annual international economic trends - hamilton college · united states international economic...

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International Economic Trends United States 64 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Percent change from year ago Nominal Real GDP 0 2 4 6 8 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Percent change from year ago GDP Deflator CPI Inflation 0 1 2 3 4 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Percent change from year ago MZM M2 Monetary Aggregates -4 0 4 8 12 16 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Percent 3-Month CDs Long-Term Government Bonds Interest Rates 0 2 4 6 8 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

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International Economic Trends United States

64Research Division

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year ago

Nominal

Real

GDP

0

2

4

6

8

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year ago

GDP Deflator

CPI

Inflation

0

1

2

3

4

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year ago

MZM

M2

Monetary Aggregates

-4

0

4

8

12

16

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent

3-Month CDs

Long-Term Government Bonds

Interest Rates

0

2

4

6

8

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

International Economic TrendsUnited States

65Research DivisionFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent of GDP

Current Account Balance

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Trade-Weighted Exchange Index, March 1973 = 100

Exchange Rate

70

80

90

100

110

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Billions of US$

Foreign Exchange Reserves

25

30

35

40

45

50

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent of GDP

Government Budget Balance

-6

-4

-2

0

2

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

National Economic Trendsupdated through

01/15/10

4Research Division

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Percent change from year ago

Real Gross Domestic Product

-5

0

5

10

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Percent change from year ago Index

Industrial Production(left scale)

ISM(right scale)

Industrial Production and Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Indexes

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

18

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

26

34

42

50

58

66

74

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Percent change from year ago

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Percent of GDP

Real Change in Private Inventories

-2

-1

0

1

2

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Monetary Trendsupdated through01/06/10

9Research DivisionFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Percent

3-Month Treasury Yield

90-Day Commercial PaperPrime Rate

Short-Term Interest Rates

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Percent

Conventional Mortgage

Corporate Aaa10-Year Treasury Yield

Long-Term Interest Rates

||||||

2

4

6

8

10

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Percent

Discount Rate

Intended Federal Funds Rate

Primary Credit Rate

FOMC Intended Federal Funds Rate, Discount Rate, and Primary Credit Rate

0

2

4

6

8

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

2006 2007 2008 2009

Percent

Corporate Baa

10-Year Treasury Yield

Long-Term Interest Rates

2

4

6

8

10

2006 2007 2008 2009 20102006 2007 2008 2009

Percent

90-Day Commercial Paper

3-Month Treasury Yield

*90-Day Commercial Paper data are not available for December2005, January 2006, and July 2006.

Short-Term Interest Rates

-2

0

2

4

6

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

International Economic Trends Euro Area

22Research Division

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year ago

Nominal

Real

GDP

-2

0

2

4

6

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year ago Euro per US$

Exchange Rate(right scale)

CPI(left scale)

Inflation and Exchange Rate

0

1

2

3

4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year ago

M1

M3

Monetary Aggregates

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent

90-Day Deposits

Weighted Average of Government Bonds

Interest Rates

2

4

6

8

10

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

International Economic TrendsEuro Area

13Research DivisionFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Percent change from year ago

Nominal

Real

GDP

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Percent change from year ago

Industrial Production

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Percent change from year ago

Retail Sales

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Percent

Capacity Utilization

70

75

80

85

90

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

International Economic Trends Japan

36Research Division

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year ago

Nominal

Real

GDP

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year ago

GDP Deflator

CPI

Inflation

*Data prior to 1995 uses a fixed 1995 base year and may not be strictly comparable with later figures.

-2

0

2

4

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year ago

M1

M2

Monetary Aggregates

-10

0

10

20

30

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent

3-Month CDs

10-Year Government Bonds

Interest Rates

0

1

2

3

4

5

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

International Economic Trends Japan

30Research Division

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Percent change from year ago

Nominal

Real

GDP

-10

-5

0

5

10

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Percent change from year ago

Industrial Production

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Percent change from year ago

Retail Sales

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

2005 = 100

Capacity Utilization

60

70

80

90

100

110

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

International Economic Trends China

18Research Division

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year ago

Nominal

Real

GDP

0

10

20

30

40

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year ago

GDP Deflator

CPI

Inflation

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year ago

M1

Broad Money

Monetary Aggregates

0

10

20

30

40

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent

Bank Rate on 20-Day Loans

Interest Rates

0

4

8

12

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

International Economic TrendsChina

19Research DivisionFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent of GDP

Current Account Balance

-3

0

3

6

9

12

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Chinese Yuan per US$

Exchange Rate

2

4

6

8

10

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Billions of US$

Foreign Exchange Reserves

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent of GDP

Government Budget Balance

-3

-2

-1

0

1

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

International Economic Trends Malaysia

40Research Division

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year ago

Nominal

Real

GDP

-8

0

8

16

24

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year ago

GDP Deflator

CPI

Inflation

-3

0

3

6

9

12

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year ago

M1

M2

Monetary Aggregates

-40

-20

0

20

40

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent

3-Month T-Bills

Interest Rates

2

4

6

8

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

International Economic Trends Mexico

42Research Division

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year agoPercent change from year ago

Nominal(right scale)

Real(left scale)

GDP

-8

-4

0

4

8

0

10

20

30

40

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year ago

GDP Deflator

CPI

Inflation

0

10

20

30

40

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent change from year ago

M1 M4

Monetary Aggregates

0

10

20

30

40

50

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Percent

3-Month T-Bills

Interest Rates

0

10

20

30

40

50

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09