ant13 177 john taskinsoy full paper

8/13/2019 ANT13 177 John Taskinsoy Full Paper

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WEI I e a a Acade c C fe e ce P ceed g Ja a 14 16, 2013A a a, T e

RIGOROUS CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS UNDER BASEL III

POSSIBLE IMPACT ON TURKEYS FINANCIAL SECTOR

1

T e ha e e e ced he b gge f a c a a d ec c h c 2001 e g a ae ha g f e e ba g e ha e e a c he g e e e $50 b

IMF a ed he ec e ce f he beg g d g T e ea $24 bf a c a a a ce be ee he f ag e ea f 1999 a d 2002. Af e 19 S a d B a a ge e , hT h g e e ece a ced ha had dec ded a e d a e h hIMF ce 1947 a d a a d ha d c a he a a ge e af e he a

a e f he e g a ade A 2013. The e e T h ba g e ca abab b g h c d g f a c a e , ha he e a d a b he BRSA, a decade

ca ab ( e a g e e ce 2002) a g h ed g ba e ce ab ed T e bec g he 16h a ge ec he d h e $1 GDP. O hec a f c a g e , a a ge be f T h g e e ff c a a d he bae ec e be e e ha Ba e III e g ca a e e e ha e e

he T h ba g ec h ch c e ha a ca a ade ac a (CAR) f e e 16% g f ca h ghe ha Ba e III 10.5% effec b Ja a 2019.

Ba e III, d a age e , f a c a c e , a d T e G01, G21, G28, G30, F30, E52

I de de a d a d a e a e e f he a ed f e e e he c e f g ba baec , e ea eed de a d ha had cc ed he a ha b gh he

E e h g bega ea f decade ag he c ca e e ga e b h he c ea f hC ee Ba g S e (BCBS), head a e ed Ba e , S e a d; f , ce ed 1973 d e he A ab I ae Y K Wa f ha ea ; he he f g ea , he Ge a ' Ba ha He a ace 1974 he he Ge a eg a ed he eg

e da e he ba , h ch a e ed d f he ba . The f f Ba e Acc dBa e I, a d ced 1988 add e c ed . The , e e f ac a d c ec c e ea Me ca e c 1994; T h ec c c 1994 a d 1999; A a c e c c

1 The a h a Se Lec e a he Fac f Ec c & B e , U e Ma a a Sa a a (UK a Sa a aha , Sa a a , Ma a a, ff ce h e: +60 82 584302, e a : a @feb. a .

The a h he ac edge he f U e Ma a a, Sa a a (U a ). He e e d ha P f. D . Ab Ha a Md. I a, U e Ma a a, Sa a a U a , f h he f c e

a e a d f h d ec a d g da ce he d e a . He d a e ha P f. D . Sha a AbA c a e P f. D . M ha ad Ja U e Ma a a, Sa a a U a f he .

1 See CIA The W d Fac b a e ha T e GDP ( cha g e a ) $1.087 (2011 e .( ff c a e cha ge a e) $778.1 b (2011 e .)


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a d ea 1998; R a f a c a c 1998; he d c b bb e c a h f he U ed S a e 200a he T h ec c c 2001 a ed he a f he C ee d ce Ba e II 200

II, d ffe e ha Ba e I, c ded e a a , e e e ce a d d c e F he e, Ba e II a ed ba de e he e a a g echa a e hec ed , e a , a d a age e f ca a . Wha e ha e a f 2010 , Ba e III; h he he

f c e 27 e be a , Ba e III e c ea e a g a d e e baca ab e f ab b g f a c a a d ec c h c d g c e a e f g ba f a c a e

The C ee be e f c h Ba e III e g he he a a d a f cahe BCBS g be e e a he de g ea beh d he 2008 g ba f a c a c . O e

f a a ha he def f ca a a c ea e e g a h ghe e e f ba . Ae e a c f g e a d b e e each e h a d e e e . The a ha de Ba e II, a ea b e f he a e a c a eg a

e g h ea e f he ba g e d e e ba e g ge T e 1 ha hef g e ; add , e a a ha a , ea a a e c , eff c e eg a

ac f g e a ce ade h g ge e b f c e g a g ba ca e f a c a c

Ba a c e h gh he d e e ab e b d e ce e a d ff ba ae e age de Ba e II, h ch ed e f ca a a . M e a , baead ab b b a a a f e c ad g a d c ed e a ed e beca e a e

ea e ba e e a ha d e a ge ff ba a ce hee e e. Whe a h aha ade h g c ab e a ha e ( a e ) c f de ce he h e ba g e a e ab e ab a e he c de c . Th a e, c ea ed a a c

f he de e a he g ba f a c a e . Cha eac f e d de g ca ed d he a e ace. Th he g e e fe he eed e b ec

d a d g g e f f he ca a f fa ed f a c a .

Ba e e a a a he e ce e f he c . The c ee fe ha e f Ba e II f ac ec ed gh a a . The a a e he a a d a f ca a a d a e ba g e e be c e a d d de a e c e a d a a e . Ne , he

ed e g he he a ea f c e age a d a age e , h ch a a be e ed be he de g Ba e II def c e c e . A e e age a d ced he c a he e cehe ba g e . Beca e ac f a a e d a a f da e a b e bef e a d d

c ; a e ca e f h e, he C ee d c g a ca a b ffe ca ed c e aba b d f ca a b ffe be a a ab e f e d g a f a c a ec c e . Ma he b ffe ca ed c e c c ca be d ced de Ba e III e e a e ab e

e . The BCBS a ed a e ca e f a he f a Ba e II b d c g a 30 da d ca f a e a a ac e ba .

Beca e ba a e c ca e ed a e f f a c a a ac , d be a bc e ec c ac e f de g; h , a he C ee def ed a g a d e ee he f da f a ab e ec c g h, a ba a e a he ce e f he

e ed a ce be ee a e a d e . M e e , ba de c ca e ce a a d ed ed e e e , a ge c a e f a d g e e h e he c

he da b e , b h a a d e c a d e a a e e . The C ee e c ea e a e eba g e , b f , f c ed c ec Ba e II f a h gh f g ea e

2 See Ba e III: S e g he g he e e ce f he ba g ec , .103 See Ba e III: S e g he g he e e ce f he ba g ec , .114 See Ba e III: S e g he g he e e ce f he ba g ec , .9


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Ra g he a , c e c a d a a e c f he ca a ba e. The ca a a ade Ba e II e e ff c e h ch e ed a h ghe e e f ba . A , he

e f c e c he def f ca a ac ba . U de Ba e III, T e 1 ced a c f c ha e a d e a ed ea g f h ch c ed e a d ca be ded c ed a b e ed d g he 2008 c . U de Ba e III, a e h b d ca

e (15% f T e 1 ca a ) be ha ed ; a d b e e (T e 3) be e a ed T e 1 ca a be c ea ed f 2% 4.5%.

E ha c g c e age. L ed c e age de Ba e II a a a e a d h eeded e ha ced. Off ba a ce hee a d de a e e a ed e e a e ee a he e de abVaR, a e a , d ced a a f Ba e III e g he e e e d c e . The BCBS a d ha he P a 2 a age e a da d beca e effec e edI e c ec ed e be ee d ffe e f a c a a d a e ace e a

b e . Add e g h , he C ee g e ab h g f a Pa e a d Se e e S

S e e g he ba ed ca a e e e h a e e age a . Le e age b d eb e d g he 2008 c a d ha e a bee b e a c e c e a e ( .e. 199c ). Le e age b d , a he c e f e , bec e a d a d f ce ba ed ce a e . The C ee e a e he ba g ec de ab g a d de e e ag g effec b

f h ch e e age ba ca b d .

Red c g c c ca a d g c e c c ca b ffe . The C ee c a haa c a ha e he e de c beha e a c c ca a e h ch a ha e bee he

de ab g e e e f he c . The ef e, he BCBS d c g a be f c ca a f he ba g e f be g a h c a e a a h c ab be . S e f

b ec e c de: ed c g e ce c c ca , b d g ca a b ffe a d d a ba , ae ce c ed g h b ad g he b ade ac de a g a f ec g he ba g

Add e g e c a d e c ec ed e . The C ee a a f a de Ba e II ha he c , he c e e de e ed ch a a e e e a ca be g b ec a e eg a e e e .

Acc d g he BCBS, he c e def f ca a de Ba e II ffe h ee f da e a feg a ad e c e a ed e he T e 1 b h T e 1 a d T e 2 he he a e

be a ed he c e c e f T e 1 beca e c e ca be ab be b ca a a he be ba e e h f a c a e e a ed c ce ; (2)

ha ed h g a eg a ad e , h ch ceab d ffe f c ca c e c ; (3) ca a d c e f ba e ac ece a de a ed f aeg a ca a ba e , h ch a e e d ff c f he ba g d aeg a b d e c e h a acc a e a e e f he ba g e ac a a .

Ba ha a e e a c c a e , T e 1 ca a c f c he a ed ea g f he f ; add , eg a ad e be a ed h c

a ab e ece a ha e eg a ad e a d he a ca e a

5 See Ba e III: S e g he g he e e ce f he ba g ec , .126 See Ba e III: S e g he g he e e ce f he ba g ec , .13 147 See Ba e III: S e g he g he e e ce f he ba g ec , .158 See Ba e III: S e g he g he e e ce f he ba g ec , .159 See Ba e III: S e g he g he e e ce f he ba g ec , .1811 See Ba e III: S e g he g he e e ce f he ba g ec , .21


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T e 1 ca a he e be de c e be e g he ed. Q a e dfea e f T e 1 be ha ed . The dea ha a T e 1 e be ab

g g c ce ba . Pa e T e 1 e be c de ed a d b f eahe ca a c e a b ffe a .

T e 2 be f ed b e g a b ca eg e . U de T e 2 ca a , e bde a d c ed ha e a g a a f 5 ea h ch be a ed

a gh e a ach.

The T e 3 a ed da , a ab hed. The ca a ed ee a e e e e f he a e a f c a ca a ed ee c ed a d e a a e e e

T e a a e c a d add e d c e e , he C ee a e e ha bae ed d c e he f g e he e g: he ba a ce hee cec c a f eg a ca a e e e ; e a a e d c e f a eg a ad

de c f a e a d ega e ha he ca a ha bee b ec ; he ba da ed, he a eed de e a a h he e a ha e bee ca c a ed.

F a , he C ee e e ha a ba he eb e ha e de f e a df a e ed a a f he eg a ca a .

10

C e c c ca b ffe 0.625% 1.25% 1.825% 2.5%Ca a c e a b ffe 0.625% 1.25% 1.875% 2.5%

F e P b 9.25% 10.50% 11.75% 13.0%

8.625% 9.25% 9.875% 10.50%

T aCa a 8%

8% 8%8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

6% 6% 6% 6% 6%

4.5%5.5%

T e 1Ca a 4%

4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%

4%

CET 1Ca a 2%

3.5%

The f a c a a e d de faced h e a he c ; b a a b e gage c

U.S., a d he ed a f b 2008 (bega a e 2007) g ba f a c a c ad e e aec e ( c ) a e a e he d e a a e a . IMF ca ed a he a gh c ce G ea De e a d he c , a TV e a US e e ca ed A agedd he a A g 1, 2007 a d acc ed he Fed (e ec a he f e Fed Cha a A

G ee a ) a g e gh ac . B Se e be 2007, he f a c a c ade a EB a N he R c ba g e e ge c f he ba f E g a d h g g f eade . F a , f e Fed Cha a A a G ee a a ed f a ge, d b e d g dec e

a e (K h he , 2010). I he f 12 h f he 2008 c , Wa S ee a h gh f g fc a e c g ded e ha d b a ead e e e g agge g

ha eh de a e ha a ed a e $4 d a . The c a e a a e

12 See Ba e III: S e g he g he e e ce f he ba g ec , .2410 S gh d f ed f E & Y g a ach Ba e III, he ab e e a ed b he a h


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Oc be 2007 he c a $19.1 , a d e ha a ea a e Se e be 12, 2008, c e ed $15.1 . A he ab e 2 da a h , Oc be 9, 2007, he a e ca a

f A e ca 25 b gge f a c a f a $1.75 d a ; ab 11 h a e b Se2008, he a e ca a a f he a e 25 f a c a f ged d b g $874 b c a f 50.03% ($872.9 b ) ha eh de a e. Se e a ba a ge e ed b e

e d g ( .e. C de) f a e c d c e e a a d e e a he e ba

& ( $ )13

, ( ) , ( ) %

1. C g $236.7 $97.8 57.82. Ba f A e ca 236.5 152.2 36.53. A e ca I . G 179.8 33.2 82.04. JP M ga Cha e 161.0 142.2 11.75. We Fa g 124.1 113.2 8.86. Wach a 98.3 30.8 68.67. G d a Sac 97.7 61.3 37.28. A e ca E e 74.8 45.0 39.89. M ga S a 73.1 41.1 43.8

10. Fa e Mae 64.8 0.7 98.911. Me L ch 63.9 24.2 62.112. Ba f Ne Y Me 51.8 45.5 12.313. F edd e Mac 41.5 0.3 99.314. Leh a B he 34.4 2.5 92.6

15. Wa h g M a 31.1 2.9 90.716. Ca a O e F a c a 29.9 17.1 42.717. S Ba 27.0 16.5 38.818. BB&T 23.2 18.8 19.019. F f h Th d Ba c 18.8 8.2 56.320. Na a C C 16.4 3.7 77.521. Bea S e 14.8 0.0 10022. Ke c 13.2 6.5 51.023. Ma ha I e 11.6 4.7 59.424. Leg Ma 11.4 5.6 51.025. C de F a c a 11.1 0.0 100

I de c ea he e f a c a e ef beh d b he 2008 c , he Fede a Re e e (he U.S. ca e h h ee c ca a d ge ac a ; (1) e d g f d b ed c a

e ($345 b ); (2) b g ea b d ($770 b , he ba a ce a 300 b bc ); a d (3) cha g c a e ha b d a ed ( e $1 b ed a e ) A he e d,

he he d e ed, he Fed a ef h a ba ed ba a ce hee a d g a $2.3 ch gh c c ed $700 b d a Wa S ee ba . A e age US c e e e e ed ab

ee g he b ha h g ab h he c a e a d g. U e e beca e a de a

14 See Ne Y T e A Yea f Hea L e Se e be 15, 200813 See W h e A c a e ( e ed b Ne Y T e Se e be 15, 2008), he ab e a d ca c a d e b

a h . h :// . e .c / e ac e/2008/09/15/b e /20080916 ee a g a h c.h15 See CNNM e .c (Oc be 9, 2009), The Fed' $2.2 f e h e


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7/31


c ea ed 7% (4.5% T e 1 2.5% c e a b ffe h ch be f effec b Ja a 1,Whe T e 1 a ed f 4% 6% Ja a 1, 2015, he he e ca a e e e

8.5% c d g he 2.5% c e a b ffe . H e e , he a ca a a e a ae gh ed a e de Ba e III. The a d ffe e ce be ha he 8% f e gh ed a e cT e 1 a d 2% T e 2. I add , Ba e III f e T e 2 ( b e a bef e) a d e aca eg ( ee ab e 1). B 2019, he ca a e e e be 10.5% (8% + 2.5%).

T ghe g ba ba g ca a e ba e h de ec c g h, a d a d Wed e dad b c a f he ba g ec ha he e ca a e e e de Ba e III d ec ed ee e ha d de a ec c ec e (H , 2010). T a d e ha e bee c d c e2009 de a e he d e e f ba (f a c a ) e a ca

de b h Ba e II a d Ba e III. Q g (2011) a e ha he d d e b he Ba f I e aSe e e (BIS) ha f d ha he 74 g 1 ba d ha e had a a e age c e T e 1

a f 5.7% de Ba e III Dece be 31, 2009, a g f a ca f he e e . The ce a a 11.1% de Ba e II a he a e da e. 133 d ed ba d ha e ee he e a

a ea e f 10.7% 7.8%, gge g a ch g ea e ac f a ge f a c a .The C ee f E ea Ba g S e (CEBS) d f he 33 a E ea ba had a

e c e T e 1 a de Ba e III def (4.9%) a d a c e a f de Ba e II. Ech g he BIS ac d , 157 d ed ba ffe a e ced dec e

a de he e e , f 11.1% 7.1%. A he e d f 2009, acc d g he Ba e C ee he add a ca a eeded be a ed b ba h a c e a f be 7% de ha e e (7%) a ed 602 b , f h ch 577 b f g 1 ba a d 25 b f

ba . I he CEBS d , he ca a eeded be a ed a 291 b , f h ch 263 b b gba a d 28 b b g 2 ba (Q g , 2011). Whe he d e a e c a ed, he addca a ha g 2 ba eed a e b h d e c e e a e c e each he ; h

e f g 1ba a e g f ca d ffe e he e he Ba e C ee d f g e f ea e ce e ha ha CEBS d h .

27

( (% (%

1 2 3 4 5 U ed S a e 0.08 0.31 0.54 0.77 0.93 0.18E a ea 0.00 0.23 0.93 1.40 2.10 0.42Ja a 0.00 0.33 0.50 1.17 1.33 0.27T e 0.65A e age ( e) 0.03 0.29 0.66 1.11 1.45 0.29A e age (GDP e gh ed) 0.03 0.28 0.69 1.08 1.45 0.29

The OECD g a e Mac ec c I ac f Ba e III e a ed he ed e ac fBa e III e e a GDP g h he a ge f ega e 0.05 0.15 e ce age a . Ec c a affec ed b a c ea e ba e d g ead a ba a a ba f d g c , d e h ghe ca a e e e , he c e . T ee he ca a eeffec e 2015 (4.5% f he c e a , 6% f he T e 1 ca a a ), ba a e e

c ea e he e d g ead a e age b ab 15 ba . The ca a e e e effec2019 (7% f he c e a , 8.5% f he T e 1 ca a a ) c d c ea e ba e d g

22 See Ba e III: S e g he g he e e ce f he ba g ec23 The 94 g 1 ba , f h ch 91 ed f a , ha e e ce T e 1 ca a f e 3 b a e d e

ac e e a a . A he ba a e g 2.27 S ce: OECD Ec c De a e W g Pa e N . 844 Mac ec c I ac f Ba e III24 See Mac ec c I ac f Ba e III , OECD Ec c De a e W g Pa e , N . 844, . 3, OECD P b


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b ab 50 ba (S & C de, 2011, .3). The OECD d a ha ba c ea e he c e a a e age 1.2% a d T e 1 ca a a b 0.5% de

ca a e e e b 2015. H e e , h he ca a c e a b ffe f 2.5% f effec b Ja2019 b h ch, a ca a e e e bec e 10.5%, a d h ea ha ba hc ea e c e a a e age b ab 3.7% a d T e 1 ca a a b 3.0% (S & C

2011, .7).

The 2008 g ba f a c a c d d d a e ec a he e e ha g e e e e e g g f ce ba d de bec e e c e a e ach e e c ea ed f a a d a f d ca a e ab e he ab b h c a g f f a c a a

e . Be ee he ea f 2006 2009, he U ed S a e ha ed b h T e 1 a d c eca a ; 9.8% 11.4% (+1.6%) a d 8.6% 10.5% (+1.9%) e ec e . D g he a e e d, he Ea ea ha ach e ed 1.4% c ea e T e 1 a (f 8.0% 9.4%) a d 1.2% c ea e ce a (f 6.8% 8.0%). T e 1 a d c e ca a e e e e ch e Ja a

he c (2006) a d af e he c (2009); T e 1 c ea ed f 5.4% 6.9% (+1.5%) a d c e

ed 4.1% f 3.3% (+0.8%). I he h ee a OECD ec e ( he US, he EU, a d Ja a ), a ee ce age (100 ba ) c ea e he a f ba ca a e gh ed a e a a e age ega e ac GDP e e f 0.20% e ea af e he e e a , h ch a aa ega e 0.04 e ce age ac a a GDP g h.

Q g (2011) a g e ha a e a ha e bee ade ( .e. Ba e 2.5) he g a Ba e III; he efd e e e e a he cha ge ba de a e ce he f e f Ba e II.

ac d e gge ha he e a da d a e ch a b g d ffe e ce ba ba a ce hee h g f ca affec he c e a d e f f a c a a g a d f d g. F d g

O c e R be a d Pa a ba (2010) d ca ed ha ba d de d ha e b e eehe e ca a e e e de Ba e III 2013 (7%) a d 2014 (8%), b e ba c e

2019 d a fa g e af e a he a he T e 1 ca a be c ea ed b g g he e e e 10.5%. S a d C de (2011) a g e ha he e a ed ed e ac f Ba ee e a GDP g h he a ge f 0.05 0.15 e ce age e a . Acc d g

W d Pe C c (WPC), E ea eg a ha e hed d g a ca a d a e f hef he Ba e II ec e da f c g a e ba , ce a ba , a d ba eg a e

a e e f c ed b a e a g age c e (N c a & F , 2011). The f d g f a cd b A ge e a . (2011) gge ha each e ce age c ea e he ca a a

ed a 0.09 e ce dec e he e e f ead a e , e a e he ba e e. The ac d eg a f a a de f ag de, a 0.08 e ce . The U.S. Fede a De

C a Cha She a Ba e a ed J e 2007 ha h e ca a eg ae a e he a e ace h e ca a . A d g e e a d de e e d h

bag, bea g ch f he a d c f fa e (B a , 2007).

The da a e e ed he a e f C a a d Ha a (2011) gge ha a ge ba d a eeed c ea e he e a e a b 1.3 e ce age de he Ba e III f a e(ge e a ed e h d f e ) e a d ca e ha h d ead a ge ba c ea

e d g a e b 16 ba , ca g a g h dec e b 1.3 e ce he g . Ea e ha he ba g d a g e ha Ba e III e ha he ec . F e aI e f I e a a F a ce (IIF) ca c a ed ha he ec e f he US a d E e d

a e af e f e ea ha f Ba e III e e ad ed. F e a e, he F e ch ba g a c aca c a ha gge ed a 6% h he F e ch ec h ch d b e he e f ac gge

he IIF. The ef e, G d (2003) a : A g e fac de ca ca e a c e g f f d

25 S ce: IIF I e f I e a a F a ce (2010), I e Re he C a e I ac he G baf P ed Cha ge he Ba g Reg a F a e , Ca c a d e b (S & C de, 2011)

26 See Mac ec c I ac f Ba e III , OECD Ec c De a e W g Pa e , N . 844, . 10


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d e c e he e a e ca e c e f he g ba b e c c e. G d ( ha ca b a g a g e fac de a b ad d e f ed e a a c ed

g f ca de a e he ca a eeded a eg a ec a ed e de . Jac (1ha he C ee e ea ed Ba e II de e a e h Ba e I, ab f a ha a b age a a a .

28

2.0%3. %

. % . % . % . % . % . %2.0%

1.0%

1. % 1. % 1. % 1. % 1. % 1. %.0% 3. %

2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

1.2 % 1. % 2. 0%

1.2 %1. %

2. 0%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

1 1 2

O he c a ha a he ba g d fea , A e e a . (2012) fee ha he g eBa e III be ch e ; h e e , he ag ee h c c f Ba e III ha a age e a d g e

be he e a d g e e e h age f d . Ca a a (2010), e e e b d e e, d e

Ba e II a he a ch ec beh d he 2008 c f ea : f , he a g e ha he c e f 2007 he ba f ba a ce ha had b he e e a f Ba e II; a ha a f Ba e II ad g c e d d 2008 a e . S , h ea ha Ba

af e a h f he c h ch h he face a e 2007 a d ea 2008 a d d be f ah d e h g eb d e b e f he a ha a a e .

A c ehe e e ea ch b McK e & C a c a ha Ba e III e ca a e ec ea ed a a d a f ca a , c ea e a e e e h age f f d he E ea ba

ha b 2019 he d eed ab 1.1 f add a T e 1 ca a , 1.3 d , a d ab 2.3 f g e f d g, ab e a ga g ac . A h gh

he U.S. ba g ec ch d ffe e , he ac ee be gh a e acc dMcK e & C a e a e ha T e 1 ca a h fa a $870 b ( 600 b ), he ga

e d a $800 b ( 570 b ), a d he ga g e f d g a $3.2 (Af e f e e a b 2019, McK e e ea ch a h gh gh ed ha E ea ba e

e (ROE) d dec ea e b be ee 3.7 a d 4.3 e ce age f he e c e e e ce (be ee 11.3% a d 10.7%). I de d f he McK e e ha a eg e f ba

e a a a g deg ee be affec ed b h ghe ca a a d d e e e . Fe a ba g b e be bab e affec ed ha ha f h e a e ba g. Re a ba h

a ead e a g de e ca a a f e e c a ed h e a e ba . I c ea ed e e e a he e a ba g e d h e f he c c e he a f e he h

h ghe e e a (70 ba ). C a e ba g a ee fa ha e f ad e e ac a

28 h :// .acce e.c /S eC ec D c e /PDF/F a c a Se ce /Acce e Ba e III Ha db . df29 See McK e & C a , Ba e III a d E ea ba g: I ac , h ba gh e d, a d he cha e ge

e e a , h :// e . g/E ea %20ba g_McK e C . df, .330 See McK e & C a , h :// e . g/E ea %20ba g_McK e C . df, .10

0. 625 %0. 625 %


10/31


g c f he f g d c a d e ce ; c ed c ed e , g e cg e a e ba ed f a ce b e e . Of he h ee d ffe e eg e , e e ba g

face e cha ge d c a d e ce ffe g beca e he a e e c e a e ha hffe ed b e a c a e ba g.

A ece OECD d h ac ec c ac f a e e ce age c ea e ba caa . Ba ed h d , e e ce age c ea e he a f ba ca a e

( .e. c ea e f 7% 8%) he h ee a OECD ec e , d e a a e age ac e e f0.20% e ea af e he e e a , h ch a a e a 0.04 e ce age

a a GDP g h. A a e , he a a GDP g h he U ed S a e d be ega e 0.0a . The a ge ac GDP g h he E a ea h 0.06%, a d Ja a ee be he affec ed ( 0.02%). The a e d h ha Ba e III ca a e e e (4.5% f he c e

a , 6% f he T e 1 ca a a ) f effec e a f 2015 f he ed ce GDP g h a e0.23% f e ea af e e e a . A h gh Ba e III c ea ed e e f ca a e e e

d ce b gge ac a a GDP g h f he E a ea ( 0.08%) a d Ja a ( 0.04), h e e

ca e f U.S., he ac GDP g h d c de ab (ha f f ha a bef e The h ghe e e f Ba e III ca a e e e (10.5% 8% 2.5% c e a b ffe ) effec a f Ja a 1, 2019, a d b h e, he ega e ac f Ba e III a a GDP g h

ea ; 0.12% U.S., 0.23 he E a ea, a d 0.09% Ja a .

S a d C de (2011) a g e ha he e a ed ed e ac f Ba e III e e aGDP g h he a ge f0.05 0.15 e ce age e a . The a c a ha he ac GDP f he ca ed b he ha e f ba a c ed e ed a beca e he Ba e II

e e e affec he ba g ec . The a a f S a d C de (2011) h ha he bahe U ed S a e acc f 23.6% f he a c ed e ed a c a ed 73.8% he E

52.6% Ja a . Shea a & S e g a d a e ha he U.S. ha edged e e Ba e III a h gh age c e a g . N e he e , he U.S. a de e e a he a da d

ba a he e de e e a he a da d e ec e . The e a ed ed e ac f

Ba e III e e a GDP g h T e c d be e ha a ha f f a e ce age ( 0.6 h ghe e a d e T e de e g c a a d c e b e e he Eadd ha , T e ha e he d effec f ega e ac ce he ba E e g

a ba g c a cha ge ee he e Ba e III ca a e e e (7% 4.51 2.5% c e a b ffe ) f effec b Ja a 1, 2013. Ba T e bab acc

a ge e ce age (c e 60 70%) f he a c ed e ed a ha he E a ea beca e baa e e ch he ce f b a g c ed e he a U.S. he e c e ,

e ha e e f a c a e ed a e ch e f f he c ed eed .

The a de f c ea g he a a d a f ca a , he C ee he e g he he c e age f Ba e II a d he BCBS a ead a g a be f e

U de Ba e II, he c e a c ed (CCR) a e c e ed a d acc d g heC ee a e e , he ca a e a ed CCR a ade a e e e a a ea . The C ee

h ha gh h d f CCR e e e d e CVA e a d ab e h d e

31 See McK e & C a , h :// e . g/E ea %20ba g_McK e C . df, .11 1232 See OECD Ec c De a e W g Pa e N . 844 Mac ec c I ac f Ba e III33 See I e f I e a a F a ce (2010), I e Re he C a e I ac he G ba Ec

P ed Cha ge he Ba g Reg a F a e , Wa h g , DC34 Shea a & S e g e The Ne Ba e III F a e : I ca f Ba g O ga a 3/30/ 201135 The ac f Ba e III GDP g h T e a ed be a ea 50% g ea e ha he E a ea ( 0.42 136 C e a c ed ea , a c a ed h c ed ha g e defa ea g beh d a

he d , a e ba a ce e a g he a (c ed ) ha eed be a d.


11/31


ac a defa . The BCBS a d ced e a a ha ed e e age a (LCR hd = S c f h gh a d a e /T a e ca h f e he e 30 da =

NSFR g e d = A a ab e a f ab e f d g/Re ed a f ab e f d g E & Y g a ach Ba e III c a ha ba a e e ed bac 100% f he d a e bf d g; h e e , a f g e de a gage eed be bac ed b 65% NSFR.

Ca a Ade ac Ra (CAR) =T e 1 (T1) + T e 2 (T2)

C ed R RWA + Ma e RRWA + O e a a R RWA

10.5% b 2019 (1)

Sh e L d Ra (LCR) =S c f h gh a d a e

T a e ca h fe he e 30 da

100 (2)

L g e L d Ra (NSFR) =A a ab e a f ab e f d g

Re ed a f ab e f d g> 100 (3)

P he 1998 A a c , A a 5 c e (Tha a d, I d e a, Ma a a, Ph e , a d a ac ed ea ha f f he f e g ca a f (FDI a d FPI ) de e g c e ab 1996 (F he , 1998). C e e , d g he 1998 A a c , e had cd a h ch ed he BCBS e ba g ef de Ba e II. Ba g a d G dfa (1ca ed he 1998 c a A a F a d c a ed ha he c a a ca e f c ag he e e cfa e c a he e ghb g c e . B C , he 42d P e de f he U ed S a e ,ca ed he A a c a a g ch. A Na (1998) ed , Ja a 1998, he U. S. Fede aCha a A a G ee a d ca ed ha beca e f he f a c a c , f e g e A(e c d g h e Ja a ) had a e a ed $700 b c d g $30 b b he A e c(1998) a c a ha he c ca ed da f ea ha f f he ba Tha a d (56 f 9K ea (16 f 30), a d e a e c e f 16 ba I d e a. Ca a d Me d a (1997) a g e ha

e f a c a a e f de e g c e a d/ e e g g a e a e b / e d

c ce g f a c a ec e ba ed ha e e b d e e d g (he d e a ), h ch c de ed a a a a a ach he e c de a e chec ed c f ed. Maa a e ha a ead ce e e ha e a h e h d f he e b

h ch a be e gh gge a c ec e e ff a d a e ead f e c

F ch, e f he "b g h ee c ed a g age c e " (S a da d & P ' , M d ' I e Se ce aRa g ), d e f e ee a a b ac e f ba Ma a a ee e Ba e III c

e e e . A h gh, a ece e b F ch h ed ha T e 1 (CET1) a f a a g f Ma a a a ged f 8% 11%; h e e , he ba g ec a e age he c a a d 8.

37 See Ba e III: S e g he g he e e ce f he ba g ec , .3638 See Ba e III: Re G20 Leade Ba e III e e a , .939 E & Y g a ach Ba e III


12/31


de Ba e III, h ch a gh e ha 9.3% de Ba e II. F ch a e ed ee e a ba h CET1 e ha 8% Ma a a a c e h f ee g CET1 ca a e e e

Ba e III. C Re ea ch d ca ed a e ha ba g ec Ta a a d Ma a a ha e e ae T e 1 ca a a d e a e h gh e e age a (LCR). A a Me , e ec e d ec f f a c a a age e e ce a KPMG Ma a a, a d ha he ee ca a e e e f

c e a b e a c, b e e a f Ba e III e cha e ge he a ea f dA a c e c d g Ma a a d e a h age f h gh a d a e f ba

d . A a da a Jega a a ga , Ma a a Ra g C Bhd ce e de a d head f f a a g , ee he b gge cha e ge Ma a a ba g ec a he e e e

d de d beca e a a ba Ma a a a e aded B a Ma a a ( c e cha ge).

3. 40

. 2

0 %

.

0 %

.

0 %

1 0

. 0 %

. 3

0 %

. 1

0 %

1 1

. 2 0 %

.

0 %

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

1 1

T e 1 ca a de Ba e III e e a ba e c ; he d , T e 1 ca a hec e he e a d g e d f f a c a ec c e . The ef e, c e

c ) de Ba e III ec g ed a he h ghe a c e f ca a h ch he af d g he ba e a e . I a ha T e 1 h d c f ce e e b ba e e he e e e he e e e e . The C ee a a h

a e c e e e e ha e bee c ded T e 1 ed ce c ; h e e , he e e eega e affec g he a f ca a ha e be ha ed . Reg a ad e

a he e e f c e a g h e a ed ea g . The g c beh d h ha ba h g T e 1 a h e ha g e e f a g b e c e . The BCBS a g e

h d be a e a d b e f ca a h ch a e e d ff c f a eha ed def f ca a . Tha h Ba e III d ce T e 1 a d f e T e 2 (a bef e) a d e a e T e 3 ca eg . Ba e III e e a f d c e f a c

eg a ca a ha a a e a a e c a ca be ade.

41 See e : F ch: Ma a a ba ab e ee Ba e III ca a eh ://b . he a .c . / e / .a ?f e=/2012/8/10/b e /20120810112749& ec=b e

42 See e : Ba e 3 e f bah ://b . he a .c . / e / .a ?f e=/2010/3/1/b e /5708878& ec=b e

43 See e : Ma a a ba eed ad c h Ba e IIIh ://b . he a .c . / e / .a ?f e=/2012/1/12/b e /10246038& ec=b e

44 See e : Ba e 3 e f bah ://b . he a .c . / e / .a ?f e=/2010/3/1/b e /5708878& ec=b e

40 S ce: C g G ba Ma e 22 Ja a 2010 (a c ed KPMG e Ba Tech A a 2011. )45 See Ba e III: S e g he g he e e ce f he ba g ec , .22 23

7 % 2013

10.5% 2019


13/31


I e G20 Leade Ba e III e e a , he C ee a d ha a f e d f Ma 201he 27 Ba e e be c e ha e e e ed Ba e II a d I d e a a d R a ha e e e ed

Ba e II P a 1 ( ca a e e e ). I add , A ge a, Ch a, T e a d he Ua e he ce f e e g Ba e II. F he e, A ge a, H g K g SAR, I d eR a, T e a d he U ed S a e ha e e ed d af Ba e III eg a . A h gh hc e ab e be e e ha he c d ee he Ja a 1, 2013 dead e, e e he e e cb ea c a c d e c e a g ce e a e c de ab cha e g g.

The 2008 f a c a c a d h ge ac a d de ea ed he c he e f a c a c , e ec e e ca ed f a c a e d ; h e e , T e ee ed baffec ed b , e e h gh he c h gh ag de ac , acc d g Ha da (2012), c b eE ea e e g deb c . T e d ha e bee he a c ha a e c e bed g h ch e ca ab , h gh f a a d f e e ec c c e e e

da fe; b da , ha b a f he Ba g Reg a a d S e AgeBDDK T h), T e ha a e ed ba g e ha b h e e a d ca ab e f abf a c a a d ec c h c d g a g ba ca e c . I de de a d he a e f ba g e da , e ea eed a e e h gh f ec f c h : (1) e & fa f he O a E e; (2) eb d g he g Re b c de A a

ca ab a d a a ; a d (4) ec c g e h gh ca ab

U e c e a he We e d ( e a c a a ed), he O a Ef ca c (F ca ), ed a e ed a e a a d agg e e c

e a e f he ag a a c e a f d A a a, a fee e e ch e e cha I a b h had ade e a ed b e dea g h ad a e b a che

E e. S ca ed he E a ge e R e f he E e e d bega h Meh e II (1451 14a a S a Meh e he C e h , a he age f 21, c e ed C ab gh a ab e d he B a e E e (G ee ). H e e , he O a E e e e e ced

ea f e b e e ag ab e ea e de he e g f Ka S a S e a (1520 1566) he We ed ca h S e a he Mag f ce . The eaf e , he E e e ag a

(1680 1825) h ch ga e he We he ga e g h a d a e ec a ee e g ha he a g O a E e a a f gh bac e ec

d h g a e a d g ea . The dec e (1825 bef e WWI) a d afa f he O a E e ha e ed a he c h ea a d c e e S a h e e

e e ed e e a e h gh a a h a ace fe e ha afeg a d g he e e f he

De e a he eff b F a ce a d R a ee he O a E e f W d Wa I; eE e Pa ha, a be g he Ma Ge e a f he O a a he , a he a ac h ec e

che a ed a O a Ge a a a ce e e he WWI beca e he h gh ha h d gbe ef h e a a e a he E e. O he c a h h gh , a ead f a c a da ea e ed O a E e e ded g e f c ca e e he B

Med e a ea . H e e , he a e c e; a h gh he O a a a c ha d f gh ba e ; b e e he e , he E e b ea f e af e WWI a f a e dec d

eg a ab e he e a f ced g he T ea f S e 1920 c a g ha h ehe We e e (G ea B a , I a a d F a ce) he gh e a ca e he O a

The f a c a b de f he C ea a f 1853 1856 f ced he O a E e f he f e be f he E e. A h gh he e e e e a ba g e a I a b ( .e. Ga a a b

a d Ba f C a e), acc d g Raccag (1980), he e e e e ea he f a c a ca ac


14/31


de a e ch b g. H e e , he O a c ea g f e g deb had be ad e ed he ab e ce f ba . W h he e e f F a ce a d E g a d, he I e a O a Ba

f ded 1856 a a e e; E g a d g 59%, F a ce 37% a d he O a E e ha g e4% f e h .

T e de h a ed 1922 h e b a a , d e , c a , a eg , Ke a (A a ), h ab hed he O a E e 1922 b e h g S a Meh e VI Vahdea d a ea a e f g he T h Re b c 1923. T a e h g gh , A a f e ec ed

f S e a d a e e ha h e , a d he he gh c a ed ha T h e e e e be he d e b e f he O a E e fa ed ac a d he c e e ce . W h heLa a e 1923, T e a ed eg a af e h c ec e f S e c g c e . A a ,a he f e ec ed e de ( e a e , 1923 1946), ed a e e a d d cec ca ef e e face f fe h a e f de a . A a ea ed ha a

d ce g d had b d b he g e e d e ac f ed ab , e ce , a d e . Th a he a f a e a h ch a f d c a d e b a e ed e e

Ne , A a f c ed e ab h g T e ba g e beca e he e e fec e e T e f a d g e a g g be b e h c ea f a g a a ba

ha d be ca ab e f e g he g c e e e a d cha e g g f a c a eed ae ab g a d f e g he d e h gh f a c a a a . The ef e, A a a ed c

a a ba ha a g g d a ha ; Ba ( a ed 102 f T 1000 W d Ba) a f ded 1924 a g h e e b . Z aa Ba (Ag c a Ba ) a a

ee g he f a c a eed f fa e h e e a g f ca a f he T h ec a he eA a de ed he a e f he I e a O a Ba be cha ged bac he O a Ba aa ed e a a a a e ed ba h ed ce a ba f c 1931 he heRe b c ce a ba a f a e ab hed he a e ea . F he e, A a

d c f a c e e e ba he c g g f a c a e ; S e ba E ba 1935. Bef e he a f W d Wa II, A a ef he ed T e c ea e a f a c a

f h ch ded ece a f a c a ea de e he a d e .

A h gh a e ed e e e e e f a ed b A a a a a f eb d g he Re b c af e a h ab h e f he O a E e a d he T h a f de e de ce; h e e1980 , ea ha f f a d c T e a d e b he eff c e a e c a e

aff a . The e a e e e e e e c g h ge f a c a e a d bec g a eahe g e e b dge ead g f he b g f f e g ce . A Ra da c (2010) c ahe T h f a c a c e 1994 a d 2001 (b gge f a c a a d ec c h c T h h

d ec e f T e g a d g ec d f h gh c e acc ba a ce .

M d a d Sch d e (2005) fee ha g h d g a ad a e ded g

be a a a d e g f he ec , b he ac f he ef a a e de f a c a d c e. T g a , a he P e M e 1983 af e he a c e d (1982),a he a a ch ec beh d he cha e g g a f a f he T h ec f

f c ed e f c ed h gh a a f a a e ed c a e , h ch ea aed ced g e e e he ge e a ec . a ad a f e c g he ec

he e fac ch a de e g d e a c e , e c ag g f e g d ec e eed c g b d e , a d g a ce c . H e e , he cce f a ec c

46 See F a c a T e S e : h ://e . ed a. g/ /F a c a _T e47 See W ed a: Ec c H f he O a E e

h ://e . ed a. g/ /Ec c_h _ f_ he_O a _E e48 I e ha a ce d de h , T e ha e ed 4 a e e ; he a c

1971, a d 1980; a d he 1997 a e a d (a a he "c b e a d ").


15/31


a a e e had ed b he g c e acc def c b bb e d e a e f e g deb ae ha $65 b a he e d f 1993. Acc d g R c eghe a d e (2005), h gh e e f

ab , g g c ce ab ba d e , a d ca ce a e , c ea ed a e fecb e ed a e c f de ce. F he e, ad e e effec f he f Pe a G f Wa (1990 1991) ae ba g I a b he U ed S a e ( ega e affec g T h ade) a g h ch c (c a f c a c e ce ) ca ed c e acc def c e .

U 1991, a f he ba T e e e g e e ba a d e ab h g a a e ba a b e d e ge g e e c a d e ce e b ea c a c e . The a

cha ged b he e d f 1991 bef e he ge e a e ec ha ea ; Me Y a , h a he PM e a he e, ade a ca a ed e a d g a ed a ec a e f e b

h g e he g e e e a e ba T e . I f e ea f 1994 e ba a ed e a b g g he be f ba 81 bef e 2001 c . S e f he e be e ed b e c a e a a cha e h e . Th g g f c b 1999 ha aec d f a c a c e ha a decade ( he f a 1994) a ab face he a e

f he e f ed b 2001 e g he b gge f a c a h c ha T e e e e ced ha e ba . The f a c a e d a hed he be f ba T e a d e ed a eed a he ba g ec (ab 15,000 ba e ee b ).

B ede a e a . (2009) a g e ha he T h ec , e a f ee he de e g cha ac e ed b hea eg a , ec f f e g c e , a d e e e a e c e c a ac . F g he e e f b a d b be ee he a e 1980 a d he ea T e e ed g a d e ed e a 2007 (Ra da c , 2010). T e eh gh deg ee f ca ab d g 1980 a d 90 (15 g e e , 10 f h ch e e c a

g e e ), h ch a a acc a ed b c e g f a ( e 70% b 1990ch c b dge def c f e ed b eg a e g. Whe he a e ea h a e (7.6 f ag

A g 17, 1999 (e ce e K cae ) a added he e a , h g beca e c ab e. B Decf 1999, he g e e , headed b he P e M e B e Ece (DSP: De c a c Lef Pa ), a f g a S a d b A a ge e h IMF f e ce f $10 b ( g a ag ee e a

b ). The f a b f T e f a c a d a e e e a ea $50 b . B ed(2009) ha b he e d f 2000, he a e ba d e had g e $19 b

h e ab e e $22 b a d he f e g e cha ge e e $18 b . Wh Feb a 2001, he a e f T h a de ec a ed a ha f f a e e gh .

. 200051

I $ b % I $ b % I $ b %

S a e Ba53.15 34.2 13.73 27.0 41.09 40.3

P a e Ba 73.59 47.4 27.75 54.5 44.35 43.55 La ge P a e Ba 50.53 32.6 20.49 40.2 30.10 29.5O he P a e Ba 23.06 14.8 7.26 14.3 14.25 14.0

F e g Ba 8.40 5.4 1.44 2.8 3.30 3.3TMSF Ba 13.19 8.8 3.31 6.5 13.14 12.9

T a 148.34 95.6 46.23 90.8 101.88 100.0

49 See h :// . gaba .c / efe e ce/c _ d e / e /ECONOMY.h50 See W ed a: Ec f T e , h ://e . ed a. g/ /T h_ec51 S ce: BDDK a d The Ba A c a f T e


16/31


De e e & I e e 6.90 4.4 4.70 9.2 0 0 155.24 100.0 50.93 100.0 101.88 100.0

Ba T e d g he 1990 e ed a e e ed f a c a ec ; , he bae e ea a a ed de h be e f a c a e ha ac a be . I adda ba e e fa ed ( .e. A ba b Saba c fa a d Ya K ed b K fa b h f h ch he che fa e T e ) h ch a ed he be ed a a a f f e g e

fa ed b e e f e he a g e a he g e e . The Sa g De F d SDIF (TMSF T h) a aged ba (2 1998) c ea ed 8 b 2000 a d 13 b 2001. B 2003, a

a f 11 ba h c b ed a e f $11.4 b fa ed a d he e e a fe ed he TMSF. Bef ehe 2001 c , he T h ba g ec had $117.7 b a a e ; a ge he 61 ba

b a che h 138,962 e ee . P a e ba e e FX (f e g e cha ge) hee a a a a a g e e b N e be , 2000 ($10.67 b ); h e e , he FX ed

(16.03%) b Feb a , 2001 ($8.96 b ), he d hed a d beca e e fe ea a e .

Af e he 1994 ec c c T e a d he ega e effec f he a e 1997 a d ea 1998 A aa d 1998 R a de a a f b e a g h deb defa ; e ab h e f he Ba g a d S e Age c f T e (BRSA BDDK T h) beca e ab e ece a 1999

ac ec c ce a e , T e e ed a he a c e a f ba g e a f he 1990 ; he be f ba c ea ed f 43 1980 66 1990 a d 79 b he e d

2000. H e e , 5 ba (Egeba , Ba Ka a , Y ba , Yaa ba a d U a Ba ) e e e ged deS e ba he he e e a fe ed he Sa g De I a ce F d (TMSF), ed c g he

f ba 74 b d 2001. Of he e 74 ba , 56 ba e e de e ba a d 18 e e e e& de e e ba . Of he 56 de e ba , 4 e e a e ba , 26 e e a e d e c ba

e e a e f e g ba a d 8 e e de he a age e f he TMSF.

. 55

$ 1 0 1 1 2000 2001 2002 2003

T a A e 58.2 52.6 133.5 155.2 117.7 130.1 151.4T a L a 27.3 20.6 40.2 50.9 23.4 30.1 37.0Sec e P f 6.0 5.9 22.9 17.8 41.2 52.7 69.2T a De 32.6 33.2 89.4 101.9 76.6 84.4 95.4N be f Ba 66 67 81 79 61 54 51N be f B a che 6,560 6,087 7,691 7,837 6,885 6,216 6,169

N be f Pe e 154,089 139,046 173,988 170,401 138,962 124,009 123,770

A e e f e e , b h ac a d c ec c, had a ad e e ac T e f a c a he 2001 c , h ch a he b gge f a c a h c T h h ce e ab

g Re b c 1923. T e e e e ced a f a c a c e e ha a decade (1994 & 2I ade a e ca a ba e; g f ca e e FX ; ac f e a ca age e a d c a e g e a ce a each ba ; a d a ea eg a e ca be h a he e

c ec c ea beh d he c f 1994 he he T h a 50% f a e. Mca ab a c b ed he f a c a e f he de e a ( a a

1990 d ced a h ee a c a g e e ; a d f a he a c f c a a e c ea ed a ab e a ega e affec g fe ge e a ). The f g

e e f d ca g ha a he a ec c c af e 1994 T e a be he ca e

52 See BDDK, h :// .bdd . g. /WebS e /E g h.a53 See BRSA e e a L d b E ca T a (2003) V e ab A e e f he T h Ba g S54 See BDDK: T a d a S d T h Ba g Sec Ma 15, 200155 S ce: The Ba A c a f T e , BRSA & E ca T a BRSA L d e e a , Oc be 20, 2003


17/31


e ; Me ca e c 1994; he a e 1997 a d ea 1998 A a c e c c , h ch G dfa (1998) ca ed a A a F a d c a ed ha he c a a ca e f c ag he e e c

fa e c a he e ghb g c e ; he 1998 R a c e c c a d R deb ; a d he dde c a h f he d c b bb e f he U ed S a e 2000 2001. A ed c ea c a ed b a , T e e e e ced he e ab e; he b gge ec c c 2001.

(2009) ffe f e e e a ed e e e f he e a f he T h ec f e ee e ba g e 2001 f a c a c ; he c c a e f he IMF a d he W

a f a f he e a h be ee he a e a d T e f a c a ec h gh ef ; g f ca f f f e g d ec e e ; a d d c f e ef

T e b d he E ea U (EU). B ede a , J ef , a d L dg e (2009) a g eT e ed a e cha e ge he af e a h f 2001 c a dec de ha e a e

e c f de ce. The ef e, beca e ab e a a e ha he g e e f c ca

f a e , g ec c ea ha d be ca ab e f a g e e e ea e ac e g e ege f a c g e . Ke a De , a e W d Ba e ec e ( ce e de ), a e ec de ed f he b head h e ec c ea h e cha e g g a a de g a e ec

g a e a he ec age he ba g e , ab e he e g b dge d e h ge e( e $50 b ), a d ee he f a de c .

The Ba g Reg a a d S e Age c (BRSA), a he de e de a h b a ege e he ba g ec , de f ed f f de e a a ea e g he he ba

(1) e he f he de a ed T h a TL aga he c e c e ( ac ec c a d g g ch c f a a g h ab e ca e e ed ced c f de ce TL a d f ced he a e g f ca f e g c e c e ); (2) e e ca a ba e b c ec ( ff c e d e ab ed a e ba ba f e

e e a e a d he f d he b c ec h e h gh e e a e , h

b a a c ea e f a e ba FX ); (3) de e a a e ba ef ( eff ca d effec e e a ed a e ba ca ed f he de e a he h e f a c a e df e e b g ac a h gh e e a e a d h a e c e he e )

d, e g eg a a d e f a e (E e ce f de a ce aeffec e e a d a ab e ce f a g eg a ce ade ba a e a

b h a e e a d a age e ). A f h e e defec e c e ba g f a ha e bee ffadd e ed b he BRSA a decade g ce , he e e a e a c e ed de Ba e III.

The ca a ab a d ega e effec T e ec c g h c d be dehe he e e a e a a ed. The e had bee a a e a e ec e d be ee 1983 a d 2

(1983, 1987, 1991, 1995, 1999, a d 2002) a d 9 d ffe e a e a he g e e . The e ecea f 1991, 1995, a d 1999 a a h ee a c a g e e . M e e , T

ca ce ha bee e e ed b he c a a f d ffe e e ca

ab ( he c f 1960, 1971, a d 1980; a d he 1997 a e a d (a a he "cb e a d "). The d b Fe d (2004) ha he ca c de a ea fac beh d he 2001 f a c a c . I a c a , h d gge ha ca

he 1990 T e a a he d ec e f d ded c a h ch e e a ca ga f e ha he g d f he c . F he e, f e e e ec e a

T h g e e dg e c ec e f he ac ec c a g e a d f ca eh ch e ed f e e de a a f T h a.

Whe T e ece ec c h e ed, f f h c g g e eg e , h ch ea acc ed e h d e f T e a h . F a ce

T e e f f e e ec c c e he e ch c ca e f f a a

56 S ce: S da Za a & BDDK, h :// .bdd . g. /WebS e /E g h.a


18/31


ab e ca a he e a a e e ( a a e a e ec ead g a c a g e e ); f a c a eg a , c a c , e b dge a d

a d ea g e a ce. B a e, he f a c a a d c a ach e e e f T e e ha a da e e ed b a e e; e e , e e e c e ha e bee c de g ad g ha T ed e h ba g e h gh he e e f he TMSF. Whe he ece ec c ba a ed ( ee ab e 6), be e de d ha e cce T e a ab e acce ec a af e a h f he b gge f a c a a d ec c h c de h ce 1923.

. 2001 57

$ 2001 2010 $ 2000 2001 2010

L a ($) 21.7 300.6 GDP ($) 173.6 166.8 753.2De ($) 57.4 352.6 G h (%) 6.8 5.7 8.9E ee 140,879 191,180 PPI (%) 32.7 88.6 8.8

B a che 6,983 10,066 CPI (%) 39 68.5 6.4T a A e ($) 117.7 576.0 E ($) 41.3 21.8 114.0P f /L ($) 6.0 12.5 B dge Def c ($) 19.5 19.8 30.4Ba 67 49 U e e (%) 6.5 8.4 11.011 fa ed ba e e a fe ed he TMSF; De ba (2000), U a Ba (2001), I a Ba (2001), Ke ba (2001), EgeBa (2001), Ba d Ba (2001), S eba (2001), M A d Ba (2001), T a Ba (2001), Pa ba (2002), a dI a Ba (2003). E cha ge a e $1 = 1.75 TL ed.

T e a a a e e g e ce c ; h , hea de e d f e g e ce g . The IEA da a h ha T e e e e g de e de ce a d h ghe e e g eff c e c he ed e c e acc ba a ce . E e g e f ff c e c T e a a d 30%

g a hea e a ce e e g . C e e , ade def c e e g e e h gh (Ra da2010). O f ha , T e a a de e a e eed f hea h f e g d ec a d f

f (FDI & FPI ) a e f he a ga def c . Ra da c (2010) be e e cce f e e g a eg d a ge ec c g h. A h gh T e haec ac a f e b a f he ec , b ha bee ab e cce f ace e , b dge , c e acc , a d ade def c . Re e e ed Oc be 6, 2012 ha T

b dge def c a e de ha 33.5 b a ($18.5 b ) h ea , a d F a cMeh e S e a d T e da ha h a e ceed g he ff c a f eca b e ha ha f. La Oc be(2011), he c e acc def c ba ed a ec d $78.3 b , 10% f GDP, g e

g a a e ff ha b Dece be ed d b e d g f a f he f e H e e , ff c a a ha he c e acc def c e ec ed a Oc be 2012 a de d a ge e a be $59.1 b . U e e a e ba c e ab e 11%.

G ba a f f a ce ade F e g D ec I e e (FDI ) a d F e g P f I e ebec e c c a c e f f he de e e f e e g g a d de e g c e ; h ee ce e FPI f ca ha e e a ad e e effec beca e a ea he f , he ca a

he a e a . Th cha ac e c a e a e FPI e f he h e a d a e e f e e . A Ra (2002) , FDI g e c b he ge e a ec ca be

a d he ef e e a e ha h e f FPI . I e ha a e e , he he h ca (FDh ca (FPI), ca be e e b e ce ade, h e e he ca e f a FDI, f d a c a ed h a c a e e a be e e b e (Sa a d Ta , 1999). The e a e ca f h g

e ha d, B e a d R g b (2004) a g e he ca e f e a f FPI f e e g g a

57 S ce: BDDK: S c a Cha ge Ba g V e 6, Dece be 2011, ISSN 1307 5691, e a ed b he a h58 See Re e : h :// . e e .c /a c e/2012/10/16/ e b dge dUSL5E8LG63L2012101659 See WSJ: h :// e. .c /a c e/SB10000872396390444017504577645031874268416.h


19/31


ha h e a e a e ; Be ae a d Ha e (2003), he he ha d, be e e he e e e be g ea g FPI f e e g g a e a e e a e ha de e ed c e .

4.

, ( )60

22.119.5

8.4 9.015.9

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

T e ecede ed ec c g e ece ea ha bee c b ed a d e f e gf a FDI FPI . H e e , T e ha a g a ca ch h he FDI e e f ch a he U ed S a e h ch b fa he be e FDI ec e ( ea $200 b

Ch a c e a ec d h e e ha ha f f he US (a $90 b ). A f 2010, T e$61.5 b h f FPI f e ed he e a e a d ece ed a he $32.7 b

f e ed he b d a e . The f e E ea c e h h gh FDI f ($46.2h ch a 53.2% f a FDI f 2006) T e 2006 e e; Ne he a d ($18.5 b ), U

K gd ($7.3 b ), F a ce ($7.3 b ), Ge a ($7.2 b ), a d Be g ($5.8 b ). Oh ee a FDI ece g ec f a c e , e ce ec ($58.8 b ) a he d a ec ca e a ec d h $27.9 b , a d a e ec ed ag c e ca e a ($141

fa a FPI f e e c ce ed, T e ece ed a a f $117.3 b f e g f ee e ($59 b ), $33.2 b g e e d e c deb ec e (GDDS), a d $25 b

ed ab ad. 5. , ( )62

60 S ce: The W d Ba , F e g d ec e e , e f , c e US$ cha e a ed b he a h61 See The Ce a Ba f T e , I e a a I e e P Re62 S ce: The W d Ba , F e g d ec e e , e f , c e US$ cha e a ed b he a h


20/31


1 .123.

24.524.4

25.1

5 .044.5

3 .33.33.41 .1

33.2

32.2 .

2 .20.1

12.3

1 .3

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1 2007 2 2007 3

A e f g a (c ed ) e he de e ( a d e) f 90 da e, a a habe g defa . O e f he b c e f a c a a a e de c f a e dea d a defa c ea e. Th , T e d ffe e , h ch a he a ge e f g a

he f c e f ea af e he 2001 c (12.7% 2002 a d 11.5% 2003). H e e b 2004, e f g a f g e ha dec ed a e a ageab e e e , a d he c ed de ce d g aa 3.1% 2011 e ce a e e 2009 ( ed f 3.8% 2008 5.6%) h ch a be

c b ed he g ba effec f he 2008 c . The a e f e f g c e c a a d ca a d c ed ca d , h ch a ed 4.7 b a ($2.69 b ) Se e be 2011, e b 65

7.9 b a ($4.51 b ) A 2012. I 2011, 447,000 e e e e ab e a he ca he ba (a c ea e f 183%); f he e, he f h f 2012, 154,000 e e c

a he ca d deb . A f Ja a 2012, he e a a g f ca e a e f g a ; 13.c ea e c e a , 13.51% c e c a a , a d 10.43% c ed ca d . E g e , he CEO f

Ga a Ba , a d ha g e f g a 2012 h f . He a ee f g a a e c ea g b h f Ga a a d T h ba ge e a , Ga a

a a a 1.9 e ce he f a e a d he d a 2.7%. E e h c ea ge f g a be ece h , he e ce age ( a ) he a g a

be fa a , h ch e e 3.1% 2011 a d 2.7% 2012 he da e. The W d Ba e fa da a f 2012 h ha he T h ba g d f g e (2.7%) c e c a b e

f g e f he ba g d e de e ed a . F a ce, T e e f a cbe e ha h e f I a (7.8%), he U ed S a e (4.9%), S a (4.6%), F a ce (4.2), he U ed K g(4.0%), Ma a a (3.4%), a d Ge a (3.3%). H e e , Ca ada (1.2%) a d Ch a (1.1%) had be e

e f g f g e ha T e .

. (%)66

63 See H e Da Ne , h :// .h e .c . /e g h/f a ce/11507810.a ?g d=23664 See h :// .b be g.c / e /2012 04 25/ g e f g a h f ga a a65 S ce: The W d Ba , Ba e f g a a g a (%)66 S ce: The W d Ba , Ba e f g a a g a (%) cha e a ed b he a h

$18.3$0.7$5.6

$19.0$1.5$3.5

$17.9$3.2$9.0


21/31


12.7%11.5%

6.0%5.0%

3.9% 3.6% 3.8%

5.6%

3.8%3.1%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%12.0%

14.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

: /

A c de ab e c da a d c a cha ge ace T h ba g ec af e f a c a h c f he T h de h e g f he 2001 c . The be f b

e a ca e d f 81 1999 48 a f 2012. The Ba g Reg a a d S e Age(BRSA a d BDDK T h) e e ab hed h a g c a d g eg a a hba g e a T e . B Dece be 2012, he T h ba g ec c ed f h ee

eg e b a e e; e de ba (92%), f / ha g ( e e f ee) ba (4.6%de e e & e e ba (3.4%). F e g ba e e ce he ba g ec ha a g

g ece ea ; e e , he f e g c a e ha e he ec a f f 20ha e ha ed, 2.1% a d 7.5% e ec e . Ba a c e d a e a ba g ace ec a c e a a d gage a (af e 2007) a e a g h a ea a ba a

Af e 19 IMF S a db a a ge e a d a a b g f e $50 b ( e a g $1.7 b be a d A 2013), T e f a dec ded e d g g e a h h IMF

a d a d ha d g a he a db a a ge e af e he c c f he 19h a a ge eh ch e ded Ma 2008. The a h ee a db a a ge e e e a c a a f Ta age he 2001 c ade a e ; T e ece ed $34.5 b f IMF, $15.0 b a he 17h (1999

2002), $12.8 b a he 18h (2002 2005), a d $6.7 b a he 19h a a ge e (2005 2008). T eece edge f $5 b he b IMF acc , h ch f e e T e 90 ea h

e a f a a a g ec f be g a b e be g a c b , hh fa he T h ec ha de e ed a decade ce he 2001 c .

7. , 68

% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

A e

La ge Ba (4) 74.0 75.2 74.0 74.3 75.5 74.8 73.2

Med Ba (9) 16.0 14.9 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.8 18.5

S a Ba (14) 10.1 9.8 9.5 9.3 8.2 8.5 8.2

M e De Ba 90.4 92.5 91.9 92.0 90.5 91.1 91.0

67 See The Ce a Ba f T e , I e a a I e e P Re68 S ce: BDDK: S c a Cha ge Ba g V e 6, Dece be 2011, ISSN 1307 5691, e a ed b he a h


22/31


De e e & I e e 3.7 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.0 3.4

P f /L Sha g Ba 5.9 4.3 4.9 4.8 6.0 5.9 5.6

D e

F 5 Ba 63.9 63.2 62.2 62.3 62.6 63.1 59.8

F 10 Ba 86.9 87.3 86.3 86.1 86.1 86.9 86.5

A f Dece be 2011, he f e ba (1. Ba , 2. Z aa Ba ( b c), 3. Ga a Ba , a d 4. A baT e e ed 63.47% ($405.14 b ) f he ec (31 ba ) a e de acc a

$1.12 a ($639.95 b ). Sa e a , h ee f he 13 de e e & e e bac ed 73.3% f he eg e (13 ba ) $41.64 b f a e . H gh c ce a f a eba b h e de ba a d de e e & e e ba eg e a be e ed a

b e beca e ed d e f ca . The e a a d a ce b a ba ff / ha g ba , e e f ee ba g ($56.15 b ), a b e ed he eg

ba g ec d ded f a ea b ba a e e: 7 a ge e de ba c f ab e73.2% f he d ; 9 ed e e de ba ha e 18.5%; 14 a e ba ha ea d 18 c e ba ha e a g f ca 1.4% ha e f he ba g ec . O f he 18 cba , he ha e f he 13 ba be 0.1% ( e ha $12 b ).

A g ea dea f c e be ee ba e ; f a ce, 4 f he 18 c e ba 2010 (2de ba a d 2 de e e & e e ba ) ed a e ba eg e 2011; a

f he a de e e & e e ba a ed he ed e ba eg e . The ef he T h ba g ec c f 26.5% ( b c), 35.4% (g ba e ), 27.3% b che I a b c e cha ge. O f he 48 ba T e , 35 ba c e ha e f e g ehe e h c . A , 22 f 48 ba ha e e a de f T e . F he

T h ba g ec c d be ee b e a f e g e a e d e he fac hhe ba T e c ed a a a e h b e e a e .

A f Dece be 2011, ba ac e b a e e a e c ed 84.9% d e c a d 15.1% e aE ec a d e he 2008 c , T h ba e a a ha e bee de ce d gba e ea a e d ed f 19.5% 2008 15.1% a f Dece be 2011. I 2011, ba he

ec h gh he ba b a che ded $393.27 b h f a ; f he e a , $361.7 bded b he d e c b a che a d $28.6 b a g e b he b a che e ea a e . P

he $361.7 d e ca ge e a ed a , 23.6% f he a e e f e g c e c e ($85.36 b f he $28.6 b f he e a a ge e a ed a , a d 2.3% a T h a ($657.

A h gh de ge e a b he ba e ea b a che ha bee dec g f he a feh e e he ha e f he f e g e de de he T h ba g ec ha c ea ed Dece be 2011, h ch ha e be he h ghe e e a decade.

8. 10 , 201175

% % %

Ga a Ba 13.2 Z aa Ba 17.2 Ya K ed Ba 12.4I Ba 12.0 Va f a Ba 11.4 Ha Ba 12.3Z aa Ba 10.2 I Ba 11.2 I Ba 11.9

69 La ge ba (5% h ghe ), ed (be ee 1% a d 5%), a (be ee 0.20% a d 1%), c (be 0.20%)70 See BDDK: S c a Cha ge Ba g V e 6, Dece be 2011, ISSN 1307 5691, .1971 See BDDK: S c a Cha ge Ba g V e 6, Dece be 2011, ISSN 1307 5691, .2272 See BDDK: S c a Cha ge Ba g V e 6, Dece be 2011, ISSN 1307 5691, .3075 S ce: BDDK: S c a Cha ge Ba g V e 6, Dece be 2011, ISSN 1307 5691, e a ed b he a h


23/31


A ba 10.2 Ga a Ba 10.7 Ga a Ba 10.4Ya K ed Ba 9.5 A ba 9.2 A ba 9.1

Va f a Ba 8.3 Ha Ba 8.3 E Ba 5.4Ha Ba 8.1 Ya K ed Ba 7.9 Va f a Ba 5.3F a Ba 4.3 F a Ba 6.1 Z aa Ba 4.9E Ba 3.6 De Ba 4.1 F a Ba 3.7De Ba 3.2 E Ba 3.7 ING Ba 3.3

82.6% 89.8% 78.7%

E e h gh f f he f e g e he ba g ec ha e c ea ed f 2.1% e d f 27.5% Dece be 2011; h e e , h h ge e f e had ed he he a e e (15.1%a ba T e ) f he f e g ba a e c de a . 2011 a a ed aca d ac (M&A); a d e c ba a d a e a a ba e ged b g g he ba a

add , he BRSA a a ded a ba g ce e a f e g e e g 2011. A f a ea2/3 f a 48 ba a e e de ba (31) a d ab 50% f he e ba c a f e g eO e h g g e e g; h he a decade, he e ha bee cha ge he b c ba d he e ha bee a dec e a e f ded ba .

M e ha ha f (51%) f he ba b a che a e ca ed f e b g c e (30% I a b , A a a (c ), I , A a a, a d B a). Ba he T h ba g ec ha e e a 34 c e . M f e ea e a a e ca ed N he C e T h Re b c (KKTCT h ea g c e . A h gh b a ch e a he E ea e e e e dNede a d ha a c de ab a ge ha e a g he he EU c e . Ba c ed eb a che 2011 a he d d a ea ; ba c ea ed d e c b a che b 4% (402 e b a cheb g g he a 10,468. O f h e 88 e ea b a che , 76 a e ff h e a d 12 f he a e b a che . F f he g h, ba e ed 10 b a che Bah a , 4 I a , a d e Sa d A ab a.

S g f ca (88.2%) f c e c a (b e ) a e e ge e a ed b e de ba be d f 2011; he e a g a ha ed b de e e & e e ba (4.8%) a d f / haba (7%). S a b e a a e 35% f a b e a ge e a ed b a ba he Ne e he e , he c ed a e f SME ha bee h g ce 2006, b he dec g e d 2011. J e a ba g eg e , he SME c ed a e a f da e a d a ed b

e de ba ha g 66.4% (7 f he 31 ba ); ed e ba had a e ec ab e 24.6% ha ea d 7.2% a ha d ed b he a ba . A 31 e de ba e ed 88.8% f a g e

ed e b e e . The f / ha g ba ha e h a ceab e g h h egc ea ed he a e ha e 9.5%.

A f Dece be 2011, 96.3% f c e a e e ded b he e de ba , a d 3.3% aha d ed b he f / ha g ba . P b c ba ha e he h ghe a e ha e (26.8%) h

E ce e ba (ING Ba ), he 10 ha cha ged f 2010 2011. The a ge b c baZ aa Ba , e be e ace 2011. Va f Ba , be a ge b c ba , a g f be 4 2010 be 2 2011. The f he h d a ge b c ba , Hae a ed a e a he be 6 ace. The EU c e a e age ga e 68 b a c e a , h be f T e a a d 32 b .

9. ( )78

73 See BDDK: S c a Cha ge Ba g V e 6, Dece be 2011, ISSN 1307 5691, .3274 See BDDK: S c a Cha ge Ba g V e 6, Dece be 2011, ISSN 1307 5691, .3476 See BDDK: S c a Cha ge Ba g V e 6, Dece be 2011, ISSN 1307 5691, .45 4677 See BDDK: S c a Cha ge Ba g V e 6, Dece be 2011, ISSN 1307 5691, .47 4878 S ce: BDDK: S c a Cha ge Ba g V e 6, Dece be 2011, ISSN 1307 5691, e a ed b he a h


24/31


$ % %

31 ba a = $639.95 b USD1 T e Ba 92,443 13.29 18.142 T.C. Z aa Ba 91,818 13.20 18.023 T e Ga a Ba 83,795 12.04 16.454 A ba 76,315 10.97 14.98

344,371 49.5% 67.59%

/ 4 ba a = 32.07 b USD1 A a Ka Ba 9,822 1.41 30.622 K e T Ka Ba 8,544 1.23 26.663 K e T Ka Ba 7,730 1.11 24.094 A ba a a T Ka Ba 5,978 0.89 18.63

32,074 4.64% 100% & 13 ba a = $23.79 b USD

1 e (c e ) Ba 6,510 0.94 27.362 T h aca K ed Ba 5,520 0.79 23.203 T S a Ka a Ba 5,403 0.78 22.714 T Ka a Ba 1,600 0.23 6.72

19,033 2.74% 79.99%

395,478 56.88% 61.80%

T e e a ab e ec c de e e a d f a c a g h a g h a a dec e e ec ea ed a e fec f e ab h e f he ea e a e gage d h ch ha bfa e g g eg e T h ba g d . A f Dece be 2011, gage a a e 11

a a a d 33% f e a a ( d d a a ). A dec e f gage a abee b e ed; h , 97.7% f a gage a a e ded b he a ge a d ed e ba . e de ba , a a , h d 93.3% f he gage a a e ; he e a g 6.7% de

he f / ha g ba h e a e ha e ed f 5.5% 2010 6.7% 2011. E e hhe ba g d e e e ced a g g h ea e a e gage ec , he e f

a a a d 21 b a f 2009; h a $3 f he U.S., $992 b f he UK, $f Ge a , $716 f F a ce, $657 f S a , $378 f H a d, $68 f G eece, a d $27 f R a.

The c ed ca d eg e (8% f a a e a d 25% f c e a ) c e be e f he a b e a ea T h ba g ec . The a e ha e f a ge a d ed e ba

cha ged f 2010 2011, h ch 98.1% a f Dece be 2011. The ba b e he c ed ca deg e c ded b c ba a d e gh a e ba . Ya K ed Ba a be e b h

a d 2011; he b c ba e e Va f Ba ( a ed be 7) a d Z aa Ba ( be 8). I 2010, The

U ed S a e a f he h 39% f a a ac d e b c ed ca d; he U.S. fe ace f a e b chec (30.9%), Ch a h 44.9% he f ace.

7. ( ) (%)81

79 See BDDK: S c a Cha ge Ba g V e 6, Dece be 2011, ISSN 1307 5691, .5080 See BDDK: S c a Cha ge Ba g V e 6, Dece be 2011, ISSN 1307 5691, .5381 S ce: The W d Ba , Ba ca a a e a (%) cha e a ed b he a h


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11.5%

13.7% 14.4% 13.4%11.9% 13.0% 11.8%

13.3% 13.4%

12.3% 1 6 . 5

%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% 10.5%

D e ece c e he a decade a e (1994 & 1999 T h ec c c e , 1997 1998 Ac , 1998 R a b e a d deb defa c , 2001 US d .c c a h, a d 2007 2008 f a c a

ba d de e d h d c de ab e ca a ha e ed b eg a afe de. Ba de a d ha eg a e e e e de Ba e I, II, a d III he ceg a e e e a e he de e g fac f ac a ca a e e (S , 2011

S C a , B be g B e ee G ba Ec c , e ed ha T h F a ce M eS e a d T e ba g d d ha e a ca a ade ac a f ab 17% f he

e e ed he Ba e III e e da . Rega d e f e ca a e e e de Ba e II III,T h ba g e ha a ead bee de a g ea dea f c f e e a d he a e bhea eg a de he BRSA ce 2002. F a decade ce 2001 c , T h ba ha e

e a g de ge e f he BRSA a d be de ba e a g T e ee aade ac a f 12% de he BRSA eg a de be ab e e e b a che . A g ea bba T e fee ha Ba e III g ca a e e e e a g f ca chaT h ba ce 2002 a e a ead e a g de e c e f he BRSA. W fga ge ec e ce e de f a age e a Ya K ed Ba (f h a ge ba T e ), f

ca eg a e c a d e c ea , e he g e h e ha a h E ea U c e . A U Sa g , Ha ba a age e e de ,c a ha a h gh he e e e gh be ad e e affec ed beca e f he add a

e e e de Ba e III, h gh e ec ed ha he e ea e a e e c bg h a e he dd e e . Be de , e b ha a ba g e h

c e ha e a e effec e e he c ea f ac ec c ba a ce .

8. ( ) (%)85

82 See B be g B e ee , h :// .b e ee .c / e /2010 11 24/ h ba d ha e 17e ce ba e ca a e a b e ee b e e c a e a d f a c a ad ce

83 See R Maga e e , T h ba ee f eed a Ba e II h ca a a h :// . . e /aga e/fea e/2183190/ h ba ee f eed ba e h ca a a

84 See T da Za a a c e, T h ba d ffe e ab Ba e III c e a, h :// . da a a .c / e222747 h ba d ffe e ab ba e c e a.h

85 S ce: The W d Ba , Ba ca a a e a (%) cha c c ed b he a h

7% 2013

10.5% 2019


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14.4%13.4%

11.9%13.0%

11.8%13.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Acc d g a e e ea e A g 6, 2012, he BRSA e ed ha he a e e f he T hec ha eached $727.87 b ($1 = 1.75 TL ed) a f J e 2012. The ec a a e ha c

b $32.04 b (4.6%) c a g he e d f a ea ($30.63 b ). A f J e 2012, a e e 5f a a e a g $421.44 b . I he a e e d, he ec f $6.61 b

c ea e f $674.85 (11.4%) c a ed he a e e d f e ea ($605.80 ). ec e a e (ROA) a d e e (ROE) a e 1.9% a d 16.3% e ec e , h

c de ab h gh c a ed he e f ba he E e. The T h ba g ecade ac a da d a ha bee h ghe ha Ba e II Ba e III CAR e e e ce 2002. A he

e ed ece , he ba g ec CAR 16.5% a f J e 2012, h ch e e ch h ghe ha10.5% CAR e e e de Ba e III h ch be f effec b Ja a 2019. The ec

e f g a (g ) ha e c ea ed gh f he e d 2011 e e ; h e e , he h gh e a a ed, c b ed he g h e e e ced c ed f ece ea , a d

c ea e d e he be f a ha ha e g e defa .

U a fac e c e g h e ec a , ec c a d ca ab , c a e a , e de e ed f a c a e a d de acc g a da d ca ce a f e ce

dec . A a e e g g a e , acc d g IMF I e a a F a c a S a c , T e f ac f g f e g f f ( ee f g e 1.8) c a ed c e ch a B a

Af ca ( ce e), K ea ( h ee e e), a d S a ( h ee e e). F e g f be c ea ed g f ca f T e a g a ed e e c T e

e a a ec g ed M ga S a e Ca a I e a a (MSCI) e d ce ; accT e e e e ed 0.05% f he MSCI c a ed he US (53.99%), S a (1.32%), K ea (0.86%), I d a(0.20%), Me c (0.31%), B a (0.21%), a d P a d (0.05%). If T e ea a ge e FDI, he a , de e ba f a c a (NBFI ) ch a ce c af d , ea g a d e e ca a f , a f h ch ge he acc e ha 20% a d h

ba g ec c e d a e h e 85%.

T e f a cceeded f g ad a ce f f ag ha a affec g f a d ec( e b e e a c e , a ab e f ca e e d e , f a c a eg a , e cha ge a e c e ). M e a c g e ed b a f a a ge g f a e

de e de ce a ba f c ed de e g d e a c e . F ca c ha bee ge a ed a d he b c deb GDP a ab e dec g. T h Ba ge e a ha e hee , a d eg a a d e a e ch gh e ha bef e. The c e c af a . Whe ac ec c a age e , T e ha ad ed a he be ac ce (R d , 2009).

86 BDDK (BRSA) P e Re ea e (NO: 2012/21) 6/8/ 2012: Ge e a O f he T h Ba g Sec , J e 201287 S ce: MSCI M ga S a e Ca a I e a a e d ce , A W d Ba c d e (20

Ba F a c a I a d Ca a Ma e T e


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The Ba e C ee Ba g S e (BCBS) c ea b e ed d g he ece c c e age f he ca a f a e de Ba e II a ff c e a d eeded be e g he ed; addba d de e e effec e ca g a d ff ba a ce hee , a e a de a ee e . The e f da e a def c e c e he ba g e e e e de ab g facd g, a d af e a h he 2008 f a c a c . A a e ha ced ea e f c e age, he

d ced a e ed a e a (VaR) ca a e e e ba ed a 12 h e d f f a c a e .

The C ee a d ced e h g ca ed e ec a f b h ba g a d ad g bba a e e ed ca h ghe ca a . The ad e e effec f c e a c ed e e aba de a e , e a d ec e f a c g ac e bef e a d d g he c ba g e b he b ade ec a g f ca affec ed a e . W h he e e add

e ha ced c e age, Ba e III a da d a e ed ce c c ca h ch e c ac he f a c a e .

Ba ha e de e e h ch ca a a de f c e a c ed beca e hc ce bef e ega d g ca a cha ge be g add e c c ca . G g f a d, bbe b ec a ca a cha ge f a a e e . D g he 2008 c , he C ee af a Ba e II c e age f c e a defa , h ch d d e e add e he a c

e g f c ed a a ad e (CVA). The e a e f h a c ach g ea e ha h e e e a ed c e a defa . M e e , be e c a e a ac ce a e a d ced de Ba e III.

T add e he e f he b d f e ce e a d ff ba a ce hee e e age he ba g C ee d c g he e e age a h ch e ded e he ba ed ca a

The e ed e ab e ha bee a fa a fea e e f a c a c ch a he a e ea 1998 A a c , 1999 a d 2001 T h c . W h he e e age a , ba be b d a d ff ba a ce hee e e age beca e Ba e III e f ce a (f ) ha e eca b d e e age. Th a , e ed ec he ba g e a d he b ade eca f de ab g de e e ag g ce e . The a h g ha he e e age aca c a ed he a e a (e a e ) ac c e d de.

The C ee fe ha Ba e II c e e fa ed c e a f he e a e a ed cac e , e ec a a d e e ff ba a ce hee eh c e , fac , acc d g Ba e II a a a e b e f he e a d c e age f he eg a ca a e

c ea e. T be e ha d e h a e , he BCBS d c g d g e defa ( La e a e ed c d c e e d g a ec c ece f a c a e ded ec (d a d) f he c ed f . The C ee a d ha ece ed a be f

f h ch a ac d be g c d c ed. The e a de e e a e; e f he ha e age bab f defa ( PD ) e a e; a d e f a a e age f h c PD e a e fe e c a .

The C ee d ced d a ; (1) h e d L d C e age h ch be f effec a f 2015. Th ba ca ea ha ba ha e h gh a

a g e e a d ced b he LCR. I e f ha , ba be e ed a a e gha e f a h g (30 da ) de a ec f ed ac e d e ; (2) g e d

88 See Ba e III: S e g he g he e e ce f he ba g ec , .1389 See Ba e III: S e g he g he e e ce f he ba g ec , .1490 See Ba e III: S e g he g he e e ce f he ba g ec , .1591 See Ba e III: S e g he g he e e ce f he ba g ec , .16


28/31


F d g Ra ( NSFR ) f h ch he e e a ched ed f 2018. W h NSFR, ba e ed ha e ab e f d g ace add e f d g eed e a e ed e ea e d. T

h gh NSFR e e ha ba d ca ge e c a d a che hee . I beca e e c b a he 2008 c e f ed ha a g d be f f a c a e ed ab e f f f d g h ch ade he e e e e ab e he f a c a a d ec

h c d g e . Wha h ea ha d a e be bac ed h 100% NSFR. I e de a ea e a e gage , NFSR ca be a a 65%.

. 93

% % % % %

Ma D b 20% 15% 10%Ma A ab eDec ea e CAR Af eD b

100b 70b 40b

E e ce f Ge e aRe e e f P e a R

Add a 15%f Ge e a Re e e

Add a 10%f Ge e a Re e e

A h gh gh ed b he Ba e C ee Ba g S e , hea h a d g ba g e e e e a T e ec c g e . E ab h e f he Ba g Reg a a d SAge c (BRSA BDDK T h), c ea f a de e de ce a ba , a d e c f af a e e e he be ef he g e e a e ab g a ch c e ec c ec e 2001 c , h ch a c de ed he b gge f a c a a d ec c h c he h f T e a ce . P ca ab ( e a g e e he a h ee a a e a e ec h he EU ha a ce c ea ed a e ac a d e ed e he a e e f e

e c de e g T e e f FDI a d FPI . A decade f a f ade , f c e a d e e e ha d , T e de e ed e be g he 16h a geec he d h e $1.087 GDP. Whe ba a c e h gh he

d a e be g da ed, a e g e e c , ba a e a e E ea ca e fac g e e g deb e ; ba T e , bef e, d g af e 2008 c , ha ag e e ece e a f a c a ; a d bab e a , he e ha bee a

f a ba da ba c T e ce 2003.

P ca ab a d ec e a e e a ha e bee he ea ea beh d Tacc ed h f ec c gg e d g ch f he 1980 a d 1990 . V e ce, cec c ab , a d c a e ag ed T e a cha ce f f a d de e e a d he c a g ad a d f ed a a e f cha . E e e T e a ab ec d af e g e , he ce a ed e f e b he d e c f e g h c .

a a e a e ec cc ed be ee 1983 a d 2002 (1983, 1987, 1991, 1995, 1999, a d 2002) h ch 9 d ffe e a e a he g e e . M e e , he e ec ea f 1991, 1995, a d

d ced a h ee a c a g e e . F he e, T e ca ade e e ha e bee e e ed a f d ffe e e b he c a ed f ce ca g f

ab ( he c f 1960, 1971, a d 1980; a d he 1997 "c b e a d " h ch h g eha a a b he a ed f ce a g he g e e e g ).

92 Shea a & S e g e The Ne Ba e III F a e : I ca f Ba g O ga a 3/30/ 201193 S ce: BRSA (BDDK) Ba g Reg a a d S e Age c f T e94 See CIA The W d Fac b a e ha T e GDP ( cha g e a ) $1.087 (2011 e

( ff c a e cha ge a e) $778.1 b (2011 e .).


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The ca a ade ac a f ba T e a e age b a a h ghe ha he ba

he E eg . Acc d g a e e ea e A g 6, 2012, he BRSA e ed ha he a e T h ba g ec ha eached 1.27 TL $727.87 b ($1 = 1.75 TL ed). The T hba g ec ca a ade ac a da d a (CAR) ha bee h ghe ha Ba e II (8%) Ba e III b 2019) e e e ce 2002. A he BRSA e ed ece , he ba g ec CAR 16.5% a2012, h ch g f ca h ghe ha he 10.5% CAR e e e de Ba e III h ch be fb Ja a 2019.

T e decade g c a , ec c a d ca ab ( a e e ag e e a h ee e ec ce 2002) f e ed a g ea dea f ec c de e e , h ch c ea ed e g e a a f he c e . H e e , T e c e e ha c g c a a d ac ec c c e f he e he e e ce f baBec g he 16h a ge ec he d e a e e T e e he d

e f ec c cce a f e a e e e gh h . T e eed

ad a age f fa ab e ac a d c ec c e e ac e f b e a c a ea cg e g h; h gh ba e e a e, c e acc def c , b dge def c a d ade def

I e e e gh f T e e e ha g a a ge c e acc def c beca e h gh e e g c e ec c g h h ch e d c ea e a a e c e acca e e h e g a d e e $70 b . H e e , T h ec be e e ha h

e a d c e g ad a de ce d e d f 2012 ee he ce a ba g da ce f he fa a he ba g d c ce ed, he BRSA e c age f he de e e f he Tba g ec de bec e a f f edged f a c a e c g e f he fc e f a de f a c a d :

The a ce ec e ed a d ff c e ; he ef e, eed f he de e A e he c e (OTC) a e f ec e d e e a d e ab h e ece a Ve e ca a f h d be f ed a d he a b c ffe g (IPO) h d be e a ded P a a eed c e, a be e e a b acce e a ed. The ec e a e eed be f he de e ed c de , de a e , a d he

e e e .

The a h he ac edge he f U e Ma a a, Sa a a (U a ). He e ha P f. D . Ab Ha a Md. I a, U e Ma a a, Sa a a U a , f h he f ch a e a d f h d ec a d g da ce he d e a . He d a e ha P f

Ab Ma , a d A c a e P f. D . M ha ad Ja U e Ma a a, Sa a a U a f he

J h Ta ha bee each g b e c ca , a e g, f a ce a d a he bc e f e e a ea . S ce 2011 he ha bee each g a U e Ma a a, Sa a a (U a ), ha ed a e ec e . J h ha e ed a a e f eade h e ech g c ae e e ce c a e a age e c de a fac g a age , e eg a a age ,

a age , e a a b e a age , e ea e a d ec , ec d ec , ed ec f g ba a fac g & c e e , a d e a d ec . O e 20 ea f fe e e ce a e , a fac g, e a , a e g, h a e ce, b dge g, f eca

c g, ISO e e a , e d c d c , e a a a e g, a d a e ab e J h b g ea d e a e a d ca e h c a each g e

g ad a g f Sa F a c c S a e U e (SFSU) 1997 h a BSc deg ee b e adhe a ffe ed a a age e a N e Ne he e he ed f 1997 2001, a d he he


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ed F e c I e a a , LSI L g c, a d T e a a e ea . Wh e he a e ed, he ac e g h f a e (MBA) deg ee 1999 a U e f Ph e , a d he he dec ded

ec d a e (MSc Te ec ca ) a G de Ga e U e 2002.

1. A e , B., Cha , K. K., M e, A., & Th a , S. (2012). Ba e III: I he c e e ha he d ea eE e e , I e a a Re e f F a c a A a , h ://d .d . g/10.1016/ . fa.2012.08.004

2. A ge , P., C e c, L., C d a, V., Ga bac a, L., Ge a , A., L ca , A., M , R., R ge , W., Va deHe e , S. & V e , J. (2011). Ba e III: L g Te I ac Ec c Pe f a ce a d F c aA a ab e a SSRN: h :// .c /ab ac =1785522 h ://d .d . g/10.2139/ .1785522

3. Ba g, T. & G dfa , I. (1999). F a c a Ma e C ag he A a C IMF S aff Pa e 44. Ba , S. (2007). Re a b She a Ba Cha a , U.S. Fede a De I a ce C a 200

Ma age e a d A ca C fe e ce, Pa , F a ce, J e 25, 20075. Be ae , G. & Ha e , C., R. (1998). Ca a F a d he Beha f E e g g Ma e E Re

NBER W g Pa e Se e , 66696. B ede a , H., J ef , M., & L dg e , C., J. (2009), T e Re a a ce: F Ba g CEc c Re a , B a E. a d I. McD a d, S cce e f he I e a a M e a F d: US e f C e a a W , Pa g a e Mac a

7. B e , F. A., & R g b , R. (2004). Wh A e Ca a F S M ch M e V a e I E e g g ThaDe e ed C e ? A a ab e a SSRN: h :// .c /ab ac =884381

8. Ca , G. & Me d a, E. (1997). Ra a he d beha a d he g ba a f ec e a eM e , U e f Ma a d.

9. R c eghe , C., V. & e , M. (2005). Ch c e f he T h F a c a C e f 2000 2001,I a b : B a U e P e , 2005

10. Ca a a, J. (2010). Wh Ba e III a e f La A e ca a d Ca bbea f a c a a e . Ge e aMa age , Ba f I e a a Se e e

11. C a , T., F. & Ha a, D. (2011). Ba Beha Re e Ba e III: A C C A a

(Ma 1, 2011). IMF W g Pa e N . 11/119. A a ab e a SSRN: h :// .c /ab ac =1860182 h ://d .d . g/10.2139/ .186018212. E , D., J. (2010). Ba e III, he Ba , a d he Ec , The B g I , J 23, 201013. Fe d , M. (2004). T h F a c a C f 2001: D d P c P a A R e? I e e

Ma age e a d F a c a I a , 1/200414. F he , S. (1998). The A a C : a V e F he IMF J a f I e a a Ma age e a d

Acc g 9(2)15. G d , M., B. (2003), A R Fac M de F da f Ra g Ba ed Ba Ca a R e , J

F a c a I e ed a , . 1216. Ha da , J. I. (2012). "S e e g C ed R he E e," W d Ec c , W d Ec c ,

13(1), . 123 13617. H , J. (2010). "Ba e e ha e e ac ec " ( df).

h :// . e e .c /a c e/2011/02/16/ ecd ba e dUSLDE71E23Q20110216

18. I g e , S. (2012). Ba e III I S e a d S ge : The e e a e a a e ba e h :// e. .c /a c e/SB10000872396390444799904578050150684344438.h

19. Jac , P. (1999). Ca a Re e e a d Ba Beha : The I ac f he Ba e Acc d , Ba eC ee Ba g S e W g Pa e , N . 1, A

20. K h he , J. (2010). Se a e a e ee g Wa S ee efh :// . bc. .c / d/38258047/38316915

21. Ma , P. (1998). C ag : M a Effec , S e , a d J be ee M e EW g Pa e , WP/98/142 Se e be 1998.

22. M d , A., & Sch d e , M. (2005). Ec c G h T e , 1960 2000, T e a he CF C Re EU Acce , Wa h g DC: I e a a M e a F d, 2005

23. Na , D. K. (1998). The 1997 98 A a F a c a C , CRS Re f C g e , Feb a 6, 199h :// .fa . g/ a /c /c a a2.h


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24. N c a , M. & F , J. (2011). "A C e f he Ba e C ee Ba g S e " Re eF a c e, N . 10 2011 & Q2 2012

25. O , Z. (2009). Be d he 2001 F a c a C : The P ca Ec f he Ne Pha e f Ne LRe c g T e Re e f I e a a P ca Ec , 16(3) . 409 432

26. O e R be, I., & Pa a ba , C. (2010). I ac f Reg a Ref La ge a d C e F aI , I e a a M e a F d, S aff P N e, 3 N e be , SPN/10/16$

27. Q g , L. (2011). Ba e III: Ach e ea BNP Pa ba : Ec c Re ea ch De a e , Ma28. Raccag , M. (1980). The F e ch Ec c I e e he O a E e , I e a a J a

M dd e Ea S d e , Ca b dge U e P e , 1980, . 34329. Ra a, L., Ba e , M.R. (2003). A W d Ba C S d Re : N Ba F a c a I

Ca a Ma e T e W d Ba , Wa h g , D.C. A 2003.30. Ra , A. (2002). FDI C b Ca a F a d I e e Ca ac , NBER W g

9204.31. Ra da c , L. (2010), The 2008 09 C T e : Pe f a ce, P c Re e a d Cha e ge

f S a g he Rec e , OECD Ec c De a e W g Pa e , N . 819, OECD P b

d : 10.1787/5 36 7d320 e32. Sa , L. & Ta , M. (1999). H M e , Acc g Labe a d he Pe a e ce f Ca a F De e g C e : A E ca I e ga , J a f De e e Ec c , 59, . 337

33. S , P. (2012), "S e a ca I a Ba a d Ca a Reg a Cha e ge ", OECD EcDe a e W g Pa e , N . 916, OECD P b h g. d : 10.1787/5 g0 8c 8 6 e

34. Wea de , G. (2011). "EU deb c : I a h h a g d g ade". The G a d a (UK), Re e ed 2Se e be , 2012 h :// .g a d a .c . /b e /b g/2011/ e /20/e deb c ad g ade. Re e ed 20 Se e be 2012.

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