018 Range 5-year average 2017 2018

2,050

2,100

2,150

2,200

2,250

2,300

2,350

2,400

2,450

2,500

2,550

Thou

sand

Bar

rels

OECD - Total Oil Stocks

2014 - 2018 Range 5-year average 2018 2019



Seasonality

Greece – Jet Kerosene Demand UK – Other Kerosene Demand



Impact of events - Scheduled maintenance

Austria – Crude, NGL + Feedstocks Refinery Intake

Austria – Total Products Refinery Gross Output



Impact of events - Detailed visualization of the effects of unplanned events• Example: France 2016 - Impact of strike on oil markets / oil industry

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16

Ref

iner

y O

utpu

t by

Prod

uct

LPG Naphtha Motor Gasoline Jet Kero Other Kero

Gas/Diesel Oil Fuel Oil (Residual) Petroleum Coke Other Products Total Products

118

128

138

148

158

168

178

188

198

208

Thou

sand

Bar

rels

per

Day

2011 - 2016 Range 2016 2017

Gasoline demand Refinery outputs

Source: IEA, Monthly oil data service



A negative refinery loss implies a refinery gainSource: IEA, Monthly oil data service, Oil Information 2017

--

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

2013 2014 2015 2016

kt

Refinery Losses (Annual data)

% - Refinery losses as a percentage of refinery intake

Data validation - Detailed visualization of possible data issues


Why collect monthly oil data – Improved analysis and policiesPreliminary source of information

LNG imports from major exporters to OECD regions in 2017 in million cubic meters


Why collect monthly oil data – Improved analysis and policiesPreliminary source of information

OECD Natural gas deliveries to power generation and gross deliveries in 2016 and 2017 (selected European countries)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

BCM

Deliveries to power generation in 2017Gross consumption exc. power generation in 2017Deliveries to power generation in 2016Gross consumption exc. power generation in 2016


Why collect monthly oil data – Improved analysis and policiesBasis for comparison with annual data


Why collect monthly oil data – Energy Security Purposes

Quick assessment of markets


Why collect monthly oil data – Energy Security Purposes

Monitoring of a country’s ability to face a disruption

80

85

90

95

100

105

Day

s co

ver

Country A - EMR Calculation Seasonal

2015 to 2018 range 2017 2018 2019

0

50

100

150

200

0

50

100

150

200

Jan-

14

Apr

-14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

Jan-

15

Apr

-15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

Jan-

16

Apr

-16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan-

17

Apr

-17

Jul-1

7

Oct

-17

Jan-

18

Apr

-18

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Day

s C

over

Country B - Days of Net Imports Split

Public Industry Public Held Abroad Industry Held Abroad Total 90-Day


Challenges in collecting monthly data

• Timeliness can be a factor

• The data collection system of a country also matters (voluntary v. mandatory)

• Confidentiality issues

--

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

2013 2014 2015 2016

LPG (Gross Inland Deliveries Observed)

Monthly Annual

In this example, monthly deliveries

data does not cover private

operators


www.iea.org

annual and monthly data relationship the iea, an example · powerpoint presentation author: gervais...

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