antecedents and consequences of transitional pathways to adulthood among university students:...

Antecedents and Consequences of Transitional Pathwaysto Adulthood Among University Students: 18-Year LongitudinalStudy

Katariina Salmela-Aro • Noona Kiuru •

Jari-Erik Nurmi • Mervi Eerola

Published online: 19 September 2013

� Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Abstract This study combined sociological life-course

modeling on education-, employment-, residency-, and

partnership/parenthood-related transitions with a psycho-

logical life-span approach to achievement and social

strategies by examining the extent to which achievement

and social strategies, and depressive symptoms contribute

to pathways to adulthood among 182 first-year Finnish

university students who were followed for 18 years. The

Life History Calendar was used to collect data on indi-

vidual life histories. The participants followed six path-

ways to adulthood that differed with respect to postponing

(slow starters, singles with slow career) or being on time

(career and family, fast starters, fast partnership, and late

parenthood, career with unsteady partnerships) in various

transitions. Those who followed a postponed pathway

showed more depressive symptoms, less optimism, and

more task-avoidance in both social and achievement situ-

ations at the beginning of their studies than those who

followed a non-postponed pathway. Following a postponed

pathway predicted a higher level of depressive symptoms

later, after controlling for initial depressive symptoms.

Keywords Achievement and social strategies �Depressive symptoms � Life-course � Life-span model

of motivation � Pathways � Longitudinal � Transition

to adulthood � Postponed pathways � On and off time

Introduction

The transition from adolescence to adulthood is character-

ized by frequent changes in status in terms of leaving the

parental home, finishing education and entering working

life, forming a romantic partnership, and becoming a parent

(Elder and Shanahan 2007). In line with the sociological

life-course model, making these five transitions is often

considered to be the standard for reaching adulthood

(Shanahan 2000). However, young people may follow dif-

ferent transitional pathways in different life domains. In the

past years, the transition to adulthood has been increasingly

characterized by heterogeneity and uncertainty (Cohen

et al. 2003; Settersten and Ray 2010). Although some

research has recently been conducted on the transition from

adolescence to adulthood in the context of the life-course

model of development (Howard et al. 2010), less is known

about extent to which individual psychological resources

and characteristics contribute to different transitional

pathways. Possible candidates for such antecedents are

depressive symptomatology (Brown et al. 1992; Salmela-

Aro et al. 2012) and the ways in which people deal with

different challenges, such as the strategies they employ in

their studies and affiliate situations (Nurmi et al. 1995). In

turn, success in dealing with different life transitions, as

evidenced in various transitional pathways, may contribute

to people’s subsequent depressive symptoms (Salmela-Aro

2009; Schulenberg et al. 2004). Our study presents an

application of sociological sequence analysis to the field of

K. Salmela-Aro � N. Kiuru � J.-E. Nurmi

Department of Psychology, University of Jyvaskyla,

Box 35, Jyvaskyla, Finland

K. Salmela-Aro (&)

Helsinki Collegium for Advanced Studies, University

of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland

e-mail: [email protected]

M. Eerola

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Turku,

Turku, Finland

123

J Adult Dev (2014) 21:48–58

DOI 10.1007/s10804-013-9178-2

developmental psychology, linking two types of longitudi-

nal data: the sequences of young people’s life transitions

and longitudinal data on psychological resources. The

present study investigated the extent to which university

students’ depressive symptoms, and the strategies they

deploy in achievement and social situations at the beginning

of university studies would predict their transitional path-

ways, and the extent to which different pathways contribute

to depressive symptoms later in adulthood.

It might be assumed that an important antecedent of

developmental pathways to adulthood is individuals’

depressive symptoms. Depressive symptomatology is

likely to decrease people’s active efforts and persistence in

dealing with various age-graded tasks and related chal-

lenges and demands (Salmela-Aro et al. 2012). Previous

research has shown, for example, that depression during the

transition to adulthood curtails the attainment of occupa-

tional and interpersonal developmental tasks appropriate

for full adult status (Reinherz et al. 1999; Schulenberg et al.

2004). However, depressive symptoms contribute to peo-

ple’s ways of dealing with transitions, but also that their

transitional pathways may impact on their depressive

symptoms. For example, adolescents’ progress in the

attainment of their developmental tasks on time is posi-

tively related to later depressive symptoms (Brunstein et al.

1999; Salmela-Aro et al. 2011).

Mastering various role transitions in young adulthood

requires efficient ways to deal successfully with achieve-

ment and affiliate situations (Nurmi 2004). In line with the

life-span model of motivation, successful dealing with

different kinds of challenges and problems is influenced by

the cognitive and behavioral strategies people employ

(Dietrich et al. 2012; Cantor and Langston 1989; Maatta

et al. 2007). Such strategies consist of two substages

(Nurmi et al. 1996). First, previous experiences provide a

basis for anticipations of what will happen later on, and

their optimism and pessimism. Second, expectations and

optimism play a role in constructing means of dealing with

various challenges in terms of planning, monitoring, and

investing effort in the task at hand (Nurmi et al. 1996). For

example, some individuals expect to fail in challenging and

demanding achievement situations and therefore avoid

them rather than making an active effort (Lay et al. 1992).

One strategic reason for adopting this kind of task-avoid-

ance is described as self-handicapping (Berglas and Jones

1978). Other individuals may apply active, task-focused

strategies when they are faced with a challenging situation,

such as ‘‘illusory glow’’ optimism (Cantor 1990) and active

coping (Aspinwall and Taylor 1992). Social optimism can

be assumed to provide a basis for successful coping in

interpersonal contexts, because it is characterized as posi-

tive expectations concerning social situations and active

seeking for social support and advice in challenging

situations. In turn, social pessimism is an avoidance strat-

egy, which is manifested by failure expectations in social

situations and withdrawal from social relationships (Cantor

and Langston 1989). Although achievement and social

strategies have been found to contribute to people’s success

in different situations, no previous research has been con-

ducted on the extent to which they contribute to the tran-

sitional pathways to adulthood.

Achievement and social strategies can also be influenced

by depressive symptoms. Depressive symptoms are likely

to increase pessimistic and avoidant strategies in both

achievement and affiliate situations (Abramson et al. 1978;

Sweeney et al. 1986). Previous research has shown that

individuals deploying optimistic and task-focused strate-

gies in achievement contexts report less depressive symp-

toms and higher self-esteem than those who use pessimistic

and avoidant strategies (Norem and Cantor 1986; Showers

and Ruben 1990).

The present longitudinal study combined the life-course

and life-span models of motivation with the aim of

examining the following research questions:

1. Do depressive symptoms predict university students’

achievement and social strategies at the start of their

studies? We assumed (H1) that depressive symptoms

are positively related to avoidance and negatively

related to success expectations in both the achievement

and social contexts (Maatta et al. 2007).

2. Do achievement and social strategies predict students’

pathways to adulthood, after controlling for level of

depression? We expected (H2) that a high level of

avoidance and a low level of success expectations in

both the achievement and social contexts would

predict postponed pathways (Maatta et al. 2007).

3. Do transitional pathways to adulthood predict stu-

dents’ subsequent depressive symptoms in adulthood,

after controlling for depressive symptoms at the start

of their studies? We assumed (H3) that postponed

pathways would predict later depressive symptoms

(Schulenberg et al. 2004).

Methods

Participants and Procedure

This study is part of the ongoing Helsinki Longitudinal

Student Study (HELS study; Authors). The participants were

182 (40 men and 142 women) undergraduates who started

their studies at the University of Helsinki in 1991 when the

data collection began. They were born in or around 1970,

with mean age at beginning of follow-up of’ 20.76 years,

SD = 1.49 (range 18–25). The majors they studied were

Transitional Pathways to Adulthood 49

123

(1.7 % no answer) Psychology (12.8 %), History (5.6 %),

Finnish (12.8 %), French (5.0 %), English (10.6 %), Geog-

raphy (11.7 %), Biology (20.6 %), Sociology (10.0 %), and

Economics (10.6 %). Time to graduation in these majors is

about 7 years. Students begin their major studies immedi-

ately on university entry, which is partially based on success

in the entrance examination for that specific major.

Originally, a total of 304 university undergraduates were

investigated during the autumn term of their first study year

(1991). All the students who were taking the introductory

courses in Biology, Geography, Economics, English, Finnish,

French, History, Psychology, and Sociology, and were present

when the data collection began were furnished with pre-

liminary information about the study and asked whether they

would consent to participate. None of them refused. They were

then asked to give some background information (e.g., gender,

parents’ education), self-evaluation of their achievement and

social strategies, and amount of depressive symptoms. Eigh-

teen years later (2008, mean age 38), the participants in the

original sample were contacted and asked to complete the Life

History Calendar (LHC) (Caspi et al. 1996) and depressive

symptoms scale. Those who did not respond were contacted by

telephone. Of the original participants, 207 returned the

questionnaire (retention rate 68 %). Attrition analyses

revealed no statistically significant differences between drop-

outs and non-dropouts in terms of age, gender, parental edu-

cation, or depressive symptoms at the beginning of the study.

The sample of the present study comprises subjects from

the original sample who were under the age of 25 at the

first measurement point (excluded were 25 persons). Con-

sequently, the sample for the present study comprises 182

participants (40 men and 142 women).

Measures

The LHC (Caspi et al. 1996) was completed in 2008, ret-

rospectively reporting on key life events during the years

1991–2008 (residence, partnership, parenthood, and career).

Events (horizontal rows in LHC) such as family events (i.e.,

getting married, divorcing, and having children) were

charted (columns in LHC). For each event, the participants

indicated the year it commenced its continuation (if rele-

vant) and the year it finished. Thus, through the LHC, the

occurrence, timing, and duration of each life event were

recorded annually between 1991 and 2008 and coded as

follows: (1) partnership (single S, partnership P, out-of-

partnership D), (2) parenthood (no children NC, children C),

and (3) career (studying FS, working W, other E).

Transitional Pathways to Adulthood

In a previous paper (Salmela-Aro et al. 2011), we studied

the attainment of specific developmental tasks on the

pathway to adulthood in several life domains simulta-

neously. Life histories are traditionally analyzed in terms

of events marking transitions from one status to another.

However, the event-history methodology is not suitable for

multidimensional data when the number of states, and

hence the number of transitions, becomes very large.

Consequently, we used sequence analysis, a data-mining

method that was initially developed in bioinformatics to

analyze molecular sequences as texts (Durbin et al. 1998).

Sequence analysis, an optimal matching procedure which

empirically identifies typical developmental sequences in

the data, is an ideal tool for studying young people’s

pathways (McVicar and Anyadike-Danes 2002). It has

been used to examine the role of socioeconomic predictors,

such as gender, age, education, and family-related vari-

ables, in career transitions (e.g., Biemann et al. 2012;

McVicar and Anyadike-Danes 2002; Stovel et al. 1996).

Psychologists have only recently started to recognize the

potential of analyzing sequences (e.g., Huang et al. 2007);

therefore, research focusing on transition patterns through

the education system and to working life has been limited

to socioeconomic predictors (McVicar and Anyadike-

Danes 2002). Little is known about how psychological

factors, such as achievement and social strategies, con-

tribute to individuals’ transition patterns. Applied to life-

course analysis, sequence analysis means aligning two life

sequences by inserting, deleting, or substituting a life status

to transform one life sequence into another (Abbott and

Forrest 1986). Categorical life history data could therefore

be interpreted as short narratives of life experiences.

Through pair-wise alignment of sequences by inserting,

deleting, or substituting an element in the sequence, the

aim is to find typologies of sequences without making

assumptions about the underlying probability models that

have generated the data. Optimal matching was used to

obtain pair-wise distances of the participants’ life sequen-

ces. A distance matrix, with Ward’s clustering algorithm,

was further used to cluster similar life sequences to obtain a

typology of life patterns. The calculations were carried out

by using the TraMiner program in R (mining sequence data

in R, version 1.6-2; Gabadinho et al. 2010).

Six pathways were identified: ‘‘fast starters’’ (15 %)

entered into a steady partnership soon after embarking on

their university career and made the transition to parent-

hood during their studies. They moved into full-time

employment earlier than on average and were unlikely to

begin working life as singles and without children. Indi-

viduals on the ‘‘fast partnership and late parenthood’’

(15 %) pathway started a partnership early during their

university studies and made the transition to working life in

average time but moved into parenthood relatively late.

Those on the ‘‘career and family’’ (24 %) pathway moved

into working life after graduation, and then into a

50 K. Salmela-Aro et al.

123

partnership, which was unlikely to break up. In other

words, their life transitions were typically anchored in

graduation from university. Those characterized by ‘‘career

and unsteady partnerships’’ (15 %) entered into a partner-

ship early, while still studying. Although living in a part-

nership for most of the time, they experienced repeated

break ups during the follow-up. Individuals in this transi-

tional pathway moved into full-time employment early and

were unlikely to have children. ‘‘Slow starters’’ (19 %)

prolonged their university studies, formed a partnership

late, and typically had children late, if at all. This pathway

was characterized by late, if any, experience of the key life

transitions. ‘‘Singles with slow career’’ (12 %) remained

single and their transition to working life occurred late. The

final solution explained 45 % (pseudo R2) of the total

variability of the multidimensional life sequences. This

means that considerable individual variation remained

within each typology that in a larger data set could have

been identified by a more fine-graded classification of the

participants’ life statuses in relation to their partnership,

parenthood and educational and employment histories.

The Strategy Questionnaire

Achievement and social strategies were assessed at the first

measurement (in 1991) using the Strategy and Attribution

Questionnaire (SAQ) (Nurmi et al. 1995) rated on a 4-point

rating scale (1 = ‘‘strongly agree,’’ 4 = ‘‘strongly dis-

agree’’). The optimism in achievement situations scale

measures the extent to which people expect to succeed in a

task and are not overly apprehensive of failure (6 items,

e.g., ‘‘When I get ready to start a task, I am usually certain

that I will succeed in it.’’). The task-avoidance in

achievement situations scale measures the extent to which

people tend to behave in ways that prevent them from,

rather than help them in, carrying out a task (5 items, e.g.,

‘‘What often happens is that I find something else to do

when I have a difficult task in front of me.’’). The social

optimism scale measures the extent to which people are

optimistic in social situations (4 items, e.g., ‘‘I think that I

usually get along well with people.’’). The social with-

drawal scale measures the extent to which people have a

tendency to avoid social situations and feel anxious in them

(6 items, e.g., ‘‘I avoid group situations and spend my time

alone or with one other person.’’). The factor score scale

reliabilities and Cronbach’s a reliabilities were as follows:

optimism in achievement situations (.80, .76), task-avoid-

ance (.80, .74), social optimism (.84 and .83), and social

withdrawal (.82 and .82).

Depressive symptoms were assessed using a revised

version of Beck’s Depression Inventory (Beck et al. 1979;

see also Salmela-Aro and Nurmi 1996). The subjects were

asked to rate 13 items (e.g., ‘‘I often feel sad’’) on a 5-point

scale ranging from (1) not at all true of me to (5) very true

of me. The Cronbach’s a reliability was .86 in 1991 and .90

in 2008.

Analysis Strategy

A schematic model summarizing the aims of this study is

shown in Fig. 1. To investigate our research questions, we

specified a structural equation model for each strategy

which combines the models for achievement and social

strategies, and depressive symptoms at the start of the

follow-up, transitional pathways, and finally depressive

symptoms at the end of the follow-up.

Model for Strategies Accounting for Depressive

Symptoms

Factor models for social and achievement strategies were

built after controlling for the level of depressive symptoms

at the start of the follow-up by defining each of the four

Depressive

Symptoms

(year 1991)

Strategy

(year 1991)

Transitional

pathways

to

Adulthood

(from year

1991 to

year 2008)

Depressive

Symptoms

(year 2008)

ItemItemItem Item Item Item

Fig. 1 Schematic model for

each strategy summarizing the

aims of the study


123

strategy component models (social optimism or social

withdrawal and achievement optimism or task-irrelevant

behavior) as

yijs ¼ kigsj þ eijs

gsj ¼ g0s þ csxdep91j þ #sj

where yijs is the ith item measuring a particular strategy s,

and gsj is the factor corresponding to that strategy for

individual j, ki is the factor loading of item i, and eijs is the

unique factor of item i for strategy s. The hierarchical

structure of the factor model assumes that depressive

symptoms at the start of the follow-up may affect the

strategies, and this is accomplished in the model by

allowing each strategy factor to depend on the individual’s

depression score. In the hierarchical factor model, the

parameter g0s is the mean level of the factor s, and cs is the

regression coefficient of depressive symptoms score xdep91j

at the start of studies, and #sj refers to the individual-spe-

cific deviation from the mean factor level gos.

Model for Transitional Pathways Accounting

for Strategies

The predictive value of social and achievement strategies

for the probability of following a particular pathway was

studied by binary or multinomial logistic regression models

with the membership indicator of a particular transitional

pathway as the dependent variable. As achievement and

social strategies were inter-correlated (Table 1), they were

included as separate predictors.

Since the most frequent distinguishing factor between

the six pathways was the absence of some life event, or the

exceptionally late timing of an event, we also specified a

joint model for the pathways that we called ‘‘postponed’’

(singles with slow career and slow starters). These were

combined to form a postponed group (n = 56). The

remaining four pathways (fast starters, fast partnership and

late parenthood, career and family, and career and

unsteady partnerships) were combined to form a ‘‘non-

postponed’’ group (n = 126).

As an example of the pathway models (described in

Fig. 2; Table 3), the model for the log-odds of belonging to

the postponed versus non-postponed pathway, which

accounts for strategy (social optimism, social withdrawal,

achievement optimism, or task-irrelevant behavior), is of

the form

;postsj ¼ logit P y

postj ¼ 1jgsj

� �n o¼ as þ bsgsj:

Here, ypostj is the membership indicator of the postponed

pathway, and bs the regression coefficient of factor gsj of

strategy s for individual j.

We applied a hierarchical testing procedure to analyze

the model results (Fig. 2). At the first level of the model

hierarchy, the postponed group was contrasted with the

non-postponed group, whereas at the second level of model

hierarchy, testing was carried out within these larger two

groups. Only a few differences existed at the second level

of the model hierarchy. Therefore, in further analyses, the

pathway models were restricted to the first-level models

only, that is, to the models of following either a postponed

or non-postponed pathway to adulthood.

Model for Depressive Symptoms When Accounting

for Pathways

The model for the expected level of depressive symptoms

in 2008, which accounts for the pathway, and indirectly

also for the initial level of depression and the strategies, is

written as

ldep08j ¼ l0 þ d1e;

post

sj :

The parameter l0 is the mean level of depressive

symptoms, e;post

sj the individual- and strategy-specific odds

of following the postponed pathway, and d1 the direct

effect of pathway, also containing the indirect effects of

initial-level depressive symptoms and strategies. This

Table 1 Correlation matrix for factors of achievement and social strategies and depressive symptoms in year 1991 and 2008 for the whole

sample (n = 182)

Variables 1 2 3 4 5

1. Optimism in achievement situations (1991) 1.00

2. Task-avoidance (1991) -.39*** 1.00

3. Social optimism (1991) .66*** -.16 1.00

4. Social withdrawal (1991) -.68*** .21* -.82*** 1.00

5. Depressive symptoms (1991) -.71*** .40*** -.62*** .66*** 1.00

6. Depressives symptoms (2008) -.38*** .37*** -.39*** .38*** .52***

*** p \ .001; ** p \ .01; * p \ .05


123

model is compared with the model of the direct effect of

the initial level of depressive symptoms

ldep08j ¼ l0 þ d2x

dep91j

on the level of depression in 2008, where the parameter d2

is the direct effect of the initial level of depression symp-

toms in 1991, without considering the effect of strategies or

pathways.

The analyses were performed using the Mplus statistical

package (Version 5; Muthen and Muthen 1998–2008).

One-tailed significance testing was utilized for hypothe-

sized associations. The missing at random (MAR)

assumption was used in the analysis. The Little’s MCAR

test (Little 1988) indicated that data were missing com-

pletely at random: v2(24) = 19.12, p [ .05. The parame-

ters of the models were estimated by maximum likelihood

(ML). For the dichotomous pathway indicator, a probit

model with a latent continuous outcome was used. To

account for possible non-normality, a range of values for

the standard errors of the parameters was estimated:

ordinary ML estimates assuming normality, robust ML

estimates, and bias-corrected bootstrap standard errors

without any distributional assumptions (Muthen and

Muthen 1998–2008).

Results

Depressive Symptoms and Achievement and Social

Strategies

The correlation matrix (Table 1) shows that the higher the

level of depressive symptoms was, the lower were success

and social optimism, and the higher were task-avoidance

and social withdrawal.

Achievement and Social Strategies and Transitional

Pathways

Table 2 shows that individuals who followed a postponed

pathway to adulthood (slow starters, singles with slow

career) had the lowest scores in success optimism and

social optimism, and the highest scores in task-avoidance

and social withdrawal. Individual variation in the scores of

achievement and social strategies was typically larger

among those following the postponed pathways than the

non-postponed pathways.

Hierarchical testing of the binary and multinomial

logistic regression models including the indirect effect of

depressive symptoms (1991) was carried out to investigate

whether achievement and social strategies would have

predictive value for the pathways. The odds ratios (OR)

with 95 % confidence intervals are presented in Table 3.

The first test was carried out between the postponed and

non-postponed transitional pathways. The results showed

that individuals with low success and social optimism, and

high task-avoidance and social withdrawal at the beginning

of their studies were more likely to end up following a

postponed rather than a non-postponed pathway.

The results comparing the groups within the postponed

group (Table 3) showed that singles with slow career were

less optimistic both in the achievement and social domains

compared to slow starters. When the groups within the

non-postponed group were compared, individuals on the

career and unstable partnerships pathway were found to be

less socially optimistic and more task-avoidant than indi-

viduals on the other non-postponed pathways.

Transitional Pathways to Adulthood and Subsequent

Depressive Symptoms

The results presented in Table 2 showed that individuals

who followed the postponed pathways to adulthood (i.e.,

slow starters, singles with slow career) showed the highest

level of depressive symptoms both at the beginning and

end of the follow-up. In particular, singles with slow career

had a high level of depressive symptoms; however, the

variance, at both the beginning and end of their university

studies, was also the largest.

In the final step, we investigated whether the initial level

of depressive symptoms would continue to indirectly affect

the level of later depressive symptoms when controlling for

Whole sample (n = 182)

Non-postponed( n = 126)

transitional pathways

Postponed( n = 56)

transitional pathways

Singles withslow career

(n = 22)

Level 1 of hierarcy

Level 2 of hierarcySlow

starters(n = 34)

Faststarters(n = 28)

Career and unstable partner-

ships (n = 28)

Career and family

(n = 43)

Fast partnershipand late parent-hood (n = 27)

Fig. 2 Hierarchy of models in binary and multinomial logistic regression analyses


123

the intermediate effect of achievement and social strate-

gies, and their effect on the realized transitional pathways.

Table 4 shows the unstandardized ML estimates, standard

errors, and 95 % confidence intervals for direct and indi-

rect effects. Direct effects from initial depressive symp-

toms to achievement and social strategies, and from

strategies to postponed pathways, are similar to those

reported earlier. Moreover, the results for direct effects

indicated that following a postponed pathway also pre-

dicted a higher level of depressive symptoms at the end of

the follow-up.

Further, an indirect effect was found from depressive

symptoms via achievement and social strategies to a

postponed pathway. Depressive symptoms reduced indi-

viduals’ success and social optimism, and lowered opti-

mism, which then increased the likelihood of ending up on

a postponed pathway. In turn, depressive symptoms

increased social withdrawal, which then further increased

the likelihood of ending up on a postponed pathway. A

similar but weaker indirect effect was also found for task-

avoidance. Moreover, depressive symptoms decreased

success optimism, which then increased the likelihood of

Table 2 Descriptive statistics of achievement and social strategies and depressive symptoms separately for individuals subsequently following

different pathways

Variables

Success

optimismaTask

avoidanceaSocial

optimismaSocial

withdrawalaDepressive

symptoms

(beginning

of follow-

up)

Depressive

symptoms

(end of

follow-up)

M SD M SD M SD M SD M SD M SD

Transitional pathway

Fast starters (15 %, n = 28) 0.16 0.62 -0.21 0.94 0.03 0.95 0.02 0.84 1.98 0.66 1.96 0.76

Fast partnership and late parenthood (15 %, n = 27) 0.12 0.80 -0.28 0.94 0.11 0.78 -0.01 0.72 1.92 0.67 1.83 0.57

Career and family (24 %, n = 43) 0.22 0.91 0.09 0.84 0.25 0.68 -0.25 0.78 1.92 0.58 1.84 0.58

Career and unstable partnerships (15 %, n = 28) -0.01 0.82 0.26 0.86 -0.03 0.98 0.03 0.92 2.12 0.70 1.96 0.78

Slow starters (19 %, n = 34) -0.16 0.80 0.11 0.87 -0.13 0.89 0.11 1.03 2.06 0.64 1.83 0.55

Singles with slow career (12 %, n = 22) -0.79 1.02 0.39 0.89 -0.67 1.25 0.48 1.07 2.57 0.70 2.62 0.84

a Factor scores

Table 3 Hierarchical likelihood ratio (LR) tests and odds ratios with 95 % confidence intervals for binary and multinomial pathway models

separately for achievement and social strategies adjusted for depressive symptoms in 1991

Comparison Success optimism

OR [95 % CI]

Task-avoidance

OR [95 % CI]

Social optimism

OR [95 % CI]

Social withdrawal

OR [95 % CI]

Level 1 of model hierarchy

Postponed versus non-postponed pathways 0.15*** [0.04, 0.53] 1.62* [0.94, 2.80] 0.35*** [0.17, 0.72] 1.50** [1.05, 2.14]

Level 2 of model hierarchy

Postponed pathways

Singles with slow career versus slow starters 0.13* [0.03, 0.66] 1.99 [0.71, 5.57] 0.33? [0.10, 1.09] 2.32 [0.84, 6.40]

Non-postponed pathways

Fast starters versus career and family 0.92 [0.22, 3.79] 0.58 [0.25, 1.34] 0.53 [0.17, 1.70] 2.15 [0.75, 6.14]

Fast partnership and late parenthood versus career

and family

0.77 [0.17, 3.59] 0.49 [0.21, 1.14] 0.68 [0.22, 205] 1.99 [0.66, 6.00]

Career and unstable partnerships versus career and

family

0.29 [0.07, 1.31] 1.47 [0.67, 3.21] 0.38? [0.12, 1.16] 2.55 [0.81, 7.99]

Fast starters versus fast partnership and late

parenthood

1.19 [0.26, 5.47] 1.18 [0.47, 2.95] 0.79 [0.22, 280] 1.08 [0.35, 3.29]

Career and unstable partnerships versus fast

partnership and late parenthood

0.38 [0.07, 2.08] 2.98* [1.17, 7.55] 0.56 [0.16, 1.90] 1.28 [0.42, 3.93]

Career and unstable partnerships versus fast starters 0.32 [0.07, 1.50] 2.52* [1.08, 6.30] 0.71 [0.20, 2.51] 1.19 [0.36, 3.97]

*** p \ .001; ** p \ .01; * p \ .05; ? p \ .10 (one-tailed test for hypothesized associations)


123

following a postponed pathway, in turn increasing later

depressive symptoms. Also, initial depressive symptoms

had an indirect effect via low social optimism and with-

drawal, and via a postponed pathway, to later depressive

symptoms. Similarly, there was an indirect effect from

achievement and social strategies (except task-avoidance),

via a postponed pathway, to depressive symptoms.

Discussion

In line with the life-span model of motivation (Dietrich

et al. 2012; Cantor and Langston 1989), the present study

examined, in a sample of individuals who were university

students at baseline, the extent to which depressive

symptoms and ways of dealing with different challenges

Table 4 Unstandardized estimates (Est.), standard errors (SE), and confidence intervals (95 % CI) for direct and indirect effects to predict

pathways and subsequent depressive symptoms with maximum likelihood (ML) and bias-corrected bootstrap (BC-bootstrap)

Est. ML SE Bias-corrected

bootstrap SE

Bias-corrected

bootstrap 95 %CI

Success optimism

Direct effects

Depr. symptoms 1991 ? success opt. 1991 -0.414*** 0.055 0.057 [- 0.545, -0.309]

Success opt. 1991 ? postponed path -0.376*** 0.100 0.117 [- 0.631, -0.188]

Postponed path ? depr. symptoms 2008 0.260** 0.114 0.123 [0.015, 0.511]

Indirect effects

Depr. symptoms 1991 ? … ? postponed path 0.156*** 0.040 0.042 [0.079, 0.244]

Success opt. 1991 ? … ? depr. symptoms 2008 -0.098* 0.050 0.063 [- 0.263, -0.005]

Depr. symptoms 1991 ? …. ? depr. symptoms 2008 0.041** 0.021 0.026 [0.003, 0.110]

Task-avoidance

Direct effects

Depr. symptoms 1991 ? task-avoid. 1991 0.415*** 0.073 0.071 [0.297, 0.573]

Task-avoid. 1991 ? postponed path. 0.154* 0.083 0.094 [- 0.016, 0.349]

Postponed path. ? depr. symptoms 2008 0.260** 0.114 0.123 [0.015, 0.511]

Indirect effects

Depr. symptoms 1991 ? … ? postponed path 0.064* 0.035 0.039 [- 0.004, 0.150]

Task-avoid. 1991 ? … ? depr. symptoms 2008 0.040 0.028 0.041 [- 0.001, 0.148]

Depr. symptoms 1991 ? … ? depr. symptoms 2008 0.017 0.012 0.017 [0.000, 0.062]

Social optimism

Direct effects

Depr. symptoms 1991 ? social opt. 1991 -0.488*** 0.056 0.069 [- 0.620, -0.344]

Social opt. 1991 ? postponed path. -0.225*** 0.071 0.073 [- 0.375, -0.090]


Indirect effects

Depr. symptoms 1991 ? … ? postponed path 0.110*** 0.036 0.038 [0.042, 0.186]

Social opt. 1991 ? … ? depr. symptoms 2008 -0.059* 0.032 0.040 [- 0.162, -0.004]

Depr. symptoms 1991 ? … ? depr. symptoms 2008 0.029* 0.016 0.021 [0.003, 0.095]

Social withdrawal

Direct effects

Depr. symptoms 1991 ? social withdr. 1991 0.550*** 0.076 0.084 [0.395, 0.710]

Social withdr. 1991 ? postponed path 0.166** 0.067 0.074 [0.014, 0.298]


Indirect effects

Depr. symptoms 1991 ? … ? postponed path. 0.091** 0.037 0.042 [0.012, 0.176]

Social withdr. 1991 ? … ? depr. symptoms 2008 0.043* 0.026 0.034 [0.000, 0.136]

Depr. symptoms 1991 ? … ? depr. symptoms 2008 0.024* 0.014 0.020 [0.001, 0.084]

ML estimates of standard estimates were smallest and BC-bootstrap standard errors largest, whereas robust ML estimates of standard errors (not

shown in table) were between these two

*** p \ .001; ** p \ .01; * p \ .05(one-tailed test for hypothesized indirect effects)


123

and problems in achievement and interpersonal situations

function as the antecedents of pathways to adulthood, and

the extent to which, in turn, ending up on particular path-

ways has consequences for individuals’ subsequent

depressive symptoms. The results of the 18-year follow-up

showed that having depressive symptoms at the beginning

of studies was with mean age at beginning of follow-up

that was associated with pessimistic and avoidant strategies

in both achievement and social situations, which further

predicted postponed pathways later on. Moreover, the

pathways followed in the transition to adulthood contrib-

uted to subsequent changes in depressive symptoms.

Our results showed, first, that students deploying strat-

egies that were characterized by pessimism, avoidance, and

withdrawal in both achievement and social situations were

likely to enter on a postponed pathway (slow starters,

singles with slow career) during early adulthood. In turn,

when they evidenced strategies that were typified by opti-

mism and task-focused behavior, they were likely to enter a

non-postponed pathway (fast starters, fast partnership and

late parenthood, career and family, and career and

unsteady partnerships), thereby supporting H2. This result

is in accordance with the notion that the ways in which

individuals tackle the major challenges they face in their

lives have consequences for their subsequent life-span

development (Nurmi et al. 1996). Our results showed fur-

ther that strategies in both the achievement and social life

domains predicted developmental pathways: the use of

maladaptive strategies leads to difficulties in the achieve-

ment of key developmental tasks and transitions later on

(Nurmi et al. 1996). As in the present study, we examined

developmental pathways simultaneously in different life

domains, and our results are also in line with the idea of

developmental cascades, presented by Masten et al. (2005),

suggesting that functioning in one domain cascades into

other life domains. However, this was true in our study

only for some young adults, as others showed more

domain-specific trajectories.

The more detailed analysis of the antecedents of dif-

ferent pathways to adulthood showed that singles with slow

career showed less optimism in both achievement and

social life at the start of their studies than slow starters.

This result suggests that support from a partner plays an

important role in dealing with various role transitions and

demands (Salmela-Aro et al. 2010). In the non-postponed

group, the only subgroup that differed in their transition

pathway comprised those on the career and unstable

partnership pathway: these individuals showed less social

optimism and more task-avoidance at the beginning of their

studies than individuals from the other non-postponed

pathways. This result suggests that pessimism and the

inability to use adaptive strategies in social situations lead

to problems in transitions in interpersonal domains (Nurmi

et al. 1996).

Also, individuals’ lack of well-being was found to have

consequences for the trajectories they embarked on during

adulthood. The results showed that individuals reporting

depressive symptoms in the beginning of their studies

followed postponed pathways later on, thereby supporting

H3. This result suggests that depression during the transi-

tion to adulthood curtails the attainment of the occupational

and interpersonal developmental tasks appropriate for full

adult status (Reinherz et al. 1999). For example, Schulen-

berg et al. (2004) showed that the successful tackling of

developmental tasks was closely tied to high levels of well-

being.

The results showed further that depressive symptoms not

only contributed to particular pathways but that these

pathways also predicted increases in later depressive

symptomatology, even after controlling for the initial level

of depression. This result is in line with the literature on

success in dealing with developmental role transitions

(Havighurst 1948; Salmela-Aro 2009): achieving age-gra-

ded developmental tasks on time is adaptive and contributes

to happiness and success with later tasks and satisfaction

with life, while failure leads to unhappiness and depressive

symptoms (Havighurst 1948; Salmela-Aro et al. 2012). This

supports the notion that developmental progression and the

mastery of age-specific role transitions are linked to

increased levels of subjective well-being and low symp-

tomatology (Schulenberg et al. 2004). The more success

and less stalling in the domains of work and romantic

involvement, the greater the likelihood of maintaining high

levels of well-being across the transitions (Schulenberg

et al. 2004). Moreover, it might be that the initially

depressed who were not later successful may have already

been having difficulties in the beginning of their studies,

perhaps related to their competence or other problems.

Overall, our results revealed a pattern of cumulative

impacts over young adulthood (Masten et al. 2005).

Depressive symptoms reduced individuals’ success and

social optimism, and increased their social withdrawal,

which then increased the likelihood of ending up on a

postponed pathway. Moreover, initial depressive symptoms

had an indirect effect via low social optimism and high

social withdrawal, and via postponed pathways to later

depressive symptoms. Similarly, the lower the success and

social optimism and the higher the social withdrawal, the

more likely individuals were to follow postponed path-

ways, which then exacerbated their later depressive

symptoms. These results suggest that low well-being,

subsequent dysfunctional strategies, and postponed devel-

opmental pathways form complex cumulative patterns that

may become self-realizing traps in the longer run.


123

Our study has some limitations that need to be consid-

ered when attempting to interpret the results. First, the

sample is not a random sample, as it was heavily weighted

toward women and students in the humanities and social

sciences. This may have influenced the findings, and the

results might have been different for males and students in

other fields such as medical schools and engineering.

Second, the sample consisted of Finnish university stu-

dents. Several features of Finnish universities, such as a

higher age at university entry, tuition-free studies, and the

difficulty in gaining admission, may mean that some of the

results would have been different in countries with a dif-

ferent system. Third, depressive symptoms and achieve-

ment and social strategies were measured at the same time

at the beginning of the study, which does not permit one to

be certain about direction of the effects between the two

variables. However, because depressive symptoms were

our main outcome, we considered it important to account

for initial depressive symptoms in the analyses. Finally, the

present sample was also relatively small, which may mean

that some of the analyses have limited power.

The results suggest that experiencing depressive symp-

toms during young adulthood, when individuals face many

life transitions simultaneously, increases the use of pessi-

mistic and avoidant strategies in both achievement and social

situations, which then leads these individuals to postpone

dealing with key life transitions. Such postponed pathways in

turn contribute to an increase in depressive symptoms.

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