annual meeting of the american institute for decision ...j' i,*' v-' > **/ /./...

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AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR DECISION SCIENCES PROCEEDINGS Ninth Annual Meeting of the American Institute of Decision Sciences Chicago, Illinois October 19-21, 1977 Edited by Justin D. Stolen James J. Conway University of Nebraska at Omaha r universitAtsbibliothek hannover technische informationsbibliothek Program Chairmen Norman L. Chervany University of Minnesota Herbert Moskowitz Purdue University

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Page 1: Annual Meeting of the American Institute for Decision ...J' I,*' V-' > **/ /./ TABLEOFCONTENTS Forward _This., .,, in is Aids IV ACCOUNTING Auditing and Control The Applicability

AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR DECISION SCIENCES

PROCEEDINGS

Ninth Annual Meetingof the

American Institute of Decision Sciences

Chicago, Illinois

October 19-21, 1977

Edited by

Justin D. Stolen

James J. Conway

University of Nebraska at Omaha

r universitAtsbibliothekhannover

technische

informationsbibliothek

Program Chairmen

Norman L. Chervany

University of Minnesota

Herbert Moskowitz

Purdue University

Page 2: Annual Meeting of the American Institute for Decision ...J' I,*' V-' > **/ /./ TABLEOFCONTENTS Forward _This., .,, in is Aids IV ACCOUNTING Auditing and Control The Applicability

J' I,*' V-' > **/ / ./

TABLE OF CONTENTSForward_ . , .,, inThis is Aids

IV

ACCOUNTING

Auditing and Control

The Applicability of Commonsense Inference to the Auditor's Problem of Attestation 1Raymond Dacey and William Bentz

A Utility Theory Analysis of the Accountant's Materiality Decision 4Lauren K. Newton

The Evaluation of Internal Control by Auditors: A Quasi-Experiment 7Robert E. Hamilton

Auditing and Control.

An Expanded Interactive Approach to Baycsian Sampling Procedures for Auditors 10

James W. Gentry, Charles Caldwell, and Gail Holtman

A Multivariate, Wiriables Extension of Baycsian Statistical Sampling Methods for Auditors 13Edward Blocher

A Framework for a Class of Slocliustiv Management Models 16J. F. Kotlas, A. H, L. Lau, and H, S. Lau

Contemporary Issues In Accounting

Complexity Theory and Financial Information 19

Sheng-Der Pan

Social Implications of the Report on Objectives of Financial Statements 22Rosita S. Chen

Leveraged Leases: An Analysis of the Economic-Income Approach , 25Thomas E. King, Robert Capettini, Susan R, Horan, and Dwaine Schaffner

FINANCE

Special Topics in Financial Management — Empirical Studies

Impact of Pollution Control Regulations on die Market Risk of Securities 28

S, MahapatraDetermination of Forecast Variances for a Class of Nonstalionary Autoregressive Financial Forecasting Models 31

Peter M. Ellis

Institutional Lending Practices

A Comparison of Recent Community Lending Practices of Unit and Branch Banks 33

Frank Keller, Roberto Marchesini and Michael J. Mezzino

Interest Rates Charged on Closed-End Credit 36

Suk H. Kim, Charles Votaw and Henry J. Guithues

Truth-in-Lending Law and Small Creditors 39

Henry J, Guithues and Suk H. Kim

Special Topics in Financial Management — Analytical Models

Duration as a Time Explicit Decision Variable for Security Valuation 42

Herbert M. Kennedy and John D. Markese

Stochastic Dominance — A New Analytical Tool in the Multi-Bank Holding Company Acquisition Decision 45

Terrence F. Marlell and Walton R. L. Taylor

Investment Analysis — Empirical Studies

Residual Heteroscedasticity as a Determinant of Beta Instability: An Empirical Study 48

Gary M. Grudnitski and James P. Mandel

Skewness Preference in Investor's Decision Making •

"

Yong H. Kim and Do-Soung Choi

A Dynamic Model of Inflation and the Return to Common Shareholders: The United Kingdom Experience 54

Paul J. Swanson, Jr.

Rationing and the Cost of Capital — Analytical ModelsToward an Understanding of Discount Rales Under Capital Rationing 57

Stanley Schenkerman

On the Cost and Maturity Preferences of Corporate Debt °°

Yoon K. Song

V

Page 3: Annual Meeting of the American Institute for Decision ...J' I,*' V-' > **/ /./ TABLEOFCONTENTS Forward _This., .,, in is Aids IV ACCOUNTING Auditing and Control The Applicability

Investment Analysis — Models and Methods

A Generalized Capital Asset Pricing Model "3

Son-Nan Chen

The Beta Effect and Portfolio Diversification: A Theoretical Investigation 66

Son-Nan Chen

The Lognormal Distribution and Holding Period Returns "9

San-Yun W. Tsai and Norval F. Pohl

Performance Evaluation in the Commercial Banking IndustryDecision Strategies in the Financial Institutions Sector: The Impact of Bankruptcy And Adverse Financial Information 71

Peter S. Rose and William L. Scott

A Discriminant Analysis of the Stock Performance of Bank Holding Companies 74

A, J. Alwan and Samir Nissan

Capital Allocation Decisions and Mathematical Programming Methods

Mathematical Programming Model of Capital Structure Planning ''

Neil B. Marks

Use of the Capital Asset Pricing Model in Capital Budgeting Decisions: A Dynamic Programming Approach 80

Nassir M. Al-Saigh and John J. Bernardo

Capital Budgeting: A Linear Multiobjective Programming Approach 83

John L, Eatman and C. W. Sealey

Capital Allocation Decisions and Mathematical Programming Methods

A Critical Look at the Use of Dynamic Programming in the Scheduling of Short-Term Excess Cash 86

Aziz A. Hamid

Corporate Funds Management-Cash Disbursement Account and Lock Box Location Analysis 89

Robert E. Markland and Robert M. Nauss

INNOVATIVE EDUCATION

Evaluation and Effectiveness of Instructional TechniquesThe University Teacher as a Leader

92Robert M. Mezoff

College Student Attitudinal Typoligies 95H. William \roman and S. Lee Owens

Updated Assessment of Self-Paced Statistics for Business — With a Formula for Determining MinimumCost-Effective Class Size

98John B. Rushton

Management GamingA Pluralistic Approach to Management Games

101Carol Kovach

The Stimulation of Advertising-Sales Environments for Classroom Implementation 104Jacob M. Duker and Edwin C, Hackleman

Teaching Operations Management

Teaching Operations Management with Guided Design 106Gregory P. White

An Empirical Methodology for a Systems Approach to the Introductory Production/Operations Management Course 109John G. Wacker and Bruce A, Skalbeck

Practicing What is Practiced: Integrating OB and Production Management Experientially 112

George A. Johnson and John N. Yanouzas

Computer Aided InstructionA Computer Assisted Introduction to Bookkeeping 115

J. C. Kinard and C. H. StanleyAn Evaluation of DECAID, a Decision Formulation CAL Program 118

Daniel J. Power and Gerald L. Rose

Some Experiences with the Introduction of Computer Use Into an Undergraduate Business School Environment 120Robert P. Cerveny

Macro-Approaches for Designing Learning SituationsA Practical, Decision Tree Framework for Designing Learning Situations

123W. Alan Randolph and Barry Z. Posner

Competency-Based Education126

Virginia L. Piucci and Farouk A. M. ShaabanA Learning Design for the Integration of (he Marketing Cirriculum

129Y. Sankar and R, W. Sweitzer

Application of Case Techniques in the Decision SciencesComputer Managed Cases for Decision Science Analysis

,, 132

A. Dale Flowers

A Model for the Writing of Comprehensive Cases135K. Mark Weaver and Joseph C. Latona

The Effects of the Case Approach to Tenching/Lcarning Upon Altitudes toward Companies:The Study of an Electric Utility

, 138Richard M. Durand and Arthur A. Thompson, Jr,

VI

Page 4: Annual Meeting of the American Institute for Decision ...J' I,*' V-' > **/ /./ TABLEOFCONTENTS Forward _This., .,, in is Aids IV ACCOUNTING Auditing and Control The Applicability

MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS

Systems Analysis and Design

Measuring MIS Project Success_

141

Paul H, CheneyMIS for an Active Decision Maker 144

Richard J*. Boland, Jr.

Developing Systems Analysts' Behavioral Skills Through Role Playing 147

Harry R. Smith and Kenneth A. Kozar

Systems and Analysis and Design

Design Criteria for Decision Support Systems 150

Richard D. Hackathorn

Using Administrative Data Banks for Research Purposes 153

Leslie L. Roos, Jr., Noralou P. Roos, Patrick Nicol, and Cynthia Johnson

Information Systems in Education

A User Oriented Information Systems Curriculum Survey 156

Gary R. Reeves and Robert S. Bussom

Strategic MIS in Higher Education 159

Richard J. Schonberger and Charles R. Franz

Information Systems TechnologyThe Principle of Chunking in Programming and Design: A Threshold for Acceptable Complexity 162

Peter R. Newsted

Determining Optimum Data Base Reorganization Points Through Simulation 165

Charles R. Franz and A. James Wynne \

A Bayesian Approach to the Determination of Risk Exposure in a Computer Security Environment 168

Leslie D. Ball and Stephen C. Hora

MARKETING

Situation Dependent Customer Decisions

A Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling Approach to the Marketing of Higher Educational Institutions 171

Robert W. Cook, Robert F. Krampf, and Terence A, ShimpA Field Investigation of the Drive Arousal-Drive Reduction Model of Consumer Health Decision Making 174

Richard L, Oliver and Philip K. BergerModerating Influences of Situations on Consumer Brand Preferences 177

William 0, Bearden and Arch G, Woodside

Marketing Research MethodologyMarketing Application of the LDF 10 Qualitative Dala: An Analysis and Limitations 180

William R, Dillcn and Marc G. WeinbergerAn Application of the Bernoulli and Markov Models to Automobile Purchases 183

Wilke D, English and William H. CunninghamA Similarity-Dissimilarity Analysis of Conceptually Close Stimuli 186

George E. Stungis, Stuart Van Auken, and Lance Reynolds

Advertising Decisions

Efficient Allocation of Advertising Expenditures Under Uncertainty 189

Richard L. Meyer and Robert L, Anderson

Attitude Research

Prediction ofConsumer Attitudes; A Comparison of Composition and Decomposition Models 192

Reza Moinpour, W, Wayne Talarzyk and James B. Wiley

Accuracy in Consumer Preference Prediction: An Empirical Test of Product Class and

Sex Difference for Several Choice Models 195

Ira J. Dolich and Chin T. Tan

Correlates of the Levels of Decision Processing for Automobiles 198

Richard E. Homans, R. Neil Maddox, and Frederick E. May

Marketing Promotions

Franchisor Promotional Support Programs of the Franchisee 201

J. Steven KellyMedia Implications of the Changing Roles of Women — An Empirical Study of Magazine Readership 204

Alfadi Venkatesh and Clint TankersleyA Probability Model of Deal Effects on Brand Choice 207

Johny K. Johansson

Retail Marketing Decisions

An Exploratory Analysis of the Nature and Extent of Grocery Store Loyalty by Geographical Regions 210

Robert H. Williams and Richard Discenza

Retail Store Visitation and the Cost-Value Hypothesis: An Application of the AID Algorithm 213

Subhash C. Lonial and Stuart Van Auken

Prescription Drug Price Disclosure and Consumer Awareness216

Michael D. Bernacchi, Ken Kono, Joanne Albrecht, Rosemarie Moras, and Donald Oitersonke

v1i

Page 5: Annual Meeting of the American Institute for Decision ...J' I,*' V-' > **/ /./ TABLEOFCONTENTS Forward _This., .,, in is Aids IV ACCOUNTING Auditing and Control The Applicability

Symposium on Advertising Effectiveness Research: Temporal Aggregation and Model TestingThe Effects of Specification Error and Temporal Aggregation on Cumulative Lftctts Models

Doyle Weiss and Piene Windal

Advertising Effects What Are We Measuring Any'

Darral Clarke

Market Segmentation

Expanding Cluster Segmentations Through Canonical CouplingsStuart Van Auken

An Attempt to Utilize Respondent Sex as a Moderator for Profiling Bank Card Users

Elizabeth C Hirschman, Warren S Blurnenfeld and Dwight Tabor

Consumer Attitudes and Gasoline Usage A Market Segmentation Study

David J Barnaby and Richard C Reizenstem

METHODOLOGY

Statistical Methods

On Multicollineanty and the Efficient Estimate of the Beta Coefficient of a Random

Coefficient Capital Asset Pricing Model

Son-Nan Chen and Cheng F Lee

An Iterative Approach to the Estimation of Variances m Linear Regression Models

James E Rcinmuth

Two Further Refinements of Distribution-Free AnalysisPatrick Shannon

Recent Developments in Simulation Techniques

Steady State Determination A Comparative AnalysisDonna S Koperski, Lloyd Rice and Belva J Cooley

The Repro Modeling Process An ApplicationStefan Feyock and Jack A Fuller

Determining Response Rates and Optimal Mail Survey Strategies with the Use of Computer Simulation

Alvin C Burns

Optimization of Multiple-Objective Computer Simulations A Nonlinear Goal Programming ApproachWilliam E Biles

New Directions in Sensitivity AnalysisInteractive Goal Programming Sensitivity Analysis

Lanny J Ryan and Conne BicklcyAn Approach for Sensitivity Analysis of Markov Chains

Kenneth R Gordon

Applied Business Forecasting — Methods, Problems, and Solutions

Forecasting Accuracy Pooled Versus Time-Scries Models

Susan A Simmons and Dalton h Brannen

An Algorithm for Basic Exponential-Smoothing with Data Adjusted for Seasonal VariationKenneth S Brown and Howard L Balsley

Application of an Iterative Procedure to Cope with Multicollineanty and Autocorrelation

in a Regression Model for Measuring Advertising Effectiveness

L Douglas Smith and John J Schwob, Jr

Evaluation of Data-Fitting Approaches

Simple Goodness-of Fit Tests of Normality Using Sample Moments

Erwin M Samga and William V Gehrlein

Utilizing the Exponential to Model a J-Shaped Distribution An Investigation of Possible Error

Betty J Whitten and M Michael Umble

Type II Errors in Chi-Square Tests

Norval F Pohl and San Yun W Tsai

Measurement Problems in Behavioral Studies

Conjoint Measurement of Sequential Elimination Models

Douglas R EmeryConstruct Validation A Conceptual and Empirical Examination

Mark W Dirsmim

Communahty Analysis in a Longitudinal Study of Consumer's Life SpaceArch G Woodside and William O Bearden

Applications of Multivariate Methods in Analysis of Judgmental ResponsesDriver Assessment of Hazard at a Traffic Intersection A Multidimensional Analysis of Decision Making

William Dellner and P Everett FergensonA Diehotomous Test of a Dichotomous Theory An Application of the Automatic Interaction

Detector (AID) Algorithm to Testing Herzberg's Two factor Theory of Job SatisfactionMichael J Stahl G C Saul Young, and Paul S Scoville

The Misleading Influence of Methods Variance When a Multitrait-Multimcthod Matrix Technique is Used

Norbert F Elbert and James Belohlav

Viii

Page 6: Annual Meeting of the American Institute for Decision ...J' I,*' V-' > **/ /./ TABLEOFCONTENTS Forward _This., .,, in is Aids IV ACCOUNTING Auditing and Control The Applicability

NON-PROFIT ADMINISTRATION

Productivity Measurement Systems for Overhead Services

Quality Measurement for Services 289

James C Hcrshauer William A Rueh and Lvcrett F Adam Jr

Productivity Measurement Systems for MIS 292

William T Morris

Management of Health Care Delivery OrganizationsAdoption of an HMO as in Innovation Some Unanticipated Findings 295

Mark M Monarty and M Venkatesan

Analysis of Outpatient Health Care Settings Using New Quantitative Techniques 298

Robert C Carlson John C Hershey and Dean H Kropp

Health Policy Research

A Multivariate Analysis of Physician Practice Locations University of Utah M D

Graduates Utah — Non Utah Practices 300

Collin J Watson and D James Croft

A Decision Theoretic Model for the Clinical Management of Diabetes Mellitus 303

Charles P Armstrong and Jerry Sanders

E-stabhshing the I evel of Service for an Fmergency Ambulance System 306

James A Fil/simmons

topics in Law Enforcement

I he Determination of an Appropriate Utilization Ratio for Policy Patrol Allocation 309

Lawrence D Vm and Brtxike Saladin

Resource Allocation and Control for State Patrols and Other Public Agencies 312

Samuel M Seward

An I eonomctnc Analysis of Crime Rales Clearance Rates and Lnfon.emc.nt Effort The

C dse of Houston Iexas 314

Dale O ( lonmgcr and I ester C Sartonus

Systems Approaches to Higher Education ManagementA Resource Planning Model for the Determination of Faculty Size and Student Admittance

targets in Institutions ol Higher I ducation 317

Francis Bruno and Lloyd A Swanson

Profitability Studies An Anathema of Higher Education 320

C Ihumus Innis

Lducutiimal I ndowment Fund Management A Systems Approach to Decision-Making 323

Carol Kovach

Natural Resources ManagementAn I xploratory Model for the Study of Wilderness Recreational Use Patterns —

Prerequisite for Successful Wilderness Quota Systems and Effective Wilderness Management 326

James Kraushaar

A Goal Programming Approach to Establishing Backcoutury Visitor Quotas 329

I Hillman Willis and Lanny J RyanConcern Toward the Energy Crisis Some Social-Psychological Correlates 332

C lint B lankersleyThe Impact of Automotive Safety Regulation on Automotive Lmissions — An Interactive Systems Simulation 334

Dennis J Kulonda

Projecting Student Enrollment

I he Fffcct of Potential Students Attitudes on Lnrollment Decisions at a Mid Western University 337

Albert C Hcmlein and Robert F KrampfAn Lnrollment Projection Model for a Large State Higher Education System 340

Barry Render and Gerald L Shawhan

A Stochastic Model for Admissions of New Students to an Academic Program 343

Robert H Holland and Fathi F Sokkar

The Decision Scientist in the Courtroom

The Decision Scientist in the Courtroom 346

Harvey Nussbaum and Charles W Gross

Regional and Local Planning

Multiple Regression Analysis in Assessment Modeling A New Approach347

Roger Gates Bob Brobst and Madhav SegalAn Lmpineal Analysis of Supply of and Demand for Residential Housing in Local Market 350

John r Nixon William F White and Betty Yantis

A Model for Lurly Warning of Major Discrepancies Between Supply and Demand in a Residential Housing Market 352

John F Nixon William r White and Betty Yantis

An Investigation of Community Problems in Relation lo Community Sstc for the State of Indiana 354

James Bclohlav and Norbert Libert

Resource Reallocation in an Academic Environment

Interdisciplinary Research — A Dilemma for University Central Administration 356

Borje O Saxberg William T Newell and Brian W Mar

Resource Allocation Within the University"'

Arthur J Keown and Bernard W Taylor III

The Determinants of Faculty Earnings and Changes in Faculty Earnings361

James A Dallon Thomas E Johnson Jr and David J Werner

ix

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OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT AND LOGISTICS

Inventory and Production PlanningAn Empirical Study of Aggregate Production Planning Theory 364

Ramzi S. Hakim and William B. Lee

Concomitants of Activity at an Organization's Boundaries 367

Richard Leifer

Using Mathematical Programming to Solve Quantity Discount Inventory 370

Neil B. Marks

Master Production SchedulingResolving Multiple Objectives in Master Production Scheduling 372

LeRoy Krajewski and John W. Bradford

The Effects of Managerial Decisions on Aggregate Cost and The Master Production Schedule 375

Paul Mangiameli and LeRoy Krajewski

Warehouse and Logistics Management Problems

Cost Reduction Opportunity in Shipment Consolidation: A Computer Simulation Approach,

378

Andrew W. Lai and Bernard J. La Londe

Productivity Analysis of Warehousing Operations 381

Thomas P. Cullinane and William E. Biles

A Warehouse Stock Selection Strategy for Minimizing Transaction Costs 384

John J. Kanel

Operations Management In Service Industries

A Model for the Determination of Optimum Fleet Size for a University Motor Pool 386

William W. Williams and Oscar S. Fowler

Labor Shift Scheduling with Labor and Facility Constraints: A Case Study of Teller Scheduling 389

Alan R. Raedels and Vincent A. Mabert

ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND DECISION MAKING

Administrative Experimentation as a Management Strategy

Management of Business Research: Evaluating Needs, Validating Results 392

Daniel E. Strayer and Lyle W. Lockwood

Administrative Experiment in Public Policy Development 395

Ardwin S. Libman and Roland G. Weiss

A Review of an Administrative Experiment in Organization Design: Some Lessons 398

Stephen D. Garrity

Bargaining Behavior

The Influence of Personal Control Beliefs on Bargaining Behavior and Outcomes in

Managerial Negotiations: An Experimental Study 401

David L. Ford, Jr. and John F. Baum

Final Offer vs. Conventional Arbitration as Modes of Conflict Management 404

Frederick A. Starke and William W. Notz

The Effects of Interpersonal Influence on the Truster's Dilemma to Expose or Guard One's Vulnerability 407

Jerald W. Young

Subjective Probabilities

Subjective Distribution Assessment and Information Level 409

William J. CorneySome Minimal Field Conditions For the Normal Empirical Bayes Estimator 412

Rajesh K. Kakar and John T. Sennetti

Comparison of Methods for Eliciting Finite Subjective Probabilities 414

Venon Wade and Ronald Yager

Objectives and Methods of Performance Appraisal: Current Status and Future DirectionsThe Basis for Evaluation in Performance Appraisal Systems: The Importance of Congruence 417

L. L. Cummings. The Use of Objective Performance Indicators in Performance Appraisal 418

Stephen J. Carroll

An Overview of Behavior-Based Methods of Performance Appraisal 421H. John Bernardin and Ray Boetcher

Job Satisfaction and Job DesignEmployee Satisfaction: A Negatively Skewed Distribution 424

Albert S. King and E. L. Plumlee

Equity Theory: Some Necessary Revisions of a Paradigm Theory 427

Mounir Badawy and H. J. ShapiroModerated Regression in Job Design Research: Some Issues and Answers 430

William S. Peters and Joseph E. Champoux

Cognitive Variables and Decision MakingThe Effects of Goal Conflict and Cue Congruency on Cognitive Conflict 433

Richard A. Cosier

Cognitive Conflict and Ecological Structure as Determinants of Decision Performance 436

.David Curry, Michael Menasco and Gerald L. Rose

Dimensional Complexity of Cognitive Structure: A Personality Trait in Decision Making 439David T. Wilson and Chin Tiong Tan

X

Page 8: Annual Meeting of the American Institute for Decision ...J' I,*' V-' > **/ /./ TABLEOFCONTENTS Forward _This., .,, in is Aids IV ACCOUNTING Auditing and Control The Applicability

Group Decision MakingInfluence of Deviants in Same and Mixed-Sex Decision Making Groups 442

Linda N. Jewell and H. Joseph Reitz

The Use of a Computer-Based Business Simulation Game to Investigate Role-Compatibilityon Group Decision-Making

,445

Betty Yantis and John E. Nixon

Multi-Attribute Utility Modelling

Modelling Multiatribute Decisions: Some Methodological Considerations 448

Philippe Caltin and Marc G. Weinberger

Investigation of the Use of Combination Rules in Consumer Information Processing 451James W. Gentry, Thomas L. Brown, and Terrence V. O'Brien

An Individual Level Analysis of the Summation Hypothesis in Expectancy Theory 454

Robert J. Solomon, Donald J. Messmer, and William W. Liddell

There's Nothing More Practical Than a Good Theory: A New Approach to Data Analysis 457

John Bassler and Gerrit Wolf

Organizational Decision Making

Compliance with Social Legislation Affecting Industry: A Preliminary Investigationof Decision Criteria 459

Kirk Downey and Charles R. Greer

Descriptive Models of Organizational Decision Processes in Hierarchical Organizations ,462

E. P. Winkofsky and N. R. Baker

Empirical Evidence for the Existence of a Social Welfare Function 465

Eli Yecheskel

Mathematical Programming and Decision MakingA Chance-Constrained Programming Approach to the Scaled-Bidding Problem 468

James M. Kelly, Thomas J. Hindelang, and Daniel L. White

A Vector Maximum Approach to the Aggregation of Expert Opinion 471

John J. Bernardo and James R. LangOn Determining the Most Robust Act: An Early Fathoming Technique 474

Stanley Schenkerman

Individual Behavior and Decisions

Extent of Information-Seeking in the Organizational Choice Process as a Function of Choice Conflict • • • .477

John E. Swan, Charles M. Fulrell, and Donald D. White

Sex Matching in Career Decisions .- 480

Mary Van Sell and Gerald L. Rose

Organizational Risk TakingDownside Risk in Incentive Contracting: A Decision Theoretic Framework 482

Duvid K. Gandhi

Explicit Risk Consideration in a Planning Model: An Empirical Investigation 485

Bruce McCarl. Tom Tice, and Lars Brink

Conflict and Organizational Behavior and Decision MakingA Model of Organizational Conflict 488

Mary Beth Beres and Stuart M. Schmidt

Dialectical Decision Process: Its Use in Faculty Personnel Actions 491

Paul C. NystromTiiward an Integrated Theory of Organizational Behavior and Performance — Summary of Some Initial Research 494

Michael D. Sherman and Herbert Moskowitz

Analytic Models in Organizational Decisions

A Field Comparison of Prospective Decision Analysis Methods 497

Paul C. Nutt and John M. Lowe III

Towards an Approach to Utilizing Theories of Implementation of Management Science/Operations Research 500

John C. Anderson and Ram Narasimhan

Leadership

Predicting Leader Behavior from a Measure of Behavioral Intent 503

A. G. Jago and V. H. Vroom

Types of Committees and How their Members are Chosen 506

Mary E. LippittIndividual Differences in Leadership Decision Making 509

Thomas E. Hill and Neal Schmitt

STRATEGY AND POLICY

Small Business EntrepreneurshipEntrepreneurial- Strategies in Foreign Trade 511

Karl H. Vesper and Kenneth A. \brhies

A Taxonomy of Entrepreneurial Entry Strategies >-514

Karl H. VesperClassification of Bankruptcy Petitioners 517

Robert Comerford

X1

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Implementing the Planning Process

Strategic Planning and Organization Size Within the Motor Freight Industry: An Empirical Study 520

Ernest A. Kallman and H. Jack ShapiroInterdependence, Corporate Planning and Aggregate Demand Forecasting in the Railroad Industry 522

Larry C. Peppers and Sufi M. Nazein

Some Useful Techniques for Implementing a Planning Process 525

Robert J. Graham

Issues in Business Strategy

Strategy as an Istrument of Change: A Contingency Approach 528

Y. Sankar

An Empirical Evaluation of Macro-Conscious Consulting "'

Anthony M. Akel and Frederick D. Greene

TOPIC TABLES-SESSION 15

Table 1 — AccountingDCF vs. ROI — Whal. Again? 534

Stephen F. Jablonsky and Mark W. Dirsmith

A Preliminary Analysis of the Effect of Time on Perceptions of the Relative Importanceof Selected Items of Accounting Information 535

Stephen L. Buzby

Comparative Forecasting Techniques Using Annual Sales Data 536

K. H. Chan, D. S. Wong, and J. C. HayyaPerformance Measurement: A Theoretical and Empirical Study 537

Norman D. Berman, Murray A. Cayley, and Barbara D. Merino

Table 2 — Finance

An Empirical Investigation of Holding Period Returns in the Commercial Banking Industry 538

T. Kohers and G. SimpsonThe Impact of AMEX Option Trading on the Risk Posture of Underlying Stocks 539

G. N. Naidu and Tiii Shin

Taking the Gambling Out of the Stock Market 540

Harvey M. Salkin, Barry Lefkowitz and David E. Williams

Yield to Maturity Deviations Resulting from the Bond Yield Approximation Formulation 541

Stanley Jacobs and Gerald E. Smolen

On the Interpretation of Efficient Frontier in Portfolio Analysis 542

Stanley Schenkenrmii

Table 3 — Marketing ManagementAn Empirical Study of Planning Strategies Among Small and Medium-Sized Manufacturing Firms 543

George Tesar and Harvey J. IglarshConsumer Reaction to Product Recall Remedies; An Experimental Investigation 544

Roger Kerin and Robert Peterson

A Behavioral Model for Improving Salesmen's Input to Marketing Information Systems 545

Christopher B. Kelson and Albert L. PageModeling Product Life Cycle: Stale of the Art 546

Rajiuder Arora

The Information Content of Television Advertising: A Cross Cultural and Longitudinal Study 547

Richard W. Pollay, Christina J. Fryer, and Judy Zaichowsky

Identifying the Characteristics of Environmentally Responsible Consumers through Discriminant Analysis 548

I. D. Menezes and S. Chandra

Table 4 — Academic Administration

A Predictive Model of Collegiate Load Factors 549Ross E, Azevedo

Simulation: An Aid to Educational Planning 550Robert J. Boldin

A Planning Approach for Sponsored Research in Universities 551John H. Grose

Tabic 5 — Methodological Formulatons of Public Sector IssuesSome Aspects of Modeling the Socio-Economic System of an Insular Region 551

Carl J. Vail, Jr,, Roy Chung and John Schick~

Table 6 — Operations Management and LogisticsInteractive Time Phased Reorder Planning Tor Purchasing Decisions

5S1John G. Carlson, Roger B. Glaser, and Richard Oilman

Material Requirements Planning and the Information Support System554

Stephen H. Goodman. John C. Henderson, and Michael ShowalterA Comparison of MRP Purchase Discoun! Procedures Using Dynamic Simulation

555Adley D. Hemphill and D. Clay Whybark

The Impact of Operating Environment on Lot Sizing Decisions^,

Joseph Biggs, Chan Halm, and Peter Pinto

xn

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lablc 7 — Organizational Behavior: Individual PerspectiveJob Design and Worker Responses A Multivariate Analysis

Phillip I 1 owry and William I Reif

I he Stability and Variability of Individual Preferences for Pay and Benefits An Fmpincal Upd

Roger A Kenn N Tredne Crandall and William J Lundstrom

The Job Selectrtin Decision An Experimental Assessment of Rating Criteria

Ralph F Catalanello William G Zikmund, and Steve M WegenerA Longitudinal Study of Organizational Climate and Leader Behavior

Michael Abelson William F Joyce and John W Sloeum Jr

Post Retirement Activity and Retirement Satisfaction

Karl Price Douglas Kimmel and James Walker

A Longitudinal Field Investigation of the Leader Reward Behavior and Subordinate

Satisfaction Relationships

Jerry A Wallin and Kent F Curran

Table 8 — Business Strategy and Polity Formulation

A Framework for Corporate Policy Decision Making

Lh Yeeheskcl

Low Level Management — An Important and Oflen Neglected Input to Company Policy

(Strategy and Policy Area)

Stephen R Jenner

Selecting Organizational Strategies Designs Which Maximize Market Planning Capacityor Mmimi/e Information Processing Costs

William H Money and John I Doutt

IOPIC TABLES — SESSION 29

lablc 1 — Finance

Some I manual I ffecls of Divestiture

John R Griffith

I he Risk Flee Rate and the Indenization of Dominating Capital Assets

Philip Horvath

A Note on a Rate of Return Index hquivalent to Net Present Value

Peter J AllunasopoulosAn Integrated Presentation of the Cost of Capital

C arl Sehwesei

lablc 2 — Management Information SystemsA Method ol Assessing the Impact of a Management Information System Upon User

Attitudes and Organizational Communication Processes

William H Money and J Randall Brown

Approaches to IS Analysis in Small Business

I/ak Benbasat and Albert S Dexter

MSA and Management Information SystemsJohn M Burnham

A Framework for MIS Research

A Milton Jenkins

Organizational Restructure for Improved MIS

Ralph H Spraguc Jr and Robert Doktor

Table 3 — Marketing at the Local Level

Brand Store Image Dyad in the Consumer Purchase Decision

H Robert Dodge and Sam Fullerton

A Multivariate Approach to Predicting the Vole of Undecided Voters

Donald Sciglimpaglia Catherine C Bentley and William J Lundstrom

An Application of Conjoint Analysis to the Investigation of Retail Store ImageMarc G Weinberger and Philippe Cattin

Marketing Information Systems in the Bdrtking Industry Design Requirements Associated

with the Application of Computer Graphics to Site Location Decisions

Robert R Bell

Use of a Retail Gravitation Model as a Marketing Mix Decision Making Tool for the

Small Retailer

Rebecca H Holman H Lee Mathews and Richard A Trella

estimating Selling Prices of Houses

Edward H Robb and Fred W Moigan Jr

lablc 4 — MethodologyA Partitioning Algorithm for Goal Programming

Jeffrey L Arthur and A Ravindran

Optimization of the Fixed-Charged Problem with Multiple ObjectivesSang M Lee Richard L Morns, and Lon Franz

A Conversational Integer Goal Programming Documentation and DescriptionW Thomas Lin and Israel Vela

Modifications to Facilitate Use of the Goal Programming Computer Program Output

Lanny J Ryan and Donald F Rossi n

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Table 5 — Academic Administration

An Operational Probability Sampling Model for Controlling the Cost and Reducingthe Non-Sampling Error of S8S

James M. Kraushaar

Administrative Uses of Student Evaluation of College Instruction 589

Donald W. Miller. Sandra Brokaw, and Farouk Shaaban

Marketing Higher Education in a Buyers Market: Implications for Administration 590

Lonnie L. Ostrom and John L. Schlactcr

Planning for the Future in Colleges of Business: An Approach '91

John L. Schlatter and Ronald L. Tatham

Standards of Financial Reporting for Colleges and Universities <i92

Aida A. H. Shekib. Farouk Shaaban. and Donald Miller

Tkble 6 — Selected Tbpics in Public Sector ManagementTowards Greater Productivity in the Public Sector

S. John MontgomeryThe Reactions to Supervisory Reward Behavior in a Public Agency 594

Jerry A. Wallin and Michael H. Peters

MBO in the Public Sector: A Conceptual Examination '•

Mark W, Dirsmith and Stephen F. JablonskyPatterns of Management Innovation *

Daniel Robey and M. M. Bakr

Work Attitudes of Municipal Employees as Related to Technology and Leadership Processes 597

John M. Jermier. Leslie J. Berkes. Louis W. Fry, and Steve Kerr

Tabic 7 — Operations Management and LogisticsMulti-Item Scheduling in Inventory/Repair Systems with Reflection Programming: An Overview 598

W. Steven DemmyAllocation of Interstage Storage Between Machines which Work at Random Rates 599

Theordore J. Sheskin

Some Operating Characteristics of Unpaceu" Lines 6(X)

J. F. Kotlas and H. S. Lau

Implementation of Endogenous Due Date Assignment Methods in Dynamic Job Shop Environments 601

Nabil R. Adam and Julius Surkis

Stochastic PERT Network Analysis — The First Twenty Years 602

Robert S. Sullivan and Jack Hayya

Table 8 — Decision Making ConceptsDecision Behavior with Hierarchial Multi-Level Value Systems 603

Sakari T. Jutila

Linear Orderings Over Fuzzy Preferences in a Social Welfare Setting 604Earlc Steinberg and Dan Rinks

Fuzzy Sets :605

Frederick Francis NewpcckThe Relationship Between Personality Factors and Information Processing Style 606

Robert E. Miller and George Beason

Organizational Politics: Perspectives from Attribution Theory 607Dennis J. Moberg

TOPIC TABLES — SESSION 40

Table 1 — Finance

A Simulation Approach to Managing Foreign Exchange in Multinational Companies 608Raj Aggarwal

Random Walk Analysis of the Price of Sugar 609

Philip R. Swensen and Peter M. Ellis

Depreciation Tax Shields for Multiple Assel Accounts 610

Gary Kundey

Tfeble 2 — Innovative Education

Rcmdiation of Deficiencies in High School Mathematics Preparation in a Freshman College Course 611Charles P. Armstrong and Everett T. Harris

Learning Objectives in Marketing: A Classroom Experiment 612F. Robert Dwycr, Joanne M. Klebba, and William Rudclius

Teaching the Basic Management Course — An Untraditional Tradition Method613

Edward Marlow and Peter Couch

Management Information Systems: An Approach lhat Satisfies Industry and Acadcmia 614John C. Starretl

How to Handle Confounding in Educational Evaluation6U

Charles Portwood and William E. Remus

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Tabic 3 — Management Information SystemsSelection Criteria for Determination of a Calculation Technique for Predictive Managerial Planning 616

Roger L HayenAn Investigation of the Application of Top Down Design and Structured Programming m Organizations 617

Roger L Hayen

Planning for Automatic Data Processing Equipment Replacement 618

Andrew C Rucks

Data Processing Security A Management Viewpoint 619

August W Smith

Table 4 — Marketing Research MethodologyBehavonal Intention and Dimensionality 620

James Belohlav and Michael Dean

Attitudinal and Normative Determinants of Consumer Decision-Making 621

Myron Glassman

The Product Mix Decision A Further Step in Product Portfolio Analysis 622

Robert A Swerdlow and Frank M Tiernan

Preposlcnor Analysis of Optimum Research Design Parameters 623

W M CampionAn Investigation of the Rokeach Value Survey for Applications to Cross Cultural Research 624

J Michael Munson

A Factor-Analytic Comparison of the Usage of Quantitiative Techniques in MarketingPraetioners vs Academicians 625

Subhash C Jam and Edwin C Haekleman

Table 5 — MethodologyControl Groups and Data Banks Assessing the Impact of Tonsillectomies 626

Leslie L Roos Jr Noralou P Roos and Paul D Hentelcff

Alterations of the Motor Vehicle Mortality Pattern Since the Energy Crisis 627

Peter M Ellis

Developing a Conditional Markov Process to Predict Levels of Air Pollution 628

M Michael Umblc and Rodney L Carlson

Tible 6 — Health Services Research

Interorgamzational Cooperation A Research Direction and Some Preliminary Results 629

John R Schcrmerhorn Jr

Modeling the Emergency Medical Service System and Us Components 630

Michael J MaggardThe Economic and Financial Implications of Family Practice Residency Programs 631

Michael D Joehnk Robert E Allen and Ronald W Spahr

Planning Health Care Facilities for the Aged Using Administrators Perceptions of Consumer Needs 632

Arun K Jain Vijay Mahajan and Naresh Malhotra

The Use of Demographic Variables to Differentiate Between and Predict Users and

Non Users of Birth Control A Discriminant Analysis 633

Knslofcr C Neslund and Lou Villadsen

The Perverse Effects of Cost Reimbursement on Efficient Delivery of Health Care A Simulation 634

Frank R Keller and Claude L Simpson Jr

lablc 7 — Organizational Behavior- Organizational PerspectiveLower Management's Decisions Based on the Final Decision Maker s Objectives and Priorities 635

Pembroke Rces

Organizational Conflict and Uncertainty 636

Gcrnt Wolf

Spatial Physical Lnvironmem on Work Group Interaction 637

Bonita Melchcr

Organization Development with the Scanlon Plan A Comparative Study of Success 638

J Kenneth White

A Comparison of Feedback Constructs 639

Martin M Grcller

Author s Index 659

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Additions, fable of Contents.,.*

I he Role of Information in Decision Calculus Models MO

Gert Assmus

Tow aid Models of Disobedience' 643

A N Azim Janice Hanna Glenn Boseman

Purchasing Productivity Measurement and Control 645

Phillip Carter Robert Monczka

Administrative Processing Cycles and the Design of MIS 647

Alan L Lhason

A Performance Evaluation ol the 22 Largest Commercial Bank Holding Companies 648Ravi Kamath

Lease Financing Decision or Indecision 6M

Per B Mokkelbost

I he Optimum Combination of Active Arms and Organized Reseives 6S2

George f Neimanis

A Management Information System to I acihute the Functioning ol a CBf Program 655Charlotte Neuhauser

An Analysis ol temporal Data Aggregation Inlluence in the Current Hfects Model 656

Pieire Windal, Doyle Weiss

'While these papers were leeeived late, the punter's schedule allowed lor then inclusion

XVI