1988 PROCEEDINGS

1988 Annual MeetingDecision Sciences Institute

November 21-23, 1988

Las Vegas, Nevada

VOLUME 1

AccountingDecision Analysis and Statistics

Decision Support Processes

DSS/AI/Expert SystemsFinance

ForecastingInnovative Education

Management Information Systems

Ernest C. Houck, Proceedings Coordinator

Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University-

Bernard W. Taylor, III, Program Chair

Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

UB/TTB Hannover 89119 218 488

CONTENTS-VOLUME 1

Instructional Innovation Award Finalists (sponsored by Alpha Iota Delta, Business Publications, Inc./Richard D. Irwin,Inc., and the Decision Sciences Institute)

1 A Role Playing Approach to Teaching Systems Analysis and DesignPeter J. Kirs

4 Computer Integrated Manufacturing: Development of the Educated User

Charles T. Mosier and Beheruz N. Sethna

7 Teach-Factory: Real Time Decision Making for Production and Operations Management Students

Robert J. Schlesinger

11 Ninth Annual Case Workshop for New Case Writers

Joseph C Latona, William E. Fulmer, Thomas Urban, and K. Mark Weaver

12 Fourteenth Annual Decision Sciences Institute Workshop: Cases in the Decision Sciences

Joseph C Latona, Anthony Akel, William Naumes, K. Mark Weaver, and Ronald M. Zigli

13 Discussion Group for Department Chairs

C. Dwight Tabor, Jr.

ACCOUNTING

14 An Investigation of the Effect of Statutory Tax Rate Changes on Charitable Contributions Using Panel Data

C. P. Kartha and John D. Marquardt

16 The Use of Financial Planning Languages in AccountingSidney Baxendale, William Geary, and Germain Boer

Audit Research: Internal and External

17 Perceptions of Auditor Independence: Institutional Holdings and Curtailments of Purchases of Nonaudit Services

Alan K. Ortegren and Thomas E. King20 The Effects of Management Level on EDP Auditor Consensus

Raymond M. Landry, Jr., Woodrow D. Richardson, and Patricia M. Fandt23 Perceptions of Healthcare Internal Auditors about Power, Conflict and Risk

Thomas A. Gavin, Edson G. Hammer, Mohammed Ahmadi, and William Bertin

Not-for-Profit and Utilities

26 Cost Accounting Can Support Just-In-Time in Public Utilities

Ronald F. Helbling and John Y. Lee

29 The Information Content of Governmental Annual Reports: A Contemporaneous Price Reaction ApproachRobert W. Ingram, K. K, Raman, and Earl R. Wilson

30 An Empirical Investigation of Factors Affecting the Timeliness of Reporting by MunicipalitiesPeggy D. Dwyer and Earl R. Wilson

Topic Table: Management Accounting and Auditing Potpourri31 Cost-Volume-Value Analysis under Uncertainty

Jeong-Bon Kim31 Some Comments on EOQ Formula: Is It Valid under Inflationary Conditions

Surendra P. Agrawal and Satish Mehra

31 Protecting the Management Accountant

Gerald H. Lander, Michael T. Cronin, and Alan Reinstein

31 Concepts for Management Accountants: Reflection of the Market Mechanism?

Charles J. Pineno

Persuasion, Gameplay, and Social Responsibility in Accounting32 A Persuasion Cycle of Developing and Processing Accounting Information

Mohamed E. Bayou35 Gameplay in the Capital Budgeting Setting

Paul Munter, Don W. Finn, and Tommy Moores

37 Evaluating the Impact of Social Responsibility Disclosure on Investment Decisions of Institutional Investors: A Field

ExperimentHai Yap Teoh and Godwin Y. Shiu

Hi

International Accounting I

41 Harmonization and the European Community: The West German ResponseDonald E. Wygal and James Volpi

44 Soviet Accounting and the New ChallengeF. K. AINajjar

Topic Table: Accounting—Techniques and Applications47 Unifying Accounting and Office Information Systems

Saeed Roohani and Kirk P. Arnett

47 Overhead Cost Control in the New Manufacturing Environment

Lakshmi U. Tatikonda and Rao J. Tatikonda47 Computerized Cash Budgeting for Auto Dealerships

N. Ahadiat and M. Wright47 Accounting Practice and Its Impact on Business Operations: The Case of Mortgage Banking

Howard G. Smith and Warren Matthews

47 A Sensitivity Analysis of the Markowitz Portfolio Model

Chin Wei Yang and Antonio Que

Empirical Tests of Theories in Experiments48 The Use of Participation and Supervision for Information Eliciting in Budgetary Control

Mawdudur Rahman

50 An Expectancy Theory Examination of Motivation and Budgeting: Some Preliminary FindingsLynn Griffin

53 The Effects of State Risk and Controllability Filters on Compensation Contract Choice and Performance

Michael D. Shields, Chee W. Chow, and O. Ray Whittington

International Accounting II

54 Accounting in Europe: The West German ExperienceF. K. AINajjar and William Volz

57 Dumping: Managerial Accounting ConsiderationsRobert Capettini, Feraidoon (Fred) Raafat, and Mehdi Salehizadeh

60 The Impact of the Quality of Information on Risk Analysis for Multinational Investments

Carl B. McGowan, Jr. and Henry W. Collier

Topic Table: Accounting Theory Topics63 A Test of the Usefulness of the New SFAS 90-Statement of Cash Flows

Felix Amenkhienan, Khalil Torabzadeh, and William Bertin

63 Can Accounting Redundancy Be Eliminated?

Roger K. Doost

63 A Conceptual Model of the Basic Accounting Process

John W. Rettenmayer63 An Integrative Approach to the Concept of Materiality

Alan G. Mayper and Barbara D, Merino

63 Paradigms in Accounting TheorySurendra P. Agrawal

Corporate Financial Management64 The Auditor's Impact on the Decision of Management Regarding Tender Offers

James W. Greenspan and Winston T. Shearon

66 Capital Budgeting Practices: A Survey of Corporate Use

Thomas Klammer, Bruce Koch, and Neil Wilner

70 The Effect of Firm Characteristics on Management Accounting SystemsRussell F. Briner, Frank A. Wiebe, and Robert C. Elmore

Accounting Education

73 A Curriculum-wide Approach to Integration of Computer in Accounting EducationVasant Raval

74 Development of the International Accounting Curriculum

Rocco R, Vanasco

79 Some Experimental Evidence on the Effect of Writing Assignments on Accounting Student Performance and

Attitudes

David E. Stout, Donald E. Wygal, and Marvin Darter

Topic Table: Tax Analysis and Decision Making82 Recent Developments Concerning the Tax Classification of Hybrid Securities

Paul J. Robertson

IV

82 Analysis of Costs/Benefits of Deferred Compensation Plans after TRA '86

Karen A. Fortin and Sharon M. Moody82 The Corporate AMT and Depreciation Methods after the TRA of 1986

Kathleen Smith, Thomas Davies, and David Moen

82 Tests of the Relationships between Legal Complexity and Tax Return Reporting Errors

Susan B. Long and Judyth A. Swingen

Capital Markets Research

83 Some Empirical Evidence on Beta

Il-woon Kim

85 Real Smoothing and Costing Bias

Linda M. Marquis, John J. Surdick, and Wallace R. Wood

88 The Time-Series Behavior and Informational Content of Selected Cash Flow Variables

Rudy Jacob and Seth Grossman

Corporate Financial Reporting92 Voluntary Adoption of Expensing R&D

Frank H. Selto, Roderick D. Masimba, and Steven F. Cahan

95 Investor Assessment of Earnings per Share: A Question of Quality and ComparabilityDan R. Ward and Suzanne Pinac Ward

98 Accounting for Executive Stock Options: Compensation Expense MaterialityTaylor W. Foster, III, Paul R, Koogler, and Don Vickrey

Topic Table: Professional Accounting Firms' Surveys101 A Survey of Personal Computer and Expert Systems Usage by Small and Medium-Sized CPA Firms

Anthony T, Barbera

101 CPA's as Financial Planners: A Survey of Current Computer UsageWilliam Brunsen

101 A Goal Programming Model for Aggregate Human Resource Planning in a CPA Firm

Jonathan Burton, MaryAnne Atkinson, and Avijit Banerjee101 The Separate Constructs of Job Satisfaction and Communication Satisfaction for Certified Public Accountants

Terry Gregson101 Accounting Practitioners' Perceptions of the Impact of Changes in the Uniform CPA Examination on Accounting

Education

Ali M. Sedaghat and Charles L. Martin, Jr.

DECISION ANALYSIS AND STATISTICS

102 Characterizing a Nuclear Waste Site: A Logical Framework for Allocating Resources

Rex V. Brown

105 Integrating Quality and Productivity Concepts into Business Statistics Courses

David M. Levine

Decision Analysis106 A Comprehensive Model for Decision Making under Risk of Deaths among the Public

Jayavel E. Sounderpandian109 Subjective Probability Estimation Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Irwin Greenberg

Topic Table: Topics in Statistical Theory112 On Characterizations of the Exponential Distribution Based on Record Values

M. Ahsanullah

112 A Characterization of Pareto Distribution and Its Application to Economics

K. Thirugnanasambanthan112 Location of Distribution Centers: Estimation of a Multiplicative Model

Z. Y. Khairullah and V. Pandit

112 The K-Sample Smirnov Test: Power in the Presence of Kurtosis

Henry David Crockett, Mary E. Eakin, and Mary M. Whiteside

112 Choosing the Cost Function for the "Best" Linear Prediction Model

Amaresh Das

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Sampling113 Issues and Advances in Randomised Response Techniques

Jamshid C. Hosseini and Robert L. Armacost

116 Randomized Response Sampling with Continuous Randomizing Distributions: Theoretical Derivations with a Field

SurveyLeRoy A. Franklin

119 Potential Variation in the Sample Size Requirements: Results from Computer SimulationsArthur J. Adams and Ronald E. Shiffler

Statistical Quality Control I

122 A Model to Correct Inspection Errors in Single Sampling Plan

Cheickna Sylla and Colin G. Drury125 Robustness Properties of Sequential Hypothesis Tests

Thomas P. McWilliams

128 Item-by-Item Sampling Plans Using Hypergeometric Probabilities

Hassan Mirshah and J. Keith Ord

Statistical Methods I

132 A Study of the Successive Bayesian Procedure in the Classification of Time-Dependent Observations

Jung Jin Lee

135 A Non-Parametric Empirical Bayes Decision Function for Mean Life

Ashok K. Singh, Anita Singh, and William J. Zimmer

138 A Watson Test of Inverse Gaussianness

Rick L. Edgeman and Robert C. Scott

Topic Table: Statistical Applications141 Ah- Quality as a Decision Factor in Industrial Location Theory

David C. Chou

141 A Review and Applications of Statistical Methodologies Appropriate for Evidence in Age Discrimination LitigationMark P. Hartley and B. Perry Woodside

141 Time Series Analysis of the Caribbean Basin Initiative for Selected Countries

Diego Salazar and Allen H. Vargas141 Modeling the Lead-Time Demand Distribution by a General Autoregressive and Moving Average Demand Process

Bong-Geun An, Min-Chiang Wang, and Stergios B. Fotopoulos

Statistical Quality Control II

142 Economic Models for a Multi-Characteristic Screening Procedure

Kwei Tang and Jen Tang145 Control Charts for Exponentially Distributed Variables

David W. Pentico

148 Statistical Quality Control: Some New FindingsJay Varzandeh and Kamvar Farahbod

Statistical Methods II

151 The Limited Robustness of LAV Regression Estimators

Louis W. Glorfeld and Thomas W, Jones154 A Mean Squared Error Evaluation of Three Correlation Induction Strategies Useful in the Optimization of Simula¬

tion Models

Joan M. Donohue, Ernest C. Houck, and Raymond H. Myers

Subjective Probability157 Nonlinear Probability Functions: Evidence, Implications and Measurement

William F. Webster

160 Chances and Degrees of Belief: The Specification of Weak Statistical Evidence with Belief Functions

Ralph Friedmann

Topic Table: Topics in Decision Making163 Sensitivity Analysis in the Bayesian Approach Decision Making

Faizul Huq and Someswar Kesh

163 The Bathtub Curve and Competing Risks

Barbara J. Bulmnhn

163 Optimal Determination of the Sample Size for Hypothesis Tests Concerning the Mean of a Normal Distribution

Neil B. Marks

163 A Comparative Study of Variance Component Estimation Methods Used in Business ApplicationsGeorge A. Marcoulides

VI

Time Series Analysis and Applications164 Statistical Procedures for Estimating Reorder Point with Correlated Inventory Demands

Min-Chiang Wang, Hamid Bahari-Kashani, and Chung Chen

167 Forecasting Fertility with ARIMA and MARMA

Eileen Brown, Iver E. Bradley, and Susan A. Chesteen

170 Productivity Decline and R&D Expenditure: A Causal AnalysisMawdudur Rahman and A. R. Chowdhury

Topic Table: Topics in Multivariate Analysis and Simulation

171 Bayes Rules for Testing Homogeneity of Mean Life for Exponential PopulationsA. K. Singh, A. Pandey, and W. J. Zimmer

171 Multivariate Analysis of Variance without the Assumption of Independent Vector Observation

Robert Pavur

171 Dynamic Time WarpingRoger E. Hoffman and David B. Hoffman

171 Comparison of M/G/C Performance with M/M/C and M/G/l Service Nodes

Jerry P. Place

DECISION SUPPORT PROCESSES

Strategic Problem Solving172 Factors Conditioning the Use of Formulation Tactics in Strategic Decision Making

Paul C. Nutt

175 The Role of the Complexity and Goal Dimensions of Problem Context on Problem Categorization: Design Implica¬tions for Decision Support

Donna F. Davis and Donald L. Davis

178 Matching Decision Support Systems to Different Strategic Decision Making Modes

Roy Glen

181 Tutorial: Comprehensive Situation Mapping for Problem Framing, Expert Systems and Strategy AnalysisWilliam Acar

Minimizing Cognitive Shortcomings182 Decision-Making Heuristics, Biases, and Context Effects: The Impact of Cognitive Style

Gerald E. Evans and James Riha

185 Information Load, Decision Quality and Intolerance of AmbiguityKamal M. El-Sheshai

186 Computer Supported Information Load Reduction

Morag I. Stewart and James C. Hershauer

Improving Group Decision Making189 The Empirical Establishment of the Component Characteristics of Effective Decisions

A. J. Waltz and Pamela J. Masten192 Experimental Evaluation of Nominal Groups with Dichotomous Points of View

A, Davant Bullard and Thomas H. Whalen

195 Group Decision Support Systems for Multiple Objective Problems: An Empirical StudyPeri H. Iz and M. Tawfik Jelassi

Computer-Based Support Tools

198 The Knowledge-Based Information Presenter: An Intelligent DSS Interface

Merrill E. Warkentin

201 Managerial Problem Dissolution & Hypertext TechnologyLeonidas C. Charalambides

DSS/AI/EXPERT SYSTEMS

Requirements Definition in DSS Development204 Equivocality Resolving Aids for DSS Requirements Determination: An Empirical Study

Bijan Fazlollahi

207 A Notational Framework for Part-Automating DSS Requirements Analysis and DevelopmentBay Arinze

210 The Relationship between User Involvement and Decision Support System Success

Marianne M. Hill

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213 DSS and Expert Systems Courses in Business: Curriculum and Teaching Issues

Laurence J. Moore

Topic Table: Development of Expert Systems214 Microcomputer-Based Expert Systems

Vivek Shah and Roy Martin

214 An Examination of Potential Problems in the Development Process of Expert SystemsBo Kai Wong and Lawrence K. L. Kwok

214 Synergy Between Rule-Based Systems and Database SystemsDavid Yen, H. L. Tang, and Sooun Lee

214 Integrated Intelligent Expert Systems for Decision SupportDaniel T. Lee

215 Integration of Expert Systems with Computer-Based Information SystemsEfraim Turban

216 New Directions in Modeling UncertaintyNancy Green Hall and Thomas H. Whalen

Modeling Frameworks for DSS

217 Toward a Vocabulary for the Organization of Model Management Issues

Susan Athey and Carol Brown

220 A Framework for Modeling in Strategy Analysis: Rationale for Computer Simulation

William Acar and Vijay V. Raghavan223 Decision Automata: Towards a Theoretical Foundation of Decision Support Systems

Chen-Hua Chung

Expert Systems and Management Science Models

226 A Knowledge-Based Approach to LP Problem Formulation

Margaret M. Sklar, Roger Alan Pick, and James R. Evans

229 Integrating Expert Systems with Management Science Models

Hung-Lian Tang, Chi-Chung Yen, and Sooun Lee

232 Selecting Multivariate Techniques: A Logic-Based ApproachLakshminarayana R. Talluru and Vedat Akgiray

Topic Table: Expert System Applications235 Using an Inference Engine to Support Strategic Systems Planning

Edward J. Szewczak235 Fuzzy Logic Foundations for a Knowledge-Based Financial Ratio Analysis System

Fred J. Ganoe and Thomas H. Whalen

235 An Expert Systems Application to the Reservations Field

Jack Fuller

235 Assessing Expert Systems Applications: A Case Study in Real Estate

Ming-Te Lu and Steven P. Mooney235 Improving Water Demand Forecast with an Expert System

Tomasz R. Wielicki

Implementation/Evaluation/Maintenance of DSSs

236 An Ex Ante Evaluation Model for a Decision Support System Generator

Chung Kim

239 Risky Shift in the Implementation of a Decision Support System: An Experimental InvestigationShailendra C. Palvia

242 The Maintenance of Models by End Users in Model Management SystemsWilliam D. Hnseman and David L. Munro

Expert Database Systems245 Some Advances in Database Management Software for Decision Support Systems

Ronald Dattero, Richard G. Ramirez, Kathleen Moser, and Joobin Choobineh248 Expert Database Systems: A Conceptual Mapping to Knowledge-Based Decision Support Systems

Jungduck Kim and Joobin Choobineh

251 A Prototype Expert System for Information Retrieval

Daniel E. O'Leary

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DSS Applications254 A Decision Support System (DSS) for Information System (IS) Development under Uncertainty

M. Anvari, B. J. deBeaupre, D. S. Kira, M. I. Kusy, and D. Murray257 A DSS for Ambulance Allocation and Scheduling

Joanna R. Baker and Robert T. Sumichrast

259 A Decision Support System for the Dynamic Selection of Manufacturing Locations within the United States

Peter Haug and M. Tawfik Jelassi

Issues in Expert System Development262 The Role of the Systems Analyst as a Component in Expert System Development

Kathleen Mykytyn, Peter P. Mykytyn, Jr., and M. K. Raja265 An Empirically Derived Taxonomy for Expert System Applications

Anthony Stylianou, Greg Madey, and Robert Smith

268 Impact of Expert Systems Technology on Programmer/Analyst Job SecurityArun Rai and Sandra Grassman

Knowledge Engineering271 Using Statistical Methods to Guide Knowledge Acquisition in Artificial Intelligence

George A. Marcoulides

274 Man-Machine Interface Issues in the Acquisition of Knowledge from End-Users

Lakshminarayana R. Talluru and Vedat Akgiray277 Knowledge Engineering Using STROBE: Structured Observation of the Expert's Environment

Merrill E. Warkentin, Julie E. Kendall, and Kenneth E. Kendall

Expert System Applications in P/OM

280 Intelligent Simulation Environment for Manufacturing ManagementIrma Angulo and Reza Torkzadeh

283 The Expert Systems—Robotics Connection

Donna M. Schaeffer and Efraim Turban

286 The Use of a Decision Tree Approach with Expert Systems in Turnover ForecastingSandra J. Hartman, Sathiadev Mahesh, Rodger Griffeth, and Peter W. Horn

Decision Support in an MCDM Environment

289 Knowledge-Based Systems: A Renaissance for Normative Multi-Criteria Decision Models?

Steven Breslawski and Gayle Yaverbaum

292 Group Decision Support Systems: An Essential Tool for Resolving Organizational Conflicts

Hyun B. Eom, Sang M. Lee, and Eui-Ho Suh

Topic Table: DSS Development and Application Issues

295 Computer-Integrated Manufacturing System as an Integrated DSS and Organizational Structure

Asghar Sabbaghi295 A Survey of Business Usage of Model Based Decision Support Systems Software

A. K. Aggarwal295 The Role of Hypertext in Decision Support Systems

Robert P. Minch

295 An Extended Decision Support System Framework: Integrating a Simulation SubsystemMasood Badri, Donna F. Davis, and Donald L. Davis

295 Group Decision Support for Problem Solving: Some Experimental Results

Margaret Holmes and M. K. Raja

DSS and Expert System Applications in Accounting and Finance

296 An Intelligent Decision Support System for Financial PlanningWilliam L. Ashley

298 A Trader's Workstation

Kirk Kandt and Paul Yuenger302 Decision Support Systems and Expert Systems: The Role of the User as System Builder

Philip L. Powell and Con Connell

Managerial Issues in IS Development and Implementation306 Resolving Equivocality: An Expert Systems Approach to Data Based DSS

Dianna D. Wagner309 Executive Information Systems: Issues in Development and Implementation

M. K. Raja312 The Effects of Ambiguity, Completeness, and Experience on Manager's Performance

Dale H. Shao, Brian M. Schott, Thomas H. Whalen, and Nancy Green Hall

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FINANCE

Topic Table: Current Topics in Finance

315 Multivariate Analysis of Commercial Paper RatingsL. G. Perry and T. P. Cronan

315 Enhancing Utilization of and Satisfaction with Access to Financial Databases

Kirk P. Arnett and Larry R. White

315 Do Industry-wide Net Monetary Positions Matter for Inflation Hedging?Rosita P. Chang, Blair M. Lord, and S. Ghon Rhee

315 The Value of Information for Return ForecastingDonald J. Houtakker

Topic Table: Financial Institutions

316 Support System for FSLIC's Intervention Decision in Managing S&Ls

Suresh Tadisina, Nanda K. Rangan, and Arkalgud Ramaprasad316 Risk Factor Models of Failure of Thrift Institutions: Empirical Evidence

A. F. Thompson, Prasad Medury, Anju Ramjee, and Balasubramani Ramjee316 Model for Risk Rating of Loans for Quality Review

Lai C. Chugh and Rama S. Koundinya316 S&L Security Price Adjustments Concurrent with FASB Deliberations over the Treatment of the Special FHLMC

Stock Dividend

Taylor W. Foster, III, M. P. Dillaway, and Don W. Vickrey

Finance, Football, and Wagering317 An Examination of the Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor

Thomas M. Krueger, William F. Kennedy, and David L. Mullis

Topic Table: Current Issues in Finance

320 Optimal Smoothing: An Application for Working Capital ManagementPeter M. Ellis and Alan A. Stephens

320 Cost Efficiency among Electric Cooperatives, 1980-86

C. L. Walker and F. Ghazanfari

320 The Impact of Depreciation on Working CapitalGeorge J. Costouros and William L. Ashley

320 Decision Tools, Financial Markets, and the Economic ObjectivesKashi Nath Tiwari

320 An Examination of the Effects of Debt Extinguishment through Defeasance on Shareholder Wealth

Edwin H. Duett and Richard M. Robinson

Topic Table: Topics in Investment

321 Testing the Efficiency of Horse RacingKen Rhoda, Gerald Olson, and Jack Rappaport

321 Toward Non-Beta Measurement of Portfolio Performance

Chang-tseh Hsieh

321 The Effect of the 1986 Tax Reform Act on the Price Behavior of Tax-Exempt Bonds

Khalil Torabzadeh and R. Wayne Saubert

321 The Effect of Volatility on Changes in the Closing Price of the S&P 100 Stock Index

Donald R. Williams and R. C, Bunger321 Interest Rate Risk Immunization Using Duration Vector Approach: An Application to Tax Exempt Mutual Funds

Balance Sheets

Omar Benkato, Mahmoud Haddad, and Musa Essayyad

Investments and Corporate Finance

322 Operating Risk, Asset Characteristics, and Corporate Debt PolicyKee H. Chung

325 Tax Law Changes and Adjustable Rate Preferred Stock Yields

Thomas Berry and John Houston

328 Returns to Stockholders of Firms Announcing Divestment in South Africa

William J. Bertin, Lisa Vitatoe, Khalil M. Torabzadeh, and Thomas A. Gavin

bpics in Finance

331 Capital Market Reactions to Large Bank Failures

Shalini E. Perumpral and W, Lewis Young333 Merger Gains to Acquired Firms: A Further Investigation

M. H. Sarhan, A, T. Sadhwani, and A. S. Anderson

336 A Comparison of Weak Form Efficiency Measures of the Major American Stock ExchangesThomas Pencek and Thomas Kohers

Financial Instruments

339 The Effects of New Issues on the Prices of Seasoned General Obligation Municipal Bonds

Earl R. Wilson and David Gotlob

342 An Empirical Analysis of Convertible Preferred Stock PricingNicolas Gressis, Vincent Yen, and Albert Lew

344 Determinants of the Risk Structure of Interest Rates for New Industrial Bond IssuesRonald W. Melicher and Patrick A. Hays

Investments and Portfolio Theory348 An Explanation of the Performance of Value Line's Stock Rankings: A New Evidence

Denis Boudreaux, Theodor Kohers, and Philip Boudreaux

351 The Buy-and-Hold Implementation Bias in the Trading Rule Test

Jimmy D. F. Chen and Joseph K. Chung354 Portfolio "Window Dressing" and End-of-Quarter Stock Performance

Thomas V. Schwarz, Leonard J. Kazmier, and Kun-Mao Chen

Topic Table: International Finance and Other Topics357 Multinational Corporations' Investment Decisions and Political Turmoil

K. Fatehi-Sedeh and M. H. Safizadeh

357 Exchange Control and Economic Development: A Case Study of the People's Republic of China

M. Anaam Hashmi

357 The Use of Country Risk Rating Services as an Aid to International Lenders in Evaluating Country Lending Limits

Kenneth R. Gordon and Michael Palmer

357 A Study of Foreign Stocks Traded on Wall Street

Allen Anderson

357 Causes of Durable and Nondurable U.S. Manufacturing Payment Practices

Brian Belt and Stephen DeLurgio

Current Issues in Finance

358 Intra-Day Arbitrage Opportunities in Interbank Foreign Exchange and Eurocurrency Markets

S. Ghon Rhee and Rosita P. Chang361 On the Timing and Impact of Dividend Change and Earning Announcements

Henry R. Oppenheimer and Terry E. Dielman

364 Trading Rule Effects on the Results of Market Efficiency Tests—A Comparative Test of Several Widely Used TradingRules

Jimmy D. F. Chen

Investments and the Securities Markets

367 Anomalies in the Return Generating Process: Theory and Evidence Concerning the Small Firm Effect

Burton F. Schaffer

370 Overreaction Hypothesis and Daily Price Correlations

Glenn N. Pettengill373 Rational Expectation Hypothesis and the Weekend Effect in the London Stock Exchange

Bahram Adrangi, Richard D. Gritta, and Garland Chow

FORECASTING

Forecasting Multiple Items

378 A Proposed U-Adaptive Response System for Forecasting Thousands of Items

Dennis W. McLeavey and Roy Ageloff

381 Forecasting in Business Schools: A Panel Discussion

John E. Hanke

Combining Forecasts

382 Developing Confidence Intervals for Combined Forecasts: A Preliminary InvestigationEdna M. White, Benito E. Flores, and Ronald Dattero

385 Accuracy Measures for Probabilistic Interval Forecasts

Kamran M. Dadkhah

388 Combining Probability Forecasts with the Linear Opinion Pool

David A. Bessler and Robert G. Nelson

xi

Topic Table: Developments in Forecasting Methodology392 Forecasting with Multiple Input Transfer Function Models: An Example

V. Neal Nikolaisen and Robert D. St. Louis

392 A Practical Algorithm for Fitting S-Curves

John Paxton and Marc Schniederjans392 Bayesian Forecasting with Changing Parameters

David H. Moen and Diego Salazar

Time Series Applications393 A Time Series Analysis of the Political Business Cycle: The United States and United Kingdom

Peg Young, Ronald S. Koot, and J. Keith Ord

396 Using Winters' Model and a Dummy Variable, Interaction Regression Model to Define ARIMA Models Which Yield

Shorter Prediction Intervals

Bruce L. Bowerman and Anne B. Koehler

399 Improvements in Forecasting Due to Expert Knowledge: A ComparisonNada R. Sanders and Larry P. Ritzman

Topic Table: Issues in Forecasting402 Mean and Median Cost of Predictive Error

Michael Cain

402 Bias Correction of Holt Forecasts for Series Containing Geometric Trend

Paul A. Rubin

402 Using the Fundamental Theorem of Exponential Smoothing as a Forecasting Tool

Charles R. Grain and Joseph P. Patten

Accuracy in Forecasting403 Accuracy and Aggregation When Forecasting Many Series

L. H. Zincone, Jr. and Yuan-Hsi Hsu

406 The Effect of Data Editing on Short-Term Forecasting AccuracyKwok Keung Kwong and Kamal M. El-Sheshai

408 Horizon-Dependent Parameters for Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Methods

Benito E. Flores, Frank P. Buffa, and Gregory V. Frazier

Forecasting for Production Decisions

411 Evaluating Time Series Forecasting Models in Simulated Operations SettingsT. S. Lee and Gail Cook

414 Integration of Market Share Prediction and Production PlanningC. Rene1 Dominique and Muhittin Oral

418 Estimation of the Weekly Demand Variability from 4-4-5 Historical Data

Prkha Pantumsinchai and Thomas W. Knowles

Forecasting in Support of Public Policy Decisions

422 Forecasting Legal Immigration to the United States in 1990: A Research Report to the U.S. CongressEric M. Larson

426 Modeling Weapon Systems: The Credibility of Simulation Results for Making Acquisition Decisions

Christine A. Fossett

Topic Table: Forecasting for Financial and Economic Analysis430 Forecasting Earnings per Share: An Experiment

Jeffrey Jarrett

INNOVATIVE EDUCATION

431 Teaching Expert Systems in Undergraduate MIS Curricula: A Practical PerspectiveMerrill E. Warkentin and Stephen R. Ruth

432 Toward a Better Understanding of Business School Research Relevance

John Trinkaus, John Finn, John Hopley, Fred Kiesner, Harold Lazarus, Donald Vredenburgh, and Steve

Woolley

434 A Workshop on Preparing and Presenting 35mm Slides in the Classroom and Computer Lab

Peter Peacock

Introducing the Computer into POM Classes

435 An End User Spreadsheet Approach to Using Microcomputers in Teaching Production/Operations ManagementRichard L, Luebbe and Byron J. Finch

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438 The Electronic Classroom: "On Line" Problem Solving Using Packaged SoftwareDavid A. Lewis

441 Computer Enhancement to Teaching with Cases

Byron J. Finch

Innovative Curricula Development444 Surveying Curriculum Developments in Business Colleges

William Brunsen, James Morgan, and Athar Murtuza

447 Management Education in the XXI Century: The AACSB/EFMD Challenge—Five Years Later

Gene E. Burton

450 Determining and Teaching Management "Skills" in an MBA ProgramJack E. Smith and Ralph A. Mortensen

Innovative Instructional Techniques I

454 "Yes, I See": Innovative Approaches to Instruction in Management ScienceWilliam E. Pinney

456 Improving Communications Skills through a Writing-across-the-Curriculum Program: One School's ApproachKatharine T. Hoffi and David E. Stout

460 Term Papers: An Old Tradition with Some New Ideas

David J. Skaret and Harry J. Skinker

Topic Table: Computers in the Curriculum

462 A Longitudinal Analysis of Performance Prediction Models for CIS Majors in the Business Computer Information

Systems Course

T. P. Cronan, P. R. Embry, and S. D. White

462 Implementing User Interface Design in Business Courses: A Picture Is Worth 1000 Words

Neil W. Jacobs and Gregory L. Neal

462 An Examination of the Utility and Perceptions of CAI for Students with Different Skill Levels

Kirk Arnett, James Trumbly, and Sumant Pendharkar462 Innovative Approach to Computer-Based Education

Wing M. Fok, Kern Kwong, and Lillian Fok

Selecting Appropriate Computing Hardware and Software

463 A Strategy for Undertaking an Initial System Workload Analysis in a College Environment

Dennis Guster and Richard Batt

466 An Analysis of Students' Perceptions Regarding Micro vs. Mainframe Computing in a Computer Literacy CourseJames E. Trumbly, Kirk P. Arnett, and Julio C. Rivera

469 A Performance Analysis of Mainframe and PC Cobol for Classroom Instruction

Kirk P. Arnett, Chulho Kim, and Rodney Pearson

Course/Instructor Evaluations

472 An Empirical Study of Systematic Differences in Student Ratings of Courses in a Management DepartmentJames J. Divoky and Mary Anne Rothermel

475 A Comparative Evaluation of Instructor Performance Appraisal MethodsRobert J. Solomon and Richard C. Hoffman

478 Student Evaluations of Faculty: A Three Campus ApproachUday Tate, Eric Pratt, and Donald Edwards

Using Interactive Instruction in Business Disciplines481 Interactive Cases as an Emerging Computer Aided Instructional Technique for Introductory Courses in Management

and Organizational Behavior

J. Daniel Sherman

484 A Comparison of Salespeople with Other Professionals

John H. Hallaq488 Development and Teaching an Operations Management/Industrial Engineering Course in Integrated Manufacturing

via Personal ComputersPatrick J. Starr and Farzad Mahmoodi

Topic Table: Innovations in Classroom and Testing Procedures

491 Integrating Expert Systems into a Statistics Class: The ANOVA Expert SystemL. W. Glorfeld and D. Banerjee

491 Demonstrating the Effectiveness of Classical Time Series Decomposition Techniques through the Use of Simulated

Data While Investigating Some Modifications to the Time Series TechniqueSteven W. Lamb

491 Derivatives of the Pearson Product Moment Correlation Coefficient

Vern Vincent

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Innovative Instructional Techniques II

492 A Numerical Demonstration of Financial EquilibriumWafeek Abdelsayed, Thomas Barnes, Samir Fahmy, Donald Shannon, and William Stevens

495 An Integrative Approach to DSS Education

Thomas W. Lauer and M. Tawfik Jelassi

Outcome Assessment of Programs, Courses and Students

498 A Case Study of a Cost-Effective Approach to the Assessment of Business ProgramsMargaret J, Hartman, Chor T. Lau, and Robert G. Zahary

501 A Comparison between Student Perceptions and Actual Learning Performance

Jeffrey Palko and Robert EUis

504 Improving Teaching in the EMBA Classroom: Some Empirical FindingsHarvey J. Brightman and Ross Hightower

MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS

507 Accounting Systems vs. Management Information Systems: Is There Really a Difference?

Susan L. Solomon

508 Main Memory Databases: A New Concept in Database Processing Technology, Opportunities, Problems and

Implications—a Tutorial

Vijay Kumar and Prashant Palvia

Topics in MIS: Ethics, Transborder Data Flow, End-User Computing511 A Psycho-Social Model of Software Piracy

Martha M. Eining and Anne L, Christensen511 Faculty Members' Perceptions of Unauthorized Copying of Software in Business Schools

J. P. Shim and G. S. Taylor511 Transborder Data Flow Restrictions: Legal and Technological Implications for Managers in Multinational

CorporationsCandace Deans and Kirk Karwan

511 A Field Study of Organizational Factors Influencing End-User Computing Success

Bindiganavale S. Vijayaraman and Sidney E. Harris

512 Workshop on Developing Awareness of Computer Ethics

Karen A. Forcht, Joan K. Pierson, and Ben M. Bauman

DSS/Expert Systems Research

513 A Comparison Between Interactive and Traditional Computer-Based Decision Support and Expert SystemsMadjid Tavana

516 The Effect of the Content and Frequency of Information Exposure: The Attribution of Causality in a Menu Driven

Search

Sheila M. Jacobs and Robert T. Keim

519 Questor: An Expert Systems Approach to Internal Audit Department Evaluation in Banks

Arun Sen and Wanda A. Wallace

Off-the-Shelf Software

522 MIS and Computers: The Small Business Environment

Wade M. Jackson and Prashant Palvia

525 Factors Influencing the Receptivity of Off-the-Shelf Software PackagesEdward G. Cale, Jr. and Steve E. Eriksen

528 Off-the-Shelf System Software User Satisfaction: An Empirical StudyWarren A. Beatty, Arthur A. Rasher, and Stephen H. Goodman

End-User Computing531 End-User Computing: A Comparison of Perceived and Congruence Constructs of User Involvement

William J. Doll and Gholamreza Torkzadeh534 A Model for Implementation of End User Computing

G. Premkumar537 A Model for an Organizational Approach to Supporting End-User Computing

Thomas E. Marshall and Michael Lucas Gibson

Telecommunications and Local Area Networks

540 An Environmental Approach to Telecommunications ManagementG. Premkumar

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543 Local Area Networks: Effects on Users and Their Work Environment

Ravinder Nath

544 Local Area Networking for Managers: A Behavioral and Organizational PerspectiveEdward J. Szewczak and William L. Gardner

Topic Table: Information Systems Development and Evaluation

547 Effectiveness in DSS Evaluation: A Conceptual AnalysisRonald A. Guillemette

547 An Empirical Evaluation of Systems Development MethodologiesS. Sakthivel

547 A Model to Effectively Integrate Technology in the Application Development Process

Martin D. Goslar

547 Changing Role of IS Planning Executive

Bhanu Raghunathan and T. S. Raghunathan547 A Study of Underlying Attributes Affecting the Development and Success of Strategic Information Systems

R. B. Kini, A. Steele, and G. Loy

Topic Table: Topics in MIS—Electronic Relationships, Turnover, Identity, and Curriculum

548 Electronic Relationships: Examining the Shifts in Researchers' Interaction Patterns Subsequent to the Introduction ofa Local Area Network

Ella Paton Gardner and Julie E. Kendall

548 Turnover among Young Information Systems Professionals

Harry C. Benham

548 A Free-Standing Identity for Information Systems as a Scientific Discipline: Necessity or FantasyNarayan S. Umanath

548 Data Base Management Systems Course in the AACSB's Business Schools

Syed Shahabuddin

Managerial Research Issues

549 Testing the Duality Role of IS Executives

Donald L. Amoroso and Ron L. Thompson553 The Managerial Style of Organizations and the Location of Authority over Information Systems Personnel

Hamid Tavakolian

556 Computer Use by Business School FacultyGeoffry S. Howard and Aubrey L. Mendelow

MIS Research: Assessment and Methodologies559 MIS Researchers' Assessments of MIS Research

James T. C. Teng and Dennis F. Galletta

562 A Methodology for Evaluating a Touch-Screen Computer as an Instrument for Collecting Survey Data•

David A. Bradbard and William G. Sherling, III

566 Experimental Research on the Mode of Presentation: Toward the Development of a Research Framework

Elias R. Callahan, Jr. and Jong-Sung Lee

Security and Piracy Issues

569 The Effect of Demographic Factors on Attitudes toward Software PiracySusan L. Solomon and James A. O'Brien

570 Virus Infections: A Case Example and Survey Results

Clinton White, Jr.573 Agents, Files and EDP Security Risks: An Empirical Analysis of Commercial Banks

John S. Cotner, R. Leon Price, and Warren Dickson

Effectiveness of Information Systems576 Effectiveness vs. Efficiency of the MIS Organization: What Do We Measure?

Connie E. Wells

579 Measuring Productivity Gains Associated with the Development and Implementation of Computer Information

SystemsLewis A. Myers, Jr. and E. Reed Doke

582 Judging the Functional Effectiveness of Computer SystemsKrishna S. Dhir and Prakash Mankekar

Cognitive Style Research

585 Cognitive Style: Can It Be Useful in Information Processing Design?John A. Hollingsworth and Donald L. Davis

588 Gender, Computer Anxiety, and Attitudes toward MicrocomputersSaroj Parasuraman and Magid Igbaria

592 Cognitive Style Diversity of MIS Project Teams: An Investigation Using the LSI

Jagadeeswaran Parameswaran, Suzanne M. Robertson, and James F. Courtney

Difficult Issues: Ethics, Privacy, Salaries598 Ethics and MIS: A Preliminary Investigation

David B. Paradice and Roy M. Dejoie601 Privacy and Technology: Is Privacy Our Right Most Endangered?

H. Wayne Stewart and Jo Ann C. Carland

604 A Two-Way ANOVA Study of Average Salaries of Junior and Senior Level MIS Professionals across Nine Industries

Claudia D. Rettenmayer and John W. Rettenmayer

Database Design607 Database Designs to Promote Software Reusability

John T. Nosek, Judith Ahrens, Ruth Schwartz, and Michael Rusak

610 TSM: A Top-Down Structured Model and Process for Physical Database DesignPrashant Palvia

613 An Analysis of Costs under Alternative Distributed Database ConfigurationsMax E. Jerrell and James Morgan

Research on User Involvement

616 The Effects of User Involvement: Some Personality Determinants

Stephen R. Hawk

619 Behavioral Expectations of Future Users of Management Information SystemsEarl Chrysler

623 Corporate Culture, Organizational Politics, and Information Systems DevelopmentEngming Lin and Phillip Ashcraft

Topic Table: Modeling in MIS

626 Proactive Review of Cost-Benefit Analyses: A Needed DSS

Kranti Toraskari and Prafulla Joglekar626 Organizational Modeling with Object Oriented Programming: A Systems Analysis Technique

Scott C. Mclntyre and Lexis F. Higgins626 Computer Capacity Planning Using Best/1 Simulation: A Case of Unequal Processors and Shared DASD

Arthur A, Rasher, Stephen H. Goodman, and Warren A. Beatty626 Optimum Reorganization Points

Amit Gupta626 An Analysis of the Behavior of Two-Phase Locking Mechanisms Using an Open Queueing Network

Jerry P. Place and Vijay Kumar

Information Engineering and Modeling627 Information Engineering: Developing Information Systems for Strategic Opportunities at GTE

J. Ellis Blanton and Susan Scott630 A Systems Reliability Approach to Evaluating Effectiveness of Data Communications Controls

Joseph C. Chao and James C. Hershauer

633 Business Computer System Maintenance: Some Ideas for a Structured Approach to Project Evaluation

Amy von Schrader Puelz

Development Methodologies636 Development Methodologies of Large Scale MIS Projects under Resource Constraints

Suleiman K. Kassicieh and Robert S. Tripp639 Contingency Approaches to IS Development Methodology Selection: Current Practices and Future Directions

John T. Nosek

642 Systems Analysis and Design Models Revisited: A Pragmatic ApplicationR. Leon Price and Seshacharyulu Madabhushi

Software Maintenance

645 Software Maintenance Management Revisited

John T. Nosek and Prashant Palvia

648 Managing Software Maintenance: The Challenge of Insufficient Data

Glenn G. Shephard and Charles E. Paddock

651 Software Maintenance: The Impact on Development Resources

E. Reed Doke, Neil Swanson, and Lewis A. Myers

Research on Programming654 Measuring Program Complexity Using Halstead's Metric

Jon D. Clark and Michael Lucas Gibson

656 Perceived Flexibility of Fourth Generation LanguagesBijan Mashaw

659 A Comparative Analysis of 4GL's and 3GL's in Systems DevelopmentMary R. Sumner

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