annual growth survey macroeconomic report brussels, 6 february 2013 kees van duin policy...
TRANSCRIPT
Annual Growth Survey
macroeconomic report
Brussels, 6 February 2013
Kees van Duin
Policy Coordination and Strategic planningDirectorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs
European Commission
A weakening global recoveryWorld trade and global manufacturing output
30
40
50
60
70
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
World trade volume, CPB data (lhs)
Global PMI manufacturing output (rhs)
y-o-y% 3-month moving average
Financial market tensions have eased…Stock-market indices, euro area
Ten-year government-bond yields, selected euro-area Member States
0
4
8
12
16
09 10 11 12
DE IT ES
PT IE FR
%
20
40
60
80
100
120
07 08 09 10 11 12
EuroSTOXX (financials)
EuroSTOXX 50
index, Jan. 2007=100
…but banks' credit standards remain tight
Credit conditions in the euro areaECB Bank Lending Survey
Bank lending to households and non-financial corporations, euro area
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
GDP (lhs)Loans to households (rhs)Loans to non-financial corporations (rhs)
y-o-y% y-o-y%
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-40
-20
0
20
40
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Supply - past 3 months (lhs) Supply - next 3 months (lhs)
Demand - past 3 months (rhs) Demand - next 3 months (rhs)
balance
tightening ↑ ↓ easing
balance
decrease ↓
increase ↑
Financial fragmentation in the euro area
5
Interest rates on loans to enterprises (new businesses, maturity up to 1 year)
Gradual recovery from 2013 on
90
95
100
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14GDP growth rate (lhs)GDP (quarterly), index (rhs)GDP (annual), index (rhs)
forecast
q-o-q% index, 2007=100
3.20.3
-4.3
1.5-0.3
0.4
Figures above horizontal bars are annual growth rates.
1.6
2.1
7
Private sector deleveragingIndebtedness, sectoral decomposition (% of GDP), 2011
Source: Eurostat
Public sector deleveragingGeneral government consolidated gross debt, % of GDP
Current-account imbalances
Current-account position, % of GDP
Public finances set to improve further
General government budget balance, euro
area
General government debt,
euro area
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
% of GDP
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
General goverment balance
General government balance in structural terms
forecast
% of GDP
Differences in GDP growth…
11
Facing the economic challenges in the EU…
Annual Growth Survey 20131. Pursuing differentiated growth friendly fiscal consolidation2. Restoring normal lending to the economy3. Promoting growth and competitiveness for today and tomorrow4. Tackling unemployment and the social consequences of the crisis5. Modernising public administration